Small Cardamom Seasonal Report

Transcription

1 Small Cardamom Seasonal Report Foretell Business Solutions Pvt. Ltd #146, Ramaiah Street, 1-2 Floor, Gopal Towers Near Anjenaya Tech Park, Airport Road, Kodihalli, Bangalore INDIA Tel: , Fax: web:

2 Table of content Executive summary All India production Small cardamom production scenario- Kerala Idukki Wayanad Karnataka Kodagu Hassan Chikamagloure Tamil nadu Theni Arrivals and Sales trend Peak season arrivals v/s prices Cost of cultivation Export and import scenario-indiaa Demand and supply India Guatemala production scenario Export scenario-guatemala Cardamom price trend in international market (New York) Technical views 2

3 List of Figures: 1. Small Cardamom Area & Production- India 2. Area & Production Kerala 3. Idukki Area & Production trend 4. Wayanad Area & Production trend 5. South West Monsoon Idukki 6. Area & Production-Karnataka 7. Area & Production trend Kodagu 8. Area & Production trend Hassan 9. Area & Production- trend Chikmagloure 10..South West Monsoon - Kodagu 11. Area & Production- Tamilnadu 12. South West Monsoon Theni 13. Arrivals and price trend during Arrivals and price trend during Arrivals and price trend during Arrivals and price trend during Arrivals and price trend during Cost of cultivation comparison 19. Small cardamom export- India 19a. Cardamom olioresinss export-india 20. Indian small cardamom export destination 21. Indian small cardamom import trend 22. Cardamom area & production trend in Guatemala 23. Monthly rainfall at Coban-Alta verapaz 24. Average temperature across Coban- Alta verapaz 25. Cardamom export trend in Guatemala 26. Price trend of Indian extra bold 27. Price trend of fancy green List of Tables: 1. Replant ion and rejuvenation area across Kerala,Tamilnadu and Karnataka 2. Pre monsoon weekly rainfall-idduki region 3. Pre monsoon weekly rainfall-kodagu region 4. Pre monsoon weekly rainfall-theni region 5. Arrivals and sales trend at Vandanmedu and Bodi auction centers 5a. Arrivals and production comparison 5b. Arrivals and price comparison 6. Factors changes in cost of cultivation 7. Cardamom cost of cultivation-(idukki) Kerala. 3

4 Executive summary: For the first time Indian small cardamom production has crossed 20 thousands tonnes in current crop year of Small cardamom production is estimated to be around 22,000 tonnes which is 29% higher than the previous year production of 17,000 tonnes. In current crop season ( ) area is estimated to be around 72,000 hectares which is same as previous year area. Good and supportive rainfall (March to May) improved the yield. Besides, crop replanted and rejuvenated in reached its peak yielding period across the growing regions in India. India s carry forward stocks of small cardamom for is estimated to be around 3424 tonnes which is 10% less than carry forward stock of 3800 tonnes. Small cardamom imports are expected to be around 350 tonnes, lower than the 4-year average import of 500 tonnes. Total supply for seasons is estimated to be around 25,774 tonnes which is highest in the last 4 years supply. Exports are estimated to be grow by 7% to around 4300 tonnes (neither crushed nor ground), from exports of 4036 tonnes, due to benign prices and lower anticipated Guatemala crop. Domestic consumption for is estimated to be around 14,000 tonnes, which is 2% higher than the previous year demand of 13,800 tonnes. In current crop season, Guatemala cardamom production is estimated to be around 28,,000 metric tonnes which is lesser than the 4 years average production of 34,250 metric tonnes. Production has mainly declined due to dry spell in the flowering and fruit setting season. 4

5 Small cardamom production outlook: India s small cardamom production for the crop year is estimated to be around 22,000 tonnes, 29% higher than the previous year production of 17,000 tonnes. In current crop season ( ) area is estimated to be around 72 thousands hectares which is same as previous year area. Yield for the current crop season ( ) has increased to 306kg/ha which is 30% higher than the previous year yield of 263kg/ha. From spices board has started the re- and uneconomic plantation and rejuvenation of old plants for better productivity. So far ( ) spices board has covered an area of hectares under the replantation and 3503 hectares under rejuvenation (Ref.Table5). However, now that crop (55-60%) had reached its high yielding stage across Kerala, Karnataka and Tamil nadu regions (replanted crop yield is estimated around kg/ha). Good rains during Mar-May 15 (summer rains) across the cardamom growing regions (Kerala and Tamilnadu) followed by uniform distribution of rainfall across the growing regions during the monsoon season (Jun- Sep 15) was supportive to cardamom flowering and fruit set. Damage due to pest and diseases is estimated to be around 5-10%. Cardamom prices (Market: Vandanmedu) during the crop year traded in the range of Rs /Kg 5

6 Small cardamom production scenario Kerala Kerala s small cardamom production for is estimated to be around 18,000 tonnes as against production of 13,000 tonnes. Area for the current crop season is expected to be remains same as previous year area of 41,760 hectares. Yield for the current crop is estimated to be around 431kg/ha which is higher than the last five years average yield of 278kg/ha. Idukki region production during is estimated to be around 15,000 tonnes as against the previous year production of 11,400 tonnes. Wayanad and others regions production for is estimated to be around 2,000 tonnes. Replanted crop had reached its highh yielding period in Kerala region. Therefore production could increase as compared to previous year production level. Small cardamom production is mainly influenced by pre monsoon (March-May) rain. During the current crop season , Idukki regions received adequate rainfall between 11 th March and 27 th May (ref.table2). Higher yield from replanted crop further supported higher production. However, crop damage of around 10-15% was reported due to heavy rainfall accompanied by strong 6

7 winds recived during 2 nd week of June till 4 th week June (ref fig 5). Karnataka Kodagu, Hassan and Chikamagloure are the main cardamom growing regions in Karnataka. Cardamom is mainly cultivated as an intercrop between coffee and areca nut across Karnataka regions. Karnataka cardamom production for the current crop season is estimated to be around 2200 tonnes as against the previous year production of 1700 tonnes. In current season, area remains same as previous year area of 25,080 ha. Yield for the current crop year is estimated to be around 88kg/ha as against the previous year yield of 68kg/ha. In Kodgu region, production for the current crop year is estimated to be around 1400 tonnes as against the previous year production of 900 tonnes. In Hassan region, cardamom production for the current crop season is estimated to be around 635 tonnes as against the previous year production of 450 tonnes. In Chikamagloure region, cardamom production for the current crop season is estimated to be around 165 tonnes as against the previous year production of 90 tonnes. 7

8 In current season, Kodagu region received good rains, supporting the flowering and fruit setting (ref table 3 & fig 10). So far crop condition is good across Karnataka regions. Tamil nadu Tamil nadu cardamom production for the current crop season is estimated to be around 1800 tonnes, 39% higher compared to season production of 1300 tonnes. Yield is estimated to increase to 349kg/ha in , against 252 kg/ha in Rainfall during the current season was supportive though the crop cycle in Theni region (ref table 4 & fig12). Damages due to diseases and pest are minimal. 8

9 Arrivals and sales trend: Cardamom plants normally start bearing capsule from 3 rd year of planting, picking is carried out at an interval of 30 days. Normally harvesting season across Kerala regions starts from August while in Karnataka region harvesting starts from September. Peak arrivals season starts from end of September. Good export demand will pick up after the 2 nd round picking. Arrival and sales growth rate shows positive growth trend from last 4 years (ref. table 5) Total arrivals and sales were more compared to total supply because during auction nearly 15% of the produce is recycled. Some reasons for recycled are a).if quantity unsold during the auction due to poor/inferior quality/growers not satisfied with offered price then it will come back to the auction centers once again. b) The product which was rejecting by exporters will also come to the market (Ref.Table5a). The above mentioned reasons createe mismatches between arrivals, sales and production. 9

10 Peak season arrivals and prices trend(vandanmedu& Bodi markets): During the current year 2015 (August-September) total arrivals were around 2899 tonnes which is 64% s higher than the same period of previous year arrivals of 1768 tonnes. Prices for the current crop year season (August-September) traded around Rs /kg which is lower than the price for the same period of previous year of Rs per kg (ref.table5b) 10

11 Cost of cultivation: Idukki region Cost of cultivation mainly depends on maintenance and processing costs. For the current crop year ( ), cost of cultivation have been calculated based on Idukki region yield of 450 kg/ha. According to our estimate, overall cost is around Rs 504 /kg as against the previous year cost of Rs 635/kg (ref.table7) However overall total cost is to be around Rs 2,15,966/ha which is 5% higher than the previous year total cost of cultivation of 2,05,966/ha and also so higher than the 4-year average total cost of Rs /ha. But cost per kg has declined due to increased of yield in current season (ref.fig18). In current crop year labor wages, fertilizer cost and processing cost have increased marginally as compared to previous year (ref. table 6) 11

12 Small cardamom export scenario: India is second the largest exporter of cardamom across the world. During , cardamomm crop output declined in Guatemala, creating more demand for Indian small cardamom in international market. In small cardamom (neither crushed nor ground) exports from India increased to 4026 tonnes (ref.fig19) as against the previous year exports of 3600 tonnes. In cardamom oleoresins export from India were around 11 thousands which is lesser than the previous year export of thousands tonnes and also lesser than the 4 years average export of tonnes.(ref:fig19a) The main international markets where our Indian cardamom sold are: Saudi Arabia, U.A.E, Pakistan, and U.S.A and followed by UK (ref fig 20). Import scenario: In small cardamomm imports were around 450 tonnes (ref.fig21) which is lesser than the four years average import of 500 tonnes. To discourage the cheap quality cardamom imports, the government has 12

13 fixed a minimum cost insurance freight value (CIF) of Rs 500 a kg for the imported cardamom. It has also imposed a duty of 70% on small and large cardamom imports. However import of cardamom for the current crop year is estimated to be around 350 tonnes. Demand and supply outlook: Stock carry forward (from previous year) for the current crop is 10% lower than the last year carry forward stocks of 3800 tonnes. In the current season productions is 30% higher than the last year production of tonnes. Import are projected to be around 350 tonnes which is 22% lesser than the last year import of 350 tonnes. Total supply is estimated to be around 25,774 tonnes which is higher than the previous year total supply of tonnes. Export for the current crop season is 7% higher than the previous year exports of 4020 tonnes. Domestic consumption for the current crop year is 1.5% higher than the last year domestic consumption of tonnes. However carry forward stock to next is estimated to be 7474 tonnes which is higher than the previous year carry forward of 3424 tonnes(ref.table8). 13

14 Global outlook:. Guatemala is the world s largest producer, consumer and exporter of cardamom followed by India. For the year , cardamom area is unchanged at previous year area of 69,510 hectares but production is expected to be 28,000 metric tonnes which is 7% less of previous year production of 30,000 metric tonnes (ref.fig22). Guatemala cardamom distributed as follows production is Alta Verapaz 68%, Quiche 14 %, Huehuetenango 8%, Izabal 4 %, Baja Verapaz 2%, and other departments of the republic adding the remaining 4 %. In current season, Coban place (AltaVerpaz Department) has received less rainfall, when crop has reached to flowering season (May- to temperature fluctuation. July) (ref.fig23). Cardamom crop is very sensitive In Guatemala, optimum growth and development is observed in warm and humid condition temperature range of C. However, current crop season temperature is normal (ref.fig24) 14

15 Guatemala export scenario: Guatemala exports 95% of its cardamom production. During (Sep-June) total exports were around 28,500 tonnes for the value of 235 million dollars as against the same period of export of 38,850 tonnes and value of 217 million dollars (ref.fig25). Main importers are U S A, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Lebanon, Germany Kuwait, Pakistan, Jordan, UK, UAE, Syria, Egypt, Switzerland, England, and India, among others are importing of cardamom from Guatemala. Cardamom price trend in international market (New York): Cardamom extra bold 6-7mm grade traded weak at New York spot market. The average prices have violated last year price level of $12.26/kg. So it is a great opportunity for bulk buying as prices are attractive and going forward one could expect lower level of $10-9/Kg. In near term, one could expect cardamom average prices to trade in the range of $13-9/Kg.(ref fig.26) Similarly Fancy Green Cardamom m could stabilize in the zone of $7.25/Kg and further downside looks limited and one could enter bulk contract around current levels of $7.25/Kg.(ref.fig27) 15

16 Technical review: Cardamom average prices at Puttady market continue to struggle for most part of Currently it is traded around Rs.655/kg. Chart action hints at consolidation pattern above base support of Rs.600/kg. So as long this level is valid, the buyers will be interested in the counter. While on the higher side Rs /kg looks possible, only on breach of this level, cardamom average price is going to test Rs.800/kg. MACD hint at sluggishness in prices as it lies in negative territory. Ideal seasonal purchase price level could be around Rs.600/kg. Similarly best cardamom price at Puttady is ruling around Rs.950/kg. It is witnessing accumulation/consolidation above key support of Rs /kg. As long as best cardamom trades above this level, buyer will be active and ideal purchase price could be around Rs.800/kg. However below Rs.750/kg, the price risk could widen till Rs /kg. To witness substantial rally, the buying should sustain above Rs.1000/kg, which could take it towards Rs /kg. 16