The President Can Worry About Syria

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Agnes Richard
8 years ago
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1 Page 1 of 5 The President Can Worry About Syria September 2013 Market The Syrian Civil War and whether or not the U.S. is going to become involved has been a major headline for weeks now. On the off chance people are tired of reading about that, we are going to cover completely different topics and not discuss Syria at all! Of more immediate investment importance is the steep bond sell off that has occurred, how rising borrowing rates may affect the real estate market, and whether or not stocks are getting expensive. Before we dive in I want to suggest that the best way to read this newsletter is in sections. Each topic begins with a section title, in bold. We do this so that readers can select the section(s) they are most interested in and avoid feeling overwhelmed by the information provided. How Quickly Falling Bond Prices and Rising Interest Rates Are Creating an Opportunity According to the U.S. Department of the Treasury, the 10 year treasury bond yield bottomed on 6/1/2012 at 1.47% and as of 9/10/2013 the rate on these treasuries had risen to 2.96%. Over double what they were just over a year ago! Guggenheim Investments Global CIO Scott Menard remarked that, on a percentage basis, the recent rise in rates has been the most violent on record. Since most borrowing costs are based on the 10 year treasury rates, it is likely that the Fed is going to be a little worried about the velocity of this rise. This is likely the main reason they did not announce a tapering of QE (Quantitative Easing) this month, as some had expected. Putting off the ending or lessening of this program has at least temporarily slowed, or perhaps even stopped, the trend of significant increases in yields. If they had not made this decision, the quicklyrising mortgage costs may have caused a rate shock and put the brakes on the newly recovering housing market. Since most of this rise occurred in the few short months since April, as the chart below shows, it is increasingly likely that the Fed will continue the current QE program for some time to come in order to slow the velocity of the rising rates.

Of more immediate investment importance is the steep bond sell off that has occurred, how rising borrowing rates may affect the real estate market, and whether or not stocks are getting expensive.

2 Page 2 of 5 Source: Payden & Rygel Economics Talk The steep rise in treasury rates reflects enormous selling pressure in that portion of the market. More sellers than buyers mean the prices of the bonds will drop as rates rise. Foreigners have joined the Treasury bond selling frenzy with the most selling pressure ever. I continue to consider this, and points like it; contrarian reasons to buy rather than sell as it looks like investor panic has set in. Source: 361 Capital s Weekly Research Briefing 8/19/2013 Real Estate: The Data Still Shows Prices Rising, but the Rising Borrowing Costs are Creating Future Uncertainty The most recent Case Shiller Home Price Indices report shows that all 20 cities again posted monthly and annual gains. It should be noted that the current data depicts

I continue to consider this, and points like it; contrarian reasons to buy rather than sell as it looks like investor panic has set in.

3 Page 3 of 5 only what happened June 2013 and earlier, and does not yet show the impact of sharply higher mortgage rates since that time. Anecdotal evidence suggests that buying and refinancing activity has dropped substantially because of the rate spike. Nevertheless, available data shows housing markets all around the U.S. have seen steep price growth over the last few years, as the chart below shows. Source: Bespoke Investment Group Domestic Stock Markets Are Near All Time Highs and Are Starting to Look Expensive The general stock market continues to perform well, once again near all time highs. While it always feels good to be at market highs, that is also typically when it becomes the most dangerous time for investors. Showing some justification for this concern is the ratio of equity mutual fund/etf assets to money market funds (aka cash). We now have a ratio higher than the last major market tops, which shows high investor optimism and/or complacency with low levels of cash being held on the sidelines.

have seen steep price growth over the last few years, as the chart below shows.

4 Page 4 of 5 Source: Minyanville However, this is for the domestic market and does not necessarily reflect that all equity types have becoming richly priced. Emerging markets (EM) for example have had a tough year so far and are looking very cheap in a Price To Earnings (P/E) Ratio comparison. The below chart shows a historical comparison between the Shiller P/E Ratio (there are many different measures of P/E) for U.S. stocks and EM stocks. Source: PIMCO Connect Investment Update July 2013 What we can take away from the above historical comparison is that domestic stocks do not have a favorable long term outcome at the projected 1% ten year annualized number, while EM stock valuation levels project an annualize 13.8% over the same time frame. Domestic stocks are not necessarily a risk, but they are also probably not the best opportunity at today s levels based on this data point. This supports following basic portfolio rebalancing principles, like we have done throughout the year, which requires periodically selling assets that have become relatively expensive compared to other parts

The below chart shows a historical comparison between the Shiller P/E Ratio (there are many different measures of P/E) for U.S. stocks and EM stocks.

5 Page 5 of 5 of the portfolio. This year s CWM rebalances have resulted in the partial sale of domestic assets and purchase of EM assets because of data like that displayed above. What This All Means for CWM Clients Interest rates are spiking sharply because of the general bond sell off that has occurred over the summer. This sell off will create an opportunity to buy at some point and our Performance Targeting System (PTS ) trading methodology has indicated that we should begin considering a further move into bonds. This move would make all CWM clients more conservative than their normal model biases. We are waiting for the current market trend, which is currently to the upside for equities and downside for bonds, to show signs of turning before making this move. We refer to this as validation of our PTS indication. It is important to note here that this eventual trade will more than likely not be perfectly timed. No one has a crystal ball and clients should not expect instant gratification. Investing is about years, not days, weeks, or even months. For now the plan is to keep letting bonds get cheaper, and ride the market momentum. Until it turns, we will follow our general rebalancing strategies and continue the disciplined process of selling assets that are relatively expensive and buying those that are relatively cheap. Rest assured that your CWM team is considering all of the above data and much more. We are prepared to make changes at any time as necessary. Do you have questions or comments about the above subjects or other investment topics? I would love to have a conversation with you! Feel free to me at MorganA@comprehensivewealth.com. Morgan Arford Investment Strategist, Principal MorganA@comprehensivewealth.com This article has been prepared and distributed for informational purposes only and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy any security or investment or to participate in any trading strategy. Information is based on sources believed to be reliable; however, their accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax, legal or investment planning advice as individual situations will vary. For specific advice about your situation, please consult with a financial professional. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

This sell off will create an opportunity to buy at some point and our Performance Targeting System (PTS ) trading methodology has indicated that we should begin considering a further move into bonds.

Chapter Seven STOCK SELECTION

Chapter Seven STOCK SELECTION 1. Introduction The purpose of Part Two is to examine the patterns of each of the main Dow Jones sectors and establish relationships between the relative strength line of