MACRO Coyuntura. Dirección de Estudios Económicos. 1 Dirección de Estudios Económicos

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1 MACRO Coyuntura Dirección de Estudios Económicos 1 Dirección de Estudios Económicos

2 2 Dirección de Estudios Económicos h

3 Estados Unidos Dirección de Estudios Económicos 3 Dirección de Estudios Económicos

4 p Mundial North America Canada Estados Unidos Latin America Argentina Chile Brasil Panama Medio Oriente Saudi Arabia United Arab Emirates I.R of Iran Europa Creciemientos del PIB (%A/A) France Germany Netherlands Spain Italy United Kingdom Asia China India Vietnam Cambodia Japón *** Actualizados al 20 de enero del 2015 (un decimal) 4 Dirección de Estudios Económicos

5 Estados Unidos: Actividad Económica PIB (AE) billion of dollars 17,200 16,200 15,200 14,200 13,200 PIB (AE) Billiones de Dólares PIB 1T-13 16,502 2T-13 16,619 3T-13 16,872 4T-13 17,078 1T-14 17,044 2T-14 17,328 3T-14 17,600 4T-14 17,704 1T-15 17, Fuente: Bureau of Economic Analysis ISM Manufacturero y No-Manufacturero (AE) ISM Manufacturero Fuente: Institute for Supply Management ISM No-manufacturero Monthly ISM Manufacturero y No-Manufacturero Manufacturero No-Manufacturero a m j j a s o n d e f m a Dirección de Estudios Económicos

6 Estados Unidos: Actividad Económica % Gross Domestic Product (% T/T) Gross Domestic Product ( %T/T) ( % A/A) 1T T T T T Gross Domestic Product Fuente: Bureau of Economic Analysis % Gross Domestic Product (% A/A) Gross Output of Private Industries (%A/A) Mining Construction Manufact. 1T T T T T Gross Domestic Product Fuente: Bureau of Economic Analysis 6 Dirección de Estudios Económicos

7 Coincident Economic Coincident Economic Activity Mes % A/A % M/M 165 a m j j a s o n d e Coincident Economic Activity for the United States f m Fuente: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia a # DIV/0! Leading Leading for the United States Fuente: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Estados Unidos: Actividad Económica Leading Mes % A/A % M/M a m j j a s o n d e f m a Dirección de Estudios Económicos

8 Estados Unidos: Actividad Económica ISM Imports ISM Exports ISM Manufacturing: Imports Average Movil 2 Months Fuente: Institute for Supply Management ISM Manufacturing: New Export Orders Average Movil 2 Months Fuente: Institute for Supply Management ISM Imports ISM Exports Mes Índice Mes Índice a a m m j j j j a a s s o o n n d d e e f f m m a a Dirección de Estudios Económicos

9 Estados Unidos: Actividad Económica Industrial Production and Manufacturing Real Exports and Imports of goods and services billion dollars Industrial Production: Manufacturing Real Imports of Goods & Services Real Exports of Goods & Services Fuente: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System Fuente: Census Bureau Industrial Production and Manufacturing Balance of Payments Basis Industrial Manufacturing Exports Balance CA Monthly Mes billion dollars billion dollars a a-14 1, m m-14 1, j j-14 1, j j-14 1, a a-14 1, s s-14 1, o o-14 1, n n-14 1, d d-14 1, e e-15 1, f f-15 1, m m-15 1, a a Dirección de Estudios Económicos

10 Estados Unidos: Housing Market Month supply Supply of Homes Monthly Supply of Homes in the United States S&P Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Fuente: National Association of Realtors y Census Bureau Fuente: S&P Dow Jones Indices LLC Annuall Rate Variation Home Price Existing Home Sales Home Supply Mes % A/A % A/A Mes % A/A % M/M a a m m j j j j a a s s o o n n d d e e f f m m a a Dirección de Estudios Económicos

11 Estados Unidos: Consumo 400,000 Ventas al Menudeo 100 Consumer Sentiment million of dollars 380, , , , , ,000 University of Michigan: Consumer Sentiment Average Movil 2 Months Fuente: Census Bureau Fuente: University of Michigan Retail Sales Consumer Sentiment Mes % A/A % M/M Mes % A/A % M/M a a m m j j j j a a s s o o n n d d e e f f m m a a Dirección de Estudios Económicos

12 Estados Unidos: Employment 10 Tasa de Desempleo (AE) Civilian Labor force Participation 9 65 % % Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate Tasa de desempleo 2 per. media móvil (Tasa de desempleo) 2 per. media móvil (Civilian Labor Force Participation Rate) Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics Civilian Unemployment rate Employment month %M/M %A/A month Non-Manuf ( % M/M/ Manuf ( % M/M/ a a m m j j j j a a s s o o n n d d e e f f m m a a Dirección de Estudios Económicos

13 Estados Unidos: Demand and Supply milliion of dollars Export : Oil drilling, mining, and construction machinery, and equipment million of dollars Import : Oil drilling, mining, and construction machinery, and equipment Fuente: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau Fuente: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau Exports of goods Imports of goods Mes (% M/M) Mes (% M/M) j j j j a a s s o o n n d d e e f f m m a a m m j j Dirección de Estudios Económicos

14 Estados Unidos: Demand and Supply billions of dollars Government consumption expenditures (AE ) Fuente: Bureau of Economic Analysis Government consumption expenditures (AE; % T/T) (% A/A) Public 1T T T T T billions of dollars Real consumption of fixed capital (AE ) Fuente: Bureau of Economic Analysis Real consumption of fixed capital (AE; % T/T) (% A/A) Público 1T T T T T Dirección de Estudios Económicos

15 Estados Unidos: Demand and Supply milliion of dollars Export : Oil drilling, mining, and construction machinery, and equipment million of dollars Import : Oil drilling, mining, and construction machinery, and equipment Fuente: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau Fuente: U.S. Department of Commerce: Census Bureau Exports of goods Imports of goods Mes (% M/M) Mes (% M/M) a a m m j j j j a a s s o o n n d d e e f f m m a a Dirección de Estudios Económicos

16 Estados Unidos: Demand and Supply billions of dollars Real Personal Consumption Expenditures (AE ) Private Final Consumption Expenditure (AE; % T/T) (% A/A) Private 1T T T T T billion of dollars Fuente: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Personal saving rate Personal Saving Mes 1,500 a ,300 m ,100 j j a s o n d e f m Fuente: Bureau of Economic Analysis a % T/T 16 Dirección de Estudios Económicos

17 Estados Unidos: Finanzas Públicas million of dollars 17,000,000 15,000,000 13,000,000 11,000,000 9,000,000 Federal Debt: Total Public Debt % Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product 7,000, Federal Debt: Total Public Debt Federal Debt: Total Public Debt as Percent of Gross Domestic Product Fuente: Bureau of the Fiscal Service Fuente:The White House: Office of Management and Budget Real Private Fixed Investment Real Private Fixed Investment (% T/T) (% A/A) (% T/T) (% A/A) 1T T T T T T T T T T Dirección de Estudios Económicos

18 Estados Unidos: Finanzas Públicas 4,100 3,900 Federal government total expenditures 2,200 2,000 Federal government current tax receipts Billion of dollars 3,700 3,500 3,300 3,100 2,900 2,700 Billion of dollars 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 2,500 1,000 Fuente: Bureau of Economic Analysis Fuente: Bureau of Economic Analysis Federal government total expenditures Contributions to Percent Change in Real GDP by Government % T/T % A/A (AE; % T/T) (% A/A) 1T T T T T T T T T T Dirección de Estudios Económicos

19 Estados Unidos: Sector Externo U.S. Exports of Goods to Mexico U.S. Imports of Goods from Mexico million of dollars 18,000 13,000 million of dollars 22,000 17,000 8,000 12,000 U.S. Exports of Goods to Mexico, f.a.s. basis Average Movil 2 Months U.S. Imports of Goods from Mexico, Customs Basis Average Movil 2 Months Fuente: Bureau of Economic Analysis Fuente: Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. Exports of Goods to Mexico U.S. Imports of Goods from Mexico million of dollars million of dollars Mes (% M/M) (% A/A) Mes (% M/M) (% A/A) a a m m j j j j a a s s o o n n d d e e f f m m a a Dirección de Estudios Económicos

20 Estados Unidos: Sector Externo billion of dollars Real Net Exports of Goods & Services % Shares of gross domestic product: Net exports of goods and services Fuente: Bureau of Economic Analysis Fuente: Bureau of Economic Analysis Real Net Exports of Goods & Services % GDP. Net exports of goods and services (% T/T) (% A/A) (% T/T) (% A/A) 1T T T T T T T T T T Dirección de Estudios Económicos

21 Estados Unidos: Sector Externo i) Import (End Use): Petroleum and petroleum products Import (End Use): Petroleum and petroleum products Average Movil 2 Months ii) Import (End Use): Industrial supplies and materials excluding petroleum Import (End Use): Industrial supplies and materials excluding petroleum Average Movil 2 Months Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics iii) Import (End Use): All imports excluding petroleum (i) (ii) (iii) Mes a m j j a s Import (End Use): All imports excluding petroleum o n Average Movil 2 Months d Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics e f m a Dirección de Estudios Económicos

22 Estados Unidos: Sector Externo Export (End Use): Agricultural commodities Export (End Use): Petroleum and petroleum products Export (End Use): Agricultural commodities Export (End Use): Petroleum and petroleum products Average Movil 2 Months Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics Productos Agrícolas Productos del Petroleo Mes (% M/M) (% A/A) month (% M/M) (% A/A) a a m m j j j j a a s s o o n n d d e e f f m m a a Dirección de Estudios Económicos

23 Estados Unidos: Precios y Tasas Índice (1) (2) (3) Inflation -0.1 number 7,000,000 6,500,000 6,000,000 5,500,000 5,000,000 4,500,000 4,000,000 3,500,000 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) Consumer Price for All Urban Consumers: All Items Continued Claims (Insured Unemployment) Tasa Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate (M/M) 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate Mes Annual InflationUnemplyment rate a m j j a s o n d e f m Fuente: Bureau of Labor Statistics a Dirección de Estudios Económicos

24 Estados Unidos: Precios y Tasas Consumer Price for All Urban Consumers: All Items % Tasa de Interés Tasa Efectiva de los Fondos Federales Tasa de los Bonos del Tesoro Consumer Price for All Urban Consumers: All Items 0.0 CPI Tasa de Interés Mes % T/T month EFF Treasury Bills a a m m j j j j a a s s o o n n d d e e f f m m a a Dirección de Estudios Económicos

25 Commodities Dirección de Estudios Económicos 25 Dirección de Estudios Económicos

26 Commodities: Alimentos Alimentos Soya ($/mt) Maíz 0.9 Azucar ($/mt) ($/kg) Dirección de Estudios Económicos

27 Commodities: Energía ïndice Energía ($/bbl) Petroleo Crudo 40 ($/bbl) Carbon Gas Natural 27 Dirección de Estudios Económicos

28 Commodities: Metales Índice Metales 10,000 9,000 8,000 Cobre ($/mt) 7,000 6,000 5, ,000 3, ($/troy oz) 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1, Oro ($/troy oz) Plata 28 Dirección de Estudios Económicos

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