Celeste Saulo Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CONICET/UBA) Buenos Aires, Argentina
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1 Celeste Saulo Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CONICET/UBA) Buenos Aires, Argentina
2 Agenda: CHFP archive: progress and status (C. Saulo) CHFP analysis: activity so far (C. Saulo, B. Kirtman, A. Scaife) Documenting the archive in a peer reviewed study: results so far, which data, designation of tasks, CLIVAR Exchanges Special Issue(All) Evolution of CHFP (C. Saulo and F. Doblas-Reyes) Current status A predictability analysis CHFP and WCRP future research activities Celeste Saulo - WGSIP15 Hamburg, Germany, September
3 8 models available Celeste Saulo - WGSIP15 Hamburg, Germany, September
4 Celeste Saulo - WGSIP15 Hamburg, Germany, September
5 Celeste Saulo - WGSIP15 Hamburg, Germany, September
6 CIMA originally allocated 5 Tb to this project, but with CanCM3 and 4 (arrived in June) we had to update our storage. We are working on this, going to aprox. 10 Tb MIROC test files are ok and we are figuring out how to get the discs with the full data set Celeste Saulo - WGSIP15 Hamburg, Germany, September
7 CIMA- CHFP List of registered people # Last Name, First Name Country Institute 1 carolina@cima.fcen.uba.ar Vera Carolina AR Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera 2 dmin@rsmas.miami.edu Min Duke USA Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science 3 daved@iri.columbia.edu DeWitt Dave USA IRI 4 mizarate@cima.fcen.uba.ar Ortiz de Zarate Maria Ines AR Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmosfera 5 anna.pirani@noc.soton.ac.uk Pirani Anna IT CLIVAR 6 tyasuda@mri-jma.go.jp Yasuda Tamaki JP Meteorological Research Institute 7 saulo@cima.fcen.uba.ar Saulo Celeste AR Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera 8 surya@tropmet.res.in Suryachandra Rao Anguluri IN Indian INstitute of Tropical Meteorology 9 Cyril.Caminade@liverpool.ac.uk Caminade Cyril GB University of Liverpool 10 sonia.seneviratne@env.ethz.ch Seneviratne Sonia CH ETH Zurich 11 o.alves@bom.gov.au Alves Oscar AU CAWCR, Australian Bureau of Meteorology 12 f.doblas-reyes@ic3.cat Doblas Paco ES IC3 13 F.Tseitkin@bom.gov.au Tseitkin Faina AU Australian bureau of meteorology, CAWCR 14 a.schepen@bom.gov.au Schepen Andrew AU Australia Government Bureau of Meteorology 15 gyoung@bom.gov.au Young Griffith AU Centre for Australian Weather & Climate Research 16 george.boer@ec.gc.ca boer george CA CCCma 17 adam.scaife@metoffice.gov.uk Scaife Adam GB Met Office Hadley Centre 18 k.j.lynch@pgr.reading.ac.uk Lynch Kieran GB Reading Meteorology Department 19 a.i.lawes@pgr.reading.ac.uk Lawes Alexander GB Department of Meteorology, University of Reading 20 amy.butler@noaa.gov Butler Amy US NOAA/NCEP 21 bkirtman@rsmas.miami.edu Kirtman Ben US University of Miami 22 bill.merryfield@ec.gc.ca Merryfield William CA Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis 23 woosung.lee@ec.gc.ca Lee WooSung CA Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment 24 a.charles@bom.gov.au Charles Andrew AU Bureau of Meteorology 25 osman@cima.fcen.uba.ar Osman Marisol AR CIMA 26 zhaoly69@gmail.com zhao liyun CN Beijing Normal University 27 T.Stockdale@ecmwf.int Stockdale Tim GB ECMWF 28 pengzhaoliang@gmail.com Zhaoliang Peng AU CSIRO Land & Water Celeste Saulo - WGSIP15 Hamburg, Germany, September
8 Celeste Saulo - WGSIP15 Hamburg, Germany, September ,9 Gb in August 8
9 The aim of this study is to analyze the potential predictability of circulation variables and the influence of El Niño and La Niña Events on this predictability (following Wu and Kirtman 2006) This study is intended to provide a preliminary framework for the selection of potential predictors of South America summertime precipitation based on models ability to reproduce regional circulation patterns. Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera (CIMA/CONICET- UBA),DCAO/FCEN,UMI IFAECI/CNRS, Buenos Aires, Argentina
10 Institution Model Ensemble Members Lead Months Starting Month Hindcast Period NCEP CFS v1 7 9 May, nov Meteo France ARPEGE 11 4 May, nov MRI JMA/MRI- CGCM 10 6 May, nov Met Office GloSea4 9 5 May, nov CMC CMAM 10 4 May, nov ECMWF IFS-HOPE 9 5 May, nov
11 HGT 500 hpa DJF Total Variance Signal Noise NCEP Model CMC Model MRI Model
12 HGT 500 hpa DJF Total Variance Signal Noise Meteo France Model Met Office Model ECMWF Model
13 Predictability Changes HGT 500 hpa DJF El Niño NCEP Model Predictability Ratio S/S0 ENSO/tot N0/N tot/enso La Niña
14 Predictability Changes HGT 500 hpa DJF El Niño CMC Model Predictability Ratio S/S0 ENSO/tot N0/N tot/enso La Niña
15 Predictability Changes HGT 500 hpa DJF El Niño MRI Model Predictability Ratio S/S0 ENSO/tot N0/N tot/enso La Niña
16 Predictability Changes HGT 500 hpa DJF El Niño Meteo France Model La Niña Predictability Ratio S/S0 ENSO/tot N0/N tot/enso
17 Predictability Changes HGT 500 hpa DJF El Niño Met Office Model Predictability Ratio S/S0 ENSO/tot N0/N tot/enso La Niña
18 Predictability Changes HGT 500 hpa DJF El Niño ECMWF Model La Niña Predictability Ratio S/S0 ENSO/tot N0/N tot/enso
19 WCRP has taken the challenge of promoting research needed to underpin the provision of skilfull future climate information on regional scales Research focused in improving climate predictions at regional scales Research oriented by demands of socioeconomic sectors sensitive to climate Celeste Saulo - WGSIP15 Hamburg, Germany, September
20 To achieve these goals, WCRP-JSC endorsed the organization of two Scoping Workshops (one in South America and another in Africa) for identifying/organizing key actions needed (at the regional level) to accomplish WCRP grand challenges. The VAMOS panel is involved in the organization of this Scoping Workshop (Walter Baethgen and Celeste Saulo cochairs) Celeste Saulo - WGSIP15 Hamburg, Germany, September
21 WCRP has taken the challenge of promoting research needed to underpin the provision of skilfull future climate information on regional scales Research focused in improving climate predictions at regional scales WGSIP CHFP Celeste Saulo - WGSIP15 Hamburg, Germany, September
22 Thank you! Celeste Saulo - WGSIP15 Hamburg, Germany, September
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