Q Conference Call - Q3 financial results - Dividend declaration - Near term growth outlook - New Royalty Acquisitions

Transcription

1 Q Conference Call - Q3 financial results - Dividend declaration - Near term growth outlook - New Royalty Acquisitions November 10, 2009 David Harquail - CEO Alex Morrison - CFO

2 Cautionary Statement Forward-Looking Statements This Presentation contains "forward-looking statements", which may include but are not limited to, statements with respect to future events or future performance, management's expectations regarding Franco-Nevada s growth, results of operations, estimated future revenues, costs and timing of acquiring new royalties, equity and other resource related interests, requirements for additional capital, mineral reserve and resources estimates, production costs and revenue, future demand for and prices of commodities, expected mining sequences, business prospects and opportunities. All statements, other than statements of historical fact, are forward-looking statements. The words "expects", expected, estimated and similar expressions identify forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements contained in this Presentation are based upon assumptions management believes to be reasonable, including, without limitation, the ongoing operation of the properties by the owners or operators of such properties in a manner consistent with past practice, the accuracy of public statements and disclosures made by the owners or operators of such underlying properties, no material adverse change in the market price of the commodities, and any other factors that cause actions, events or results to differ from those anticipated, estimated or intended. However, there can be no assurance that forward-looking statements will prove to be accurate, as actual results and future events could differ materially from those anticipated in such statements. Franco-Nevada cannot assure investors that actual results will be consistent with these forward-looking statements and readers are cautioned that forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance. Accordingly, readers should not place undue reliance on forwardlooking statements due to the inherent uncertainty therein. These risks, uncertainties and other factors include, but are not limited to: fluctuations in the prices of the primary commodities that drive the Company s royalty revenue (gold, platinum group metals, copper, nickel, oil and gas); fluctuations in the value of the Canadian and Australian dollar, and any other currency in which the Company generates revenue, relative to the U.S. dollar; changes in national and local government legislation, including taxation policies; regulations and political or economic developments in any of the countries where the company holds interests in mineral or oil and gas properties; influence of macroeconomic developments; business opportunities that become available to, or are pursued by us; access to debt and equity capital; litigation; title disputes related to our interests or any of the underlying properties; operating or technical difficulties; risks and hazards associated with the business of development and mining, including, but not limited to unusual or unexpected operating difficulties, financial stress and other natural disasters or civil unrest. For additional information with respect to risks, uncertainties and assumptions, please also refer to the Risk Factors section of our most recent Annual Information Form filed with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities on as well as our Annual and interim MD&A. The forward-looking statements herein are made as of the date of this Presentation only and Franco-Nevada does not assume any obligation to update or revise them to reflect new information, estimates or opinions, future events or results or otherwise, except as required by applicable law. Non-GAAP Measures Royalty Revenue, Free Cash-Flow, EBITDA and Adjusted Net Income are intended to provide additional information only and do not have any standardized meaning prescribed by GAAP and should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for measures of performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. These measures are not necessarily indicative of operating profit or cash flow from operations as determined under GAAP. Other companies may calculate these measures differently. 2

3 Q3/2009 Highlights US$ 000 s except per share and % s Q Q Q Royalty Revenue (1) $ 36,409 $ 32,887 $ 39,937 Gold Royalty Revenue 25,500 23,629 19,971 Total revenue (3) 41,090 45,079 40,023 Net income 12,343 25,089 9,893 Basic earnings per share $ 0.11 $ 0.25 $ 0.10 Free Cash Flow (2) $ 32,479 $ 27,919 $ 35,352 Free Cash Flow (2) per share $ 0.29 $ 0.27 $ 0.35 Free Cash Flow (2) as a % of Royalty Revenue (1) 89% 85% 89% Record Gold Revenues & Gold Cash Flow (1) Royalty Revenue is defined by the Company as cash received or receivable from operating royalty assets earned during the period. (2) Free Cash Flow is defined by the Company as operating income plus depletion and depreciation, non-cash charges, and any impairment of investments and royalty interests (3) Includes fair value gains on derivative assets. 3

4 Key Themes $40.0 Royalty Revenue (1) By Quarter $40.0 Free Cash Flow (2) By Quarter Millions $35.0 $30.0 $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $0.0 Gold Other Millions $35.0 $30.0 $25.0 $20.0 $15.0 $10.0 $5.0 $0.0 $29.2 Free Cash Flow (2) $24.9 Royalty Revenue (1) $27.9 $32.9 $32.5 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 Q1/09 Q2/09 Q3/09 85% 85% Growing gold revenues with margins now at 89% 89% $36.4 (1) Royalty Revenue is defined by the Company as cash received or receivable from operating royalty assets earned during the period. (2) Free Cash Flow is defined by the Company as operating income plus depletion and depreciation, non-cash charges, and any impairment of investments and royalty interests 4

5 Royalty Revenue Growing gold and precious metals contribution ($ millions) Oil & Gas Base Metals & Other PGM Gold % 55% 55% 56% 77% 80% 77% gold & PGMs as % of total Royalty Revenue 5 0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Gold revenues have doubled since the IPO Chart reflects Royalty Revenue, defined by the Company as cash received or receivable from operating royalty assets earned during the period. 5

6 Royalty Revenue (1) Q2/09 to Q3/09 (000 s) 32,887 4,994 1, ,191 3,050 2,114 36,409 (1) Royalty Revenue is defined by the Company as cash received or receivable from operating royalty assets earned during the period. 6

7 Net Income Q2/09 to Q3/09 (000 s) 2,786 2,432 1,654 1,700 3,096 3,251 3,126 25,089 12,343 18,347 7

8 Dividend Declaration Declared a C$0.14 per share semi-annual dividend payable on December 18, 2009 to shareholders of record on December 4, % higher in C$ terms than December, 2008 dividend - ~33% higher in US$ terms than December,2008 dividend - annualized dividend payout of US$30m at current exchange rates Franco-Nevada is among the top yielding gold investments 8

9 Near-term Growth Current producers New in Near term Longer term Goldstrike Palmarejo* Gold Quarry* Stillwater Marigold Robinson Oil & gas others Holloway-Hislop Hollister Hemlo NSR Tasiast Holt Ity others... Detour Hemlo NPI Falcondo nickel Pandora platinum Rosemont Duketon Goldfields Perama Hill others Pinson Arturo Kirkland Lake Arctic Gas >145 other exploration assets >100,000 acres of undeveloped O&G land >20 MINERAL OPERATIONS >100 O&G OPERATIONS ROYALTIES UNDER DEVELOPMENT OR REACHING PAYOUT PROJECTS AT FEASIBILITY, PERMITTING, FINANCING STAGES OR ON STANDBY BROAD EXPOSURE TO FUTURE POTENTIAL UPSIDES AT NO COST Assets in place for continued gold revenue growth * new acquisitions starting in

10 Gold Royalty Growth - Near Term Project Operator Royalty Annual Incremental Royalty $1,000 gold Palmarejo Coeur d Alene 50% stream $15-19m Holloway Hislop St Andrew Gold 4-5% NSR 3-4m Hollister Great Basin Gold 3-5% NSR 3-5m Hemlo NSR Barrick Gold 3% NSR 1-2m $22-30m Tasiast Red Back Mining 2% NSR $6-8m Holt St Andrew Gold 10% NSR 3-4m Ity La Mancha 1-1.5% NSR 1m $10-13m Hemlo NPI Barrick Gold 50% NPI $5-12m Detour Detour Gold 2% NSR 10-12m Rosemont Augusta Resources 1.5% NSR 1-2m Duketon Regis Resources 2% NSR 2-3m Goldfields Linear Gold 2% NSR 1-2m Perama Hill Eldorado Gold 2% NSR 2-3m $20-33m Management projection of start of royalty. Applicable royalty rate at $1,000 gold for sliding scale royalties Reflects operator public guidance as of September 2009 Reflects management s projections based on available data 2009 was a half year of production is increment for full year Gold only. With copper & silver, royalty potential is $7-9mm 10

11 Gold Royalty Growth - Near Term Existing Gold-Only Royalty Revenue $71m $100m New Incremental Gold- Only Royalty Revenue (2) $52-76m Not Shown Any contribution from >130 other longer term gold royalties PGM revenues $22-30m $32-43m Co-product base metal revenues 20 0 Near term gold growth is in place and paid for (1) 2009 pro-forma assumes Q4 same as Q3 with true-up for Gold Quarry. (2) Slide 9 provides details to pro-forma incremental estimates 11

12 Added Commodity Opportunity 30 Not Shown 25 >20 non-producing other royalties ($ millions) Potential Stand-by assets such as Falcondo Undeveloped O&G properties Arctic Gas 10 Oil & Gas 5 Base Metals & Other PGM 0 Q Q Q Q Q Q Q Potential for $40 to $80 million in annual non-gold revenues with recovering commodity prices 12

13 Added Growth Potential Capital September 30, 2009 US$ Millions Working Capital $559 Marketable securities $59 Available Credit Facility $150 Total Available Capital $768 No debt or hedges and limited capital obligations Future acquisitions prefunded for further growth 13

14 New Royalties Ahafo South, Ghana $58 million acquisition of Ahafo South Royalty Mill complex Source: Newmont November, 2009 presentation Royalty Details 2% NSR royalty on a portion of Newmont s Ahafo South Mine in Ghana Source: Moydow royalty applies after 1.2 million ounces of production 850,000 ounces have been produced from the royalty property since 2006 Covers ~78 km 2 and all or portions of 3 of the 4 pits at Ahafo South 14

15 New Royalties Ahafo, Ghana Ahafo South Mine reserves of 6.1 million ounces at Ahafo South as at Dec 31, 2008 over 50% of production to date has come from the royalty property 520,800 ounces of gold sold in 2008 at a cost of $408/oz Newmont guidance for 2009 is koz Subika expansion opportunity to expand resources at Subika by 4-7 million ounces (most if not all on royalty property) new pit layback and underground development under consideration mineralization is open in three dimensions opportunity to deliver higher grade ore to the Ahafo mill Source: Newmont November, 09 presentation 15

16 New Royalties - Mt Keith, Australia AUD$20 million acquisition of Mt Keith & Kingston Royalties Royalty Details 0.375% gross royalty on all nickel produced from +200km 2 of highly prospective greenstone in W. Australia Royalties cover BHP s producing Mt Keith nickel mine Mt Keith Mine Australia s largest nickel mine with more than 14 years of mine life remaining Reserves of 164 Mt at 0.57% Ni at the end of 2008 BHP expects production of ktpa of Ni In Sept BHP announced approval for a US$152M talc redesign project with potential to increase recovery and add to resources Source: Metals X Limited website Source: BHP Billiton 16

17 Franco-Nevada Attributes Leading gold royalty company Highest margins in business Generates free cash flow in all likely scenarios Strongest asset base in U.S. and Canada Growing and increasingly diversified gold revenue Capital available for additional growth >$600m in cash & marketable investments $150m undrawn credit facility No material capital requirements or overheads Share price catalysts Effective capital investments Continued growing gold revenues Re-rating to historic share valuations Increasing leverage to gold (10% increase in gold price = 14% increase in gold revenue) 17

18 Appendix: Adjusted Net Income 3 Months Ended September 30 9 Months Ended September 30 US$ 000 s except per share and % s Net income $ 12,343 $ 9,893 $ 41,229 $ 24,970 Impairment of royalty assets, net of income tax Foreign exchange loss (gain), net of income tax (15,708) (773) Other income, net of income tax (1,708) - (1,708) - Gain on sale of investment, net of income tax (380) - (380) - Change in fair value of royalties accounted for as derivative assets, net of income tax (3,220) - (14,483) - Adjusted Net Income $ 7,342 $ 9,959 $ 9,156 $ 24,197 Adjusted Net Income per share $ 0.07 $ 0.10 $ 0.09 $