Stroud Valleys Employment Study. Final Report. Prepared by WHITE YOUNG GREEN PLANNING AND CHESTERTON PLC. On behalf of. Stroud District Council

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1 Stroud Valleys Employment Study Final Report Prepared by WHITE YOUNG GREEN PLANNING AND CHESTERTON PLC On behalf of Stroud District Council November 2003

2 CONTENTS Page No EXECUTIVE SUMMARY i 1 INTRODUCTION 1 2 WORKFORCE AND JOBS PROFILE WITHIN THE STROUD VALLEYS AREA 2 3 STROUD VALLEYS LOCAL BUSINESS SURVEY 17 4 STRATEGIC CONTEXT WITH REGARD TO EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES 20 IN GLOUCESTERSHIRE AND STROUD 5 MAIN CENTRES OF EMPLOYMENT WITHIN THE STUDY AREA 32 6 CURRENT DEMAND FOR WORKSPACE 45 7 TYPE OF DEMAND EXPRESSED TO LOCAL AGENTS 52 8 NATIONAL AND REGIONAL TRENDS TO POTENTIAL INDUSTRIES AND GROWTH SECTORS SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS 64 APPENDIX I: WARD MAPS APPENDIX II: LOCAL BUSINESS SURVEY - QUESTIONNAIRE AND SURVEY RESULTS APPENDIX III: SCHEDULE OF CANAL CORRIDOR SITES AS ASSESSED BY ECOTEC APPENDIX IV: SCHEDULE OF EMPLOYERS ON KEY EMPLOYMENT SITES APPENDIX V: APPRAISAL OF KEY EMPLOYMENT ALLOCATIONS

3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1.0 Introduction 1.01 White Young Green Planning in association with Chesterton Plc were commissioned by Stroud District Council in July 2003, to undertake a study of employment in the Stroud Valleys area of the district The aim of the study was to provide comprehensive baseline information to inform the development of Council policy, particular the land use elements of planning policy for employment purposes and a strategy for the restoration of the Stroudwater and Thames and Severn Canals. It was recognised that such information would also assist the Council in terms of formulating economic development, marketing and promotion strategies and in the preparation of bids for funding In particular, the study seeks to analyse key issues relating to: Workforce and jobs profile within the Stroud Valleys area; An employment site profile of key areas within the Stroud Valleys area; and A property market overview 2.0 WORKFORCE AND JOBS PROFILE WITHIN THE STROUD VALLEYS AREA 2.01 From the evidence outlined in the main report, it would appear that the messages for the future of the labour force within the Stroud Valleys study area and Stroud District are extremely positive. There is a growing population which is showing no real signs of ageing, the number of people in employment aged between 16 and 74 has increased, economic activity rates are increasing, unemployment is falling and the overall skills base is improving with a greater proportion of senior mangers and professionals. However, whilst this would appear to be an impressive performance at the local level, it is evident that there is significant net out-commuting within the District Therefore, while there would appear to be strong growth in the local labour force, the actual number of jobs generated locally would appear to be declining, particularly within the manufacturing sector. Given the overall growth in the local population and the number of economically active people, this would appear to suggest that the outcommuting could have increased significantly. In addition, whilst the number of employment opportunities generated locally has declined, there would appear to be positive growth in the overall number of business within the study area. Of the 158 new businesses created between 1998 and 2001 within the Stroud Valleys area, 70% employed four or less people. Given that this trend is set to continue, there would appear to be strong emerging messages that would suggest that demand for smaller workspaces will continue to increase within the Stroud Valleys area but that opportunities to accommodate larger employers should not be ignored In conclusion, whilst some commentators may argue that the labour force within the Stroud Valleys area is extremely tight and therefore, opportunities to accommodate major employers will be limited, it must be recognised that a significant pool of labour is currently residing within the study area but working elsewhere. Therefore, it will be important to scrutinise the new out-commuting data provide by the 2001 census (due out in the late Autumn) to understand the skills that are being lost and whether or not it is reasonable to assume that some of this can be clawed back in the future. However, any future strategy must also not lose sight of the fact that the Stroud Valleys area is an extremely successful place for small companies to do business. Not only is the majority of growth centred on new small businesses, but survival rates appear to be increasing at a significant rate despite a short term decline experienced throughout the County. Therefore, it must be recognised that the Stroud Valleys study area is increasingly becoming a centre of excellence in terms of fostering and i

4 developing small businesses. Much of this is down to the existing property stock, which provides affordable space in a high quality environment, in an area that offers a high quality of life However, it is important that the Stroud Valleys area does not solely become almost an incubator unit for the wider county or South West Region. It will be important to ensure that there are sufficient opportunities for businesses who want to expand and grow, to be able to do this locally rather than having to relocate elsewhere which will only exacerbate out-commuting in the future. 3.0 STROUD VALLEYS LOCAL BUSINESS SURVEY 3.01 In order to arrive at robust conclusions and provide advice to Stroud District Council on ways to enhance the business prospects within the Stroud Valleys area in the future, it is evident that there is a need to understand the key issues and constraints which impact upon existing businesses within the study area. Whilst there is much anecdotal evidence as to local businesses needs and wants, the methodology for the study recognised the value of undertaking original market research to help qualify local issues and factors which will influence the overall conclusions reached In order to achieve this, a telephone survey of over 200 companies within the Stroud Valleys study area was commissioned which represents a sample of 15% of the 1,380 businesses registered within the study area. Given that 81% of the businesses registered employ between one and nine people, it is evident that the sample will be focussed on smaller businesses within the study area. However, a sample has been spread across both size ranges and Standard Industrial Classification to enable cross tabulations and searches to be undertaken relating to type of business and size The key findings of the research are set out in the main report. However, as highlighted previously, the number of small employers within the Stroud Valleys area is growing against overall falling levels of employment opportunities. Therefore, it is fundamental that if the Stroud Valleys area is to become a popular location for small businesses to start-up or grow then the key issues that relate to smaller businesses must not be overlooked. From the survey research it is evident that these issues include: the need to provide freehold accommodation as well as serviced leasehold premises, the need to provide sites and premises that will allow businesses to grow and expand locally, the need for flexible accommodation which can appeal to a range of businesses and the need to build upon key strengths such as the quality of working environment, high survival rates and the strong local loyalty. 4.0 STRATEGIC CONTEXT WITH REGARD TO EMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN GLOUCESTERSHIRE AND STROUD 4.01 From the research outlined in the main report, it is evident that there is significant strategic support for the future development of the market town and rural economy within the Stroud Valleys area, with a particular focus on advancing the tourism and leisure industry, promoting the overall quality of life and the environment and supporting indigenous business growth and micro-businesses The Local Plan recognises the importance of key employment locations throughout the district and the need to provide opportunities for the growth and expansion of local businesses as well as providing opportunities to attract new businesses. On this basis, the plan identifies land that should be protected for employment use to provide the necessary physical product to enable this strategy to be realised and ensure that the local area can develop a sustainable economy, which thereby seeks to address the ever increasing net out commuting In addition, it is evident that both the regional, county and local level strategies recognise the importance of developing the tourism economy and that the canal corridor is a key driver in achieving this goal. Given that a significant proportion of the ii

5 employment land allocated within the Stroud Valleys study area is adjacent to or adjoins the canal corridor, it would appear that future commercial redevelopment opportunities all very much focus on the reuse of currently designated employment land The study recently undertaken to explore the potential economic impact of the Cotswold Canal Restoration identifies that a number of the allocated employment sites along the corridor appear to be underutilised and be vacant/derelict and that there is a potential opportunity to deliver comprehensive redevelopment through the provision of alternative uses. In summary, the study concludes that Stroud has been unable to capture the buoyancy of the current market and has failed to perform well against its neighbouring competitors. However, the residential sector has been and remains by far the strongest commercial sector and therefore the study concludes that much of the development activity along the canal corridor will be driven by residential uses. Whilst there is a recognised opportunity to provide mixed use schemes including accommodation for small to medium enterprises to provide expansion base for local companies Given the fact that the work undertaken as part of the appraisal of the economic impact of the Cotswold Canal Restoration challenges the potential future use of allocated employment opportunities along the canal corridor, this study recognises the importance of not only investigating in detail the current demand for commercial property within the Stroud Valleys area but also to comprehensively review the future development opportunities that are potentially available within the key employment land identified Although the restoration of the canal corridor is fundamental to the future development of the tourism and leisure industry within the Stroud Valleys area, it is important to ensure that an appropriate balance is struck between the restoration of the canal and the maintenance of local employment opportunities to ensure that the key objectives of achieving sustainable local economies identified at the regional level can still be achieved in the future. Given the fact that Stroud District is significantly constrained by the Cotswold Area of Outstanding Natural Beauty, opportunities to identify additional employment land in the future will be extremely limited. Therefore, significant consideration must be given to the fact that once designated employment land is lost within the Stroud Valleys area, the potential to accommodate the growth and expansion of local businesses in the future could be lost Therefore an important component of this study is to not only explore the viability of existing key centres of employment but to explore the potential demand for employment opportunities in the future and how policy measures and future intervention by the Council can ensure that the Stroud Valleys study area is used as a catalyst to drive forward the provision of a sustainable local economy which tackles both the key issues identified within the rural and urban areas. 5.0 MAIN CENTRES OF EMPLOYMENT WITHIN THE STUDY AREA 5.01 The analysis outlined in the main report demonstrates that the main centres of employment within the study area are not solely focused upon the key employment sites set out under Policy E1 in the Local Plan. Clearly there are important employment generating uses linked to retail, hotels and restaurants, education and healthcare and individual premises housing larger/multinational employers However, it is often difficult to provide a land use policy approach, which could protect and enhance the future growth of these key sectors similar to the common approach adopted for uses falling under Use Classes of B1, B2 and B In dealing with the key employment land designations within the Local Plan, it is evident that in general, the levels of occupation within the designated areas are extremely high and that despite the low quality and inflexibility of the accommodation iii

6 provided, this does not appear to have a dramatic impact on local businesses willingness to occupy the space. However, employment levels appear low in many of these areas and there are clear opportunities to realise greater employment potential Within the study area there is a key divide between the major employment generating uses in the west focused at Stroudwater Business Park, which contrasts starkly to key employment sites in the east such as the Chalford Industrial Estate which provides accommodation for local companies seeking cheap and accessible accommodation. However, it must be recognised that the smaller industrial estates located throughout the eastern area of the Stroud Valleys play just as important role in supporting the local economy and more important the local rural economy From our review of the key employment sites within the Stroud Valleys area, it is encouraging to note the high levels of occupancy despite the poor quality of stock available and the limitations with regard to access and signage. Clearly, where high quality premises can be provided such as at the Stroud Enterprise Centre and Brimscombe Port, the demand for space is significant. This is a fundamental issue for the future growth of employment within the Stroud Valleys area It could be easy to dismiss a number of sites particularly EK7 and EA12 on the basis that there is limited demand and therefore, redevelopment for alternative uses should be considered. However, our survey of all the key sites within the Stroud Valleys area appears to demonstrate that where high quality accommodation is provided at a reasonable price, the demand is significant. Given the extremely poor quality of the environment and the inhabitable accommodation provided in locations such as the Dudbridge Industrial Area it is not surprising to discover that occupancy rates are low and buildings are derelict. Whilst the site remains in this condition, it is difficult to envisage how it will attract future employment generating uses. Therefore, it will be important to assess current demand within the study area to explore whether or not sites such as EK7 remain relatively unoccupied due to lack of demand or because of the sites current condition. 6.0 CURRENT DEMAND FOR WORKSPACE 6.01 From the research undertaken, it is apparent that clear trends can be identified from the analysis of demand enquiries and take up data. These can be summarised as follows: Demand for industrial workspace (B1/B2) uses has dominated the commercial market in the Stroud Valleys. Enquiries confirm a predominantly locally derived demand base. Strong demand exists for small requirements, typically in the range 500 to 10,000ft 2 for industrial workspace. Local agents confirm that demand is concentrated in the range 2,500ft 2 to 7,500ft 2, which largely provide for local start up needs and expansion needs. Limited demand appears to be secured from inward investment and company relocations given the proximity of larger competitor centres including Gloucester, Cheltenham and Bristol. This is reflected by patterns of take up activity. As with industrial premises, the demand for office accommodation is typically for small premises, in the range 50ft 2 to 2,000ft 2. In many cases, the demand for office accommodation is driven by the requirements of local industrial occupiers. With the exception of a few major employers, the Stroud Valleys supports a limited offices base. Actual take up data is heavily influenced by a number of large units, e.g. the former Joseph Gartner unit at Stroudwater, most recently occupied by Unite. As a iv

7 consequence there is a need for caution in reviewing take up data, which may explain major fluctuations in take up trends. Limited take up activity for B8 uses in the Stroud and Stonehouse area confirms the provision of significant areas of competitor supply located immediately off junction 12 of the M5. This includes sites to the north, at Quedgley including Quadrant, Quedgley East and West and Javelin Park. Statistical data appears to support the site survey analysis undertaken for the study, which confirms overall high levels of occupation within the industrial estates and employment centres of the study area. As discussed elsewhere in this study, the quality of workspace supply is considered a major issue. The existence of a number of large vacant premises in the study area, including the former Mitapress unit at Bath Road Industrial Estate and the vacant factory at Brimscombe Port in Thrupp (now acquired by British Waterways), largely reflect their unsuitability in meeting the requirements of local demand. Demand clearly exists but it does not match the nature of supply offered by the large vacant units. Retail demand, as measured by Focus, confirms a significant growth in requirements for Stroud, although this measure of retailer confidence and demand for a centre is restricted to national multiples. Extension of the Merrywalks Centre will help accommodate this demand. Overall retail activity however is limited given the proximity of larger retailer centres to the west of the Stroud Valleys. Identified requirements for leisure uses is more difficult to quantify given the nature of the leisure offer. It could be expected however that demand remains strong for leisure uses that support the healthy tourism market in the Stroud Valleys given its location in the Cotswolds. The restoration of the Cotswold Canals that run through the Stroud Valleys may help expand those leisure uses which serve the tourism market. In addition, the future success of the proposed leisure complex at Merrywalks could also have a significant impact upon future demand in this sector linked to the wider growth of the evening economy in Stroud. 7.0 TYPE OF DEMAND EXPRESSED TO LOCAL AGENTS 7.01 Discussions with local property agents confirm many of the trends identified in the demand analysis. In summary, the commercial market in the Stroud Valleys is driven by: Focus for locally generated demand, concentrated on the industrial market, typically in units of 2,500ft 2 to 10,000ft 2. A major characteristic of demand includes the loyalty and commitment to stay within the area once established. The office market has not traditionally been important in the local market although schemes are beginning to focus on the value and quality of available supply. Demand is driven by the quality of workspace provision. The study confirms the findings of the county-wide Small Business Units Study (2002) which notes the oversupply of poorer quality accommodation, particularly within former mill buildings. By contrast, demand for quality workspace exceeds supply. Quality of workspace impacts on rental values. Given the desire for low cost accommodation, this is reflected in the quality of available provision. That aside, where quality provision is available at competitive rental values, demand has been strong, as shown at Bond Mills, Stroud Enterprise Centre and Prospect House. v

8 The Stroud Valleys market is effectively split on an east/west basis, with the older, mill buildings concentrated in the east and the large, level new employment sites concentrated at Stroudwater/Stonehouse to the west. The west of the study area benefits from its proximity to the motorway and as a consequence provides larger, purpose built units that meet the needs of inward investors. A high demand exists for freehold premises. This can be irrespective of location. The appeal of workspace provision at Aston Down is likely to be determined by the availability of units on a freehold basis. Agents report that the success of this site should be based on a comprehensive master plan exercise and marketing campaign to understand true levels of demand for the accommodation available. 8.0 FUTURE GROWTH SECTORS 8.01 The identification of growth sectors is based on those sectors, which are considered to possess the greatest potential for future output and employment growth. Prospects for sector growth are based on national and regional trends, which are forecast to influence the economic performance of sectors. In a number of cases, clear trends (both positive and negative) exist although there is a need for caution in targeting sectors given the need for flexibility to address changes in circumstance That aside, recent economic performance alongside economic forecasting, identify a number of sectors which ideally could contribute to future growth in the Stroud Valleys. A comprehensive range of sectors have been identified, including a number which accord with the growth sectors identified by SWRDA and the Gloucestershire Economic Strategy In addition, this report considers that a number of additional key sectors and industries could contribute to the economic prosperity of the Stroud Valleys. The creative industries, education/training and distribution sectors represent sectors, which are ideally placed to support employment in the study area and confirm the type of sector requirement increasingly received by Gloucestershire First. Similarly, the creative industries and education/training industries reflect the growing importance of quality of life issues, while the former mill buildings of the valleys are ideally placed to accommodate the needs of elements of the creative industries. Modest, newer office workspace however is likely to be required to support the education/training needs By contrast, although the distribution/storage sector is more limited in the study area, particularly in the east of the study area, activity could be promoted at the Stonehouse/Stroudwater area. This location benefits from its proximity to the M5 junction, its strategic access to the South West, South Wales and the Midlands, and land values. It is recognised that a substantial level of competing distribution related supply exists in close proximity at Quedgeley although the sector is considered worthy of consideration in view of its wider growth prospects. The image of the distribution sector does not necessarily involve large areas of land for warehousing. A significant level of demand exists for small distribution requirements, as demonstrated from the demand requirement analysis. 9.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE MAIN STUDY Future Strategic Appropach 9.01 It is evident from the research undertaken to date that the Council is faced with somewhat of a dilemma when planning for the future development of employment generating uses within the Stroud Valleys area. It would appear that recent trends within the local labour market suggest that jobs are being lost from the Valleys, which are primarily linked to the decline of the manufacturing industry. However, these job losses are having little impact upon the overall local labour force who reside within the study area. Whilst employment opportunities within the Stroud Valleys area are vi

9 falling, there is clear evidence that the population is growing, economic activity rates are increasing, average earnings are increasing and unemployment is falling Therefore, it could be argued that whilst employment opportunities are being lost, this is having no impact on the local economy as a whole so the need for intervention is limited. However, such an approach would not appear to be tackling the growing problem of out-commuting. Although data on out and in-commuting is not yet available from the 2001 Census it is evident that if the local population is growing and unemployment is falling - but employment opportunities are declining locally then residents must be travelling outside the study area and District to access employment opportunities It is not surprising to discover that out-commuting is increasing, given the quality of life available within Stroud and its close proximity to Gloucester and Cheltenham. However, one of the key aims of the Provisional Rural Economic Strategy for Gloucestershire is to strengthen rural communities to enable such areas to develop and strengthen their own economies. The strategy also recognises the important role that towns/market towns will have to play in providing future employment opportunities for their communities. Therefore, whilst it may be argued that outcommuting from the Stroud Valleys area is inevitable, it would appear that there is clear strategic direction to provide sustainable local economies that can provide employment opportunities for their resident population The do nothing approach would not appear to be an option that the Council can take in the future, given the fact that this is likely to exacerbate the problem of outcommuting and create a less sustainable local community which will ultimately impact on the range of local services that are provided. Therefore, whilst at face value the local economy and labour force within the Stroud Valleys would appear to be strong, there are key challenges to be tackled if the area is to retain a sustainable employment base which can provide significant spin off benefits for the wider economy. Building on Current Strengths 9.05 Although as highlighted above employment opportunities would appear to be declining within the Stroud Valleys area, there are a number of positive messages that have been identified within this study that should be taken forward as part of the future strategic approach. The number of businesses within the study area actually increased during the same period that employment opportunities declined. Whilst this means that the average size (in terms of employees) of businesses within the area is falling, there is clear evidence that businesses are still prepared to invest within the Stroud Valleys area More importantly, Stroud District and the Stroud Valleys area in particular has become a popular location for micro businesses to successfully operate. 70% of the 158 new businesses that located within the Stroud Valleys area between 1998 and 2001 employ four people or less. In addition, the survival rate of new businesses within Stroud has also increased significantly and is currently out-performing the County in this respect. Therefore, although the Stroud Valleys area provides opportunities to accommodate large employers at Stonehouse in the West, there has been obvious success locally in supporting the development of new small businesses Having interviewed businesses within the study area, much of this success would appear to be as a result of a combination of the affordability of local property stock, the quality of life and the environment and the availability of skills/labour force. The quality of life/working environment cannot be overstated. A resounding 79% of businesses interviewed felt that the quality of the working environment within the Stroud Valleys area was good or very good. Overall 76% stated that the area was good or very good as a place to do business. vii

10 9.08 Evidence on local commercial market demand would appear to support this conclusion. From our research, it is evident that strong demand exists for small requirements, which are typically concentrated in the 2,500 to 7,500 sq ft range. Local property agents have confirmed that such requirements generally cater for local start up and expansion needs. Not surprisingly, there is little demand from inward investors and this is reflected in patterns of take up activity. Main Centres of Employment 9.09 Although the Stroud Valleys area is important in supporting the micro-business sector, it is also evident that there is a steady take-up of larger units within the area although this is focused primarily at Stroudwater Business Park to the west of the study area However, it is evident from the research undertaken to date that the key employment allocations, which primarily focus on B1, B2 and B8 uses, are not the only source of employment within the Stroud valleys area. Major employers within key sectors such as retail, health and education cannot be overlooked when exploring the potential for supporting new employment opportunities. Clearly, the role played in the local economy by key employers such as the three major supermarkets within Stroud, Stroud General Hospital, Stroud College and Stroud & Swindon Building Society cannot be ignored. However, whilst it will be imperative that every effort is made to ensure that these key employers can maintain and even enhance their presence locally, the opportunity for developing land-use based policies to support future employment development is extremely limited Based on the current performance of Stroud Town Centre, it is unlikely that the centre will witness significant demand for major expansion in the short to medium term. The same could be said for other key centres such as Nailsworth and Stonehouse. Therefore, it would appear from our survey of the main centres of employment throughout the Stroud Valleys area that hold the key as areas of future opportunity are those focused upon the current employment designations identified under Policies E1 and E However, from our appraisal of each of the key sites and allocations within the Stroud Valleys area, it would appear that there is a clear East/West divide in terms of quality of accommodation, stock and opportunities for expansion. Key areas in the West, including Stroudwater Business Park, Oldends Lane Industrial Area and Bonds Mill, all show positive signs of strong demand, quality premises, concentration of large occupiers and good accessibility/links with the M5 corridor. In comparison, accommodation to the West of the study area is focused more on the conversion of old industrial buildings or mills which vary in quality and are often constrained by poor quality access and environment, limited signage and poor quality parking facilities Despite the limited quality of accommodation stock within the East, occupancy rates are still very strong. There is evidence of high vacancy rates on some industrial estates (particularly in Inchbrook) but this appears to be a result of poor management and marketing rather than a true lack of demand. THE IMPORTANCE OF QUALITY 9.14 Where high quality accommodation has been provided, it is evident that demand is very strong and take-up rates are impressive. One of the best examples of this is the Stroud Enterprise Centre, which provides high quality workspace accommodation benefiting from a high quality environment, secure parking and good signage. Our discussions with local commercial agents have confirmed that as high quality workspace accommodation is in short supply within the Stroud valleys area any scheme, which meets this growing sector of the market will always prove popular. In fact the local agents have confirmed that demand within the Stroud Valleys study viii

11 area is primarily driven by the quality of workspace provision. This would appear to support the findings of the countywide Small Business Units Study (2002) which notes the oversupply of poorer quality accommodation in contrast to the demand for higher quality workspace However, it must be noted that some of the poor quality stock proves popular because it enables new businesses to acquire property at a limited cost which can often assist in survival rates. In addition, as with many small businesses, the demand for freehold accommodation rather than leasehold is significant. Agents have confirmed that over half of the enquiries received locally are for freehold properties. The survey of local employers has also confirmed this with over 52% of the businesses interviewed actually owning their own premises. Therefore, the contribution of cheaper and lower quality premises must also be recognised. An appropriate balance must be struck in the future to ensure that local businesses are not priced out of the Stroud Valleys area as greater pressure is place upon occupiers to improve their premises or contribute significantly to environmental improvements However, from our survey of the main centres of employment, it would appear that there is scope within existing sites to provide improvements to the overall quality of the offer. More importantly there is scope to provide redevelopment opportunities to ensure that future opportunities to secure employment are not lost because of the lack of quality premises From our review of the 21 key employment sites within the study area, it would appear that there are potentially three locations where future redevelopment could facilitate the provision of quality accommodation. These would not only appeal to start-ups but also provide important expansion opportunities to enable local business to grow locally. These locations are; Dudbridge Industrial Area (EK7), Lodgemore /Fromehall Mills (EK37) and Ham Mill and adjacent land (EA12/EK14) From our research to date, it is evident that there is significant demand focused within the central area of Stroud Valleys particularly around Stroud. However, the current stock means that many of these requirements are either satisfied in one or two locations such as Bath Road Industrial Estate or the Stroud Enterprise Centre or are lost. Therefore, there is a clear opportunity to enhance the quality and range of accommodation available within the central area to better meet the needs of local business In this report we have examined certain sectors where Stroud could benefit from future growth. However, without a balanced property portfolio and available accommodation, the ability to capture this growth will be extremely limited. Therefore, rather than seeking to pursue certain growth sectors in the short term, future resources should be channelled into providing appropriate land and premises that can assist in creating a more sustainable local economy However, whilst there are a number of clear redevelopment opportunities, which could make a significant contribution to creating a better balance of accommodation in the east and west, opportunities to improve existing successful employment centres must not be overlooked. While the vast majority of current employment allocations are well occupied, there are obvious opportunities to secure improvements in signage, accessibility, marketing, secure car parking, management and the general quality of the environment. This alone would have a considerable impact upon the overall attractiveness of accommodation within the study area and would assist in tackling concentrations of existing vacancies particularly to the north of Nailsworth Town Centre. In addition, although there is evidence of high levels of occupation, the overall employment levels generated on some of these sites is limited. For example, Stroud Farm Services at Chalford Industrial Estate occupy two large premises within the estate but only employ 6 to 10 people. Therefore, future improvements to some of these key locations could also assist in intensifying the overall levels of job generation on-site thereby, providing better utilisation of the ix

12 resources available. This is an approach which is fully supported by Gloucestershire 1 st and is currently being examined as part of their Workspace Strategy Although it will be important to explore opportunities for redevelopment in the medium to long term, it is evident that there are number of short term improvements that could be pursued by the Council to assist in raising the overall quality of the stock particularly in the East. It must be noted that the quality of life/working environment is identified as a key strength within the Study Area and therefore, every effort should be made to promote the Stroud Valleys area as a high quality place to successfully do business This is particularly important if the Stroud Valleys Area is to prove successful in creating more sustainable local economy which can maximise the benefits provided by the growth in the local population, the significant increases in the number of people who are economically active and the overall increases in the number of businesses now operating within the area. The Cotswold Canal Restoration 9.23 In Section 4 of this report, reference has been made to the recent study undertaken by ECOTEC on behalf of British Waterways. In terms of the local property market, the study concluded that Stroud was a declining commercial and retail centre which contrasted starkly to the success of key locations to the west, especially Stonehouse. Therefore, any future regeneration of key sites along the canal corridor would have to be residential-led as there is identified demand in this sector. In contrast, the report concludes that demand from the employment sector is less certain. However, the report does acknowledge that the lack of enquiries can in part be attributed to the shortage of quality accommodation (para 6.3.1) This study recognises the important role of the canals in developing the tourism industry locally and supporting future diversification following the decline of manufacturing. However, an appropriate balance must be struck between securing future canal side restoration and providing sufficient employment opportunities to assist in the development of a sustainable local economy. Whilst the ECOTEC report acknowledges that demand for employment premises in the Stroud valleys Area is heavily influenced by the quality of stock, this issues appears to have then been somewhat dismissed in favour of residential development when considering sites for regeneration/restoration The ECOTEC report acknowledges that there is significant demand for employment land in the West driven by strong links to the M5 corridor. However, despite this recognised demand, employment land identified adjacent to Bonds Mill (which as highlighted in this report is an extremely successful employment location which must be allowed to expand) has been considered for residential development if policy issues could be overcome. This recommended approach applies to a number of key employment sites and locations throughout the Stroud Valleys Study Area where residential development has been highlighted as the key driver in the redevelopment of these important employment locations. These locations include Chalford Industrial Estate, Fromehall Mill, Ham House/Ham Mill, Phoenix Industrial Estate, Hope Mills, and Brimscombe Port Industrial Estate. The conclusions reached on Chalford Industrial Estate include an option for complete redevelopment of mixed use. This would appear to conflict starkly with the conclusions reached in this report which demonstrates that whilst Chalford Industrial Estate would benefit from environmental improvements, the estate is fully occupied and provides employment for over 200 people Therefore, it will be important for the District Council to carefully consider the role of these key employment locations in supporting the local economy in the future and whether or not future employment land along the canals can be released for mixed use or residential development. The findings of this study suggest that whilst a x

13 number of the existing employment locations could benefit from improvements to signage and the quality of environment, their contribution to creating and fostering local businesses is considerable. However, the report has specifically identified three key areas where further consideration should be given to more comprehensive redevelopment which could include mixed use development. The redevelopment of these areas would not only provide more modern employment accommodation which would better suit demand, but would also provide the opportunity to achieve comprehensive canal restoration including residential development Therefore, whilst the findings of this study recognise that the employment land resource within the Stroud Valleys Area (particularly in the east) is a finite resource which has an important role to play in creating and supporting a more sustainable local economy in the future, there are opportunities for improvement and intensification. However, the approach recommended would not support comprehensive redevelopment of key employment sites primarily for residential development as suggested in the ECOTEC report The conclusions reached by ECOTEC are based on the assumption that outcommuting within Stroud District will increase overtime and there is limited future potential to provide employment opportunities locally to influence this trend. From the evidence gathered as part of this study, it would appear that there is clear demand for employment opportunities within the Stroud Valleys Area. However, it is critical that the accommodation provided in the future sits full square with the demand expressed. With this in mind, it would appear that there are significant opportunities to explore redevelopment opportunities that will not only provide high quality business accommodation but at the same time secure the regeneration and restoration of key canal side locations. Next Steps 9.29 Although this study has confirmed that the current employment land allocations within the Stroud Valleys Study area are appropriate given the range of employers and local businesses that are focused in these areas, it is evident that significant resources could be committed in the future to enhance their role within the local economy. At present the majority of opportunities for medium to large employers are concentrated to the west of the study area in locations such as Stroudwater Business Park and Bonds Mill Industrial Estate. These locations not only benefit from proximity to the motorway network but also provide high quality accommodation located in a high quality environment. So long as sufficient land allocations can be provided to accommodate the future expansion of these successful areas, then it is unlikely that there will be need for intervention to maintain and enhance their future prospects However, the overall quality of allocations in the central and eastern areas of the Stroud Valleys study area, which primarily appeal to smaller employers, is wide ranging. Therefore, if the growth within the Stroud Valleys area is focused on small employers then there is a clear need to ensure that the right quality of accommodation can be provided in the future to ensure that these opportunities are not lost to competing locations elsewhere. In addition, there is also a clear need to enable smaller businesses to expand locally and ensure that businesses who startup in the area can remain loyal and are not forced to relocate elsewhere As highlighted previously, there are a number of opportunities where small improvements could be made to existing employment sites such as better signage, car parking, quality of environment, access, etc. These improvements primarily relate to the key employment sites along the London Road in Thrupp and the Inchbrook Industrial Area north of Nailsworth Town Centre. Opportunities to secure funding to improve the overall quality and attractiveness of these areas should be pursued to help support small local businesses that will have limited funds to initiate such improvements in the future. xi

14 9.32 For the three areas identified above which are in need of more comprehensive improvements (Dudbridge, Lodgemore/Fromehall Mill and Ham Mills), it is recommended that the Council could pursue a more focused policy approach (such as Supplementary Planning Guidance). This could help tackle the significant issues that currently constrain these areas employment potential. Given the fact that both Dudbridge and Lodgemore/Fromehall Mills include large important local employers it is evident that significant work would have to be undertaken in consultation with these key employers to explore ways in which these areas could be improved without impacting upon their future operation One option could be to consider some form of master planning exercise which could explore both the Dudbridge and Lodgemore/Fomehall Mills area together. This exercise would not only focus on how the allocations could be better utilised to meet local demand but also make better use of the canal frontage as part of the wider canal regeneration strategy. Given the potential opportunity for redevelopment and intensification, it would appear that there are significant gains to be made within these two key allocations, which could significantly enhance the future stock within the central area of the Stroud Valleys. The master plan would have to recognise the need for mixed use development to deliver future regeneration of this area, but a careful balance would have to be struck between uses to ensure that the focus on delivering employment opportunities is maintained or enhanced Supplementary Planning Guidance should also be prepared for Ham Mill (including adjacent vacant land and premises). For this location, it would appear that the exercise would be simpler given the fact that the whole of the site is now lying vacant and appears to be in single ownership. Again mixed use development should be considered to assist in the sites future regeneration and deliverability and to make use of the attractive frontage along the River Frome If future employment opportunities are to be maintained if not enhanced within the Stroud Valleys area then it is imperative that a pro-active approach is taken by the Council with regard to the current employment land allocations. The protective nature of Policy E1 is important to ensure that employment land within the Stroud Valleys is not lost. However, the policy will do little to encourage investment in certain locations where the quality of the allocation could be significantly enhanced. Land that is allocated and protected, but lying vacant or derelict, is an underutilised resource which could be contributing to the future growth of the local economy. It is therefore imperative that the Council explore ways in which these opportunities can be realised over the next plan period In addition, the District Council must not also lose sight of the fact that the manufacturing industry is declining within the Stroud Valleys Area and that the majority of the jobs that were lost from the area between 1998 and 2001 were full time male positions. Although these job losses do not appear to have had any significant impact on local unemployment rates, it is important that the appropriate reskilling opportunities are in place to ensure that people who lose their jobs locally are not forced to find alternative employment outside of the District. Clearly, this will only exacerbate out-commuting issues and therefore, further research into potential future skill mismatches and the skill needs of local businesses within the area must be considered If the Stroud Valleys Area is to build upon its key strength as an area which fosters entrepreneurial spirit and supports the growth of small local businesses, it will also be important for future research to explore new and innovative ways of supporting small business creation and development. This could include key initiatives such as social enterprise, co-operatives and the development of creative businesses. xii

15 CONCLUSION 9.38 From, the analysis undertaken to date, it is evident that the Stroud Valleys area has a number of significant benefits as a place to do business which, if exploited in the future, could assist considerably in creating a sustainable local economy for which there is considerable strategic support at the regional and county level This study has identified that whilst there are opportunities to capture future employment locally, resources in terms of land and premises are particularly tight in the central and eastern part of the study area. In this respect, the current strategy that has been adopted by the Council quite rightly seeks to protect these resources. However, protecting the resources from development for other uses is clearly not sufficient. It is evident that there will need to be a pro-active response by the Council to ensure that under-utilised employment land can be brought back into economic use which at the same time can assist in tackling the current lack of quality premises in the central and eastern areas. In addition, future intervention will be required to improve the overall quality of existing facilities that are trading successfully but are not exploiting the key strength of the study area which is the overall quality of the xiii

16 1.0 INTRODUCTION OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 1.01 White Young Green Planning in association with Chesterton Plc were commissioned by Stroud District Council in July 2003, to undertake a study of employment in the Stroud Valleys area of the district The aim of the study was to provide comprehensive baseline information to inform the development of Council policy, particular the land use elements of planning policy for employment purposes and a strategy for the restoration of the Stroudwater and Thames and Severn Canals. It was recognised that such information would also assist the Council in terms of formulating economic development, marketing and promotion strategies and in the preparation of bids for funding In particular, the study seeks to analyse key issues relating to: Workforce and jobs profile within the Stroud Valleys area; An employment site profile of key areas within the Stroud Valleys area; and A property market overview METHODOLOGY ADOPTED 1.04 In order to tackle the key requirements of the study set out above, the methodology adopted sought to draw upon nationally available statistical information to examine trends within the defined study area and understand the key implications for the future. In addition, whilst information was gathered from key sources including the Census, NOMIS and other key data sources, if was felt that given the specialist nature of employers within the Stroud Valleys area, it would be helpful to gain an understanding of their current performance, future aspirations and general views in terms of operating from the study area. To achieve this, a survey of 200 companies was undertaken which sought to gather important information on labour force issues, space requirements, and future prospects and intentions. The survey evidence will not only provide valuable information in terms of the current success of businesses within the Stroud Valleys area and workforce implications, but it will also provide detailed insights into accommodation requirements and future needs which can then be compared to the commercial market evidence gathered as part of this study Having analysed workforce and employment trends within the study area, the methodology adopted sought to undertake an analysis of key employment locations within the Stroud Valleys area to provide advice on the viability of individual sites. The methodology also focused upon, physical constraints including access; planning policy issues; the nature of the buildings; an assessment of what uses could be developed; the identification of barriers to investment on individual sites and the identification of areas for employment protection and possible enhancement Having reviewed the main centres of employment within the study area, it was then acknowledged that a detailed assessment of the employment property market would have to be completed to fully understand the findings of the audit outlined in phase 2 above. This third and final phase would involve a review of general market conditions involving making contact with key local agents to understand important local issues which impact upon the supply and demand of employment opportunities within the Stroud Valleys area In bringing together the audit of the key centres of employment within the Stroud Valleys area and the intelligence gained from the property market, it is envisaged that a robust view could be arrived at as to the future needs of the study area and potential improvements that could be put in place to protect, if not enhance, employment opportunities in the future. 1

17 2.0 WORKFORCE AND JOBS PROFILE WITHIN THE STROUD VALLEYS AREA THE STUDY AREA 2.01 The analysis undertaken within this study primarily focuses of the area known as the Stroud Valleys which includes the key settlements of Stonehouse, Stroud, Chalford, Minchinhampton and Nailsworth The detailed study area comprises 16 wards including: Stonehouse; Cainscross; Over Stroud; Uplands; Central; Valley; Slade; Trinity; Rodborough; Thrupp; Chalford; Minchinhampton; Amberley and Woodchester; Nailsworth; Farmhill & Paganhill; and The Stanleys The above wards are based on the boundaries defined from the 1 st April As highlighted below, in some cases historic information is only available based on 1991 ward definitions for which a slightly different study area has been adopted Using the 1991 District electoral ward boundaries, the study area adopted includes the following wards: Stonehouse; Cainscross; King s Stanley; Uplands; Central; Whiteshill; Randwick; Trinity; Rodborough; Thrupp; Chalford; Minchinhampton; and Nailsworth On the understanding that the 1991 Census information has been based on the 1991 wards outlined above and the 2001 Census information is provided using the 2002 ward definitions, in order to compare information from the 1991 Census with the 2001 Census, the Office for National Statistics have had to convert the 2001 Census back into the 1991 ward definitions Maps outlining the boundaries of both the 2002 and 1991 ward areas are attached in appendix I. 2

18 POPULATION CHANGE 2.07 According to the 2001 Census, the population within Stroud District was 107,898. This compares to the 1991 Census figure of 103,664, which represents and increase of 4% or 4,254 people. Based on the 2002 ward boundaries, the total population within the Stroud Valleys Study Area in 2001 was 51,541, which represent approximately 48% of the total population within Stroud District Although it is difficult to compare the actual numbers within the broad age categories given the different definitions of ward boundaries in 1991 and 2001, it is possible to examine the proportions to examine potential trends in certain age profiles. From the table outlined below, it is evident 78.3% of the people within the Stroud Valleys Study Area are aged below 60. This represents a 0.2 percentage point increase between 1991 and 2001 and would appear to demonstrate that the local area is not suffering from an ageing population Similar to the study area, the percentage of people aged below 60 within Stroud District has also remained almost relatively static at 77.2% in 2001 compared to 77.6% in However, there is a definite trend in both the study area and the district, which suggests that the number of people aged 20 to 29 has reduced compared to the increase in people aged 30 to 59. It could be argued that the significant increases in property prices locally could be forcing younger first time buyers to search for homes elsewhere outside the study area and district. However, it could also be argued that as more younger people go into further and higher education this can often impact on retention levels locally particularly for more rural areas However on the whole, it would appear that despite the overall growth in population locally, the study area has maintained a fairly stable age profile with only a modest increase in people aged 75 and over. This clearly has important implications for economic activity rates discussed in more detail below. Table 2.1: Age Profile within the Study Area and Stroud District Age Band Study Area Stroud District Under to to to to and over Total Source: Census 1991 & 2001 BREAKDOWN OF OCCUPATION OF THOSE IN EMPLOYMENT Local area Labour Force Survey 2.11 According to the 2001 Local Area Labour Force Survey provided by NOMIS, it is evident that of the 54,000 people who are in employment living within Stroud District, over 34% are working in management/senior official and professional occupations. This contrasts starkly to the figure for Gloucestershire as a whole, which is just over 24% and the Great Britain average which is 23% It is difficult to make comparisons with previously recorded data as the classification of employment by major occupation as this was revised in However, when examining historical data in 2000 and 1999 for the previous categories of managers / administrators and professional occupations, it is evident that there has been a 3

19 steady growth in the percentage number of people employed within these two categories within Stroud District. For example, in % of all those in employment within Stroud fell within the first two categories. By the year 2000, this had increased to 31.3%. As highlighted above, the figure now recorded under the new classifications for 2001 demonstrates that this growth has continued to occur with an increase to 34.3%. For the category which is now classed as skilled trade occupations, it would appear that there has been a decline in the percentage of all people in employment who are in the skilled trade occupations. In 1999 under the previous classification, the proportion of all in employment who are employed in this category was 18.5%. Based on the 2001 figures, it would appear that this category has declined to 13.3%. Clearly much of this decline will have been linked to the overall decline in manufacturing within Stroud as outlined below At a County level, it would appear that Gloucestershire has not witnessed the same growth in senior managers and professional occupations with the figures recorded for 1999 and 2000 showing percentage figures of 28% and 28.6% respectively. In fact, compared to the figures provided in 2001 (24.3%) there would appear to have been a slight decline at the County level. Census Data 2.14 According to the 2001 Census data, there are currently 52,389 people aged 16 to 74 in employment within Stroud. The Stroud Valleys Study Area accommodates 52% of the total with 27,083 people in employment. Table 2.2: 2001 Occupation Profiles of Residents Stroud District Stroud Valleys Glos South West No. % No. % % % Manger/Senior 8, , Official Professional 6, , Associate 6, , Professional & Technical Administrative 6, , & Secretarial Skilled Trades 7, , Personal 3, , Service Sales & 3, , Customer Service Process, Plant 4, , & Machine Elementary 5, , Total 52, , Source: Census Of the 52,389 in employment over 41% are employed in managerial, professional or associate professional occupations. This mirrors the position within the Stroud Valleys Study Area with again 41% employed in managerial, professional or associate professional occupations With regard to other key occupations in both Stroud District and the Stroud Valleys Area, it is evident that Skilled Trades and Process, Plant and Machine Operatives account for 23.3% and 23.5% of total occupations respectively As highlighted previously, the ward boundaries in Stroud were redefined in Therefore, although the 2001 Census information is available using these boundaries, 4

20 the 1991 Census is based on previously defined 1991 Frozen Wards. Therefore, although it is not possible to compare the actual numbers recorded for the Stroud Valleys Area, it impossible to review the percentage breakdown for each occupation to explore important trends and changes When defining the Stroud Valleys Study Area using 1991 Frozen Ward Boundaries it has been possible to arrive at an area that is very similar to the area defined using 2002 Ward Boundaries. Table 2.3: 1991 Occupation Profiles of Residents in the Study Area and the District Stroud District Stroud Valleys No. % No. % Manger/Senior Official 8, , Professional 5, , Associate Professional 4, , & Technical Administrative & 6, , Secretarial Skilled Trades 7, , Personal Service 3, , Sales & Customer 2, , Service Process, Plant & 5, , Machine Elementary 3, , Total 46, , Source: Census Based on the evidence gathered from the 1991 Census for Stroud District, it is evident that the number of people employed in managerial, professional or associate professional occupations has increased by 4.4 percentage points between 1991 and In the same period the number of people employed in Skilled trades fell from 16.5% to 13.9%. This decline is more obvious within the Stroud Valleys Study Area where there was a decline from 18.2% to 13.3% The current occupation profile within both Stroud District and the Stroud Valleys Study Area would appear to demonstrate that there is a broad spread of occupations among residents with a strong emphasis on managerial and professional occupations. When comparisons are made with both Gloucestershire and the South West, it would appear that both Stroud District and the Stroud Valleys Study Area have a greater proportion of managers, professionals and associate professionals Given the overall quality of life provided within Stroud District and the study area, it is not surprising to discover that there is a higher than average proportion of senior managers and professionals. With the increase in commuting time and distances, it is evident that Stroud has become a popular area for professionals to reside in but who work outside the District. COMMUTING 2.22 Although the above analysis provides an overview of what occupations working residents within Stroud District are employed in it is evident that a significant proportion of people living within the Stroud area work outside of the District. In fact, in 1991, 14,170 people lived within the District but worked elsewhere. Given that the National Travel Survey demonstrates that average distance between home and work in Britain has increased by 17% between 1991 and 2001 (from 7.2 miles to 8.5 miles) it is anticipated that this level of out-commuting will have increased. 5