Energy Prices: Up or Down? Michael Pollitt Judge Business School
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1 Energy Prices: Up or Down? Michael Pollitt Judge Business School CUEN Annual Conference Cambridge 11 June 2015
2 Summary Background and trends Additional policy support costs Competition in energy markets Exploitation of demand reduction Taxation of energy Future prospects
3 BACKGROUND AND TRENDS
4 Breakdown of Household Energy Bills Typical Gas Bill: 811; Typical Electricity Bill: 531. Source: Ofgem, Feb 2013
5 It is all about oil (and gas).. Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2015, p.15. Source:
6 Over 40 years real household prices have risen Average deflated household fuel prices (1990=100) Source: Great Britain s Housing Energy Fact File, 2013
7 Fuel Poverty for low income high costs households is an issue Source: Annual Fuel Poverty Statistics Report 2015, p.17.
8 However deflating by income 350 Average Income Deflated UK Household Fuel Price Indices (1990=100) Gas Electricity Oil Sources: Great Britain s Housing Energy Fact File, 2011, Table 3d and Social Trends: Income and Wealth (ST41), ONS 2010, Data for figure 1. Obtained by dividing average deflated household fuel price indices by real household disposable income per head indices.
9 However it s not about energy per se Price of energy services for lighting (UK) per million lumen hours Source: Fouquet and Pearson, 2006, p
10 POLICY COSTS
11 Currently energy and climate policy costs are small Source: DECC 2014, Estimated Impact of Energy and Climate Change Policies on Energy Prices and Bills, p.72.
12 Future Policy Costs look high (and assumptions suspect) Source: DECC 2014, Estimated Impact of Energy and Climate Change Policies on Energy Prices and Bills, p.74.
13 COMPETITION
14 Is competition a problem? Now being investigated by Competition and Markets Authority SVT = Standard Variable Tariff (Default tariff) Source: CMA February 2015, Updated Issues Statement, p.28.
15 DEMAND REDUCTION POTENTIAL
16 High prices have promoted energy saving by households Source: DECC 2014, Summary of Analysis using National Energy Efficiency Data Framework, p.16.
17 High prices have promoted energy saving by households Source: DECC 2014, Summary of Analysis using National Energy Efficiency Data Framework, p.15.
18 This is one of the biggest falls in the EU Source: Energy Trends March 2015, p.75.
19 TAXATION OF ENERGY
20 Diesel taxes are particularly high in UK Average EU Diesel Prices in Pence per litre as at February, 2015 Source: Table from QEP, March 2015, p.49.
21 Petrol taxes are pretty high in the UK Average EU Premium Unleaded Petrol Prices in Pence per litre as at February, 2015 Source: Table from QEP, March 2015
22 Electricity taxes in UK are very low Electricity Prices for Household Consumers, 2013 Source: IEA Energy Prices and Taxes In Table from QEP, March 2015, p.51.
23 Gas taxes in UK also low Natural Gas Prices for Household Consumers, 2013 Source: IEA Energy Prices and Taxes In Table from QEP, March 2015, p.55.
24 FUTURE PROSPECTS?
25 Impact of shale gas Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy, 2015, p.27. Source:
26 Technology may save us
27 Concluding comments International volatility in commodity prices. Tax and policy pressure upwards. Shale gas global impact uncertain. Clean energy services getting cheaper. Bills not necessarily the same as prices.
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