FICOTM. Consumer Credit Risk North America Trends and Expectations FOURTH QUARTER 2013

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1 Consumer Credit Risk North America Trends and Expectations FOURTH QUARTER 2013 A Survey by the Professional Risk Managers International Association January 2014 w w w. P R M I A. o r g PRMIA thanks our survey sponsor FICOTM

2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The Professional Risk Managers International Association (PRMIA) is a higher standard for risk professionals, with over 65 chapters around the world and nearly 90,000 members. A non-profit, member-led association, PRMIA is dedicated to defining and implementing the best practices of risk management through education including the Professional Risk Manager (PRM ) designation and Associate PRM certificate; webinar, online, classroom and in-house training; events; networking; and online resources. More information can be found at FICO (NYSE:FICO) delivers superior predictive analytics that drive smarter decisions. The company s groundbreaking FICOTM use of mathematics to predict consumer behavior has transformed entire industries and revolutionized the way risk is managed and products are marketed. FICO s innovative solutions include the FICO Score the standard measure of consumer credit risk in the United States along with industry-leading solutions for managing credit accounts, identifying and minimizing the impact of fraud, and customizing consumer offers with pinpoint accuracy. Most of the world s top banks, as well as leading insurers, retailers, pharma businesses and government agencies rely on FICO solutions to accelerate growth, control risk, boost profits, and meet regulatory and competitive demands. FICO also helps millions of individuals manage their personal credit health through FICO: Make every decision count. PRMIA would like to extend special appreciation to The Center for Decision Sciences at Columbia Business School for their assistance in analyzing the survey responses. The Center for Decision Sciences brings together scholars from a range of fields who share an interest in human decision making. The center facilitates research and understanding on consumer behavior, the implications of decision making on public policy, and the neurological underpinnings of judgment and decision making. The center is housed within Columbia Business School, widely acknowledged as being among the world s top business schools. To learn more, visit 2 T H E P R O F E S S I O N A L R I S K M A N A G E R S I N T E R N A T I O N A L A S S O C I A T I O N

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Since the first quarter of 2010, FICO and PRMIA have polled bank risk professionals each quarter regarding their predictions for the next six months and the impact of current events on their field. This quarter shows consistency with predictions made in Q1 and Q2 2013; suggesting uncertainty that had affected the Q3 survey findings may have been alleviated. The prevailing view is now one of maintenance of the status quo over the next six months, indicating current issues in risk management are not seen as particularly troubling or as having a large impact on lending in general. Additionally, adequate supply of credit is predicted. Key Findings and predictions about the next six months: In all categories of delinquency, a near majority believes that levels of delinquency will stay the same; however, 46% feel that levels of student loan delinquencies will increase. Over a quarter (27%) look for the levels of home equity line delinquencies to decrease. A majority (57.6%) look for the average balance on credit cards to increase. Similarly, 61.8% look for the aggregate amount of credit requested by consumers to increase. Nearly half (48.1%) look for the approval rate of credit/loan applications to stay the same. 60.5% expect the number of existing customers who request a credit-line increase to rise. A majority (51.3%) feel the total number of delinquencies will remain the same. A large majority (66.7%) feel that the aggregate amount of credit requested by small businesses will increase. Nearly two thirds (64.8%) place moderate or high priority on the growing risk posed by the Home Equity Lines of Credit (HELOC) end-of-draw issue (i.e. recasting). Increasing lending is not seen as a priority in 2014 rather, growing profitability of existing customers and growing current accounts is on the minds of risk management professionals. A H I G H E R S T A N D A R D F O R R I S K P R O F E S S I O N A L S 3

4 SURVEY DETAILS KEY FINDINGS AND ANALYSIS Optimism in Delinquency Forecast Looking at the industry as a whole, over the next six months, do you expect: (check all that apply) The level of residential mortgage delinquencies (of 90 days or more) to The level of home equity line delinquencies to The level of credit card delinquencies to The level of auto loan delinquencies to Increase significantly Increase somewhat Stay about the same Decrease somewhat Decrease significantly The level of small business loan delinquencies to (As a general guideline, the SBA Office of Advocacy defines a small business as an independent business having fewer than 500 employees.) The level of student loan delinquencies to In Q4 the FICO/PRMIA survey found a pattern of results that suggests a more optimistic outlook for the next 6 months. This includes student loan delinquencies, which have had fewer and fewer respondents expecting increases in each quarter since Q This quarter, 46.1% of respondents look for student loan delinquencies to increase, 3% less than Q3 and over 1 less than in Q2. Turning to residential mortgages, many (46.5%) now believe that the level of residential mortgage delinquencies will stay the same, compared to 52.7% in Q3. Similarly, a plurality (47.3) also believe that the level of home equity line delinquencies will remain the same, compared to 53.2% in Q3. Additionally, in both categories, more respondents continue to predict a decrease in delinquency levels rather than an increase, suggesting a view of stability and optimism. Looking at credit card and auto loan delinquencies, the majority of respondents feel that the level of delinquencies would either stay the same or decrease (76.6%, up from 69% Q3; 77.2%, up from 71.8% Q3, respectively). Finally, many respondents (47.3%, roughly equivalent to Q2 predictions) believe that the level of small business loan delinquencies will stay the same, with slightly more looking for an increase (26.9%) than a decrease (25.5%). Overall, the delinquency picture is optimistic, as it tends to be in Q4 surveys; however, this year the trends are not markedly different from previous forecasts from the Q1-Q3 surveys, a reassuring finding. 4 T H E P R O F E S S I O N A L R I S K M A N A G E R S I N T E R N A T I O N A L A S S O C I A T I O N

5 SURVEY DETAILS Consumer Credit Outlook Returns to Norms Observed in Q2 & Q1 Looking at the industry as a whole, over the next six months, do you expect: (check all that apply) Interest rates for consumer credit to The approval criteria for common credit and loan products to The average balance on credit card accounts to The volume of credit/ loan applications to The aggregate amount of credit requested by consumers to The approval rate of credit/ loan applications to Increase significantly Increase somewhat Stay about the same Decrease somewhat Decrease significantly The amount of consumer credit extended by lenders to In regards to underwriting, respondents seem to have changed their minds very little from the previous quarters. While a large majority in Q3 (72.2%) believed that interest rates for consumer credit would increase, Q4 saw this number drop to 52.4%, returning to levels seen in previous surveys. Many (48.3%, similar to 45.3% in Q3) expect the approval criteria for credit and loan products to stay the same, and a majority (57.6%, up from 52.8% in Q2) look for consumers to be comfortable carrying a higher average balance on their credit cards. This may not be all that surprising, as Q4 consumers will need to pay off holiday debt over the next 6 months. Additionally, 53.2% see the volume of credit/loan applications rising, while a majority (61.8%) also see the aggregate amount of credit requested to increase. These numbers are closer to their Q2 values than Q3, suggesting a return to predictions of previous surveys other than Q3. Many (48.1%) feel that the approval rate for consumer credit and loans will remain the same, echoing previous quarters, while respondents appear split on the question of the amount of consumer credit that will be extended by lenders: 45% believe this amount will increase, while 40.1% believe it will stay the same. In sum, the predictions of the next six months echo strongly the predictions of Q1 and Q2 2013, suggesting healthy consumer use of credit. A H I G H E R S T A N D A R D F O R R I S K P R O F E S S I O N A L S 5

6 SURVEY DETAILS Consumers will ask for more credit, but delinquencies will likely not rise. Looking at the industry as a whole, over the next six months, do you expect: The number of existing customers who request credit-line increases to The total number of delinquencies (of 90 days or more) on consumer lending products to Increase significantly Increase somewhat Remain the same Decrease somewhat Decrease significantly The number of new delinquencies (of 30 days or more) on consumer lending products to Previously, the FICO/PRMIA survey had found that most respondents believed that they would see more credit-line increase requests over the next six months than they currently did (51.7% in Q2 2013, 57.5% in Q1 2013), with only around a third looking for the amount of credit-line increase requests to stay the same. In Q3, those numbers began to even out, with 46.3% predicting an increase and 46.2% predicting the level to stay the same. However in Q4, the present survey, the sentiment of the first two quarters appears again 60.5% of participants expect the number of existing customers who request credit-line increases to rise, with only 35.3% looking for them to remain the same. At the same time, a small majority (51.3%) predict the total number of delinquencies will stay the same smaller than the 62.3% in Q3. Finally, a plurality (43.2%) believe that the number of new delinquencies will remain the same, down from 53.8% in Q3. The numbers appear to shift disproportionately, with sentiment now favoring a slight increase in the number of new delinquencies, versus a slight decrease by a margin of about 6%. This isn t as worrying as it may seem, given that risk management professionals expect the number of customers requesting a credit-line increase to go up individuals who had previously never had the ability to utilize a large amount of debt may be unfamiliar with it, thus spiking new delinquencies slightly. Overall, the numbers suggest consumers are asking for more credit, with the total number of delinquencies staying the same, with a minority keeping a critical eye on new delinquency levels. 6 T H E P R O F E S S I O N A L R I S K M A N A G E R S I N T E R N A T I O N A L A S S O C I A T I O N

7 SURVEY DETAILS Small Business Outlook Suggests Growth Looking at the industry as a whole, over the next six months, do you expect: The aggregate amount of credit requested by small businesses to The approval rate of credit/loan applications from small businesses to The amount of credit extended to small business by lenders to Increase significantly Increase somewhat Remain the same Decrease somewhat Decrease significantly Previous FICO/PRMIA surveys have shown increased optimism regarding small businesses use of credit, and the present survey clearly continues this trend. A large majority (66.7%, up from 59.6% in Q3) predict that the amount of credit requested by small businesses will increase. Approval rates, throughout last year predicted to remain stable, are expected by many (48.8%) to stay the same, slightly down from Q3. Finally, many (45.7% compared to 41.8% in Q3) believe that the amount of credit extended to small businesses will increase over the next six months, beginning to rebound toward the year high in Q2. As discussed last quarter, the small business outlook continues to stay the course, painting an optimistic picture in which the majority believe that small businesses will increase the amount of credit they request, while a plurality believe that the approval rate and amount extended will stay the same or increase as well. A H I G H E R S T A N D A R D F O R R I S K P R O F E S S I O N A L S 7

8 SURVEY DETAILS Current Topics: Credit Supply, HELOC Recasting Risk, and Organizational Priorities Over the next six months, do you expect The supply of credit for residential mortgages to The supply of credit for mortgage refinancing to The supply of credit for credit cards to The supply of credit for auto loans to The supply of credit for small business loans to The supply of credit for student loans to Fall significantly short of demand Fall slightly short of demand Meet demand Slightly exceed demand Significantly exceed demand The FICO/PRMIA survey devotes a number of questions each quarter toward current topics. Beginning in Q3 2012, credit supply became a major focus, broken out by multiple categories. In all six of the categories polled, a plurality of respondents felt that supply would meet demand, a finding seen in the Q poll as well. Respondents show the most optimism in the areas of credit card, auto loan, and, somewhat surprisingly, student loan supply in all three categories a majority expect supply to meet demand. Given the concerns the survey respondents have had with student loan delinquencies, it is interesting that it does not seem to impact their judgment of supply meeting demand, although those who do not believe supply will meet demand fall disproportionately into the belief that supply will fall short of demand (29.8%) versus the view that demand will fall short of supply (14.9%). Although this trend is fairly common in only 2 categories do respondents not seeing equal supply and demand predict more so that supply will exceed demand: credit cards and auto loans. 8 T H E P R O F E S S I O N A L R I S K M A N A G E R S I N T E R N A T I O N A L A S S O C I A T I O N

9 SURVEY DETAILS The OCC and other agencies have noted growing risk as it relates to the HELOC end-of-draw issue (i.e., recasting). Where does this risk fall in terms of level of priority at your organization? 48.9% 12.9% 3% Increase lending to consumers Increase lending to small businesses Increase mortgage lending Improving the customer experience Reducing fraud losses Improving risk management processing and systems Growing profitability of our existing customers Growing our current/ deposit account base Increasing capital to comply with new regulations Updating systems to comply with new regulations 18.9% 16.3% High priority Priority Not a priority Very low priority Low priority Moderate High priority Very high priority What do you see as priorities for your organization in 2014? 5 In what year does your organization foresee the largest risk dues to HELOC recasting? 26.3% 11.9% 7.6% 3.4% 50.8% The FICO/PRMIA survey this quarter asked two questions regarding HELOCs. In the first, respondents were asked their opinion regarding recent statements made by the Office of the Comptroller of Currency (OCC) about growing risk related to the HELOC end-of-draw issue (i.e., recasting). Slightly more than a third, 35.2%, assign this risk a low or very low priority at their organization. However, 64.8% place a moderate priority on this risk, with 15.9% placing high or very high priority on it. This seems to indicate that most are aware of the potential issues and are taking the OCC and other agencies statements into consideration. When specifically asked what year their organization foresees the largest risks due to HELOC recasting, opinion was somewhat split, with 2015 (26.3%) and 2016 (11.9%) being the most popular responses. Lastly, the FICO/PRMIA survey asked respondents to rate the level of priority various tasks would receive in their organization in Many respondents did not see increasing lending to consumers, increasing lending to small business, or increasing mortgage lending, as priorities in their organization. However, high priority was placed on improving customer experiences, improving risk management processes and systems, growing profitability of current customers, and growing the current/deposit account base. Fraud prevention and reducing loss, and increasing capital/updating systems to comply with new regulations were also mentioned frequently. NA A H I G H E R S T A N D A R D F O R R I S K P R O F E S S I O N A L S 9

10 Historical Analysis Over 15 quarters, a variety of trends have been noted by the PRMIA survey. These include: There appears to be only one historic high or low prediction this quarter. That is, in itself, notable in terms of the status quo feeling shown in many of the responses given. In Q4, respondents were not overly polarized in general, many preferring to predict staying the course. Only 7.1% expect a decrease in the volume of credit / loan applications, the second lowest number on record. What makes this especially interesting is that it is down from the highest number on on record. What makes this especially interesting is that it is down from the highest number on record in Q3 25%. Only 5.2% expect a decrease in the amount of credit requested the lowest amount on record. At its peak, in Q3 2010, 24% expected a decrease. Mortgage Delinquencies 48% 46.9% 46% 44% 42% 4 38% 38.5% 36% 34% 32% 31.2% 30.4% % 28% 26% 26% 28.1% 28.8% 24% 22% % 18.3% 18% 15.1% 14.8% 16% 13.4% 14% 12% % 1 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Mortgage delinquencies percent of respondents expecting a decline 16.5% expect a decrease in the approval rate of credit applications, the second lowest number on record. In Q2, when results mirrored the current survey in many ways, the all time low of 15.3% was observed. 4.1% expect a decrease in the requests for credit line increases, another second lowest prediction in survey history. The lowest was, again, observed in Q2, with 3.5% expecting a decrease. Home Equity Delinquencies 42% 40.6% 4 38% 36% 36% 34% 32% 3 28% 29.7% 29.4% 27% 27% 26% 24% 23.1% 22% 20.9% 22.2% 23.9% 2 18% 17.5% 18% 16% 14% 12% 16.4% 16.2% 1 1 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Home equity deliquencies percent of respondents expecting a decline 1 0 T H E P R O F E S S I O N A L R I S K M A N A G E R S I N T E R N A T I O N A L A S S O C I A T I O N

11 Credit Card Delinquencies 4 35% % 31.4% 26.9% 27.7% 29.7% 28.3% 25% 2 15% 23.4% 20.7% 22.8% 21.3% 27.1% 22.8% 25.3% 23.3% 1 5% 9.1% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Credit card delinquencies percent of respondents expecting a decline Student Loan Delinquencies 18% 16% 14% 12% 1 8% 6% 4% 2% 15.4% 14.5% 13.3% 12.7% 12.8% 12.4% 12.3% 12% 11.3% 9.2% 7.6% 9.1% 8.5% 8.3% 6.9% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Student loan delinquencies percent of respondents expecting a decline Total Loan Delinquencies 35% 3 25% 2 15% 1 5% 29.3% 17.5% 20.8% 25.2% 23.7% 24.1% 20.1% 18.1% 18% 17.7% 20.9% 18.8% 16.3% 11.3% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Total number of delinquencies percent of respondents expecting a decline A H I G H E R S T A N D A R D F O R R I S K P R O F E S S I O N A L S 1 1

12 Auto Loan Delinquencies 4 35% 3 25% 2 24% 37.2% 22.4% 32.1% 21.1% 34.4% 32.2% 30.4% 28% 25.3% 25% 21.9% 25.4% 22.9% 15% % 5% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Auto loan delinquencies percent of respondents expecting a decline Small Business Loan Delinquencies 4 35% 3 25% % 18.5% 20.6% 28.1% % 26.5% 26.3% 20.5% 23.7% 27.4% 25% 25.8% 15% % 16.6% 5% Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Small business loan delinquencies percent of respondents expecting a decline 1 2 T H E P R O F E S S I O N A L R I S K M A N A G E R S I N T E R N A T I O N A L A S S O C I A T I O N

13 RESPONDENT PROFILE Your job (select most appropriate) 33.9% 39.3% Chief Risk Officer Functional leader Portfolio/product management Business/risk analyst Other 9.1% 9.9% 7.9% Many respondents (33.9%) identified as business or risk analysts. Smaller percentages of respondents identified as functional leaders (9.9%), portfolio or product managers (9.1%) or Chief Risk Officers (7.9%). A plurality of respondents, 39.3%, indicated that their most appropriate job was not listed, suggesting that many roles beside traditional risk managers have become familiar with risk management responsibilities as part of their duties. What is your area of responsibility (check all that apply)? % 6 25% 35.3% 51.5% Card portfolio Mortgage portfolio Auto loan portfolio Direct deposit accounts Lines of credit Student loans % 1 Respondents were allowed to indicate all areas of risk that they participate in or are responsible for. Similar to previous surveys, most respondents (59.6%) were involved in managing a mortgage portfolio, with fewer numbers responsible for lines of credit (51.5%), card portfolios (36.8%), auto loan portfolios (25%), and direct deposit accounts (35.3%). As respondents were allowed to select as many areas as they felt they had responsibility over, it is interesting to find that most respondents selected multiple areas, suggesting that they are tasked with keeping an eye on a variety of information across multiple domains of risk. A H I G H E R S T A N D A R D F O R R I S K P R O F E S S I O N A L S 1 3

14 What is the size of your institution (by total assets)? What is the business orientation of your institution (select the most appropriate)? 11.1% 4.7% 32.9% 4.7% 6.1% 3.8% 1.4% 9% 42.7% 42.3% 41.3% Up to $5 billion $5 $10 billion $10 $20 billion $20 $40 billion $40 + billion Wealth management, investments, retirement services Full service bank Discount and/or self-serve financial services Credit union Mortgage Lender Credit card monoline Very similar to previous surveys, over a third of respondents (41.3%) worked in a full service bank, with slightly more (42.7%) working in a firm specializing in wealth management, investments, or retirement services. Slightly smaller institutions were represented (42.3%; those having up to $5 billion in assets) compared to institutions having between $5 $40 billion (24.8%) or institutions having more than $40 billion in assets (32.9%). What is the geographic reach of your institution? Most respondents were based in the United States (62.3%) and 37.7% were based in Canada, and many worked at a firm with global (42.1%) or national (25.) reach. Also represented in smaller numbers were those at regional (22.8% of respondents) or local (8.8% of respondents) levels. 25% 22.8% 8.8% 1.3% 42.1% Global National Regional Local Internet-based 1 4 T H E P R O F E S S I O N A L R I S K M A N A G E R S I N T E R N A T I O N A L A S S O C I A T I O N

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