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1 Analisi e Gestione del Rischio nella Supply Chain Enza Messina Università di Milano-Bicocca Seminario Tecnologie Informatiche e SCM Università degli Studi di Milano-Bicocca 18 settembre 2003 Introduction The objective is too often aimed at simply minimizing the total supply chain cost of meeting fixed and given demand over a future planning horizon Not at maximizing net revenues by letting sales vary Coordination between supply chain and demand management is needed Data-driven optimization models are increasingly employed 18 Settembre

2 Raw Materials RM Supplier Products Technology Types Products DC Products RM Supplier Site DC Site DC RM Supplier RMs Sites DCs CZs 18 Settembre Methodologies to address uncertainty Scenario Planning Scenarios are defined as focused descriptions of fundamentally different futures presented in coherent narratives Helps managers compensate for overconfidence and tunnel vision Stochastic Programming Risk Management 18 Settembre

3 Stochastic Programming Extension of deterministic models to explicitly model the uncertainties associated with multiple scenarios The stochastic model considers the ensemble of all scenarios, each with an associated probability It identifies an optimal contingency plan for each scenario and a here-and and-now now plan that optimally hedges against these contingencies Here-and and-now now refers to short-term term decisions that must be made before uncertainties occurs It allows to impose constraints reflecting their judgment of the risks associated with the firm s performance under various scenarios 18 Settembre End User Groups SC Application SC Models Modelling System Computation: Algorithmic Solutions End User Groups End User End User Internet, WAN, Other NET SC Application Data Mart SC Models Modelling System Computation: Algorithmic Solutions DSS 1 Data Mart DSS 2 18 Settembre

4 OSP Supply Chain Analysis of the supply chain data The user can analyse and edit the current supply chain data and therefore browse the supply chain database to view the information on: Factories Products Configurations Demand Inventory The underlying stochastic programming model enables the presence multiple demand patterns which can be grouped into scenarios. 18 Settembre Optimisation of the supply chain The optimisation of the supply chain using the selected data is the main computational task in the supply chain DSS. The user can select amongst a set of features to be added to or removed from the underlying supply chain model. Choice of Strategic or Tactical model Allow inventory Allow shortages and carryover of demand Allow extracapacity Allow extrainventory 18 Settembre

5 Analysis of the optimum decision data Once the user has optimised the supply chain using the current data, the results (optimum decisions) can be viewed and analysed according to the following groups: Production Quantities Configurations Inventory Sales Profits and Costs analysis If the demand data includes more than one scenario, then the profit and costs can be analysed for each scenario (scenario analysis). 18 Settembre Risk Management SP Models have been recently been proposed as tools to assist in identifying real options as alternatives to financial options Operational risk management strategies can be more effective that ones that rely solely on financial risk management Firm s downside risk can be reduced by operational responses to varying demand and price scenarios 18 Settembre

6 e-commerce & flexible pricing The advent of the e-commerce e impacted the way business price their goods and services Prices can be based on customer characteristics : differential pricing or dynamically determined depending on demand: dynamic pricing 18 Settembre Flexible pricing requires tight integration between the buy and sell sides with the capability of real-time updates to key operational data flows 18 Settembre

7 Flexible Pricing Revenue management: determine pricing policies Procurement management: determine what components should be procured through this channel and at what quantities Supply chain coordination: price as a control variable demand forecasting becomes a much more complex process that needs to be coupled with the pricing process Supply-chain partners can also use dynamic pricing to reduce excess inventory in the supply chain Decision Analysis Systems: multi-criteria decision systems, visual analysis capabilities 18 Settembre Discussions Barriers that impedes the acceptance of data-driven driven models Creation and maintenance of decision databases. Scenario generation. Pricing policies definitions. Visual analysis systems. 18 Settembre

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