WELCOME. Hope you enjoy it. SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY Editor-in-chief Kuyaş Örs. Editor Sedef Güneş. Proofreading Cüneyt Tabanoğlu

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3 SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 EDITORIAL 1 SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 Editorinchief Kuyaş Örs Editor Sedef Güneş Proofreading Cüneyt Tabanoğlu WELCOME Advertising sales manager Eda Ünsalan Aytemur Corporate communication director Mürüvvet Can Publisher Sirkus Publishing Itır Sok. 3/2 Nişantaşı, Şişli, Istanbul Printer Ofset Yapımevi Yahya Kemal Mah. Şair Sok. 4 Kağıthane, Istanbul All or some of the content (texts or images) cannot be used without written permission of Depo Publishing. Depo Publishing is not responsible for the accuracy of the information provided by the contributors. The real estate market in Turkey, which is the main driver of the economy, still offers a favorable climate for new investments, thanks to its strong demographics and positive longterm outlook. Turkey has attracted USD 6. 8 billion of FDI in H1 2014, a 28% increase over the same period a year ago, according to The Central Bank of Turkey. In June 2014 alone, FDI inflow to Turkey reached EUR 990 million, 416 million of which went into real estate. Additionally, Turkey s commercial real estate market has upheld its reputation as one of the strongest performers in Europe, with growth following an upward trajectory spurred on in particular by a blossoming retail sector, according to the latest report released by BMI. Presenting the latest news and professional reviews as well as index pages, this guide you are now holding in your hands attempts not only to reveal current conditions of the retail industry in Turkey, but also to provide an insight for global investors. Hope you enjoy it. Further information Networking Turkey info@networkingturkey.net Publishing date November 2014

4 2 CONTENTS SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY NEWS 10 OUTLOOK 10 A HIGHLY DEVELOPED, VIBRANT AND ATTRACTIVE MARKET, Nihat Sandıkçıoğlu Turkish shopping center industry, one of the most vibrant industries of Turkish economy, is still attracting most of the international shopping center investors. 12 REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK: LATEST DEVELOPMENTS, NEW INSIGHTS AND PROSPECTS, I.Gökşin Durusoy Having liquidated some of its portfolio assets to rejuvenate its real estate development works, Akiş REIT made new inroads in the urban transformation area as well as in high street retail properties last year. 22 WHO S WHO 23 ÆRIUM 24 AVM PARTNERS 26 CEFIC 27 CORIO TURKEY 28 COUNCIL OF SHOPPING CENTERS TURKEY 29 ESAS PROPERTIES 30 FORM CENTRAL AIR CONDITIONING 32 METRO PROPERTIES TURKEY 33 MULTI TURKEY 34 PALLADIUM SHOPPING CENTER ANTAKYA 35 PALLADIUM SHOPPING CENTER ATAŞEHIR 36 TESCO KIPA 38 INDEX 14 SEEING THE BIG PICTURE, Nils Lueken In light of growing competition, cost pressure and escalation of complexity in core business, more and more firms, investment companies and state property owners in Turkey are farming out their building management and employing external real estate specialists to look after their property portfolio. 16 CONSUMER FINANCE, REAL ESTATE FUNDAMENTALS AND SHOPPING CENTER INDUSTRY IN TURKEY, Dr. Yener Coşkun Stakeholders in shopping center industry may carefully analyze in their decision making both positive longterm outlook of Turkey and also trends in consumer finance and real estate market fundamentals with some region specific risks. 20 LIBERAL APPROACH FOR FOREIGN CURRENCY RENTALS: PROVISIONS OF TURKISH LAW FOR OBLIGATIONS REGARDING RENT INCREASES, Serkan Gül Under the new law, rental increases in Turkish Lira may not exceed the PPI and no increases are allowed for rents in foreign currency.

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6 4 NEWS SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 TURKEY ATTRACTED USD 5.3 BILLION OF FDI IN H1 Turkey has attracted USD 6.8 billion of foreign direct investment (FDI) in the first half of 2014, a 28% increase over the same period a year ago, according to the data The Central Bank of Turkey revealed. In June alone, FDI inflow to Turkey reached 990 million, EUR 416 million of which went into real estate. Wholesale and retail trade was the second most popular investment market, followed by chemical manufacturing, chemical products and pharmaceuticals. The largest foreign investor in June was the UK, with USD 464 million, while the Netherlands came in second at USD 149 million. The total FDI to Turkey was USD 12.9 billion in CONFIDENCE INDEX UP IN RETAIL, DOWN IN CONSTRUCTION AND SERVICE SECTORS The real sector confidence index has seen a slight increase, but the construction and service sectors showed a drop in October, according to the latest report released by the Turkish Statistics Institute (TurkStat). According to the TurkStat data, the seasonally adjusted confidence index for the retail sector rose by 0.1%, reaching in October. However, the adjusted confidence index for the construction sector decreased by 2.4%, to 81.6 in October. The figure was 83.6 points in September. Likewise, the service sector index dropped by 1.1% from 99.5 to 98.3 in the same period. The report notes that the retail trade confidence index has increased since there was a rise in the number of managers assessing their business activity as improved over the past three months, and the current volume of stock as below the seasonal normal. Nonetheless, the decrease in the service sector confidence index is linked to the decreased number of managers that evaluate their business situation over the last three months as improved, and have a pessimistic outlook regarding future demand for their products in the next three months. According to the report, the drop in the construction confidence index stemmed from a decrease in the number of managers who evaluated their current overall order books as above the seasonal norm and who expect an increase in the employment rate over the next three months. ANADOLU GROUP OFFERS TRY 1.8 BILLION FOR MIGROS Turkey s Anadolu Group has offered TRY 1.8 billion to buy a 40.25% stake in local supermarket giant Migros, marking a new growth area for the conglomerate and lifting the retailer s shares more than 10%. We see Migros as an enterprise that could grow our business in Turkey and in countries in the region. This initiative should be understood as a growth strategy for a new sector, Tuncay Özilhan, chairman of Anadolu Group, told. Özilhan also said his company would finance some of Migros s debts in case of an acquisition. He also noted Anadolu s bid for a partnership in controlling stakes. The supermarket chain has 1,129 stores across Turkey and holds a 14% market share. Londonbased BC Partners, a private equity group that owns about 80% of Migros, had entered into informal negotiations to sell the chain over the years. However, a slowdown in the Turkish economy and fall in value of the lira against the dollar made it difficult. BC Partners bought Migros in 2008 for USD 3.25 billion with the help of Turkey s Turkven and Italy s DeA Capital, beating a joint bid by their larger rival Blackstone and the Croatian food group Agrokor.

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8 6 NEWS SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 TURKEY S COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE MARKET UPHOLDS ITS REPUTATION According to the latest report released by Business Monitor International, Turkey s commercial real estate market has upheld its reputation as of the strongest performer in Europe, with growth following an upward trajectory spurred on in particular by a blossoming retail sector. The industrial segment continues to underperform in terms of rent, yields and construction growth, but with growth expected in exports there is hope that the subsector can return to growth. With a focus on the two principal cities of Istanbul and Ankara, the report covers the commercial real estate market s performance in terms of rates and yields, with a focus on office, retail and industrial real estate. Although the Turkish economy no longer enjoys the high levels of GDP growth it maintained up until the eurozone crisis, the economic situation remains stable, and we forecast 3.2% growth over the Greater demand for Western brands has encouraged foreign retailers to enter the market, which is stimulating retail development and buoying rental rates, particularly in Ankara and Istanbul. The office sector has also performed well. The government is hoping that Istanbul will become a global financial hub, and developments around this have spurred the current development of around 800,000 m 2 of office space in the city. Such development is sorely needed, as Istanbul s central business district has a vacancy rate of less than 1.0%. Industrial real estate, however, will continue to struggle in the short term. There is some cause for optimism as export growth is forecast into 2015, especially with regards to textiles and jewellery. Export of textiles grew by 8% to USD 17.4 billion in 2013, according to data from Turkish Clothing Manufacturers Association. This has prompted the government to draft plans to establish a logistics centre for textiles, apparel and leather. METRO GROUP SELLS REAL TURKEY TO BEĞENDIK INC. Metro Group has signed an agreement with Beğendik Inc. of Turkey about the divestment of Real s Turkish operations. With this move, Real will fully focus on the development of its business in Germany. It was agreed not to disclose the purchase price. Turkey remains an important focus country for Metro Group s other sales lines Metro Cash & Carry and Media Saturn. The divestment of Real Turkey to Beğendik Inc. covers all twelve hypermarkets and the headquarters. Real Turkey generated sales of USD 256 million in financial year 2012/13 and employs a workforce of around 1,800 employees. ISTANBUL CHAMBER OF INDUSTRY TO SELL ODAKULE Istanbul Chamber of Industry (İSO) is planning to sell one of the largest buildings with 15,180 m² size within Beyoğlu district, where it is located on Istiklal Avenue, one of the key retail streets in Istanbul. The rights of superficies of the building called Odakule will be transferred for 33 years by a tender. The tender is expected to be held in December in Istanbul. Odakule is one of the highest buildings located within Beyoğlu district. The building has a frontal view of Istiklal Avenue and is a very popular district of Istanbul, visited by nearly 2 million pedestrians daily. Shops, stores, boutique hotels, theatres, movie houses, schools, consulates, foreign culture centers, art galleries also occupy the street. It is a 23storey building occupied by hotel, office and retail mixeduse real estate investors, and has a view to the ancient Golden Horn and to the historical peninsula.

9 FUN AROUND THE CLOCK! Pilates after shopping or shopping after pilates? How about enjoying a great concert after your cooking course? Akbatı Shopping Mall there is life inside, around the clock! There is life inside. Esenyurt, İstanbul / Türkiye (212)

10 8 NEWS SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 GIC TO ACQUIRE ABOVE 20% STAKE IN RÖNESANS REAL ESTATE Singaporean sovereign wealth fund GIC is paying EUR 250 million to acquire above 20% shareholding in Turkey s Renaissance Real Estate Investment, the commercial real estate development and investment arm of Rönesans Holding, and strategically focusing on commercial real estate investments. The agreement takes the form of a primary rights issue, whereby GIC will inject EUR 250 million into Rönesans Real Estate to fund acquisitions and development of new projects in Turkey. The new capital will reinforce Rönesans Real Estate s foothold as a leader in Turkish commercial real estate market and allow for future expansion of its business. As part of the transaction, GIC will be granted representation on the board of directors of Rönesans Real Estate to participate in the strategic direction of the company. According to Dr. Erman Ilıcak, Chairman of Rönesans Holding, This partnership further bolsters our relationship with one of the most reputable longterm global investors in the real estate industry. Following three previous joint venture transactions at the level of individual projects, we are very pleased to have GIC now on board in RGY at the platform level as well. We look forward to solidifying RGY s presence in Turkish commercial real estate development together with GIC s collaboration. According to Chris Morrish, Regional Head of GIC Real Estate for Europe, We are pleased to be making our first corporate real estate investment in Turkey, by taking a minority ownership position in Rönesans, one of the most reputable property developers and investors in Turkey. As a longterm investor, we are confident that Turkey will continue to grow and present good investment opportunities. Since 2012, Rönesans Real Estate and GIC have formed 50:50 joint ventures in shopping centers Optimum Istanbul, Optimum Ankara and Optimum Izmir. The completion of the transaction is expected in the Q4 of 2014 subject to regulatory approvals. Rönesans Real Estate currently holds 25 properties in the portfolio, of which 12 incomegenerating, 8 under development and 5 in land bank, to cover more than 540,000 m 2 of GLA as of end of 2014 across operational assets in total. Optimum Outlet Shopping Center by Rönesans

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12 10 OUTLOOK SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 A HIGHLY DEVELOPED, VIBRANT AND ATTRACTIVE MARKET Turkish shopping center industry, one of the most vibrant industries of Turkish economy, is still attracting most of the international shopping center investors. Nihat Sandıkçıoğlu Secretary General, Council of Shopping Centers Turkey Pioneered the world s first shopping center, the 550yearold Grand Bazaar, Turkey has given some of the best examples of modern shopping centers since The country has developed a great retail market with 338 shopping centers, offering 9.7 million m ² of GLA, as of today. By the end of 2014, the market is expected to reach 345 shopping centers with significant developments, totalling around 9.9 million m ² of GLA. The shopping center industry in Turkey has grown significantly in the last 10 years with numerous prime developments. Outstandingly wellperforming shopping centers by both local and international investors, some of which set the best examples throughout the world, have awarded by international institutions such as ICSC. These achievements led by the competition between local and international developers and shopping center managers have uplifted the overall performance of the shopping center industry. In recent years, the industry has usually drawn an upward trend in terms of investors, tenants, and consumers satisfaction. Turkish shopping center industry, one of the most vibrant industries of Turkish economy, is still attracting most of the international shopping center investors. The shopping center industry continues to expand its growth in Turkey. Density of shopping centers in many provinces, particularly in certain districts is already initiating discussions. However, there is still enough space for new developments in some provinces and certain locations, which are attracting investors. Today only 57 (out of 81) cities have shopping centers yet and overall GLA distribution or 126 m ² per 1,000 population indicates the high investment potential. Besides, 173 of the existing shopping centers are offering more than a GLA of 20,000 m ², which is 81% of the total GLA. New developments, which are already launched or under construction, are mostly mixeduse projects or they are usually involving theme parks. Additionally, some of the existing shopping centers have already started renovations in terms of both concept and tenant mix, while a few projects have been failing. 12,000,000 10,000,000 8,000,000 6,000,000 4,000,000 2,000,000 0 Shopping Center Development (GLA m²)

13 SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 OUTLOOK 11 Shopping centers in large cities are competing with each other and concentrating on various marketing strategies for not only customer retention but also for differentiation. Campaigns, concerts, fashion shows and other events are being held in centers in order to increase sales. Indeed, providing better service with such competitive marketing strategies is crucial to survive the centers. Showing a significant growth in recent years, online sales are now the biggest competitor for shopping centers. Interacting strong with social media, ecommerce web sites are increasing their revenues rapidly and growing with doortodoor delivery and return policy. Ecommerce sector is expected to grow around 64% in five years, and Clicks vs. Bricks is one of the biggest discussion topics in the world. Increasing online sales of retail brands own seem as a serious threat for shopping centers. However, main threats are noname brands. Quality standards, warranties, and customer satisfaction will be the most important criterions for retailers operating in the centers. Not only selling products but also customer experience marketing will be the strong side of the shopping centers. All of these topics mentioned above will be discussed in Shopping Centers Conference, by Council of Shopping Centers Turkey to be held in Wyndham Grand Hotel on March 05, 2015.

14 12 OUTLOOK SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY OUTLOOK: LATEST DEVELOPMENTS, NEW INSIGHTS AND PROSPECTS Having liquidated some of its portfolio assets to rejuvenate its real estate development works, Akiş REIT made new inroads in the urban transformation area as well as in high street retail properties last year. I.Gökşin Durusoy Akiş REIT Member of the Board of Directors and General Manager Real estate continues to be a preferred long term investment vehicle both for the purposes of personal residential use and for investment needs. Pinned at the center of economic and social development, the real estate industry presents a framework for lifestyle transformation with the living areas created. Real estate industry is expanding in size thanks to the new developing areas in cities. New centers continually emerge on the outskirts of the city as urban population gets cramped in dense areas. Real estate assets diversify along with the living requirements of different age and social profiles. In the real estate business, we are now entering an era where cities are more prominent than rural areas. According to PWC s Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe report, the pinnacle of urbanization will continue through Cities in rapidly growing Asia, Africa, Middle East and Latin America will flourish. The developed Western world will also continue to urbanize, albeit at a slower pace. With the year 2020 closing in, the competition among cities will be very hot. As needs get differentiated in new cities which boast active lifestyles, real estate will bring about novel living area concepts. Thereby successful projects will be borne to organizations that will manifest the strategies meeting the future. It is safe to say that the audience the industry serves today is the information age population that benefits from the plethora of technology. In other words, we live in an era where our use of technology affects our real estate preferences. In the times ahead, as life continues to hasten its pace, living areas will have to keep up with this as well. For the working people who connect through digital networks, the need for a physical office space will be reduced. Features of ecoefficient structures will continually improve along with the technological advances. Organizations that wish to cement their grip on the real estate business will have to heed all such hasty developments. (As different players, like retailers, hotels and shopping centers enter the market beside residences and offices, they will have to establish solid differentiation strategies in this respect.) TURKEY HAS A GREAT POTENTIAL FOR THE REAL ESTATE INDUSTRY Owing to its young and rapidly growing population, Turkey presents a favorable climate for the sustainable growth of real estate industry. In addition to its economic stability, the steady growth of purchasing power helps to promote the real estate projects in the country.

15 SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 OUTLOOK 13 The real estate industry, which is one of the most dynamic sectors in Turkey, went through a great transformation within the last decade and continued to grow. Foreign appetite has turned to Turkey since the restrictions on foreign ownership of real estate property in Turkey have been lifted by new law in Another development that mobilized the industry is the urban transformation projects that gained momentum with the new disaster law. The growth in real estate industry as well as the competition among new and existing players in the sector helped boost the quality expectations of consumers.. The architectural approach that emerges in today s projects stresses quality while meeting the needs of modern life. Along with aesthetic form and functional utility, environmental properties and social areas have also gained prominence. In general, pricing is shaped by the location and the features of newly developed projects. The pace of residential unit sales, on the other hand, triggers new investment areas and projects. ISTANBUL: 7TH MOST SOUGHT AFTER CITY FOR INVESTORS Given its geographical location, historical and cultural heritage, Istanbul continues to be among the top 10 cities sought mostly by investors. ( Emerging Trends in Real Estate Europe 2014 ) Increase in high quality housing stock and high transaction volume in Istanbul is expected to continue. OWING TO ITS AMBITIOUS PROJECTS IN ISTANBUL, AKIŞ REIT HAS BEEN POPULAR IN INTERNATIONAL CIRCLES Akiş REIT, which undertook Istanbul s major projects, continues to strengthen its position by developing strategies that help diversify its project portfolio. Akiş has proven its success in international circles in a short time. Akbatı Shopping Center & Residences in Esenyurt won over 20 awards in 3 years. The Shopping Center has become an attraction center for the area with over 25% sustained annual growth rate in total store sales since its opening. Having liquidated some of its portfolio assets to rejuvenate its real estate development works, REIT made new inroads in the urban transformation area as well as in high street retail properties last year. It is now developing new projects in one of the most popular commercial districts in Istanbul on the Bağdat Avenue aimed at high street retail after its successful investment in Akbatı Shopping Center for USD 250 million.

16 14 OUTLOOK SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 SEEING THE BIG PICTURE In light of growing competition, cost pressure and escalation of complexity in core business, more and more firms, investment companies and state property owners in Turkey are farming out their building management and employing external real estate specialists to look after their property portfolio. Nils Lueken RGM Turkey Deputy Chair Many private and municipal property investors and owners of considerable real estate portfolios in Turkey possess neither the management capacity nor the infrastructure to professionally manage their real estate portfolio themselves. As a result, the value of their property is sinking over the long term. In order to prevent this, more and more companies are outsourcing their facility management services and entrusting them to experienced facility management service providers who provide support for their specific corporate strategy. In addition to the maintenance and inspection of a building s technical equipment, the external facility management service provider s task is also to provide a bundle of services that increases the property s cash flow while maintaining and augmenting its value over the long term. The range of services provided by RGM Turkey, Istanbul, (a joint venture between Nurol Holding Inc. and RGM facility management GmbH, Dortmund) encompasses every aspect of technical building management for modern office buildings, shopping centers and large real estate portfolios; its areas of expertise include the inspection, maintenance and servicing of ventilation, cooling and airconditioning technology as well as sanitary facilities, heating and electrical equipment. In addition, it also provides advisory services for investment optimization, operating costs and efficient energy management, as well as managing infrastructurerelated services such as building cleaning, reception and security services, gardening and landscaping. It is also able to certify buildings to internationally recognized green building standards such as LEED or BREEAM. An external facility manager is thus able to finetune and optimize operations, exerting a significant influence on the development, planning and reduction of a building s operating and lifecycle costs and ultimately maintaining the value of the property. The magnitude of the savings that can be realized is determined by the service level desired by the customer. If the entire workforce that was previously entrusted with the services to be outsourced is taken over by the new external service provider at the same salaries and the service level maintained on an unchanged basis, the savings will be nominal over the short term, but significant over the long term. In such cases, the client will derive cost benefits if the transferred staff looks after other properties in the area, for example, or if tradesman services that had previously been outsourced to third parties are now provided by the facility manager himself. This can also be achieved by retraining members of staff. The FM model is ultimately the decisive factor in pricing; if the model is not altered, the price point will remain more or less

17 SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 OUTLOOK 15 unchanged. However, RGM TURKEY A.S. can adapt the models without altering the service level such that savings of up to 30% can be achieved through greater flexibility and mobility. If the landlord wishes to lower his costs, he can accomplish this by investing in energyrelated renovations, such as installing new windows, for example, but user behavior can also be altered to achieve further savings: electricity consumption can be reduced by using movement sensors for room lighting or standby switches for photocopiers. Facility management is thus not merely a matter of maintaining and servicing technical equipment; its principal concern is to reduce ongoing operating costs and maintain the value of the building. Everincreasing cost pressure on companies is causing them to keep a constant eye on their potential for improvements and costcutting and to take steps to realize these sustainably. Qualified facility management provides an opportunity to get a handle on these costs and to generate an economic return; RGM Turkey s aim is to ensure the economic benefit and usability of a property through low operating costs and to safeguard its value over the long term. RGM Turkey also offers special strategies for real estate portfolios that require bespoke management as a result of prevailing economic or property market conditions only a small minority of property owners are properly prepared for scenarios such as revaluations, rent defaults or the threat of distress sales. The pressure on companies to outsource facility management services is likely to increase over the long term; at the latest, when the margins in the company s core business shrink and the pressure increases to farm out services that did not originally belong to the core business, such as facility management. Modern facility management now encompasses the entire lifecycle of a property, from the first design stage to recycling of its materials and demolition. This holistic attitude requires comprehensive business management and technical skills of a buildings manager, in addition to original thinking and an innovative approach. Modern property management is just as closely linked with business administration and the real estate business as it is with site planning, building technology, HR law and resource management. In short, today s facility manager is a generalist who sees the big picture and interacts with investors and users on multiple levels.

18 16 OUTLOOK SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 CONSUMER FINANCE, REAL ESTATE FUNDAMENTALS AND SHOPPING CENTER INDUSTRY IN TURKEY Stakeholders in shopping center industry may carefully analyze in their decision making both positive longterm outlook of Turkey and also trends in consumer finance and real estate market fundamentals with some region specific risks. Dr. Yener Coşkun Senior Expert, Capital Markets Board of Turkey&Visiting Lecturer, Izmir Univ. of Economics & University of Sarajevo, MRICS Rising of shopping center in last decade represents one of the latest transformations in Turkey, in terms of new consumption patterns, newly emerging urban life style and business dynamics. Increasing consumerism with more household debt is bothersome for most of the economists. But, it seems that retail investors seem happy to the increasing number of shopping centers in all around the country, and specifically in Istanbul. Consumer demand has been the prime driver behind the strong growth of the retail sector and the size of the prize continues to increase for international chains. Deloitte Turkey Corporate Finance forecasts that sales in the Turkish retail sector of USD 313bn ( 193.5bn) in 2012 will be boosted by 10% growth per annum until Analyzing last decade, we may define that the industry did a good job. However, growing number of people have been asking in Turkey whether number of shopping centers is more than enough. This opinion article considers whether consumer finance and real estate fundamentals still show strong buy (or at least buy) status for the idea of new shopping center investment. This consumerfinance based macroeconomic analysis would be complementary on some sectorspecific analysis. From housing/real estate market perspective, housing and also real estate markets have showed noteworthy performance during last decade. In this context, one may objectively argue that housing markets were one of the important elements of successful economic period occurred in last decade (Coşkun, 2012: 1112). Although still a relatively immature market in terms of total shopping centre space per capita (121 m 2 of GLA per 1,000 inhabitants), Turkey is anticipated to benefit from the second largest pipeline in Europe, with over 2.2 million sq.m expected to be completed by the end of Istanbul remains the destination of choice as over half of all schemes are expected to be completed in the city, including two of the largest projects in the continent (Cushman&Wakefield, 2014: 1). 2 Now, there are 299 shopping centers in 54 different regions of Turkey with the 40 billion Turkish Lira investment. 3 Therefore, from residential/commercial markets perspective, Turkish market seems exciting. To analyze trends in consumer behaviour/finance and relevant macroeconomic variables in Turkey, we may review indicators in Figure 1. In this respect, first, growing FDI is one of the recent major trends in Turkish real estate (and housing) sector (Coşkun, 2014a). According to international direct investment inflow into Turkey, net real estate purchases of foreigners is USD 20.9 billion in period of Second, while mortgage

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20 18 OUTLOOK SHOPPING CENTER GUIDE TURKEY 2014 loan rate decreased to 11% as of 2014/8 from 55 % as of 2001/12, mortgage and constructions loan volumes respectively increased to USD 55 billion and 39 billion in 2014/7, with very low NPL ratios. However, as we noted in our previous studies, housing (and real estate) market activities in Turkey may require more careful management in the next few years (Coşkun, 2014a; 2014b). Stakeholders would be also careful on further developments in Turkish retail sector. As seen in Figure 1, interest rates of personal and consumer loans have declined dramatically in last decade. On the other hand, consumer /personal finance loans, consumer price index, and construction loans have also increased dramatically in recently. Moreover, general consumer confidence index (CCI) and CCI for borrowing for consumption may imply weaknesses. Therefore, stakeholders in shopping center industry may carefully analyze in their decisionmaking both positive longterm outlook of Turkey and also trends in above selected fundamentals with some region specific risks. References Coskun, Yener. (2012). Im Spiegel: Der Wohnungsmarkt in der Türkei. SPH Newsletter 10 (April): Available at: spk.academia.edu/dryenercoşkunmrics/nonacademicpapers Coşkun, Yener. (2014a). Housing Finance in Turkey in last 25 Years: Good, Bad or Ugly?. Working Paper ENHR Conference. 14 July. Scotland. Coşkun, Yener. (2014b). Overview of Turkish Housing Market: Cautious Optimism. European Mortgage Federation (EMF) Mortgage Info. October: 89. Cushman&Wakefield. (2014). Research Publication. Available at: globalreports/european%20sc%20development%20report% 20April%202014%20Martin.pdf (accessed on: 2/11/2014).