Natural Gas & Electricity Prices
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1 Click to dit Mastr titl styl Click to dit Mastr txt styls Scond lvl Third lvl Natural Gas & Elctricity Prics Fourth lvl» Fifth lvl Glnn S. Pool Manufacturing Support Mgr. Enrgy April 4, 2013
2 Click Vrso to Gnration dit Mastr titl styl Elctrical Gnration Mix: Click to dit Mastr txt styls 300+ MW Combustion turbin capacity (4 units) Scond lvl Primarily Third lvl natural gas A portion Fourth lvl is mrchant plant opration All» dual Fifth ful: lvl th only units in Main 50 MW stam turbin gnration (gas drivn) 130+ MW Biomass gnration 30 MW Run-of-Rivr hydro gnration 20 MW Oil gnration (rarly oprats)
3 Click Th Shal to dit Gas Mastr Rvolution! titl styl Click to dit Mastr txt styls $16.00 Scond lvl $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 Third lvl Fourth lvl» Fifth lvl NYMEX Natural Gas Commodity $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Apr-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12
4 Wholsal Elctricity Gas Pric Connction Click to dit Mastr titl styl Click to dit Mastr txt styls Scond lvl Third lvl Fourth lvl» Fifth lvl Sourc: ISO NE - January 2013
5 Click Natural to dit Gas Pric Mastr Mchanisms titl styl Click Dlivrd to dit natural Mastr gas txt pric styls has 3 componnts Commodity Scond lvl NYMEX or Hnry Hub pric Third lvl Basis Fourth lvl Transportation to gt gas to diffrnt physical location» Fifth lvl Supplir Addr To covr Supplirs costs and margin Why is this mchanism important? Basis & addr ar a fw dims (combind) for most of US In som parts of US basis is NEGATIVE Basis & addr ar a fw dollars in Nw England Pak during Fbruary was mor than $30
6 Manufacturing Comptitivnss Click to dit Mastr titl styl Main natural gas pric is highst in nation Diffrnc forcast to incras Click to dit Mastr txt styls Scond lvl Third lvl Fourth lvl Main» Fifth lvl Michigan Txas
7 Click Natural to dit Gas Piplin Mastr titl Map styl Click to dit Mastr txt styls Scond lvl Third lvl Fourth lvl» Fifth lvl
8 Click Natural to dit Gas Piplins: Mastr titl Nw styl England Click to dit Mastr txt styls Scond lvl Third lvl Fourth lvl» Fifth lvl Nw England Sourcs Sabl Island Canaport LNG PNGTS Piplin AGT Piplin TGP Piplin
9 Click Nw England to dit Mastr Gnration titl styl Sourc Click to dit Mastr txt styls Scond lvl Third lvl Fourth lvl» Fifth lvl
10 Th Problm: Rgional Risk Click to dit Mastr titl styl *Rgion-spcific factors hav incrasd risk for customrs with physical opn (floating) transportation positions. Click to dit Mastr txt styls Rcurring Factors Nw Fundamntal Shifts in Markt Scond lvl Third lvl Cold Wathr Fourth incrass lvl gas dmand (nothing lik 2004 cold snap)» Fifth lvl Intrstat Piplin Capacity Constraints (Algonquin piplin) Nuclar Outags this wintr (Pilgrim: Plymouth, MA) Incrasd Gas-Fird Gnration (Nw England) Comptition for Canadian Gas from Algonquin Dmand Canadian Supply Problms -Dp Panuk (dlays chang bhavior of trm buyrs) -LNG (high pric supply only) -Rapid wll dpltion rat (x. Sabl Island)
11 Click LNG Global to dit Prics Mastr titl styl Click to dit Mastr txt styls Scond lvl Third lvl Fourth lvl» Fifth lvl
12 Click to dit Mastr titl styl Click to dit Mastr txt styls Scond lvl Third lvl Fourth lvl» Fifth lvl Qustions?
13 Forcast/Brakdown: Commrcial Elctric Rats Click to dit Mastr titl styl Click to dit Mastr txt styls Scond lvl Third lvl Fourth lvl» Fifth lvl Sourc: London Economics Intrnational Dcmbr 2012
14 Click Vrso to Dmand dit Mastr Rspons titl styl Click What to is dit Dmand Mastr Rspons txt styls (DR)? Rducing lctricity load at tims of high dmand Scond lvl I.. Third shutting lvl down papr machins during hat wav or cold snap Fourth lvl» Fifth lvl NG piplin rstraints: ISO-NE is concrnd Dmand Rspons hlps grid during ths vnts ISO-NE rul changs ld to narly 1000 MW of DR dlisting in rcnt capacity auction Vrso has providd substantial DR Load rduction plus xporting gnration to grid
15 Click Vrso to Enrgy dit Mastr Efficincy titl styl Click Efficincy to dit Main Mastr Trust/DOE txt styls Projcts Efficincy Improvmnt Projcts Scond lvl Hat rcovry, comprssd air savings Third lvl Watr rus Fourth lvl Efficint quipmnt componnt dsign» Fifth lvl Gnration fficincy improvmnts - hydro facility EMT Projcts savd or gnratd 6.5 MM kwh/yr Enrgy Enginrs Ddicatd d nginrs coordinat nrgy savings opportunitis Potntial nrgy fficincy and consrvation projct list projcts/initiativs valuatd and trackd
16 Click Major to Oil dit and Mastr Gas Piplins: titl styl US Click to dit Mastr txt styls Scond lvl Third lvl Fourth lvl» Fifth lvl
17 Rgional Gas Pricing Volatility: A Masur Click to of dit Risk Mastr titl styl Algonquin Piplin (Nw England) -- Daily Pricing Sttls Click to dit Mastr txt styls Scond lvl Third lvl Fourth lvl» Fifth lvl Sourc: Schnidr Elctric
18 Click to dit Mastr titl styl Click to dit Mastr txt styls Scond lvl Third lvl Fourth lvl» Fifth lvl
19 Vrso is a Main Company Click to dit Mastr titl styl Androscoggin Mill Click to dit Mastr txt styls Scond lvl Third lvl Fourth lvl Opnd for businss in 1965.» Fifth lvl Employs mor than 960 popl oprating fiv papr machins. Capabl of producing mor than 1900 tons pr day of coatd groundwood and coatd frsht paprs for offst and rotogravur printing on thr coatd machins. Also producs spcialty grads on two othr machins. Bucksport Mill Opnd for businss in Employs mor than 580 popl oprating four papr machins. Capabl of producing mor than 1050 tons pr day of lightwight coatd groundwood paprs for offst and rotogravur printing. Also producs spcialty grads for packaging g and printing. Total 2012 annual payroll: $165 million in wags and bnfits for folks. Total 2012 annual purchass from in-stat t vndors: $450 million in goods and srvics purchasd from 300 Main companis in mor than 250 Main towns. 19
20 Click What to dit do? Mastr titl styl Click Main to basd dit Mastr manufacturing txt styls must rmain comptitiv: how? Scond lvl Support KV and PV gas piplins Third lvl Must also support initiativs to incras NG flow to rgion Fourth lvl Nw gas piplin into southrn Nw England» Fifth lvl Dvlopmnt of Nw Brunswick shal gas plays NG convrsion conundrum Savings for thos currntly on oil: but not to national par Incras for thos currntly with accss to NG (incl. LNG) Nithr will b comptitiv without additional supply capacity into rgion
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