Modelling farmers decisions on crop sequences and crop on-farm location: from arable farms to marketgardeners management decisions

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1 The XIth ESA Congress The Scientific International Week around Agronomy S : Farm scale design of cropping systems Modelling farmers decisions on crop sequences and crop on-farm location: from arable farms to marketgardeners management decisions Marie MAWOIS, Marianne LE BAIL, Mireille NAVARRETE, Christine AUBRY Montpellier, September 1st,

2 INTRODUCTION Analysing to what extent farmers may modify their cropping systems, at farm and territorial level? Understand and model the farmers decisions making process - Simple modules describing the modalities and dates of cultural practices (Jones et al., More complex decision models formulating a management module as a set of decision rules (Keating et al., 2003; Cros et al., 2004; Chatelin et al., Global decision sub system that mimics farmer s decision making processes (Navarrete and LeBail 2007; LeGal et al.,

3 Principes d analyse de la localisation des cultures sur le PROBLEM territoire de l EA The model of decision rules regarding crop location on farm territory (Maxime and al., 1995; Aubry and al. 1998; Aubry and Michel, 2006 Total surface area Plot characteristics Crop requirement Fram s productive resources Crop i Cultivable area Potential preceding crops Perception of risks Exogeneous constraints (regulations, marketing Size of the FIELD BLOCK Return time From arable farms to market-gardeners management decisions? 3

4 PROBLEM From arable farms to market-gardeners management decisions (1 Short cycle lengths (20 to 120 days : several successive cycles on the same plot in a single year (2 Very labour intensive production (manual labour (3 Very perishable products: the freshness is a major quality criteria e.g. the time elapsed between lettuce harvest and sale cannot exceed 2 days (4 Large range of crops 4

5 Principes d analyse de la localisation des cultures sur le PROBLEM territoire de l EA The model of decision rules regarding crop location on farm territory (Maxime and al., 1995; Aubry and al. 1998; Aubry and Michel, 2006 Total surface area Plot characteristics Crop requirement Fram s productive resources Crop i Cultivable area Period for cultivation Length of cycle Length of intercrop period Exogeneous constraints (regulations, marketing Number of cycles Developped Size of the FIELD surface BLOCK area Potential preceding crops Return time Perception of risks Sum of surfaces cultivated in a crop during the various cycles SALADPLAN : Model of the decision-making process in lettuce and endive cropping (Navarrete and Le Bail,

6 MATERIALS ET METHODS Use of SALADPLAN for market garden crops in urban agriculture under tropical climate? Mahajanga, secondary city of Madagascar inhabitants, high population growing rate (>3%/yr dominance of leafy vegetable in urban agriculture How market-garden farmers can meet this increasing urban demand in leafy vegetables? Increasing the cultivated surface areas? 6

7 MATERIALS ET METHODS Some additional specificities (1 A high diversity of leafy vegetables (2 An instability of the cultivated area on farms inside a season LVsc (<30 days : traditional short cycle leafy vegetables (Fotsitaho, Anatsonga, Petsaï Lettuce (30-45 days LVlc (3-5 months : traditional long cycle leafy vegetables (mafanes, morelles (3 Specific technical management units Lowland Lakeside Diguettes Ancien puits Nouveau puits a Retreat of water - Lac Progression des cultures b c Bloc parcellaire Puits Bloc parcellaire - (4 Tight relationships with retailers: - Ask for a diversity of LV - Harvest themselves 7

8 MATERIALS ET METHODS Data acquisition In depth surveys on 11 farms during two campaigns (2006 and Recording of the farm territory (field pattern scheme - Surveys on the crop locations, the crop sequences rules and the determinants of these choices - Observations to record the number of plot planted with each leafy vegetable at the date of the visit and the cultural practices of the period (every 10 days - Relationships with retailers Specific surveys with retailers - Establishment of their farmer s network - Choices of various products on the farms, quantity for each product and price setting and their evolution during the season - The logistic of transport from farm territory to urban markets - The modalities of deals and their potential influence on cultural practices. 8

9 Water dynamic (Environment Total surface area (S_tot Land access conditions The Leafy vegetables Land Use (LYLU conceptual model Maximum exploitable surface area (S_max Labour force Effective exploitable surface area (S_eff Plot Farm s productive resource Crop characteristics (labour, Water requirements? Crop requirements Environment (Soil, climate Maximum period suitable for crop k (P_max k Market & retailers Finance Effective period suitable for each crop (P_eff k Cultivable area for each crop (A_cult k A_cult k x P_eff k Market Retailers Crops hierarchy and diversity Land access conditions Blocks and Periods for each crop (Bi x Pj Crop requirements Environment (Soil, climate Retailers (Harvest duration Labour force Retailers (First harvest date Input Length of cycle (LC k Length of Intercrop period (IC Effective length of cycle (LC_eff k Maximum number of cycle per blocks (NC_max k Maximum developped surface per Block (S_dev_max k Effective number of cycle per Block (NC_eff k EFFECTIVE DEVELOPPPED SURFACE PER 9BLOCK (S_dev k

10 1. Une évolution de la surface exploitable : liée à la 1. The evolution of the exploitable surface area dynamique de l eau Maximum exploitable surface area (S_max : set of surface areas sufficiently dried out for small-plots to be set up and potentially irrigated ( S_tot f (water dynamics Number of small-plots Lowland S_max S_tot Number of small-plots Lakeside S_max S_tot 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/4 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/10 9/11 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/10 9/11 BUT S_max is not always used by farmers 10

11 1. Une évolution de la surface exploitable : liée à la 1. The evolution of the exploitable surface area dynamique de l eau Surface area effectively exploitable (S_eff : set of surface areas established with small-plots ( S_max f (S_max and labour force Manual labour - establishment or renovation of wells - establishment of plant nurseries - establishment of small-plots (3 / day / pers Example of Ad4 farm Lowland, 1670 m² (89 small plots, 2 permanents labour and 1 temporary Service of cartography Google Earth ( Number of small-plots /4 S_max S_eff S_tot 9/5 9/6 9/7 9/8 9/9 9/10 9/11 11

12 Water dynamic (Environment Labour force Total surface area (S_tot Land access conditions Maximum exploitable surface area (S_max Effective exploitable surface area (S_eff Plot Farm s productive resource Crop characteristics (labour, Water requirements The Leafy vegetables Land Use (LYLU conceptual model? Crop requirements Environment (Soil, climate Maximum period suitable for crop k (P_max k Market & retailers Finance Effective period suitable for each crop (P_eff k Cultivable area for each crop (A_cult k A_cult k x P_eff k Market Retailers Crops hierarchy and diversity Land access conditions Blocks and Periods for each crop (Bi x Pj Crop requirements Environment (Soil, climate Retailers (Harvest duration Labour force Retailers (First harvest date Input Length of cycle (LC k Length of Intercrop period (IC Effective length of cycle (LC_eff k Maximum number of cycle per blocks (NC_max k Maximum developped surface per Block (S_dev_max k Effective number of cycle per Block (NC_eff k 12 Effective developped surface per block (S_dev k

13 1. Une évolution de la surface exploitable : liée à la 2. Maximum and effective period for each crop cultivation dynamique de l eau Salad High temperatures and beginning of rainfalls P_max P_eff Fall of the temperature and soils dry out or Tourist season f (market and retailers LVsc P_max P_eff 13

14 Water dynamic (Environment Total surface area (S_tot Land access conditions The Leafy vegetables Land Use (LYLU conceptual model Maximum exploitable surface area (S_max Labour force Crop requirements Environment (Soil, climate Effective exploitable surface area (S_eff Plot Farm s productive resource Crop characteristics (labour, Water requirements Maximum period suitable for crop k (P_max k Market & retailers Finance Effective period suitable for each crop (P_eff k Cultivable area for each crop (A_cult k A_cult k x P_eff k Market Retailers Crops hierarchy and diversity Land access conditions Blocks and Periods for each crop (Bi x Pj Crop requirements Environment (Soil, climate Retailers (Harvest duration Labour force Retailers (First harvest date Input Length of cycle (LC k Maximum number of cycle per blocks (NC_max k Maximum developped surface per Block (S_dev_max k? Length of Intercrop period (IC Effective length of cycle (LC_eff k Room for manœuvre? Effective number of cycle per Block (NC_eff k 14 Effective developped surface per block (S_dev k

15 CONCLUSION Models of decision rules regarding crop location on farm territory Model of the farmer s decision-making process allowing to determine the room for manoeuvre and to simulate the effects of innovations Initial model Arable farms in temperate cimate Cultivable area Evolution in space and time Potential preceding crops Crop return time SALADPLAN Protected market-gardening in temperate climate Number of cycles (per plot and year Number of crop types Developped surface area Period for crop cultivation LYLU Market-gardening in tropical climate Small-plots (technical management unit S_tot, S_max and S_eff (spatiotemporal evolution Relationships with retailers? Better describing farmers' decisions and quantify their room for manoeuvre Preparing the building of a computer model to simulate alternative land uses in these farms 15

16 Thanks Misaotra Betsaka! 16

17 17

18 MATERIEL ET METHODE Le dispositif Protocole d enquêtes et d observations 11 EA enquêtées sur deux campagnes (2006 et Cartographie manuelle du parcellaire de l EA - Enquête sur les systèmes de culture : règles de localisation et successions - Observations des localisations effectives lors de passages réguliers (/ 10 jours - Enquêtes sur les relations avec les collectrices Enquêtes sur les relations entre agriculteurs et collectrices Traitement des données Nombre de planches Variables de surfaces intégrées : q i= p V i avec p= 9 avril et q = 30 novembre 9 avr Saison culturale 30 nov 18

19 3. Quelles mdm pour augmenter les surfaces cultivées? Quantification des marges de manoeuvre Calcul de ratios entre les différentes variables du modèle Capacités à lever les facteurs limitants identifiés - A l échelle de l EA (travail, relations PMM - A l échelle du territoire (travail, relations PMM, eau et foncier 19

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