THE EFFECTS OF THE MOTORCYCLE TRANSPORT REVOLUTION ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA, A CASE STUDY OF THIKA DISTRICT BY MBUGUA CHARLES (10/00697)

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1 THE EFFECTS OF THE MOTORCYCLE TRANSPORT REVOLUTION ON THE ECONOMIC GROWTH OF KENYA, A CASE STUDY OF THIKA DISTRICT BY MBUGUA CHARLES (10/00697) A Thesis Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Business Administration (Corporate Management) of the School of Business KCA University NOVEMBER, 2011

2 DECLARATION This Research Thesis is my original work and has not been submitted for a degree in any other university or Institution Mbugua Charles Sign: Date This Research Thesis has been submitted for examination with our approval as university Supervisor. Prof. Reuben Indiatsi Nasibi Sign: Date School of Business KCA University ii

3 DEDICATION This work is dedicated to my parents Mr.Joseph Mutari Karemeri and Mrs Esther Nyambura Mutari for inculcating in me a great desire to better the conditions of mankind. My wife, Winfred Mbugua and children, May Mbugua and Maxwell Mbugua for their love, patience and prayers during the arduous task. iii

4 ACKNOWLEDGEMENT This research has been completed with great assistance from several individuals and institutions. I will mention all a few of these. I am greatly indebted to my supervisor Prof. Reuben Indiatsi Nasibi for his insight, intellectual stimulation and advice all through the study. My sincere thanks to the boda boda associations in Thika, Kisumu, Kakamega, Ruai and Nakuru for great cooperation in getting in depth factual information on the subject of study I wish to thank Cerar Maja (Phd. London School of Economics) for her insight into the motorcycle revolution in Kenya and the potential in empowering the urban poor. I wish to express great gratitude to both the pioneering class and lecturers of MBA Corporate Management for their innovative thinking that propelled me to always see the bigger picture in research. iv

5 ABSTRACT Motorcycles pose interesting challenges in developing countries that are not faced by the rest of world.in the last fifteen years the numbers of motorcycles per capita in many developing nations has doubled.the vehicles provide an affordable mobility option that is not otherwise available. They provide door-to-door mobility, unmatched navigability in congested road conditions, ease of parking, capacity for passengers and luggage at low cost. With the recent escalation of petroleum prices, interest and use of motorcycles is growing worldwide. Compared with automobiles, motorcycles offer superior maneuverability, braking and acceleration that generally give their operators confidence to operate at higher speeds. The general objective of the study is to investigate the effects of motorcycle transport revolution on the economy in Kenya with reference to Thika town. Descriptive research was used to obtain information concerning the current status of the phenomena to describe what exists with respect to variables or conditions in the current situation. Purposive sampling was used to select 7 qualified medical personnel and 10 traffic police officers in the traffic department and 100 bikers in Thika town. Findings showed that 74.2% of the motorcycle taxi traders are youth.the study also showed that there was a marked improvement in the monthly earnings for the motorcycle taxi when compared with their earlier sources of income.there was an improvement in the livelihoods of 95.7% of the respondents. There is an ill effect on the health of the bikers and the highest medical condition was chest infection. v

6 TABLE OF CONTENTS BY... i DECLARATION... ii DEDICATION... iii ACKNOWLEDGEMENT... iv ABSTRACT... v TABLE OF CONTENTS... vi Chapter One Introduction Motorcycle Revolution Statement of the Problem Research Objectives General objective... Error! Bookmark not defined Specific objectives... Error! Bookmark not defined. 1.4 Research Questions Significance of the Study Scope and delimitations of the study Operational Definition of Terms... 8 Chapter Two Literature Review Introduction Effects of Motorcycle Revolution on economic growth Theoretical framework Collision Avoidance Models Conceptual Framework Source; Author (2011) Motorcycle and economic growth Traffic safety and health Motor cycle and traffic rules Economic Importance of Transportation Transportation and Economic Development Chapter Three Research Methodology Introduction Research Design Population of the study Sample size and Sampling Data Collection vi

7 3.7 Data Analysis and Presentation Chapter Four Data Analysis And Interpretation Introduction Chapter Five Summary, Conclusion And Recommendations Main finding objective Main finding objective Main finding objective Conclusions Recommendations Research limitation Areas of further study REFERENCES APPENDIX Appendixes A: Motorcycle Questionnaire Appendixes B: Traffic Police Questionnaire Thank you for your responses Appendixes C: Medics Questionnaire Appendixes D :Time Frame vii

8 LIST OF TABLES Table 1: DATA ON INJURIES RESULTING FROM MOTORCYCLES IN THIKA, Table 2: Sampling frame Table 3 : Response rate in percentage Table 4: Occupation before venturing into motorcycle taxi Table 5: Level of monthly salary/wage before venturing into motorcycle taxi Table 6: Amount earned per month from this business on average in Ksh Table 7: Belonging to any merry go round/saving scheme Table 8: Amount contributed per month in ksh Table 9 Benefits of the contributions to members Table 10: Have a group bank account Table 11: Impact of Motorcycle trade on livelihoods Table 12: Medical checkups per year that is brought by ill health by bikers Table 13: Health conditions suffered arising from continuous use of motorcycle Table 14: Specific health conditions in percentage Table 15: Medical attention on the condition/s in Table Table 16: Medical care sought for health conditions Table 17: Medical insurance cover Table 18: Medical officers report on most common health conditions resulting from motorcycle riding Table 19: Medical officers report on the main orthopaedic conditions in the wards resulting from motorcycle accidents Table 20: Receiving training on motorcycle riding by bikers Table 21: Traffic police feedback on training of bikers Table 22: Having an accident with the motorcycle Table 23: Safety measures for motorcyclists viii

9 Table 24: Category of road user causing motorcyclist to have an accident Table 25: The causes of motorcycle accidents according to the traffic police Table 26: Traffic police feedback on compliance with traffic rules by bikers Table 27: Possession of a valid driving license Table 28: Frequency of stopping motorcycles for inspection by traffic police Table 29: Distribution of respondent by age group ix

10 Chapter One 1.0 Introduction Motorcycles have become an indispensable part of every culture. Recent years have seen the reentry of many famous high quality bike manufacturers. In the past, motorcycles played a major role in the traffic in developing world. The great growth rate of motorcycle (for short, we will denote both motorcycle and motorcycle in the conception of motorcycle) has modified quickly the whole picture. Now, this kind of vehicle becomes more and more popular by its advantages. The road safety is worsened considerably with this motorization. The quantity of fatalities by traffic accidents now is 10 times of that in 5 years ago ( Vietnam Government, 2004). It is showed that between various modes of vehicles on road, the proportion of accidents caused by motorcycle seems extremely high: it reached from 72 % up to 80% of the total number (Vietnam Government, 2004). Among all four basic factors that can lead to traffic accidents: road user, road system, vehicle and environment; the most important is road user, especially, the drivers. It is widely understood that transport technology and urban form are inextricably intertwined. The transport networks of ancient cities reflect an entirely pedestrian and equestrian scale. With the advent of mechanized transport, the networks and scale of cities grew in the 19 th century as more dispersed travel was facilitated by trains and trams. The arrival of the automobile in the 20 th century further accelerated the centrifugal impact of transport on city form, creating sprawl and introducing unintended impacts on environmental quality and social integration. Cities expanding in the 21 st century have the opportunity to learn from the experiences of those cities born since the rise of mechanized transport to improve balance and overall performance of the urban transport network. The opportunities to plan cities with more balanced transport are greatest where cities and urban populations are still developing. 1

11 The design of cities and transport networks paid little, or no, attention to the impacts of human development on the underlying health of the natural environment. It was tacitly assumed that the capacity of the earth to absorb our waste and provide us with resources is essentially boundless. As human populations have skyrocketed we have recognized this fallacy and must now plan development in a more sustainable manner mindful of the impacts that human activity can have on the basic mechanics of the ecosystem. Twentyfirst century cities and transport networks must be more sustainable with less impact on the atmosphere and the balance of the natural world. This sustainable condition may be easier to achieve in cities that are not yet fully established, when compared with established cities born during the global motorization boom that occurred in the second half of the 20 th century. Motorcycles pose interesting challenges in developing countries that are not faced by the rest of world (Perco, World Bank, 2008). In the last fifteen years the numbers of motorcycles per capita in many developing nations has doubled (World Bank, 2006). The vehicles are attractive as incomes of families in the region rise, providing an affordable mobility option that is not otherwise available. They provide door-to-door capability, unmatched navigability in congested road conditions, ease of parking, capacity for passengers and luggage at low cost. Elsewhere, with the recent escalation of petroleum prices, interest and use of motorcycles is growing worldwide. Compared with automobiles, motorcycles offer superior maneuverability, braking and acceleration that generally give their operators confidence to operate at higher speeds. Studies indicate that compared with automobiles, motorcycles offer superior maneuverability, braking and acceleration that generally give their operators confidence to operate at higher speeds. Studies indicate that motorcycles tend to operate at average speeds 10 kph faster than autos using the same streets and roadways (Perco 2008). Approximately one-quarter of urban trips in Developing Asia are made with nonmotorized modes. However, the fraction of non-motorized trips is generally decreasing where street space is scarce and competition from proliferating motorized modes makes non-motorized travel less safe. Non motorized trips are especially vulnerable to displacement from mixed traffic streets. Public policies in some cities have shifted in the last few decades to discourage some or all non-motorized modes. Increased motorization, 2

12 in all nations, has tended to reduce the utility and availability of street network space for non-motorized transport. As a result, walking and cycling everywhere is much more dangerous (Badami, 2007) Motorcycle Revolution Motorcyclists have an especially poor safety record when compared to other road user groups. Their killed and serious injury rate in the UK, per million vehicle kilometers, is approximately twice that of pedal cyclists and over 16 times that of car drivers and passengers. Motorcyclists make up less than 1% of vehicle traffic but their riders suffer 14% of total deaths and serious injuries on Britain s roads (DETR, 2000). In 1999 a motorcyclist was killed or seriously injured for every 665,894 kilometers ridden. Car drivers, however, covered an average of 18,661,626 kilometers before a serious injury or death occurred. According to these figures, in 1999 motorcyclists were approximately 28 times more likely to be killed or seriously injured on the roads in Great Britain than car drivers. Chesham et al. (1993) compared distance travelled with injuries sustained and found that in 1990 a motorcyclist was 35 times more likely to be killed or seriously injured than a car driver. Although the figures have improved over the last 10 years, the risk factor for motorcyclists when compared to car drivers is still very high. It is important to remember that, compared in an accident; a motorcyclist is much more vulnerable to personal injury than a car driver. Safety and accident avoidance for motorcyclists is therefore of paramount importance. A similar picture is given by research in other countries. Motorcycle riders in New Zealand accounted for approximately 20% of fatalities and 25% of hospitalizations for road traffic accidents as a whole, but motorcycles represented only 5% of licensed vehicles and accounted for only 1.4% of estimated total vehicle mileage in that country (Reeder et al., 1999). Young male riders, in particular, were identified as a problem; riders aged years accounted for 67% of all motorcycle accident fatalities. This led to the introduction of a graduated licensing scheme in New Zealand, which has reportedly reduced casualties in the target group of year olds by 22%, though this mainly occurred by reducing that groups overall exposure to motorcycle riding. Research in Norway by Kopjar (1999) investigated young riders moped accidents, the use of mopeds 3

13 in that country apparently being relatively widespread in the year old age group. Kopjar (1999) discovered that moped-related accidents accounted for 50% of hospitalizations for traffic accidents as a whole, and that 43% of moped accidents were single vehicle incidents. He concluded that moped injuries were a serious problem in late adolescence, and that road safety professionals often overlooked the moped problem. 1.2 Statement of the Problem Very little research has been done in this country on the impact of the motorcycle revolution.this is irrespective of whether the impacts are positive or negative. Many of the users of motorcycles for motorcycle taxi business, however, are from the majorly poor population of Kenyans. In virtually all the urban areas there has been an upsurge in the use of motorcycle taxis as a mode of transport for both human beings and goods.the resplendent problem of urban growth of having gridlock jams has necessitated the quick solution of using motorcycles as an alternative mode of transport as a solution to quick mobility. Majority of the feeder roads into estates and peri urban settlements are not navigable by other modes of public transport.the motorcycle is able to navigate these roads with ease thus emerging as the main choice of transport. With the lure of quick monetary gains on a daily basis,majority of the urban and peri urban poor have embraced this mode of transport as a household solution to their livelihoods.they have therefore readily gone into the business without due training in terms of business management and training on driving and traffic rules.this has resulted in a high rate of accidents.these accidents have deleterious effects on the bikers,passengers and other road users.most of the victims are poor and have no accident cover insurances or health insurance cover.this results in the depletion of the minimal resources the households have as they sell some of their property to get medical services.in some cases the bikers are unable to repay the loans procured to purchase the motorcycles thus losing their only source of income. The large number of motorcycle taxis points to a propoor economic activity that has the opportunity of bettering the livelihoods of the urban poor through micro financing 4

14 activities.most have saving schemes that are not elaborate thus losing the opportunity to use economies of scale to better their livelihoods. Table 1: DATA ON INJURIES RESULTING FROM MOTORCYCLES IN THIKA, 2011 DATA ON INJURIES RESULTING FROM MOTORCYCLE ACCIDENTS IN THIKA,2011 jan. feb. march april may june july aug sept Totals fatal serious slight victims monthly totals cumulative totals Source: Thika Traffic Police, The number of fatalities as at 30 th September, 2011 was 84 and the serious injuries were 107.Thus over 60% of the accidents resulted in serious or fatal injuries. Motorcycle accidents have somewhat different characteristics when compared with other vehicle groups, accidents involving running off the road on bends, and accidents that are related specifically to the sort of manoeuvres that motorcycles can perform, overtaking other traffic without crossing the centre line or filtering between lines of traffic. Preusser et al. (1995) found that a subset of fatal motorcycle accidents with characteristics similar to these accounted for around 85% of the total, in a sample of over 2,000 such accidents. Chesham et al. (1993) reviewed the changing focus of research activity in the area of motorcycle safety. They found two main periods of time with a different emphasis. The 5

15 first period was based on actual accident analysis in which control factors that contribute to the severity of motorcycle accidents were examined (such as drink driving). In most urban areas in Kenya there is a marked increase in the use of motorcycles as a mode of transport. Currently Nakuru municipality has got 6000 registered motor cycle operators. The times of operations though variable depending on the urban area, range between 4 am to 11pm though there are areas where they operate 24 hours like Nakuru and Kisumu. Previous researchers have identified various problems related with the revolution of motorcycle in various part of the world ranging from health related problems, increase in crime rate as they are used to ferry gangs, motorcycles flouting traffic regulations, overload by carrying more than one passenger and increased road accidents among others. To the researcher knowledge no known local study has ever been conducted in Kenya to evaluate the various effects of motorcycle revolution in Kenya and various problems associated with it, this study seeks to fill the existing research gap by conducting a study on the effects of motorcycle revolution in Kenya with special reference to Thika town. 1.3 Research Objectives The general objective of the study was to investigate the effects of motorcycle revolution on the economic growth in Kenya with reference to Thika town. The specific objectives were: To establish the effect of motorcycle revolution on economic growth To evaluate the effects of motorcycle revolution on health and safety To determine the effect of motorcycle revolution on traffic rules. 1.4 Research Questions What are the effects of motorcycle revolution on economic growth? How does motorcycle revolution affect health and safety of users? What is the effect of motorcycle e revolution on traffic rules? 6

16 1.5 Significance of the Study It will be of great of importance to various stakeholders in the motorcycle industry in Kenya. It will help motorcycle users in knowing the various risks involved in using the motorcycle as a mode of transport, as the study has documented the various health risks involved in using motorcycle as means of transport. It will be of great importance to the traffic police department in the country as it has sought to determine various problems of motorcycle revolution associated with flouting of traffic regulations, this will help the traffic department in coming up with regulations and policies that will reduce motorcycle accidents and ensure adherence with traffic rules. The findings will help various government agencies in coming up with strategies that will reduce level of road accidents associated with motorcycle in Kenya, as these accidents negatively affect the economy, this will have positive impact on the country s economy. The findings will help micro financing institutions set in place training programs to enhance the economic liberation of hundreds of thousands of motorcycle traders across the country as a social enterprise transformation. The study will be of great importance to motorcycle manufacturing firms in addressing the issue of safety in relation to protective gear and sensitization of users on the use of the gear. This study will be of significance to motorcycle owners on the need to upscale their SACCOs so as to have financial mobility of plausible investment into shuttle transport systems in the Greater Nairobi Metropolis among other investments. It is significant to note that the insurance industry and particularly the emerging micro insurance industry will benefit in knowing the great investment opportunities benefit in the motorcycle transport economy. This study will be of significance to driving schools in relation to the training of motorcyclists. More significant will be the lessons learnt by the ministry of public health and the community at large from the findings of the research 7

17 1.6 Scope and delimitations of the study The study examined the effects of motorcycle revolution in Kenya with references to Thika town; the target population had respondents who included bikers in Thika town, medics from Thika municipal hospital and traffic police officers from the traffic police department in Thika. The study looked at various effects of motorcycle revolution including their contribution to economic growth, the health and safety aspects and effects on traffic rules. The effect of motorcycle transport on users other than the motorcycle taxi businessmen was not undertaken. This could have added more information and insight into the effects of the motorcycle transport revolution. The effects of the motorcycle transport revolution on security was not undertaken.there has been several cases in the country where crimes have been committed with the mode of transport used by the criminals being the motorcycle as a disguise owing to the rare case of flagging down by traffic police officers. 1.7 Operational Definition of Terms Economic development; economic and social opportunities and benefits that result in positive multipliers effects such as better accessibility to markets, employment and additional investments. Cities on the move; Cities in the developing world are growing rapidly; with this growth comes increased traffic. Level of service (LOS); is a measure used by traffic engineers to determine the effectiveness of elements of transportation infrastructure. LOS is most commonly used to analyze highways by categorizing traffic flow with corresponding safe driving conditions. Motorcycle: a single-track, two-wheeled motor vehicle. Motorcycles vary considerably depending on the task for which they are designed, such as long distance 8

18 travel, navigating congested urban traffic, cruising, sport and racing, or off-road conditions. Motorcyclists: People who ride motorcycles, including off-road. Passengers are called riders. Traffic safety: is an indication of how safe individual users are on some particular road, or on the roads belonging to some region. The main danger to road users is the likelihood of a traffic collision. Motorcycle Accidents: motorcycle accidents often result in severe injuries to the operator and any passenger. Because insurance companies often blame the operator for some type of fault, it is important to know your legal rights. Road traffic safety: an indication of how safe individual users are on some particular road, or on the roads belonging to some region. The main danger to road users is the likelihood of a traffic collision. Per million vehicle kilometers: this is the number of kilometers occupied by one million vehicles 9

19 Chapter Two. 2.0 Literature Review 2.1 Introduction It is widely understood that transport technology and urban form are inextricably intertwined. The design of cities and transport networks paid little, or no, attention to the impacts of human development on the underlying health of the natural environment. It was tacitly assumed that the capacity of the earth to absorb our waste and provide us with resources is essentially boundless. As human populations have skyrocketed we have recognized this fallacy and must now plan development in a more sustainable manner mindful of the impacts that human activity can have on the basic mechanics of the ecosystem. Twenty-first century cities and transport networks must be more sustainable with less impact on the atmosphere and the balance of the natural world. Urban travelers in the Developing countries make only 10% of trips by private automobile but nearly one quarter by motorcycle.outside this region the motorcycle mode share is so low as to be statistically negligible. Latin America urban transport is dominated by shared public modes. In North America, the car is king. In Europe, with many cities from the preindustrial age, travel by non-motorized modes is greatest. Two in five urban trips in Europe are made by non-motorized means. Motorcycles pose interesting challenges in Developing countries that are not faced by the rest of world. Motorcycle comprise 95% of the nation s private motor vehicle fleet in Vietnam, 84% in Asia, 76% in Cambodia, 28% in Italy and only 4% in the United States (Perco, World Bank, 2008). In the last fifteen years the numbers of motorcycles per capita in many Developing Asian nations has doubled (World Bank, 2006). The vehicles are attractive as incomes of families in the region rise, providing an affordable mobility option that is not otherwise available. They provide door-to-door mobility, unmatched navigability in congested road conditions, ease of parking, capacity for passengers and luggage at low cost.. In mixed traffic with automobiles, each bike tends to use as much 10

20 roadway capacity as an auto at congestion levels above Level of Service F. But when roads are most congested and traffic is slowed to crawl, motorcycle speeds and throughput are much higher than automobiles stuck in the same traffic. The proliferation of two- and three-wheeled motorcycles has raised problems with air quality and safety. Their two-cycle engines are inexpensive, easy to maintain, and make efficient use of fuel but are not clean burning. The crashworthiness and stability of the vehicles are an obvious concern that tends to dominate much of the urban transport literature concerning these vehicles. In Developing countries, pedestrians and cyclists count for the majority of road accident deaths despite the fact that they contribute the least to them (Badami, 2007). 2.2 Effects of Motorcycle Revolution on economic growth Motorcyclists have an especially poor safety record when compared to other road user groups. Their killed and serious injury rate per million vehicle kilometres is approximately twice that of pedal cyclists and over 16 times that of car drivers and passengers. Motorcyclists make up less than 1% of vehicle traffic but their riders suffer 14% of total deaths and serious injuries on Britain s roads (DETR, 2000). Chesham et al. (1993) compared distance travelled with injuries sustained and found that in 1990 a motorcyclist was 35 times more likely to be killed or seriously injured than a car driver. Although the figures have improved over the last 10 years, the risk factor for motorcyclists when compared to car drivers is still very high. It is important to remember that, compared in an accident; a motorcyclist is much more vulnerable to personal injury than a car driver. Safety and accident avoidance for motorcyclists is therefore of paramount importance. A similar picture is given by research in other countries. Motorcycle riders in New Zealand accounted for approximately 20% of fatalities and 25% of hospitalizations for road traffic accidents as a whole, but motorcycles represented only 5% of licensed vehicles and accounted for only 1.4% of estimated total vehicle mileage in that country (Reeder et al., 1999). Young male riders, in particular, were identified as a problem; 11

21 riders aged years accounted for 67% of all motorcycle accident fatalities. This led to the introduction of a graduated licensing scheme in New Zealand, which has reportedly reduced casualties in the target group of 15 to 19 year olds by 22%, though this mainly occurred by reducing that groups overall exposure to motorcycle riding. Kopjar (1999) investigated young riders moped accidents, the use of mopeds Norway apparently being relatively widespread in the 16 to 17 year old age group. Kopjar discovered that moped-related accidents accounted for 50% of hospitalizations for traffic accidents as a whole, and that 43% of moped accidents were single vehicle incidents. He concluded that moped injuries were a serious problem in late adolescence, and that road safety professionals often overlooked the moped problem. Chesham et al. (1993) reviewed the changing focus of research activity in the area of motorcycle safety. They found two main periods of time with a different emphasis. The first period covering the 1970s was based on actual accident analysis in which control factors that contribute to the severity of motorcycle accidents were examined (such as drink driving). The second period in the 1980s considered the actual process of motorcycle riding, focusing on, for example, rider skills. They go on to say that the 1990s brought a third area of consideration in which riders beliefs and attitudes about road safety are being considered. Mannering and Grodsky (1995) point out several reasons why the characteristics of motorcycle accidents differ from those of other vehicles. Firstly, they claim car drivers tend to be inattentive with regard to motorcyclists and have conditioned themselves to look only for other cars as possible collision dangers. Motorcyclists themselves often repeat anecdotal stories of the car driver s sorry I didn t see you explanation for collisions. Secondly, Mannering and Grodsky (1995) also claim that motorcycle operation is typically a more complex task than car driving, requiring excellent motor skills, physical co-ordination and balance. Motorcycle riding can also involve counterintuitive skills, such as counter-steering, simultaneous application of mechanically separate front and rear brakes, and opening the throttle while negotiating turns. Any impairment (for example, from medication or alcohol) would therefore more 12

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