Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Mauritius: Towards a Reversal? By
|
|
- Carmella Gregory
- 8 years ago
- Views:
Transcription
1 Sustainability of Current Account Deficit in Mauritius: Towards a Reversal? By A J Khadaroo and I Ramlall Department of Economics and Statistics University of Mauritius March 2012 Abstract Using quarterly data over the period 1999Q1 2011Q3, this paper investigates the sustainability of the current account deficit of Mauritius by applying cointegration and errorcorrection modelling. Total exports, that is goods and services combined, and total imports are not cointegrated but the inclusion of income plus transfers, on a net basis, leads to a cointegrating vector which is, strictly, not compatible with a sustainable current account. The absence of sustainability stems mainly from a growing imbalance between exports and imports of goods. The implied vector-error-correction-model (VECM) suggests that total exports and total imports behave like random-walks while net income plus transfers is the only variable that adjusts to maintain the validity of the estimated cointegrating vector. The analysis highlights the occurrence of unfavourable exports shocks during the period under investigation and attributes these to the dismantling of trade preferences that Mauritius was enjoying with the EU in respect of sugar and textile products. Based on the estimated VECM these adverse exports shocks, expressed in relation to GDP, lead to a permanent fall in the exports potential of the island with no accompanying reduction in imports which have remained stubbornly high. The prevailing Euro crisis, which could probably constitute another significant negative exports shock, may further increase the divergence between total exports and imports. Moreover a prolonging of the observed deceleration in inward foreign direct investment (FDI) shall further reduce the capacity of Mauritius to finance the prevailing current account deficit, which of course cannot be indefinitely funded by external debt and international reserves. In the absence of effective policies to boost exports in the near-term, this unsustainable situation is much likely to trigger a current account reversal. Keywords: Current Account Deficit, Sustainability, Reversal, Cointegration, Error-correction
2 1. Introduction The Current Account is a component of the Balance of Payments (BOP) and the current account balance (CAB) is a key macroeconomic indicator for an open economy. A healthy and sustainable current account arises when a country generates sufficient export revenue to pay for its imports or does not rely excessively on foreign currency inflows, usually in the form investment or external debt, for settling the imports bill. Freund (2000) studies 25 episodes of current account reversals in industrialised countries between 1980 and 1997 and identifies a CAD/GDP threshold of 5% beyond which a current account reversal tends to happen. She finds that domestic real income plays a significant role in the reversal process for industrialised countries and conjectures that foreign investment and external factors could be more important in the reversal process for developing countries. Milesi-Ferretti and Razin (1998) examine the current account in 105 low- and middle-income countries and conclude, inter alia, that current account adjustments are more likely to occur in countries having persistent deficits, low reserves and unfavourable terms of trade and less likely to occur in countries receiving high official transfers and whose debts are largely on concessional terms. Imam (2008) investigates current account adjustment in micro-states following negative terms of trade shocks and finds that adjustment is more likely to occur when the current account deficit is already large, the budget is in surplus, the real effective exchange rate (REER) depreciates, terms of trade improve and GDP growth declines. The present paper studies the current account dynamics of the small island developing state (SIDS) of Mauritius with a view to find out whether the Mauritian current account is sustainable and if it is not, whether a reversal is likely in the light of prevailing economic conditions. Section 2 outlines the theoretical economic framework for the study of current account sustainability and Section 3 provides a review of the empirical literature. Section 4 shows the evolution of the Mauritian current account and its components during the period of investigation. Section 5 contains the econometric methodology and findings. Section 6 concludes and considers policy implications. 2. Economic Model The theoretical framework for the study of current account sustainability is based on the Inter-temporal Budget Constraint (IBC), as described in Trehan and Walsh (1991) and Husted (1992): C t + I t + G t + B t = Y t + (1 + r t ) B t 1 (1)
3 where C t, I t, G t, B t, Y t and r t are respectively consumption, investment, government expenditure, stock of debt, income and interest rate Given that: Y t = C t + I t + G t + X t M t (2) where X t is exports and M t is imports Then: B t (1 + r t ) B t 1 = NX t (3) where NX t = (X t M t ) is net exports The above equation implies that additional debt should be matched by positive net exports. Moreover, negative net exports are not compatible with increased debt burden and should not be financed by additional borrowing. After making some assumptions, including that the interest rate is stationary, Husted (1992) derives a testable model of current account sustainability from the IBC: X = α+ β M + ε (4) t t t where α andβ are parameters andε t is an error term A necessary condition for sustainability is that εt is stationary, i.e. exports and imports move together over time and do not diverge. However, a sufficient condition requires thatβ = 1, i.e. the difference between exports and imports is stationary aroundα. The next section provides a review of the empirical literature wherein the concept of cointegration has been applied to investigate current account sustainability.
4 3. Empirical Review Husted (1992) tests for cointegration between US exports and imports, inclusive of interest payments abroad, and fails to find evidence of cointegration over the period Fountas and Wu (1999), using quarterly US data for the period , also do not find cointegration and conclude that the current is not sustainable. Apergis et al. (2000) test for sustainability of the Greek current account using annual data and conclude that it is sustainable. Bahmani-Oskooee (1994) finds that Australian exports and imports cointegrate and therefore do not diverge over time. Bahmani-Oskooee and Rhee (1997) using quarterly data also find evidence of cointegration between Korean exports and imports. Arize (2002) uses quarterly data between 1973 and 1998 for 50 OECD and developing countries. He finds that exports and imports for 35 of these 50 countries cointegrate. Holmes (2003) investigates stationarity of the current account deficits of a sample of 26 African countries using a panel data unit root test and finds evidence of current account mean-reversion for 21 of these countries. Tang (2003) uses the bounds testing approach to investigate the presence of a long-run relationship between exports and imports of five ASEAN economies and finds that exports and imports are cointegrated for Malaysia and Singapore only. Narayan and Narayan (2004) also using the bounds testing approach find that a long-run relationship between exports and imports exists for Fiji and Papua New Guinea a unit coefficient is estimated in the case of Fiji. Using the Johansen (1995) technique, Irandoust and Ericsson (2004) find a cointegrating relationship between exports and imports for Germany, Sweden and US but not for UK. Narayan and Narayan (2005) investigate a long-run relationship between exports and imports for 22 least developed countries (LDCs) and find evidence of cointegration in only 6 countries. Herzer and Felcitas (2006) find a long-run equilibrium between Chilean exports and imports. In light of the above empirical findings, this paper examines current account sustainability for Mauritius by applying cointegration and error-correction techniques to quarterly data over the period 1999Q1 2011Q3. 1 Before moving to the econometric methodology and findings, a descriptive analysis of the data is provided in the next section. 1 Quarterly macroeconomic data is not available prior to 1999.
5 4. Mauritius: Evolution of Current Account 1999Q1 2011Q3 For this analysis, the current account data is obtained from the Bank of Mauritius, the Central Bank, and GDP data is obtained from Statistics Mauritius, the Central Statistical Office. The main components of the Current Account, namely exports and imports of goods and services as well as income and transfers exchanged between Mauritius and the rest of the world, are expressed as a percentage of GDP. The X12 method is then applied to adjust for seasonality and the resulting quarterly series used in the analysis are: XG_Y_SA exports of goods as a percentage of GDP, seasonally adjusted MG_Y_SA imports of goods as a percentage of GDP, seasonally adjusted XS_Y_SA exports of services as a percentage of GDP, seasonally adjusted MS_Y_SA imports of services as a percentage of GDP, seasonally adjusted X_Y_SA exports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP, seasonally adjusted M_Y_SA imports of goods and services as a percentage of GDP, seasonally adjusted CURRENT_Y_SA current account balance as a percentage of GDP, seasonally adjusted VISIBLE_Y_SA net exports of goods as a percentage of GDP, seasonally adjusted INVISIBLE_Y_SA net exports of services as a percentage of GDP, seasonally adjusted INCTRANS_Y_SA net income and transfers as a percentage of GDP, seasonally adjusted 2 The current account balance and its trend component obtained by applying the Hodrick- Prescott filter are graphed below. 2 Income comprises basically investment income and Transfers comprise government and private transfers.
6 Current Account Balance as a Percentage of GDP, seasonally adjusted (including Tre nd Se rie s obtaine d from Hodrick-Pre scott Filte r) CURRENT_Y_SA CURRENT_Y_SA_HP The current account balance as a percentage of GDP, seasonally adjusted, has varied between a surplus of 7.1% in 2002Q3 and a deficit of 12.8% in 2006Q4. However, the trend deteriorates over time and a deficit has been recorded consistently since 2004Q1. The current account is next decomposed into the visible balance (net exports of goods), invisible balance (net exports of services), and income plus transfers.
7 Visible Balance, Invisible Balance and Income & Transfers (percent of GDP, seasonally adjusted) VISIBLE_Y_SA INVISIBLE_Y_SA INCTRANS_Y_SA The visible balance has constantly been in deficit, improving from 16.6% of GDP in 1999Q2 to 1.2% in 2003Q2 but thereafter worsening to 23.5% in 2008Q1 and fluctuating in the range of 15% 21% since. The invisible balance, conversely, has been in surplus consistently, ranging from 4.4% of GDP in 2006Q3 to 10.8% in 2007Q4. Income & Transfers on a net basis have been in the negative territory only in 3 out of the 51 observed quarters, ranging between a deficit of 1.7% of GDP in 2006Q3 and a surplus of 6.7% in 2009Q4. This shows that the visible balance is the component that mainly accounts for the observed deficit trend in the current account.
8 Exports and Imports of Goods (percent of GDP, seasonally adjusted) (including Tre nd Serie s obtaine d from Hodrick-Pre scott Filte r) XG_Y_SA XG_Y_SA_HP MG_Y_SA MG_Y_SA_HP Exports of goods have varied between 20.2% of GDP in 2009Q4 and 39.0% in 2002Q2, showing a declining trend. Imports of goods have been stubbornly higher, ranging from 34.2% of GDP in 2003Q2 to 57.1% in 2006Q4. The trends have been diverging continuously since 2002Q3, indicating an underlying deterioration in the visible balance which has in turn adversely affected the overall current account balance Econometric Methodology and Findings The Johansen technique is applied to investigate current account sustainability by testing for cointegration among the components of the current account. However the order of integration of the variables, in levels and in first-difference, is first established using the Augmented Dickey Fuller [ADF] (1979) and the Kwiatkowski, Phillips, Schmidt, and Shin [KPSS] (1992) tests. 4 3 The trends in exports and imports of goods and services also diverge since 2002Q3. 4 To save space, detailed results are not presented. However, they shall all be made available upon request.
9 Variable Table 1: Unit Root Tests ADF [Null of Unit Root] KPSS [Null of Stationarity] Statistic Conclusion Statistic Conclusion CURRENT_Y_SA Accept Null 2.59 Reject Null D(CURRENT_Y_SA) Reject Null 0.05 Accept Null X_Y_SA Accept Null 0.35 Reject Null D(X_Y_SA) Reject Null 0.04 Accept Null M_Y_SA Accept Null 0.93 Reject Null D(M_Y_SA) Reject Null 0.07 Accept Null INCTRANS_Y_SA Accept Null 0.74 Reject Null D(INCTRANS_Y_SA) Reject Null 0.02 Accept Null D (1 L) is the first-difference operator Critical values at 5% significance level: ADF in levels form KPSS in levels form 0.15 ADF in first-difference form KPSS in first-difference form 0.46 The above unit root tests show that the overall current account balance is not stationary and therefore does not revolve around a stable mean. Moreover total exports, total imports and income plus transfers are all integrated of order 1 [I(1)]. The Johansen technique is first applied in the context of equation (4) to test for cointegration between total exports and total imports. The trace and maximum eigenvalue tests do not reveal the presence of a cointegration vector at the 5% significance level,
10 neither at the 10% level. 5 However when income plus transfers on a net basis, which are a component of the current account, are added to the vector-error-correction model (VECM), the trace and maximum eigenvalue tests point to a cointegrating vector at the 5% significance level and even at the 1% level: Table 2: Unrestricted Cointegrating Vector Variable X_Y_SA M_Y_SA INCTRANS_Y_SA Constant Coefficient (SE) (0.45) (6.59) A sustainable current account, conceptually, implies a cointegrating vector where the exports coefficient is 1, imports coefficient is -1, net income plus transfers coefficient is 1, and the constant is in the light of the empirical literature at most 5. The theoretical coefficients may be assessed by imposing restrictions on the above estimated cointegrating vector. The imports coefficient of -1.6 is first restricted to -1. The likelihood ratio test produces a chi-square statistic of 0.68 with 1 degree of freedom and a p-value of Therefore this restriction is highly valid at the 5% significance level and the resulting cointegrating vector is: Table 3: Restricted Cointegrating Vector Variable X_Y_SA M_Y_SA INCTRANS_Y_SA Constant Coefficient (SE) (0.87) While the above restricted cointegrating vector denotes an equilibrium relationship between total exports, total imports and net income plus transfers, it is strictly not 5 Based on the AIC and SIC, all corresponding VECMs in this paper contain only the lagged disequilibrium term and no lagged first-differenced variables. Detailed results are available upon request.
11 compatible with current account sustainability as the estimated coefficient for net income plus transfers is far from 1. 6 Intercept (SE) Table 4: Error-Correction Equations D(X_Y_SA) D(M_Y_SA) D(INCTRANS_Y_SA) (0.44) (0.622) (0.240) ε t 1 (SE) (0.044) (0.063) * (0.024) 2 R *: significant at 5% level The error-correction equations imply that net income plus transfers is the only variable which adjusts, at the rate of 13% every quarter, to maintain the estimated long-run equilibrium. Exports and imports as a percentage of GDP, seasonally adjusted, do not adjust and in fact behave like random-walks without drift. The exports and imports shocks are therefore permanent while the shock to net income plus transfers is transitory. The shocks in the present framework are all measured relative to GDP. 6 The coefficient on net income plus transfers was also restricted to 1 but the likelihood-ratio test produced a chi-square statistic of 24.3 with 2 degrees of freedom, implying clear rejection. See Khadaroo (2000) for details on testing restrictions on cointegrating vectors.
12 Exports and Imports of Goods and Services (percent of GDP, seasonally adjusted) (including Trend Series obtained from Hodrick-Pre scott Filte r) X_Y_SA X_Y_SA_HP M_Y_SA M_Y_SA_HP Total exports exhibit a continuously declining trend from 60% of GDP in 1999 to 50% in The trend in total imports at first declines but picks up in 2003 and stabilises around 64% of GDP since These trends indicate that the island has over the last five years been experiencing negative exports shocks and virtually no imports shocks. In the context of the estimated VECM, a negative exports shock leads to a permanently lower exports-to-gdp ratio, an unchanged imports-to-gdp ratio and a higher net income plus transfers-to-gdp ratio. This scenario is not far from reality, as operators of the exports sector have indeed been disinvesting in Mauritius to invest abroad and repatriate their investment income back to Mauritius. An unfavourable exports shock therefore has an everlasting negative impact on the exports potential of the island. Policymakers need to address the widening exports-imports gap urgently otherwise the situation may become unsustainable to the point of triggering a current account reversal. The current Euro crisis complicates the matter further as Mauritian exports are Euro-centric. A supplementary analysis whereby visible and invisible trade are investigated separately is also performed. 7 Invisible exports and imports are cointegrated such that the invisible 7 The detailed findings are not reported here but are available upon request.
13 balance is stationary around an implied surplus mean of 7% of GDP. Moreover both exports and imports of services adjust to maintain the estimated long-run equilibrium. However, visible exports and imports per se are not cointegrated but the inclusion of net income plus transfers produces a cointegrating vector which is maintained through adjustment by the latter variable only. Therefore the crux of the exports-imports gap issue relates to exports and imports of goods. Policy should be geared towards improving the visible trade balance in the near-term. 6. Conclusions and Policy Implications This paper shows that exports and imports of goods and services, as a percentage of GDP, are not cointegrated and therefore do not converge over time. With the inclusion of net income plus transfers, as a percentage of GDP, a cointegrating vector is found among the three variables. However, the estimated vector is, strictly, not compatible with current account sustainability. Moreover, net income plus transfers is the only variable which adjusts to maintain the estimated long-run equilibrium. Total exports and imports, on the other hand, each behave like a random walk. Therefore shocks to exports and imports in the estimated VECM have a permanent effect while a shock to net income plus transfers has a transitory effect. The trend in exports reveals that the Mauritian economy has systematically experienced unfavourable exports shocks over the period under investigation. This period witnessed the phasing out of the Sugar Protocol and the Multi- Fibre Agreement under which the island had preferential access to the EU market respectively for sugar and textile products. The estimated econometric model suggests that these negative exports shocks have an everlasting adverse effect on the exports potential of Mauritius. The Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) certainly mitigates these adverse effects by opening-up the US market to Mauritian exports, but so far this does not seem to be sufficiently strong to counter the unfavourable situation. Attempts by the Mauritian authorities to diversify exports markets and products are undoubtedly commendable but are not likely to be effective in the short-run, similarly for efforts to raise productivity. In light of the glaring worsening imbalance between exports and imports, particularly of goods, and the implication that the current account deficit is not sustainable, this paper is a wake-up call to the authorities in view of a possible current account reversal in Mauritius. A glooming of the near-term outlook for exports, mainly due to the prevailing
14 Euro crisis, coupled with stubbornly high imports may provoke a current account adjustment anytime in the near future. The adjustment may occur sooner given the deceleration observed in inward foreign direct investment in the context of subdued global economic perspectives. 8 Of course, external debt and international reserves cannot be used to finance the current account deficit indefinitely. The authorities should therefore be wary of a possible current account reversal and take the necessary anticipatory measures to ensure that current account adjustment occurs smoothly without adversely affecting macroeconomic indicators and living standards drastically. Research on the determinants of the current account deficit should help uncover variables that are likely to drive the adjustment process potential candidates should include the exchange rate of the rupee and domestic income. 8 FDI into Mauritius reached a peak of Rs. 13.9bn in 2010 and fell to Rs. 9.5bn in 2011.
15 References - Apergis, N., K.P. Katrakilidis, and N.M. Tabakis, Current account deficit sustainability: The case of Greece, Applied Economic Letters, 7: Arize, A., Imports and Exports in 50 Countries: Tests for Cointegration and Structural Break, International Review of Economics and Finance, Vol. 11: Bahmani-Oskooee, M. and Rhee, H.-J.,1997. Are exports and imports of Korea Cointegrated? International Economic Journal, Vol. 11: Bahmani-Oskooee, M.,1994. Are Imports and Exports of Australia Cointegrated? Journal of Empirical Integration, Vol. 9 No. 4: Dickey, D.A., Fuller, W. A., Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root. Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74, Fountas, S., Wu, J-L.,1999. Are The U.S. Current Account Deficits Really Sustainable? International Economic Journal, 13(3), Autumn: Freund, C., Current account adjustment in industrialized countries. International Finance Discussion Paper 692, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. - Herzer, D. and Felcitas, N. L. D., Is there a Long-run Relationship between Exports and Imports in Chile?. Applied Economic Letters, Vol. 13: Holmes, M.J., Are the Trade Deficits of Less Developed Countries Stationary? Evidence from African Countries, Applied Econometrics and International Development, Vol 3-3: Husted S The Emerging U.S. Current Account Deficit in the 1980s: A Cointegration Analysis. The Review of Economics and Statistics, February: Imam, P, Rapid Current Account Adjustments: Are Micro-states different. IMF Working Paper 08/ Irandoust, M and Ericsson, J., Are Imports and Exports Cointegration? An International Comparison. Metroeconomica, Vol. 55(1), pp Johansen, S., Likelihood-Based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford University Press, Oxford. - Khadaroo, A J, Testing Restrictions on Cointegrating Vectors: A Comment, Journal of Macroeconomics, 22(4), Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips,P, C. B., Schmidt, P.,Shin, Y., Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationary against the Alternative of a Unit Root, Journal of Econometrics 54,
16 - Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, and Assaf Razin, Current Account Reversals and Currency Crisis Empirical Regularities. IMF Working Paper No Narayan, P.K. and S. Narayan, Is there a long-run relationship between exports and imports? Evidence from two pacific island countries. Economic Papers, Vol.23, No.2: Narayan, P.K. and S. Narayan, Are exports and imports cointegrated? Evidence from 22 least developed countries. Applied Economic Letters, 12, pp Tang, T.C., Are Exports and Imports of the Five ASEAN Economies Cointegrated? An Empirical Study. International Journal of Management, Vol. 20, No.1: Trehan, B. and Walsh, C., Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to US Federal Budget Deficits and Current Account Deficits. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, May, pp
THE U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT: THE IMPACT OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH
THE U.S. CURRENT ACCOUNT: THE IMPACT OF HOUSEHOLD WEALTH Grant Keener, Sam Houston State University M.H. Tuttle, Sam Houston State University 21 ABSTRACT Household wealth is shown to have a substantial
More informationREASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY OF CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN INDIA
South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics 1 (2012) 67-79 REASSESSMENT OF SUSTAINABILITY OF CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT IN INDIA AVIRAL KUMAR TIWARI * ICFAI University, Tripura Abstract In this study, we examined
More informationAre the US current account deficits really sustainable? National University of Ireland, Galway
Provided by the author(s) and NUI Galway in accordance with publisher policies. Please cite the published version when available. Title Are the US current account deficits really sustainable? Author(s)
More informationRed Signals: Trade Deficits and the Current Account
Red Signals: Trade Deficits and the Current Account marzia raybaudi a,b,martinsola b,c and fabio spagnolo d a Department of Economics, University of Birmingham b Departamento di Economia, Universidad Torcuato
More informationOn Cyclicality in the Current and Financial Accounts: Evidence from Nine Industrial Countries
WP/05/56 On Cyclicality in the Current and Financial Accounts: Evidence from Nine Industrial Countries Jens R. Clausen and Magda Kandil 2005 International Monetary Fund WP/05/56 IMF Working Paper Monetary
More informationRelationship between Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate in Light of Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Australia
Relationship between Commodity Prices and Exchange Rate in Light of Global Financial Crisis: Evidence from Australia Omar K. M. R. Bashar and Sarkar Humayun Kabir Abstract This study seeks to identify
More informationRelative Effectiveness of Foreign Debt and Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Pakistan
Relative Effectiveness of Foreign Debt and Foreign Aid on Economic Growth in Pakistan Abstract Zeshan Arshad Faculty of Management and Sciences, Evening Program, University of Gujrat, Pakistan. Muhammad
More informationCo-movements of NAFTA trade, FDI and stock markets
Co-movements of NAFTA trade, FDI and stock markets Paweł Folfas, Ph. D. Warsaw School of Economics Abstract The paper scrutinizes the causal relationship between performance of American, Canadian and Mexican
More informationHow To Understand The Relationship Between A Country And The Rest Of The World
Lecture 1: current account - measurement and theory What is international finance (as opposed to international trade)? International trade: microeconomic approach (many goods and factors). How cross country
More information1. Introduction. Applied Econometrics and International Development Vol. 14-1 (2014) India.
ON THE ESTIMATION OF THE DETERMINANTS OF THE CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS: A CASE OF INDIAN ECONOMY SESHAIAH, S. Venkata 1 Abstract: The performance in the current account of the balance of payments of India
More informationAn Empirical Analysis of Current Account Determinants in Emerging Asian Economies 1
An Empirical Analysis of Current Account Determinants in Emerging Asian Economies 1 Lucun Yang 2 First Draft: February 2010 Abstract Large and persistent current account surplus in emerging Asia as a whole
More informationFiscal Deficit, Trade Deficit, and Financial Account Deficit: Triple Deficits Hypothesis with the U.S. Experience
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS ISSN 1441-5429 DISCUSSION PAPER 06/14 Fiscal Deficit, Trade Deficit, and Financial Account Deficit: Triple Deficits Hypothesis with the U.S. Experience Tuck Cheong TANG Abstract:
More informationTesting The Quantity Theory of Money in Greece: A Note
ERC Working Paper in Economic 03/10 November 2003 Testing The Quantity Theory of Money in Greece: A Note Erdal Özmen Department of Economics Middle East Technical University Ankara 06531, Turkey ozmen@metu.edu.tr
More informationEmpirical Test of Okun s Law in Nigeria
Empirical Test of Okun s Law in Nigeria by Abiodun S. Bankole, Basiru Oyeniran Fatai Trade Policy Research and Training Programme Department of Economics, University of Ibadan, Ibadan, Nigeria bashal4me@yahoo.com,
More informationCHAPTER 11. AN OVEVIEW OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND QUARTERLY MODEL OF THE (BEQM)
1 CHAPTER 11. AN OVEVIEW OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND QUARTERLY MODEL OF THE (BEQM) This model is the main tool in the suite of models employed by the staff and the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in the construction
More informationThe Relationship between Current Account and Government Budget Balance: The Case of Kuwait
International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Vol. 2 No. 7; April 2012 The Relationship between Current Account and Government Budget Balance: The Case of Kuwait Abstract Ebrahim Merza Economics
More informationCARDIFF BUSINESS SCHOOL WORKING PAPER SERIES
CARDIFF BUSINESS SCHOOL WORKING PAPER SERIES Cardiff Economics Working Papers Lucun Yang An Empirical Analysis of Current Account Determinants in Emerging Asian Economies E2011/10 Cardiff Business School
More informationLarge and persistent external deficits often lead to calls for policy
The Role of Savings and Investment in Balancing the Current Account: Some Empirical Evidence from the United States Giovanni P. Olivei Economist, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Erika M. Dreyer provided
More informationBIS Working Papers No 169. Current account adjustment and capital flows. Monetary and Economic Department. by Guy Debelle* and Gabriele Galati**
BIS Working Papers No 69 Current account adjustment and capital flows by Guy Debelle* and Gabriele Galati** Monetary and Economic Department February 25 * Reserve Bank of Australia ** Bank for International
More informationThe Long-Run Relation Between The Personal Savings Rate And Consumer Sentiment
The Long-Run Relation Between The Personal Savings Rate And Consumer Sentiment Bradley T. Ewing 1 and James E. Payne 2 This study examined the long run relationship between the personal savings rate and
More informationTHE EFFECTS OF BANKING CREDIT ON THE HOUSE PRICE
THE EFFECTS OF BANKING CREDIT ON THE HOUSE PRICE * Adibeh Savari 1, Yaser Borvayeh 2 1 MA Student, Department of Economics, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Khuzestan, Iran 2 MA Student,
More informationFINANCIALISATION AND EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES. Hamid Raza PhD Student, Economics University of Limerick Ireland
FINANCIALISATION AND EXCHANGE RATE DYNAMICS IN SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES Hamid Raza PhD Student, Economics University of Limerick Ireland Financialisation Financialisation as a broad concept refers to: a) an
More informationTEMPORAL CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET CAPITALIZATION, TRADE OPENNESS AND REAL GDP: EVIDENCE FROM THAILAND
I J A B E R, Vol. 13, No. 4, (2015): 1525-1534 TEMPORAL CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN STOCK MARKET CAPITALIZATION, TRADE OPENNESS AND REAL GDP: EVIDENCE FROM THAILAND Komain Jiranyakul * Abstract: This study
More informationMGE#12 The Balance of Payments
MGE#12 The Balance of Payments The Current Account, the Capital Account and the Balance of Payments Introduction to the Foreign Exchange Market Savings, Investment and the Current Account 1 From last session
More informationIS THERE A LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP
7. IS THERE A LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN TAXATION AND GROWTH: THE CASE OF TURKEY Salih Turan KATIRCIOGLU Abstract This paper empirically investigates long-run equilibrium relationship between economic
More informationThe price-volume relationship of the Malaysian Stock Index futures market
The price-volume relationship of the Malaysian Stock Index futures market ABSTRACT Carl B. McGowan, Jr. Norfolk State University Junaina Muhammad University Putra Malaysia The objective of this study is
More informationEXPORT INSTABILITY, INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASIAN COUNTRIES: A TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
ECONOMIC GROWTH CENTER YALE UNIVERSITY P.O. Box 208269 27 Hillhouse Avenue New Haven, Connecticut 06520-8269 CENTER DISCUSSION PAPER NO. 799 EXPORT INSTABILITY, INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN ASIAN
More informationINTERTEMPORAL SOLVENCY AND PUBLIC DEBT: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL 1995-2004
INTERTEMPORAL SOLVENCY AND PUBLIC DEBT: EVIDENCE FROM BRAZIL 1995-2004 Geraldo da Silva e Souza* Tito Belchior S. Moreira** Joaquim Ramalho de Albuquerque*** This article investigates the long-run solvency
More informationTHE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURED EXPORTS
THE IMPACT OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON BRAZILIAN MANUFACTURED EXPORTS ANTONIO AGUIRRE UFMG / Department of Economics CEPE (Centre for Research in International Economics) Rua Curitiba, 832 Belo Horizonte
More informationFDI and Economic Growth Relationship: An Empirical Study on Malaysia
International Business Research April, 2008 FDI and Economic Growth Relationship: An Empirical Study on Malaysia Har Wai Mun Faculty of Accountancy and Management Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman Bander Sungai
More informationDETERMINANT FACTORS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FLOWS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES
DETERMINANT FACTORS OF FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT FLOWS IN CENTRAL AND EASTERN EUROPEAN COUNTRIES Nicoleta Ciurila Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest Faculty of Finance and Banking, Money and Banking
More informationDebt Dynamics and its Burden on National Economy: A Case Study of Pakistan (1970-2005)
Debt Dynamics and its Burden on National Economy: A Case Study of Pakistan (1970-2005) Tahir Mahmood Shahnaz A. Rauf Hafeez ur Rehman Abstract This paper examines the debt dynamics and its burden in Pakistan
More informationAn assessment of the sustainability of current account imbalances in OECD countries
An assessment of the sustainability of current account imbalances in OECD countries Mariam Camarero * Department of Economics Jaume I University Josep Lluís Carrion-i-Silvestre Department of Econometrics,
More informationThe Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Real Exchange Rate on Economic Growth in Malaysia: Some Empirical Evidence
Malaysian Journal of Business and Economics Vol. 1, No. 1, June 2014, 73 85 ISSN 2289-6856 The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Real Exchange Rate on Economic Growth in Malaysia: Rozilee Asid a,
More informationDepartment of Economics
Department of Economics Working Paper Do Stock Market Risk Premium Respond to Consumer Confidence? By Abdur Chowdhury Working Paper 2011 06 College of Business Administration Do Stock Market Risk Premium
More informationThe VAR models discussed so fare are appropriate for modeling I(0) data, like asset returns or growth rates of macroeconomic time series.
Cointegration The VAR models discussed so fare are appropriate for modeling I(0) data, like asset returns or growth rates of macroeconomic time series. Economic theory, however, often implies equilibrium
More informationFormulas for the Current Account Balance
Formulas for the Current Account Balance By Leigh Harkness Abstract This paper uses dynamic models to explain the current account balance in a range of situations. It starts with simple economies with
More informationTHE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON NON-PERFORMING LOANS IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA
Abstract THE IMPACT OF MACROECONOMIC FACTORS ON NON-PERFORMING LOANS IN THE REPUBLIC OF MOLDOVA Dorina CLICHICI 44 Tatiana COLESNICOVA 45 The purpose of this research is to estimate the impact of several
More informationLecture 1: The intertemporal approach to the current account
Lecture 1: The intertemporal approach to the current account Open economy macroeconomics, Fall 2006 Ida Wolden Bache August 22, 2006 Intertemporal trade and the current account What determines when countries
More informationKiel. Policy Brief. The Importance of Investment Income and Transfers in the Current Account: A New Look on Imbalances. Rolf J.
Kiel Policy Brief The Importance of Investment Income and Transfers in the Current Account: A New Look on Imbalances Rolf J. Langhammer No. 48 May 2012 Institut für Weltwirtschaft Kiel Kiel Institute for
More informationDEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS CREDITOR PROTECTION AND BANKING SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN INDIA
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS CREDITOR PROTECTION AND BANKING SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT IN INDIA Simon Deakin, University of Cambridge, UK Panicos Demetriades, University of Leicester, UK Gregory James, University
More informationThe Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account and Currency Crises
Darwin College Research Report DCRR-005 The Intertemporal Approach to the Current Account and Currency Crises Sergejs Saksonovs June 2006 Darwin College Cambridge University United Kingdom CB3 9EU www.dar.cam.ac.uk/dcrr
More informationFinancial Integration of Stock Markets in the Gulf: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF BUSINESS, 8(3), 2003 ISSN:1083-4346 Financial Integration of Stock Markets in the Gulf: A Multivariate Cointegration Analysis Aqil Mohd. Hadi Hassan Department of Economics, College
More informationWorking Papers. Cointegration Based Trading Strategy For Soft Commodities Market. Piotr Arendarski Łukasz Postek. No. 2/2012 (68)
Working Papers No. 2/2012 (68) Piotr Arendarski Łukasz Postek Cointegration Based Trading Strategy For Soft Commodities Market Warsaw 2012 Cointegration Based Trading Strategy For Soft Commodities Market
More informationOn the long run relationship between gold and silver prices A note
Global Finance Journal 12 (2001) 299 303 On the long run relationship between gold and silver prices A note C. Ciner* Northeastern University College of Business Administration, Boston, MA 02115-5000,
More informationFewer net errors and omissions, that is a new format of the balance of payments
Fewer net errors and omissions, that is a new format of the balance of payments The size of net errors and omissions in the balance of payments decreased from 4.4% to 2.3% of GDP. This resulted from data
More informationPROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY
PROJECTION OF THE FISCAL BALANCE AND PUBLIC DEBT (2012 2027) - SUMMARY PUBLIC FINANCE REVIEW February 2013 SUMMARY Key messages The purpose of our analysis is to highlight the risks that fiscal policy
More informationUnit root properties of natural gas spot and futures prices: The relevance of heteroskedasticity in high frequency data
DEPARTMENT OF ECONOMICS ISSN 1441-5429 DISCUSSION PAPER 20/14 Unit root properties of natural gas spot and futures prices: The relevance of heteroskedasticity in high frequency data Vinod Mishra and Russell
More informationANNEX 1 - MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR ITALY OF ACHIEVING COMPLIANCE WITH THE DEBT RULE UNDER TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS
ANNEX 1 - MACROECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS FOR ITALY OF ACHIEVING COMPLIANCE WITH THE DEBT RULE UNDER TWO DIFFERENT SCENARIOS The aim of this note is first to illustrate the impact of a fiscal adjustment aimed
More informationWorking Paper. Current account determinants and external sustainability in periods of structural change
BANK OF GREECE EUROSYSTEM Working Paper Current account determinants and external sustainability in periods of structural change Sophocles N. Brissimis George Hondroyiannis Christos Papazoglou Nicholas
More informationCurrent Accounts in Open Economies Obstfeld and Rogoff, Chapter 2
Current Accounts in Open Economies Obstfeld and Rogoff, Chapter 2 1 Consumption with many periods 1.1 Finite horizon of T Optimization problem maximize U t = u (c t ) + β (c t+1 ) + β 2 u (c t+2 ) +...
More informationThe information content of lagged equity and bond yields
Economics Letters 68 (2000) 179 184 www.elsevier.com/ locate/ econbase The information content of lagged equity and bond yields Richard D.F. Harris *, Rene Sanchez-Valle School of Business and Economics,
More informationANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN, AMERICAN AND JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS
Applied Time Series Analysis ANALYSIS OF EUROPEAN, AMERICAN AND JAPANESE GOVERNMENT BOND YIELDS Stationarity, cointegration, Granger causality Aleksandra Falkowska and Piotr Lewicki TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.
More informationCyclically Adjusted Current Account Balances
Board of Governors of the Federal System International Finance Discussion Papers Number 1126 December 2014 Cyclically Adjusted Current Account Balances Jane Haltmaier Board of Governors of the Federal
More informationLABOR MARKET FLEXIBILITY, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MALAYSIA
LABOR MARKET FLEXIBILITY, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN MALAYSIA NurNaddia Nordin, Norzalina Zainudin, Latifa M. Hameed Department of Economics, Faculty of Management & Muamalah Kolej
More informationWhy the saving rate has been falling in Japan
MPRA Munich Personal RePEc Archive Why the saving rate has been falling in Japan Yoshiaki Azuma and Takeo Nakao January 2009 Online at http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/62581/ MPRA Paper No. 62581, posted
More informationAN AUGMENTED TRADE-WEIGHTED INDEX OF THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR 1
AN AUGMENTED TRADE-WEIGHTED INDEX OF THE AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR 1 Introduction Trade-weighted exchange rate indices provide a guide to a country s exchange rate against the currencies of its trading partners,
More informationExchange Rate Fluctuations and the Balance of Payments: Channels of Interaction in Developing and Developed Countries
Journal of Economic Integration 24(1), March 2009; 151-174 Exchange Rate Fluctuations and the Balance of Payments: Channels of Interaction in Developing and Developed Countries Magda Kandil International
More informationThe effect of Macroeconomic Determinants on the Performance of the Indian Stock Market
The effect of Macroeconomic Determinants on the Performance of the Indian Stock Market 1 Samveg Patel Abstract The study investigates the effect of macroeconomic determinants on the performance of the
More informationEUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA
EUROSYSTEM STAFF MACROECONOMIC PROJECTIONS FOR THE EURO AREA On the basis of the information available up to 22 May 2009, Eurosystem staff have prepared projections for macroeconomic developments in the
More informationForeign Capital Inflows and the Current Account Imbalance: Which Causality Direction?
Journal of Economic Integration 23(2), June 2008; 434-461 Foreign Capital Inflows and the Current Account Imbalance: Which Causality Direction? Ho-don Yan Feng Chia University Cheng-lang Yang Feng Chia
More informationThe Persistence and Determinants of Current Account Balances: The Implications for Global Rebalancing
The Persistence and Determinants of Current Account Balances: The Implications for Global Rebalancing Erica Clower * University of Washington Hiro Ito ** Portland State University December 211 ABSTRACT:
More informationAsian Economic and Financial Review DETERMINANTS OF THE AUD/USD EXCHANGE RATE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS
Asian Economic and Financial Review ISSN(e): 2222-6737/ISSN(p): 2305-2147 journal homepage: http://www.aessweb.com/journals/5002 DETERMINANTS OF THE AUD/USD EXCHANGE RATE AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS Yu Hsing
More informationProject LINK Meeting New York, 20-22 October 2010. Country Report: Australia
Project LINK Meeting New York, - October 1 Country Report: Australia Prepared by Peter Brain: National Institute of Economic and Industry Research, and Duncan Ironmonger: Department of Economics, University
More informationTHE GROUP OF 8 EXTERNAL DEBT CANCELLATION Effects and implications for Guyana
THE GROUP OF 8 EXTERNAL DEBT CANCELLATION Effects and implications for Guyana Introduction Guyana is one of the most indebted emerging market economies in the world. In 2004, its total public external
More informationFINANCIAL DEREGULATION IN SRI LANKA: IMPLICATIONS FOR CAPITAL MOBILITY. Arusha Cooray. Email: acooray@efs.mq.edu.au
FINANCIAL DEREGULATION IN SRI LANKA: IMPLICATIONS FOR CAPITAL MOBILITY Arusha Cooray Email: acooray@efs.mq.edu.au Abstract The purpose of this paper is to examine the degree to which financial deregulation
More informationStock Market Liberalizations: The South Asian Experience
Stock Market Liberalizations: The South Asian Experience Fazal Husain and Abdul Qayyum Pakistan Institute of Development Economics P. O. Box 1091, Islamabad PAKISTAN March 2005 I. Introduction Since 1980s
More informationThe Various Facets of Credit Card Debt
The Various Facets of Credit Card Debt Dr. William Chow 13 May, 2014 Executive Summary This paper looks at consumer borrowings using data of credit card debt and evaluates the various economic implications
More informationPUBLIC DEBT SIZE, COST AND LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY: PORTUGAL VS. EURO AREA PEERS
PUBLIC DEBT SIZE, COST AND LONG-TERM SUSTAINABILITY: PORTUGAL VS. EURO AREA PEERS 1. Introduction This note discusses the strength of government finances in, and its relative position with respect to other
More information5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis
5 Comparison with the Previous Convergence Programme and Sensitivity Analysis 5.1 Comparison with the Previous Macroeconomic Scenario The differences between the macroeconomic scenarios of the current
More informationRelationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Per Capita GDP in Nigeria- An Empirical Analysis (1980-2009)
International Journal of Business, Humanities and Technology Vol. 3 No. 8; December 2013 Relationship between Foreign Direct Investment and Per Capita GDP in Nigeria An Empirical Analysis (19802009) Z.
More informationUnit Labor Costs and the Price Level
Unit Labor Costs and the Price Level Yash P. Mehra A popular theoretical model of the inflation process is the expectationsaugmented Phillips-curve model. According to this model, prices are set as markup
More informationHow budget deficit and current account deficit are interrelated in Indian economy
Theoretical and Applied Economics FFet al Volume XXIII (2016), No. 1(606), Spring, pp. 237-246 How budget deficit and current account deficit are interrelated in Indian economy U.J. BANDAY Jamia Millia
More informationIMPACT OF AGRICULTURE, MANUFACTURING AND SERVICE INDUSTRY ON THE GDP GROWTH OF PAKISTAN
IMPACT OF AGRICULTURE, MANUFACTURING AND SERVICE INDUSTRY ON THE GDP GROWTH OF PAKISTAN ABDUL RAZZAQ NAZISH (Corresponding Author) ABDULLAH IQBAL Dr. MUHAMMAD RAMZAN SUPERIOR UNIVERSITY, Raiwind Road,
More informationStock Returns and Equity Premium Evidence Using Dividend Price Ratios and Dividend Yields in Malaysia
Stock Returns and Equity Premium Evidence Using Dividend Price Ratios and Dividend Yields in Malaysia By David E. Allen 1 and Imbarine Bujang 1 1 School of Accounting, Finance and Economics, Edith Cowan
More informationEnergy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets
Ž. Energy Economics 25 2003 33 37 Energy consumption and GDP: causality relationship in G-7 countries and emerging markets Ugur Soytas a,, Ramazan Sari b a Middle East Technical Uni ersity, Department
More informationExamining the Relationship between ETFS and Their Underlying Assets in Indian Capital Market
2012 2nd International Conference on Computer and Software Modeling (ICCSM 2012) IPCSIT vol. 54 (2012) (2012) IACSIT Press, Singapore DOI: 10.7763/IPCSIT.2012.V54.20 Examining the Relationship between
More informationThe relationship between capital flows and current account: volatility and causality
The relationship between capital flows and current account: volatility and causality Selen Sarisoy Guerin ECARES, Université Libre de Bruxelles Abstract This paper examines the relationship between net
More informationTopic Area: F3, International Finance; E0, General Macroeconomics. Selahattin Diboo_lu Assistant Professor
Accounting for U.S. Current Account Deficits: An Empirical Investigation Topic Area: F3, International Finance; E0, General Macroeconomics Selahattin Diboo_lu Assistant Professor Department of Economics
More informationHow do oil prices affect stock returns in GCC markets? An asymmetric cointegration approach.
How do oil prices affect stock returns in GCC markets? An asymmetric cointegration approach. Mohamed El Hedi AROURI (LEO-Université d Orléans & EDHEC, mohamed.arouri@univ-orleans.fr) Julien FOUQUAU (ESC
More informationFACTORS AFFECTING CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE OF TURKEY: A SURVEY WITH THE COINTEGRATING REGRESSION ANALYSIS
Journal of Business, Economics & Finance ISSN: 2146 7943 Journal of Business, Economics & Finance (2015), Vol.4 (4) Year: 2015 Volume: 4 Issue: 4 FACTORS AFFECTING CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE OF TURKEY: A
More informationCurrent Account Deficits in Sub-Saharan Africa: Do they Matter?
Current Account Deficits in Sub-Saharan Africa: Do they Matter? Patrick Osakwe United Nations Economic Commission for Africa posakwe@uneca.org and Sher Verick United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
More informationExternal Debt Sustainability Analysis 1
14 External Debt Sustainability Analysis 1 Introduction 14.1 The creation of debt is a natural consequence of economic activity. At any time, some economic entities have income in excess of their current
More informationChapter 5: Bivariate Cointegration Analysis
Chapter 5: Bivariate Cointegration Analysis 1 Contents: Lehrstuhl für Department Empirische of Wirtschaftsforschung Empirical Research and und Econometrics Ökonometrie V. Bivariate Cointegration Analysis...
More informationLONG-TERM DISABILITY CLAIMS RATES AND THE CONSUMPTION-TO-WEALTH RATIO
C The Journal of Risk and Insurance, 2009, Vol. 76, No. 1, 109-131 LONG-TERM DISABILITY CLAIMS RATES AND THE CONSUMPTION-TO-WEALTH RATIO H. J. Smoluk ABSTRACT Aframeworkforlinkinglong-termdisability(LTD)claimsratestothemacroeconomy
More informationCOINTEGRATION AND CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP AMONG CRUDE PRICE, DOMESTIC GOLD PRICE AND FINANCIAL VARIABLES- AN EVIDENCE OF BSE AND NSE *
Journal of Contemporary Issues in Business Research ISSN 2305-8277 (Online), 2013, Vol. 2, No. 1, 1-10. Copyright of the Academic Journals JCIBR All rights reserved. COINTEGRATION AND CAUSAL RELATIONSHIP
More informationSection 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations
Section 2 Evaluation of current account balance fluctuations Key points 1. The Japanese economy and IS balance trends From a macroeconomic perspective, the current account balance weighs the Japanese economy
More informationThe Impact of Economic Globalization on Income Distribution: Empirical Evidence in China. Abstract
The Impact of Economic Globalization on Income Distribution: Empirical Evidence in China Xiaofei Tian Hebei University Baotai Wang University of Northern BC Ajit Dayanandan University of Northern BC Abstract
More informationAustralia s position in global and bilateral foreign direct investment
Australia s position in global and bilateral foreign direct investment At the end of 213, Australia was the destination for US$592 billion of global inwards foreign direct investment (FDI), representing
More informationMACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS PROPOSALS TO PROVIDE $500 BILLION IN TAX RELIEF
MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS PROPOSALS TO PROVIDE $500 BILLION IN TAX RELIEF Prepared by the Staff of the JOINT COMMITTEE ON TAXATION March 1, 2005 JCX-4-05 CONTENTS INTRODUCTION... 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY...
More informationNaturally, these difficult external conditions have affected the Mexican economy. I would stress in particular three developments in this regard:
REMARKS BY MR. JAVIER GUZMÁN CALAFELL, DEPUTY GOVERNOR AT THE BANCO DE MÉXICO, ON THE MEXICAN ECONOMY IN AN ADVERSE EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT: CHALLENGES AND POLICY RESPONSE, SANTANDER MEXICO DAY 2016, Mexico
More informationPermanent Link: http://espace.library.curtin.edu.au/r?func=dbin-jump-full&local_base=gen01-era02&object_id=137679
Citation: Salim, Ruhul A. and Bloch, Harry. 2007. Business expenditures on R&D and trade performances in Australia: is there a link? Applied Economics. 41 (3): pp. 351-361. Additional Information: If you
More informationTHE EFFECT OF MONETARY GROWTH VARIABILITY ON THE INDONESIAN CAPITAL MARKET
116 THE EFFECT OF MONETARY GROWTH VARIABILITY ON THE INDONESIAN CAPITAL MARKET D. Agus Harjito, Bany Ariffin Amin Nordin, Ahmad Raflis Che Omar Abstract Over the years studies to ascertain the relationship
More informationInternational Economic Relations
nternational conomic Relations Prof. Murphy Chapter 12 Krugman and Obstfeld 2. quation 2 can be written as CA = (S p ) + (T G). Higher U.S. barriers to imports may have little or no impact upon private
More informationEconomic Commentaries
n Economic Commentaries Sweden has had a substantial surplus on its current account, and thereby also a corresponding financial surplus, for a long time. Nevertheless, Sweden's international wealth has
More informationFISCAL CONSOLIDATION: HOW MUCH IS NEEDED TO REDUCE DEBT TO A PRUDENT LEVEL?
Please cite this paper as: OECD (1), Fiscal Consolidation: How Much is Needed to Reduce Debt to a Prudent Level?, OECD Economics Department Policy Notes, No. 11, April. ECONOMICS DEPARTMENT POLICY NOTE
More informationIs the Basis of the Stock Index Futures Markets Nonlinear?
University of Wollongong Research Online Applied Statistics Education and Research Collaboration (ASEARC) - Conference Papers Faculty of Engineering and Information Sciences 2011 Is the Basis of the Stock
More informationRepublic of Tajikistan: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis
February 2006 Republic of Tajikistan: Joint Bank-Fund Debt Sustainability Analysis Tajikistan s risk of debt distress is moderate. Under the baseline scenario, all the external debt burden indicators are
More informationNon-Stationary Time Series andunitroottests
Econometrics 2 Fall 2005 Non-Stationary Time Series andunitroottests Heino Bohn Nielsen 1of25 Introduction Many economic time series are trending. Important to distinguish between two important cases:
More informationThe Impact of Interest Rate Shocks on the Performance of the Banking Sector
The Impact of Interest Rate Shocks on the Performance of the Banking Sector by Wensheng Peng, Kitty Lai, Frank Leung and Chang Shu of the Research Department A rise in the Hong Kong dollar risk premium,
More information