Norge House Price Index, A Guide For Indexors

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1 EIENDOMSVERDI The housing market update September

2 Executive summary The market cooled off after the seasonal increase in August prices fell 0.9 percent but were marginally up (0.1 percent) on a seasonally adjusted basis Year/Year growth however fell significantly to its lowest level in 2015 Strongest market this month was yet again Oslo While Rogaland and Stavanger continues to be the weakest markets and both are now in negative territory Year/Year The sell/ask spread narrowed significantly Volumes in September was lower than last year but still the second highest since 2006 However volumes in Rogaland was significantly lower than last year for the second month in a row The monthly housing market update

3 HPI Norway September down 0,9 percent; up 0,1 percent seasonally adjusted The monthly housing market update

4 Year/Year growth rate falls to 6,9%

5 Eiendom Norge House Price Index summary: The market cools of after a hot August, prices marginally up on a seasonally adjusted basis But unadjusted prices were down 0.9 percent Year/Year growth rate falls to 6.9 percent the lowest in 2015 so far Table 1. Summary Eiendom Norge House Index Eiendom Norge Index Index (Jan 03 = 100) 227,0 Change september ,9 % Change september ,1 % Change september ,4 % Change august ,5 % Change juli ,1 % Year over Year 6,9 % 5 Years 33,3 % Price Change since previous all time high -0,9 % Price Change since previous trough 15,1 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi The monthly housing market update

6 The house price index, segmented by housing types

7 House prices by housing types Strongest segment for yet another month was detached Weakest segment was apartments but apartments remains the strongest segment Y/Y Over 5 years apartments have outperformed significantly probably reflecting that cities have seen stronger growth than the rest of the country in that period Table 2. Summary by property type Detached Terraced Apartments Index (Jan 03 = 100) 223,2 227,7 228,4 Change september ,7 % -0,9 % -1,0 % Change september ,0 % 0,3 % 0,3 % Change september ,3 % -1,2 % -1,5 % Change august ,9 % 4,0 % 1,1 % Change juli ,4 % -3,1 % 0,4 % Year over Year 6,9 % 4,9 % 7,4 % 5 Years 28,4 % 28,1 % 37,2 % Price Change since previous all time high -0,7 % -0,9 % -1,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 15,1 % 11,5 % 15,9 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi The monthly housing market update

8 House prices by selected counties

9 House prices by selected counties Oslo reclaimed the throne as the strongest growing market in September And Rogaland reclaimed the bottom spot Y/Y Rogaland is still the weakest market and the only one with a fall Y/Y Oslo continues to outperform Table 3. Summary by selected counties Oslo Hordaland Sør-Trøndelag Rogaland Nordland Vest-Agder Hedmark Index (Jan 03 = 100) 231,9 260,1 245,0 267,6 245,7 219,9 214,4 Change september ,6 % -1,0 % -1,0 % -1,7 % -0,9 % -1,3 % -1,0 % Change september ,4 % 0,0 % 0,0 % -0,6 % -0,4 % 0,0 % -0,2 % Change september ,7 % -1,2 % -1,3 % -1,6 % -1,1 % -1,8 % -1,2 % Change august ,7 % 2,5 % 2,1 % 2,1 % 3,2 % 2,8 % 3,2 % Change juli ,2 % -0,8 % -0,9 % -2,0 % -1,7 % -1,7 % -1,7 % Year over Year 11,1 % 7,9 % 5,7 % -1,2 % 5,5 % 4,2 % 6,8 % 5 Years 43,4 % 36,6 % 40,4 % 21,1 % 34,1 % 11,8 % 26,8 % Price Change since previous all time high -0,6 % -1,0 % -1,0 % -3,7 % -0,9 % -1,3 % -1,0 % Price Change since previous Trough 19,2 % 17,3 % 13,8 % 3,2 % 15,1 % 11,0 % 16,5 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi The monthly housing market update

10 Apartments in selected cities

11 Summary apartments in the big cities: Stavanger is significantly weaker than all the other cities and the only city with a Y/Y fall However all cities had falling prices in September Oslo was yet again the strongest market with Bergen the second strongest Y/Y these two are also the strongest together with Tromsø Table 4. Summary apartments big cities Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø Index (Jan 03 = 100) 232,0 265,4 240,9 275,4 216,1 250,1 244,9 233,4 Change september ,6 % -1,2 % -1,3 % -2,2 % -1,6 % -1,3 % -1,0 % -1,2 % Change september ,4 % 0,2 % 0,1 % -0,5 % 0,4 % 0,9 % 0,3 % 0,0 % Change september ,7 % -1,2 % -1,6 % -1,6 % -1,6 % -0,9 % -1,5 % -1,2 % Change august ,5 % 1,1 % 0,7 % -0,1 % 0,8 % 0,9 % 0,7 % 1,3 % Change juli ,5 % 0,5 % 0,4 % -0,3 % 0,0 % 0,7 % 0,2 % 0,3 % Year over Year 11,4 % 8,5 % 5,0 % -3,5 % 4,0 % 8,5 % 7,7 % 5,9 % 5 Years 44,4 % 40,7 % 41,3 % 19,8 % 10,0 % 51,3 % 49,3 % 40,2 % Price Change since previous all time high -0,6 % -1,2 % -1,3 % -6,7 % -1,6 % -1,3 % -1,0 % -1,2 % Price Change since previous Trough 74,7 % 75,0 % 77,8 % 51,3 % 29,1 % 73,6 % 81,5 % 61,2 % Source: Eiendom Norge, Finn.no, Eiendomsverdi The monthly housing market update

12 Median housing prices and the first and third quartile (quarterly data)

13 Detached and terraced median sales price

14 Median sales prices for apartments Oslo the most expensive city

15 Summary median prices Median prices made a significant fall but this is just a normal seasonal adjustment Oslo has the highest prices for both apartments and detached houses There are very few detached houses in Oslo, hence the very high median price Tromsø has the second most expensive apartments while the second dearest detached houses are found in Akershus Oslo s neighboring county The cheapest houses are found in Hedmark and Nord - Trøndelag The monthly housing market update

16 Unsold stock

17 Unsold stock in Oslo and Bergen

18 Unsold stock in Trondheim and Stavanger

19 Age of inventory in June (unsold stock)

20 Volumes in September The monthly housing market update

21 Year to date volumes The monthly housing market update

22 Time on the market

23 Prices in Norway, UK, Sweden, Denmark and the USA Source: S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Composite 20, Realkredittrådet, Hometrack, Statistics Sweden, Eiendomsverdi The monthly housing market update

24 Sell/ask spread for Norway: 2,6 percent

25 The sell-ask spread in Oslo, Trondheim, Bergen and Stavanger

26 Sell-ask spread in Tromsø, Drammen, Kristiansand and Bodø

27 Summary the sell-ask spread The sell/ask spread narrowed in every city and on a national basis Only exception is Stavanger where the spread widened on the negative side This means that the Stavanger sellers have not achieved their asking prices for almost two years Oslo still has a much wider spread than the rest of the country Table 6 Summary (Final Selling Price - Ask Price) / Ask Price Oslo Bergen Trondheim Stavanger Kristiansand Tromsø Drammen Bodø sep. 15 6,7 % 3,1 % 2,2 % -3,7 % -0,7 % 0,2 % 3,9 % 1,9 % Average 4,9 % 4,6 % 2,6 % 2,0 % 1,4 % -0,5 % 2,3 % 1,6 % All-time high 10,6 % 11,8 % 7,8 % 10,2 % 10,0 % 4,0 % 8,2 % 5,6 % Date All time high ( ) jul. 15 jan. 05 feb. 13 aug. 06 feb. 07 feb. 07 jan. 13 sep. 06 All-time low -6,4 % -5,1 % -5,9 % -6,5 % -7,1 % -8,9 % -3,3 % -7,7 % Date All time low ( ) des. 08 des. 08 nov. 08 nov. 08 des. 08 okt. 08 jan. 09 des. 08 Source: Eiendomsverdi The monthly housing market update

28 Housing starts in Norway for August The monthly housing market update Source:SSB

29 12 month rolling rate The monthly housing market update Source:SSB

30 Eiendomsverdi s estimates: transaction prices over-estimated by 0,2 % The monthly housing market update

31 EIENDOMSVERDI Second homes 3. quarter 2015

32 Executive summary Median sales prices for second homes continues to grow Y/Y Average time on the market also came in significantly Volumes set new All Time high almost ten percent higher than last year The monthly housing market update

33 Median Value 3. quarter second homes The monthly housing market update 33

34 Average time on market second homes 3. quarter The monthly housing market update 34

35 Transaction volumes 3. quarter second homes The monthly housing market update 35

36 Contact information Eiendomsverdi AS Trelastgaten 3 PB Sentrum, N Oslo Tel: Fax: post@eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Sigmund Aas Tel: saa@eiendomsverdi.no Housing Research Anders Lund Tel: al@eiendomsverdi.no The monthly housing market update

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