Photovoltaïque: la longue marche vers la parité réseau

Transcription

1 Photovoltaïque: la longue marche vers la parité réseau Didier Jousse Roscoff, 30 Mars 2010

2 A key player in the solar field CSP Electricity production from concentrated solar heat Photovoltaic Electricity production from solar rays > Components > Mirrors > Pads > Central recevers > Components > Glass > Abrasives > Plastics > Crucibles > PV panels > Solar systems > AVANCIS Complete solutions

3 Contenu Marchés: d une dynamique portée par les tarifs subventionnés vers la viabilité économique Etat du marché mondial Politiques d incitation au rachat Transition vers la parité réseau Chaîne de valeur, création d emplois Technologies Facteurs clé dictés par le marché Compétition c-si / Couches Minces Technologies alternatives

4 Market grows at ~30% annual growth rate Courtesy of European Photovoltaic Industry Association Residential Roofs 34% Off-grid 0% p 1% 19% Power Plant 23% >10,000 23% Farm Roofs Commercial Roofs 9,000 6,400

5 Fortunately, module prices are continuously decreasing with quantities 1 Module Price in 2010 ~ $2/Wp, in 2015 will be ~$1/Wp Module System Price in 2010 ~ $5/Wp, in 2015 will be ~$2.5/Wp + installation = SYSTEM

6 Market growth is completely driven by national Feed-In-Tariff schemes Exemple of Germany which represents 55% of WW market Germany has been very expert in applying decrease in tariff with decrease in module prices (- 40% in 2009)

7 Exemple of Japan who hold N 1 position for many years First subsidized programme in 1994 Continuous support during 12 years Stopped the support in 2005 decrease in number of installations in 2006 & 2007 New programme decided for 2009 market is increasing again

8 Exemple of Spain who reached N 1 position in 2008 and fell right after in 2005: Spain decides an ambitious plan for Renewables with an objective of 30% of electricity production Purchase price of 45c/kWh in 2007, the «cap» for PV was increased to 1200MW for 2009, the cap was reduced to 500MW Too generous tariff + lack of visibility leads to bubble Spanish PV industry is still struggling to recover

9 Elements for a good incentive programme Amount is adjusted to give an IRR between 6 and 10% No financial bubble Smooth increase of installed capacities Decreases with size of installation Conversion efficiency is the same Distributed energy generation and consumption Reduced cost/kwh for large plants Premium to building vs ground Less environment impact Good public acceptance Premium to self-consumption Reduce the risk of grid overload Helps promoting energy efficient construction Put PV on new houses and buildings No retroactivity of decisions 6 months between planning and connection to grid

10 French FIT scheme: from bubble (dec 2009) to smooth growth? Last change (march 2010): the 0,50 /kwh tariff is limited to 250kWp

11 Is French tariff a good incentive programme? Amount is adjusted to give an IRR between 6 and 10% No financial bubble Smooth increase of installed capacities Decreases with size of installation Conversion efficiency is the same Distributed energy generation and consumption Reduced cost/kwh for large plants Premium to building vs ground Less environment impact Good public acceptance Premium to self-consumption Reduce the risk of grid overload N.A. Helps promoting energy efficient construction Put PV on new houses and buildings No retroactivity of decisions 6 months between planning and connection

12 FIT disappear with time Initially, adoption of FIT policies or other type of support is necessary to establish PV presence in the market With time, FIT are reduced and new scheme like selfconsumption is favored to avoid grid overload by intermittent energy Incentive scheme is no longer necessary because the leveraged cost of electricity is identical to retail price from the grid. Smart grids and storage must be implemented Incentives Transition Grid parity

13 Definition of grid parity: Leveraged Cost Of Electricity = retail price En Route to Grid Parity : Sunny regions strike gold first Calculation relies on a good knowledge of the kwh produced over the life of the installation (25y) : illumination level, climate effects (T, wind), module degradation over time, inverter losses, amount of financing and interest rate. For big installation, the customer will ask for a warranty on the kwh output Source: RWE and Schott Solar Source: Deutsche Bank

14 several countries approach grid parity: Italy first, Germany in 2013, France last

15 Main risks for PV industry WW market must remain at more than 10 GW/year for a few years in order to achieve grid parity and escape from FIT and subsidies Public deficits Growing eco-skepticism Volatility of public opinion Oil price France will not reach grid parity before Change in EDF policy (multi-energy versus nuclear) Insufficient link with the (new) construction sector Instability of political positionning A french PV company should rather be active also in Germany or Italy (or USA) to minimize risk

16 Main production areas : Japan Germany China (Taiwan) Till 2006: Japanese and German companies acquire leadership thanks to their internal markets Since 2006: China and Taiwan invest massively in c-si sector for export Price gap between German and Chinese module (1.7 vs 1.3 /Wp) c-si Cells, Modules are commodities Large integrated manufacturers Thin Film likely to secure more value in Europe

17 Value analysis and job creation Res. France Value decomposition ( /Wp) 2010 Res. France 2010 Res. Germany PV System, installed 2010 Ground Vente/Install Adm/Connex BOS Moduling Cell Tax credit and high tariff in France maintains high system price for residential systems Installation costs are higher than in Germany due to building integration (in part) Module cost goes down faster than installation cost More jobs are expected in installation and maintenance than in cell/module manufacturing Competition between asian actors will maintain overcapacities and low margins in c-si cell/module Rapport Poignant Assemblée Nationale Juillet 2009

18 Contenu Marchés: d une dynamique portée par les tarifs subventionnés vers la viabilité économique Etat du marché mondial Politiques d incitation au rachat Transition vers la parité réseau Chaîne de valeur, création d emplois Technologies Facteurs clé dictés par le marché Compétition c-si / Couches Minces Technologies alternatives

19 Key drivers for the technology Small Residential Large Commercial Ground Plant /Wp* /kwh Wp/m2 Aesthetic (in part) /Wp* /kwh Warranty on kwh Building compatible /Wp* /kwh Warranty on kwh Environment compatible * installed The market is largely technologyagnostic Who cares today if its TV is Plasma or LCD? Regulations have an impact on technological choices MW connected PV installed market in MW in off grid façades residential roof farm roof commercial roof power plant Germany Spain USA Japan Italy France Ro Asia RoW % 0% 1% 23% 19% 23%

20 Exemple: la gamme de toits Saint-Gobain Solar

21 Thin Film has fewer process steps all in one place, more efficient cost down with quantities but proven Cryst-Silicon technology has a better image of durability + - a Veeco Scribe 1 Scribe 2 Scribe 3 On-glass monolithic Integration

22 All the physics of PV in one page! Absorption coefficient determines cell thickness c-si = 80µm ThinFilm=1µm No (efficient) transparent PV!!!

23 Main Thin Film technologies in one page!! CdTe Glass Substrate TCO Couche tampon n PLX or Diamant Solar + TCO SnO 2 : F CdS PE-CVD Chemical bath deposition CIGS Glass Intercalaire Float Diamant Solar Absorber p CdTe Closed Spaced Sublimation SCS TCO Couche tampon Absorber ZnO CdS CuInSe CVD, sputtering Chemical bath deposition Souttering/ sélénisation OU Co-evaporation Couche adhésion Metallic reflecting layer Intercalaire Glass ZnTe:Cu Al, Ti sputtering evaporation PLX Metallic reflecting layer 2 µm Glass Substrate Mo sputtering PLX + Mo TCO = Transparent Conducting Oxide = SnO2:F or ZnO:Al a-si:h, µc-si:h Glass Substrate Transparent layer TCO Absorber p i n Metallic reflecting layer 1 µm 1 µm PLX or Diamant Solar + TCO TCO SnO2:F a-si:h / Silicium µc-si:h Intercalaire Glass SiOSn Ag Ag PE-CVD PE-CVD, HW-CVD Sputtering, evaporation PLX Some materials can be coated on flexible substrates with Roll-to-Roll manufacturing : Foil a-si CIGS Metal Unisolar, Fuji, Xunlight Global Solar, Miasolé, Nanosolar, Odersun, Solopower, Nexcis Polymer Flexcell Ascent Solar, Solarion

24 The graph that keeps all of us alive NB : best cell lab module -2%, lab module industrial -2%

25 The permanent competition on /Wp manufacturing cost Higher efficiency modules have a higher chance to win - lower manufacturing cost: /Wp = /Module x Module/Wp - can be sold at a price premium, due to lower Bill of System (land, installation hardware) - CIGS has the best margin for progress among thin film technologies Efficiency (%) Status 2010 Module Price ( /Wp) Crystalline silicon 2 Sunpower Sanyo CIGS CdTe a-si µmorph Thin Films 1.5 Thin Films p-si c-si Cumulated MW % 15% 20% Efficiency

26 Importance of good timing: the success story of First Solar Shortage of c-si in the period maintains high module price First Solar was able to sell its first modules above $2/Wp operating margin of 40% in spite of huge ramp-up costs Installed capacity in 2010= 1200 MW

27 AVANCIS - a large-scale technological and industrial challenge > AVANCIS : 29 years in photovoltaic 1981 ARCO Solar starts initial R&D on CIGS 1990 Siemens Solar acquires ARCO Solar 1998 Start of commercial CIGS production in Camarillo, CA 2002 Shell Solar acquires Siemens Solar 2004 Development of RTP process in Munich 2006 Shell and Saint-Gobain form AVANCIS 2009 AVANCIS becomes 100% Saint-Gobain > An R&D centre in Munich An experimental production line for 60 Wp modules 15.1% module efficiency demonstrated A test site for modules > An ambitious program of production lines Since October 2008 the first 20 MW plant in Torgau (Germany) on a Saint-Gobain Glass site Program of fast industrial development on modular units of 100 to 300 MW Solar wall of the OpTIC centre in North Wales R&D centre in Munich Plant in Torgau

28 Arguments in favor of Thin Films : kwh/kwp efficiency Better response at small illumination levels (few %) STC measured at 1000 W/m2, real life at ~300 This is valid for all thin film technologies Better behavior at elevated temperatures (few %) Temperature coefficient is semiconductor related Valid for CdTe and a-si only A-Si gives higher kwh/kwp than others (+ few %) due to above factors + module makers rating their nominal power as «stabilized efficiency»

29 Arguments in favor of Thin Films : Energy Pay-Back Time & CO2 content V. Fthenakis et al., PV-SEC Hamburg, 2009 Thin Film case study: First Solar c-si case study REC Recycling policies in place : PV Cycle, First Solar Chemical availability of some elements will become a concern (after 10GW) Issues for Te, In new phases like new alloy of Cu-Sn-Zn-S or-se by IBM (2010)

30 Alternative technologies : yes if low /Wp or new feature (low weight) Established technologies will not give up without fighting Hybrids or multiple gaps using existing technological base seem les risky Flexible allow reduced manufacturing capex thank to Roll-to-Roll equipment High efficiency triple junction (III-V) with concentration if cost can be reduced Organic if durability is improved

31 Thank you SG Solar Sunstyle : 9MW being installed in Perpignan Contact: didier.jousse@saint-gobain.com Sources: H2G (Jacques Schmitt), EPIA, DB, Rapport Poignant Saint-Gobain Recherche Saint-Gobain Solar Saint-Gobain Solar Systems AVANCIS