3 Welcoming Note Dear Participants of the 55th Meeting of EWGCFM, Dear Friends, Ankara ya Hoş Geldiniz! --- Welcome to Ankara! It is a great honor for us to welcome you all at our campus of Middle East Technical University (METU) in Ankara, hospitable Turkey! We are delighted that so many colleagues and friends from all over the world accepted our invitation to take part at the 55th Meeting of EURO Working Group Commodities and Financial Modelling. We wish to express our sincere gratitude and honor for your acceptance of our invitation! EWGCFM 2015 is organized by Institute of Applied Mathematics (IAM) of METU, EURO Working Group Commodities and Financial Modelling (EWGCFM) and The Association of European Operational Research Societies (EURO). EWGCFM 2015 is an element of the conference series by EURO working group EWGCFM which has a long and rich tradition. By invited Plenary lectures of renowned experts and by a rich variety of Contributed presentations, EWGCFM 2015 will display recent advances in modelling and problem solving in modern markets of commodities and finance, through advances in theory, methods and practice, by applications of mathematics and statistics, economics and management sciences, engineering and environmental sciences, supported by modern Operational Research. We are delighted that our Institute of Applied Mathematics of METU, our thirteen years old Centre of Excellence, was chosen by EWGCFM as its partner to conduct the conference here in Turkey! We are very thankful to EWGCFM and to EURO. For all their precious support, our special thank goes to Prof. Dr. Rita Laura D Ecclesia (Chair of EWGCFM) and all the members of the Program Committees, to Prof. Dr. Bülent Karasözen (Director of IAM of METU), to our Research Assistants Sinem Kozpınar, Özge Tekin and Bilgi Yılmaz, to all the valuable Sponsors, Central Bank of Turkey and EURO and to ATAK Travel. Without these partners our conference would not have become possible. We hope that all of you will enjoy our conference, and we wish our participants a very pleasant stay in Ankara. Now, we look forward to exciting and unforgettable days of scientific exchange, of preparing future collaborations and of friendship, and we warmly welcome you again! Yours sincerely, Sevtap Selçuk-Kestel, Yeliz Yolcu Okur, Gerhard-Wilhelm Weber Organizing Committee, Co-Chairs, EWGCFM 2015 Institute of Applied Mathematics,
4 Invited Speakers Vedat Akgiray, Boğaziçi University, TR Vedat Akgiray is currently a Professor of Finance at Bogazici University in Istanbul, Turkey. He is also the Director of the Center for Research in Financial Regulation and Corporate Governance (CCG) at the same university. He is a member of the Advisory Board of the Millstein Center at Columbia University in New York. He received B.A. in Management from Bogazici University in 1980, M.B.A. from the School of Management in 1982, M.A. in Economics from the Maxwell School in 1985, and Ph.D. in Finance in 1985, all at Syracuse University in New York. Between 1985 and 1990, he taught at various universities in the U.S.A. and was promoted to Associate Professor at the Clarkson Institute of Technology in He carried out several research and consulting projects for the Bank of Canada and various financial institutions in New York. During the period , he served as a professor of finance at Bogazici University, where he designed and directed the doctoral program in finance from 1992 to 2009, was promoted to Professor in 2000, co founded the M.S. Program in Financial Engineering in 2002 and also held various administrative positions. During his academic career, he has advised more than seventy graduate students, published and presented more than one hundred academic papers. In March 2009, he was sworn in as the Chairman of the Capital Markets Board of Turkey, where he served until December He was the leader of the team designing and writing the new Capital Markets Law, which was enacted in Between 2010 and the end of his tenure at the CMB, he also served as the Chairman of the Emerging Markets Committee of IOSCO, vice Chairman of the IOSCO Board, member of the Financial Stability Board of G20, member of the Monitoring Board of the IFRS Foundation, member of the IIRC, and member of the IOSCO Expert Group on Financial Benchmarks. In these positions, he actively participated in work streams on re designing the international regulatory architecture in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of In addition to his life time interest in mathematical finance, his current priority in research is in financial regulation and corporate governance as an integral part of good regulation. This includes building models of the relation between corporate governance and informational efficiency of financial markets, aiming to demonstrate the critical contribution of economic value based corporate governance to the sustainable growth of capital markets and hence to economic development globally. Constantinos Kardaras, London School of Economics, UK Constantinos Kardaras is currently a Professor (Chair in Statistics) at London School of Economics, UK. He had his B.Sc. in Mathematics at the University of Athens, Greece. He continued his studies at the Business University of Athens, Greece in Business Mathematics. Then, he had his Ph.D. studies entitled with The Numeraire Portfolio and Arbitrage in Semimartingale Models of Financial Markets at Colombia University, USA at the Department of Statistics. His research is focused on the field of Stochastic Analysis and, in particular, on its applications in Financial Mathematics. He is an associate editor for the journal Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry. He has been refereeing in many journals such as Annals of Probability, Annals of Applied Probability, Finance & Stochastics, Mathematical Finance, Journal of the American Statistical Association, Economic Theory, Annals of Finance, Decisions in Economics and Finance, Quantitative Finance, Management Science, SIAM Journal of Financial Mathematics, Journal of
5 Mathematical Analysis and Applications, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Applied Mathematical Finance, Stochastics, Stochastic Processes and Applications, Journal of Risk, Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance. Moreover, he has published more than 30 papers on arbitrage theory, utility maximization problems, and exchange options at different well known journals. Rüdiger Kiesel, University of Duisburg-Essen, DE Rüdiger Kiesel heads the chair for Energy Trading and Financial Services at the University Duisburg-Essen. He is also a Visiting Professor at the Center for Mathematics for Applications, Oslo University. His main research areas are risk management for power utility companies, modeling of electricity markets, valuation and hedging of derivatives (interest-rate, credit- and energy-related), methods of risk transfer and structuring of risk (securitization). Stan Uryasev, University of Florida, USA Professor Stan Uryasev is director of the Risk Management and Financial Engineering Lab and director of the PhD Program with Concentration in Quantitative Finance at the University of Florida. His research is focused on efficient computer modeling and optimization techniques and their applications in finance and military projects. He published three books (monograph and two edited volumes) and about eighty research papers. He is a co-inventor of the Conditional Value-at-Risk and the Conditional Drawdown-at-Risk optimization methodologies. He is the founder of American Optimal Decisions (AORDA.com) developing optimization software in risk management area: VaR, CVaR, Default Probability, Drawdown, Credit Risk minimization. Stan Uryasev is a frequent speaker at academic and professional conferences. He has delivered seminars on the topics of risk management and stochastic optimization. He is on the editorial board of a number of research journals and is Editor Emeritus and Chairman of the Editorial Board of the Journal of Risk.
6 Scientific Committee Ceren Vardar Acar Derviş Bayazıt Mine Çağlar Umut Çetin Rita D'Ecclesia Savaş Dayanık Işıl Erol Roland Fuess Nuray Güner Azize Hayfavi Timur Hülagu Ömer L. Gebizlioğlu Ralf Korn Coşkun Küçüközmen Murat Mazıbaş Uğur Soytaş Doğan Tırtıroğlu Ömür Uğur Tim Wagner Kasırga Yıldırak TOBB Univeristy, Turkey Federal Home Loan Bank of Atlanta, USA Koc University, Turkey London School of Economics, United Kingdom Sapienza Universita Di Roma, Italy Bilkent University, Turkey Özyeğin University, Turkey St. Gallen University, Switzerland, Turkey, Turkey Central Bank of Republic of Turkey Kadir Has University, Turkey Technical University Kaiserslautern, Germany İzmir Economy University, Turkey Borsa Istanbul, Turkey, Turkey Kadir Has University, Turkey, Turkey KPMG, United Kingdom Hacettepe University, Turkey
7 The Venue The conference will take place in the Culture and Convention Center (Coordinates: N and E) located on METU campus. METU Cultural and Convention Center (CCC) provides a system where a meeting, a seminar or a congress will be an experience in a campus far from the tumult of the city, in a natural environment offering many social and sport facilities, in a center containing all state of the art facilities with striking architecture and superior infrastructure, including units for auxiliary services and minimizing per capita expenditures. The center consists of nine halls, two foyers, onerestaurant and support units. Wi-fi access for delegates will be given at registration desk. Conference Dinner and Social Program Welcome reception Lunches Conference Dinner City Tour UME Building METU Cafeteria Uludağ Kebap, Çayyolu Old Town The welcome reception will take place at the Institute of Applied Mathematics building at 18:00. The lunch will take place in the METU cafeteria. For full registered participants lunch tickets will be given The busses to the Conference Dinner will depart from the main entrance of the Culture and Convention Center at 18:00 The busses will depart from the main entrance of CCC to the old town at 13:30.
8 The Program Thursday (May 14, 2015 ) 09:00-09:25 Opening Session (Room A) Chair: S. Kestel 09:30-10:15 Stan Uryasev (Room A) Chair: G.W. Weber (Invited Speaker) Room A Room B 10:20-11:05 Energy Markets / Electricity Markets 1 Chair: R.L. D'Ecclesia Roland Füss Electricity Spot and Derivatives Pricing when Markets are Interconnected Rita Laura D'Ecclesia Energy Commodities Prices: New Challenges for Risk Managers 11:05-11:30 Coffee Break 11:30-12:40 Actuarial Sciences / Actuarial Sciences Chair: A. Kabasinskas Aslıhan Şentürk Acar Marginal Models: An Application to Insurance Data Bükre Yıldırım The Effect of Turkish Mortality Improvements on the Cost of Annuities using Entropy Measure Audrius Kabasinskas Two-Stage Stochastic Programming Problem for Modelling of Accrual in Pillar II from Lithuanian Pension System Emerging Applications / Finance 1 Chair: C. Kardaras Tim Wagner Valuing Optionality when Discounting Derivative Cashflows Barış Sürücü Estimating Hazard Rate for Censored Structures Emerging Applications / Finance & Economics Chair: Y. Yolcu Okur Burcu Aydoğan Methods of Pricing American Options: Case Study for Comparison Malika Babes Resolving the Portfolio Problem as a Knapsack Problem Özgür Özel Modelling Interest Rates Moving in a Band 12:45-14:00 Lunch (Cafeteria) 14:00-14:45 Vedat Akgiray (Room A) Chair: A. D. Sezer (Invited Speaker) 14:45-15:15 Coffee Break
9 15:15-17:15 Emerging Applications / Finance & Data Mining Chair: G. Marinakos Berk Orbay A Model Selection Method for Option Pricing Ayhan Yüksel Particle MCMC for a Time Changed Levy Process Abdulwahab Animoku Uncertainty Quantification and Implementation of Local Volatility Surfaces in Bayesian Framework Emrah Ahi Robust Optimization Framework for Term Structure Estimation: Emerging vs Developed Markets Georgios Marinakos Financial Risk Prediction from Imbalanced Datasets Using Logistic Regression Emerging Applications / Stock Market 1 Chair: S. Uryasev Cumhur Ekinci Market Dynamics of Borsa Istanbul Stocks around US Macroeconomic News Releases Burze Yaşar Determinants of Implied Volatility Slope of S&P 500 Options Zeynep Çobandağ A Comparison of Effective Bid-Ask Spread Proxies: Evidence from Borsa Istanbul Futures Miraç Parlatan A Decision Tool for Short-Term Portfolio Building with Foreign Currencies Sinem Kozpınar Sarı Pricing Stochastic Barrier Options in Presence of Jump 18:00-20:30 Welcome Reception (IAM Building, METU) Friday (May 15, 2015) 9:15-10:00 Room A Emerging Applications / Stock Market 2 Chair: S.Danışoğlu Edward Sun Optimal High-Frequency Trading with Financial Transaction Tax Room B Stochastic Calculus / Control Theory Chair: V. Akgiray Gerhard Wilhelm Weber Optimal Control of Stochastic Hybrid Models in the Framework of Regime Switches in Finance and Economics Seza Danışoğlu Effectiveness of Price Limits in Controlling Daily Stock Price Volatility Ali Devin Sezer Analysis of Push-type Epidemiz Data Dissemination in Fully Connected Networks 10:05-10:50 Rüdiger Kiesel Chair: S. Kestel (Invited Speaker) 10:50-11:15 Coffee Break
10 Stochastic Programming / Portfolio Optimization Chair: M. Pınar Commodity Markets / Commodity Markets Chair: O. Ross 11:15-12:45 İsmail Başoğlu Efficient Simulations for a Bernoulli Mixture Model of Portfolio Credit Risk Nalan Gülpınar Robust Approaches to Asset Liability Management under Uncertainity Tomáš Tichý Portfolio Selection in the Fixed-Income Market Niclas Brok Non-Parametric Portfolio Optimization and Commodity Prices Koray Şimşek Optimal Procurement with Takeor-Pay Contracts in the Presence of Storage Sercan Demiralay Do Commodities Really Provide Diversification Benefits? Mustafa Pınar The Robust Merton Problem of an Ambiguity Averse Investor 12:45-14:00 Lunch Omri Ross Fixing the Gold Price 14:00-14:45 Constantinos Kardaras (Room A) Chair: Ö. Uğur (Invited Speaker) 14:45-15:15 Coffee Break Emerging Applications / Finance 2 Chair: M. Kallio Asmerilda Hitaj Multivariate Mixed Tempered Stable for Asset Allocation Energy Markets / Electricity Market 2 Chair: R. Kiesel Erkan Kalaycı Effective Risk Measures and Derivatives Pricing in Illiquid Electricity Markets with Random Events 15:15-16:45 Ahmet Göncü Statistical Arbitrage: A Factor Model Approach Erdinç Akyıldırım Existence of Statistical Arbitrage Portfolios in the Black-Scholes Framework Markku Kallio Currency Hedging for a Multi-National Firm Miray Hanım Yıldırım Wavelet Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines and Their Application to the UK Electricity Market Sezer Çabuk Hydro Inflow Forecasting and Virtual Power Plant Pricing in Turkish Electricity Market Ezgi Avcı Sürücü Bidding Structure, Market Efficiency and Persistence in Electricity Tariff Zones 16:45-17:00 Coffee Break
11 17:00-17:45 Emerging Applications / Data Mining Chair: N. Gülpınar Deniz Kenan Kılıç Wavelet Analysis of Financial Time Series Ece Köksal Exchange Rates Forecasting with a New Combined Machine Learning and Statistical Learning Method Stochastic Calculus / Finance 1 Chair: L. Mercuri Armağan Özbilge Comparison of Momentum and Mean Reversion Effects in Distinct Markets Lorenzo Mercuri Option Pricing in an Exponential Mixed TS Process 19:00 Gala Dinner Saturday (May 16, 2015) Room A Commodity & Financial Markets / Risk Management Chair: Y. Merzifonluoğlu Uzgören Ertuğrul Bayraktar Sensitivity Analysis for the Markowitz Model Room B Stochastic Calculus / Finance 2 Chair: M. Kharrat Bilgi Yılmaz Computation of Malliavin Greeks in Hybrid Stochastic Volatility Models 09:00-10:30 Güray Kara A Risk Assessment and Measurement Approach on the Procurement Analysis of Copper Markets Yasemin Merzifonluoğlu Uzgören Risk Averse Supply Portfolio Selection with Supply, Demand and Spot Market Volatility David Stack A Stepwise Framework to Assess CTRM (Commodity Trading and Risk Management) Opportunities - Specifically LNG - in Turkey s Gas Hub through :30-11:00 Coffee Break Alper İnkaya Investigation of the Cost and Probability of Hedging via the Malliavin Calculus Hacer Öz Optimal Control Problems of Stochastic Heat Equation with Runge-Kutta Schemes Mohamed Kharrat A General Expression of the Price of an American Options Using Malliavin Derivative
12 Econometric Models / Finance & Economics Chair: R. Füss Stefanie Flotho Monetary and Fiscal Policy in a Monetary Union under the Zero Lower Bound Constraint Energy Markets / Electricity Market 3 Chair: T. Tichy Ethem Çanakoğlu Risk Management Applications in Electricity Markets :30 Serap Ergun A Game Theoretical Approach to Crypto Cloud Computing and Its Economical and Financial Aspects Meral Şimşek Surplus Process with Perturbations of a Brownian Motion in an Insurance Porfolio Martín Dâvila Corporate Governance and Financial Crises in Mexico Caner Fuad Yazıcı Flexibility Modelling of Natural Gas Contracts Sipan Aslan Temporal Clustering of Commodities via Threshold Autoregressive Models Silvana Stefani Risk Premia on Electricity Markets 12:35-12:45 Closing Session (Room A) Chair: Y. Yolcu Okur 13:00-17:30 Ankara City Tour POSTER Foyer Amel Laouar Coupled Reserve Processes: Simulation and Analysis of Parametric Dependence
13 Welcome Reception: 15 May 2015, 18:00 All participants are welcome to the opening reception which will take place at the main entrance of the Institute of Applied Mathematics Building, METU Campus. The building also hosts Faculty of Arts and Sciences and is five minutes walking distance to the Convention Center. Conference Dinner: 15 May 2015, 19:00 Invitation ticket is required! The full registration fee (Participants 300 Euro Students 160 Euro)the conference dinner at Uludağ Kebap, Çayyolu (http://www.uludagkebap.com. tr/en/branches/cayyolu). Local participants are required to sign in at the registration desk and pay the dinner fee. The busses depart from the main entrance of CCC at 18:00.
14 City Tour: 16 May 2015, 13:00-17:30 Sign in at Registration Desk is required! The full registration fee includes the half day trip to the old town in Ankara. The historical Ankara Castle, Çengel Han Museum and Anatolian Civilization Museum are the highlights in the old town offering a nice and flair souvenir shops. Anatolian Museum entrance fee is 30 TL (around 10 Euro). One should allocate around 2 hours to see the exhibition at the museum. The busses depart from the main entrance of CCC at 13:00.
15 Conference Participants Emrah AHİ Vedat AKGİRAY Erdinç AKYILDIRIM Ümit AKSOY Abdulwahab ANIMOKU Sipan ASLAN Ezgi AVCI SÜRÜCÜ Burcu AYDOĞAN Malika BABES İsmail BAŞOĞLU Ertuğrul BAYRAKTAR Niclas BROK Nick CLAUSEN Sezer ÇABUK Mine ÇAĞLAR Ethem ÇANAKOĞLU Zeynep ÇOBANDAĞ Seza DANIŞOĞLU Martin DAVILLA Rita Laura D'ECCLESİA Sercan DEMİRALAY Cumhur EKİNCİ Serap ERGÜN Ahmet GÖNCÜ Nuray GÜNER Nalan GÜLPINAR Stefanie FLOTHO Roland FUSS Miray Hanım YILDIRIM Azize HAYFAVİ Asmerilda HITAJ Bülent Alper İNKAYA Cem İYİGÜN Audrius KABASINSKAS Erkan KALAYCI Markku KALLIO Özyeğin University Bogaziçi University Akdeniz University Atılım University T.R. Ministry of Energy University of Annaba İstanbul Kemerburgaz University İstanbul Technical University Technical University of Denmark Technical University of Denmark Enerji SA Koç University Bahçeşehir University İstanbul Technical University Universidad Popular Autónoma del Estado de Puebla Sapienza University of Rome Yeditepe University İstanbul Technical University Süleyman Demirel University Xian Jiatong Liverpool University The Warwick University Albert Ludwigs University Freiburg St. Gallen University Çankaya University Universita Milano Bicocca Enerji SA Kaunas University of Technology Enerji SA Aalto University, School of Business
16 Conference Participants Güray KARA Constantinos KARDARAS Deniz Kenan KILIÇ Mohammed KHARRAT Rüdiger KIESEL Sinem KOZPINAR SARI Ece KÖKSAL Amel LAOUAR Georgios MARINAKOS Lorenzo MERCURI Yasemin MERZİFONLUOĞLU UZGÖREN Berk ORBAY Miraç PARLATAN Mustafa PINAR Edit RROJI Omri ROSS Hacer ÖZ Armağan ÖZBİLGE Özgür ÖZEL Omid SAFARZADEH Ali Devin SEZER Edward SUN Barış SÜRÜCÜ David STACK Silvana STEFANI Aslıhan ŞENTÜRK ACAR Koray Deniz ŞİMŞEK Meral ŞİMŞEK Özge TEKİN Tomas TICHY Doğan TIRTIROĞLU Ömür UĞUR Stan URYASEV Tim WAGNER Gerhard Wilhelm WEBER London School of Economics FS fax Tunisia Duisburg-Essen University University of Science and Technology Houari Boumedine University of Patras University of Milan, Northern Cyprus Boğaziçi University Bilkent University University Milano Bicocca Technical University Denmark Central Bank of Turkey Izmir Economics University E & F, KEDGE Business School France ESCP Europe University Milano Bicocca Hacettepe University Sabancı University VSB- Technical University Ostrava Kadir Has University University of Florida KPMG
17 Burze YAŞAR Caner Fuad YAZICI Bükre YILDIRIM Bilgi YILMAZ Yeliz YOLCU OKUR Ayhan YÜKSEL TED University
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