# Traffic fatalities and injuries: the effect of changes in infrastructure and other trends

Save this PDF as:

Size: px
Start display at page:

Download "Traffic fatalities and injuries: the effect of changes in infrastructure and other trends"

## Transcription

4 602 R.B. Noland / Accident Analysis and Prevention 35 (2003) mass function: P(Y = y i ) = Γ(1/a ( i + y i ) 1 Γ(1/a i )y i! 1 + a i λ it ( ) 1 yi a i λ it ) 1/ai where a i is the rate of overdispersion for each group and Γ ( ) is the gamma function. In this formulation, the dependent variable, λ it, is defined for each group over a given time series. The model can be written as: λ it = e b x it, i = 1,..., N, t = 1,..., T i The independent variables, x it are defined over N crosssectional units and over T time periods. The parameter b is estimated by maximum likelihood estimation. Another method, known as the random effects model, assumes that the inverse of the overdispersion parameter varies randomly between groups with a beta distribution. This method assumes that the random effects are uncorrelated with the regressors, while the fixed effect model does not make this assumption. If this assumption does not hold then the fixed effects model would provide consistent coefficient estimates while the random effects model would not. Hausman et al. (1984) show that the Hausman specification test can be used to test which model is more appropriate. For the data analysed here, it was found that the hypothesis of a fixed effects model could not be rejected in all but one case. These statistical methods provide several advantages over previous studies. Lave (1989) criticises the use of aggregate data in accident analysis. He compares results using state-wide data for all highway types with data disaggregated by highway type and shows different results on key policy variables. His analysis, however, uses a 1-year cross-section of data and hence cannot adequately control for the many other factors that may influence the model. Likewise, Loeb (1987) uses aggregate data with various socio-economic variables to analyse fatality rates. While showing several formulations that suggest robust results, the use of a 1-year cross-section cannot control for heterogeneity in the data for the various states. 2 Fridstrom and Ingebrigsten (1991) point out that the key advantage of using aggregate data is that it can capture effects such as blackspot migration which could be potentially lost using disaggregate data (Boyle and Wright, 1984). Despite this, the studies of Loeb (1987) and other work criticised by Lave (1989) are probably not deficient for the use of aggregate data, but rather for the use of indadequate statistical techniques that do not account for heterogeneity and effects unmeasurable to the analyst as causal factors. 2 Loeb (1987) identifies three policy variables that may affect fatality rates. These are state-wide beer consumption, whether or not the state has a vehicle inspection program, and speed. Interestingly, he finds that highway miles are not significant. 4. Modelling results A number of different models were estimated using the data described previously. The key variables of interest are the infrastructure variables and other variables that change over time. These included, age cohorts, per capita alcohol consumption, seat-belt laws (and usage), per capita income, and population. VMT was also included in models without the population variable due to their high collinearity. These results were essentially similar to the population models and are not shown for brevity. 3 Tables 2 and 3 have results for fixed effect negative binomial models estimated controlling for state population. As mentioned previously, random effects models were also estimated but were rejected by the Hausman specification test, except in one case which is discussed below. Dependent variables are indicated for each model and were total traffic-related fatalities (DEATHS) and total traffic-related injuries (INJURED). The years of data used in the estimates are also listed. Models A and B in both Tables 2 and 3, do not include proxies for medical technology improvements. These are added in models C and D. Table 3 replaces the variables for seat-belt laws with a seat-belt usage rate for each state. This data was only available from 1990 to 1997 and therefore these models contain a shorter time series of data than those in Table 2. Table 4 contains a random effects negative binomial model corresponding to the fixed effects model estimated as model 3-C. This model was not rejected by the Hausman specification and is included here as a likely superior model to that of 3-C. In the following sections, the results of the infrastructure variables are discussed first, followed by a discussion of demographic and trend variables, and then other key variables. The magnitude of the estimated coefficient impacts on expected fatalities and injuries is also discussed. 5. Infrastructure variables Total lane miles are found to be highly significant in the fatality models (2-A and 2-C). In models 3-A and 3-C, based on a shorter time series and controlling for seat-belt usage, total lane miles shows a small negative effect. 4 However, the random effects specification of model 3-C in Table 4, shows that the lane mile coefficient is highly significant and positive. For injuries, this variable is also significant in model B but loses significance and magnitude in model D (in both Tables 2 and 3). Initial expectations were that this variable would be significant with a negative sign, implying that 3 See Noland (2001), a previous version of this paper that includes models with VMT. 4 This result appears to be due to the shorter time series and not the inclusion of the seat-belt usage variable. Models specified with the seat-belt laws showed a similar negative coefficient, though with slightly lower significance.

5 Table 2 Fixed effect negative binomial model (A) (B) (C) (D) DEATHS a ( ) b INJURED a ( ) b DEATHS a ( ) b INJURED a ( ) b Coefficient t-statistics Coefficient t-statistics Coefficient t-statistics Coefficient t-statistics Infrastructure variables log(total lane miles) log(average number of interstate lanes) log(average number of arterial lanes) log(average number of collector lanes) log(interstate lane miles (%)) log(arterial lane miles (%)) log(collector lane miles (%)) log(arterials with lane widths of 9 ft or less (%)) log(arterials with lane widths of 10 ft (%)) log(percent arterials with lane widths of 11 ft (%)) log(arterials with lane widths of 12 ft or greater (%)) log(collectors with lane widths of 9 ft or less (%)) log(collectors with lane widths of 10 ft (%)) log(collectors with lane widths of 11 ft (%)) log (collectors with lane widths of 12 ft or greater (%)) Demographic and trend variables log(population aged years (%)) log(population over age 75 years (%)) log(per capita income) log(population) Year Other variables Primary seat-belt law Secondary seat-belt law log(per capita alcohol consumption) log(white infant mortality) log(hospitals per square mile) Constant N log likelihood a Dependent variable. b Years of data. R.B. Noland / Accident Analysis and Prevention 35 (2003)

6 Table 3 Fixed effect negative binomial regressions with seat-belt use variable (A) (B) (C) (D) DEATHS a ( ) b INJURED a ( ) b DEATHS a ( ) b INJURED a ( ) b Coefficient t-statistics Coefficient t-statistics Coefficient t-statistics Coefficient t-statistics Infrastructure variables log(total lane miles) log(average number of interstate lanes) log(average number of arterial lanes) log(average number of collector lanes) log(interstate lane miles (%)) log(arterial lane miles (%)) log(collector lane miles (%)) log(arterials with lane widths of 9 ft or less (%)) log(arterials with lane widths of 10 ft (%)) log(arterials with lane widths of 11 ft (%)) log(arterials with lane widths of 12 ft or greater (%)) log(collectors with lane widths of 9 ft or less (%)) log(collectors with lane widths of 10 ft (%)) log(collectors with lane widths of 11 ft (%)) log(collectors with lane widths of 12 ft or greater (%)) Demographic and trend variables log(population aged years) log(population over age 75 years (%)) log(per capita income) log(population) Year Other variables log(per capita alcohol consumption) log(seat-belt use (%)) log(white infant mortality) log(hospitals per square mile) Constant N log likelihood a Dependent variable. b Years of data. 604 R.B. Noland / Accident Analysis and Prevention 35 (2003)

8 606 R.B. Noland / Accident Analysis and Prevention 35 (2003) Table 5 Coefficients on lane width variables when modelled individually Fatality models Injury models Arterials with lane widths of 9 ft or less (%) ( 0.24) ( 2.99) Arterials with 10 ft lane widths (%) ( 2.25) ( 3.94) Arterials with 11 ft lane widths (%) ( 2.60) ( 3.28) Arterials with lane widths of 11 ft or less (%) ( 2.97) ( 4.03) Arterials with lane widths of 12 ft or greater (%) (1.72) (1.85) Collectors with lane widths of 9 ft or less (%) ( 2.82) ( 3.15) Collectors with 10 ft lane widths (%) ( 0.37) ( 0.61) Collectors with 11 ft lane widths (%) ( 2.83) ( 4.40) Collectors with lane widths of 11 ft or less (%) ( 2.07) ( 0.21) Collectors with lane widths of 12 ft or greater (%) (2.63) (1.71) t-statistics is in parentheses. and collector lane miles. The models in Table 2 suggest that more arterial lane miles results in more fatalities with model 2-A being significant and model 2-C having a positive but insignificant coefficient. Tables 3 and 4 do not have significant effects on this variable. Collector lane miles lead to more fatalities and injuries in the models of Table 2, but show no significant effect in the models of Tables 3 and 4 with shorter times series. Arterial roads are generally considered less safe than most other road categories (primarily due to poor access control) and these results tend to support that conclusion. Increasing the lane widths of roads is normally seen as a strategy for reducing accidents. Those states with more arterials with lane widths of 9 ft or less have fewer traffic injuries, as is shown by the statistical significance of the coefficient in models 2-B and 3-B and the negative sign in models 2-D and 3-D. The coefficient on this variable is generally not significant for the fatality models with the exception of the model in Table 4. The coefficients for arterials with lane widths of 10 ft are all negative and often significant in Table 2 for both injuries and fatalities. The coefficients for arterials with lane widths of 11 ft are also negative and significant (in Table 2). The coefficient for arterial lane widths of 12 ft or greater is also not significant for either injuries or fatalities. For collector lane widths we see a similar, but slightly different pattern. The coefficient for collectors with lane widths of 9 ft or less are negative and significant indicating that smaller lane widths reduce both fatalities and injuries. For 10 ft lane widths there is generally no statistical significance, though in Table 3 the coefficients on the injury models are negative and significant. For 11 ft lane widths there is also generally a negative and significant effect. The coefficient for lane widths of 12 ft or greater on collectors is positive and in some cases significant for fatalities (Table 3). The data on the lane width variables was also analysed by including only one of the corresponding variables in each model. This was done due to correlations between some of the lane width variables. Generally, the correlations between these variables were about 0.50 with only 3 of the 28 correlations exceeding In Table 5, these coefficient values and their test statistic are shown for 20 different models Table 6 Hypothesised and modelled effect of infrastructure variables Fatalities Injuries Engineering hypothesis Results of analysis Engineering hypothesis Results of analysis Total lane miles + + Average interstate lanes + Average arterial lanes + Average collector lanes + Interstate lane miles (%) Arterial lane miles (%) Collector lane miles (%) + + Arterials with 9 ft or less lane widths (%) + + Arterials with 10 ft lane widths (%) + + Arterials with 11 ft lane widths (%) Arterials with 12 ft or greater lane widths (%) Collectors with 9 ft or less lane widths (%) + + Collectors with 10 ft lane widths (%) + + Collectors with 11 ft lane widths (%) Collectors with 12 ft or greater lane widths (%) + Positive and significant effect: +; negative and significant effect: ; insignificant effect:.

11 Table 7 Estimated changes in fatalities and injuries using elasticity values (results from models 2-C and 2-D) Fatality elasticity Injury elasticity Change in 1985 fatalities with 1997 values of each variable Confidence range of estimate (95%) Change in 1985 injuries with 1997 values of each variable Confidence range of estimate (95%) Total lane miles a a a a Average interstate lanes a a a a Average arterial lanes a a a a Average collector lanes Interstate lane miles (%) a a a a Arterial lane miles (%) a a a a Collector lane miles (%) Arterials with 9 ft or less lane widths (%) a a a a Arterials with 10 ft lane widths (%) Arterials with 11 ft lane widths (%) a a a a a a a a Arterials with 12 ft or greater lane widths (%) a a a a a a a a Collectors with 9 ft or less lane widths (%) Collectors with 10 ft lane widths (%) a a a a a a a a Collectors with 11 ft lane widths (%) Collectors with 12 ft or greater lane widths (%) a a a a Total for lane width variables Total for infrastructure variables Average per capita income Total population a a a a Total (%) of aged years Total (%) aged over 75 years Per capita alcohol consumption a a a a White infant mortality a a a a Hospitals per square mile Seat-belt use (model 4-C, 3-D, based on 1996 value) a a a a a Not significant at 90% level (one-tailed test). R.B. Noland / Accident Analysis and Prevention 35 (2003)

13 R.B. Noland / Accident Analysis and Prevention 35 (2003) no Transportation Research Board, National Research Council, National Academy Press, Washington, DC. Miaou, S.P., Lum, H., Modeling vehicle accidents and highway geometric design relationships. Accident Anal. Prev. 25 (6), Milton, J., Mannering, F., The relationship among highway geometries, traffic-related elements and motor-vehicle accident frequencies. Transportation 25, Majumdar, A., Noland, R.B., Ochieng, W.Y., In: Paper Presented at the Annual Meeting of the European Science Association. Dortmund, Germany. Noland, R.B., Are reductions the result of Improvements in highway design standards? In: Proceedings of the Presentation at the 80th Annual Meeting of the Transportation Research Board on the Traffic Fatalities and Injuries, Paper no Peltzman, S., The effects of automobile safety regulation. J. Political Econ. 83, Porter, B.E., England, K.J., Predicting red-light running behaviour: a traffic study in three urban settings. J. Safety Res. 31 (1), 1 8. Sawalha, Z., Sayed, T., Evaluating safety of urban arterial roadways. J. Trans. Eng. 127 (2), Shankar, V., Mannering, F., Barfield, W., Effect of roadway geometrics and environmental factors on rural freeway accident frequencies. Accident Anal. Prev. 27 (3), Transportation Research Board, Designing Safer Roads: Practices for Resurfacing, Restoration, and Rehabilitation, Special Report 214. National Research Council, Washington, DC. US DOT, Highway Statistics Federal Highway Administration, Office of Highway Information Management, FHWA-PL US DOT, Buckle Up America The Presidential Initiative for Increasing Seat-belt Use Nation-wide, First Report to Congress, // Vitaliano, D.F., Held, J., Road accident external effects: an empirical assessment. Appl. Econ. 23, Wilde, G.J.S., The theory of risk homeostasis: implications for safety and health. Risk Anal. 2,

### Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency and Traffic Fatalities

Motor Vehicle Fuel Efficiency and Traffic Fatalities Robert B. Noland Centre for Transport Studies Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine London

### Odds That An Involved Driver Was Drinking: Best Indicator Of An Alcohol-Related Crash?

Odds That An Involved Driver Was Drinking: Best Indicator Of An Alcohol-Related Crash? A. S. Tippetts and R. B. Voas Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation 1171 Beltsville Drive, Suite 3, Calverton,

### Relation of Speed and Speed Limits to Crashes

Relation of Speed and Speed Limits to Crashes National Forum on Speeding Washington, D.C., June 15, 2005 Susan Ferguson, Ph.D. Overview Relation of speeds to crashes Relation of speed to crash severity

### Cost implications of no-fault automobile insurance. By: Joseph E. Johnson, George B. Flanigan, and Daniel T. Winkler

Cost implications of no-fault automobile insurance By: Joseph E. Johnson, George B. Flanigan, and Daniel T. Winkler Johnson, J. E., G. B. Flanigan, and D. T. Winkler. "Cost Implications of No-Fault Automobile

### THE EFFECT OF NO-FAULT ON FATAL ACCIDENT RATES

-xiii- SUMMARY Thirteen states currently either mandate no-fault auto insurance or allow drivers to choose between no-fault and tort insurance. No-fault auto insurance requires individuals to carry personal

### An analyses of pedestrian and bicycle casualties using regional panel data

Loughborough University Institutional Repository An analyses of pedestrian and bicycle casualties using regional panel data This item was submitted to Loughborough University's Institutional Repository

### DOT HS 812 101 December 2014. 2013 Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview 6.00 50,000. Fatality Rate per 100M VMT

TRAFFIC SAFETY FACTS Research Note DOT HS 812 101 December 2014 2013 Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview After an increase in motor vehicle crash fatalities in 2012, fatalities on U.S. roadways in 2013 resumed

### Analysis of Accident Statistics

Analysis of Accident Statistics I. BACKGROUND To ensure that safety objectives are met, a distinction must be made between: (1) locations which are hazardous as identified based on accident experiences,

### The effects of Michigan s weakened motorcycle helmet use law on insurance losses

Bulletin Vol. 30, No. 9 : April 2013 The effects of Michigan s weakened motorcycle helmet use law on insurance losses In April of 2012 the state of Michigan changed its motorcycle helmet law. The change

### ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO-LANE RURAL HIGHWAYS

ACCIDENT PREDICTION MODELS FOR TWO-LANE RURAL HIGHWAYS K. R. Kalokota Utah Transportation Center Utah State University Prianka N. Seneviratne Utah Transportation Center Utah State University May 1994 Acknowledgments

### Traffic Safety Facts. Laws. Motorcycle Helmet Use Laws. Inside This Issue. Key Facts. April 2004

Traffic Safety Facts Laws April 2004 Motorcycle Helmet Use Laws Motorcycle helmets provide the best protection from head injury for motorcyclists involved in traffic crashes. The passage of helmet use

### Effectiveness of Red Light Cameras in Tucson, AZ. PhotoTicketing.com. Ryan Denke, BSEE Peoria, AZ

Effectiveness of Red Light Cameras in Tucson, AZ PhotoTicketing.com Ryan Denke, BSEE Peoria, AZ Originally Published Oct 15, 215 Updated Oct 19, 215 INTRODUCTION The city of Tucson operates photo ticketing

### Behavioral Policies and Teen Traffic Safety

Behavioral Policies and Teen Traffic Safety By THOMAS S. DEE AND WILLIAM N. EVANS* Traffic fatalities are the leading cause of death among teens and young adults, accounting for one-third of all deaths

### The Relationship between Speed and Car Driver Injury Severity

Road Safety Web Publication 9 The Relationship between Speed and Car Driver Injury Severity D. Richards and R. Cuerden Transport Research Laboratory April 2009 Department for Transport: London Although

### Access Spacing and Accidents

Access Spacing and Accidents A Conceptual Analysis HERBERT S. LEVINSON Transportation Consultant 40 Hemlock Road New Haven, CT 06515 ABSTRACT This paper develops a method for predicting the safety of arterial

### DOT HS 811 856 November 2013. 2012 Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview. Fatality Rate per 100M VMT

TRAFFIC SAFETY FACTS Research Note DOT HS 811 856 November 2013 2012 Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview Motor vehicle crashes and fatalities increased in 2012 after six consecutive years of declining fatalities

### Intersection Cost Comparison Spreadsheet User Manual ROUNDABOUT GUIDANCE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION

Intersection Cost Comparison Spreadsheet User Manual ROUNDABOUT GUIDANCE VIRGINIA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Version 2.5 i Virginia Department of Transportation Intersection Cost Comparison Spreadsheet

### Estimating the effect of projected changes in the driving population on collision claim frequency

Bulletin Vol. 29, No. 8 : September 2012 Estimating the effect of projected changes in the driving population on collision claim frequency Despite having higher claim frequencies than prime age drivers,

### EXPLORING SINGLE VEHICLE CRASH SEVERITY ON RURAL, TWO-LANE HIGHWAYS WITH CRASH-LEVEL AND OCCUPANT-LEVEL MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODELS

EXPLORING SINGLE VEHICLE CRASH SEVERITY ON RURAL, TWO-LANE HIGHWAYS WITH CRASH-LEVEL AND OCCUPANT-LEVEL MULTINOMIAL LOGIT MODELS by Yunqi Zhang A thesis submitted to the faculty of The University of Utah

### MISSOURI TRAFFIC SAFETY COMPENDIUM

2010 MISSOURI TRAFFIC SAFETY COMPENDIUM MISSOURI STATE HIGHWAY PATROL STATISTICAL ANALYSIS CENTER 1510 East Elm Jefferson City, Missouri 65101 (573) 751-9000 CONTENTS PAGE EXECUTIVE SUMMARY INTRODUCTION...1

### Traffic Safety Facts Research Note

1 Traffic Safety Facts Research Note DOT HS 811 218 November 2009 Fatal Crashes Involving Summary Fatalities from crashes involving young drivers have accounted for just under one-fifth of all fatalities

### DOT HS 809 360 October 2001

U.S. Department of Transportation National Highway Traffic Safety Administration DOT HS 809 360 October 2001 Technical Report This document is available to the public from the National Technical Information

### HERS_IN. HIGHWAY ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS SYSTEM (for) INDIANA. AASHTO Transportation Estimator Association Conference October 16, 2001

AASHTO Transportation Estimator Association Conference October 16, 2001 HERS_IN HIGHWAY ECONOMIC REQUIREMENTS SYSTEM (for) INDIANA OVERVIEW HERS Background System Planning Tool Development HERS_IN Structure

### Chapter Forty-seven. RURAL TWO-LANE/MULTILANE STATE HIGHWAYS (New Construction/Reconstruction) BUREAU OF DESIGN AND ENVIRONMENT MANUAL

Chapter Forty-seven RURAL TWO-LANE/MULTILANE STATE HIGHWAYS (New Construction/Reconstruction) BUREAU OF DESIGN AND ENVIRONMENT MANUAL Illinois RURAL TWO-LANE/MULTILANE STATE HIGHWAYS December 2009 2 Illinois

### VEHICLE SURVIVABILITY AND TRAVEL MILEAGE SCHEDULES

DOT HS 809 952 January 2006 Technical Report VEHICLE SURVIVABILITY AND TRAVEL MILEAGE SCHEDULES Published By: NHTSA s National Center for Statistics and Analysis This document is available to the public

### DOT HS 812 070 September 2014

TRAFFIC SAFETY FACTS 2012 Data DOT HS 812 070 September 2014 Passenger A passenger vehicle is a motor vehicle weighing less than 10,000 pounds; the category includes passenger cars and light trucks (pickup

### The Effect of Increased Speed Limits in the Post-NMSL Era

Report to Congress The Effect of Increased Speed Limits in the Post-NMSL Era National Highway Traffic Safety Administration Federal Highway Administration U. S. Department of Transportation Washington,

### THE EFFECTS OF MANDATORY SEAT BELT LAWS ON DRIVING BEHAVIOR AND TRAFFIC FATALITIES. Alma Cohen Liran Einav. Discussion Paper No.

ISSN 1045-6333 THE EFFECTS OF MNDTORY SET BELT LWS ON DRIVING BEHVIOR ND TRFFIC FTLITIES lma Cohen Liran Einav Discussion Paper No. 341 11/2001 Harvard Law School Cambridge, M 02138 The Center for Law,

### Analysis of Accidents by Older Drivers in Japan

Analysis of Accidents by Older Drivers in Japan Kazumoto Morita 1, Michiaki Sekine 1 1 National Traffic Safety and Environment Laboratory, Japan Abstract Since Japan is a rapidly aging society, ensuring

### Oxfordshire Local Transport Plan 2011-2030 Revised April 2012. Objective 3 Reduce casualties and the dangers associated with travel

6. Road Safety Objective 3 Reduce casualties and the dangers associated with travel Road safety continues to be a core priority both nationally and locally reflecting the very high human and other costs

### Graduated Driver Licensing Laws and Insurance Collision Claim Frequencies of Teenage Drivers. Rebecca E. Trempel

Graduated Driver Licensing Laws and Insurance Collision Claim Frequencies of Teenage Drivers Rebecca E. Trempel November 2009 ABSTRACT Objectives. This study examined the effect of different graduated

### BEST PRACTICES FOR PLANNING AND DESIGN OF FREEWAY FACILITIES

1 BEST PRACTICES FOR PLANNING AND DESIGN OF FREEWAY FACILITIES 1. PREAMBLE 1.1 Function of Freeways For purposes of this paper, freeways are defined as high capacity, high speed, multi-lane roadways with

### Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System

Crash Outcome Data Evaluation System HEALTH AND COST OUTCOMES RESULTING FROM TRAUMATIC BRAIN INJURY CAUSED BY NOT WEARING A HELMET, FOR MOTORCYCLE CRASHES IN WISCONSIN, 2011 Wayne Bigelow Center for Health

### Factors affecting road crash modeling

Journal of Transport Literature, 9(2), 15-19, Apr. 2015. ISSN 2238-1031 Factors affecting road crash modeling Malaya Mohanty + ; Ankit Gupta National Institute of Technology Hamirpur, Hamirpur, India Article

### Earnings Announcement and Abnormal Return of S&P 500 Companies. Luke Qiu Washington University in St. Louis Economics Department Honors Thesis

Earnings Announcement and Abnormal Return of S&P 500 Companies Luke Qiu Washington University in St. Louis Economics Department Honors Thesis March 18, 2014 Abstract In this paper, I investigate the extent

### Online Appendix to Are Risk Preferences Stable Across Contexts? Evidence from Insurance Data

Online Appendix to Are Risk Preferences Stable Across Contexts? Evidence from Insurance Data By LEVON BARSEGHYAN, JEFFREY PRINCE, AND JOSHUA C. TEITELBAUM I. Empty Test Intervals Here we discuss the conditions

### Knowledge and Data in Road Safety Management - Research at the Center for Road Safety

Knowledge and Data in Road Safety Management - Research at the Center for Road Safety by Andrew Tarko Professor of Civil Engineering Director of Center for Road Safety School of Civil Engineering Purdue

### A Primer on Forecasting Business Performance

A Primer on Forecasting Business Performance There are two common approaches to forecasting: qualitative and quantitative. Qualitative forecasting methods are important when historical data is not available.

### Highway Loss Data Institute Bulletin

Highway Loss Data Institute Bulletin Helmet Use Laws and Medical Payment Injury Risk for Motorcyclists with Collision Claims VOL. 26, NO. 13 DECEMBER 29 INTRODUCTION According to the National Highway Traffic

### Evaluation of Frequency and Injury Outcomes of Lane Departure Crashes

University of Massachusetts Traffic Safety Research Program www.ecs.umass.edu/umasssafe Evaluation of Frequency and Injury Outcomes of Lane Departure Crashes Marta Benavente, Heather Rothenberg, Michael

### DRIVER ATTRIBUTES AND REAR-END CRASH INVOLVEMENT PROPENSITY

U.S. Department of Transportation National Highway Traffic Safety Administration DOT HS 809 540 March 2003 Technical Report DRIVER ATTRIBUTES AND REAR-END CRASH INVOLVEMENT PROPENSITY Published By: National

### Motor Vehicle Crashes, Injuries, and Deaths in Relation to Driver Age: United States, 1995 2010

Car crashes rank among the leading causes of death in the United States. Motor Vehicle Crashes, Injuries, and Deaths in Relation to Driver Age: United States, 1995 2010 November 2012 607 14th Street, NW,

### Simultaneous Equation Models As discussed last week, one important form of endogeneity is simultaneity. This arises when one or more of the

Simultaneous Equation Models As discussed last week, one important form of endogeneity is simultaneity. This arises when one or more of the explanatory variables is jointly determined with the dependent

### Collision Prediction Models For British Columbia

Collision Prediction Models For British Columbia Prepared For: Engineering Branch BC Ministry of Transportation & Infrastructure Tarek Sayed, PhD, P.Eng., Professor of Civil Engineering University of British

### ESTIMATING AN ECONOMIC MODEL OF CRIME USING PANEL DATA FROM NORTH CAROLINA BADI H. BALTAGI*

JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMETRICS J. Appl. Econ. 21: 543 547 (2006) Published online in Wiley InterScience (www.interscience.wiley.com). DOI: 10.1002/jae.861 ESTIMATING AN ECONOMIC MODEL OF CRIME USING PANEL

### H. The Study Design. William S. Cash and Abigail J. Moss National Center for Health Statistics

METHODOLOGY STUDY FOR DETERMINING THE OPTIMUM RECALL PERIOD FOR THE REPORTING OF MOTOR VEHICLE ACCIDENTAL INJURIES William S. Cash and Abigail J. Moss National Center for Health Statistics I. Introduction

### November 2003 DOT HS

Traffic Safety Facts Research Note November 23 DOT HS 89 698 Moving Children from the Front Seat to the Back Seat: The Influence of Child Safety Campaigns John Kindelberger and Marc Starnes* Since 1995,

### THE MOBILITY AND SAFETY OF OLDER DRIVERS IN BRITAIN. Mitchell, Christopher (Kit)

THE MOBILITY AND SAFETY OF OLDER DRIVERS IN BRITAIN Mitchell, Christopher (Kit) Retired: 17 Tavistock Road, Fleet, Hampshire GU51 4EH, UK Email: kitmitch@googlemail.com Abstract Most journeys by older

### 2008 Traffic Safety Annual Assessment Highlights. Fatality Rate per 100M VMT

1 Traffic Safety Facts Crash Stats DOT HS 811 172 A Brief Statistical Summary June 29 28 Traffic Safety Annual Assessment Highlights The number of traffic fatalities in 28 reached its lowest level since

### Yao Zheng University of New Orleans. Eric Osmer University of New Orleans

ABSTRACT The pricing of China Region ETFs - an empirical analysis Yao Zheng University of New Orleans Eric Osmer University of New Orleans Using a sample of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that focus on investing

### MULTIPLE REGRESSION AND ISSUES IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS

MULTIPLE REGRESSION AND ISSUES IN REGRESSION ANALYSIS MSR = Mean Regression Sum of Squares MSE = Mean Squared Error RSS = Regression Sum of Squares SSE = Sum of Squared Errors/Residuals α = Level of Significance

### Car Insurance: Is No-Fault the Answer? Ryan C. Hayward The College of New Jersey

Car Insurance: Is No-Fault the Answer? Ryan C. Hayward The College of New Jersey I. Introduction A brief examination of auto-insurance rates shows that some of the highest premiums paid in the country

### Characteristics of Motorcycle Crashes in the U.S.

Characteristics of Motorcycle Crashes in the U.S. Jeya Padmanaban, M.S. JP Research Inc., USA. 7 West El Camino Real, Suite 2 Mountain View, CA, 944 jeya@jpresearch.com Vitaly Eyges, PhD., JP Research,

### Motorcycle ABS and time to claim

Bulletin Vol. 29, No. 4 : April 2012 Motorcycle ABS and time to claim Antilock braking systems (ABS) have previously been shown to reduce motorcycle collision claim frequencies. The current study examines

### MPC-452 April 1, 2014- July 31, 2017

MPC-452 April 1, 2014- July 31, 2017 Project Title: Updating the Highway Safety Manual 2010 - Part C: Regional Consideration of the Rocky Mountains and Plain Regions University: University of Wyoming Principal

### NEW ZEALAND INJURY PREVENTION STRATEGY SERIOUS INJURY OUTCOME INDICATORS

NEW ZEALAND INJURY PREVENTION STRATEGY SERIOUS INJURY OUTCOME INDICATORS 166 MOTOR VEHICLE CRASHES IN NEW ZEALAND 2012 CONTENTS TABLES Table 1 New Zealand Injury Prevention Strategy serious outcome indicators

### # % # & ())! +,,, # ) (. / 0 1 ) / 2 3 4 ) )/)

! # % # & ())! +,,, # ) (. / 0 1 ) / 2 3 4 ) )/) 5 Hess & Polak 1 An Analysis of the Effects of Speed Limit Enforcement Cameras on Accident Rates Stephane Hess and John Polak Centre for Transport Studies

### Introduction. Seatbelt Use Following Stricter Drunk Driving Regulations. Introduction. Background: Seatbelt Laws

Introduction Following Stricter Drunk Driving Regulations Chad D Cotti University of Connecticut Project Co-Authors: Nathan Tefft, University of Washington and Scott Adams, University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee

### Roadway and Human Factors of Motorcycle Crashes in Puerto Rico

Fifth LACCEI International Latin American and Caribbean Conference for Engineering and Technology (LACCEI 2007) Developing Entrepreneurial Engineers for the Sustainable Growth of Latin America and the

### The impact of graduated driver licensing restrictions on young driver crashes in New Zealand

The impact of graduated driver licensing restrictions on young driver crashes in New Zealand Begg, D.J.; Alsop, J. Langley, J.D. Injury Prevention Research Unit Department of Preventive and Social Medicine

### Word Count: Body Text = 5,500 + 2,000 (4 Figures, 4 Tables) = 7,500 words

PRIORITIZING ACCESS MANAGEMENT IMPLEMENTATION By: Grant G. Schultz, Ph.D., P.E., PTOE Assistant Professor Department of Civil & Environmental Engineering Brigham Young University 368 Clyde Building Provo,

### Statement before the Maryland House Environmental Matters Committee. Motorcycle Helmet Laws. Michael Fagin

Statement before the Maryland House Environmental Matters Committee Motorcycle Helmet Laws Michael Fagin The Insurance Institute for Highway Safety is a nonprofit research and communications organization

### DOT HS 811 701 December 2012. 2011 Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview. Fatality Rate per 100M VMT

TRAFFIC SAFETY FACTS Research Note DOT HS 811 71 December 212 211 Motor Vehicle Crashes: Overview In 211, 32,367 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes in the United States the lowest number of fatalities

### Relationship of Lane Width to Safety for Urban and Suburban Arterials

Relationship of Lane Width to Safety for Urban and Suburban Arterials Ingrid B. Potts Principal Traffic Engineer Midwest Research Institute 425 Volker Boulevard Kansas City, MO 64110-2299 Tel: (816) 360-5284

### Spatial Distribution and Characteristics of Accident Crashes at Work Zones of Interstate Freeways in Ohio

Proceedings of the IEEE ITSC 26 26 IEEE Intelligent Transportation Systems Conference Toronto, Canada, September 17-2, 26 WB7.5 Spatial Distribution and Characteristics of Accident Crashes at Work Zones

### 2. Methods. 2.2. Creation of dataset for analysis. This study was approved by the University of Utah Institutional

Accident Analysis and Prevention 36 (2004) 223 229 Effect of repeal of the national maximum speed limit law on occurrence of crashes, injury crashes, and fatal crashes on Utah highways Donald D. Vernon

### Evaluation of motorcycle antilock braking systems, alone and in conjunction with combined control braking systems

Bulletin Vol. 30, No. 10 : April 2013 Evaluation of motorcycle antilock braking systems, alone and in conjunction with combined control braking systems Previous studies have shown that antilock braking

### Pedestrian and Bicycle Crash Data Analysis: 2005-2010

MICHIGAN DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION Pedestrian and Bicycle Crash Data Analysis: 2005-2010 FINAL REPORT Prepared by: T.Y. Lin International and Western Michigan University 4/3/2012 TABLE OF CONTENTS List

T R A F F I C I N J U R Y R E S E A R C H F O U N D A T I O N THE ROAD SAFETY MONITOR 2013 DRINKING AND DRIVING IN CANADA The knowledge source for safe driving THE TRAFFIC INJURY RESEARCH FOUNDATION The

### SEVERITY ANALYSIS OF DRIVER CRASH INVOLVEMENTS ON MULTILANE HIGH SPEED ARTERIAL CORRIDORS

SEVERITY ANALYSIS OF DRIVER CRASH INVOLVEMENTS ON MULTILANE HIGH SPEED ARTERIAL CORRIDORS by ALEXIS NEVAREZ-PAGAN B.Sc. University of Central Florida, 1997 A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of

### Based on the AASHTO: PREPARED FOR

Based on the AASHTO: Ne va da PREPARED FOR Pr oj P R ec t O C Sa E S fety S September 2015 Introduction The Nevada Department of Transportation (NDOT) has as its first department goal to optimize safety

### ALCOHOL, 2013 HIGHLIGHTS

ALCOHOL, 2013 JUNE 2014 ISSUE 14-C08 HIGHLIGHTS During 2013, there were 114 fatal alcohol-impaired collisions in the state (16 percent of all fatal collisions). Alcohol-impaired fatal collisions decreased

### TH 23 Access Management Study Richmond to Paynesville

TH 23 Access Management Study Richmond to Paynesville Prepared For: Minnesota Department of Transportation District 8 Prepared By: Short Elliott Hendrickson Inc. July 2015 Table of Contents I. Introduction...

### TRAVEL BEHAVIOR ISSUES RELATED TO NEO-TRADITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS A REVIEW OF THE RESEARCH

TRAVEL BEHAVIOR ISSUES RELATED TO NEO-TRADITIONAL DEVELOPMENTS A REVIEW OF THE RESEARCH SUSAN HANDY University of Texas School of Architecture Goldsmith Hall Austin, TX 78712-1160 At first glance, it may

### Factors Influencing Night-time Drivers Perceived Likelihood of Getting Caught for Drink- Driving

T2007 Seattle, Washington Factors Influencing Night-time Drivers Perceived Likelihood of Getting Caught for Drink- Driving Jean Wilson *1, Ming Fang 1, Gabi Hoffmann 2. 1 Insurance Corporation of British

### CITY OF MILWAUKEE POLICE SATISFACTION SURVEY

RESEARCH BRIEF Joseph Cera, PhD Survey Center Director UW-Milwaukee Atiera Coleman, MA Project Assistant UW-Milwaukee CITY OF MILWAUKEE POLICE SATISFACTION SURVEY At the request of and in cooperation with

### Estimating the Risk of Collisions between Bicycles and Motor Vehicles at Signalized Intersections

Estimating the Risk of Collisions between Bicycles and Motor Vehicles at Signalized Intersections Yinhai Wang (corresponding author) Department of Civil Engineering University of Washington Box 352700,

### Effects of Youth, Price, and Audience Size on Alcohol Advertising in Magazines

Effects of Youth, Price, and Audience Size on Alcohol Advertising in Magazines Summary We study the effects of youth readership, price of advertisements, and audience size on alcohol advertising in thirty-five

### The Determinants of Used Rental Car Prices

Sung Jin Cho / Journal of Economic Research 10 (2005) 277 304 277 The Determinants of Used Rental Car Prices Sung Jin Cho 1 Hanyang University Received 23 August 2005; accepted 18 October 2005 Abstract

### Characteristics of High Injury Severity Crashes on 80 110 km/h Rural Roads in South Australia

Characteristics of High Injury Crashes on 80 110 km/h Rural Roads in South Australia, J. R. R. Centre for Automotive Safety Research, University of Adelaide, SOUTH AUSTRALIA, 5005 email: jamie@casr.adelaide.edu.au

### Safety Performance Functions

Safety Performance Functions FINAL REPORT October 8, 2014 By Eric Donnell, Vikash Gayah, and Paul Jovanis The Thomas D. Larson Pennsylvania Transportation Institute COMMONWEALTH OF PENNSYLVANIA DEPARTMENT

### example, does protection from safety belts, air bags, and antilock brakes lead to more risky

1. Do We Compensate for Safety? When people feel more protected do they adjust their behavior and take more risks? For example, does protection from safety belts, air bags, and antilock brakes lead to

### STATEMENT ON ESTIMATING THE MORTALITY BURDEN OF PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL

COMMITTEE ON THE MEDICAL EFFECTS OF AIR POLLUTANTS STATEMENT ON ESTIMATING THE MORTALITY BURDEN OF PARTICULATE AIR POLLUTION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL SUMMARY 1. COMEAP's report 1 on the effects of long-term

### NEW ZEALAND INJURY PREVENTION STRATEGY SERIOUS INJURY OUTCOME INDICATORS

NEW ZEALAND INJURY PREVENTION STRATEGY SERIOUS INJURY OUTCOME INDICATORS 168 MOTOR VEHICLE CRASHES IN NEW ZEALAND 213 CONTENTS TABLES Table 1 New Zealand Injury Prevention Strategy serious outcome indicators

### Business Statistics. Successful completion of Introductory and/or Intermediate Algebra courses is recommended before taking Business Statistics.

Business Course Text Bowerman, Bruce L., Richard T. O'Connell, J. B. Orris, and Dawn C. Porter. Essentials of Business, 2nd edition, McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2008, ISBN: 978-0-07-331988-9. Required Computing

### Pedestrian Crash Facts

North Carolina Pedestrian Crash Facts 2008-2012 Prepared for The North Carolina Department of Transportation Division of Bicycle and Pedestrian Transportation Prepared by The University of North Carolina

### Safety Data Collection, Analysis, and Sharing

Safety Data Collection, Analysis, and Sharing About the HSIP Noteworthy Practice Series The Highway Safety Improvement Program (HSIP) is a core Federal-aid highway program with the primary purpose of achieving

### Year Fatalities Injuries

MOTORCYCLES, 2013 MAY 2014 ISSUE 14-C02 HIGHLIGHTS In 2013, the 113 Indiana fatal collisions involving motorcycles resulted in 118 fatalities. The 118 fatalities involved 81 motorcycle operators, 23 moped

### COMMONWEALTH OF PUERTO RICO OFFICE OF THE COMMISSIONER OF INSURANCE RULE 71

COMMONWEALTH OF PUERTO RICO OFFICE OF THE COMMISSIONER OF INSURANCE RULE 71 SYSTEM FOR THE INITIAL DETERMINATION OF LIABILITY UNDER COMPULSORY MOTOR VEHICLE LIABILITY INSURANCE SECTION 1. LEGAL BASIS This

### Trends in Impaired Driving in the United States: Complacency and Backsliding?

Trends in Impaired Driving in the United States: Complacency and Backsliding? K. Stewart 1 and J. Fell 2 1 Safety and Policy Analysis, International, 3798 Mosswood Drive, Lafayette, CA 94549, USA; 2 Pacific

### ELASTICITY OF LONG DISTANCE TRAVELLING

Mette Aagaard Knudsen, DTU Transport, mak@transport.dtu.dk ELASTICITY OF LONG DISTANCE TRAVELLING ABSTRACT With data from the Danish expenditure survey for 12 years 1996 through 2007, this study analyses

### How Do Euro NCAP Results Correlate with Real-Life Injury Risks? A Paired Comparison Study of Car-to-Car Crashes

Traffic Injury Prevention, 3:288 293, 2002 Copyright C 2002 Taylor & Francis 1538-9588/02 \$12.00 +.00 DOI: 10.1080/15389580290129044 How Do Euro NCAP Results Correlate with Real-Life Injury Risks? A Paired

### FACULTY RETIREMENT PLANS: THE ROLE OF RETIREE HEALTH INSURANCE

TRENDS AND ISSUES SEPTEMBER 2015 FACULTY RETIREMENT PLANS: THE ROLE OF RETIREE HEALTH INSURANCE Robert L. Clark Zelnak Professor Poole College of Management North Carolina State University Retiree health

### ANALYSIS OF INJURY SEVERITY IN PEDESTRIAN CRASHES USING CLASSIFICATION REGRESSION TREES

ANALYSIS OF INJURY SEVERITY IN PEDESTRIAN CRASHES USING CLASSIFICATION REGRESSION TREES By Vichika Iragavarapu, P.E. (Corresponding author) Assistant Research Engineer Texas A&M Transportation Institute,

### PREDICTING THE USED CAR SAFETY RATINGS CRASHWORTHINESS RATING FROM ANCAP SCORES

PREDICTING THE USED CAR SAFETY RATINGS CRASHWORTHINESS RATING FROM ANCAP SCORES by Stuart Newstead and Jim Scully April 2012 Report No. 309 Project Sponsored By The Vehicle Safety Research Group ii MONASH

### What roundabout design provides the highest possible safety?

What roundabout design provides the highest possible safety? In Sweden, as in several other countries, the number of roundabouts is on the increase. According to a study recently carried out by the VTI,

### Cycling Promotion and Cycling Safety: Is there a conflict? C.Woolsgrove *

Proceedings, International Cycling Safety Conference 2012 7-8 November 2012, Helmond, The Netherlands Cycling Promotion and Cycling Safety: Is there a conflict? C.Woolsgrove * * European Cyclists Federation