Outlook on Enrolments in Computer Science in Canadian Universities

Transcription

1 Developing Tomorrow s Workforce Today January, 2008 Outlook on Enrolments in Computer Science in Canadian Universities By Jacob Slonim, Sam Scully and Michael McAllister REPORTS Information and Communications Conseil des technologies de l information Technology Council et des communications

2 *Correspondence to Information and Communications Technology Council Conseil des technologies de l information et des communications This project is funded by the Government of Canada s Sector Council Program.

3 Executive Summary The primary purpose of this study is to describe and assess the recent trends in enrolments in computer science in Canadian universities. The study uses data obtained from various sources, and includes information about U.S. as well as Canadian universities. In both countries the enrolment trend is clear: a substantial decline in undergraduate enrolments. In Canada that decline commences about 2002 and results in current enrolments at 36% to 64% of their peak values in all but one region in Canada. The decline will result in fewer undergraduate students completing their degrees for the next several years, until at least There has been a major decline in undergraduate enrolments in all regions except for British Columbia, and the decline has been highest in the Atlantic Provinces, Manitoba and Saskatchewan. All regions have seen a growth in graduate enrolments, both at the Master s and Doctoral level, but recently some have seen a decline in Master s enrolments. The importance of the ICT sector to Canada s national interest and economy was emphasized in the Federal Government s 2007 Science and Technology Paper, which passed over this decade s enrolment decline in computer science. A coalition of hightech firms was announced in December 2007 to address the workforce crisis that results from this enrolment decline and the international competition for highly-skilled IT employees. This study identifies five frequently-suggested explanations for the decline in undergraduate enrolment in computer science: public perceptions surrounding the dotcom bubble burst in , and parental and student perceptions about likely employment opportunities; public perceptions and lack of understanding about the field of computer science as it is today; the failure of many university computer science programs to adapt to changed circumstances; the ubiquity of computers, so that generalpurpose computing is now, literally, commonplace; and deficiencies in the high-school environments in the preparation of students for IT education and careers. It goes on to describe the principal initiatives undertaken by universities across Canada to respond to the enrolment declines. It is concluded that it is premature in most cases to judge the effectiveness of these initiatives, and that in any event it will be some time before the benefits of particular changes one thinks first of curriculum will be observable. The study concludes with a review of the discussions held at a CASCON workshop in October A heterogeneous gathering of private and public sector representatives joined with university and high-school representatives to identify steps that should be taken to stem the enrolment decline in undergraduate ICT programs. The workshop and the study assign various responsibilities for action to the different sectors. Three actions stand out as urgent. First, the private sector should take the lead, with help from governments, in creating a new image of the ICT sector that emphasizes the abundance and diversity of employment opportunities, a message that needs to be embedded in a marketing strategy designed to raise the public profile and understanding of the modern ICT sector. Second, the federal government needs to support a national survey that helps i

4 to define and characterize public and, above all, students perceptions of the ICT field to improve our understanding of why students, and especially women, are not pursuing ICT degrees, and to identify what factors and changes will draw more students to the sector. Third, provincial governments, high schools and universities must address a variety of issues to do with the curricula, pedagogy and delivery of computer science in order to attract and retain students. ii

5 Table of Contents Executive Summary... i List of Tables... iv List of Figures... v Acknowledgements... vi 1 Introduction Methodology Results North American Trends Statistics Canada Data Compared With Computer Science Data Atlantic Provinces Quebec Ontario Manitoba and Saskatchewan Alberta British Columbia Regional Comparisons Interviews Explanations for decline in undergraduate enrolment in Computer Science University responses to the decline in undergraduate enrolment Other Studies CASCON Workshop Summary Directions Sector Responses Private Sector Public Sector Universities High Schools Conclusions and Recommendations Conclusions Recommendations References Appendix A: Notice of CASCON workshop on computer science enrolments iii

6 List of Tables Table 1 Canadian universities with ICT programs... 5 iv

7 List of Figures Figure 1 Computer Science enrolments: Taulbee US and Canadian institution data compared with Statistics Canada Canadian institutions... 6 Figure 2 Atlantic Provinces Undergraduate Enrolments... 8 Figure 3 Atlantic Provinces Masters Enrolments... 9 Figure 4 Atlantic Provinces PhD Enrolments... 9 Figure 5 Quebec Undergraduate Enrolments Figure 6 Quebec Masters Enrolments Figure 7 Quebec PhD Enrolments Figure 8 Ontario Undergraduate Enrolments Figure 9 Ontario Masters Enrolments Figure 10 Ontario PhD Enrolments Figure 11 Manitoba and Saskatchewan Undergraduate Enrolment Figure 12 Manitoba and Saskatchewan Masters Enrolment Figure 13 Manitoba and Saskatchewan PhD Enrolment Figure 14 Alberta Undergraduate Enrolment Figure 15 Alberta Masters Enrolment Figure 16 Alberta PhD Enrolment Figure 17 British Columbia Undergraduate Enrolment Figure 18 British Columbia Masters Enrolment Figure 19 British Columbia PhD Enrolment Figure 20 Undergraduate Enrolments by Region; not all schools represented in each region Figure 21 Masters Enrolments by Region; not all schools represented in each region Figure 22 PhD Enrolment by Region; not all schools represented in each region Figure 23 Undergraduate Graduation Numbers by Region; not all schools represented in each region Figure 24 Masters Graduation Numbers by Region; not all schools represented in each region Figure 25 PhD Graduation Numbers by Region; not all schools represented in each region Figure 26 Computer Science BSc Enrolments. Source: Statistics Canada via ICT-SITT Industry Canada Presentation (blue) and department data (red) Figure 27 Computer Science Masters (blue, red) and PhD (yellow, cyan) Enrolments. Source: Statistics Canada via ICT-SITT Industry Canada Presentation (blue, yellow) and department data (red, cyan) Figure 28 Computer Science BSc Degrees Awarded. Source: Statistics Canada via ICT- SITT Industry Canada Presentation (blue) and department data (red) Figure 29 Computer Science Masters (blue, red) and PhD (yellow, cyan) Degrees Awarded. Source: Statistics Canada via ICT-SITT Industry Canada Presentation (blue, yellow) and department data (red, cyan) Figure 30 Probable majors in computer science and computer engineering among incoming freshmen, from the CRA ( accessed October 3, 2007) v

8 Acknowledgements We would like to thank the individuals who have helped create this report: All of the chairs of Computer Science departments in Canada for their participation, openness, and feedback in discussing and quantifying the issues that are facing the ICT sector. The industry partners with whom we met during our on-site interviews for their perspective on the direction of the discipline. Paul Swinwood from the Information and Communications Technology Council for sponsoring the report. Michael Binder and Richard Simpson from Industry Canada for encouraging us with the report and helping to connect us with agencies and high-tech companies. Marcel Boudreau from Statistics Canada for locating a key data component. Asa Kachan, the Registrar at Dalhousie University, for helping to collect information from Canadian universities. The office staff at the Computing Research Association (CRA) for providing some US data. John Schwarz from Business Objects for providing additional industrial contacts. Felix Berezovsky from Industry Canada for providing graphs on historical enrolment information from ICT-SITT. vi

9 1 Introduction This report addresses several major concerns in faculties and departments of Computer Science in North America. From 2002 onwards, universities experienced significant declines in their high-school admissions into computer science programs. This trend of declining admissions persisted for several years, and many universities are only now starting to report a stabilization of their admissions. Although there was a similar drop in the 1980s, today s concern has to do with whether this trend will continue and cause a major employment problem for both Canada and the US. As markets become increasingly global and it is crucial to note here that this decline in the number of students taking computer science programs is also evident in the UK and Europe it is critically important that Canada stays competitive in the IT market, all the more so as every challenge in every sector is using computing as part of the solution to increase productivity. The importance of the ICT sector to Canada s national interest is emphasized in the Federal Government s 2007 Science and Technology Paper, Mobilizing Science and Technology to Canada s Advantage [IC]. Last year the Council of Canadian Academies had identified the ICT sector as one of four areas of Canadian S & T (Science and Technology) strengths and opportunities. The S & T Strategy Paper calls for increases in the supply of highly qualified and globally connected science and technology graduates (p.78). However, the paper s authors do not acknowledge this decade s decline in the numbers of students in computer science programs or the challenge that confronts the country s computer science departments in their recruitment of students. That this challenge is not only Canadian but also international in scope will, of course, make this major component of the ICT all the more competitive. The purpose of this study is to understand and to describe in much more detail the phenomenon of computer science enrolments generally in North America and specifically in Canada. The study focuses on total enrolments, without distinguishing between men and women. We use in this report three major sources of data: Statistics Canada, Enhanced Student Information System [Stat Can]; enrollment reports from the chairs of the Canadian Computer Science departments; and the Taulbee Survey of Ph.D.-granting departments of computer science (CS) and computer engineering (CE) in the United States and Canada [Taulbee]. While the data are not directly comparable between the data sources due to differences in collection assumptions, a comparison of the intrasource trends can provide some additional insights. The report confirms the consistent pattern of declines across all three sources of data. Section 2 of the report sets out the methodology used in assessing the current state of enrollment and of recruiting endeavours in Canada. Section 3 presents the main trends seen in the data, and provides detailed information about both national and regional trends. Section 4 summarizes the explanations for the undergraduate enrolment that were 1

10 provided in interviews with university senior administrators, chairs of computer science departments and deans of faculties across Canada, and identifies the university responses to the decline in undergraduate enrolment. Section 5 briefly comments on some other enrolment studies. Section 6 presents the main conclusions drawn from the October 24, 2007 workshop at IBM CASCON that focused on the enrollment trends from this enrolment information. Finally, Section 7 summarizes the report and offers a series of major recommendations that emerge from our work and from the CASCON Workshop. 2

11 2 Methodology This study had four distinct phases. First, we examined existing enrolment data for Canada and North America to identify general trends. Second, we visited universities across Canada to discuss the apparent trends in their regions, the regional challenges computer science departments and faculties had encountered, their efforts in recruiting, and the other actions they had taken in response to the enrolment decline. Third, we collected undergraduate and graduate enrolment figures directly from the computer science departments to assess and corroborate the trends that had emerged. Fourth, we organized a workshop at the 2007 IBM CASCON to discuss the enrolment trends with a mixed group of public and private sector partners, university representatives, and high school education representatives. In the first phase, we began with a national and provincial analysis of Canadian university enrolments by institutions from to , based on the classification from Statistics Canada [Stat Can]. Table 1 lists the 62 IT universities in Canada that appear in the Statistics Canada data. The Statistics Canada figures include all IT education at each university, which may include management information science (MIS) programs as well as computer science programs and also normalize enrolment figures to full-time-equivalents (FTE). Separately, we extracted the Statistics Canada data for the 29 Canadian universities that offer doctoral programs and are included in the Taulbee reports. We looked for trends among these 29 Canadian universities that we could compare with the trends seen in the Taulbee reports [Taulbee]. Then, in the spring and summer of 2007 we conducted on-site interviews of senior administrators and computer science chairs at selected universities across Canada to review our preliminary findings, to learn about the most recent enrolments, and to inquire about recruitment activities and initiatives. The following universities were selected for interviews to provide coverage across Canada; interviews were conducted until we reached a point of saturation in terms of new information: University of British Columbia University of Alberta University of Calgary University of Saskatchewan University of Waterloo University of Toronto Université du Québec à Montréal McGill University Concordia University Université de Sherbrooke Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières Université Laval Dalhousie University Memorial University of Newfoundland 3

12 Each interview began with a presentation of the Statistics Canada data for the specific institution and with summary (provincial and national) comparisons for the specific region. Anomalies (university-specific and national) and preliminary trends were identified for the participants. We then initiated discussion about the trends, the possible explanations of the trends, and about recent developments and responses to the enrolment decline at each university. Individual interviews followed the group discussion forum. These university interviews were supplemented by a discussion at the Canadian computer science chairs meeting, to which all Canadian chairs of computer science are invited, and by a group meeting of computer science chairs in Montreal, in which six Quebec universities were represented. We also included industry partners in our interviews, as each university could coordinate for us. We would have preferred to have conducted a much wider industrial consultation. Partners who were consulted include Research In Motion, Waterloo IBM, Toronto Business Objects, Vancouver CIO, Quebec consortium of CEOs SG1, Toronto, consortium of companies involved in electronic commerce In phase three of our work, we solicited enrolment data from each computer science department in Canada to determine the proportion of students in the Statistics Canada data who are taking computer science, to obtain data for the most recent two academic years that are absent from the Statistics Canada data, and to obtain graduation data in addition to enrolment data. We are delighted by, and very grateful for, the number of responses from the Canadian universities including all major Canadian universities: 35 of the 62 institutions responded with data. These data are not normalized to FTEs as the Statistics Canada data are. Because the goal of this report is to assess the state of computer science enrolments across Canada, and out of respect for the wish of many individual university departments, we do not report the enrolments of individual universities. The last phase involved the CASCON Workshop on October 24, This took the form of a presentation of the overall enrolment picture set out in this report and then an open discussion and brainstorming session among public and private sector partners, university representatives, and high school representatives. The goal of the workshop was twofold: first to develop recommendations to address the enrolment decline and second to identify concrete actions that would give meaning to the recommendations. After the opening presentation to the participants, ten groups of about ten individuals independently developed their set of the top five recommendations to deal with the enrolment challenge. Next, representatives from each brainstorming group reported their group s recommendations to the workshop participants for discussion and for developing a consensus of recommendations. The most-valued ten recommendations were then 4

13 discussed in the afternoon session, where each brainstorming group was assigned one recommendation and asked to develop a plan of concrete actions for the recommendation. The conclusions of the Workshop are described in much detail in Section 6 of the report. Acadia University Université de Moncton Athabasca University Université de Montréal Bishop's University Université de Sherbrooke Brandon University Université du Québec à Chicoutimi Brock Université du Québec à Montréal Canadian Mennonite Université du Québec à Rimouski Cape Breton University Université du Québec à Trois-Rivières Université du Québec en Abitibi- Carleton University Témiscamingue Concordia University Université du Québec en Outaouais Concordia University College of Alberta Université Laval Concordia University University of Alberta Dalhousie University University of British Columbia École de Technologie Supérieure University of Calgary King's University College University of Guelph Lakehead University University of King's College Laurentian University / Université Laurentienne University of Lethbridge McGill University University of Manitoba McMaster University University of New Brunswick Memorial University of Newfoundland University of Northern British Mount Allison University University of Ottawa / Université d Ottawa Mount St. Vincent University University of Prince Edward Island Nipissing University University of Regina Queen's University University of Saskatchewan Redeemer University College University of Ryerson University University of Victoria Saint Mary's University University of Waterloo Simon Fraser University University of Western Ontario St. Francis Xavier University University of Windsor Télé-université University of Winnipeg Trent University Wilfrid Laurier University Trinity Western University York University Table 1 Canadian universities with ICT programs 5

14 3 Results 3.1 North American Trends The annual Taulbee reports [Taulbee] summarize information from PhD-granting universities in Canada and the United States. Figure 1 compares the Taulbee enrolment data from US and Canadian institutions with the Statistics Canada data for all Canadian universities (PhD-granting or not). The Taulbee data for Canadian institutions does not always contain the same number of institutions, so the data exhibits a higher variation than the Statistics Canada data. Both countries have been witnessing a decline in undergraduate enrolments in computer science that commenced in the academic year. Figure 1 Computer Science enrolments: Taulbee US and Canadian institution data compared with Statistics Canada Canadian institutions 6

15 3.2 Statistics Canada Data Compared With Computer Science Data The enrolment statistics gathered by Statistics Canada include registrations for all fields in the IT sector. Some institutions include in their reports for this sector their MIS programs (normally in their business school) in addition to their computer science and software engineering programs. Enrolment statistics were gathered independently from just the computer science departments of each institution in order to establish if the trends seen across the IT sector are consistent with the trends experienced in computer science departments. The figures in this section present the Statistics Canada numbers alongside the enrolments in computer science programs. We remind the reader that the numbers are not directly comparable in their numerical values since the Statistics Canada data have been normalized to FTEs and that the Statistics Canada data contain more reporting institutions than the data received from individual departments. We are primarily concerned with trends and discrepancies in trends rather than with absolute enrolment numbers. The data from departments also present the two most recent academic years of data, which were not available from Statistics Canada at the time that this report was being prepared. The figures also present the number of students who have graduated from the computer science or software engineering as reported by the computer science departments. In the majority of the regions in Canada, the trends were consistent between the Statistics Canada data and the data from computer science departments. The general trend has been a decline in undergraduate computer science enrolment in all regions of Canada except British Columbia. The latest enrolment figures place current registrations between 36% and 64% of their peaks, differing by region and with the exception of British Columbia. The so-called double cohort, brought about by the elimination of grade 13 in Ontario high schools, and the matching ATOP program to increase enrolments at Ontario Universities provided a temporary yet substantial increase in undergraduate enrolments in Ontario, but an eventual decline in undergraduate enrolments has since followed in that province. Particularly noteworthy is the fact that the Atlantic provinces and the two prairie provinces, Manitoba and Saskatchewan, have been especially hard hit by the declines in undergraduate enrolment; these regions have been investing in programs that have produced success in other parts of Canada, such as multidisciplinary programs, but the return on this investment is not occurring at the same rate as elsewhere in Canada. All regions saw a growth in graduate enrolments, both at the Masters and Doctorate levels. Interviews with individual university representatives uniformly report a conscious choice by departments and/or provinces to focus on graduate programs as undergraduate enrolment declined. Anecdotal reports indicate that applications to graduate programs are now also declining; further data will need to be gathered to verify and quantify this 7

16 decline. Much of that graduate growth had been achieved through the recruitment of international students, a factor also in the changing picture in undergraduate enrolment. The following subsections provide graphs for each region and some brief comment on any specific anomalies identified within the region Atlantic Provinces Two main trends become evident in the Atlantic Provinces: the continuing decline of undergraduate enrolments (Figure 2) and the more recent sharp decline in enrolments in Masters programs (Figure 3). Some Atlantic universities have focused on attracting and supporting Doctorate students, and this has caused a decrease in the Masters enrolments. However, student intake in the Masters programs is often from local universities and from international students (China and India in particular). The decline in undergraduate graduations, the substantial international student fee differentials and an absence of Masters-level student funding in some universities have resulted in lower application rates to the Masters programs. Atlantic Provinces Undergraduate Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 2 Atlantic Provinces Undergraduate Enrolments 8

17 Atlantic Provinces Masters Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 3 Atlantic Provinces Masters Enrolments Atlantic Provinces PhD Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 4 Atlantic Provinces PhD Enrolments 9

18 3.2.2 Quebec There has been a decline in undergraduate enrolments in Quebec, a substantial decline according to the Statistics Canada data and a more gradual decline according to the data from the departments (Figure 5). Before commenting on the structure of the Figure, we note that our data from departments are lacking the enrolments of several provincial universities that have a large undergraduate enrolment. These missing data account for the large difference between the Statistics Canada data and the data from the departments. Although it is not immediately evident from Figure 5, the Statistics Canada data and the data from the departments register a comparable percentage decline from the academic year to the academic year. The missing data from the departments do not account completely for the sharper drop of enrolments in the Statistics Canada data around the academic year. One of the main contributing factors reported to us as an explanation for the discrepancy in the data sources is that some programs were shifted between Faculties in some institutions, which seems to have altered their reporting to Statistics Canada. Other explanations for the declines in both data sources are the supply of students and the closing of provincial programs. The Quebec universities have a smaller pool of high school students from which to draw: few students outside Quebec attend Quebec universities, while universities in other provinces often benefit from greater student mobility. Quebec also offered a program that paralleled Ontario s ATOP program to handle the double-cohort phenomenon. The program provided additional funding to departments and financial incentives to university students who graduated. This program was eliminated in , and its elimination may have contributed to students no longer pursuing careers in the information technology sector. The graduate enrolments (Figures 6 and 7) show early growth with comparable increases in the number of students who are graduating with graduate degrees. The Masters programs appear to have a decline in enrolment, but an increase in graduation rates. We have not determined the cause of this trend. Possible explanations would include higher retention rates in the programs or shorter times-to-completion between admission and graduation. 10

19 Quebec Undergraduate Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 5 Quebec Undergraduate Enrolments Quebec Masters Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 6 Quebec Masters Enrolments 11

20 Quebec PhD Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 7 Quebec PhD Enrolments Ontario According to the Statistics Canada data, Ontario universities have between 40% ( ) and 49% ( ) of the undergraduate enrolments in Canada in the ICT sector. What appears to be an increase in their share of Canadian undergraduate enrolments is, in fact, a result of les severe declines in enrolments than in other provinces and in the Ontario universities ability to attract students from other provinces. Indeed, the province has experienced a decline in the number of enrolled ICT students. Ontario universities exhibit a decline in undergraduate enrolments similar to that of the rest of Canada (Figure 8). There was a large growth in undergraduate enrolments as grade 13 was eliminated from Ontario high schools and the Ontario government ATOP program provided additional resources to universities to ensure that space was available in the universities. Industry and the provincial government prioritized access to IT programs at universities at a propitious time near the national downturn in enrolments. The ATOP program lasted for five years and ended in The program has been followed by a similar program for graduate studies in The province also hosts what many consider to be two of the leading computer science departments in the country. These institutions attract students from across Canada. 12

21 Ontario Undergraduate Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 8 Ontario Undergraduate Enrolments Ontario Masters Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 9 Ontario Masters Enrolments 13

22 Ontario PhD Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 10 Ontario PhD Enrolments Manitoba and Saskatchewan Undergraduate enrolments in Manitoba and Saskatchewan show a continuing decline through this decade. These provinces reveal patterns similar to those of the smaller Canadian provinces. The undergraduate programs have experienced a large and continuing decrease in enrolments. The graduate programs have increased in size over the last years, both by design and through growth in the capacities of the computer science departments. 14

23 Manitoba and Saskatchewan Undergraduate Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 11 Manitoba and Saskatchewan Undergraduate Enrolment Manitoba and Saskatchewan Masters Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates 50 0 "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 12 Manitoba and Saskatchewan Masters Enrolment 15

24 Manitoba and Saskatchewan PhD Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 13 Manitoba and Saskatchewan PhD Enrolment Alberta Alberta is one of the provinces that have placed a high value on graduate degrees, especially Ph.D.s (Figure 16), to increase the IT research base within the province. The province s universities have witnessed a decline in undergraduate enrolments like much of the rest of Canada. There are discrepancies between the Statistics Canada and the departmental data in the undergraduate (Figure 14) and Masters (Figure 15) enrolments. This discrepancy results from our lack of departmental data from a major institution for the period reported in the graph. In the Statistics Canada data, this institution appears to have either not submitted data for a few years or has closed admission to an undergraduate and Masters IT program near the year 2000 and has recently refocused on another Masters-level degree. A contributing factor to the growth in graduate programs in Alberta is the top-up program for NSERC awards to both Masters and PhD students and to the efforts of icore. Instances of these top-ups could as much as double the funding provided to a student. These top-ups provide an attractive recruiting tool for graduate students to the province s universities. 16

25 Alberta Undergraduate Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 14 Alberta Undergraduate Enrolment Alberta Masters Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 15 Alberta Masters Enrolment 17

26 Alberta PhD Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 16 Alberta PhD Enrolment British Columbia The fluctuations in undergraduate enrolment in British Columbia have been less extreme than in the other provinces (Figure 17). Interviews with representatives from the universities point to new interdisciplinary degree programs, innovative programs that have given the province the highest percentage of women in their IT degrees across Canada, and an increase in university registrations as the Technical University of British Columbia was merged with Simon Fraser ( year) and their students began to be counted among the university enrolments. They have also managed to maintain growth across their graduate degree programs (Figures 18 and 19). 18

27 British Columbia Undergraduate Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 17 British Columbia Undergraduate Enrolment British Columbia Masters Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 18 British Columbia Masters Enrolment 19

28 British Columbia PhD Number of students StatsCan Depts Graduates 50 0 "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 19 British Columbia PhD Enrolment 3.3 Regional Comparisons Figures 20, 21, and 22 summarize the department-reported statistics that have already been commented upon in Section 3.2. We have gathered the undergraduate, Masters, and Doctorate statistics for a simpler regional comparison. Figures 23, 24, and 25 allow a similar comparison with the number of graduates form each program. We should stress that not all universities in each region reported figures. Thus no conclusions should be drawn from a comparison of the number of students between regions from these data; the Statistics Canada data should be consulted for such comparisons. Figures 20 and 21 show a marked contrast between Ontario and Quebec enrolments: Ontario is significantly higher than Quebec in undergraduate enrolments, while the two provinces have comparable Masters enrolments. The responding universities from Quebec were those that for the most part emphasize graduate programs, and we received data from a relatively smaller proportion of the universities that focus on undergraduate education. The numbers also do not differentiate between full-time and part-time students; thus one region may have more part-time students than another, which may inflate their enrolments in Figures 20 through

29 Figure 25 reports the number of Ph.D.s granted in each year, a small number of individuals. It is not clear that any reasonable conclusion can be drawn from the current data. Undergraduate enrolments from CS Depts Number of students Atl. Prov. Quebec Ontario Man. & Sask. Alberta BC "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 20 Undergraduate Enrolments by Region; not all schools represented in each region 21

30 Masters Enrolment from CS Depts Number of students Atl. Prov. Quebec Ontario Man. & Sask. Alberta BC "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 21 Masters Enrolments by Region; not all schools represented in each region PhD Enrolments from CS Depts Number of students Atl. Prov. Quebec Ontario Man. & Sask. Alberta BC "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 22 PhD Enrolment by Region; not all schools represented in each region 22

31 Undergraduate Graduates Number of students Atl. Prov. Quebec Ontario Man. & Sask. Alberta BC "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 23 Undergraduate Graduation Numbers by Region; not all schools represented in each region Masters Graduates Number of students Atl. Prov. Quebec Ontario Man. & Sask. Alberta BC "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 24 Masters Graduation Numbers by Region; not all schools represented in each region 23

32 PhD Graduates Number of students Atl. Prov. Quebec Ontario Man. & Sask. Alberta BC "99/00 "00/01 "01/02 "02/03 "03/04 "04/05 "05/06 "06/07 Year Figure 25 PhD Graduation Numbers by Region; not all schools represented in each region 24

33 4 Interviews At the beginning of each meeting with the university colleagues we explained the purpose and range of our study. In all the meetings with the chairs of Computer Science we reviewed the Statistics Canada data for their own institution and the summary comparisons of the regional and national data. We identified for them the manifest anomalies for the individual university and the region as well as the trends that we saw in these enrolment data. We then invited discussion, in particular on two major issues: first, on the possible explanations for the trends and especially the declines in undergraduate enrolments; and, second, on the ways in which they had chosen to respond to these changed circumstances, particularly through program adaptations and recruiting efforts. In some cases the group discussions were followed by individual interviews. The university colleagues offered a variety of explanations for the declining enrolments. In each instance the view that was advanced was a matter of opinion; nowhere had any attempt been made to investigate the decline. The summary that follows below describes the principal explanations, but we are not able to assess the validity or the relative importance of the various explanations. The vast majority of those with whom we spoke think that there are several factors at work in this decade s undergraduate enrolment in computer science, each one contributing its share to the decline. 4.1 Explanations for decline in undergraduate enrolment in Computer Science The first explanation has to do with public perceptions surrounding the dot-com bubble burst in , particularly among parents of students who were finishing high school. There is persuasive evidence that parents have the strongest influence on the choice of study made by students as they progress from high school to post-secondary education. Parents and students alike observed the dot-com bubble burst. The news media frequently reported job losses in the IT sector, and through this decade there have been regular reports about the outsourcing of IT jobs to China and India. This overall environment readily prompted a belief among parents of new high-school graduates that IT was not the best career choice for their children. The second explanation focuses on the public perception of the field of computing and its influence on young students. The stereotypes here are well-known: for example, the computer scientist as a nerd, the discipline attracts loners and introverts, and computing requires long hours to gain career advancement. Such stereotypes are unfair but potent: they discourage interest in IT. At the same time, universities focus on a science-based approach to computing that emphasizes mathematical accomplishment, and this focus informs the perception that computer science is a difficult discipline. Moreover, this science-based study has another consequence: since women are under-represented in the sciences that have a strong mathematical foundation, women are already underrepresented in a primary pool on which computer science draws for its students. Finally, there is a very different and widespread perception about computers and computing, 25

34 namely, that much of it has to do with games and is essentially a fun activity. This perception is clearly at odds with the educational experience that awaits the students who enter university-level computer science courses, and this disjunction between expectation and experience may account for at least some of the attrition in enrolment that universities are experiencing this decade. It must be stressed here that a major part of the current crisis has to be a public lack of understanding of what computer science is. It has probably always been the case that most students admitted into computer science courses have only the most general sense of what computer science entails. In this respect computer science is not unique: subjects that have only been taught at the university level are traditionally little understood by the general public. But this lack of understanding is exacerbated by the common misunderstandings about computer science, for example, that it is basically about programming; relatively few people will know about the sub-disciplines within computer science such as human-computer interaction (HCI). The observation that many computer science programs have not adapted quickly enough to meet the perceptions noted in the two previous paragraphs constitutes essentially the third explanation for the enrolment decline. It can be argued that computer languages such as Java and C++ that are often used in first-year computing courses are not easily accessible, are not female-friendly, and are a poor choice as introductory languages, in that they require an initial focus on syntax rather than on problem-solving. In their first-year courses students are rarely exposed to the full breadth of computing. Again, it can be argued that university computer science departments have been slow to move towards multi-disciplinary programs as well as a wider exposure of the discipline at the first-year level. In addition, because of the very large growth in computer science enrolments in the late 1990s and at the start of this decade, computer science showed less interest in offering service courses for students who were not computer science majors. Two results were that other departments began to develop their own courses to meet their students needs, and fewer students overall were exposed to computing as an alternative area of study and career track in their first year. The fourth explanation for the decline in undergraduate enrolments centres on the ubiquity of computers throughout every setting and the ease with which even young children use computing, so that general-purpose computing is now, literally, commonplace: most people are aware that they interact with a large number of computing devices every day. Not only have the mystery and novelty of computers been eliminated. It seems likely that many people now equate IT careers with the development and maintenance of these everyday programs, and so they fail to recognize the breadth and diversity of the intellectual and creative challenges that continue to fuel new developments in the IT sector. If this analysis is correct, then the de-mystification of computers and computing now inhibits the presentation of the opportunities available to coming generations of students. It was a unanimous view among those whom we met that we cannot look to the country s high schools to remedy such misunderstandings. The final explanation speaks to 26

35 deficiencies in the high-school environments in the preparation of students for IT careers. High schools often do not offer courses in computing. Where they do, there is frequently a shortage of teachers who have an adequate understanding of computer science. Moreover, there is often a dearth of computing infrastructure in the high schools, and guidance counselors may be unable to offer informed guidance to their students about IT careers and options. The shortfall in the high schools is not always of their making. Thus we heard that computer science is not broadly offered or recognized as a teachable subject for high-school teachers, an omission that requires the attention of Ministries of Education and Faculties of Education across the country. 4.2 University responses to the decline in undergraduate enrolment The rapid changes earlier this decade compelled computer science departments to think about how they could halt this enrolment hemorrhage. They turned largely to remedies that other disciplines had applied when faced with similar circumstances. Most of them, of course, were new for computer science: one thinks immediately of recruitment, outreach and retention strategies. University computer science departments had a lot to learn, and probably still do, about how to design and implement effective initiatives in all general areas that are set out in the following paragraphs. There is as yet very little hard evidence about the effectiveness of much of the very considerable effort that departments have made over the last few years, and where enrolment numbers have picked up, it is unclear that the increase can be attributed to one initiative rather than another: correlation is just as persuasive an explanation as causation. Moreover, the benefits of particular changes one thinks first of curriculum here will not be observable for some time. The following summary includes adaptations and strategies that are being implemented or being considered for implementation. The most frequent response has been the adaptation of the computer science curriculum. There has been considerable focus on the first-year courses. The central concern here has to do with the typical course content, and in particular the use of programming languages such as Java or C++, and the argument that the introductory courses should provide a broader exposure to all the issues of computer science. Several departments have introduced, or are developing, joint programs with other disciplines (e.g. computer science and biology or economics), and are creating new interdisciplinary degrees that require substantial engagement by faculty members from computer science and several other disciplines in the delivery of the program. It is noteworthy that both Harvard [Harvard] and Georgia Tech have recently shifted the focus of their undergraduate curricula for science and engineering and have adopted an interdisciplinary approach to education. Both universities have experienced a much smaller decline in student enrolments than other universities since There is a view that is strongly held by some that the discipline must come to grips with its expectations about its mathematical and science foundation. Here there is no call for any loss of rigors in the discipline or any suggestion that its logical and structured approach to problem-solving be minimized. Rather, the view questions if there are not 27

36 alternative methods, other than differential and/or integral calculus to inculcate these essential skills. It is relevant here to note that in these interviews much was said about the deficiencies of high-school graduates in mathematics, in the view point of many a national crisis that requires immediate attention. A second area of response and adaptation involves the teaching and learning environment. Departments need to ensure that they assign their best teachers to the core courses, and particularly the introductory courses. Several departments in the leading research universities have appointed faculty members whose appointments are fundamentally teaching appointments, and report success with this strategy. There is a growing recognition that computer science needs to adapt its methods of teaching, in order to increase the students engagement with the material and to bring out the excitement of the discipline. There is much to be done here and much to be gained by all involved. A third and widespread area of action is student recruitment. Through much of the 1990s and early in this decade, computer science departments had as many students as they could accommodate; indeed, many were turning students away. Now they find themselves competing with other disciplines and, in particular, the life sciences to attract the best students. This activity is new for computer science departments who are learning to work with other university units that manage this work. There is much learning to be done about how to present computer science to the public and, in particular, to highschool students and their parents. The perceptions noted in the previous paragraph constitute a major obstacle to recruitment, and the curricular issues noted above are made all the more urgent by the requirements of any recruitment initiatives and the general marketing of computer science in a changed environment. It is important to observe that there have always been cycles in enrolments in universities in science and technology, and that computer science will almost certainly no longer be immune to those cyclical changes, now that it has assumed its place among the range of choices that students now have as they enter post-secondary education. The loss of novelty and the emergence of other hot subjects make it all the more urgent that computer science departments learn how to tell the general public about the range and excitement of the modern discipline. A major and longstanding problem in undergraduate computer science has been the recruitment of female students. For all the substantial efforts and gains made by various institutions in the 1990s, many of which have been continued in this decade, the overall picture is bleak; it is noteworthy that the U.S. experience is very similar. The most positive institutional reports reveal that only about one in four of undergraduate computer science students are female, and in many institutions that proportion has declined to around one in seven or even worse. These numbers are even more disturbing when one recalls that the absolute numbers of female students have also declined substantially, and that that recent decades have brought major changes in the makeup of student populations: almost 60% of undergraduates in Canadian universities are female, and that women have now achieved at least enrolment parity with men in traditionally male- 28