Understanding Crowd Behaviour Simulating Situated Individuals

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1 Understanding Crowd Behaviour Simulating Situated Individuals Nanda Wijermans

2 The research reported in this thesis was funded by the Netherlands Ministry of Defence ("DO-AIO" fund contract no TM-12). The research was carried out at TNO Defence, Security and Safety, business unit Human Factors, Soesterberg, The Netherlands and the university of Groningen, Faculty of Economics and Business, Groningen, The Netherlands. Published by: University of Groningen, Groningen, The Netherlands Printed by: Ipskamp Drukkers B.V. ISBN: c 2011 Nanda Wijermans All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reprinted or utilized in any form or by any electronic, mechanical or other means, now known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in any information storage or retrieval system, without written permission from the copyright owner.

3 RIJKSUNIVERSITEIT GRONINGEN Understanding Crowd Behaviour Simulating Situated Individuals Proefschrift ter verkrijging van het doctoraat in de Economie en Bedrijfskunde aan de Rijksuniversiteit Groningen op gezag van de Rector Magnificus, dr. E. Sterken, in het openbaar te verdedigen op donderdag 21 april 2011 om uur door Ferdinanda Elfrida Hubertina Wijermans geboren op 11 februari 1981 te s-gravenhage

4 Promotor: Copromotores: Beoordelingscommissie: Prof. dr. R.J.J.M. Jorna Dr. W. Jager Dr. A.J. van Vliet Prof. dr. R.J.F. van Haren Prof. dr. B.G. Silverman Prof. dr. K.G. Troitzsch

5 Contents 1 Introduction Why is understanding crowd behaviour important? Theoretical issues in understanding crowd behaviour Methodological issues in understanding crowd behaviour Understanding crowd behaviour Thesis map Crowd Behaviour Foundation of crowd behaviour The 7 myths of the traditional foundation A Reflection on the myths The modern foundation of crowd behaviour Existing models based on the modern foundation Flashpoint model ESIM model The initiation-escalation model of collective violence A reflection Conclusion Multi-level approach Individual as cognitive system CROSS -ATheoretical Crowd Model The group level The physical environment The social environment The individual level The cognitive level Architecture physiology Representations memory Processes perception and behaviour selection Translating context into the cognitive level Physical environment and the cognitive level Social environment and the cognitive level Conclusion... 59

6 4 Simulation to Understand Crowd Behaviour The scientific cycle How can simulation be used to understand crowd behaviour the phases of the CROSS model Phase 1 - from the real world to a theoretical model Phase 2 - from a theoretical to a computational model Phase 3 - from a computational to an experimental model Phase 4 - from experimental model to understanding the real world Conclusion The CROSS Model -AComputational Crowd Model Existing crowd models Computational crowd model Environment formalisation Agent formalisation Conclusion The Role of Density in Crowds The role of density The CROSS experiment model The density experiment variables Model settings Results Looking under the hood - the cognitive and individual levels The group level Discussion and conclusion The role of leadership in crowds The role of leadership The CROSS experiment model The leadership experiment variables Model settings Results Looking under the hood - the cognitive and individual levels The group level Discussion and conclusion Discussion and Conclusion Answering the research question The contribution of the CROSS model Crowd research Cognitive sciences Social sciences Computer science/simulations Practice Future

7 Bibliography 149 Summary 163 Samenvatting 167 A word of thanks 171

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