ASD UAS WG INDUSTRY & MARKET ISSUES

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1 ASD UAS WG INDUSTRY & MARKET ISSUES Europe is entering a new age where it faces many challenges such as globalisation, a financial system in need of reform, climate change and an increasing scarcity of resources 1. UAS FOR EUROPE: A VISION Aeronautics is a crucial industry of sovereign importance for the European Union and its Member States. It is a sector in which European industry provides world leadership and helps to meet society s needs by contributing in many ways to Europe s protection, security and economic prosperity. Unmanned Aircraft Systems (UAS) represent the next step in aerospace evolution that will reduce the cost of managing European security, fuel economic growth, and spawn new commercial opportunities to exploit its disruptive technologies in other fields. Europe can take advantage of the global growth in UAS. They represent a new market, enhance quality of life and create high quality job opportunities. The EU institutions and its Member States have a crucial role to play in creating the conditions that will allow the development of a European Lead Market in the field of UAS, which is seen by European industry as a fundamental step to support EU internal and external security and economic strategies. However, to date Europe does not have a dedicated policy or focussed plan to develop that market. Globalisation has accelerated competition drastically in the last decade and the European industries have lacked sufficient support, financial resources and a harmonised regulatory framework in the field of UAS, have lost pace in front of fierce competition. A common European political and industrial strategy has become essential to remove the obstacles preventing the growth and consolidation of the technology and industrial UAS base. Such a strategy should address the ways and means to: Create a harmonised European regulatory framework which will allow rapid insertion of UAS into non-segregated airspace Implement a prioritised programme of research technology and development which will accelerate the readiness of European UAS-related capabilities to meet certification and airworthiness standards ECONOMIC IMPORTANCE The UAS market is widely considered to have great perspectives in state and civil applications, and to be a complementary solution to manned aircraft. As a promising new area of business and innovation in a technology-driven, dual sector, covering needs for civil, security and defence applications, it will contribute to the sustainment of economic growth providing high qualified jobs, whilst being an opportunity to improve security in Europe. That said, the current lack of public investment in UAS in Europe has led to a difficult competitive situation for European UAS industry; other countries in the world (e.g. US, Israel & Asia) are heavily investing in their 1 Flightpath 2050 Europe s Vision for Aviation 1

2 industries, through which military products and methods of operation have been exploited in both security and civil markets. As an example, all recent market surveys (e.g. Jane s, 2010) show that the US are currently spending nearly 5B$ a year and, despite an important worldwide growth of the market, will continue to be by far the largest end user of UAS in the period. This trend is clearly evident in the table below showing the worldwide UAS market by end-users. BENEFITS FOR EUROPE EXPECTED FROM UAS Persistent, flexible and quick to react, ability to operate in Dull, Dirty or Dangerous areas, with minimal emissions (e.g. carbon and noise) and low operating costs, providing aerial range, wideangle of vision and high versatility, UAS can make a difference in the security of people, natural resources, environment and critical infrastructures. Globalisation demands the opening of borders and the promotion of trade across international boundaries both on land and at sea. Indeed a strong economic future depends on such freedoms; therefore, it seems intuitive that the maintenance of trade routes without jeopardising national security is essential. In addition, the protection of Europe s critical infrastructure is considered key for a functioning and stable society upon which the welfare of European citizens depends 2. Similarly, the sustainment, management and protection of Europe s natural resources is high priority; in all these important functions, UAS provide a more affordable and effective capability over the traditional methods of assurance. Against these needs, the User Groups are numerous and all can exploit the potential of UAS, yet the opportunity to utilise the unique features of UAS have not been properly realised. MARKET OPPORTUNITIES The following represent a small sample of applications: Border and maritime surveillance Security and policing in crime prevention Protection of critical national infrastructure Emergency Services: search and rescue; disaster relief 2 European Council Directive 2008/114/EC, 8 th December

3 Communications relay in disaster zones Large event/crowd safety and traffic flow monitoring Earth monitoring systems Harvest optimisation or forest growth monitoring/management Weather and climate monitoring and research including cloud seeding Land use management and urban planning Mineral exploration Pipeline leak or cable damage detection Medical sample transportation Real-time road traffic information (facilitating transport integration) In addition, new ways of collaborating and fresh business models are required, as it is unlikely that civil users would own the assets outright. More likely is the implementation of leasing, hiring and service provision agreements, together with an increase in the pooling and sharing of assets across organisations. Maximisation of asset availability, operational output and reduced operating costs will be critical. Indeed the key enabler to the development of a significant civil market is clearly the establishment of an adequate regulatory framework for the UAS in the fields of airworthiness, air traffic insertion, radio-frequencies spectrum availability, security, crew licensing etc. The immaturity of full UAS capability for civil applications makes market assessment difficult. Appreciations of real market start vary but there is general agreement that the period would be the most probable opportunity. The overall analyses of Teal, Frost & Sullivan, Regeneris et al is generally supportive of the view that the trends in the civil global market for UAS are expected to grow rapidly by the end of the decade, more so than the military market. Specifically, Frost and Sullivan identified unit growth as shown in the chart below: 120 Phasing-in of a regulatory framework Units Year Figure 1: European Civil UAS Market, Therefore, once restrictions on UAS emergence are swept away, the potential scale of the commercial market is likely to be much larger than the worldwide military market (circa $6bn 4 ). Rapid year-on-year growth can be expected to continue well beyond 2017 as user applications develop and are better understood. 3 Market figures are derived from ENTR/2007/065 Study Analysing the Current Activities in the Field of UAV, Frost and Sullivan, 2007, (as updated in 2009) 4 Teal Report World Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Systems Market Profile and Forecast

4 Without doubt, European industry has the competence to be part of this growth and develop the next generation family of UAS and has extensive experience of cooperation in the aeronautic and space sectors in both military and civil applications. The Industry Supply Chain has proved to be reliable, agile and world-leading in its technological approach, particularly when R&T funding has been squeezed and lean management practices have been tested to the full. The existence of a healthy SME base is key if Europe is not to be left behind when the barriers to market access fall. In terms of sustaining and growing organic technical capability, the civil aeronautics sector currently reinvests 12% of revenues, representing 7 billion 5, back into R&D thus creating an equivalent additional value in the economy every year. This commitment to technology is demonstrative of the desire for European aviation industry to compete globally. However, the backing of Governments and the EU has been crucial; therefore, if the UAS industry is to be competitive against the more established and publically supported US and Israeli players, as well as those emerging from Brazil, India, China, new commitments are necessary to strengthen the UAS European Technology Basis. TECHNOLOGY EXPLOITATION UAS offer a truly dual-use solution for military and civilian users. A common platform has the flexibility to carry common or interchangeable payloads offering reduced costs through increased production volumes across sectors. Furthermore, the early adoption of UAS in providing realtime information to military commanders has underlined their potential to not only exploit the technology but the associated operational experiences as well. Recognising that the UAS family ranges from the very small (micro/mini) through the mid range (light) to the larger sized vehicles (MALE/HALE 6 ), the exploitation of military UAS capabilities has to date been dominated by US or, to a lesser extent, Israeli companies. Many of the technologies, and their integration into complete systems, will also benefit manned aviation and air traffic management. For example, intelligent automatic or autonomous systems will enable improved decision-making and data trend organisation. They would contribute to the ability to reduce crewing levels and effect safer management of higher traffic densities resulting from rapid growth in air transport through more informed and intelligent operating decisions on the ground. They would also overcome communications shortfalls to improve aircraft safety and support dynamic health monitoring of systems. In addition, certifiable, intelligent systems are already capable of making human-like sensible decisions, acting in a globally optimal fashion, keeping the operator in the loop, and dealing automatically with routine procedural tasks. Technologies from the UAS aerospace sector, in particular autonomy, have wide applicability in other domains that would bring social, environmental and economic benefit. Examples of these applications are: Intelligent management in road transport on-board real time management can be used to optimise journey times, anticipate future and evolving events and proactively route vehicles while optimising fuel consumption and reducing emissions and congestion. Intelligent building management control of building utility systems (e.g. heating, lighting, power) for minimum environmental impact and capable of responding to current and future environmental and consumer effects. Assisted living - development of smart apartments with monitoring systems and artificial companions to support the independence of elderly and incapacitated people. 5 Flightpath 2050 Europe s Vision for Aviation 6 Medium Altitude Long Endurance (MALE) and High Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) 4

5 Robotic surgery - system where the surgeon identifies the target area for treatment and the machine decides the best route to access the area. This has strong analogies to the planning and decision making technologies in autonomous air vehicles. With such wide economic potential it is vital for Europe to have a domestic capability, and to then be in a position to compete on a global basis. Unlike some other parts of the world, the European approach to investment has been fragmented and lacking coherence which has stifled effective growth. So, even though UAS technologies will bring wide benefits, the boundaries of which have inevitably yet to be fully defined, some means must be found to kick-start investment. European Commission funding will doubtless play a part in this market but the most urgent need lies in the development of a Regulatory Framework, flexible enough to allow the European UAS industry to develop cost-effective and market-winning technology solutions. SWOT ANALYSIS OF UAS DEVELOPMENT IN EUROPE The development of UAS capability in Europe has a number of strengths and weakness; the table summarises those features and articulates the threats and opportunities facing Europe. Strengths: European civil aeronautics is established as a world leader Aviation is prepared to reinvest returns in R&D Military UAS capability acting as early adopter The ETIB has depth and capability including a strong supply chain including SMEs Establishment of STANAG 4671 for military UAS Establishment of EASA responsibility for UAS >150 kg UAS flying has taken place but under special arrangements Opportunities: Civil market offers significant opportunities in the future. Europe can position the industrial base to set standards for the rest of the world. Early access to non-segregated airspace will enable Europe to better exploit the global market. Emerging propulsion and materials technologies for exploitation across aviation and other sectors. UAS have the potential to be more cost-effective than current manned solutions. UAS can be more effective than manned platforms at dull, dirty and dangerous tasks. Dual-use technologies have emerged and are already being exploited e.g. solar electric HALE UAV with record-breaking endurance Exploitation of military UAS operational experience Weaknesses: Lack of a coherent, well-funded, central procurement authority for government applications. US budgets lead to domination of market share. Availability of off-the-shelf products from US and Israel Commercial presence of Israeli players No common, harmonised legislation to enable UAS insertion into non-segregated airspace. UAS Standards and Certification criteria are not established at the European level. Initiatives to promote non-military applications have been ad hoc and uncoordinated. Key technologies for traffic insertion still maturing i.e. sense and avoid LOS and BLOS 7 equipment, health management and autonomy. Rules for segregated UAS operations vary between nations. Lack of agreed RF communications and sensor spectrum No European-level agreement on training and licensing of UAS crews. Threats: US investment in UAS development and political drive to regulate and enable commercial application of UAS. Israeli industries drive towards civil certification. Emergence of new entrants (BRIC countries, Asia, Middle East) US (FAA) will drive the agenda for setting of standards and shape the international regulatory framework. Fragmentation of the European market for UAS through diverse and uncoordinated national rule-sets. 7 Line of Sight (LOS) and Beyond Line of Sight (BLOS) 5

6 LONGER TERM MARKET AND SOCIETAL INTERESTS UAS are important in their own right, but the technologies and systems they embody have wideranging applications in civil aeronautics and other sectors. As noted in the Flightpath 2050 report, we can anticipate growth of UAS in a wide range of non-transport aviation missions, including and going beyond the specific near term applications described above. UAS will become part of society s information infrastructure. This could include, for example, feeding real time information into road transport management and controlling or advising traffic flows. In the vision of 2050, the report also anticipated that a proportion of air cargo would be conducted by unmanned vehicles. A less cautious view could conclude the same for passenger air transport. However, more generically, the advent of disruptive, safe and autonomous technologies radically changes the assumptions of a century of flight in which a human has been assumed to be necessarily on board. It is difficult to see how, and notwithstanding all the major advances in the SES, a rising volume of air traffic using a relatively constant number of runways can be managed without passing greater authority to the flight management and air traffic systems. Nevertheless, such advances are predicated on the development of confidence among professionals and the public in the reliability and safety of such systems. This cannot be achieved purely by modelling and simulation. There is a clear and logical path, from the creation of a regulatory environment for UAS air traffic management and the setting of airworthiness and certification standards, development of data links, to the wider incorporation of autonomous applications in air transport. By making real-world validation of the reliability and value of UAS, this will also serve to build public confidence in the safety of unmanned flight which, in turn, will allow a progressive transfer of autonomous technologies into air transport aircraft and systems, and then the design and development of future transport aircraft and systems. The aeronautic market is therefore much broader than for UAS alone. There is also a more general point to be made about exploitation of civil spin-offs from new technologies originating from defence investment, which historically, Member States have known how to manage. Today, and particularly in the context of UAS, the challenge is to achieve this in a timely manner at EU level. Certification and traffic regulation are market enablers which can only be sensibly addressed at EU level. CONCLUSION Aeronautics is an important industry for Europe, within which, UAS represent a new paradigm and significant market growth opportunities. To date military technologies have led the way; however, the civil and security markets promise higher returns. Therefore, it is important that all European stakeholders unify their efforts around developing a clear market strategy. Europe has a unique opportunity to build on an established technology base to fly UAS and to put them to use for many beneficial public service purposes. We have the potential to create a strong industrial base within this emergent strategic market; however, to succeed we must energise the set up of a robust and pragmatic UAS regulatory framework, as well as stimulate investment in infrastructures and the prioritised core technology base at all levels, including academia, SME, systems integrators and service providers. We need to act now to maintain our competitive edge; however, in essence, to open the market we need to open the airspace. 6