Extract from. Études et Dossiers No M.O.R.E. 24 Seminar. Modelling and Mapping Risks (MMR) June 2010 Bermuda

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1 International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics Études et Dossiers Extract from Études et Dossiers No. 364 M.O.R.E. 24 Seminar Modelling and Mapping Risks (MMR) June 2010 Bermuda This document is free to download from The Geneva Association website, October 2010 Working Paper Series of The Geneva Association Association Internationale pour l'etude de l'economie de l'assurance The Geneva Association - General Secretariat - 53, route de Malagnou - CH-1208 Geneva Tel.: Fax: secretariat@genevaassociation.org -

2 The Geneva Association Working Paper Series Études et Dossiers appear at irregular intervals about times per year. Distribution is limited. The Études et Dossiers are the working paper series of The Geneva Association. These documents present intermediary or final results of conference proceedings, special reports and research done by The Geneva Association. Where they contain work in progress or summaries of conference presentations, the material must not be cited without the express consent of the author in question. This document is free to download from The Geneva Association website, please visit:. Layout & Distribution: Valéria Kozakova The Geneva Association - Association Internationale pour l'etude de l'economie de l'assurance

These documents present intermediary or final results of conference proceedings, special reports and research done by The Geneva Association.

3 The Inform Early Warning System for the Early Detection and Monitoring of Risks Gerhard Schmid Agenda 1. Introduction 2. Fundamentals of semantic web analysis 3. How does EWS Inform work? What can it deliver? 4. Routes to success 5. Benefits of EWS 6. Conclusio 2-1

Fundamentals of semantic web analysis 3. How does EWS Inform work?

4 1. Introduction Knowledge is power! 4 2-2

5 Identification of new threats 5 When and how? 6 2-3

6 2. FUNDAMENTALS OF SEMANTIC WEB ANALYSIS Interactive internet search engines open up new possibilities EWS Message boards Online news papers 1st step 3rd step Search engine 2nd step Legal search engine Last step Weblogs Online news TV Newspapers US lawyer websites Decision of the Supreme Court Timeline Minutes - Days Days - Weeks Months Months - Years Several years Reaction Time 8 2-4

Legal search engine Last step Weblogs Online news TV Newspapers US lawyer websites Decision of

7 Software architecture EWS News Agent with the help of taxonomic analysis of xml-formats Extension to normal web pages to gather contents semantic web analysis Title of presentation and name of speaker 9 Analysis with text mining und tokenisers Through nanotechnology there will be opportunities to strengthen environmental protection. Results: Processing of statistics enabling time series and trend analyses, content analyses, development analyses and dependency analyses to be performed

Through nanotechnology there will be opportunities to strengthen environmental protection.

8 Blogs collective stores of knowledge for mankind 11 Can groups be emerging risks think tanks?

9 It can be done with RSS feeds 13 What does EWS Inform analyse? 50,000 blogs and news and discussion groups 30,000 US lawyer websites 3,000 NGO websites 18,000 online newspaper sites 24 hours a day, 365 day a year; daily analysis

10 Two paths to success Bottom-up approach: Search for known emerging risks with simultaneous monitoring of trends Emerging risks: e.g. nanotechnology, acrylamide, Vioxx, cancer, lawyers, genetics Top-down approach: Search for and identification of new risk types through words such as risk, threat, peril, danger, crisis HOW DOES EWS INFORM WORK? WHAT CAN IT DELIVER? 2-8

11 EWS Inform introductory screen 17 Establishing a trend: abuse

12 EWS context analysis of abuse 19 Annual analysis by EWS Development tells us where the current hot spots are December nd quarter September 3rd quarter 1st quarter March 4th quarter June

13 Annual analysis of risk part 1 21 Annual analysis of risk part

14 Dependencies and risk clusters for risk 23 Comparison of the swine flu outbreak in Mexico with EWS Inform results

15 4. THE ROUTE TO SUCCESS The route to success Data mining is the process of data selection, exploration and model-building using vast stores of data to uncover previously unknown patterns. During the scanning process, the contents of the web pages visited are keyworded in the predefined xml format. The tool automatically establishes correlations that are not immediately apparent. It is also able to automatically tap surveys, observations and trends without having to perform extensive data searches on the internet. 2-13

During the scanning process, the contents of the web pages visited are keyworded in the predefined xml format.

16 The route to success Data mining reaches across industries and business functions. EWS would protect t the portfolio, since it helps to identify at an early stage new trends. EWS may also help us identify phantom risks and verify their plausibility. 5. BENEFITS OF EWS 2-14

EWS would protect t the portfolio, since it helps to identify at an

17 Benefits of EWS The analysis of correlations may enable us to identify new business opportunities at an early stage. Since new loss trends and major claims complexes can be detected early on, potential losses can be avoided/reduced. Given the quantity of data involved, EWS would allow us to detect and compile information that would normally remain hidden to Google users. 5. CONCLUSIO 2-15

Since new loss trends and major claims complexes can be detected early on, potential losses can

Extract from. Études et Dossiers No. 295. Annual Liability Regimes Conference A European Perspective on Global Developments

Extract from. Études et Dossiers No. 295. Annual Liability Regimes Conference A European Perspective on Global Developments International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics Études et Dossiers Extract from Études et Dossiers No. 295 Annual Liability Regimes Conference A an Perspective on Global Developments 27