Transmission infrastructure is a low cost, high leverage component of the energy industry. Infrastructure investment can substantially affect the

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Transmission infrastructure is a low cost, high leverage component of the energy industry. Infrastructure investment can substantially affect the"

Transcription

1 < 16 chapter 2 FACTORS THAT SHAPE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT Transmission infrastructure is a low cost, high leverage component of the energy industry. Infrastructure investment can substantially affect the operation of markets involving assets and transaction values 10 to 20 times greater in value than those in the infrastructure itself, as well as public safety and overall economic growth. There are many factors that influence such investment.

2 To explore and define the range of possible long term industry scenarios that might require substantial infrastructure development, 21 factors that shape new infrastructure investment (refer Figure 8) were identified. They fall naturally into four main groups: 1 Energy supply. 2 Energy demand. 3 Authorising environment (government policy and community attitudes). 4 Key resources. The 21 factors must be considered in the light of two key contexts: Victoria s energy industry; and, legacy (i.e. existing) transmission infrastructure. These factors are described in the sections below. A total of 15 of the 21 factors were assessed as having potential for higher long term variability and these have provided the initial focus of scenario development. 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V FIGURE 8 FACTORS THAT SHAPE NEW INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT Energy demand Population trends Lifestyle trends Smelter Load GPG Load Other commercial & industrial demand End-use technology Energy supply Fuel location and price Old plant retirement Supply technology Investment climate Energy market prices Key resources Skilled people Transmission technology Investment Funds Authorising environment Carbon emissions policy Competition policy Regulation of transmission investment Independent network planning Security / reliability policy Renewable energy policy Community attitudes Higher uncertainty/impact New Investment Lower uncertainty/impact Legacy transmission assets

3 Context: Victoria s Energy Industry The factors that shape infrastructure investment must be considered in the context of the overall energy industry in Victoria Energy market size In the stationary energy industry will supply around 364 petajoules 7 of energy to Victoria in the form of electricity and natural gas as summarised in Figure 9. For both gas and electricity, consumption is driven by the industrial, commercial and residential sectors of the Victorian economy. Figure 10 shows consumption by sector for both gas and electricity. FIGURE 9: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN VICTORIA BY CLASS FIGURE 10: GAS AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR All primary energy Stationary energy (gas and electricity) Gas LPG Biomass 6% 4% Solar energy 0% Gas 57% Commercial 10% Aluminium smelter 18% Electricity 19% Residential 34% Other 1% Petroleum products 45% Industrial 48% Natural gas 26% Electricity generation 5% Gas prod, dist & other 3% Electricity 43% Source: ABARE, Australian Energy national and state projections to published August 2004 (actual figures for Victoria Source: shown) NIEIR - Energy Working Party Conference, August 2003 (figures shown are for 1998/99) Stationary energy (gas and electricity) Gas Electricity Residential 23% Solar energy 0% Gas 57% Commercial 10% Aluminium smelter 18% Commercial 18% Residential 34% Other 1% Petroleum products 45% Industrial 48% Electricity generation 5% Gas prod, dist & other 3% Electricity 43% te projections to published August 2004 (actual figures for Victoria Source: shown) NIEIR - Energy Working Party Conference, August 2003 (figures shown are for 1998/99) Residential 23% Industrial 40% Source: ABARE, Australian Energy national and state projections to published August 2004 (actual figures for Victoria shown) Source: NIEIR Energy Working Party Conference, August 2003 (figures shown are for 1998/99) 6 For more detail, refer VENCorp 2004 APRs for Gas and Electricity. These figures include both electricity delivered by GPG (1550 GWh equal to 5.6 PJ) and gas used by GPG (18 PJ), i.e. some potential double counting of energy is inherent in the way statistics are separately recorded for gas and electricity. 7 One petajoule (PJ) is joules or the energy required to supply a 60 MW load (the average electricity demand of a regional city) for a million seconds (about 6 months). Gas energy is measured in PJ, terajoules (TJ) and gigajoules (GJ). Electric energy is measured in gigawatt-hours (GWh) and megawatt-hours (MWh). One MWh is equal to 3.6 GJ.

4 2.1.2 Energy sources and consumption centres The overall geographic shape of the gas and electricity components of Victoria s energy industry as it stands in 2005/06 is shown schematically in Figure 11 and Figure 12 below: FIGURE 11: VICTORIA'S GAS TRANSMISSION SYSTEM 8 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V FIGURE 12: VICTORIA'S ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION SYSTEM 9 8 Numbers shown against transmission links are capacities (not flows) unless otherwise indicated. 9 Electricity transmission ratings represent summer rating at 35 degrees Celsius ambient temperature. 9A The Latrobe Valley to Melbourne capacity of 9450 MW is with all Latrobe Valley to Melbourne electricity transmission lines in service and allowing for unplanned outage of a parallel line. With prior outage of a 500 kv line, this capacity reduces to 6725 MW.

5 Energy industry structure Most industry participants expect that the industry structure in 25 years will be substantially different to today and that although the precise mechanism is not fully clear, developments in industry structure may affect infrastructure investment. Factors which could influence the evolution of industry structure include: 1 Growing experience of reformed market arrangements: For example, scale benefits in key business functions are being realised and demonstrated, making national scale businesses attractive. This is likely to favour horizontal integration on a national scale. 2 Risk allocation, particularly retail risk exposure as a driver of new supply investment, may lead to further retailer/supplier integration over time, i.e. greater vertical integration on a national scale. This is already happening in Victoria to some extent. 3 Niche players are emerging. A current example is the emergence of flexible electricity generation businesses designed to sell risk management products to the market in the form of physical and financial contracts. 4 Direct involvement of governments through retention of major sections of the industry in government ownership (or underwritten by contracted revenue streams from government owned entities). 5 Competition policy. Continuing experience is demonstrating that some forms of business integration may be less of a threat to competition than others. For example, integration of electricity retail and generation businesses is already considered acceptable in some circumstances, while integration of generation and transmission is still seen as very problematic and is likely to remain so. The relative acceptability of different combinations may also change as national energy markets develop greater depth. 6 An appetite in capital markets supplying retirement products to an ageing population for long term stable returns makes infrastructure funds attractive. At the same time, the separate investment characteristics of ownership and operation of major infrastructure is leading to a degree of separate identity for these two businesses. 7 Closer linkage of gas and electricity industries. Gas suppliers are pursuing potential gas power generation (GPG) opportunities to grow the gas market. The growth of GPG will increasingly link the two markets physically. At the same time, market mergers and acquisitions are tending to link them organisationally and government action to streamline regulation is linking them institutionally. 8 The Council of Australian Governments (CoAG) has initiated a move to a single national regulatory structure for the energy industry and the implementation of this structure has commenced.

6 2.1.4 Other features of the energy industry Since market reform commenced, Victoria has seen a pronounced trend towards diversification of energy sources, shorter term supply contracts and smaller power stations. More detailed information on some other key aspects of Victoria s energy industry is provided in Appendix 1, including: Similarities and differences between gas and electricity industry segments: Despite many similarities, there are some fundamental differences between the two energy forms. Peakiness of energy demand: The summer peak in electricity demand is a prominent feature driving electricity transmission investment. Gas transmission investment is driven by a winter day peak. Gas demand for GPG may reflect the electricity peak into the gas network and pose a new challenge for it, especially in the use of line pack and other storage to cope with rapid variations in GPG gas demand. Industry cost structures and price elasticity: Transmission costs are a small portion of the total cost of delivered energy. Demand for energy can be significantly affected by price in the long run. Ownership of infrastructure: In Victoria, two owners of shared assets dominate SP AusNet as owner of the electricity transmission grid and GasNet as the owner of the Principal Transmission System for gas. Major inter-state gas interconnections and gas storage facilities are owned by Alinta, TRUenergy, Origin Energy and International Power. 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V203021

7 Context: Existing Infrastructure There are three reasons why today s existing (legacy) infrastructure is relevant to the long term future: In Victoria s relatively mature energy industry, investment in new infrastructure is typically only a few percent of total asset value in any year. Infrastructure assets have very long service lives, typically several decades. New easements and sites are very difficult to obtain, so infrastructure topology tends to change only incrementally Shape and scale of legacy assets The current value of Victoria s transmission assets is summarised in Figure 13. FIGURE 13 TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE GASNET S GAS TRANSMISSION NETWORK SP AUSNET S ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION NETWORK Optimised Replacement Cost $800 million $2.8 million Depreciated Optimised Replacement Cost $500 million $1.5 million Transmission asset value per PJ of energy delivered $2.2 million/pj $8.9 million/pj The shape of these assets is illustrated in Figure 14 and Figure 15 for gas and electricity respectively. FIGURE 14 VICTORIAN GAS TRANSMISSION ASSETS Gas Transmission Network Mildura Gas Transmission Network Mildura Transmission Pipeline Transmission Pipeline Gasfields Offshore Young Gasfields Offshore Gasfields Onshore Young Gasfields Onshore APT Compressor Station APT Compressor Station Culcaim Other Pipeline Koonoomoo Culcaim Other Pipeline Koonoomoo Echuca Echuca Shepparton Wodonga Shepparton Wodonga Springhurst Springhurst Wangaratta Bendigo Wangaratta Bendigo Horsham Seymour Euroa Seymour Euroa Horsham Carisbrook Kyneton SEA Gas Pipeline Carisbrook Ararat Kyneton SEA Gas Pipeline Ararat Ballarat Sunbury Wollert Eastern Gas Pipeline Ballarat Sunbury Wollert Eastern Gas Pipeline Hamilton Hamilton Dandenong City Gate Dandenong City Gate Brooklyn Brooklyn and LNG Facility and LNG Facility Cobden Cobden Gooding Gooding Portland Allansford Portland Allansford Geelong Pakenham Geelong Pakenham Longford Plant VicHub Longford Plant VicHub Iona Iona Warragul Traralgon Warragul Traralgon Onshore and Offshore Onshore and Offshore Otway Basin Gas Otway FieldsBasin Gas Fields Bass Gas Bass Gas Offshore Bass Strait Offshore Gas Fields Bass Strait Gas Fields UGS Facility UGS Facility Tasmanian PipelineTasmanian Pipeline Source: VENCorp Gas Annual Planning Review , November 2004

8 FIGURE 15 VICTORIAN ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION ASSETS SA Interconnector (Murraylink) SA Interconnector NSW Interconnector Red Cliffs SA Interconnector (Murraylink) Horsham Portland Kerang NSW Interconnector Bendigo Red Cliffs Shepparton Glenrowan NSW Interconnector Dederang Dartmouth Mt Beauty McKay Creek Kerang Eildon Ballarat Sydenham South Morang Moorabool Geelong Latrobe Valley Terang Pt Henry Anglesea Horsham TAS Interconnector (Basslink) Bendigo NSW Interconnector Electricity Transmission Network 500 kv Transmission 330 kv Transmission 275 kv Transmission 220 kv Transmission HVDC Transmission Shepparton Glenrowan NSW Interconnector Dederang 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V Dartmouth Mt Beauty McKay Creek SA Interconnector Source: VENCorp Electricity Annual Planning Report 2005, June Further details on legacy infrastructure A more detailed overview of Victoria s legacy transmission Portland assets is contained in Appendix 2, which includes: An historical perspective: Following a period of rapid growth and high investment, the past decade has the characteristics of a mature industry with lower levels of investment. In recent years, significant private investment has occurred to connect new sources or other networks to Victoria s infrastructure. An outline of the nature and status of infrastructure assets covering utilisation and asset refresh issues. Ballarat Sydenham Eildon South Morang Moorabool Latrobe Valley Future exploitation Geelong Terang of legacy Pt Henry infrastructure It is possible and Anglesea even likely that the existing legacy TAS transmission infrastructure, augmented in accordance Interconnector with recognised potential projects and concepts, will (Basslink) meet market needs for the next 15 years. The situation beyond that time is not clear and could be influenced by the following: 1 Site incumbency: Occupied sites and easements are increasingly valuable assets because community attitudes and regulatory procedures mean establishment of new sites and easements will be increasingly difficult or impossible. > 2 Continuous refurbishment with capacity up-scaling of long life assets: Continuous refurbishment is provided by current regulatory arrangements, often in combination with up-rating to meet market needs. Most transmission assets are scaleable to some extent, but this potential varies widely.

9 24 3 Electricity fault levels 10 : Fault levels are a unique driver of electricity infrastructure development. A strategy is required to ensure future needs are met, either by network reconfiguration or selective asset (switchgear) replacement in combination with approaches that limit currents during network short circuits. 4 System constraints: System capacity constraints are a major driver of new infrastructure investment and are normally an expression of the weakest link, i.e. focussed on a particular asset. However, two particular constraints can be an expression of limitations in overall network behaviour, i.e. not related to a particular asset: Storage capacity (line pack) in the gas network to match supply with intra-day demand swings. Stability of the electricity network. 2.3 Energy supply Transmission infrastructure topology is determined by the locations of demand centres and supply sources. New source locations are more likely than new demand locations (these tend to be population centres), so factors in the energy supply group have special relevance to infrastructure development. GPG stations may be a dominant influence on the future topology of both the electricity and gas transmission networks. These can be located either close to fuel sources or to electricity demand centres. As long as inter-regional trading risk continues to be a feature of the NEM, they are likely to be located in the same market region as the load they serve. Similarly, if LNG (liquefied natural gas) shipping terminals were to become a feature of the local gas industry, these may be located in a number of suitable ports and their specific location could significantly influence the topology of the gas transmission network Fuel location and cost Historically, Victoria s energy supply has been dominated by local low cost sources: Bass Strait gas and brown coal, both located in Victoria s East (refer Figure 16). In 2006, the new Otway gas fields will come into production in Victoria s West. The economics and accessibility of possible new fuel sources is potentially one of the most variable of the factors likely to shape infrastructure investment over the next 25 years. FIGURE 16 FUEL LOCATION SOURCES Gas by source, 2004 Other 2% Electricity by source, 2000 Renewable 6% Natural gas 24% Longford 98% Brown coal 70% Source: VENCorp, Gas annual planning reiew 2004 Source: Dept of Natural Resources & Environment, Energy for Victoria 2002 Source: VENCorp, Gas Annual Planning Review 2004 Source: Dept of Natural Resources & Environment, Energy for Victoria The fault level is the current that flows into a short circuit on the network and is usually expressed in thousands of amps (ka).

10 < 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V While brown coal reserves are sufficient to supply Victoria s electricity needs for the current century, the same may not be true of Bass Strait supplying Victoria s gas needs. Considerable uncertainty exists in published estimates of remaining local gas reserves. However, if gas demand from GPG continues to grow according to current projections and new local reserves are not identified, a possible scenario is that Victoria s gas fields may be seriously depleted within 25 years. Brown coal faces a similarly uncertain threat to its long term viability from carbon policy. As with gas exploration, investment in development of clean coal technology has also been historically sensitive to government support through taxation concessions and direct grants and its future viability is hard to predict. The Victorian government has recently announced new initiatives to support development of this technology in Victoria. There has been significant recent diversification of Victoria s energy sources. The development of the Otway and Yolla gas fields has supplemented existing Bass Strait supply. For electricity, new GPG stations, wind farms and a planned electricity link to Tasmania are progressively reducing the dominance of brown coal. In the long term, should local reserves be depleted, gas may need to be obtained from remote sources, such as those in the Timor Sea and PNG. Figure 17 highlights current estimates of Australian gas and coal reserves.

11 26 FIGURE ESTIMATES OF AUSTRALIAN GAS AND COAL RESERVES Locations are indicative only. Source: Energy Networks Association, Geoscience Australia, NSW Department of Mineral Resource, Qld Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Vic Department of Primary Industries, WA Department of Industry and Resources, ABARE. Oil and gas basins Resources are shown as a percentage of total resources. Estimated Australian resources as at 1 January 2003 Gas = 167,285 PJ Liquids = 32,601 PJ (Geoscience Australia 2004) Gas basins: producing Gas basins: not producing Coal basins: producing Coal basins Source: Commonwealth Government, Securing Australia s Energy Future 2004 The current mix of low cost fuels is reflected in existing transmission infrastructure supplying Melbourne from Victoria s East. If future sources are located off this axis, changes may be required to the overall topology of Victoria s infrastructure. This may also increase costs. For example, Figure 18 indicates a possible increase of gas transmission costs of up to 800% to carry gas from PNG or the Timor Sea to Melbourne. FIGURE 18 COST OF GAS TRANSMISSION FROM REMOTE SOURCES $ / PJ Longford Otways Moomba Timor Sea/PNG SOURCE Source: NIEIR Energy Working Party Conference August 2003 (costs shown are in 2001 dollars)

12 2.3.2 Old plant Many of Victoria s energy supply facilities (power stations, gas plants) are quite old. If old plants were to cease production and be replaced by sources in different locations, this would directly affect transmission network utilisation and may require investment in new transmission capacity. The likely level of variability of this factor over a 25 year period is hard to assess. Increasingly, in the mature growth phase of the industry, physical site incumbency has real value as new sites are very difficult to establish. This tends to favour continuous refurbishment of old facilities so that existing sites become effectively perpetual supply locations. In the case of power stations, such refurbishment could even extend to change of fuel, e.g. from coal to gas, if a coal mine were to be exhausted or rendered uneconomic due to carbon costs. This has not yet been demonstrated by experience so for the purposes of this project, continuation of production in old plants is conservatively rated as a factor capable of exhibiting major variability over the period New supply technologies The emergence of a global carbon emissions control regime and a growing consumer appetite for green power have prompted increased interest in new and cleaner supply technologies. Victoria is a world leader in research into advanced brown coal utilisation. Currently, clean coal technologies are in their developmental stage and have been receiving significant government support through taxation concessions and grants. They are yet to demonstrate commercial viability in their own right or contribute significant amounts to electricity supply in Victoria. If widely adopted, they will have important implications for transmission investment by preserving the central role of the Latrobe Valley as an energy source. Similarly, distributed generation technologies, if commercially successful, have the potential to reduce the concentration of generation which has dominated electricity transmission network topology to date. Figure 19 lists energy supply technologies which Australia currently plays a significant role in international research and development efforts. < FIGURE 19 ENERGY SUPPLY TECHNOLOGY SUPPLY TECHNOLOGY Advanced brown coal utilisation Geo-sequestration Hot dry rocks Photovoltaic (PV) Remote area power supply systems Solid oxide fuel cells Solar tower electricity RELEVANCE TO AUSTRALIA Australia has large reserves of cheap brown coal. Coal of this type is used in only a few countries so there is limited international research and development to support long term use of this fuel. Research is focused on coal drying and gasification processes to increase efficiency of electricity production and cut greenhouse emissions. Technology to remove carbon dioxide from power station exhaust gas or natural gas and return it to long term underground storage is a possible key to low emission use of fossil fuels. Local geology is central to the performance of sequestration sites. Identifying, characterising and evaluating potentially suitable geologic structures to identify viable carbon storage locations is vital to the development of this technology. This is one of the more prospective, i.e. less proven, base load renewable electricity generation options. Australia s hot dry rock resource is among the best in the world, although much is located distant from energy markets. Domestic geology determines accessibility and potential. Australia has world-leading research in this technology. Australia s climate, settlement patterns and electricity use profile offer a supportive environment for uptake. However, despite decades of development, the delivered price of PV devices remains non-competitive for mainstream energy supply, although it fills a significant niche market. Australia has technology leadership in small integrated systems for remote settlements and industries, e.g. mine sites. Australia is one of the few industrialised countries with significant remote settlements. Australia has world-leading fuel cell technology. Fuel cells can utilise natural gas and offer significant potential for moving to more distributed electricity generation. However, this is an inherently capital intensive technology which requires fuel supply to distributed locations. Listed company Enviromission Limited is planning the first large scale application of this technology at a site north of Mildura. Solar heating will be used to generate rapid airflow up a high tower, producing 200 MW of electricity in internal wind turbines at its base. 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V Source: Commonwealth Government, Securing Australia s Energy Future 2004

13 28 Other supply side technologies that have been considered but not included in scenarios are: 1 Hydrogen: Although there has been much discussion of prospects for a future hydrogen economy, research has indicated that its use as a major fuel is unlikely to be a reality in the 25 year period. There are many studies investigating the use of hydrogen as a fuel for zero emission vehicle engines. Safe viable means of in-vehicle storage or economic production processes are yet to be identified and nuclear power is now regarded by many experts as the only realistic means of high volume hydrogen production. Current estimates of delivered hydrogen cost are much higher than Australian energy prices. 2 Nuclear: Nuclear power is not present in Australia, although some countries (e.g. France and Japan) that do not possess major domestic fossil fuel reserves have mature energy industries based on it. Most industry stakeholders believe nuclear power s high cost and the likely strong community opposition to it would preclude its presence in Victoria within the 25 year period. It is possible this situation may change late in the period if climate change were to prove extreme, but even then Victorian locations may not be the most likely sites for major nuclear power stations. Although remote nuclear power supply to Victoria would have clear implications for long haul electricity transmission, further consideration of nuclear options was considered outside the scope of this project. Currently, the federal House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry and Resources is conducting an inquiry into the development of the non-fossil fuel energy industry in Australia which will explore the possible future of uranium as a fuel in the Australian context. 3 Dispersed micro-generation: This may emerge depending on the economics of new technologies such as micro-turbines and fuel cells, although the scale economies of power production are well known and the payback periods of the new technologies are likely to be longer than small business and consumer markets normally tolerate, i.e. such technologies may end up limited to niche markets as are photovoltaic technologies today. At the level of the transmission network, wide adoption of such technology if it occurred, would reduce electricity demand growth and possibly increase gas demand growth, rather than be a major discontinuity. The main impact would be at the level of the distribution networks. 4 Solar: This is used extensively for residential water heating, especially in the north of the State. Whilst its use may progressively increase over time, no developments are yet apparent that might lead to major discontinuities in its development. The only potential exception to this is Enviromission s solar tower project. 5 Tidal power: This is not seen as a potential contributor to Victoria s mainstream energy supply in the period. Its use internationally after decades of development is limited to a very few sites. 6 Battery storage technology: Whilst not an energy source, this technology is a potential enabler of other sources such as solar. Development over some decades has not revealed potential for major breakthroughs that might lead to significant changes in the energy market due to this technology Energy market prices An investor considering a new supply project usually has one primary concern the selling price of the product in relation to the cost of production. In the case of electricity, where a national spot market has been established, the parallel financial market includes forward price hedges which provide some indication of likely future price movements 11. However, this market can best be described as developing rather than mature and price information usually extends forward by only a few years. Figure 20 provides the historical average wholesale price for electricity since A national market for gas has not yet been established to the same extent as for electricity and not all prices and sales volumes are published. The Victorian gas spot market is dominated by long term supply contracts between participants. As a consequence, the gas forward price hedge market is thin. The Ministerial Council on Energy is currently reviewing options for a national wholesale gas market with a focus on increasing transparency as a means of lowering barriers to new market entry. 11 Examples of forward pricing of electricity are shown on

14 FIGURE 20 NEM AVERAGE WHOLESALE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY (VICTORIA) LEVEL (Kt of CO 2 -e) YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V FINANCIAL YEAR Source: NEMMCO market data Whilst active debate continues over many features of the NEM and options for the establishment of similarly transparent gas trading on a national scale, forward wholesale energy prices are not viewed as a factor likely to exhibit higher than normal variability, ie. prices are expected to reflect a normal demand/supply cycle over the 25 year period, but not major discontinuities.

15 Energy demand In both gas and electricity, demand is dominated by the greater Melbourne and Geelong area, with smaller demand centres in regional cities (refer Figure 21 and Figure 22). This pattern is unlikely to change over the next 25 years although the energy demand in each centre will grow. FIGURE 21 VICTORIAN GAS DEMAND BY LOCATION (WINTER PEAK DAY TJ) FORECAST 2006 WINTER PEAK DEMAND: 1217 TJ Region % Melbourne & Geelong 83% Horsham Bendigo Ballarat Western Trans System Shepparton Melbourne & Geelong Wodonga North Hume South Hume Morwell 4% Wodonga 3% Western Trans System 2% Bendigo 2% Ballarat 2% Shepparton 2% North Hume 1% South Hume 1% Horsham <1% Morwell Source: VENCorp 2005 forecast 1-in-20 peak winter day demand in TJ. Victorian demand only, exports not shown. Source: VENCorp 2005 forecast 1-in-20 peak winter day demand in TJ. Victorian demand only, exports not shown.

16 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V The aluminium smelter at Portland is a major point load. It is possible that other point loads for gas or electricity might be added to the overall picture if major energy intensive industries were to be established outside the larger cities. The most energy intensive industries are (for electricity) smelters and (for gas) paper mills, petroleum refineries, chemical plants, cement works, glass works, smelters and steel mills. > FIGURE 22 VICTORIAN ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY LOCATION (MW AT TIME OF SUMMER MAXIMUM DEMAND) FORECAST 2005/6 10% SUMMER PEAK DEMAND: 10,119 MW Mildura Region % Horsham Portland Kerang Bendigo Ballarat Warrnambool Shepparton Melbourne & Geelong Wodonga Glenrowan Morwell Melbourne & Geelong 72% Portland 8% Morwell 5% Shepparton 3% Ballarat 2% Warrnambool 2% Bendigo 2% Mildura 2% Kerang 1% Glenrowan 1% Horsham 1% Wodonga 1% Source: NEMMCO market data for 2003/04 summer peak. Victorian demand only, exports and imports not shown. Source: NEMMCO market data. Victorian demand only, exports and imports not shown.

17 < Population Trends A key factor for energy consumption and electricity demand peaking is population. In mature economies such as Australia s, population growth is directly correlated to GDP growth, the primary driver of increased energy consumption. Victoria s population growth predictions to 2031 are shown in Figure 23. These predictions foresee a small natural increase over the next 25 years and an increasing proportion of the population aged over 55 years. The projected 22% population growth between 2006 and 2031 is expected to come about primarily through immigration. These estimates imply the possibility of lower long-term growth and even possible stabilisation of energy consumption. FIGURE 23 POPULATION GROWTH AND AGE PROFILE TRENDS BETWEEN 2001 AND , , ,000 n 2001 n ,000 POPULATION ( 000) POPULATION 250, , , ,000 50, YEAR AGE GROUP VICTORIAN POPULATION ( 000) GROWTH VICTORIAN POPULATION AGE PROFILE < Source: Department of Sustainability and Environment Victoria in Future 2004

18 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V Population is also a factor in demand peaking. Victoria is undergoing a period of significant demographic change. Figure 24 highlights how by 2031 overall prosperity and an ageing population will produce growth hot spots along the Victorian coast and up the central corridor of Victoria, in regional towns such as Ballarat and Bendigo. FIGURE 24 GEOGRAPHIC POPULATION CHANGE BETWEEN 2001 AND 2031 POPULATION CHANGE 2001 TO ,000 38, POPULATION CHANGE 2001 TO ,500-77, ,000 65,000 13,000 Source: Department of Sustainability and Environment Victoria in Future 2004

19 > Lifestyle trends The major factor driving peakiness of electricity demand is increased penetration of air conditioners into the residential consumer market. The level of penetration of air conditioners in Victoria is illustrated in Figure 25. In addition to potential increases in market penetration is a shift from evaporative models to refrigeration models with even higher energy demand. FIGURE 25 PENETRATION OF AIR-CONDITIONERS IN VICTORIA 100% 90% 80% 70% PENETRATION 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% < < < Actual Forecast > > > YEAR Source: Australian Greenhouse Office Standby Product Profile 2004/06, June 2004 Exacerbating the impact of air conditioner penetration, is a possible increase in the number of hot summers caused by climate change. Figure 26 illustrates the potential for climate change in Victoria to affect the number of days over 35 C 12. In response to hotter summers, Victorians are increasingly spending discretionary income on air conditioner purchases. Although improvements in air conditioner efficiency are expected to continue, the likely effect of this efficiency on peak demand is debatable. Some experts maintain unit efficiency gains will be absorbed by increased use 13. FIGURE 26 CLIMATE CHANGE: FORECAST NUMBER OF DAYS/YEAR OVER 35 DEGREES IN MELBOURNE DAYS Today n MINIMUM n MAXIMUM Source: CSIRO presentation Climate change and impacts in Victoria May Demand peaking is particularly pronounced on the 3rd day of a series of consecutive hot days in Melbourne. Overall, demand peaking predictions to 2030 imply that there will be greater demand peaking in the Victorian electricity energy market. Figure 27 shows the range of predicted 25 year outcomes for electricity demand peaking. 13 Wilkenfeld (A National Demand Management Strategy for Small Air Conditioners, for the National Appliance and Equipment Energy Efficiency Committee (NAEEC) and the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO), November 2004 (GWA 2004)).

20 FIGURE 27 ESTIMATED IMPACT OF DEMAND SIDE RESPONSE ON VICTORIAN SUMMER ELECTRICITY PEAK DEMAND 14 MAXIMUM DEMAND (MW) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10, ,900 16,100 Business as usual 15,300 Limited response YEAR/RESPONSE 14,300 Stringent response Gas demand for gas fired power generation (GPG) The demand peak for electricity may ultimately be reflected into the gas market via Gas Powered Generators (GPG). Although GPG consumption currently represents less than 6% of total annual gas use, it can comprise 20% or more of the total gas demand on the gas peak day in winter. Figure 28 shows forecast GPG gas consumption to By 2019, GPG is forecast to comprise 16-31% of Victoria s total annual gas demand, including a substantial shift from peaking plant towards intermediate and even base load operation (average GPG capacity factor increasing from 11% to 28-36% in the period). 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V The business-as-usual prediction assumes little demand side intervention through either specific measures such as time-of-use tariffs using interval metering (most consumers today see no price signals at all to reflect the high cost of peak power) or significant general energy price increases caused by a carbon emission pricing policy. Under this prediction, demand in 2030 will peak at more than 16,000 MW or 63% greater than the 2005 estimate. Even if quite stringent demand side measures are used to curb peak demand and a carbon emissions policy is implemented, maximum demand is still predicted to be above 14,000 MW or 45% greater than the 2005 estimate. Although these predictions are only indicative, they do highlight that whilst society may attempt to curb its rate of demand growth, this will only defer supply-side investment rather than eliminate it. FIGURE 28 ANNUAL VICTORIAN GPG ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECASTS ELECTRICAL CAPACITY (MW) n LOW n BASE n HIGH GAS CONSUMPTION (PJ) The opposite effect is likely to be true for the gas market, where warmer winter temperatures may well reduce the need for space and water heating which accounts for 4000 around 40% of total gas use INSTALLED GPG CAPACITY (MW) YEAR ELECTRICAL CAPACITY (MW) GAS CONSUMPTION (PJ) n LOW n BASE n HIGH n LOW n BASE n HIGH YEAR YEAR GPG GAS CONSUMPTION (PJ) Source: NIEIR - Natural gas consumption and peak day forecasts for Victoria to 2019, December 2004 (includes cogeneration GPG) 14 Source: NIEIR - Projections of Victorian Summer Peak Demands to 2030, February Maximum demand forecast is defined by NIEIR estimating that there is only 10% probability of exceeding this demand level.

Port Jackson Partners

Port Jackson Partners Port Jackson Partners NOT JUST A CARBON HIT ON ELECTRICITY PRICES Many factors will drive a doubling of electricity prices in many states by 15. This will have a major impact on virtually all businesses.

More information

2014 Residential Electricity Price Trends

2014 Residential Electricity Price Trends FINAL REPORT 2014 Residential Electricity Price Trends To COAG Energy Council 5 December 2014 Reference: EPR0040 2014 Residential Price Trends Inquiries Australian Energy Market Commission PO Box A2449

More information

APRIL 2014 ELECTRICITY PRICES AND NETWORK COSTS

APRIL 2014 ELECTRICITY PRICES AND NETWORK COSTS APRIL 2014 ELECTRICITY PRICES AND NETWORK COSTS 1 WHAT MAKES UP THE RETAIL ELECTRICITY BILL? Retail electricity bills are made up of a number of components: Wholesale costs reflecting electricity generation

More information

Energy White Paper at a glance

Energy White Paper at a glance and Science Energy White Paper at a glance WWW. i Energy White Paper at a glance The Australian Government made an election commitment to deliver an Energy White Paper to give industry and consumers certainty

More information

NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT FOR THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET

NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT FOR THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT FOR THE NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET Published: JUNE 2014 Copyright 2014. Australian Energy Market Operator Limited. The material in this publication may be used

More information

SUBMISSION TO DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY ON THE ENERGY WHITE PAPER ISSUES PAPER

SUBMISSION TO DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY ON THE ENERGY WHITE PAPER ISSUES PAPER SUBMISSION TO DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY ON THE ENERGY WHITE PAPER ISSUES PAPER u CHAMBER OF COMMERCE AND INDUSTRY QUEENSLAND SUBMISSION 7 February 2014 1 Chamber of Commerce & Industry Queensland The Chamber

More information

petratherm Explorer and Developer of Geothermal Energy Renewable Energy 2007 Impetus for Economic Energy Market Transformation REGA Forum

petratherm Explorer and Developer of Geothermal Energy Renewable Energy 2007 Impetus for Economic Energy Market Transformation REGA Forum Renewable Energy 2007 Impetus for Economic Energy Market Transformation REGA Forum Economic Challenges for Geothermal Energy in Australia Presented By: Terry Kallis, Managing Director Explorer and Developer

More information

NATURAL GAS - WHY SO LITTLE RECOGNITION?

NATURAL GAS - WHY SO LITTLE RECOGNITION? NATURAL GAS - WHY SO LITTLE RECOGNITION? Steve Davies Policy Adviser Australian Pipeline Industry Association Overview Natural Gas in Australia Real energy contribution Natural gas can help in many ways

More information

2013 Residential Electricity Price Trends

2013 Residential Electricity Price Trends FINAL REPORT 2013 Residential Electricity Price Trends 13 December 2013 Reference: EPR0036 Final Report Inquiries Australian Energy Market Commission PO Box A2449 Sydney South NSW 1235 E: aemc@aemc.gov.au

More information

Response to the Energy White Paper Issues Paper PREPARED BY EMC ENGINEERING FOR THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY

Response to the Energy White Paper Issues Paper PREPARED BY EMC ENGINEERING FOR THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY Response to the Energy White Paper Issues Paper PREPARED BY EMC ENGINEERING FOR THE AUSTRALIAN GOVERNMENT DEPARTMENT OF INDUSTRY i P a g e www.energym adeclean.com CONTENTS

More information

HEATWAVE 13 17 JANUARY 2014. DATE: 26 January 2014

HEATWAVE 13 17 JANUARY 2014. DATE: 26 January 2014 PREPARED BY: Systems Capability DATE: 26 January 2014 Contents 1 INTRODUCTION... 3 2 RESERVE LEVELS DURING THE HEATWAVE... 3 2.1 EVENTS ON THE NEM POWER SYSTEM CONTRIBUTING TO LOW RESERVES... 4 2.2 RISKS

More information

Business Council of Australia. Submission to the Owen Inquiry into Electricity Supply in NSW

Business Council of Australia. Submission to the Owen Inquiry into Electricity Supply in NSW Business Council of Australia Submission to the Owen Inquiry into Electricity Supply in NSW July 2007 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Introduction...2 2 The Benefits of Past Reform...4 3 Policy Outcomes and Steps

More information

Latrobe City Council Submission Emissions Reduction Fund Green Paper February 2014

Latrobe City Council Submission Emissions Reduction Fund Green Paper February 2014 Latrobe City Council Submission Emissions Reduction Fund Green Paper February 2014 For further information in relation to this submission please contact Allison Jones General Manager Economic Sustainability

More information

Personal Power Stations: The Australian Market for Micro-Combined Heat and Power to 2021

Personal Power Stations: The Australian Market for Micro-Combined Heat and Power to 2021 Personal Power Stations: The Australian Market for Micro-Combined Heat and Power to 2021 A Private Report for Strategic Research Clients 1.0 Overview Personal power plant technology could cost effectively

More information

The Commercial Context for Integrating Wind Energy into the Australian National Electricity Market

The Commercial Context for Integrating Wind Energy into the Australian National Electricity Market Various contexts of wind energy integration Social policies & priorities GLOBAL WINDPOWER 06 Adelaide, September 2006 The Commercial Context for Integrating Wind Energy into the Australian National Electricity

More information

Energy Productivity & Pricing

Energy Productivity & Pricing Energy Productivity & Pricing Markets for energy, renewable energy and carbon Dr Jenny Riesz February 2014 2 Average electricity retail prices Electricity price rises CSIRO Future Grid (2013) Change and

More information

Possible future retail electricity price movements: 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2015

Possible future retail electricity price movements: 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2015 ELECTRICITY PRICE TRENDS FINAL REPORT Possible future retail electricity price movements: 1 July 2012 to 30 June 2015 22 March 2013 Reference: EPR0029 Electricity price trends report EMBARGO until 22 March

More information

Western Australian Feed-In Tariff Discussion Paper

Western Australian Feed-In Tariff Discussion Paper Western Australian Feed-In Tariff Discussion Paper OVERVIEW In September 2008, the incoming State Government announced its intention to introduce a feed-in tariff as part of the Liberal Plan for Environmental

More information

Preparatory Paper on Focal Areas to Support a Sustainable Energy System in the Electricity Sector

Preparatory Paper on Focal Areas to Support a Sustainable Energy System in the Electricity Sector Preparatory Paper on Focal Areas to Support a Sustainable Energy System in the Electricity Sector C. Agert, Th. Vogt EWE Research Centre NEXT ENERGY, Oldenburg, Germany corresponding author: Carsten.Agert@next-energy.de

More information

Energy markets current challenges for Victoria. Mark Feather Executive Director, Energy Sector Development

Energy markets current challenges for Victoria. Mark Feather Executive Director, Energy Sector Development Energy markets current challenges for Victoria Mark Feather Executive Director, Energy Sector Development Today s presentation Network tariffs drivers for reform Gas market reform Retail competition in

More information

THE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET: CHOOSING A NEW FUTURE

THE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET: CHOOSING A NEW FUTURE Australian Energy Market Commission THE AUSTRALIAN NATIONAL ELECTRICITY MARKET: CHOOSING A NEW FUTURE World Energy Forum 13-16 May 2012 Quebec City, Canada Conference Paper John Pierce Chairman 1 Inquiries

More information

Australia s Natural Gas Opportunity: Fuelling A Manufacturing Renaissance

Australia s Natural Gas Opportunity: Fuelling A Manufacturing Renaissance Australia s Natural Gas Opportunity: Fuelling A Manufacturing Renaissance Fact Sheet 1: September 2012 Supply Constraints Ahead for Gas Natural gas is essential for Australian industry. It is used as an

More information

Reducing electricity costs through Demand Response in the National Electricity Market

Reducing electricity costs through Demand Response in the National Electricity Market Reducing electricity costs through Demand Response in the National Electricity Market A report funded by EnerNOC CME is an energy economics consultancy focused on Australia's electricity, gas and renewables

More information

Off-grid Hybrid Solar: Market Overview, Business Case & Technical Considerations

Off-grid Hybrid Solar: Market Overview, Business Case & Technical Considerations Off-grid Hybrid Solar: Market Overview, Business Case & Technical Considerations Craig Chambers AECOM Australia Pty Ltd of 420 George Street, Sydney, NSW 2000 Australia Keywords : Solar PV, sustainability,

More information

Australian Activities in Clean Hydrogen from Coal & Natural Gas. Dr John K Wright Director CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship Program

Australian Activities in Clean Hydrogen from Coal & Natural Gas. Dr John K Wright Director CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship Program Australian Activities in Clean Hydrogen from Coal & Natural Gas Dr John K Wright Director CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship Program Outline Characteristics of energy in Australia Energy responses Clean

More information

Energy Options in a Carbon Constrained World. Martin Sevior, School of Physics, University of Melbourne http://nuclearinfo.net

Energy Options in a Carbon Constrained World. Martin Sevior, School of Physics, University of Melbourne http://nuclearinfo.net Energy Options in a Carbon Constrained World. Martin Sevior, School of Physics, University of Melbourne Energy underpins our Civilization Imagine one week without Electricity Imagine one week without Motorized

More information

Australian Pipeline Industry Association

Australian Pipeline Industry Association Australian Pipeline Industry Association NATURAL GAS REPORT January 2009 Natural Gas in Australia Australia has abundant reserves of natural gas. Natural gas predominantly comprises methane, a colourless

More information

Review of the Energy Savings Scheme. Position Paper

Review of the Energy Savings Scheme. Position Paper Review of the Energy Savings Scheme Position Paper October 2015 Contents Executive summary... 3 Energy Savings Scheme Review Report package... 3 Expanding to gas... 3 Target, penalties and duration...

More information

Wind Power and District Heating

Wind Power and District Heating 1 Wind Power and District Heating New business opportunity for CHP systems: sale of balancing services Executive summary - Both wind power and Combined Heat and Power (CHP) can reduce the consumption of

More information

Netherlands National Energy Outlook 2014

Netherlands National Energy Outlook 2014 Netherlands National Energy Outlook 2014 Summary Michiel Hekkenberg (ECN) Martijn Verdonk (PBL) (project coordinators) February 2015 ECN-E --15-005 Netherlands National Energy Outlook 2014 Summary 2 The

More information

TAKING PRESSURE OFF GAS PRICES

TAKING PRESSURE OFF GAS PRICES SEPTEMBER 2014 TAKING PRESSURE OFF GAS PRICES FIXING AUSTRALIA S ENERGY POLICY DISTORTION THE AUSTRALIAN DOMESTIC GAS ENVIRONMENT FIGURE 1: MAP OF GAS INFRASTRUCTURE, REGIONAL GAS MARKETS AND MAJOR GAS

More information

Past and projected future components of electricity supply to the ACT, and resultant emissions intensity of electricity supplied

Past and projected future components of electricity supply to the ACT, and resultant emissions intensity of electricity supplied Past and projected future components of electricity supply to the ACT, and resultant emissions intensity of electricity supplied transport community industrial & mining carbon & energy Prepared for: ACT

More information

ENERGY MARKET REFORM

ENERGY MARKET REFORM C A S E S T U D Y O F A S U C C E S S F U L A U S T R A L I A N N A T I O N A L E N E R G Y P R O G R A M M E / S T R A T E G Y ENERGY MARKET REFORM 1. The problem or issue addressed: Efficient and effective

More information

Levelised Cost of Electricity for a Range of New Power Generating Technologies. Sciences and Engineering (ATSE)

Levelised Cost of Electricity for a Range of New Power Generating Technologies. Sciences and Engineering (ATSE) New power cost comparisons Levelised Cost of Electricity for a Range of New Power Generating Technologies Report by the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering (ATSE) MaRch 211 New

More information

The CSIRO Flagship Program and its Role in Delivering ZETs. Dr John Wright Director, CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship Program

The CSIRO Flagship Program and its Role in Delivering ZETs. Dr John Wright Director, CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship Program Zero Emissions Technologies The CSIRO Flagship Program and its Role in Delivering ZETs Dr John Wright Director, CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship Program Who/What is CSIRO? CSIRO the Commonwealth Scientific

More information

A guide to the AER s review of gas network prices in Victoria

A guide to the AER s review of gas network prices in Victoria A guide to the AER s review of gas network prices in Victoria March 2013 Commonwealth of Australia 2013 This work is copyright. Apart from any use permitted by the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced

More information

The role of gas in New Zealand s energy future?

The role of gas in New Zealand s energy future? The role of gas in New Zealand s energy future? PLACE IMAGE HERE Mike Underhill, Chief Executive Gas Industry Conference 24 October 2013 Global perspective what s happening with energy? Global recession

More information

Australian Remote Renewables: Opportunities for Investment

Australian Remote Renewables: Opportunities for Investment Australian Remote Renewables: Opportunities for Investment The largely untapped remote clean energy market and funding support available from the Australian Government creates an attractive opportunity

More information

Report to AGEA. Comparative Costs of Electricity Generation Technologies. February 2009. Ref: J1721

Report to AGEA. Comparative Costs of Electricity Generation Technologies. February 2009. Ref: J1721 Report to AGEA Comparative Costs of Electricity Generation Technologies February 2009 Ref: J1721 Project Team Walter Gerardi Antoine Nsair Melbourne Office Brisbane Office 242 Ferrars Street GPO Box 2421

More information

AER Submission. Competition Policy Review Draft Report

AER Submission. Competition Policy Review Draft Report AER Submission Competition Policy Review Draft Report November 2014 1 Introduction The AER is Australia s national energy regulator and an independent decision-making authority. Our responsibilities are

More information

Cooper Energy and the East Coast Gas Market

Cooper Energy and the East Coast Gas Market Cooper Energy and the East Coast Gas Market Cooper Energy is an ASX-listed oil and gas company that is engaged in: developing new gas supply projects; marketing gas directly to eastern Australian gas users;

More information

Greenhouse gas abatement potential in Israel

Greenhouse gas abatement potential in Israel Greenhouse gas abatement potential in Israel Israel s GHG abatement cost curve Translated executive summary, November 2009 1 Executive Summary Background At the December 2009 UNFCCC Conference in Copenhagen,

More information

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR GAS TO 2 35

LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR GAS TO 2 35 LONG-TERM OUTLOOK FOR GAS TO 2 35 Eurogas is the association representing the European gas wholesale, retail and distribution sectors. Founded in 1990, its members are some 50 companies and associations

More information

Western Australia and the Northern Territory are not connected to the NEM, primarily due to the distance between networks.

Western Australia and the Northern Territory are not connected to the NEM, primarily due to the distance between networks. Australia has one of the world s longest alternating current (AC) systems, stretching from Port Douglas in Queensland to Port Lincoln in South Australia and across the Bass Strait to Tasmania a distance

More information

WE RE HERE TO CHANGE BUSINESS ENERGY IN AUSTRALIA FOREVER.

WE RE HERE TO CHANGE BUSINESS ENERGY IN AUSTRALIA FOREVER. BUSINESS ELECTRICITY CAN BE BETTER. MUCH BETTER. ERM POWER HAS BEEN A QUIET ACHIEVER IN THE ENERGY INDUSTRY FOR MORE THAN 30 YEARS. WE SPECIALISE IN SELLING ELECTRICITY TO BUSINESS CUSTOMERS AND HAVE GROWN

More information

FACT SHEET. NEM fast facts:

FACT SHEET. NEM fast facts: (NEM) operates on one of the world s longest interconnected power systems, stretching from Port Douglas in Queensland to Port Lincoln in South Australia and across the Bass Strait to Tasmania a distance

More information

The changing role of gas transmission organisations

The changing role of gas transmission organisations The changing role of gas transmission organisations Mick McCormack, APA Group Managing Director UBS Australian Utilities Conference 29 April 2010 APA Group overview Australia s leading gas transmission

More information

Clean Energy Council submission to Queensland Competition Authority Regulated Retail Electricity Prices for 2014-15 Interim Consultation Paper

Clean Energy Council submission to Queensland Competition Authority Regulated Retail Electricity Prices for 2014-15 Interim Consultation Paper Clean Energy Council submission to Queensland Competition Authority Regulated Retail Electricity Prices for 2014-15 Interim Consultation Paper Executive Summary The Clean Energy Council (CEC) supports

More information

ELECTRICITY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY IN VICTORIA 2011 June 2012

ELECTRICITY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY IN VICTORIA 2011 June 2012 ELECTRICITY FROM RENEWABLE ENERGY IN VICTORIA 2011 June 2012 Executive Summary This report provides an overview of Victoria s electricity generation from renewable energy sources in 2012. The report presents

More information

Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015

Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 June 2015 Levelized Cost and Levelized Avoided Cost of New Generation Resources in the Annual Energy Outlook 2015 This paper presents average values of levelized costs for generating technologies that

More information

GB Electricity Market Summary

GB Electricity Market Summary GB Electricity Market Summary SECOND QUARTER 2014 APR TO JUN Recorded Levels of UK Generation by Fuel (based upon DECC Energy Trends & FUELHH data): GAS: 10.8GW WIND: 2.6GW AUGUST 2014 COAL: 10.1GW BIOMASS:

More information

Wind farm Developments in South Australia: Select Committee Inquiry

Wind farm Developments in South Australia: Select Committee Inquiry Wind farm Developments in South Australia: Select Committee Inquiry Introduction REpower Australia is a leading provider of grid connected wind farms in Australia. We directly employ over 170 people, and

More information

Restoring Tasmania s energy advantage

Restoring Tasmania s energy advantage Tasmanian Energy Strategy Department of State Growth Restoring Tasmania s energy advantage Ministerial foreword Restoring Tasmania s Energy Advantage I am very pleased to release the Tasmanian Energy Strategy

More information

Comparison of Recent Trends in Sustainable Energy Development in Japan, U.K., Germany and France

Comparison of Recent Trends in Sustainable Energy Development in Japan, U.K., Germany and France Comparison of Recent Trends in Sustainable Energy Development in Japan, U.K., Germany and France Japan - U.S. Workshop on Sustainable Energy Future June 26, 2012 Naoya Kaneko, Fellow Center for Research

More information

Infigen Energy Energy 2013 conference Renewable Energy Helping Electricity Customers Regain Some Control

Infigen Energy Energy 2013 conference Renewable Energy Helping Electricity Customers Regain Some Control Infigen Energy Energy 2013 conference Renewable Energy Helping Electricity Customers Regain Some Control 20 March 2013 Agenda Agenda Arial Bold 28pt Infigen Overview The Importance of the RET Market Drivers

More information

Powering NSW. March 2009

Powering NSW. March 2009 Powering NSW March 2009 Executive Summary The NSW Business Chamber is concerned about the future of electricity supply in NSW. The failure to privatise the electricity generators in NSW means the State

More information

Glossary of Terms Avoided Cost - Backfeed - Backup Generator - Backup Power - Base Rate or Fixed Charge Baseload Generation (Baseload Plant) -

Glossary of Terms Avoided Cost - Backfeed - Backup Generator - Backup Power - Base Rate or Fixed Charge Baseload Generation (Baseload Plant) - Glossary of Terms Avoided Cost - The incremental cost Flint Energies would pay for the next kilowatt-hour of power in the open marketplace for energy. Flint Energies Board of Directors sets this Avoided

More information

Restoring Tasmania s Energy Advantage

Restoring Tasmania s Energy Advantage Tasmanian Energy Strategy Draft for public comment Restoring Tasmania s Energy Advantage Department of State Growth Ministerial foreword Restoring Tasmania s Energy Advantage The modern history of Tasmania

More information

AEMC Electricity Price Trends report released

AEMC Electricity Price Trends report released AEMC Electricity Price Trends report released AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET COMMISSION LEVEL 5, 201 ELIZABETH STREET SYDNEY NSW 2000 T: 02 8296 7800 E: AEMC@AEMC.GOV.AU W: WWW.AEMC.GOV.AU The Australian Energy

More information

Energy consumption forecasts

Energy consumption forecasts Pty Ltd ABN 85 082 464 622 Level 2 / 21 Kirksway Place Hobart TAS 7000 www.auroraenergy.com.au Enquiries regarding this document should be addressed to: Network Regulatory Manager Pty Ltd GPO Box 191 Hobart

More information

Benefit of the Renewable Energy Target to Australia s Energy Markets and Economy Report to the Clean Energy Council

Benefit of the Renewable Energy Target to Australia s Energy Markets and Economy Report to the Clean Energy Council Benefit of the Renewable Energy Target to Australia s Energy Markets and Economy Report to the Clean Energy Council August 2012 BENEFITS OF THE RENEWABLE ENERGY TARGET Contents Executive Summary 1 1. Introduction

More information

Page 1 of 11. F u t u r e M e l b o u r n e C o m m i t t e e Agenda Item 7.1. Notice of Motion: Cr Wood, Renewable Energy Target 9 September 2014

Page 1 of 11. F u t u r e M e l b o u r n e C o m m i t t e e Agenda Item 7.1. Notice of Motion: Cr Wood, Renewable Energy Target 9 September 2014 Page 1 of 11 F u t u r e M e l b o u r n e C o m m i t t e e Agenda Item 7.1 Notice of Motion: Cr Wood, Renewable Energy Target 9 September 2014 Motion 1. That Council resolves that the Chair of the Environment

More information

NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE ROYAL COMMISSION. Advantages and disadvantages of different technologies and fuel sources; risks and opportunities

NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE ROYAL COMMISSION. Advantages and disadvantages of different technologies and fuel sources; risks and opportunities NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE ROYAL COMMISSION Submission on Issues Paper 3: Advantages and disadvantages of different technologies and fuel sources; risks and opportunities 3.8 What issues should be considered in

More information

Perspectives from Gas Users

Perspectives from Gas Users Perspectives from Gas Users Phil Barresi, CEO Energy Users Association Australia (EUAA) THE AUSTRALIAN INSTITUTE OF ENERGY SYDNEY BRANCH FORUM NSW and Eastern Australia Gas in Transition Price, Availability,

More information

Electricity network services. Long-term trends in prices and costs

Electricity network services. Long-term trends in prices and costs Electricity network services Long-term trends in prices and costs Contents Executive summary 3 Background 4 Trends in network prices and service 6 Trends in underlying network costs 11 Executive summary

More information

Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to 2024-25 SUMMARY REPORT

Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to 2024-25 SUMMARY REPORT Victorian electricity sales and peak demand forecasts to 2024-25 SUMMARY REPORT Prepared by the National Institute of Economic and Industry Research (NIEIR) ABN: 72 006 234 626 416 Queens Parade, Clifton

More information

Energy Efficiency Opportunities

Energy Efficiency Opportunities Energy Efficiency Opportunities ConocoPhillips Public Report 2011 Todd Creeger, ConocoPhillips Australia President-West Our energy efficiency story We have already invested $10 billion in Australian energy

More information

ENERGY RETAILERS COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE REPORT PRICING 2012-13

ENERGY RETAILERS COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE REPORT PRICING 2012-13 ENERGY RETAILERS COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE REPORT PRICING December 2013 An appropriate citation for this paper is: Essential Services Commission 2013, Energy retailers comparative performance report pricing,

More information

The Personal Turbine: How small could it go? By: Lukas Skoufa

The Personal Turbine: How small could it go? By: Lukas Skoufa The Personal Turbine: How small could it go? By: Lukas Skoufa Outline of the discussion My interest in this topic Brief comments - electricity industry in the last 100 years Gas turbine technology Microturbines

More information

ASSOCIATION INC Geothermal Energy: New Zealand s most reliable sustainable energy resource

ASSOCIATION INC Geothermal Energy: New Zealand s most reliable sustainable energy resource NEW PO Box 11-595 ZEALAND GEOTHERMAL Tel: 64-9-474 2187 ASSOCIATION INC Geothermal Energy: New Zealand s most reliable sustainable energy resource Current Status, Costs and Advantages of Geothermal East

More information

Generator Optional. Timeline including the next steps. A practical example. Potential benefits of OFA? Key implications. How might OFA work?

Generator Optional. Timeline including the next steps. A practical example. Potential benefits of OFA? Key implications. How might OFA work? Generator Optional Firm Access Rights Australian Energy Market Commission announces terms of reference for detailed design work On the 6 March 2014, the Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) released

More information

Security of electricity supply

Security of electricity supply Security of electricity supply Definitions, roles & responsibilities and experiences within the EU Thomas Barth Chairman of Energy Policy & Generation Committee EURELECTRIC Outline Security of Supply a

More information

Email: COAGTaskforce@finance.gov.au. Re: COAG Taskforce on regulatory and competition reform

Email: COAGTaskforce@finance.gov.au. Re: COAG Taskforce on regulatory and competition reform Ms Susan Page COAG Taskforce Secretariat Deregulation Group Department of Finance and Deregulation John Gorton Building, King Edward Terrace PARKS ACT 2600 Email: COAGTaskforce@finance.gov.au Re: COAG

More information

AGL proposal for regulated retail gas prices in NSW for 2016-17

AGL proposal for regulated retail gas prices in NSW for 2016-17 AGL proposal for regulated retail gas prices in NSW for 2016-17 Public submission Date: 27 January 2016 Table of Contents Executive Summary... 2 1 Introduction... 4 2 Wholesale gas market developments...

More information

Needs For and Alternatives To Overview Meeting Manitobans Electricity Needs. Meeting Manitobans Electricity Needs

Needs For and Alternatives To Overview Meeting Manitobans Electricity Needs. Meeting Manitobans Electricity Needs Meeting Manitobans Electricity Manitoba is growing and is expected to continue doing so. Over the last years the province has enjoyed an expanding population and economy. These increases have led to many

More information

RE: Submission to the 30 Year Electricity Strategy Discussion Paper

RE: Submission to the 30 Year Electricity Strategy Discussion Paper 6 December 2013 The 30-year Electricity Strategy Discussion Paper Department of Energy and Water Supply PO Box 15456 CITY EAST QLD 4002 electricitystrategy@dews.qld.gov.au Dear Sir/Madam RE: Submission

More information

NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT. For the National Electricity Market

NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT. For the National Electricity Market NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT For the National Electricity Market 2013 NATIONAL ELECTRICITY FORECASTING REPORT Important Notice This document is subject to an important disclaimer that limits

More information

Opportunities for Low Carbon Growth in South East Melbourne

Opportunities for Low Carbon Growth in South East Melbourne Opportunities for Low Carbon Growth in South East Melbourne 2012 South East Melbourne is an industrial and commercial hub that has the potential to reduce emissions and reap the financial benefits. South

More information

NSW Renewable Energy Target

NSW Renewable Energy Target New South Wales Government NSW Renewable Energy Target Explanatory Paper November 2006 This page intentionally blank. NSW Renewable Energy Target Explanatory Paper Contents Introduction...2 Background...4

More information

ORG Presentation at UBS Conference

ORG Presentation at UBS Conference To Company Announcements Office Facsimile 1300 135 638 Company ASX Limited Date 19 June 2014 From Helen Hardy Pages 14 Subject ORG Presentation at UBS Conference Please find attached a release on the above

More information

Austin Energy Resource, Generation and Climate Protection Plan to 2025: An Update of the 2020 Plan

Austin Energy Resource, Generation and Climate Protection Plan to 2025: An Update of the 2020 Plan Austin Energy Resource, Generation and Climate Protection Plan to 2025: An Update of the 2020 Plan INTRODUCTION The Austin City Council adopted the Austin Climate Protection Plan (ACPP) in 2007 to build

More information

World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights. www.worldenergyoutlook.org International Energy Agency

World Energy Outlook 2007: China and India Insights. www.worldenergyoutlook.org International Energy Agency World Energy Outlook 27: China and India Insights www.worldenergyoutlook.org International Energy Agency Why Focus on China & India? Increase in World Primary Energy Demand, Imports & Energy-Related CO

More information

Sustainable electricity generation

Sustainable electricity generation Sustainable electricity generation Prepared by Andrew Burge Presented to the IACA Program Part of the IACA, PBSS & IAAust Colloquium 31 October 5 November 2004 This paper has been prepared for the IACA,

More information

NETWORK PLANNING REPORT - P002. BALLARAT (Planning)

NETWORK PLANNING REPORT - P002. BALLARAT (Planning) NETWORK PLANNING REPORT - P002 BALLARAT (Planning) March 2007 Disclaimer VENCorp has prepared this report in reliance upon information provided by various third parties to it. VENCorp has not independently

More information

Brief Submission to Senate Committee Study on non-renewable/renewable energy development 1

Brief Submission to Senate Committee Study on non-renewable/renewable energy development 1 Brief submission for the study on non-renewable and renewable energy development including energy storage, distribution, transmission, consumption and other emerging technologies in Canada s three northern

More information

Disclaimer. This document is made available to you on the following basis:

Disclaimer. This document is made available to you on the following basis: TECHNICAL GUIDE TO THE VICTORIAN GAS WHOLESALE MARKET JANUARY 2010 Disclaimer This document is made available to you on the following basis: (a) Purpose - This document is provided by the Australian Energy

More information

Latrobe City Council Submission

Latrobe City Council Submission Latrobe City Council Submission Energy Green Paper - November 2014 For further information in relation to this submission please contact Sarah Cumming Executive Manager, Office of the Chief Executive Latrobe

More information

310 Exam Questions. 1) Discuss the energy efficiency, and why increasing efficiency does not lower the amount of total energy consumed.

310 Exam Questions. 1) Discuss the energy efficiency, and why increasing efficiency does not lower the amount of total energy consumed. 310 Exam Questions 1) Discuss the energy efficiency, and why increasing efficiency does not lower the amount of total energy consumed. 2) What are the three main aspects that make an energy source sustainable?

More information

FULL SOLAR SUPPLY OF INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES - THE EXAMPLE JAPAN

FULL SOLAR SUPPLY OF INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES - THE EXAMPLE JAPAN FULL SOLAR SUPPLY OF INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES - THE EXAMPLE JAPAN Dr. Harry Lehmann 1 It has long been known that to protect people and the environment from both nuclear risks and dangerous levels of climate

More information

Prepared by the Commission on Environment & Energy

Prepared by the Commission on Environment & Energy Policy statement Energy efficiency: a world business perspective Prepared by the Commission on Environment & Energy Key messages Energy efficiency is a fundamental element in progress towards a sustainable

More information

Submission fmm the Electricity Supply Association of Australia (ESAA) Limited

Submission fmm the Electricity Supply Association of Australia (ESAA) Limited Into Cities 2025 - of Representatives Standing Committee on Envfr HOUSE OF RFH^SKXI \TiYES STANDING ClXMMl FTEE ON,HF,RITAf'- r Submission fmm the Electricity Supply Association of Australia (ESAA) Limited

More information

NATIONAL PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY

NATIONAL PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY NATIONAL PARTNERSHIP AGREEMENT ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY Council of Australian Governments An agreement between the Commonwealth of Australia and the States and Territories, being: The State of New South Wales

More information

Saving energy, growing jobs

Saving energy, growing jobs Saving energy, growing jobs Victoria s energy efficiency and productivity statement June 2015 Contents Minister s foreword 1 Why energy efficiency matters for Victorians 2 Our plan for energy efficiency

More information

Understanding what is happening to electricity demand

Understanding what is happening to electricity demand Understanding what is happening to electricity demand Hugh Saddler Centre for Climate Economics and Policy Seminar Crawford School, ANU 26 August 2015 TWh TWh Changes in sent out electricity since 2006

More information

Committee on the Northern Territory s Energy Future. Electricity Pricing Options. Submission from Power and Water Corporation

Committee on the Northern Territory s Energy Future. Electricity Pricing Options. Submission from Power and Water Corporation Committee on the Northern Territory s Energy Future Electricity Pricing Options Submission from Power and Water Corporation October 2014 Power and Water Corporation 1. INTRODUCTION On 21 August 2014, the

More information

National Electricity Amendment (Network Support Payments and Avoided TUoS for Embedded Generators) Rule 2011

National Electricity Amendment (Network Support Payments and Avoided TUoS for Embedded Generators) Rule 2011 RULE DETERMINATION National Electricity Amendment (Network Support Payments and Avoided TUoS for Embedded Generators) Rule 2011 Commissioners Pierce Henderson Spalding 22 December 2011 JOHN PIERCE Chairman

More information

POLICY BRIEF: Renewable Energy and the Carbon Price Brief prepared for WWF- Australia

POLICY BRIEF: Renewable Energy and the Carbon Price Brief prepared for WWF- Australia REPUTEX ANALYTICS Brief prepared for WWF- REPORT SUMMARY This brief prepared by RepuTex and commissioned by WWF-, examines the relationship between the carbon price and renewable energy generation in.

More information

PAYMENTS TO STATES AND TERRITORIES UNDER THE NATIONAL COMPETITION POLICY FOR 1997-98

PAYMENTS TO STATES AND TERRITORIES UNDER THE NATIONAL COMPETITION POLICY FOR 1997-98 Attachment A ATTACHMENT A PAYMENTS TO STATES AND TERRITORIES UNDER THE NATIONAL COMPETITION POLICY FOR 1997-98 Under the Agreement to Implement the National Competition Policy and Related Reforms, the

More information

Electricity Demand Forecast: Do We Need the Power?

Electricity Demand Forecast: Do We Need the Power? Electricity Demand Forecast: Do We Need the Power? Department of Natural Resources November 2012 Key Findings Electricity demand is strongly linked to economic growth. Since 2002, Newfoundland and Labrador

More information