THE GREAT EIGHT Trillion-Dollar Growth Trends to 2020

Transcription

1 THE GREAT EIGHT Trillion-Dollar Growth Trends to 22

2 Copyright 211 Bain & Company, Inc. All rights reserved. Content: Global Editorial Layout: Global Design

3 Contents Introduction...pg The next billion consumers...pg Old infrastructure, new investments...pg Militarization following industrialization...pg Growing output of primary inputs...pg Developing human capital...pg Keeping the wealthy healthy...pg Everything the same, but nicer...pg Prepping for the next big thing...pg. 36 Page 1

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5 Eight trillion-dollar trends for the coming decade Daily turmoil on a global scale is giving business leaders and investors plenty of reasons to stay hunkered down as they confront huge challenges in the here and now. Spreading sovereign debt woes, volatile markets, unstable currencies, political gridlock and stalled growth plague the big developed economies. Meanwhile, China, India and other rapidly emerging economies are flexing their strength as they adjust to the phenomenal growth that has been the biggest economic story of the past two decades. In the conventional view, the current turbulence portends deep, enduring structural shifts that will set the business agenda for the foreseeable future. We fully expect macroeconomic shocks over the coming decade, with discontinuities that will shape the options companies have to adapt and grow (see Figure 1). Yet behind the dire headlines and day-to-day frictions of the marketplace, eight trillion-dollar macro trends are at work in the global economy (see Figures 2 and 3). The pursuit by businesses and governments of the macro trends growth potential will touch many corners of the globe. Europe, Japan and the US certainly face an extended period of economic turbulence and slow growth, particularly in the first half of the decade. But as we will see, half of the macro trends affect both emerging and advanced economies. Thus, while we embrace the exciting opportunities in emerging markets, we also see opportunities where many commentators see none right now in the home markets of many of the world s leading businesses. A shift in global growth. Although we will continue to see pockets of economic turbulence, look for the global economy to expand at a 3.6 percent annual rate over the longer term, resulting in world GDP swelling to $9 trillion by 22 4 percent larger than it is today. The sources of economic growth will tilt increasingly toward emerging economies. Whereas the advanced economies currently generate two-thirds of global GDP, developing and emerging economies will contribute an outsized share of the growth in the future. By 22, the advanced economies proportion of world GDP will drop to 58 percent, a sizable change over a relatively short period. The growth of world population by 75 million, nearly all of it originating in developing and emerging economies, will account for about one-quarter of the rise in GDP. Increased productivity will generate the rest, as per capita GDP grows by 3 percent over that period. But, while we expect the next few years to remain challenging in the West, we can see a path for growth to accelerate in the latter half of the decade, particularly if governments begin tackling their public and private debt burdens. Indeed, our analysis anticipates that Europe and the US will contribute an additional $8 trillion to global GDP by 22. Macro trend: The next billion consumers. The rising wealth of emerging economies will continue to bring a broader range of consumption goods to huge numbers of new consumers. More of them will cross the critical annual household income threshold of $5,, planting them in the ranks of the global middle class and enabling more discretionary spending. Although still considerably poorer than the middle-class consumers in the advanced economies, their vast numbers and increasing ability to devote more income to a broader range of goods and services will create an enormous new market. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 22: $1 trillion. Macro trend: Old infrastructure, new investments. In the advanced economies, renewed economic vitality will require refurbishing and expanding critical infrastructure, much of which was built more than a halfcentury ago. But with public finances under strain, the job will increasingly present opportunities for publicprivate partnerships. In emerging economies, continued infrastructure development will be needed to accommodate growth and lay a foundation for future expansion. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 22: $1 trillion. Page 3

6 Figure 1: Short-term and long-term risks Short-term risks reflect the tepid recovery from the late 2 s Great Recession Long-term risks reflect deeper global imbalances Slowdown in the US as the impact of extraordinary government interventions wanes Continued slow growth in Europe as the austerity programs necessary for greater fiscal unity weigh down economies, in combination with continuing pressure on the Euro and persistent weakness in the financial system Unsustainable growth rates in China are reflected in rising inflation rates, uneconomical projects and increasing concerns about bank asset quality Ongoing risk from Japan due both to recent catastrophes and long-term structural weakness Instability in capital markets due to: Global excess capital and hot money Concentration of ownership and deployment of capital Imbalances created prior to the Great Recession remain; adjustments to exchange rates and national economies are still needed to create sustainable trade and capital balances Concerns about sustainability due not only to resource constraints but also to lifestyle choices and rising levels of consumption High levels of debt, both national and household Increased geopolitical risks and instability in some regions Intensifying competition for finite resources. Population growth, increased manufacturing activity, urbanization and expanding prosperity will set off a scramble for basic goods, particularly food, water, energy and industrial commodities. Competition from emerging economies for the same access to raw materials currently dominated by the advanced economies will likely fuel geopolitical instability, as more nations seek to secure and defend vital supply lines. Businesses should continue to invest in scenario planning to prepare for shocks and maintain flexibility in their business models. Macro trend: Militarization following industrialization. As economic power tilts toward Asia, political and military power will shift as well. In China, where defense spending has trended upward in recent years, both in dollar terms and as a proportion of GDP, military outlays reached some $16 billion in 21 a 6.7 percent increase over the previous year, according to the latest available data. The stepped up spending is prompting China s neighbors to respond with bigger defense budgets, increasing the risk of conflict over shipping lanes in the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea. The military buildups will present near-term opportunities for arms sales for US and European producers until the purchasing countries can ramp up domestic armaments production. Meanwhile, both nations and businesses are increasing spending on countermeasures to meet the ongoing risk of terrorism by non-state actors, insurgent threats in war zones, and the new challenges of cyber and electronic warfare. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 22: $1 trillion. Macro trend: Growing output of primary inputs. Growing demand among more nations for oil and natural gas, grains and proteins, fresh water and extracted ores, such as copper, aluminum and rare earth metals, will create price volatility and transient shortages of a few of these commodities over the coming decade. Volatility and commodity price inflation will intensify as these key inputs are increasingly linked by new uses and as demand rises. For example, corn is now a major source of ethanol for transportation as well as a food crop. More water is diverted for use in the extraction of ores and fuel. Ores are finding their way into Page 4

7 Figure 2: Eight macro trends will propel global economic growth over the coming decade The Great Eight: macro trends through Old infrastructure, 3 Militarization following 4 The next billion consumers new investments industrialization Growing output of primary inputs 5 6 Keeping the 7 Everything the same, 8 Developing human capital wealthy healthy but nicer Prepping for the next big thing Source: Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, 211 the manufacture of wind turbines to generate clean energy. And more fuel will be consumed in the desalination of new potable water sources. Investment in conservation measures, alternative supplies and technologies will increase in some areas, though new fossil fuel sources will reduce economic incentives to invest in alternative energy. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 22: $3 trillion. Smarter, healthier populations. Potentially the most powerful long-term growth force of all is the engine of human capital development, which drives economies forward and, through the deeper specialization and greater division of labor it enables, can break through resource constraints. Growth in most emerging economies is outpacing investments in their people s health and education, creating potential constraints to growth but also opportunities to fill the gap. Macro trend: Developing human capital. The massive population shift from farm to factory has altered the social landscape in the fast-growing emerging economies, but social infrastructure has not kept pace. Broadening access to education and improving its quality over the coming decade will be crucial if those economies will successfully navigate the transition to a higher value-added service and technology-based economy. Likewise, building a basic healthcare delivery system and weaving a stronger social safety net will absorb a far higher proportion of investment than in the past. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 22: $2 trillion. Macro trend: Keeping the wealthy healthy. Aging populations in the advanced economies, more and better medical treatments, and changes in payment systems to make healthcare spending more efficient will spur innovation and reform. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 22: $4 trillion. A new wave of technological innovation. We are already beginning to see innovations that will change the way we live, work and play in the advanced economies, spurring the next generation of entrepreneurial Page 5

8 start-ups to bring novel products and services to market. Technologies like 3D printers will begin to unleash breakthroughs in manufacturing, enabling smaller batches of highly customized products at declining price points. Ongoing network and communications improvements will create the no-collar location-free worker, a technology-enabled change that will create interesting options for retaining elderly workers, for example. Juiced by such innovations, today s slow-growth advanced economies could accelerate onto a new growth trajectory in the coming decade, tracing an upward sweeping S-curve from its current plateau. Macro trend: Everything the same, but nicer. Innovation will increasingly come in new forms beyond novel technologies like ipads and Twitter. Look for businesses to invest more heavily in soft innovations, which will offer affluent customers premium products and services as substitutes for common consumer purchases, better products commanding higher prices and a greater variety of niche products. Soft innovations will change our basic habits, from the way we drink coffee (think mochaccinos rather than drip brew) to the way we buy clothes (with matching outfits delivered to our doorstep rather than shopped for piecemeal in stores). Innovators will create businesses based on these insights. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 22: $5 trillion. Macro trend: Prepping for the next big thing. Innovations tend to cluster in waves, and five potential platform technologies nanotechnology, genomics, artificial intelligence, robotics and ubiquitous connectivity show promise of flowering over the coming decade. In many cases, developments across technologies will be mutually reinforcing. For example, advances in nanotechnology will enable the enhanced computational power necessary for breakthroughs in artificial intelligence. Nanotechnology will also spawn new technologies for manipulating DNA, which will accelerate advancements in genomics. As technologies move from research concepts and prototypes to find applications in affordable consumer goods and industrial processes, mainly toward the end of the decade, they will generate step-change efficiency improvements that will accelerate growth. Estimated contribution to global GDP by 22: $1 trillion. As businesses ponder how best to position themselves to profit from the Great Eight macro trends, they will need to be mindful of these implications: The next billion consumers are not another billion. They are and will remain different than consumers in advanced markets, with median yearly household incomes remaining well under $2, throughout this decade. This market now holds the potential for large volume sales at lower price points and an important window of opportunity to influence the tastes of those transitioning into the middle class over the coming years. But emerging market consumers will seek a different basket of goods than those purchased by shoppers in advanced markets, due to their lower incomes. To target the new consumers effectively, multinational companies will need a different cost structure. They should also expect price points to remain at a lower level rather than assuming that buyers will migrate up the price ladder across all product categories. Don t give up on the West. Even as rapidly as their economies are expanding, China and India together will contribute little more than one-quarter of the next decade s forecasted $14 trillion growth in consumption. The US and other advanced economies will account for $6 trillion, or more than 4 percent of the total, and will continue to contain the majority of the global upper middle class. Their aging populations represent new challenges, not a petering out of opportunities. Not only will the advanced economies be a source of substantial growth, they may well be on the cusp of acceleration into a new S-curve after slowing down at the top of the last one. Soft innovation will reap profits. The coming decade will reward creative businesses that innovate by tweaking existing products and services into premium offerings. The possibilities of such soft innovations are as big as marketers imaginations covering everything from food and housewares to transportation and entertainment. They show up in retailing concepts like fast fashion and fast food. They are appearing in recreation, leisure and personal services even in public utilities where deregu- Page 6

9 Figure 3: We estimate that each of the eight will increase global GDP by at least $1 trillion, but just two account for half the expected growth Estimated contribution of the Great Eight macro trends to increase real (run rate) global GDP between 21 and 22 (forecast) $3T $11T $16T Advanced economies adjusting to age Total Next billion consumers Old infrastructure, Militaritization new following investments industrialization Growing output of primary inputs Develop human capital Keeping the wealthy healthy Everything the same, but nicer Prepping for the next big thing Developing economies catching up Note: All numbers rounded up to the nearest $1T Sources: IMF; Euromonitor; Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Yearbook 21; WSJ; UN; EIA; IEA; Datamonitor; Lit searches; World Bank; EIU; Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, 211 lation is opening opportunities for companies to differentiate their services on grounds other than price. Soft innovations are potent because they intersect with, and are enabled by, hard innovations like mobile devices and social networking. They amplify consumption by adding premium features that create new experiences customers are willing to pay for. Nearly every company will need to invest in soft innovations and the marketing, customer service and other soft skills that create them. If they do not, they will be left behind by their competitors who do. The war for talent will intensify. Population aging in the West and continuing economic advancement in China and India will result in a shortage of management talent that will be felt worldwide. Companies in advanced and emerging economies alike will share an increasingly mobile white-collar labor pool. Companies will also be vying for talent against the entrepreneurial opportunities that will be available to the cohort of young, well-educated workers. To remain globally competitive, companies will need to attract, develop and retain world-class talent. Part of the solution will be to make better use of the experience and skills of older workers and retirees, possibly leveraging technology that will make it easier for them to work on their own terms. Likewise, companies will need to develop flexible work models that will enable the growing proportion of women and their significant others in the skilled and managerial workforce, to balance career and family. Hiring, training and retaining skilled managers will become a more prominent point of competitive advantage. Businesses will need to devote significant energy to managing through the economy s current bumps, which may get even worse over the next few years. But as they maneuver through more near-term turbulence, they will also want to begin marshalling resources and positioning themselves to capitalize on these longerterm macro trends. Page 7

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11 What is behind the trend? China, followed by India and other emerging Asian economies, is creating a vast new population of consumers, whose growth will continue into the coming decade. 1. These consumers will breach the $5, annual household income level, while some will push deeper into the global middle class and consume even more. Yet this new middle class will be considerably poorer than today s middle class in the advanced economies. In China, for example, peak income will average about $18, per year in current dollars more like a giant Poland than another US. As a result, advanced economies will still account for 4 percent of the growth in consumer spending power. What does it mean for business? This is a large market but at a much lower price point for many purchases. Due to the new consumers relatively lower incomes, the overall basket of goods and services will differ from what consumers in advanced economies purchase. Companies will need to target emerging markets with a different cost structure. Expect price points to remain at a lower level rather than assuming migration upwards across all products. Marketers will have a transient opportunity to impact the tastes of those moving into the middle class. The next billion consumers: Big demand is coming on line, but the emerging market middle class will be poorer overall

12 Two-thirds of the population growth in the global middle class will come from just China and India World population with household income exceeding $5K USD Share of the 1.3B growth in global middle class between (forecast) 5B % Other APAC Philippines Vietnam 971M 292M Total= 1.3B Indonesia India All other Other MidEast Other LatAm Mexico Nigeria Ukraine USA Brazil 1 2 China Egypt Pakistan (forecast) Asia-Pacific Non-APAC *We use the $5, (USD) per year threshold for household disposable personal income to define minimum income necessary to participate in economic activity beyond subsistence Sources: Euromonitor; Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, 211 Yet, China, India and other developing countries will still be about 5 to 1 times poorer per capita than advanced countries Real GDP per capita $6K $58K $53K $47K $43K $44K 4 $37K 2 $15K $11K Brazil $4K China $9K $3K $5K Indonesia $1K $3K India USA Japan UK (forecast) Note: 21 USD price level at fixed exchange rates Sources: Euromonitor; Macro Trends Group analysis, 211 Page 1

13 so in terms of final consumption, China s and India s new consumers will contribute only a little more than one-fourth of total consumption growth through 22 Share of the growth in total final consumption between (forecast) 1% $6T $8T Total= $14T 8 6 Other advanced Canada Australia South Korea France United Kingdom Japan Egypt Other developing Turkey Mexico Indonesia Russia Brazil 4 India 2 USA China Advanced Developing Note: 21 USD price level at fixed exchange rates Sources: Euromonitor; Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, 211 The US will continue to dominate the ranks of the global upper-middle class Number of households, by disposable income band over time (income in thousands of USD) 225K Threshold for global upper-middle class * Threshold for global upper-middle class * > > (forecast) US China India Japan Brazil Russia Eurozone *Definition of global upper-middle class is inherently arbitrary and qualitative. For illustrative purposes here, we use the $35, per year threshold consistent with the starting point for most definitions of the US middle class Sources: Euromonitor; Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, 211 Page 11

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15 What is behind the trend? Much of the critical infrastructure in developed countries was built more than 5 years ago and needs to be replaced. 2. With public funds scarce, opportunities for public-private partnerships are likely to increase given adequate returns. For example, there has already been an upsurge in tollroad privatization. Developing nations will also need new infrastructure and new spending. For example, despite the prevalence of wireless, its bandwidth limitations prevent wireless from substituting for expensive new fiber optic lines for all purposes. China, the largest developing economy, may already suffer from overinvestment or misalignment of infrastructure. What does it mean for business? There will be major lower-risk investment opportunities in developed markets through public-private partnerships. Opportunities in developing nations, where governments fund and operate infrastructure investments, will likely be limited to providing indirect support through the provision of supplies and sales of heavy capital equipment. Old infrastructure, new investments: Urbanization in developing nations and obsolescence in developed nations will spur infrastructure spending

16 Global infrastructure demand impacts both advanced and developing markets Global infrastructure demand Advanced markets (replacement of aging infrastructure) Developing markets (new demand from urbanization) Outdated air traffic control systems Structurally deficient or functionally obsolete bridges Aging and potentially hazardous dams Water systems that are near the end of their useful life Power investment has not kept pace with power demand Rail bottlenecks as a result of growth and changes in demand patterns Major roads in poor condition and highway congestion Outdated levees with unknown reliability Waterway locks significantly past useful life Under-built public transit Aging wastewater systems that discharge billions of gallons of untreated wastewater Large-scale and rapid urbanization requires massive infrastructure and essential services build-outs: Water and waste water systems Roads and bridges Rail and transit systems Housing stock Sewerage and sanitation Solid waste management Emergency services (police, fire) Large-scale urbanization in India has put a severe strain on urban infrastructure like water supply, roads and transport, sewerage and sanitation, drainage and solid waste management, etc. Ministry of Urban Development, India, January 29 Sources: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Urbanization Prospects: The 27 Revision; American Society of Civil Engineers, Report Card for America s Infrastructure (25 & 29); Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, 211 After decades of declining fixed-capital investment, renewal of infrastructure will be required OECD government gross fixed capital formation as a percent of total government outlays OECD estimated change in run-rate investment spending, (forecast) 1% 9.5 $8B Electricity Water Roads Rail Telecom Total Sources: OECD, Infrastructure to 23 (26); Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, 211 Page 14

17 Cumulative infrastructure spending through 23 is expected to be $41 trillion, about half of it in advanced economy regions Projected cumulative infrastructure spending, % Middle East Africa Total= $41T North America* 8 Latin America 6 Europe 4 2 Asia-Pacific Water Power *Mexico is included in Latin America in this analysis Note: Investment needed to modernize obsolescent systems and meet expanding demand Sources: Cohen & Steers, Global Infrastructure Report 29: The $4 Trillion Challenge; OECD Infrastructure to 23 (26) Road & Rail Air/ Seaports Budget shortfalls in OECD countries will make alternative business models, such as public-private partnerships, increasingly common Government shortfalls must be supplemented by private investments Diversifying and expanding the public sector s traditional sources of revenue OECD government gross fixed capital formation as percent of total government outlays 1.% ~9 1% ~9 1% Governments are increasingly assisting private partners to ensure attractive investments Long-term contracts Estimated shortfall (~3%) Sustainable competitive advantages (barriers to entry) Low variable costs Low demand variability However, governments are also regulating these partnerships Proceeds from sale should be re-invested in infrastructure Private partner is held accountable for operational externalities Limited increases in pricing (of tolls). Average during 198s and 199s forecasted run rate Sources: OECD, Infrastructure to 23 (26); Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, 211 Page 15

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19 What is behind the trend? Because its growth depends on raw material and component imports, China is expanding its military to protect its supply chain. 3. China s spending is prompting spending increases in Japan, India and other countries. Increased military spending creates an elevated risk of local armed confl ict in the region. It would be unusual to have an entire decade devoid of any military conflict. Historically, the world has relied on the US to patrol the Pacific sea lanes. Local players are increasingly concerned with protecting the Indian Ocean and the South China Sea, though dependence on US for security in the Pacific will remain throughout the decade. What does it mean for business? There will be a transient opportunity for arms-producing nations to sell weapons to developing nations. Total arms sales from the top 1 global defense companies increased 8 percent from 28 to 29 to reach $41 billion. Seventy-eight of the top 1 companies (and 92 percent of revenues) are located in the US and Western Europe. Given its strategic importance, military production will likely be brought in-country over time, limiting the long-run opportunity to multinational defense companies. For companies that rely on supply chains passing through the Asia-Pacific region, consider the risks of political and military instability and possible alternative supplier options in the event of an emergency. Militarization following industrialization: A transient opportunity for defense contractors

20 US accounts for about 5 percent of global defense spending today Global defense spending (21) US defense spending as a percent of total GDP 1% $1T Japan $.6T Total= $1.6T 15% 8 Europe 6 All other 1 Reduction to post Cold War levels would reduce spending by $25B $3B 4 USA India Saudi Arabia 5 2 Russia China Advanced Developing Sources: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute Database, 21, in 29 dollars; Bureau of Economic Analysis, 211; Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, 211 Half of the total expected growth in global defense spending will come from Asia-Pacific Estimated increase in total defense spending by region (forecast) 2% Total= $1T 165% % 5 49% 3% 28% Asia-Pacific Mid. East Latin and America Africa North America Europe Sources: Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, 29; Lit searches; Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, 211 Page 18

21 Energy security and geography are among the drivers for potential increases in Asia-Pacific military spending China s estimated and projected net deficit of oil as a percent of total consumption Indian Ocean to South China Sea s Malacca Strait is a critical corridor providing China with access to oil 8% NDIA East China Sea Okinawa BURMA LAOS Hong Kong Hainan Dao Taiwan Philippine Sea THAILAND CAMBODIA ~14m bbl/d VIETNAM BRUNEL MALAYSIA SINGAPORE Java Sea Java Indian Ocean South China Sea Palawan INDONESIA PHILIPPINES Bali Sumba Celebes Sea Banda Sea Timor Sea Halmahera Arafura Sea North Pacific Ocean New Guinea Energy, growth and geography may combine to form the economic rationale for increasing military (especially naval) spending, first by China, and then by other nations around it. Sources: DoE EIA projections, May 21; BP 23 Energy Outlook; Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, 211 At the same time, fiscal pressures in the US may partly offset the growth from Asia-Pacific by an approximate $1 billion annual run rate Current and projected annual US Department of Defense spending $8B $7 6 $2 (low) to $7(high) $ $16 Decline of $ Current US defense spending* End of special war funding Budget growth scenarios (estimated) Net US defense spending* in 22 (forecast) Decline vs. today *Only includes Department of Defense appropriations and special appropriations Sources: Congressional Budget Office, March 211 baseline; Congressional Budget Office, Long term projections of Department of Defense spending, June 3, 211; Budgetary Control Act of 211; Bain Macro Trends Group analysis, 211 Page 19