1 The Promise and Perils of Innovation Competitive Challenges to the Traditional Higher Education Model University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee Milwaukee, Wisconsin December 4, 2012 Matthew R. Pellish Director, Member Education Academic Affairs Forum 2012 The Advisory Board Company Washington, DC
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3 5 Road Map for Discussion 1 A Battle on Two Fronts 2 New Business Models: Disruptive Competition and Incumbent Innovation 3 Appendix: Risk Analysis 6 Notes:
4 7 Disruption Fatigue Who Knew that Innovation Could Sound So Familiar? Required Reading at Board Meetings and Planning Retreats The Conventional Litany of the Broken University Business Model Uncontrolled cost increases Graduates lack critical skills Resistance to pedagogical innovation Irrelevant scholarship Tenure protects faculty from accountability Undergraduate tuition subsidizing faculty research Traditional universities captive to the prestige arms race real change will come from radical, low cost models Premium Position Captivity The Incumbent s Dilemma Certain Downside, Speculative Upside for Exiting Prestige Arms Race 8 Clayton Christensen in a Nutshell: Be More Like BYU Idaho End tenure Dismantle departments Refocus research on pedagogy Switch to fully online degrees Enroll the marginally qualified Reduce number of programs Scale back merit based aid Cut back big time sports I m Certainly Not Going First I understand that as an organization we could be a lot more efficient. But if I tried to make some of the changes that are being recommended, the accreditors would be all over me, I d have a faculty revolt, and pretty quickly, I d be out of a job. Provost Public Research University Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.
5 Premium Position Captivity Featured Models of Efficiency Impossible to Emulate Nascent Small Scale Publics Built from Scratch 9 New STEM Focused Institution Fills Unmet Need at Low Cost Mayo Clinic Partner Becomes Learner Focused System Branch Opened in 2005 Single 16 story building No sports, gym, or dorms No tenure; 12 month contracts No departments From the beginning we decided we didn t want this to be a traditional institution, because we in business who had been involved with other higher education institutions felt that everything took too long. Chair of Planning Committee Opened in 2008 to serve nearby Mayo Clinic First class of 57 undergrads in 2011 No departments Differentiated faculty model separates curricular design, teaching, and targeted projects The bad news at the beginning was that we had no faculty; the good news was that we had no faculty. Chancellor Stephen Lehmkuhle Source: Reinventing Higher Education: The Promise of Innovation, Ed. Kevin Carey, Andrew P. Kelly, and Ben Wildavsky, Harvard Education Press, Not In Our League Startups Hardly Look Like a Threat to Established Universities Peer to peer learning Unaccredited Non profit, tuition free 1,300 students Pay by the course Gen Ed Unaccredited For profit $99/month plus $39/course 38 entry level college courses Free video micro lectures Unaccredited Non profit, tuition free 3,000+ lectures available
6 A Genuinely Disruptive Moment Opening the Floodgates Sebastian Thrun s Massive Open Online Course (MOOC) Goes Viral 11 Two Fashionable Brands One Hot Global Topic Truly Amazing Uptake Celebrity Faculty 160,000 Dr. Sebastian Thrun Stanford Professor Topics Covered Knowledge Representation Inference From Announcement to Launch: 2 months Cutting Edge Corporation Machine Learning Planning and Game Playing Information Retrieval 195 Computer Vision Robotics Enrolled Students Countries Source: Steven Leckart, The Stanford Education Experiment, Wired Magazine, April Infrastructure for a Massive Open Online Course A Seminar at Scale New Teaching Technologies and Social Models Essential to Course Design 12 Relatively Common Still Rare Instructional Videos Automated Assessment Peer to Peer Academic Support Student Designed Tools Instructors Thrun and Norvig record traditional lectures and post online Students homework, quizzes, and exams graded by computer Students post and answer thousands of questions on various message boards Students create software tools to support the course, including an AI playground for testing code Source: Tamar Lewin, Instruction for Masses Knocks Down Campus Walls, The New York Times, March 4, 2012.
7 13 Parting Ways Over Assessment Thrun and Stanford Differ Over Credentialing Open to All, But Winnowing the Elite Connecting to Industry Certificates of Completion Casual Learners Enrolled Completed 28, ,000 Students completing class can add certificate to CV World Class Talent Resumes Requested Perfect Scores 248 1,000 (None from Stanford students) Employer Introductions Top student resumes passed along to employers Source: Steven Leckart, The Stanford Education Experiment, Wired Magazine, April A Venture Capital Backed Startup Your Revenue Model Is Thrun s Loss Leader Courses are free An Inverted Revenue Model Assessment and certificates are free Revenue may come from value added services to students and employers: Authenticated Credentials Lead Generation No Going Back for Thrun Having done this, I can t teach at Stanford again. It s impossible. There s a red pill and a blue pill and you can take the blue pill and go back to your classroom and lecture your 20 students. But I ve taken the red pill and seen Wonderland. Sebastian Thrun The Four Elements of Udacity 14 Free STEM Courses (Mostly Technical) An Active Online Community Optional Proctored Exams Career Placement Service Source: Steven Leckart, The Stanford Education Experiment, Wired Magazine, April 2012.
8 15 A Tipping Point From Inspiration to Fruition in Only a Year July 2011 Thrun and Norvig announce that their Stanford AI course will be open to anyone January 2012 Two Stanford professors found Coursera; Venture capital firms invest $16 M July 2012 UC Berkeley joins EdX Coursera reaches 17 members October 2012 University of Texas joins EdX December 2011 MIT announces MITx Thrun gets venture capital to create Udacity May 2012 MIT and Harvard announce EdX free online courses and certificates September 2012 Coursera expands to 33 institutions and 200+ courses Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis. 16 The Incumbent Response New Ventures Offer Elite Universities a New Platform A Venue for Star Faculty Private company founded by Stanford computer scientists Andrew Ng and Daphne Koller Partners with elite universities to showcase the world s best courses No money exchanged in partnerships; Coursera serves primarily as central web portal Building an Open Platform Not for profit organization coordinating partner MOOCs (HarvardX, MITx, BerkeleyX) Led by Anant Agarwal, MIT computer scientist and MITx s first instructor Delivery platform will be open and sharable; cited as key differentiator by Berkeley Sustainable Business Model or Marginal Revenue? Secure Assessment Tuition Sharing Lead Generation Ads Tutoring Screening Tests Certificates Enterprise Platform Nominal Revenue Potentially Lucrative Source: Coursera contract with the University of Michigan; Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.
9 17 Envisioning the Current MOOC Market Key Differences Emerge in Aim and Structure Initial Funding $22 Min Venture Capital $30 M from Harvard $30 M from MIT $5 M from U Texas $20 M in Venture Capital Course Structure Fixed terms Automated assessment Lectures + quizzes Fixed terms Automated assessment Pearson testing centers Self paced Automated assessment Pearson testing centers Student Engagement MeetUp gatherings Considering peer assessment Class discussion boards Wikis Active peer support forums Q&A Sessions Scale 33 University partners 1.3 M Registrants UC Berkeley first additional partner; seeking more 122 K students in pilot course Focus on STEM and industry 160 K students in pilot course Employer Partnerships None None Career Placement Program 400+ interested firms 20 official partners 18 Reading Between the Lines What s Motivating the Rush to Online Offerings? Brand Enhancement "They will in no way diminish the value of a UVA degree, but rather enhance our brand and allow others to experience the learning environment of [Thomas] Jefferson's Academical Village." Teresa Sullivan President, University of Virginia Public Service The missions of Harvard and MIT are to provide access to learning and education and improve the general quality of life of humankind. What we re doing is simply a continuation of that mission. Anant Agarwal President, EdX Improving Pedagogy Through this partnership, we will not only make knowledge more available, but we will learn more about learning. We will refine proven teaching methods and develop new approaches that take full advantage of established and emerging technology Drew Faust President, Harvard University Fear of Missing Out You re known by your partners, and this is the College of Cardinals. It s some of the best universities in the country We re doing this in the hope and expectation that we ll be able to build a financial model, but I don t know what it is. But we can t be too far behind in an area that s growing and changing as fast as this one. E. Gordon Gee President, Ohio State University
10 19 Overhyped or Truly Disruptive? Forecasting the Potential Impact of MOOCs on Higher Education Black Swan Industry Shaping Potential Impact Offering Full Undergraduate Degrees Residential experience will remain central for traditional students Elite institutions unwilling to dilute core brand Replacing Traditional Baccalaureate Courses Credit for MOOC completion beginning to emerge, beginning in high schools Early articulation plans are far from disruptive require full tuition Popularizing and Legitimizing Online Instruction Interest among top schools generates positive buzz around online learning Could rapidly accelerate innovation in distance education Disrupting the Continuing and Professional Education Market Serious threat to non elite online programs focused on competencies But so far, little interest by Coursera, edx in revenue generating credentials Overhyped Likelihood Marginal Changes Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis. 20 Notes:
11 A Battle on Two Fronts Disruption from Above, Then Below New Models Will Threaten Incumbents from Both Ends of the Spectrum 21 Selective Institutions Access Focused Institutions Growth of High Quality Online Only Curriculum Squeezed in the Middle Pressure on Graduate & Professional Revenue Eroding Margins on Lower Division Expensive and Undifferentiated Unbundling of General Education Uncoupling Quality from Price and Exclusivity Celebrity Faculty Open Courses Hot Employer Partnerships Top Global Brands Crowd Out Mid Tier Institutions Gathering Legitimacy of Low Cost Models Legislator and Parental Support for No Frills Programs Flipped Classrooms and Technology Assisted Instruction Employer Acceptance of Non Traditional Educators and Credentials 22 The Burning Platform Economic Conditions Accelerating the Rise of Alternatives The Unpleasant Economic Realities State budget cuts Federal budget pressure Soaring student debt Bankruptcy rates rising Falling home equity High graduate unemployment The Threat You ve Feared: Regulation Caps on Tuition and Fees Limits on Collective Bargaining Faculty Productivity Mandates Performance Based Funding Academic Program Elimination Forced Articulation The Real Threat: Irrelevance Governors launching charter universities and other alternatives Venture philanthropists funding alternative projects Non traditional students flocking to for profit universities Traditional undergraduates opting for community colleges Faculty launching educational technology startups
12 23 Disruptive Competition and Incumbent Innovation Pressures on the Traditional Higher Education Business Model Traditionalists Believe But Innovators Show 1 Quality at Scale Quality means small courses with tenured faculty Academic rigor is possible in large scale settings 2 Competing on Convenience We should not treat students like customers Students increasingly demand flexibility and affordability 3 Integrating Academic and Career Preparation Degrees represent mastery of a discipline Degrees can represent employerrelevant competencies 4 Problem Focused Research Curiosity driven disciplinary research is most fruitful Grand challenges can only be solved by multidisciplinary collaboration 24 Notes:
13 25 How Will Disruption Manifest? Pressures on the Traditional Higher Education Business Model 1 Quality at Scale Elite institutions and faculty rapidly legitimize technology intensive, globally scalable instructional models Disruptive Competitors: Elite Open Course Credentials Signature Online Master s Programs Prestigious Online Undergraduate Universities 2 3 Competing on Convenience Integrating Academic and Career Preparation Incumbent Responses: Flipped Classrooms Adaptive Learning Learning Analytics Course Sharing Consortia 4 Problem Focused Research 26 Notes:
14 Quality at Scale 27 Inactive Learning, in Person and Online Few Benefits from Static Content Delivery Sage on the Stage Less Engaging Lecture Generic Online Course Reading 1 2 hours of lecture No way to rewind Physical constraints of classroom Students play passive role Group Discussion Practice / Projects Teaching Others Readings and homework posted online No forum for interaction correspondence No additional value from technology More Engaging Quality at Scale 28 Making the Most of Large Classes How Ontario s Best Faculty Approach High Capacity Instruction Problem Feeling of anonymity, no personal connections More students mean more work for faculty Few incentives or resources for instructional innovation Solution Creating a Sense of Community Improving Efficiency Supporting a Culture of Teaching Strategies Supplementary tutorials Think Pair Share Extensive course websites Social media Clickers Pre class availability Peer mentorships LMS administration Commercial assessment software Pre recorded content Open educational resources TA led tutorials Team based instruction Teaching & learning center Scholarship of teaching Teaching emphasis in promotion guidelines Dean & chair support Professional development workshops Teaching awards Source: Angelika Kerr, Teaching and Learning in Large Classes in Ontario Universities: An Exploratory Study, Higher Education Quality Council of Ontario, 2011; Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.
15 Crowd Sourced Student Support Incentivizing Heads of the Class to Help Others in a Class of 160,000+ Can someone recommend prerequisite materials to read before the start of the class? 13-4 A: Try the Khan Academy lectures. Answered by AISuperFan A : Look it up on Wikipedia. Answered by WalesJ Peers Vote Both Questions and Answers Up or Down Based on Usefulness Thrun s A.I. Class Discussion Board Karma History Asked by JWilson Great Answer Good Answer Pundit 1,527 Karma 2 Recent Activity Feed Reward Badges Motivate Quality Contributions Good Answer: Answer voted up 25 times Great Answer: Answer voted up 100 times Pundit: User has left 10 comments 3 Real Time Dashboard Provokes Progress Over Time, Daily Activity Source: Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis. Quality at Scale Winning on All Fronts with Course Redesign Alternative Model Expands Capacity, Improves Quality, and Costs Less 30 Faculty TAs and Peer Mentors Concept 1 Concept 2 Concept 3 Pre Reading Pre Quiz Lecture Practices Problem Solving Homework Embedded Videos Pre Lecture Prep e Tutor Mini Tests e Tutor Reduction in Increase in 12% DFW rate 45% enrollment cap 31% Cost savings per student Source: Physics Large Course Redesign Project Report, UNC Charlotte, Center for Teaching & Learning, Sept. 8, 2011.
16 31 Few Excuses Left Course Redesign Gaining Traction Across Institutional Types and Disciplines I always thought I was a pretty good lecturer, but I had come to a realization that even my most successful students weren t retaining a lot of the material I d covered from one course to the next. Elizabeth Alexander Texas Wesleyan History Professor Math History Emporium model: 1 hour in class, 2 hours in large computer lab Significantly improved completion and retention rates 19% instructional cost savings English Historical Methods class won Radically Flexible Classroom award Movable furniture and tech enabled classrooms facilitate group work Physics Clickers and frequent feedback opportunities keep students on track Students grouped based on answers to questions From 3 hours to 1 hour in class per week Additional time spent in one on one sessions, peer tutoring, and multimedia lessons Do our students actually learn during class, or do they simply feverishly scribble down everything we say, hoping somehow to understand the material later? Eric Mazur Harvard Physics Professor Source: The National Center for Academic Transformation (www.thencat.org); Texas Wesleyan s Classroom.NEXT: 21 st Century Learning in Action, Campus Technology, April 10, Quality at Scale 32 Incentivizing Pedagogical Change Three Lessons in Encouraging Faculty to Improve Their Courses Provide Centralized Instructional Design Support Typical Problem: Multiple, duplicative services No integration of tech & instructional design expertise Exemplar Model: Center for Teaching & Learning combines tech and pedagogy staff Staff directly involved with course design at all levels Focus on New Hires to Create Culture of Innovation Typical Problem: Political capital spent trying to convert eternal skeptics Research remains the priority Exemplar Model: Faculty Development Institute focuses on new hires 100s of short courses available on every facet of teaching It s Not About Technology. It s About Assessment. Typical Problem: Faculty recoil at online and machine aided teaching Wasteful tech investments Exemplar Model: Faculty required to submit selfassessment studies yearly Agnostic about end product; experimentation encouraged
17 Quality at Scale Building Assessment In Instructor Dashboards Provide Real Time Outcome Data, Predictive Analytics 33 Source: Candace Thille, Changing the Production Function in Higher Education, American Council on Education, March Aiming Higher than Equivalence While continuing to study the impact of online learning on completion is important, the question to be answered is not is online education as good as (or better than) traditional education? but rather, how can the technology be used most effectively to support and accelerate colleges efforts to dramatically increase student progress and completion? Candace Thille Director, Open Learning Initiative A Change of Heart I have been on record for some time as being skeptical about the likely effects on productivity in higher education of various new technologies But the evidence...about the work at Carnegie Mellon has caused me to rethink my positions. William Bowen President Emeritus, Princeton University Source: Candace Thille, Changing the Production Function in Higher Education, American Council on Education, Feb 2012.
18 Quality at Scale Game Based Learning on the Horizon Motivating and Educating a Generation of Gamers 35 6 Million Years 200 Million Minutes Total worldwide playtime Total playtime per day 10 Million Players 1 Billion Downloads Currently subscribed Since 2009 Built in Assessment Contextual Learning Motivating Progression Players must solve problems, coordinate teams, and develop mastery to beat the game Completion signifies known competencies and objective achievements Players learn by doing, not reading or watching Puzzles placed in compelling, intuitive narrative Crowd sourced theorycrafting for serious players Games must be accessible and fun, yet challenging Huge amount of data used to calibrate incentives Experience points and items provide social recognition Source: James Paul Gee, Games and 21 st Century Learning, Games for Learning Institute, May 6, 2009; Jane McGonigal, Be a Gamer, Save the World, The Wall Street Journal, Jan 22, Transforming Commodity Courses Breaking the Cost / Capacity Curve With Self Paced Learning Adaptive Software Promotes Engagement and Provides Analytics Dramatic Improvement in Remediation Results Activity Based Learning Short, engaging, real world problems to solve Moved into regular freshman math 25% 50% Finished 4 weeks early Achievement Points Uses game like badge system to track progress and motivate students Automated Assessment Built into activities and diagnostic exams, which adapt to performance Performance Dashboards Instructors focus face time on biggest stumbling blocks 75% 66% Pass Rate Before Remedial Math Pilot 5,000 students 13% 6% Withdraw Rate After Source: Bruce Upbin, Knewton Is Building the World s Smartest Tutor, Forbes Magazine, Feb. 22, 2012.
19 Quality at Scale 37 Course Sharing Consortia Comprehensiveness Achieved by Combining Offerings Online Lowering the Cost and Risk of Launching Online Programs Online Consortium of Independent Colleges & Universities (OCICU) New Ventures of Regis University provides online infrastructure Course design, maintenance, and faculty training included Shared Course Portal Taking Niche Offerings to Scale Without Sacrificing Breadth New Paradigm Initiative Associated Colleges of the South Courses broadcast via teleconference; remote students participate in real time Declining viability of language departments a key catalyst Departments offer many sub scale courses Yet colleges still struggle to afford breadth 83 Institutions 16 Institutions Chinese Physics Art History Biology Arabic Source: Leigh Brown Perkins, A New Paradigm For Learning, Rollins Magazine, March The Platform Wars Big Data Fueling Emerging Market for Education s Google Equivalent Next Gen Learning Platform Class2Go Course administration Multimedia content delivery Live collaboration tools Real time performance data Predictive analytics Adaptive assessment Automated advising The Power of a Platform It's hard to predict who will win the platform wars, but it's easy to predict that someone will. The costs of building an online platform are negligible The rewards of building the winning platform are vast, as Instagram found when it was bought by Facebook for $1 billion. Kevin Carey, New America Foundation How Many Providers Do We Need? In 50 years, there will be only 10 institutions in the world delivering higher education and Udacity has a shot at being one of them. Sebastian Thrun Source: Kevin Carey, Revenge of the Underpaid Professors, The Chronicle of Higher Education, May 20, 2012.
20 39 Disruptive Competition and Incumbent Innovation Pressures on the Traditional Higher Education Business Model 1 2 Quality at Scale Competing on Convenience Lower cost options, more convenient delivery modes, and targeted marketing attract students who would not otherwise have enrolled 3 4 Integrating Academic and Career Preparation Problem Focused Research Disruptive Competitors: Affinity Population Marketing Competency Based Placement Pay by the Course Subscriptions No Frills Charter Universities Incumbent Responses: Affinity Market Support Flexible Articulation On Time Graduation Guarantees 2+2 Models 3+2 and 4+1 Master s Programs 40 Notes:
21 41 The Non Traditional Majority Full Time Residential 18 to 22 Year Olds a Declining Share Significant Percentage of Undergraduates Now Non Traditional 46% 36% 32% Enrolled Part Time Age 25 or Older Employed Full Time 23% Are Parents Hispanic Population and Enrollment Growing Rapidly 5% 1% White 9% 11% 3% Native American 43% 43% 24% 23% 37% Black Asian Hispanic US Population Growth Rate, Projected College Enrollment Growth Rate, Source: NCES Statistics; 2010 Census; Forecast for Growth on Campuses: More Women, Minorities, The Chronicle of Higher Education, Aug. 21, Competing on Convenience Targeting the Non Consumers For Profit Universities Serve Traditionally Non College Going Populations 42 Attracting More Diverse Students Race/Ethnicity of Student Population Serving Families with Lower Incomes Family Income for Dependent Students 61% 60% 54% 38% 39% 36% 28% 23% 23% 17% 9% 10% White Non White Multi Race, Unknown, Non Resident Alien For Profit Four Year Public Four Year Public Two Year Private Four Year $100K and Above $40K $59K $20K $39K Under $20K 26% 10% 14% 18% 17% 12% 17% 30% 8% 12% 24% Private Public For Profit 39% Source: BMO Capital Markets
22 43 Access at a Price Growth in For Profit Sector Accompanied by Concerns About Debt Winning on Flexibility [For profit institutions] play a critical role in the future of education by providing access to students who previously have been left behind by or excluded from the traditional higher education system in the U.S We do this by providing flexible scheduling, a choice of online or campus based classrooms, small class sizes, degree programs relevant to today s workforce, faculty who have professional experience in their field of instruction, and high levels of student support to help students succeed. The Apollo Group, Higher Education at a Crossroads Growth of Undergraduate Enrollments Student Loan Default Rate After $10,000 20,000 Debt by 2009 For Profit 539% For Profit 16% Public Private Nonprofit All 32% 21% 42% Community Colleges Four Year Colleges 2% 3% Source: The Chronicle of Higher Education, Analysis of U.S. Education Department data; David J. Deming, Claudia Goldin, & Lawrence F. Katz, The For Profit Postsecondary School Sector: Nimble Critters or Agile Predators? Center for Analysis of Postsecondary Education and Employment, Feb Competing on Convenience Targeting Underserved Demographics New Enrollment Markets Require New Institutional Competencies 44 Hispanic Students Maximizing Campus Support Beyond Marketing Hispanic Outreach & Leadership at Armstrong (HOLA) combines admission, advising, financial aid, event, and community support services 3.3 M Building Community New Latino leadership program, fraternities, sororities, and dance team Ensuring Access Special scholarships help overcome new financial barriers for undocumented students Proven Results Hispanic enrollment up 200% over last decade; retention and graduation rates higher among Hispanics than non Hispanics Soon to Expand Received Lumina grant to lead local Latino college attendance drive Active Duty Military and Veterans Utilizing Third Party Services Personalized Mentoring Transition Coach eases shift to higher education and civilian workforce Access to Instant Network National community of veterans study and connect together online Instructional Partners tailor curricula: o 2+2Plus U of California GE courses during active duty, transition to campus life afterward o Pre MBA Bootcamp Free basic course, Quant Primer from UCLA Extension, MBA placement o Silicon Valley Concentration 6 week intro course, post bacc program with 7 web based concentrations Source: Jennifer Gonzalez, Swimming Against the Political Tide, a Public University in Georgia Reaches Out to Hispanics, The Chronicle of Higher Education, Jan. 22, 2012; Education Advisory Board interviews and analysis.