The Italian real estate market in the global investment context:

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1 The Italian real estate market in the global investment context: Returns, trends, ideas, protagonists and perspectives for the real estate asset class Milan 24 th April Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 1

2 Il Mercato Real Estate Italiano nel Panorama Globale degli Investimenti Rendimenti, tendenze, idee, protagonisti e prospettive per l asset class immobiliare 9:3 Registrazione partecipanti 1: Presentazione curata da IPD sul mercato immobiliare: Il contesto internazionale e il mercato immobiliare fra le alternative di investimento (Stephanie Galiegue, IPD) Il mercato immobiliare italiano: performance dell investimento diretto in real estate (Stefano Brasca, IPD) Fondi immobiliari italiani, rendimenti e caratteristiche (Giancarlo Cucini, IPD) 11: Sintesi e introduzione al panel: macro-trends per il real estate (Luigi Pischedda, IPD) 11:15 Tavola rotonda moderata da Gerardo Solaro del Borgo: Matteo Bosco, Aberdeen Asset Management Gian Luigi Costanzo Luigi Pischedda, IPD Francesco Sandrini, Pioneer Investments 12:3 Networking lunch 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 2

3 The global context and the real estate market among the investment alternatives Stephanie Galiegue IPD 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 3

4 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 4

5 IPD an MSCI brand More than 2 4 employees through 2 countries 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 5

6 MSCI Group companies MSCI products include the MSCI Global Equity Indices, MSCI ESG Indices and MSCI ESG Research products and services. Typically used for asset allocation, benchmarking and performance measurement, MSCI indices are also licensed as the basis for over 6 1 financial products. MSCI ESG Research provides indepth research, ratings and analysis of environmental, social and governancerelated business practices to companies worldwide. Barra equity and multiasset class portfolio analytics products and services help institutional investors manage their portfolios more effectively. Robust analytics are powered by a range of industryleading Barra factor models, and combined with advanced quantitative tools. RiskMetrics multi-asset, position-based risk and wealth management products and services enable clients to measure and quantify portfolio risk across security types, geographies and markets. RiskMetrics is well known for its Value at Risk methodologies, as well as being a leading provider of credit and counterparty risk systems. IPD products and services provide critical business intelligence to the real estate industry worldwide, including analytical services, indices and market information regarding performance and risk. Clients include real estate owners, investors, managers, lenders and occupiers. FEA energy and commodity asset valuation products offer a variety of quantitative analytics tools for valuing and modeling physical assets and derivatives across a number of market segments. They are used by institutional clients including energy firms, money center banks, Fortune 5 companies, trading enterprises, and leading financial firms. ISS governance research and outsourced proxy voting and reporting services help institutional investors and corporations around the world make more informed investment decisions on behalf of the owners of companies. 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 6

7 Investment allocation by country and size Across Europe, real estate retains its average 7% share of portfolios 1% 9% % 7% % 45 5% 4% 3% % 3 1% % Benelux Switzerland UK & Ireland Italy Nordic Countries All France Germany Source : EIAMS Average % of assets in current strategic asset allocation Real Estate Bonds Equity Short Term Others 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 7

8 Years 5 Years 1 Years The recovery continued in 212, albeit at a slower rate IPD Global Index % pa Capital growth Income return Total return 5-year annualised total return Source: IPD, KTI 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 8

9 South Africa Canada United States Australia New Zealand IPD Global Index Korea Switzerland Sweden Poland France Austria Finland Norway Czech Republic Germany Pan-European Denmark Japan Belgium UK Ireland Italy Netherlands Portugal Hungary Spain Regional split of strong & weak performance % pa Capital growth Income return Total return IPD Global Index Source: IPD, KTI 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 9

10 Where are we in the cycle 12 Resillient markets Recovering Marchés en markets reprise Lagging markets Autriche 1 Allemagne 9 Canada South Africa 9 Suède 9 Italie 8 Suisse 8 France 8 Pays-Bas 7 7 Australie 7 Portugal 6 6 USA 6 UK Espagne Irlande Source : IPD Capital return 27 is Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 1

11 Different results according to type of assets / countries % 212 Total return 15% 1% All assets 5% Industrial Lowest performance in Spain, highest in USA % -5% -1% Residential Strong performance Retail in France One exception in Europe Offices Different stories across Europe 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 11

12 Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Real Estate vs other asset classes in % 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% 212 Total Return Canada USA Australie France Allemagne Irlande UK Italie Sources : IPD, MSCI, JP Morgan Real Estate Equity Bonds 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 12

13 Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Immobilier Actions Obligations Real Estate vs other asset classes in longer term 35% 3% 25% 2% 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% 1 years Total Return Canada USA Australie France Allemagne Irlande UK Italie Sources : IPD, MSCI, JP Morgan Real Estate Equity Bonds 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 13

14 The Italian property market: direct real estate investment performance Stefano Brasca IPD 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 14

15 IPD Italian Universe Composition 12 months results to December 212 (%) Aberdeen Asset Management, Aedes BPM Real Estate Sgr, AEW Europe, Amundi Italia RE Sgr, Beni Stabili SIIQ, BNP Paribas REIM Sgr, CBRE Global Investors, Commerz Real AG, Corio Italia, Credit Suisse Asset Management, Deka Immobilien Investment, Deutsche Asset & Wealth Management, EstCapital Sgr, Fabrica Immobiliare Sgr, Generali Immobiliare Italia Sgr, IGD SIIQ, Ignis Asset Management, Internationales Immobilien-Institut, Investire Immobiliare Sgr, IVG Institutional Funds, JP Morgan, LaSalle Investment Management, Morgan Stanley, Polis Fondi Sgr, Pradera, Prelios Sgr, Prologis, Prudential Property Investment Managers, SEB Immobilien-Investment, Sonae Sierra, Standard Life Investments, The British Land Company, UBS Global Asset Management, WestInvest Gesellschaft für Immobilienfonds Universe composition as at December % 4.9 % 36. % 54.5 % Retail Office Industrial Other Source: IPD Italy Annual Index Universe composition historical breakdown Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 15

16 Headline Universe and Index figures 12 months results to December 212 (%) IPD Italian Universe Benchmark 1.7 % IPD Italian Index Standing Investments 1.5 % Excluding: Sales, Purchases, Developments and Properties with Part Transactions and Non-Market Standing Investments RE Equities Equities Government Bonds 27.7% 11.7% 24.8% Sources: IPD, MSCI, Italy DS Real Estate (RLESTIT), JP Morgan GBI Italy Index, HICP 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 16

17 Headline Universe and Index figures 12 months and 1yrs annualised results to December 212 (%) years performance 5 years performance 1 years performance Total Return 1.5% 3.6% 3.2% 5.9% RE Equities Equities Government Bonds Inflation 27.7% 11.7% 24.8% 2.6% -16.% -6.2% 4.9% 2.8% -2.4% -11.4% 6.2% 2.4% -4.4%.8% 5.2% 2.4% Income Return 5.9% 5.8% 5.6% 5.7% Capital Growth -4.1% -2.% -2.3%.1% Sources: IPD, MSCI, Italy DS Real Estate (RLESTIT), JP Morgan GBI Italy Index, HICP 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 17

18 Market performance trend time series Total return by type of investment last 1 years Source: IPD Italy Annual Index Retail Office Industrial All Properties 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 18

19 Latest Trends Italy Property Sectors - returns over the last 5 years Retail Office Industrial Capital Growth Income Return Total Return -8 Capital Growth Income Return Total Return -8 Capital Growth Income Return Total Return Source: IPD Italy Annual Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 19

20 Capital growth drivers Rents and yields time series, over the last 1yrs Yield impact Rental Value Growth Capital Growth Source: IPD Italy Annual Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 2

21 Capital Value Trend Change by asset All properties, Italy Universe (%) 1% 9% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% % Increase No Change Decrease As at Dec. 212 % increase = 1.8 % No Change = 39.3 % Decrease = 49.9 Source: IPD Italy Annual Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 21

22 Risk premium by sector vs. Italian bonds, 1 year Risk and return by sector time series 9 Retail vs. Italy Gov. Bonds (%) Real Estate Risk premium (%) Retail Office Industrial All property spread Retail initial yield 1 yr govt bond yield 9 1 yr Gbunds Rendistato Office vs. Italy Gov. Bonds (%) Industrial vs. Italy Gov. Bonds (%) spread Industrial initial yield 1 yr govt bond yield spread Industrial initial yield 1 yr govt bond yield 1 yr Gbunds Rendistato Source: IPD Italy Annual Index 1 yr Gbunds Rendistato 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 22

23 Income return analysis Time series over the last 1yrs Source: IPD Italy Annual Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 23

24 Income stream security profile Erosion of income due to lease expiries (% rent passing, year end) 1 All properties Trend All properties Trend Universe 212 Universe 211 Universe 21 Universe 29 Source: IPD Italy Annual Index Top Slice > 5 years Rent free unit Top Slice < 5 years Potential Vacancy 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 24

25 Income stream security profile Erosion of income due to lease expiries (% rent passing, year end) All sectors Dec. 212 All sectors Dec Retail Office 5 4 Industrial All properties All properties Retail Office Industrial Source: IPD Italy Annual Index Top Slice > 5 years Rent free unit Top Slice < 5 years Potential Vacancy 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 25

26 Lease Events: What happened at a break? Italy - All Properties All properties December 212 Total Vacant New Letting Renewed Retail 1.% 29.7% 35.6% 34.7% Office 1.% 23.1% 5.% 26.9% Industrial 1.% 5.% 25.% 25.% All Properties 1.% 27.4% 41.% 31.6% New Letting Dec. 212 Renewed Dec % 8.5% 36.5% 36.9% 56.3% 54.6% Rent passing > OMRV Rent Free Rent Passing < OMRV Sources: IPD Italy Annual Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 26

27 Italian real estate funds: features and performance Giancarlo Cucini IPD 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 27

28 IPD Italy Biannual Property Fund Index Factsheet, December 212 The IPD Italy Biannual Property Fund Index measures the overall fund performance monitoring NAV, dividend distribution and capital repayment IPD measures the performance with biannual frequency Total number of funds monitored as at December 212: 42 (17 Blind Pool vs 25 Seeded). Institutional funds: 2 vs Retail funds: 22 Total NAV: Euro 7.7 bn recording a decrease compared to June 212 (8. bn) New funds joining: Geo Ponente, Real Emerging and Real Energy 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 28

29 IPD Italy Biannual Property Fund Index Asset Allocation to end December 212, (%) Asset allocation by segment, (%) Asset allocation evolution by segment last 5 years, (%) 3,1 3,2 1 9, 1,8 2,5 Retail Office Industrial 8 Other 53,3 Residential Cash 6 Asset allocation by geografic area, (%) North West North East Centre South 11.6 Abroad Cash Residential Other Industrial Of f ice Retail Data sources: IPD Biannual Property Fund Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 29

30 IPD Italy Biannual Property Fund Index Headline figures - Total returns to December 212, (%) Retail Fund Index Instit. Fund Index Blind Fund Index Seeded Fund Index All Fund Index NAV Total Return 6 month 12 month 3 years 5 years Blind pool fund index Seeded Fund index Retail fund index Institutional fund index Balanced fund index Specialist fund index All fund index Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 3

31 Alternative investments comparison Property funds still weak...financial markets continue to rebound All Fund Index vs. Bonds (Returns, %) Equities vs. RE Equities (Returns, %) All Fund Index Bonds Equities RE Equities All Fund Index vs. Bonds (Index values) Equities vs. RE Equities (Index values) All Fund Index Bonds Equities RE Equities Data sources: MSCI, Italy DS Real Estate, JP Morgan GBI Italy Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 31

32 All Fund Index vs Alternative Investments Long term total returns, (%) All Fund Index Asset class total returns after world financial crisis Equities RE Equities Bonds NAV Total Return 3 years 5 years Equities ¹ Property equities ² Bonds ³ All fund index Data sources: 1: MSCI, 2: Italy DS Real Estate, 3: JP Morgan GBI Italy Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 32

33 IPD Italy Biannual Property Fund Index Capital return and Income return still weak drive the dip in Total return 15 11,9 1 9,4 9,8 8,5 6,8 5 1,5 5,2 6,5 1,8,1 1,7-1,4-5 -5,8-1 IR CR TR Data sources: IPD Biannual Property Fund Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 33

34 IPD Italy Biannual Property Fund Index Capital Return hits the worst performance, (%) 8 6,7 6, ,5 2,5 2,2 4,5 2,2 2,9 5,2 3, 3,4 4,8 4,8 4,2 4,2 2,9 1,4 1,2,5,3-1,1 -, ,6-2,2-3,7-6 IR CR TR Data sources: IPD Biannual Property Fund Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 34

35 IPD Italy Biannual Property Fund Index Income return and Gross Distribution Yield, (%) ,9 3,7 4,2 4,8 4,2 3,7 4,9 4,4 4,4 4,3 4,4 4,2 3 2,7 2,7 2,9 2,8 2 1,6 2,6 2,4 2,2 2,2 1,9 1,4,3 1,3 IR Gross Distr. Yield Data sources: IPD Biannual Property Fund Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 35

36 15, , , , , , , , ,267. 5, , , ,737. 5,53.6 5, , , ,16.5 1,38. 9, , ,1.8 8, , ,56.4 8, ,736.4 IPD Italy Biannual Property Fund Index Funds gearing evolution, (mln) 7 Fund Gearing 5 year time series 12 NAV Evolution, (mln) CV Evolution, (mln) All Fund Index Data sources: IPD Biannual Property Fund Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 36

37 IPD Italy Biannual Property Fund Index Fund gearing vs NAV TR, (%) 7 All Fund Index, (%) All Fund Index, (%) Gearing as a % NAV Gearing as a % CV Annual TR 3 year TR 5 year TR Fund gearing and total returns after world financial crisis, (%) Data sources: IPD Biannual Property Fund Index 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 37

38 International comparison Fund gearing vs NAV TR, (%) Gearing as a % NAV, All Fund Index All Fund Index 3 Year TR, (%) All Fund Index 5 Year TR, (%) Italy UK Pan European Fund gearing after world financial crisis, (%) 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 38

39 Wrap-up & introduction to the panel discussion Luigi Pischedda IPD 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 39

40 The investment case for property Is property an investment option? PROS. Real estate is an income producing asset The income return profile is relatively secure Property allows for active management Real estate is a portfolio diversifier Real estate has higher 1 year returns compared to other asset classes Real estate is less volatile than other asset classes Real estate is a hedge against inflation CONS. Property is a real asset, so it depreciates Property is a bulky asset, lump sum needed to achieve diversification Property is local, often needs local expertise Running costs 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 4

41 The investment case for property Correlation matrix: property vs. the rest of the world Correlation RE PFI Bonds Equity RE Equities RE 1. PFI.8 1. Bonds Equity RE Equities Correlation matrix (1 yrs total returns): Low correlation of real estate (RE and PFI) with other asset classes Negative correlation with bonds Low correlation of PFI vs. equities Source: IPD 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 41

42 The investment case for property Volatility of returns Source: IPD RE PFI Bonds Equity RE Equities TR TLI 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 42

43 The investment case for property Volatility of returns Source: IPD RE PFI TR TLI 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 43

44 1 yrs Annualised TR % The investment case for property Returns & risk: property vs. rest of the world RE RE TLI Bonds 4. PFI 2.. Equities Source: IPD RE Equities Standard deviation % 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 44

45 Macro-Trend 1: Asset owners Who owns today s assets and portfolios? 1% 9% % 7% % 45 5% 4% 3% % 3 1% % Benelux Switzerland UK & Ireland Italy Nordic Countries All France Germany Source : EIAMS Average % of assets in current strategic asset allocation Real Estate Bonds Equity Short Term Others 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 45

46 Macro-Trend 2: Globalisation Top down asset allocators see the big picture Total Return (%) 3 25 Spread IPD Global Index IPD Pan European Index Source: IPD 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 46

47 The Italian real estate market in the global investment context: Returns, trends, ideas, protagonists and perspectives for the real estate asset class Milan 24 th April Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 47

48 Il Mercato Real Estate Italiano nel Panorama Globale degli Investimenti Rendimenti, tendenze, idee, protagonisti e prospettive per l asset class immobiliare 9:3 Registrazione partecipanti 1: Presentazione curata da IPD sul mercato immobiliare: Il contesto internazionale e il mercato immobiliare fra le alternative di investimento (Stephanie Galiegue, IPD) Il mercato immobiliare italiano: performance dell investimento diretto in real estate (Stefano Brasca, IPD) Fondi immobiliari italiani, rendimenti e caratteristiche (Giancarlo Cucini, IPD) 11: Sintesi e introduzione al panel: macro-trends per il real estate (Luigi Pischedda, IPD) 11:15 Tavola rotonda moderata da Gerardo Solaro del Borgo: Matteo Bosco, Aberdeen Asset Management Gian Luigi Costanzo Luigi Pischedda, IPD Francesco Sandrini, Pioneer Investments 12:3 Networking lunch 213 Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 48

49 Contacts: Luigi Pischedda IPD Tel: +44 () Giancarlo Cucini IPD Tel: +44 () Stefano Brasca IPD Tel: +44 () Investment Property Databank Ltd. All rights reserved. ipd.com 49

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