1 < 16 chapter 2 FACTORS THAT SHAPE INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT Transmission infrastructure is a low cost, high leverage component of the energy industry. Infrastructure investment can substantially affect the operation of markets involving assets and transaction values 10 to 20 times greater in value than those in the infrastructure itself, as well as public safety and overall economic growth. There are many factors that influence such investment.
2 To explore and define the range of possible long term industry scenarios that might require substantial infrastructure development, 21 factors that shape new infrastructure investment (refer Figure 8) were identified. They fall naturally into four main groups: 1 Energy supply. 2 Energy demand. 3 Authorising environment (government policy and community attitudes). 4 Key resources. The 21 factors must be considered in the light of two key contexts: Victoria s energy industry; and, legacy (i.e. existing) transmission infrastructure. These factors are described in the sections below. A total of 15 of the 21 factors were assessed as having potential for higher long term variability and these have provided the initial focus of scenario development. 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V FIGURE 8 FACTORS THAT SHAPE NEW INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT Energy demand Population trends Lifestyle trends Smelter Load GPG Load Other commercial & industrial demand End-use technology Energy supply Fuel location and price Old plant retirement Supply technology Investment climate Energy market prices Key resources Skilled people Transmission technology Investment Funds Authorising environment Carbon emissions policy Competition policy Regulation of transmission investment Independent network planning Security / reliability policy Renewable energy policy Community attitudes Higher uncertainty/impact New Investment Lower uncertainty/impact Legacy transmission assets
3 Context: Victoria s Energy Industry The factors that shape infrastructure investment must be considered in the context of the overall energy industry in Victoria Energy market size In the stationary energy industry will supply around 364 petajoules 7 of energy to Victoria in the form of electricity and natural gas as summarised in Figure 9. For both gas and electricity, consumption is driven by the industrial, commercial and residential sectors of the Victorian economy. Figure 10 shows consumption by sector for both gas and electricity. FIGURE 9: ENERGY CONSUMPTION IN VICTORIA BY CLASS FIGURE 10: GAS AND ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION BY SECTOR All primary energy Stationary energy (gas and electricity) Gas LPG Biomass 6% 4% Solar energy 0% Gas 57% Commercial 10% Aluminium smelter 18% Electricity 19% Residential 34% Other 1% Petroleum products 45% Industrial 48% Natural gas 26% Electricity generation 5% Gas prod, dist & other 3% Electricity 43% Source: ABARE, Australian Energy national and state projections to published August 2004 (actual figures for Victoria Source: shown) NIEIR - Energy Working Party Conference, August 2003 (figures shown are for 1998/99) Stationary energy (gas and electricity) Gas Electricity Residential 23% Solar energy 0% Gas 57% Commercial 10% Aluminium smelter 18% Commercial 18% Residential 34% Other 1% Petroleum products 45% Industrial 48% Electricity generation 5% Gas prod, dist & other 3% Electricity 43% te projections to published August 2004 (actual figures for Victoria Source: shown) NIEIR - Energy Working Party Conference, August 2003 (figures shown are for 1998/99) Residential 23% Industrial 40% Source: ABARE, Australian Energy national and state projections to published August 2004 (actual figures for Victoria shown) Source: NIEIR Energy Working Party Conference, August 2003 (figures shown are for 1998/99) 6 For more detail, refer VENCorp 2004 APRs for Gas and Electricity. These figures include both electricity delivered by GPG (1550 GWh equal to 5.6 PJ) and gas used by GPG (18 PJ), i.e. some potential double counting of energy is inherent in the way statistics are separately recorded for gas and electricity. 7 One petajoule (PJ) is joules or the energy required to supply a 60 MW load (the average electricity demand of a regional city) for a million seconds (about 6 months). Gas energy is measured in PJ, terajoules (TJ) and gigajoules (GJ). Electric energy is measured in gigawatt-hours (GWh) and megawatt-hours (MWh). One MWh is equal to 3.6 GJ.
4 2.1.2 Energy sources and consumption centres The overall geographic shape of the gas and electricity components of Victoria s energy industry as it stands in 2005/06 is shown schematically in Figure 11 and Figure 12 below: FIGURE 11: VICTORIA'S GAS TRANSMISSION SYSTEM 8 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V FIGURE 12: VICTORIA'S ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION SYSTEM 9 8 Numbers shown against transmission links are capacities (not flows) unless otherwise indicated. 9 Electricity transmission ratings represent summer rating at 35 degrees Celsius ambient temperature. 9A The Latrobe Valley to Melbourne capacity of 9450 MW is with all Latrobe Valley to Melbourne electricity transmission lines in service and allowing for unplanned outage of a parallel line. With prior outage of a 500 kv line, this capacity reduces to 6725 MW.
5 Energy industry structure Most industry participants expect that the industry structure in 25 years will be substantially different to today and that although the precise mechanism is not fully clear, developments in industry structure may affect infrastructure investment. Factors which could influence the evolution of industry structure include: 1 Growing experience of reformed market arrangements: For example, scale benefits in key business functions are being realised and demonstrated, making national scale businesses attractive. This is likely to favour horizontal integration on a national scale. 2 Risk allocation, particularly retail risk exposure as a driver of new supply investment, may lead to further retailer/supplier integration over time, i.e. greater vertical integration on a national scale. This is already happening in Victoria to some extent. 3 Niche players are emerging. A current example is the emergence of flexible electricity generation businesses designed to sell risk management products to the market in the form of physical and financial contracts. 4 Direct involvement of governments through retention of major sections of the industry in government ownership (or underwritten by contracted revenue streams from government owned entities). 5 Competition policy. Continuing experience is demonstrating that some forms of business integration may be less of a threat to competition than others. For example, integration of electricity retail and generation businesses is already considered acceptable in some circumstances, while integration of generation and transmission is still seen as very problematic and is likely to remain so. The relative acceptability of different combinations may also change as national energy markets develop greater depth. 6 An appetite in capital markets supplying retirement products to an ageing population for long term stable returns makes infrastructure funds attractive. At the same time, the separate investment characteristics of ownership and operation of major infrastructure is leading to a degree of separate identity for these two businesses. 7 Closer linkage of gas and electricity industries. Gas suppliers are pursuing potential gas power generation (GPG) opportunities to grow the gas market. The growth of GPG will increasingly link the two markets physically. At the same time, market mergers and acquisitions are tending to link them organisationally and government action to streamline regulation is linking them institutionally. 8 The Council of Australian Governments (CoAG) has initiated a move to a single national regulatory structure for the energy industry and the implementation of this structure has commenced.
6 2.1.4 Other features of the energy industry Since market reform commenced, Victoria has seen a pronounced trend towards diversification of energy sources, shorter term supply contracts and smaller power stations. More detailed information on some other key aspects of Victoria s energy industry is provided in Appendix 1, including: Similarities and differences between gas and electricity industry segments: Despite many similarities, there are some fundamental differences between the two energy forms. Peakiness of energy demand: The summer peak in electricity demand is a prominent feature driving electricity transmission investment. Gas transmission investment is driven by a winter day peak. Gas demand for GPG may reflect the electricity peak into the gas network and pose a new challenge for it, especially in the use of line pack and other storage to cope with rapid variations in GPG gas demand. Industry cost structures and price elasticity: Transmission costs are a small portion of the total cost of delivered energy. Demand for energy can be significantly affected by price in the long run. Ownership of infrastructure: In Victoria, two owners of shared assets dominate SP AusNet as owner of the electricity transmission grid and GasNet as the owner of the Principal Transmission System for gas. Major inter-state gas interconnections and gas storage facilities are owned by Alinta, TRUenergy, Origin Energy and International Power. 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V203021
7 Context: Existing Infrastructure There are three reasons why today s existing (legacy) infrastructure is relevant to the long term future: In Victoria s relatively mature energy industry, investment in new infrastructure is typically only a few percent of total asset value in any year. Infrastructure assets have very long service lives, typically several decades. New easements and sites are very difficult to obtain, so infrastructure topology tends to change only incrementally Shape and scale of legacy assets The current value of Victoria s transmission assets is summarised in Figure 13. FIGURE 13 TRANSMISSION INFRASTRUCTURE GASNET S GAS TRANSMISSION NETWORK SP AUSNET S ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION NETWORK Optimised Replacement Cost $800 million $2.8 million Depreciated Optimised Replacement Cost $500 million $1.5 million Transmission asset value per PJ of energy delivered $2.2 million/pj $8.9 million/pj The shape of these assets is illustrated in Figure 14 and Figure 15 for gas and electricity respectively. FIGURE 14 VICTORIAN GAS TRANSMISSION ASSETS Gas Transmission Network Mildura Gas Transmission Network Mildura Transmission Pipeline Transmission Pipeline Gasfields Offshore Young Gasfields Offshore Gasfields Onshore Young Gasfields Onshore APT Compressor Station APT Compressor Station Culcaim Other Pipeline Koonoomoo Culcaim Other Pipeline Koonoomoo Echuca Echuca Shepparton Wodonga Shepparton Wodonga Springhurst Springhurst Wangaratta Bendigo Wangaratta Bendigo Horsham Seymour Euroa Seymour Euroa Horsham Carisbrook Kyneton SEA Gas Pipeline Carisbrook Ararat Kyneton SEA Gas Pipeline Ararat Ballarat Sunbury Wollert Eastern Gas Pipeline Ballarat Sunbury Wollert Eastern Gas Pipeline Hamilton Hamilton Dandenong City Gate Dandenong City Gate Brooklyn Brooklyn and LNG Facility and LNG Facility Cobden Cobden Gooding Gooding Portland Allansford Portland Allansford Geelong Pakenham Geelong Pakenham Longford Plant VicHub Longford Plant VicHub Iona Iona Warragul Traralgon Warragul Traralgon Onshore and Offshore Onshore and Offshore Otway Basin Gas Otway FieldsBasin Gas Fields Bass Gas Bass Gas Offshore Bass Strait Offshore Gas Fields Bass Strait Gas Fields UGS Facility UGS Facility Tasmanian PipelineTasmanian Pipeline Source: VENCorp Gas Annual Planning Review , November 2004
8 FIGURE 15 VICTORIAN ELECTRICITY TRANSMISSION ASSETS SA Interconnector (Murraylink) SA Interconnector NSW Interconnector Red Cliffs SA Interconnector (Murraylink) Horsham Portland Kerang NSW Interconnector Bendigo Red Cliffs Shepparton Glenrowan NSW Interconnector Dederang Dartmouth Mt Beauty McKay Creek Kerang Eildon Ballarat Sydenham South Morang Moorabool Geelong Latrobe Valley Terang Pt Henry Anglesea Horsham TAS Interconnector (Basslink) Bendigo NSW Interconnector Electricity Transmission Network 500 kv Transmission 330 kv Transmission 275 kv Transmission 220 kv Transmission HVDC Transmission Shepparton Glenrowan NSW Interconnector Dederang 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V Dartmouth Mt Beauty McKay Creek SA Interconnector Source: VENCorp Electricity Annual Planning Report 2005, June Further details on legacy infrastructure A more detailed overview of Victoria s legacy transmission Portland assets is contained in Appendix 2, which includes: An historical perspective: Following a period of rapid growth and high investment, the past decade has the characteristics of a mature industry with lower levels of investment. In recent years, significant private investment has occurred to connect new sources or other networks to Victoria s infrastructure. An outline of the nature and status of infrastructure assets covering utilisation and asset refresh issues. Ballarat Sydenham Eildon South Morang Moorabool Latrobe Valley Future exploitation Geelong Terang of legacy Pt Henry infrastructure It is possible and Anglesea even likely that the existing legacy TAS transmission infrastructure, augmented in accordance Interconnector with recognised potential projects and concepts, will (Basslink) meet market needs for the next 15 years. The situation beyond that time is not clear and could be influenced by the following: 1 Site incumbency: Occupied sites and easements are increasingly valuable assets because community attitudes and regulatory procedures mean establishment of new sites and easements will be increasingly difficult or impossible. > 2 Continuous refurbishment with capacity up-scaling of long life assets: Continuous refurbishment is provided by current regulatory arrangements, often in combination with up-rating to meet market needs. Most transmission assets are scaleable to some extent, but this potential varies widely.
9 24 3 Electricity fault levels 10 : Fault levels are a unique driver of electricity infrastructure development. A strategy is required to ensure future needs are met, either by network reconfiguration or selective asset (switchgear) replacement in combination with approaches that limit currents during network short circuits. 4 System constraints: System capacity constraints are a major driver of new infrastructure investment and are normally an expression of the weakest link, i.e. focussed on a particular asset. However, two particular constraints can be an expression of limitations in overall network behaviour, i.e. not related to a particular asset: Storage capacity (line pack) in the gas network to match supply with intra-day demand swings. Stability of the electricity network. 2.3 Energy supply Transmission infrastructure topology is determined by the locations of demand centres and supply sources. New source locations are more likely than new demand locations (these tend to be population centres), so factors in the energy supply group have special relevance to infrastructure development. GPG stations may be a dominant influence on the future topology of both the electricity and gas transmission networks. These can be located either close to fuel sources or to electricity demand centres. As long as inter-regional trading risk continues to be a feature of the NEM, they are likely to be located in the same market region as the load they serve. Similarly, if LNG (liquefied natural gas) shipping terminals were to become a feature of the local gas industry, these may be located in a number of suitable ports and their specific location could significantly influence the topology of the gas transmission network Fuel location and cost Historically, Victoria s energy supply has been dominated by local low cost sources: Bass Strait gas and brown coal, both located in Victoria s East (refer Figure 16). In 2006, the new Otway gas fields will come into production in Victoria s West. The economics and accessibility of possible new fuel sources is potentially one of the most variable of the factors likely to shape infrastructure investment over the next 25 years. FIGURE 16 FUEL LOCATION SOURCES Gas by source, 2004 Other 2% Electricity by source, 2000 Renewable 6% Natural gas 24% Longford 98% Brown coal 70% Source: VENCorp, Gas annual planning reiew 2004 Source: Dept of Natural Resources & Environment, Energy for Victoria 2002 Source: VENCorp, Gas Annual Planning Review 2004 Source: Dept of Natural Resources & Environment, Energy for Victoria The fault level is the current that flows into a short circuit on the network and is usually expressed in thousands of amps (ka).
10 < 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V While brown coal reserves are sufficient to supply Victoria s electricity needs for the current century, the same may not be true of Bass Strait supplying Victoria s gas needs. Considerable uncertainty exists in published estimates of remaining local gas reserves. However, if gas demand from GPG continues to grow according to current projections and new local reserves are not identified, a possible scenario is that Victoria s gas fields may be seriously depleted within 25 years. Brown coal faces a similarly uncertain threat to its long term viability from carbon policy. As with gas exploration, investment in development of clean coal technology has also been historically sensitive to government support through taxation concessions and direct grants and its future viability is hard to predict. The Victorian government has recently announced new initiatives to support development of this technology in Victoria. There has been significant recent diversification of Victoria s energy sources. The development of the Otway and Yolla gas fields has supplemented existing Bass Strait supply. For electricity, new GPG stations, wind farms and a planned electricity link to Tasmania are progressively reducing the dominance of brown coal. In the long term, should local reserves be depleted, gas may need to be obtained from remote sources, such as those in the Timor Sea and PNG. Figure 17 highlights current estimates of Australian gas and coal reserves.
11 26 FIGURE ESTIMATES OF AUSTRALIAN GAS AND COAL RESERVES Locations are indicative only. Source: Energy Networks Association, Geoscience Australia, NSW Department of Mineral Resource, Qld Department of Natural Resources and Mines, Vic Department of Primary Industries, WA Department of Industry and Resources, ABARE. Oil and gas basins Resources are shown as a percentage of total resources. Estimated Australian resources as at 1 January 2003 Gas = 167,285 PJ Liquids = 32,601 PJ (Geoscience Australia 2004) Gas basins: producing Gas basins: not producing Coal basins: producing Coal basins Source: Commonwealth Government, Securing Australia s Energy Future 2004 The current mix of low cost fuels is reflected in existing transmission infrastructure supplying Melbourne from Victoria s East. If future sources are located off this axis, changes may be required to the overall topology of Victoria s infrastructure. This may also increase costs. For example, Figure 18 indicates a possible increase of gas transmission costs of up to 800% to carry gas from PNG or the Timor Sea to Melbourne. FIGURE 18 COST OF GAS TRANSMISSION FROM REMOTE SOURCES $ / PJ Longford Otways Moomba Timor Sea/PNG SOURCE Source: NIEIR Energy Working Party Conference August 2003 (costs shown are in 2001 dollars)
12 2.3.2 Old plant Many of Victoria s energy supply facilities (power stations, gas plants) are quite old. If old plants were to cease production and be replaced by sources in different locations, this would directly affect transmission network utilisation and may require investment in new transmission capacity. The likely level of variability of this factor over a 25 year period is hard to assess. Increasingly, in the mature growth phase of the industry, physical site incumbency has real value as new sites are very difficult to establish. This tends to favour continuous refurbishment of old facilities so that existing sites become effectively perpetual supply locations. In the case of power stations, such refurbishment could even extend to change of fuel, e.g. from coal to gas, if a coal mine were to be exhausted or rendered uneconomic due to carbon costs. This has not yet been demonstrated by experience so for the purposes of this project, continuation of production in old plants is conservatively rated as a factor capable of exhibiting major variability over the period New supply technologies The emergence of a global carbon emissions control regime and a growing consumer appetite for green power have prompted increased interest in new and cleaner supply technologies. Victoria is a world leader in research into advanced brown coal utilisation. Currently, clean coal technologies are in their developmental stage and have been receiving significant government support through taxation concessions and grants. They are yet to demonstrate commercial viability in their own right or contribute significant amounts to electricity supply in Victoria. If widely adopted, they will have important implications for transmission investment by preserving the central role of the Latrobe Valley as an energy source. Similarly, distributed generation technologies, if commercially successful, have the potential to reduce the concentration of generation which has dominated electricity transmission network topology to date. Figure 19 lists energy supply technologies which Australia currently plays a significant role in international research and development efforts. < FIGURE 19 ENERGY SUPPLY TECHNOLOGY SUPPLY TECHNOLOGY Advanced brown coal utilisation Geo-sequestration Hot dry rocks Photovoltaic (PV) Remote area power supply systems Solid oxide fuel cells Solar tower electricity RELEVANCE TO AUSTRALIA Australia has large reserves of cheap brown coal. Coal of this type is used in only a few countries so there is limited international research and development to support long term use of this fuel. Research is focused on coal drying and gasification processes to increase efficiency of electricity production and cut greenhouse emissions. Technology to remove carbon dioxide from power station exhaust gas or natural gas and return it to long term underground storage is a possible key to low emission use of fossil fuels. Local geology is central to the performance of sequestration sites. Identifying, characterising and evaluating potentially suitable geologic structures to identify viable carbon storage locations is vital to the development of this technology. This is one of the more prospective, i.e. less proven, base load renewable electricity generation options. Australia s hot dry rock resource is among the best in the world, although much is located distant from energy markets. Domestic geology determines accessibility and potential. Australia has world-leading research in this technology. Australia s climate, settlement patterns and electricity use profile offer a supportive environment for uptake. However, despite decades of development, the delivered price of PV devices remains non-competitive for mainstream energy supply, although it fills a significant niche market. Australia has technology leadership in small integrated systems for remote settlements and industries, e.g. mine sites. Australia is one of the few industrialised countries with significant remote settlements. Australia has world-leading fuel cell technology. Fuel cells can utilise natural gas and offer significant potential for moving to more distributed electricity generation. However, this is an inherently capital intensive technology which requires fuel supply to distributed locations. Listed company Enviromission Limited is planning the first large scale application of this technology at a site north of Mildura. Solar heating will be used to generate rapid airflow up a high tower, producing 200 MW of electricity in internal wind turbines at its base. 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V Source: Commonwealth Government, Securing Australia s Energy Future 2004
13 28 Other supply side technologies that have been considered but not included in scenarios are: 1 Hydrogen: Although there has been much discussion of prospects for a future hydrogen economy, research has indicated that its use as a major fuel is unlikely to be a reality in the 25 year period. There are many studies investigating the use of hydrogen as a fuel for zero emission vehicle engines. Safe viable means of in-vehicle storage or economic production processes are yet to be identified and nuclear power is now regarded by many experts as the only realistic means of high volume hydrogen production. Current estimates of delivered hydrogen cost are much higher than Australian energy prices. 2 Nuclear: Nuclear power is not present in Australia, although some countries (e.g. France and Japan) that do not possess major domestic fossil fuel reserves have mature energy industries based on it. Most industry stakeholders believe nuclear power s high cost and the likely strong community opposition to it would preclude its presence in Victoria within the 25 year period. It is possible this situation may change late in the period if climate change were to prove extreme, but even then Victorian locations may not be the most likely sites for major nuclear power stations. Although remote nuclear power supply to Victoria would have clear implications for long haul electricity transmission, further consideration of nuclear options was considered outside the scope of this project. Currently, the federal House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry and Resources is conducting an inquiry into the development of the non-fossil fuel energy industry in Australia which will explore the possible future of uranium as a fuel in the Australian context. 3 Dispersed micro-generation: This may emerge depending on the economics of new technologies such as micro-turbines and fuel cells, although the scale economies of power production are well known and the payback periods of the new technologies are likely to be longer than small business and consumer markets normally tolerate, i.e. such technologies may end up limited to niche markets as are photovoltaic technologies today. At the level of the transmission network, wide adoption of such technology if it occurred, would reduce electricity demand growth and possibly increase gas demand growth, rather than be a major discontinuity. The main impact would be at the level of the distribution networks. 4 Solar: This is used extensively for residential water heating, especially in the north of the State. Whilst its use may progressively increase over time, no developments are yet apparent that might lead to major discontinuities in its development. The only potential exception to this is Enviromission s solar tower project. 5 Tidal power: This is not seen as a potential contributor to Victoria s mainstream energy supply in the period. Its use internationally after decades of development is limited to a very few sites. 6 Battery storage technology: Whilst not an energy source, this technology is a potential enabler of other sources such as solar. Development over some decades has not revealed potential for major breakthroughs that might lead to significant changes in the energy market due to this technology Energy market prices An investor considering a new supply project usually has one primary concern the selling price of the product in relation to the cost of production. In the case of electricity, where a national spot market has been established, the parallel financial market includes forward price hedges which provide some indication of likely future price movements 11. However, this market can best be described as developing rather than mature and price information usually extends forward by only a few years. Figure 20 provides the historical average wholesale price for electricity since A national market for gas has not yet been established to the same extent as for electricity and not all prices and sales volumes are published. The Victorian gas spot market is dominated by long term supply contracts between participants. As a consequence, the gas forward price hedge market is thin. The Ministerial Council on Energy is currently reviewing options for a national wholesale gas market with a focus on increasing transparency as a means of lowering barriers to new market entry. 11 Examples of forward pricing of electricity are shown on
14 FIGURE 20 NEM AVERAGE WHOLESALE PRICE OF ELECTRICITY (VICTORIA) LEVEL (Kt of CO 2 -e) YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V FINANCIAL YEAR Source: NEMMCO market data Whilst active debate continues over many features of the NEM and options for the establishment of similarly transparent gas trading on a national scale, forward wholesale energy prices are not viewed as a factor likely to exhibit higher than normal variability, ie. prices are expected to reflect a normal demand/supply cycle over the 25 year period, but not major discontinuities.
15 Energy demand In both gas and electricity, demand is dominated by the greater Melbourne and Geelong area, with smaller demand centres in regional cities (refer Figure 21 and Figure 22). This pattern is unlikely to change over the next 25 years although the energy demand in each centre will grow. FIGURE 21 VICTORIAN GAS DEMAND BY LOCATION (WINTER PEAK DAY TJ) FORECAST 2006 WINTER PEAK DEMAND: 1217 TJ Region % Melbourne & Geelong 83% Horsham Bendigo Ballarat Western Trans System Shepparton Melbourne & Geelong Wodonga North Hume South Hume Morwell 4% Wodonga 3% Western Trans System 2% Bendigo 2% Ballarat 2% Shepparton 2% North Hume 1% South Hume 1% Horsham <1% Morwell Source: VENCorp 2005 forecast 1-in-20 peak winter day demand in TJ. Victorian demand only, exports not shown. Source: VENCorp 2005 forecast 1-in-20 peak winter day demand in TJ. Victorian demand only, exports not shown.
16 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V The aluminium smelter at Portland is a major point load. It is possible that other point loads for gas or electricity might be added to the overall picture if major energy intensive industries were to be established outside the larger cities. The most energy intensive industries are (for electricity) smelters and (for gas) paper mills, petroleum refineries, chemical plants, cement works, glass works, smelters and steel mills. > FIGURE 22 VICTORIAN ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY LOCATION (MW AT TIME OF SUMMER MAXIMUM DEMAND) FORECAST 2005/6 10% SUMMER PEAK DEMAND: 10,119 MW Mildura Region % Horsham Portland Kerang Bendigo Ballarat Warrnambool Shepparton Melbourne & Geelong Wodonga Glenrowan Morwell Melbourne & Geelong 72% Portland 8% Morwell 5% Shepparton 3% Ballarat 2% Warrnambool 2% Bendigo 2% Mildura 2% Kerang 1% Glenrowan 1% Horsham 1% Wodonga 1% Source: NEMMCO market data for 2003/04 summer peak. Victorian demand only, exports and imports not shown. Source: NEMMCO market data. Victorian demand only, exports and imports not shown.
17 < Population Trends A key factor for energy consumption and electricity demand peaking is population. In mature economies such as Australia s, population growth is directly correlated to GDP growth, the primary driver of increased energy consumption. Victoria s population growth predictions to 2031 are shown in Figure 23. These predictions foresee a small natural increase over the next 25 years and an increasing proportion of the population aged over 55 years. The projected 22% population growth between 2006 and 2031 is expected to come about primarily through immigration. These estimates imply the possibility of lower long-term growth and even possible stabilisation of energy consumption. FIGURE 23 POPULATION GROWTH AND AGE PROFILE TRENDS BETWEEN 2001 AND , , ,000 n 2001 n ,000 POPULATION ( 000) POPULATION 250, , , ,000 50, YEAR AGE GROUP VICTORIAN POPULATION ( 000) GROWTH VICTORIAN POPULATION AGE PROFILE < Source: Department of Sustainability and Environment Victoria in Future 2004
18 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V Population is also a factor in demand peaking. Victoria is undergoing a period of significant demographic change. Figure 24 highlights how by 2031 overall prosperity and an ageing population will produce growth hot spots along the Victorian coast and up the central corridor of Victoria, in regional towns such as Ballarat and Bendigo. FIGURE 24 GEOGRAPHIC POPULATION CHANGE BETWEEN 2001 AND 2031 POPULATION CHANGE 2001 TO ,000 38, POPULATION CHANGE 2001 TO ,500-77, ,000 65,000 13,000 Source: Department of Sustainability and Environment Victoria in Future 2004
19 > Lifestyle trends The major factor driving peakiness of electricity demand is increased penetration of air conditioners into the residential consumer market. The level of penetration of air conditioners in Victoria is illustrated in Figure 25. In addition to potential increases in market penetration is a shift from evaporative models to refrigeration models with even higher energy demand. FIGURE 25 PENETRATION OF AIR-CONDITIONERS IN VICTORIA 100% 90% 80% 70% PENETRATION 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% < < < Actual Forecast > > > YEAR Source: Australian Greenhouse Office Standby Product Profile 2004/06, June 2004 Exacerbating the impact of air conditioner penetration, is a possible increase in the number of hot summers caused by climate change. Figure 26 illustrates the potential for climate change in Victoria to affect the number of days over 35 C 12. In response to hotter summers, Victorians are increasingly spending discretionary income on air conditioner purchases. Although improvements in air conditioner efficiency are expected to continue, the likely effect of this efficiency on peak demand is debatable. Some experts maintain unit efficiency gains will be absorbed by increased use 13. FIGURE 26 CLIMATE CHANGE: FORECAST NUMBER OF DAYS/YEAR OVER 35 DEGREES IN MELBOURNE DAYS Today n MINIMUM n MAXIMUM Source: CSIRO presentation Climate change and impacts in Victoria May Demand peaking is particularly pronounced on the 3rd day of a series of consecutive hot days in Melbourne. Overall, demand peaking predictions to 2030 imply that there will be greater demand peaking in the Victorian electricity energy market. Figure 27 shows the range of predicted 25 year outcomes for electricity demand peaking. 13 Wilkenfeld (A National Demand Management Strategy for Small Air Conditioners, for the National Appliance and Equipment Energy Efficiency Committee (NAEEC) and the Australian Greenhouse Office (AGO), November 2004 (GWA 2004)).
20 FIGURE 27 ESTIMATED IMPACT OF DEMAND SIDE RESPONSE ON VICTORIAN SUMMER ELECTRICITY PEAK DEMAND 14 MAXIMUM DEMAND (MW) 18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10, ,900 16,100 Business as usual 15,300 Limited response YEAR/RESPONSE 14,300 Stringent response Gas demand for gas fired power generation (GPG) The demand peak for electricity may ultimately be reflected into the gas market via Gas Powered Generators (GPG). Although GPG consumption currently represents less than 6% of total annual gas use, it can comprise 20% or more of the total gas demand on the gas peak day in winter. Figure 28 shows forecast GPG gas consumption to By 2019, GPG is forecast to comprise 16-31% of Victoria s total annual gas demand, including a substantial shift from peaking plant towards intermediate and even base load operation (average GPG capacity factor increasing from 11% to 28-36% in the period). 25 YEAR VISION FOR VICTORIA S ENERGY TRANSMISSION NETWORKS V The business-as-usual prediction assumes little demand side intervention through either specific measures such as time-of-use tariffs using interval metering (most consumers today see no price signals at all to reflect the high cost of peak power) or significant general energy price increases caused by a carbon emission pricing policy. Under this prediction, demand in 2030 will peak at more than 16,000 MW or 63% greater than the 2005 estimate. Even if quite stringent demand side measures are used to curb peak demand and a carbon emissions policy is implemented, maximum demand is still predicted to be above 14,000 MW or 45% greater than the 2005 estimate. Although these predictions are only indicative, they do highlight that whilst society may attempt to curb its rate of demand growth, this will only defer supply-side investment rather than eliminate it. FIGURE 28 ANNUAL VICTORIAN GPG ENERGY CONSUMPTION FORECASTS ELECTRICAL CAPACITY (MW) n LOW n BASE n HIGH GAS CONSUMPTION (PJ) The opposite effect is likely to be true for the gas market, where warmer winter temperatures may well reduce the need for space and water heating which accounts for 4000 around 40% of total gas use INSTALLED GPG CAPACITY (MW) YEAR ELECTRICAL CAPACITY (MW) GAS CONSUMPTION (PJ) n LOW n BASE n HIGH n LOW n BASE n HIGH YEAR YEAR GPG GAS CONSUMPTION (PJ) Source: NIEIR - Natural gas consumption and peak day forecasts for Victoria to 2019, December 2004 (includes cogeneration GPG) 14 Source: NIEIR - Projections of Victorian Summer Peak Demands to 2030, February Maximum demand forecast is defined by NIEIR estimating that there is only 10% probability of exceeding this demand level.
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