Charles Zerah Fund Manager Fixed Income Markets

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1 Charles Zerah Fund Manager Fixed Income Markets 1

2 Charles ZERAH Fund Manager Global Bonds 2010 Carmignac Gestion Credit Agricole Asset Management, London Head of Emerging Market bonds Crédit Lyonnais Asset Management, Paris Senior fund manager: Emerging Market bonds Axa Investment Managers, Paris Junior fund manager: Emerging Market bonds Master in Banking and Finance DESS in Finance, University of Paris II Panthéon Assas 2

3 3 Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond A Flexible and Opportunistic Style Enhancing a Total Return Approach

4 Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond: Investment process and Objectives Recommended investment horizon: 2 years Central macro-economic scenario OBJECTIVE: MAXIMIZING PERFORMANCE AND OUTPERFORM ITS REFERENCE INDICATOR* THROUGH 3 PERFORMANCE DRIVERS Interest rate strategies Credit spread strategies Currency strategies Risk Management / Portfolio Construction PORTFOLIO *JP Morgan Global Government Bond (Eur) 4

5 Fixed Income Expertise at Carmignac 5

6 A Reinforced Team Combining Complementary Profiles Average experience of over 16 years Global fixed income management Bond and currency allocation Rose Ouahba Head of Fixed Income Carmignac Patrimoine AUM: M Carmignac Court Terme AUM: 226M Charles Zerah Fund Manager Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond AUM: 1 096M Carmignac Portfolio Emerging Patrimoine AUM: 982M Carlos Galvis Fund Manager Carmignac Portfolio Capital Plus AUM: 3 217M Keith Ney Fund Manager Carmignac Sécurité AUM: 6 535M Credit Issuer selection Sector analysis Pierre Verlé Head of Credit Interaction with Equity Team Trading desk Sami Lahoussine Trader Dedicated to Bonds and Currencies Vincent Aguado Trader Dedicated to Bonds and Currencies Source: Carmignac Gestion, 28/02/2015 6

7 Strategies and Convictions are a Result of Interactions with the Global Management Team Rigorous analysis is carried out by sector specialists Rose OUAHBA Head of Team Fund Manager Carlos GALVIS Fund Manager Edouard CARMIGNAC Fund Manager Chairman FIXED INCOME EXPERTISE Frédéric LEROUX Global manager Macro economic strategy and derivatives instruments Obe EJIKEME Quantitative Analyst Charles ZERAH Fund Manager Keith NEY Fund Manager Pierre Verlé Head of Credit MACRO ECONOMIC EXPERTISE Laurent CHEBANIER Analyst Country Risk Julien CHERON Fund Manager Quantitative Analyst DAILY MANAGEMENT MEETING 7 SPECIFIC EXPERTISE Xavier HOVASSE Fund Manager Emerging Markets David PARK Fund Manager Emerging Markets Michael HULME Fund Manager Commodities Muhamed YESILHARK Fund Manager European Equities Vincent STEENMAN Global Research Coordinator Analyst - Industry Tim JAKSLAND Analyst - IT. Healthcare. Alternative energies Antoine COLONNA Analyst - Consumer sector Matthew WILLIAMS Analyst - Financial Sector

8 Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond Investment Philosophy 8

9 Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond: Investment Philosophy GLOBAL VIEW FLEXIBLE NON BENCHMARKED ALLOCATION OPPORTUNISTIC & ACTIVE MANAGEMENT A wide range of performance drivers Freedom to implement a largely unconstrained allocation Swiftly adapting the portfolio to changing scenarios and gaining exposure to best exploit favorite ideas 9

10 1 Global View: Contribution to Performance over 5 years from a Wide Range of Drivers 5-years Performance drivers at 27/02/2015 (as percentage) Rates Strategies G4 Sovereigns 5.62 Peripheral Sovereigns Oceania Sovereigns 2.07 Emerging Sovereigns 5.18 Credit Strategies Financials 9.49 Others 9.37 Currency Strategies 2.62 US Dollar 4.89 Japanese Yen 1.66 Emerging currencies Others* 0.29 Money Market 0.04 Net Performance Peripheral sovereign bonds (Ex: Italy, Spain) Financial credit, led by contingent convertibles and subordinated Developed currencies strategies (Ex: US Dollar, Japanese Yen) Emerging markets strategies (Ex: Brazilian rates & currencies) *Including among others AUD, CAD, CHF and GBP Source: Carmignac Gestion, 27/02/2015. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. 10

11 2 Flexible, Non-Benchmarked Allocation: Proof 10 Change in Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond's Total Modified Duration 70% Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond's Peripheral Bonds Allocation vs Ref. Indicator* % 50% 40% 52,5% 57,3% 49,3% 45,7% 43,0% 1 30% 23,4% 28,2% 25,8% 20% -2 10% 9,4% 10,0% 10,2% 10,7% 10,9% 10,6% 11% 10,6% -5 0% Q1 13 Q2 13 Q3 13 Q4 13 Q1 14 Q2 14 Q3 14 Mar Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond Reference Indicator* *JP Morgan Global Government Bond (Eur) Source: Carmignac Gestion at 19/03/

12 3 25% 20% Active and Opportunistic Approach: Example We actively manage our exposure to performance drivers according to our macro scenario Financial CoCos (% of total assets) 15% 10% We can pass from negative to positive currency exposure within few days 15% 10% 5% 0% 07/13 11/13 03/14 07/14 11/14 40% 30% 20% 35,5% 25,4% EM local debt (% of total assets) 10% 4,6% 3,5% 0,0% 0,0% 0% 30/04/ /11/ /06/ /01/2015 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% -20% -25% Japanese Yen Exposure Source: Carmignac Gestion, 31/01/

13 Track Record 13

14 Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond in Perspective Charles Zerah Fund Manager 3-Year Performance Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond % Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond Perf. YTD % Morningstar Ranking (quartile) years % years % Reference Indicator* % 3 years Overall Morningstar Rating *JP Morgan GBI Global (EUR) Source: Carmignac Gestion at 19/03/2015 Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns 14

15 Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond: Three years Performance versus Reference Indicator The Fund Opportunistic and Conviction driven process can lead to short periods of underperformance but results in strong outperformance over a longer investment horizon Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond % Reference Indicator* % *JP Morgan GBI Global (EUR) Source: Carmignac Gestion at 19/03/2015 Past performance is not a guarantee of future returns 15

16 Strategies & Positioning 16

17 Our Performance Drivers for the Coming Months Normalisation of US monetary policy Tactical management of the modified duration Further European convergence Allocation to peripheral sovereigns Improvement in financial sector spreads Allocation to corporate bonds, with a focus on banks Currencies Long exposure to the Dollar 17

18 Government Bonds 18

19 Flexible Management of our Modified Duration is a Plus in this New Environment Change in Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond's modified duration over 2 years Flexible management of modified duration Drastic reduction in modified duration after Ben Bernanke mentioned the possibility of tapering quantitative easing Bringing modified duration back into positive territory following Fed s announcement to postpone a reduction in its bond purchases Increased modified duration in response to sluggish global growth Source: Carmignac Gestion, 19/03/

20 Europe: Is Inflation Back? 2,6 EUR inflation 5y5y 2,4 2,2 Draghi posted: Historic low rates TLTROs 2 ABS/covered bonds 1,8 1,6 1,4 Sovereign QE In spite of that Long term inflation is still struggling Source: Carmignac Gestion, 28/02/

21 ECB QE: A Significant Sovereign Bond Buying Program ECB QE Will Take-Up 50% of Gross issuance in 2015 EUR bn 2015 issuance Redemptions Net issuance QE programme (450bn) % of gross issuance Net issuance minus ECB purchases Germany % -111 France % -10 Italy* % -37 Finland % -2 Spain % -14 Netherlands % -12 Belgium % -5 Greece* % 0 Austria % -7 Portugal % -2 Ireland % 2 Total % -196 Source: Danske Bank, February 2015 * Italy and Greece have not published issuance target Note: totals do not sum since not all 19 Euro area countries are shown 21

22 Eurozone: the QE had a Significant Impact on Sovereign Debt 10 year Spanish vs. German Rates 3% Eurozone 10-year yields 7% 6% 5% 2% 1% 0,23% 1,29% 1,33% 1,80% 4% 3% 2% 0% Germany Spain Italy Portugal 2015 Outlook 1% 0% -1% 93 bps Recent QE announcement should lead us to take profits on convictions German rates at low levels and vulnerable on a relative basis Source: Left: Bloomberg, 28/02/2015 Right: Bloomberg, 24/03/

23 UK Rates: Weaker Inflation and Growth could Force Yields Lower UK Real Estate Loans (in billion euros) 10-year yields: 1.5% Towards lower growth in 2015 (2.9%) 2015 Outlook Strong Pound/weak inflation (at 0.3%) has led the BOE to indicate that rates rise could be delayed 12 Probable tough austerity measures following general elections (May 2015) 10 Strategy Long position on UK rates Source: LHS: Financial Times, November 2014 RHS: Bloomberg, 24/03/

24 New Zealand: Rates Benefiting from Central Banks Pause and Assess Strategy 10-year yields: 3.2% Inflation (%) 10-year rates (%) 6 5 6, Outlook ,5 5,0 4,5 4,0 Entry point AAA-rated country Debt-to-GDP Ratio: 35% Declining inflation and growth Attractive valuations 1 3,5 0 3,0 Sources: Bloomberg Left: 31/12/2014 Right: 24/03/

25 Credit 25

26 Regulatory Ecosystem Reducing Vulnerability of Financial System Price of Risk AT1 LCR Bailin SPE OLA NSFR PONV SSM G-SIFI Vulnerability to Shocks and Price of Risk PRA MDA O-SIFI SRF Basel 3 Living wills MPE Solvency 2 Liikanen Coco DGS Leverage ratio Size of shock CCB RRM Bailinable buffer SRM Dodd Frank Volker CCCB CCAR AQR CRD4 Source: BoA ML, Carmignac Gestion, January

27 Credit: European Banks Still Offer Significant Up-side «Core Tier 1» ratio by country Financial credit yields UK France Eurozone Spain 9% 7% 5% 3% 1% 0,30% 0,60% 2,36% 4,26% 6,40% -1% Covered Seniors Sub High Yield "CoCos" 2015 Outlook Improving fundamentals Continued spread compression Compelling valuations Source: Left: SNL, ECB, SG Cross Asset Research/Global Asset Allocation, 08/12/2014 Right: Bloomberg, 28/02/

28 SANTAN CMZB BBVA BNP CASA BACR UCGIM SOCGEN STANLN RBS ING HSBC DB LLOYDS CA Grp ISPIM Credit : Banking Union Moving Forward : Implementation of Single Supervisory Mechanism ECB is now the central supervisor of financial institutions in the eurozone 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Fully loaded CET1 ratios at Q3 14 Source : BofA, January 2015 Santander equity vs. bond ( ) Santander raised capital cushion to around 10% Raised roughly Eur. 7.5 bln through sale of equity Bond (price) Equity 8 7,5 7 6, ,5 Source: Bloomberg, 28/02/

29 A Credit Component Benefiting from the Restructuring of the European Financial System 3,0 Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond: credit modified duration breakdown 2,5 2,0 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 Non Financials European Financials Other Financials Source: Carmignac Gestion, 24/03/

30 Currencies 30

31 Currencies: Dollar to Benefit from Growth, Rate and Monetary Policy Differentials 1,0% US vs. German 2 yr govt. bond yields 5000 ECB vs Fed Balance Sheets ($ bln) 0,9% 0,8% 0,7% 0,6% 0,5% 0,4% 0,3% 0,2% 0,1% 0,0% FED ECB Source: LHS: Bloomberg, 28/02/2015 RHS: Bloomberg, 25/02/

32 Dollar: Our Allocation to the Greenback Remains a Counterweight to our European Positions Financial corporate bonds, mostly European, denominated in euro Peripheral government bonds denominated in euro US dollar allocation 30% Performance drivers Portfolio Risk management tool Source: Carmignac Gestion, 24/03/

33 Carmignac Portfolio Global Bond: Allocation of Modified Duration Illustrates the Balanced Strategy Performance drivers Risk management Financial Credit 102 bps CoCos 79 bps Subordinated 20 bps Senior 3 bps Peripheral Sovereigns 86 bps Portugal 27 bps Spain 27 bps Greece 19 bps Italy 13 bps Core Sovereigns 420 bps UK 371 bps New Zealand 69 bps Australia 23 bps US -43 bps Overall Modified Duration*: 619 bps USD: 30% * Including non-financial corporate bonds and cash Source: Carmignac Gestion, 24/03/

34 Disclaimer l presente documento è destinato unicamente ai clienti professionali. Il presente documento non può essere riprodotto, diffuso, divulgato, totalmente o parzialmente, senza la previa autorizzazione della società di gestione. Non si tratta né di un'offerta di sottoscrizione né di una consulenza d'investimento. Le informazioni contenute nel presente documento possono essere incomplete e potrebbero subire modifiche in qualsiasi momento senza preavviso. Scala che va da 1 (rischio più basso) a 7 (rischio più elevato); il rischio 1 non significa che l'investimento sia privo di rischio. Questo indicatore può evolvere nel tempo. Le performance passate non sono un'indicazione delle performance future. Le spese sono comprese nelle performance. Alcuni soggetti o paesi potrebbero subire restrizioni di accesso ai Fondi. I Fondi non possono essere offerti o venduti, in maniera diretta o indiretta, a beneficio o per conto di una "U.S. Person" secondo la definizione della normativa americana "Regulation S" e/o FATCA. L'investimento nei Fondi potrebbe comportare un rischio di perdita di capitale. I rischi e le spese sono descritti nel KIID (documento contenente le informazioni chiave per gli investitori). I prospetti, il KIID e i rapporti di gestione annui dei Fondi sono disponibili sul sito e su semplice richiesta alla Società di Gestione. I KIID devono essere rimessi al sottoscrittore prima della sottoscrizione. Copyright: i dati pubblicati su questa presentazione sono di esclusiva proprietà dei titolari menzionati su ogni pagina. Document no contrattual 24/03/2015 Carmignac Gestion Società di gestione di portafoglio (Autorizzazione AMF n GP del 13/03/1997) SA con capitale di RCS di Parigi B Place Vendôme Paris Tel : Carmignac Gestion Luxembourg Filiale di Carmignac Gestion Società di gestione di OICVM (Autorizzazione CSSF del 10/06/2013) SA con capitale di RC Lussemburgo B67549 City Link -7, rue de la Chapelle L-1325 Luxembourg Tel:

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