1 Next Generation Computing Roadmap FINAL REPORT A study prepared for the European Commission DG Communications Networks, Content & Technology by: Digital Agenda for Europe
2 This study was carried out for the European Commission by eutema GmbH (Austria) in co-operation with Optimat, EPCC and 451 Research Authors: Erich Prem Jörg Irran (eutema), editors; Mark Sawyer, Mark Parsons (EPCC), Csilla Zsigri (451 Research), Ian Morgan and Ashley Stewart (Optimat) Co-ordinator: Erich Prem, eutema prem [at] eutema [dot] com Internal identification Contract: 30-CE /00-42 SMART 2012/0052 DISCLAIMER By the European Commission, Directorate-General of Communications Networks, Content & Technology. The information and views set out in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the official opinion of the Commission. The Commission does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this study. Neither the Commission nor any person acting on the Commission s behalf may be held responsible for the use which may be made of the information contained therein. ISBN DOI: /4587 European Union, All rights reserved. Certain parts are licensed under conditions to the EU.
3 About the authors Erich Prem is a research and innovation strategist based in Vienna, Austria. He is the CEO of eutema and has a background in Computer Science and lectures at the Vienna University of Technology and University of Vienna. Jörg Irran is a computer scientist working as a programme manager and IT consultant in Vienna, Austria. He is a graduated engineer and an experienced computing professional with many years of experience acting both as a researcher and IT consultant and being involved in several scientific and industrial driven research projects. Mark Sawyer is a High Performance Computing specialist with over 20 years of experience managing technology transfer projects between industry and academia. He has been involved in HPC roadmapping activities for the EC, and has acted as a technology advisor and consultant for numerous commercial and public organisations. Mark Parsons is a Professor of High Performance Computing at the University of Edinburgh and Executive Director of EPCC, the supercomputing centre at the university. Over the past 20 years he has led a wide variety of HPC and distributed computing projects ranging from technology transfer projects with industry to lead-edging research projects at the forefront of numerical and data-driven computing. Csilla Zsigri is a multi-skilled and multi-lingual business, management and technology consultant. She is Director of Consulting Services EMEA and member of 451 Advisors, consulting division of The 451 Group, a leading global analyst, data and professional services company. Ian Morgan is a technology strategy and innovation specialist that has carried out numerous technology fore-sighting and road-mapping studies in a variety of enabling technologies and including digital technologies, Internet of Everything and Big Data. Ian has also provides business diversification and strategic growth support to entrepreneurs and start-ups. Ashley Stewart is a strategy consultant based in Scotland, UK. She has both academic and commercial experience, researching and conducting a number of Digital Technologies and ICT projects.
5 Table of Contents 1 Abstract 1 2 Executive Summary Summary Zusammenfassung Résumé analytique 14 3 Background and Methodology Background Methodology 20 4 Scenarios of the Future Background Megatrends and scenario coverage The Digital Citizen: It s all about me The Digital Nation: It s all about us Intelligent Transport: Trains and other Vehicles with Brains Education and Research: Connected brains Future Healthcare: Health and happiness in the digital age Living with scarce resources: Renewtopia Future Manufacturing: At a factory near you Technology needs 43 5 The RTDI challenges 47 6 State-of-Play Our computing environment today High-level European SWOT analysis 56 7 Research Priorities Policy options and recommendations Research programme recommendations Game-changing and disruptive technologies at the horizon 69 8 Roadmap Scenario-specific roadmaps Combined European Roadmap 88 Acknowledgements 89
7 NGC Roadmap Study 1 1 Abstract Over the years computing has evolved to nearly always on web-based mobile computing devices. In the near future we can expect that hardware will become a commodity and the value will be in the software to drive it and the data it generates. The data deluge will require an infrastructure that can transfer and store the data, and computing systems that can analyse and extract value from data in real time. There are arguments suggesting that the computing sector will become increasingly polarised between small application-specific computing units that connect to provide system services, and larger more powerful units that will be required to analyse large volumes of data in real time. This report presents a vision of next generation computing for the next years. It does this by developing a number of visionary scenarios covering key areas of everyday life. Starting from these scenarios, we present a series of technology roadmaps, associated research / development / innovation challenges and recommendations for Europe to exploit the opportunities offered by the next generation of computing. Seven scenarios were carefully developed to address critical aspects of society and economy. Describing how computing will evolve in each of the scenarios has allowed us to describe a series of technology needs that, by considering Europe s current strengths and weaknesses in computing, we could translate into research and innovation challenges for Europe, and into value creation opportunities for the European industry.
8 NGC Roadmap Study 2
9 NGC Roadmap Study 3 2 Executive Summary 2.1 Summary Key Messages Parallel hardware is now mainstream, but parallel software is not. While all consumer CPUs are now multi-core, software is still designed as mainly sequential. The parallelisation of legacy code is very expensive and requires developers with skills in both computer architecture and application domain. European industry needs a new generation of tools for writing software, backed by innovative programming models. New tools should be natively parallel and allow for optimisation of code at run-time across the multiple dimensions of performance, reliability, throughput, latency and energy consumption while presenting the appropriate level of abstraction to developers. Innovative business models may be needed in order to make the development of new generation tools economically viable. High-performance computing meets cyber-physical systems. Applications in automation, aerospace, automotive and manufacturing require computing power which was typical of supercomputers a few years ago, but with constraints on size, power consumption and guaranteed response time which are typical of the embedded applications. This is a market opportunity to build upon the existing strength of European industry to develop a family of innovative and scalable technologies, powering computing devices ranging from the embedded micro-server to the large data centre. Internet of Everything is developing fast. Computing applications merging automation, real-time processing of big data, autonomous behaviour and very low power consumption are changing the physical world we live in, and creating new areas of application like e.g. smart cities, smart homes, etc Data locality is becoming an issue, driving the development of multi-level applications which see processing and data shared between local/mobile devices and cloud-based servers. European industry has the know-how and innovation capacity to be a leader in this area, where issues like interoperable interfaces, privacy and data sharing rules will play a very important role in the development of the market Scenarios for next generation computing Over the years computing has evolved to nearly always on web-based mobile computing devices. In the near future we can expect that hardware will become a commodity and the value will be in the software to drive it and the data it generates. The data deluge will require an infrastructure that can transfer and store the data, and computing systems that can analyse and extract value from data in real time. There are arguments suggesting that the computing sector will become increasingly polarised between small application-specific computing units that connect to provide system services, and larger more powerful units that will be required to analyse large volumes of data in real time. This report presents a vision of next generation computing for the next years. It does this by developing a number of visionary scenarios covering key areas of every day's life. Starting from these scenarios, we present a series of technology roadmaps, associated research / development / innovation challenges and recommendations for Europe to exploit the opportunities offered by the next generation of computing.
10 NGC Roadmap Study 4 Stakeholders throughout Europe were involved in the study through direct contacts and through two separate workshops providing a validation and refinement of the recommendations arising from this study. Seven scenarios were carefully developed to address critical aspects of society and economy. Describing how computing will evolve in each of the scenarios has allowed us to describe a series of technology needs that, by considering Europe s current strengths and weaknesses in computing, we could translate into research and innovation challenges for Europe, and into value creation opportunities for the European industry. Table 1: Overview of scenarios Scenario It s All About Me It s All About Us Trains and other Vehicles with Brains Connected Brains Health & Happiness Renewtopia At a Factory Near You Focus Empowering the individual citizen Communities and how they collaborate Making transport more efficient Research, education and knowledge sharing Health and social well being Sustainability, Energy and resource management Manufacturing in the future A common theme across all scenarios is the need for small low-cost and low-power computing systems that are fully interconnected, self-aware, context-aware and self-optimising within application boundaries. A key element of the value chain is in software and programming methodologies, and this builds on existing strengths in Europe. Moreover, with a particular know-how in industrial and embedded multicore systems, Europe is well placed to support the growth of the infrastructure needed to transfer, store and analyse large volumes of data in real time. This will form the backbone to support the growth of the Internet of Everything and the next generation of Cloud Computing.
11 NGC Roadmap Study Areas of opportunity In this context, we can identify several areas of opportunity for computing in Europe, where investment in research and development can generate significant economic value in terms of exploitation. Cyber-physical systems Building on existing strengths in embedded / cyber physical systems and increasing research in this area will allow maintaining European leadership. Efforts will be focused on implementing a vision of smart networked cyber physical systems, based on manycore lowpower architectures and powered by natively parallel software. Software Research priorities should include autonomous systems together with dynamic and configurable computing including context-aware, self-optimising software and dependable systems. A strong effort is needed on programming models and tools for next-generation systems including native parallel programming and multi-dimensional optimisation (energy, throughput, response time, reliability, resilience). Productivity in parallel software development should be greatly improved, while limiting the need for developers to be skilled in both low-level computer architecture and high-level application domain. Innovative programming models and tools should provide the right level of abstraction to make parallel programming less expensive and more agile. This area will potentially provide strong economic value. Energy Europe is a global leader in energy efficiency and this will be a key requirement in next generation computing. Improvements will apply across the whole computing continuum, from the high performance data centres required to exploit the opportunities offered by big data to the small computing devices used in mobile and embedded applications powering the Internet of Things. High-performance computing will range from cyber-physical systems to industrial and scientific applications, with a variety of solutions scaling across different computing powers but sharing energy efficiency concerns. The economic value of energy efficient computing is potentially very high because it can enable applications which are otherwise not possible in very diverse fields like health, environment, and automation. Computer interfaces Advanced human-computer interfaces will become increasingly important and will support natural and immersive interfaces such as mixed-reality devices. These interfaces will require adequate high performance and real time computing power, as well as research into health, behavioural and psychological issues to humanise our relationship with this new ubiquitous computing landscape. Similarly, advances in security will need computing power to analyse large quantities of data in real time in order to identify threats and provide mitigation actions, and to guarantee the appropriate level of data privacy in different usage scenarios. In this world with large amounts of shared and open data easily available, there will be an increasing need for tools and methodologies to address privacy and security issues. Data and its openness,
12 NGC Roadmap Study 6 consistency and governance will become an area of increasing importance that will either be a key enabler or a high barrier for the effective exploitation of next generation computing. Another cross cutting area will be the need for industry wide interoperable interfaces for data and services, which will be needed for the effective development of the Internet of Everything. There are also several other areas that are arguably outside the timeframe considered in this report, but have nevertheless the potential to become disruptive forces for the next generation of computing. Quantum computing although talked about for many years is still in its infancy but has the potential to solve large scale computational problems orders of magnitude faster than existing systems. New energy sources, computing architectures and energy harvesting and storage systems that allow cyber physical systems to works for years with no need for recharge; this will have revolutionary impact on computing, making always on devices economically feasible and opening the door to disruptive applications. Smart materials beyond implantable and wearable computing, technologies such as printed electronics, biomaterials and graphene have the potential to radically change both the human-computer interface and the way in which computers interact with the physical world Policy support At a policy level, work is needed to ensure that the infrastructure and legislative environment in Europe provides the right conditions for uptake of computing technologies. Easily understood policies on data openness, governance, privacy and sharing, especially across borders, will have to be developed with the collaboration of all involved stakeholders (citizens, local and national governments, industry, SMEs). The Internet of Everything requires a fully connected society and further work is required to develop faster and cheaper internet access, especially mobile access, across Europe. The high costs for large data transfers, the limited coverage of fast mobile networks, and the cost of cross-border data roaming are not compatible with the development of the market. European technology and service providers should be encouraged to cross sell and share technologies across multiple markets to maximise convergence and address common challenges. European governments should lead by example in the openness and sharing of data to stimulate innovation in areas such as public services, energy, environment and Health, by promoting interoperable interfaces and a sustainable market place for services. Further work is still needed to build an innovation eco-system that brings together academia, industry, entrepreneurs and funding organisations, this should also consider cross sector / application collaboration.
13 NGC Roadmap Study 7 Technological and societal changes will create opportunities for new business models, possibly based on open collaboration and on innovative ways of connecting the actors in the value chain. The infrastructure and legislative environment must be able to support and enable value creation both from traditional industrial actors and from new actors like citizens, non-profit organisations, local governments, prosumers, micro-enterprises. Europe is well positioned to benefit from the opportunities that will arise as we move towards the next generation of computing and the society that it will enable. But there will be an increasing challenge for Europe to put in place common communication standards, a policy on open and shared data, seamless cross-border mobile telecommunications services and privacy and security measures that will create the environment for next generation computing and its applications to flourish.
14 NGC Roadmap Study Combined roadmap As a summary, below you can find the combined roadmap for European research derived from the interviews, the desk research, the online-consultation and the experts input at the workshops. It expands the concepts and ideas which are briefly described in this executive summary; the methodology to build it, and its contents, are fully explained in chapters Research priorities and Roadmap of this report.
15 NGC Roadmap Study Zusammenfassung Kernaussagen Parallele Hardware liegt im Trend, nicht aber Parallele Software. Während die CPUs für Konsumenten jetzt multi-core sind, wird Software noch immer vor allem sequentiell entworfen. Die Parallelisierung von Altcode ist sehr teuer und erfordert Entwickler mit Kenntnissen auf dem Gebiet der Computerarchitektur als auch im Anwendungsgebiet. Die Europäische Industrie benötigt eine neue Generation an Werkzeugen für die Softwareentwicklung unterstützt durch innovative Programm-Modelle. Neue Werkzeuge sollten grundlegend parallel sein und die Optimierung des Codes zur Laufzeit über verschiedene Leistungsdimensionen wie Schnelligkeit, Zuverlässigkeit, Durchsatz, Latenz und Energieverbrauch hinweg erlauben und zugleich die passende Abstraktionsebene für Entwickler darstellen. Dabei können auch innovative Geschäftsmodelle nötig werden, um die Entwicklung einer neuen Werkzeuggeneration wirtschaftlich gangbar zu machen. Hochleistungsrechnen und cyber-physikalische Systeme. Anwendungen in Automatisierung, Luftfahrt, Automobilbau und Produktion erfordern eine Rechenleistung, die vor wenigen Jahren für Superrechner typisch war; allerdings mit Einschränkungen hinsichtlich Größe, Leistungsverbrauch und garantierter Antwortzeit, die typisch für integrierte Anwendungen sind. Aufbauend auf bestehenden Stärken der europäischen Industrie stellt dies eine Marktchance dar, um eine Familie innovativer und skalierbarer Technologien zu entwickeln, die Geräte ermöglichen, die von integrierten Mikroservern bis zu großen Datenzentren reichen. Das Internet für Alles entwickelt sich schnell. Computeranwendungen, die Automatisierung, Echtzeitverarbeitung von großen Daten (Big Data), autonomes Verhalten und sehr niedrigen Energieverbrauch verbinden, verändern die physische Welt in der wir leben und erzeugen so neue Anwendungsgebiete, wie z.b. Smart Cities, Smart Homes etc. Datenlokalität wird dabei ein wichtiges Thema, das die Entwicklung bei Mehrebenen-Anwendungen vorantreibt, bei denen Verarbeitung und Daten zwischen lokalen/mobilen Geräten und Cloud-basierten Servern aufgeteilt wird. Die Europäische Industrie verfügt über das Knowhow und die Innovationskraft, um auf diesem Gebiet führend zu sein. Hier werden Themen wie interoperable Interfaces, Datenschutz und Regeln für den Datenaustausch eine wichtige Rolle für die Marktentwicklung spielen Szenarien für die EDV der nächsten Generation EDV hat sich über die Jahre hin zu dauernd verfügbaren web-basierten mobilen Geräten entwickelt. In der nahen Zukunft können wir erwarten, dass Hardware ein Gebrauchsgut wird und dass der Wert in der Software liegen wird, diese zu betreiben, sowie in den dabei generierte Daten. Die Datenflut wird eine Infrastruktur erforderlich machen, welche Daten übertragen und speichern kann, sowie Rechnersysteme, die Daten analysieren können und Mehrwert aus den Daten in Echtzeit generieren.
16 NGC Roadmap Study 10 Es gibt Argumente, die nahe legen, dass der EDV-Sektor zunehmend polarisiert wird zwischen kleinen anwendungsspezifischen Recheneinheiten, die Systemdienste zur Verfügung stellen können und größeren, leistungsfähigeren Einheiten, die für die Analyse großer Datenmengen in Echtzeit nötig sein werden. Dieser Bericht stellt eine Vision für die EDV der nächsten Generation für die kommenden zehn bis fünfzehn Jahre vor. Dies geschieht durch verschiedene visionäre Szenarien, die wesentliche Gebiete des täglichen Lebens abdecken. Ausgehend von diesen Szenarien stellen wir eine Reihe von Technologie-Roadmaps mit den zugehörigen Herausforderungen in Forschung, Entwicklung und Innovation vor und präsentieren Empfehlungen für Europa, um die Chancen, die sich aus der EDV der nächsten Generation ergeben, zu nutzen. Stakeholder in Europa waren direkt bzw. in zwei Workshops in die Erstellung dieser Studie involviert und haben so die sich ergebenden Empfehlungen validiert und verfeinert. Um die wichtigen gesellschaftlichen und wirtschaftlichen Aspekte anzusprechen, wurden sieben Szenarios genauer entwickelt. Die Beschreibung der Evolution der EDV in jedem der Szenarios hat es uns möglich gemacht, eine Reihe von Technologieanforderungen zu beschreiben, die wir unter Bedacht auf Europas derzeitige Stärken und Schwächen in der EDV in Forschungs- und Innovationsherausforderungen für Europa übersetzen konnten und damit in Chancen für die Schaffung von Mehrwert für die europäische Industrie. Tabelle 2: Überblick über die Szenarien Scenario It s All About Me It s All About Us Trains and other vehicles with brains Connected Brains Health & Happiness Renewtopia At a Factory Near You Fokus Ermächtigung des einzelnen Bürgers Gemeinschaften und wie sie zusammenarbeiten Effizienzverbesserung im Verkehr Forschung, Ausbildung und Wissen teilen Gesundheit und soziales Wohlbefinden Nachhaltigkeit, Energie und Ressourcenmanagement Produktion der Zukunft Ein gemeinsames Thema über alle Szenarien hinweg ist der Bedarf an kleinen, günstigen Rechensystemen mit geringem Energiebedarf, die vollverbunden, ich-bewusst, kontextbasiert und selbst-optimierend innerhalb der Anwendungsgrenzen arbeiten. Ein wesentliches Element der Wertschöpfungskette stellen Software und Programmiermethoden dar. Dies baut auf Europäischen Stärken auf. Außerdem ist Europa mit seinem speziellen Knowhow in industriellen und integrierten Multicore-Systemen gut positioniert, um das Wachstum der für den Transfer, die Speicherung und die Analyse von großen Datenmengen in Echtzeit benötigten Infrastruktur zu fördern. Dies wird das Rückgrat bilden, um das Wachstum des Internet der Dinge und der nächsten Generation des Cloud Computing zu unterstützen.
17 NGC Roadmap Study Chancen In diesem Zusammenhang können wir verschiedene Chancen für die EDV in Europa identifizieren, in denen Investitionen in Forschung und Entwicklung bedeutenden wirtschaftlichen Vermarktungswert generieren können. Cyber-physikalische Systeme Auf bestehenden Stärken in integrierten / cyber-physikalischen Systemen aufzubauen und Forschung in diesem Bereich auszudehnen ermöglicht die fortgesetzte Führung Europas in diesem Bereich. Anstrengungen werden auf die Implementierung einer Vision von smarten, vernetzten, cyber-physikalischen Systemen gebündelt, und zwar auf der Grundlage von Mehrkern-, Niedrigenergie-Architekturen und getrieben durch inhärent parallele Software. Software Forschungspriorität sollte auf autonomen Systemen liegen gemeinsam mit dynamischer und konfigurierbarer EDV inklusive kontextabhängiger, selbst-optimierender Software und zuverlässigen Systemen. Verstärkte Anstrengungen sind im Bereich von Programmiermodellen und Werkzeugen für die nächste Generation von Systemen nötig inklusive inhärent paralleler Programmierung und mehrdimensionaler Optimierung (Energie, Durchsatz, Antwortzeit, Zuverlässigkeit, Ausfallsicherheit). Die Produktivität auf dem Gebiet paralleler Softwareentwicklung sollte wesentlich verbessert werden, während die Notwendigkeit für Programmierer, Kenntnisse in low-level Computerarchitektur und highlevel Anwendungsdomänen zu haben, beschränkt bleiben sollte. Innovative Programmiermodelle und -werkzeuge sollten das richtige Abstraktionsniveau zur Verfügung stellen, um paralleles Programmieren billiger und flexibler zu machen. Dieses Gebiet kann einen hohen wirtschaftlichen Wert darstellen. Energie Europa ist weltweit führend auf dem Gebiet der Energieeffizienz. Dies wird eine wesentliche Anforderung in EDV Systemen der nächsten Generation darstellen. Verbesserungen werden den gesamten Bereich der EDV betreffen, von Hochleistungs-Datenzentren für die Nutzung von Chancen durch Massendaten bis hin zu kleinen Geräten, die in mobilen und integrierten Anwendungen eingesetzt werden und das Internet der Dinge ermöglichen. Hochleistungsrechnen wird von cyber-physikalischen Systemen bis zu industriellen und wissenschaftlichen Anwendungen reichen, mit einer Vielzahl an Lösungen, die über verschiedene Rechnerleistungsstufen skalierbar sind und zugleich dem Gedanken an Energieeffizienz gerecht werden. Der wirtschaftliche Wert energieeffizienten Rechnens ist potenziell sehr hoch, weil dieses Anwendungen ermöglicht, die andernfalls in verschiedenen Gebieten nicht möglich sind, z.b. im Bereich Gesundheit, Umwelt und Automatisierung.
18 NGC Roadmap Study 12 Interfaces Fortschrittliche Mensch-Computer Schnittstellen werden immer wichtiger und werden natürliche und sinnlich stimulierende Schnittstellen ermöglichen, wie z.b. mixed-reality Geräte. Diese Schnittstellen erfordern eine adäquat hohe Rechenleistung und Echtzeitverarbeitung; nötig ist aber auch Forschung im Bereich Gesundheit, des Verhaltens und der Psychologie, um unser Verhältnis zu dieser neuen allumfassenden Rechnerlandschaft menschlicher zu machen. In ähnlicher Weise bedürfen Fortschritte auf dem Bereich der Sicherheit jener Rechenleistung, um große Datenmengen in Echtzeit zu analysieren und so Bedrohungen zu identifizieren und Gegenmaßnahmen einzuleiten und um das richtige Maß an Datenschutz in unterschiedlichen Nutzungsszenarien zu garantieren. In unserer Welt, in der eine große Zahl von Daten geteilt und offen frei verfügbar ist, wird es einen steigenden Bedarf für Werkzeuge und Methoden geben, um Themen wie Datenschutz und Datensicherheit anzusprechen. Daten und deren Offenheit, Konsistenz und Regulierung wird ein Gegenstand von steigender Wichtigkeit sein, der entweder ein wesentlicher Faktor oder eine große Barriere für die effektive Nutzung der EDV der nächsten Generation sein wird. Ein weiteres Querschnittsthema stellt der Bedarf an interoperablen Schnittstellen für Daten und Services für die Industrie dar, die für die effektive Entwicklung des Internet für Alles nötig sind. Einige andere Gebiete liegen vielleicht außerhalb des anvisierten Zeithorizonts für diesen Bericht, haben aber dennoch das Potenzial, Störkräfte für die EDV der nächsten Generation zu werden: Quantenrechnen obwohl darüber schon seit vielen Jahren gesprochen wird - steckt immer noch in den Kinderschuhen, hat aber das Potenzial, viele große Berechnungsprobleme um Größenordnungen schneller zu läsen als existierende Systeme Neue Energiequellen, Computerarchitekturen und Energieernte- und Speichersysteme, die es cyber-physikalischen Systemen erlauben, über Jahre hinweg ohne Aufladen zu arbeiten; dies kann zu Revolutionen in Computersystemen führen und ständig verfügbare Geräte wirtschaftlich verfügbar machen, und damit die Tür zu neuen Anwendungen öffnen Intelligente Materialien jenseits implantierbarer und tragbarer Geräte, Technologie wie z.b. druckbare Elektronik, Biomaterialien und Graphen haben das Potenzial, um sowohl die Mensch/Maschine Schnittstelle radikal zu verändern als auch die Art, auf die Computer mit der physischen Welt zusammenarbeiten.
19 NGC Roadmap Study Politikunterstützung Auf politischer Ebene ist die Sicherstellung von Infrastruktur und eines legislativen Rahmens in Europa nötig, welche die richtigen Bedingungen für das Aufgreifen von Computertechnologie sicherstellen. Es sind einfach verständliche Regelungen auf dem Gebiete offener Daten, Regulierung, Datenschutz und Datenaustausch - besonders über Grenzen hinweg - in Zusammenarbeit aller involvierten Stakeholder (Bürger, lokale und nationale Regierungen, Industrie und KMUs) zu entwickeln. Das Internet der Dinge erfordert eine voll vernetzte Gesellschaft. Weitere Arbeiten sind erforderlich, um den Internetzugang schneller und günstiger zu machen, insbesondere der mobile Zugang in ganz Europa. Die hohen Kosten für die Übertragung großer Datenmengen, die beschränkte Abdeckung durch schnelle mobile Netze und die Kosten von grenzüberschreitendem Datenroaming stehen nicht mit der Marktentwicklung im Einklang. Europäische Technologie- und Serviceprovider sind gefordert, Technologien über mehrere Märkte hinweg zu verkaufen und untereinander zu teilen, um die Konvergenz zu maximieren und gemeinsamen Herausforderungen zu begegnen. Europäische Regierungen sollten auf dem Gebiet offener und geteilter Daten mit gutem Beispiel vorangehen, um so Innovation in Bereichen wie öffentlichen Diensten, Energie, Umwelt und Gesundheit zu stimulieren indem interoperable Schnittstellen und ein nachhaltiger Markt für Dienste gefördert werden. Weitere Anstrengungen sind nötig, um ein Innovations-Ökosystem zu schaffen, das wissenschaftliche Einrichtungen, Industrie, Unternehmer und Förderorganisationen zusammenbringt; dies betrifft auch die Zusammenarbeit über verschiedene Sektoren und Anwendungen hinweg. Technologische und gesellschaftliche Veränderungen werden Chancen für neue Geschäftsmodelle schaffen, möglicherweise basierend auf offener Zusammenarbeit und auf innovativen Arten, die Akteure in der Wertschöpfungskette zusammenzubringen. Die Infrastruktur und der rechtliche Rahmen müssen in der Lage sein, die Wertschöpfung sowohl durch hergebrachte Industrieakteure als auch durch neue Akteure wie Bürger, Nichtregierungsorganisationen, lokale Regierungen, Prosumer und Kleinstunternehmer zu ermöglichen. Europa ist gut positioniert, um von den Chancen zu profitieren, die sich bieten während wir uns hin zur nächsten Generation von Rechensystemen und die Gesellschaft, die sie möglich macht, bewegen. Aber die Herausforderungen für Europa nehmen zu: Es sind gemeinsame Kommunikationsstandards, Regelungen für offene und geteilte Daten, nahtlose grenzüberschreitende mobile Telekommunikation und Datenschutz- und Datensicherheitsregeln aufzustellen, welche die Bedingungen für die EDV der nächsten Generation und für florierende Anwendungen schaffen.
20 NGC Roadmap Study Résumé analytique Messages clés Alors que le parallélisme du matériel informatique est désormais incontournable, les logiciels parallèles ne le sont toujours pas. Alors que les CPU du commerce sont des processeurs multicœurs, le logiciel est encore conçu de façon séquentielle. La «parallélisation» des logiciels est très coûteuse et nécessite des développeurs dotés de compétences aussi bien en architecture informatique que dans le domaine des applications. L'industrie européenne a besoin d'une nouvelle génération d'outils de développement logiciel, soutenue par des modèles de programmes novateurs. Les nouveaux outils doivent d'emblée être parallèles et garantir l'optimisation des codes à l'exécution, en termes de performance, fiabilité, débit de traitement, temps d'attente et consommation d'énergie, tout en présentant le niveau adéquat d'abstraction aux développeurs. De nouveaux modèles commerciaux peuvent s'avérer nécessaires pour rendre le développement des outils de nouvelle génération économiquement viable. Le calcul haute performance au service des systèmes cyber-physiques. Dans les industries de l'automatisation, de l'aéronautique et de l'automobile ainsi que dans le secteur manufacturier, les applications nécessitent des capacités informatiques caractéristiques des super ordinateurs d'il y a quelques années, mais avec les contraintes de taille, de consommation d'énergie et de temps de réponse garanti typiques des applications embarquées. Il s'agit là d'une opportunité pour développer sur la base des forces existantes de l'industrie européenne une nouvelle génération de technologies novatrices et évolutives allant des micro-serveurs embarqués aux grands centres de calcul. L'Internet des objets se développe de manière accélérée. Les applications informatiques combinant à la fois automatisation, traitement en temps réel de gros volumes de données, comportement autonome et très faible consommation d'énergie permettent de changer le monde physique dans lequel nous vivons et de créer de nouveaux domaines d'application, à l'instar des villes et des maisons «intelligentes», etc. La localisation des données devient un facteur important pour favoriser le développement d'applications multi-échelles permettant le traitement et le partage des données entre les appareils locaux/mobiles et les serveurs basés sur le cloud computing (informatique en nuage). L'industrie européenne dispose du savoir-faire et des capacités d'innovation nécessaires pour faire d'elle le leader dans les domaines où les questions relatives aux interfaces interopérables et aux règles de confidentialité et de partage des données joueront un très grand rôle dans le développement du marché Scénarios de l'informatique de nouvelle génération Au fil des ans, l'informatique a évolué, créant des appareils informatiques mobiles «presque toujours connectés» et basés sur le web. Dans un avenir proche, on peut s'attendre à ce que le matériel ne devienne qu'un simple produit et que la valeur ajoutée réside dans le logiciel, tout comme dans les données qu'il génère. Ce déluge de données nécessitera une infrastructure qui pourra transférer et sauvegarder les données, ainsi que des systèmes informatiques capables d'analyser et d'extraire en temps réel la valeur de ces données. Certains sont d'avis que le secteur informatique deviendra de plus en plus focalisé sur de petits centres informatiques dédiés à des applications spécifiques pouvant se connecter entre eux pour offrir des services ciblés, et sur des centres plus grands et plus puissants nécessaires pour l'analyse en temps réel de grands volumes de données.
21 NGC Roadmap Study 15 Le présent rapport présente une vision de l'informatique de nouvelle génération pour les 10 à 15 prochaines années. Il est fondé sur un certain nombre de scénarios visionnaires couvrant les principaux domaines de la vie quotidienne. Partant de ces scénarios, nous présentons une série de feuilles de routes sur les technologies, les défis qui y sont associés en termes de recherche / de développement / d'innovation, ainsi que des recommandations pour l'exploitation, par l'europe, des opportunités offertes par la prochaine génération de l'informatique. Des intervenants de toute l Europe ont été impliqués dans cette étude, par le biais de contacts directs et via deux séminaires, afin de valider et d'affiner les recommandations découlant de cette étude. Sept scénarios ont été minutieusement élaborés dans le cadre de la résolution des principaux problèmes sociaux et économiques. En décrivant l'évolution de l'informatique dans chacun des scénarios, nous avons pu présenter un ensemble de besoins technologiques qui, compte tenu des forces et faiblesses actuelles de l'europe dans le domaine de l'informatique, peuvent se traduire par des défis auxquels l'europe est confrontée en matière de recherche et d'innovation, et par des possibilités de création de valeur pour l'industrie européenne. Tableau 3: Aperçu des scénarios Nom du scenario It s All About Me (Il ne s agit que de moi) It s All About Us (Il ne s agit que de nous) Trains and other vehicles with brains (Transport et trains intelligents) Centre d intérêt Renforcement de l autonomie du citoyen Communautés et leurs modes de collaboration Rendre les transports plus efficaces Connected Brains (Cerveaux connectés) Recherche, éducation et partage des connaissances Health & Happiness (Santé et Bonheur) Renewtopia At a Factory Near You (Dans une usine près de vous) Santé et bien-être social Viabilité, gestion de l énergie et des ressources Fabrication dans l avenir L'un des thèmes communs à tous les scénarios est la nécessité de petits systèmes informatiques peu coûteux et à faible consommation énergétique, entièrement interconnectés, sensibles au contexte et capables d'auto-optimisation dans les limites de l application. Un élément important de la chaîne de valeur réside dans le logiciel et les méthodes de programmation, basés sur les forces existantes de l'europe. En plus, avec un savoir-faire exceptionnel dans le domaine des systèmes multi-cœurs industriels et intégrés, l'europe est bien placée pour favoriser le développement des infrastructures nécessaires au transfert, à la sauvegarde et à l'analyse en temps réel de gros volumes de données. Ceci constituera l'ossature de la mise en place de l «Internet des objets» et du cloud computing (informatique en nuage) de nouvelle génération.
22 NGC Roadmap Study Domaines d'opportunités Dans ce contexte, nous pouvons identifier plusieurs domaines d'opportunités en matière d'informatique en Europe, dans lesquels l'investissement dans la recherche et le développement peut générer une valeur économique considérable. Systèmes cyber-physiques L'utilisation des forces existantes dans le domaine des systèmes embarqués / systèmes cyber-physiques et l'intensification des recherches dans ce domaine permettront à l'europe de garder son leadership. Les efforts seront concentrés sur la mise en œuvre d'une vision de systèmes cyber-physiques en réseau, intelligents, basés sur des architectures multi-cœurs à faible consommation fonctionnant avec des logiciels parallèles natifs. Logiciel Les priorités de recherche doivent inclure les systèmes autonomes ainsi que l'informatique dynamique et reconfigurable, y compris les systèmes sensibles au contexte, auto-optimisants et fiables. De grands efforts doivent être réalisés dans le cadre des modèles et outils de programmation pour les systèmes de nouvelle génération, notamment dans la programmation parallèle et l'optimisation multidimensionnelle (énergie, débit de traitement, temps de réponse, fiabilité, résilience). La productivité en matière de développement de logiciels parallèles doit être considérablement améliorée, réduisant ainsi le besoin pour les développeurs d'être qualifiés aussi bien en architecture des ordinateurs que dans le domaine des applications de haut niveau. Les modèles et outils de programmation novateurs doivent apporter le niveau d'abstraction adéquat pour faire de la programmation parallèle une activité moins coûteuse et plus flexible. Ce domaine sera probablement d'une valeur économique considérable. Énergie L'Europe est un leader mondial en termes d'efficacité énergétique, principale exigence pour l'informatique de nouvelle génération. Des progrès seront apportés sur l'ensemble du continuum de l'informatique, allant des centres de calcul haute performance nécessaires à l'exploitation des opportunités offertes par les gros volumes de données, aux petits appareils informatiques utilisés pour les applications mobiles et embarquées alimentant l'internet des objets. Le calcul haute performance va s étendre des systèmes cyber-physiques aux applications industrielles et scientifiques, avec un éventail de solutions utilisant différents niveaux de puissance de calcul, mais ayant en commun les préoccupations liées à l'efficacité énergétique. La valeur économique de l'informatique éco-énergétique est potentiellement très élevée, car elle permet de nouvelles applications dans divers domaines, tels que la santé, l'environnement et l'automatisation.
23 NGC Roadmap Study 17 Interfaces informatiques Le perfectionnement des interfaces homme-machine sera d'une importance considérable et rendra possible des interfaces naturelles et immersives, tels que les périphériques de réalité augmentée. Ces interfaces nécessiteront une puissance de calcul élevée et en temps réel, tout comme des recherches dans le domaine de la santé, de la psychologie et du comportement, afin d'humaniser notre relation avec ce nouveau paysage de l'informatique omniprésente. De même, les progrès à réaliser en matière de sécurité nécessiteront des capacités informatiques pour l'analyse en temps réel de grands volumes de données, en vue d'identifier les menaces, de prendre les mesures correctives nécessaires, et de garantir le niveau approprié de confidentialité des données dans les différents domaines d'utilisation. Dans ce monde doté de grands volumes de données partagées et librement accessibles, le besoin en outils et méthodes de résolution des questions liées à la confidentialité et à la sécurité s'avérera considérable. Les données, ainsi que leur disponibilité, cohérence et gouvernance, deviendront un domaine de haute importance qui sera soit un catalyseur clé, soit un obstacle notoire pour l'exploitation effective de l'informatique de nouvelle génération. Un autre domaine intersectoriel sera la nécessité d'interfaces interopérables pour les données et services à l'échelle industrielle, élément clé du développement effectif de l'«internet des objets». Il existe également plusieurs autres domaines qui sont sans doute en dehors des délais spécifiés dans le présent rapport, mais qui ont néanmoins le potentiel de devenir des forces perturbatrices pour l'informatique de nouvelle génération. L informatique quantique bien que débattue depuis de nombreuses années - en est encore à ses débuts, mais offre des perspectives prometteuses, pour résoudre des problèmes informatiques d'envergure, plusieurs ordres de grandeur plus rapide que les systèmes existants. De nouvelles sources d'énergie, de nouvelles architectures informatiques et de nouveaux systèmes de production et de stockage d'énergie permettront aux systèmes cyber-physiques de fonctionner pendant des années sans avoir besoin d'être rechargés. Ceci aura un impact révolutionnaire sur l'informatique, rendra économiquement viables les dispositifs «always on» (à connexion permanente) et ouvrira la porte à des applications novatrices. Matériaux intelligents : au-delà de l'informatique vestimentaire et implantable, des technologies à l'instar des systèmes électroniques imprimés, des biomatériaux et des graphènes sont capables de changer radicalement aussi bien l'interface homme-machine que la manière dont les ordinateurs communiquent avec le monde physique.
24 NGC Roadmap Study Appui des politiques Au niveau des politiques, beaucoup doit être fait afin d'assurer que les infrastructures et le cadre législatif en Europe fournissent les meilleures conditions pour l'adoption des technologies informatiques. Des politiques faciles à comprendre relatives à l'ouverture, la gouvernance, la confidentialité et le partage des données, particulièrement au-delà des frontières, doivent être mises en place avec la collaboration de tous les acteurs concernés (citoyens, gouvernements locaux et nationaux, industries, PME). L'«Internet des objets» nécessite une société entièrement connectée et des efforts supplémentaires sont nécessaires pour rendre l'internet à haut débit moins coûteux et accessible, particulièrement pour l'internet mobile dans toute l'europe. Les coûts élevés des transferts de grands volumes de données, la couverture limitée des réseaux mobiles haut débit et le coût des services de données en itinérance ne sont pas compatibles avec le développement de ce marché. Les fournisseurs de technologie et de services européens doivent être encouragés dans la pratique des ventes croisées et le partage des technologies dans plusieurs marchés, afin de maximiser la convergence et de faire face aux défis communs. Les gouvernements européens doivent montrer l'exemple dans le domaine de l'ouverture et du partage des données, de manière à stimuler l'innovation dans des secteurs tels que les services publics, l'énergie, l'environnement et la santé, en promouvant des interfaces interopérables et un marché durable pour les services. Des efforts supplémentaires sont nécessaires pour la mise en place d'un écosystème novateur qui rassemblera monde universitaire, industrie, entrepreneurs et organismes de financement, tout en prenant en compte la collaboration intersectorielle / inter-applicative. Les changements technologiques et sociétaux offriront des opportunités pour de nouveaux modèles d'entreprises, probablement basés sur une collaboration ouverte et sur des méthodes novatrices de connexion des acteurs de la chaîne de valeur. Les infrastructures et le cadre législatif doivent être en mesure de prendre en charge et de favoriser la création de valeur, aussi bien par les acteurs industriels traditionnels que par de nouveaux acteurs, comme les citoyens, les organisations à but non lucratif, les gouvernements locaux, les «prosommateurs» et les micro-entreprises. L'Europe est bien placée pour tirer profit des opportunités qui se présenterons au fur et à mesure que nous avancerons vers l'informatique de nouvelle génération et vers la société qu'elle engendra. Toutefois, l'europe sera confrontée à un défi majeur dans la mise en place de normes de communication communes, d une politique sur les données ouvertes et partagées, de services de télécommunication mobile transfrontaliers uniformisés ainsi que de mesures de sécurité et de confidentialité, qui, ensemble, promouvront le contexte nécessaire à l'informatique de nouvelle génération, ainsi que ses applications.
25 NGC Roadmap Study 19 3 Background and Methodology 3.1 Background Computing is undergoing a significant transformation. The chart below provides a progressive view of computing from 1970 to This illustrates the evolution of different aspects of computing such as hardware, software, service, connectivity, among others, and in light of the governing megatrends and business models. Figure 1: The Evolution of Computing This figure demonstrates that computing is moving towards an always connected, ubiquitous networked society where citizens work collaboratively, have access to low cost and low power hardware and can customize their software and apps to meet their own needs. As such we are now living in the era of personalised smart computing where tablets, smartphones and other connecting devices take center stage. Additionally, the business models of the computing industry are also undergoing transformation, as there is a significant shift towards a service oriented approach rather than direct sales. Paradoxically, of the major changes in ICT research and its increasingly pervasive nature can sometimes hinder a clear view of where the grand challenges are and how the future may look. Although computing has undergone dramatic developments and radical changes in the last years there is no reason to believe that its dynamics will decelerate any time soon. Computing benefits from recent advances in nanotechnology, photonics, biochemistry and other disciplines, but it is also a major driver behind these fields. This facilitates the continued emergence of new generations of components and systems including new and unconventional approaches of a breakthrough character.
26 NGC Roadmap Study 20 Moreover, computing related research is not limited to the ICT sector itself but rather widely spread among other industries, scientific fields and technologies and in addition linked to radical new ideas, future technologies and breakthrough/frontier research. From decoding the DNA to simulations in particle physics, computing has become a major driver behind scientific knowledge itself. This emphasises the importance of ICT research in general and research on the future of computing in particular. The last 40 years have been a golden era for computing; processing, connectivity and storage have all undergone relentless growth in capability and performance, while getting cheaper to procure. The impact in economic and societal terms has been profound, and has raised high expectations among the population at large. We are however reaching an inflection point. The technologies that underpin ICT are reaching fundamental limits that will have a profound impact on our ability to make progress, while demand for more performance and capability increases steeply. 3.2 Methodology The methodology is designed to provide a technology roadmap for next generation computing (NGC) that will help to direct the research themes within Horizon The methodology, the aggregation of information and coverage of various input sources - expert workshops, stakeholder interviews, online questionnaire, desk research, SWOT analysis, value chain analysis etc. is structured into work packages as depicted in Figure 2: Methodology and Work package overview. Four main work packages are driving the study: consultation, analysis, forecast and strategy. The process flow of interconnecting existing data, various input sources and analysis parts is depicted in Figure 3 and described thereafter. Throughout the course of the study we conducted desk research. This literature review supported the market and SWOT analysis, identification of stakeholders, understanding of supply and value chains, provided forecasts of existing and future services and applications and also suggested potential scenarios. To validate the findings from market data and to explore the computing landscape further, we conducted a number of stakeholder interviews with industry, technology industry, academia and RTDI programme managers. The interviews were semi-structured and the discussion focussed on: Market trends and disruptive innovations Game changing products and services Future competitive strategies Unsatisfied needs European strengths and weaknesses Industry ecosystems Collaboration and cooperative competition We further conducted in-depth interviews with stakeholders that were primarily small and medium businesses with headquarters based in Europe. The stakeholders had the following areas of expertise: Datacentres (facilities & technologies) Cloud Computing, Telecommunications & Mobile Computing Hardware, Systems & Servers Virtualisation Software (enterprise, proprietary, open source, simulation & visualisation) Energy efficiency
27 WP 4 Strategy WP 2 Analysis WP 3 Forecast WP 1 Consultation NGC Roadmap Study 21 The interviews supported the identification of stakeholders, value chains and supply chains across a range of associated industries, forecast of existing services and future services, SWOT analysis and research and innovation challenges. KEY Verification Industry Interviews Desk Research Interviews Online Survey RTD Programme Mgrs Academic interviews Workshop 1 Workshop 2 Industry Technology Interviews INDUSTRY Key stake holders and market players Academic Interviews TECHNOLOGY DEMAND & EVOLUTION Forecase of Existing Services Supply and value chain TECHNOLOGY Future Applications TechnologyNeeds Visionary Application Scenarios Strengths of European Countries (research & funding) S + W POLICY European SWOT Analysis O + T Research, Development and Innovation (RDI) Challenges Programme Scenarios(5) plus roadmaps Figure 2: Methodology and Work package overview We also conducted an online survey. The purpose of the survey was to reach a broader audience than the interviews, and presented respondents with an opportunity have their say on what is important for computing in Europe over the next ten years and beyond. The survey was completed by 173 respondents. The majority were from research/academic institutions (82%), and describe their organisations as European (50%). The respondents report that they support software (70%) and consultancy (65%) (more details can be found in the appendix online questionnaire ). Workshops were also completed to validate findings and were one of the key elements of the comparative analysis of potential options for a roadmap-based initiative on next generation computing. The first workshop pursued two main objectives: 1. The discussion of computing related mega trends that are most likely to shape the future of computing 2. The development of several visionary scenarios.
28 NGC Roadmap Study delegates attended the first workshop and were from both industrial and research organisations. The workshop was very much an active and participatory led workshop and the goal of the plenary session was to discuss uncertainties for the next 10 years. Breakout groups were established: one group focused on megatrends and three additional groups focused on sketching scenarios that were influenced by the plenary discussion. The study team used the outcomes of the workshop to design visionary scenarios for next generation computing. The aim of the second workshop was to finalise the visionary scenarios, describe next generation computing, draft research and technology requirements and collect expert stakeholder views on a research roadmap that will prepare Europe for the future. Figure 3: Methodological process The outcome of the introduced instruments such as desk research, interviews, online questionnaire, expert workshops, etc. was the base for being able to construct scenarios of the future and corresponding roadmaps as well as to present recommendations for future work programme foci as presented in the succeeding sections. For additional and more detailed information on the outcome of the introduced modules please also refer to the annex document.
29 NGC Roadmap Study 23 4 Scenarios of the Future 4.1 Background In this section we present selected visions of the future to illustrate how next generation computing might enable applications in various walks of life. The purpose of this exercise is to deduce the RTDI challenges that would have to be overcome if the scenarios are to be realised. The scenarios are based on known current technology and market trends, but also inspired by some degree of imagination (as is essential when thinking about the future). There is the assumption that new and potentially disruptive technology can be developed and will find applications of the future. There is overlap between the scenarios, which is to be expected if there are to be in any way realistic. The scenarios should therefore not be thought of as strong predictions of the future, nor as the ideal towards which we should be aiming, but rather as a vehicle for us to understand the potential for NGC in a variety of contexts, and as a tool to identify important RTDI topics The scenarios we have constructed are as follows: The Digital Citizen: It s all about me. This scenario is focussed on the individual as a consumer of digital services in the future. The Digital Nation: It s all about us. This scenario is focussed on the responsibilities of a nation state and how these could be affected by NGC. Intelligent Transport: Trains and other vehicles with brains. This scenario deals with intelligent transport from the user and provider viewpoints. Education and Research: Connected brains. This scenario investigates how NGC will enable new modes of research and learning. Future Healthcare: Health and happiness in the digital age. This scenario deals with the provision of healthcare from both the patient and provider viewpoints. Living with scarce resources: Renewtopia. This scenario covers the general trend of scarcity of resources, in particular energy, with a special emphasis on renewable energy, its generation, storage and use, and how these will both drive NGC and open up application areas that are enabled by NGC. Future Manufacturing: At a factory near you. This scenario is one view of how manufacturing could change in the future, the opportunities for NGC to facilitate those changes and the associated challenges. 4.2 Megatrends and scenario coverage When developing the scenarios, we took into account governing megatrends, as well as more specific technology trends. Intelligence gained through in-depth interviews, desk research and online surveys revealed the following technology trends (see also annex document): More with less - density, energy and cost Software driven world Cloud and hybrid
30 NGC Roadmap Study 24 Mobile computing and Internet of Things Open and build your own approaches Converged and integrated systems In addition to these technology trends there are more generic, global and interrelated trends that will influence future developments. These include: Demographic change, a notable example being the growth in the proportion of older people in developed economies. Increased urbanisation. Greater mobility of the population. Scarcity of resource such as materials, water, energy and viable agricultural land. Climate change as a result of mankind s activities. Rapidly evolving business models How the scenarios were designed around these technological and more general megatrends to cover political, economic, societal and technological areas and challenges is depicted in Figure 4. By covering various areas and being based on the outcome of the various instruments used in this study the scenarios are representing a broad range of future applications and technology areas. Figure 4 Scenarios are designed to cover various areas
31 NGC Roadmap Study The Digital Citizen: It s all about me This scenario is driven by an increasingly mobile and (almost) permanently on-line population demanding a personalised digital experience and control of their privacy. Digital citizens will expect information and services available to enrich their lives they expect the cyber landscape to work for them, help them, make them feel safe and secure, and that opens up opportunities. They do not expect it to be intrusive, nor feel as if it is running their lives. They enjoy control and personalisation of their digital experience. Some of their interaction with the digital landscape is direct, by means of a personal device, and some is ambient through devices, sensors and interfaces that are built into the environment. The key aspect of the digital citizen of the future s interactions is that they can control their experience and privacy. For example the digital citizen may expect to have the right to be digitally forgotten in other words for some or all of their online activity to leave no permanent record, and to be informed if there is a breach of their privacy The Scenario The citizens of the future expect to be connected at all times to online services and information. They will expect their connectivity to be continuous and seamless as they move around. The idea of having to find somewhere with WI-FI connectivity or worrying about roaming charges is outdated and alien. Connection to the future Internet is cheap, reliable, ubiquitous and invisible. The digital citizens are sensitive to the price of services and are confident and able to compare and select services. They have become conscious of lock-in, and seek services and systems that they can switch between easily. They are security conscious but not paranoid. They are the successor to the first generation of mobile internet users, for whom novelty was a selling point. The citizens of 2020 and beyond look more directly for benefits and costs of the services and systems that they use. They have almost no tolerance of services that are unreliable. Services that enhance quality of life and leisure time will be in high-demand, with gaming likely to continue as a massive market that will drive many aspects of technology from components, software, displays and augmented reality. Their position in the value chain is both as consumer of services, and generators of data. The latter may be directly by sharing a wide range of assets such as photos, restaurant reviews, creative works and so on, and also indirectly by allowing profile data to be collected and used by third parties. Willingness to allow such profile information to be gathered will be variable among users; some will value privacy highly, while others are willing to exchange access to their profile data in exchange, say, for lower price services Application example: The Smart Stadium The way in which the digital citizen interacts with the cyber landscape can be illustrated by envisaging the future digital citizen at a stadium attending a major sporting event. You arrive at the stadium, where you are directed by a smart system run by the stadium to the right entrance. The stadium can identify that you have arrived because you have allowed it to recognise your smartphone (or something else that you carry) when you are in range of its network. Your social network, which you have also allowed to know your location, looks up whether any of your friends are also at the event, and informs you. It suggests that you have time to meet at the bar beforehand.
32 NGC Roadmap Study 26 You tell the social network that you prefer to wait until half-time, and the social network, knowing your preferences, reserves a space at the bar easiest to get to from where you are all sitting and lets your friends know the plan. The stadium confirms the validity of your virtual ticket and you are allowed into the stadium. You are credited with access to commentaries, replays, highlights and analysis as standard. You can upgrade to premium services if you wish (some stadiums even have fleets of mini drones carrying tiny HD video cameras that you can try out, but you think this is a bit of a gimmick. Instead you prefer to use the camera-net application that allows you to see the views from other people s devices in return for allowing the same on your phone for other users). If you don t have an account with the company that runs these additional services, your software agent suggests (via your smartphone) a range of additional services that you might want as a pay as you go option. As a digital citizen you have become used to this business model of a personal software agent suggesting what you might be interested in, and paying for things electronically. The payments are authorised using biometrics, either using a device you carry or a mobile paypoint in the stadium. Behind the scenes your bank is running complex anti-fraud software to protect both you and itself against cyber-crime. This has become increasingly important as so many transactions are done electronically from customers on the move. Cash still persists, because its anonymity still has attractions, but digital payments are by far the dominant type. Your seat environment contains all you need to enjoy the event, including digital glasses and headset that allow you to access the match programme, camera views and commentary, depending on your viewing package. Of course you can easily use your own display glasses if you want to (around you a few people can even be seen with old-style tablets). It s easy to set up the commentary you want and the viewing angles you might want to have as shortcuts. The system allows you to simulate a few views so that you can tune them and quickly switch as the game progresses. This is important, as even though you are surrounded by all this technology and you expect everything to be personalised, it s a real match with a real ball played at
33 NGC Roadmap Study 27 real speed. The real-time experience is still the main part of the occasion and the technology has to be up to the job. At half-time you join your friends at the bar for that meeting suggested by your social network. Your social network realises that you have made the meeting together, and suggests that, since it knows it s been a long time since you last time met face to face, you might want it to make a dinner reservation according to your group preferences. You are comfortable with this type of interaction with social networks, provided you have control over levels of privacy and the level of interaction. Software companies have invested heavily in designing agents that will act on your behalf there is big money to be made from this. After the match finishes, the stadium empties efficiently. The designers used complex simulations of the physical design and information systems, coupled with varying models of crowd behaviour to come up with a stadium that allow efficient and safe movement of people. Simulations are also carried out in real time to ensure that safety problems will not arise. Outside the stadium a pool of self-driving electric cars is available, some owned by the stadium and some by taxi firms. The queues are managed efficiently, and a car is chosen for you depending on how quickly you need to get to your destination and whether you are willing to share. Payments are all made automatically. The traffic management in the stadium vicinity has been switched to a mode to cope with the traffic volume at the stadium. The traffic management system knows about the destination of each vehicle and directs each one accordingly, optimising the flow. Priority routes are available to those who can afford it and the traffic management system deals with all the authentication and authorisation issues. All this is unobtrusive; each vehicle receives its route instructions directly and in real-time, whether it is in self-driving mode or being driven by a human (which still happens, but is becoming increasingly rare). As you approach your home, your home management system knows you are arriving and starts the utilities it can predict that you will need (bearing in mind it already knows about your possible dinner arrangement). You gain access to your house using a biometric based security system, and tell your personal software agent to confirm the dinner idea it suggested earlier. Your agent knows that you live within walking distance of the down-town restaurant it has reserved and knows that you like to walk, so it tells you that it will just arrange a taxi home. As you prepare to leave, the agent politely reminds you that rain is forecast later, so taking an umbrella might be a sensible idea. 4.4 The Digital Nation: It s all about us The scenario describes the interactions between individual and society (other individuals) and the state (national and EU government, law enforcement etc). The state s responsibilities clearly interface to other areas such as education, healthcare and transport where state and private sector begin to overlap The Scenario Governments will be replacing as much paperwork as possible with digital services. Smart environments will be prevalent (smart city, road, etc). Some members of society see this as a benefit, offering opportunities, information and security. For others it is seen as intrusive, invasive and untrustworthy. Privacy issues will be a major issue. Some citizens may resort to ways of subverting what they see as surveillance. The state may choose to outlaw some of these methods which may create further tensions.
34 NGC Roadmap Study 28 Governments will appreciate that infrastructure projects will probably have greatest value if they can interact. The providers will need to develop interoperable services which will require common standards to be used, and which will require data-integration technologies. The service providers will drive the technology needs to be able to provide the services in a cost effective way. States will of course out-source many of these services. Government contractors (especially in IT) do not have a good reputation. Uptake of the services may be tarnished by this populations may decide they don t trust them before they have even been rolled out. Defence is an area where governments will need NCG to support conventional defence systems and digital threats. Major defence companies are likely to continue to be recipients of considerable investment for research. NCG will be needed both in the deployments (for example missile guidance and detection) and in the design tools used (for example HPC simulation tools). The need to defend against cyber-attacks may change the defence policy of states significantly. Whereas the digital criminals will generally be aiming to accumulate wealth through illegal means, cyber-attacks will be aimed at causing damage and disruption to national infrastructure. Sources of attack will include full scale attack by another state (unlikely), attack by terrorist/activist groups (highly likely) and the low-level hacker (the digital equivalent of graffiti, and an ever-present threat). Resilience against attacks will need to be an inherent property of all services and infrastructures, whether state maintained or not. Monitoring networks and detecting threats will be a major activity of the defence and security services There may be a demand for personal encryption systems. Management of encryption keys is the main issue here: webs of trust may evolve. Centralised Public Key Infrastructure (PKI) may not be regarded as secure by some privacy activists since the roots of trust might be seen as capable of being influenced, for example by government or big business. The proportion of people who understand the issues well is likely to be small, but how people will react will affect how governments can use NGC. Anonymity will still be attractive (cash for example will still be in use). NGC will be important in education in two ways; to enable advanced teaching methods and as a subject in itself. We have relied to date on life experience of using ICT; this should be taught properly to the next generation of students. Schools will be high-tech places with NCG used for many aspects of learning. Informed decision making, particularly about the realities of security, will help define the future use of digital marketplace and services. States will want to find a way to raise money from the new technologies and the economic activities they stimulate, but will want to do so without stifling economic growth or alienating consumers. Tax systems will come under scrutiny, as they have not caught up with modern ways of business. Companies have been criticised by using loopholes to avoid paying tax, and in the digital era this appears to be too easy for them. They will continue to do this, obviously. Governments will also want to use NCG to have a more productive workforce by enabling those who are currently not economically active to become so (for example more part time work for disabled, pensioners, part time workers, those in remote areas etc.). They are likely to do this by providing incentives for individuals and service providers (for example for getting good internet access into remote areas, providing training etc). One of the assets managed by the state is the electromagnetic spectrum. Licensing of this can raise money for states; conditions on the licensing deals can ensure that the licensees (for example
35 NGC Roadmap Study 29 telecommunication companies) make the best use of it for national benefit, and do not squat. There need to be incentives (or laws) to ensure that operators use or lose their bandwidth Application example: Emergency response A fire starts in a major public place, in this example a shopping complex. Within the complex, an intelligent network of sensors detects the outbreak of fire and track it s progress. The network is installed and operated by a private company, but is subject to health and safety regulation part of which requires it to interact with public emergency services. When the public emergency response services are alerted, they immediately create an incident management centre to control the operation. The computing and communications infrastructures must allow for a control centre to be set up almost instantaneously to access the data and networking. Emergency teams would need to be able to predict the progress of the fire, which would need data on the buildings to be instantly accessible from a database, simulation tools and the necessary computing power, and the ability to rapidly evaluate different courses of action. The emergency response team is able to evaluate different strategies to carry out an effective evacuation and to tackle the fire. This will be made possible by the use of advanced simulation tools together with HPC available on demand. A key issue in managing the emergency will be the ability to detect and track people. Technologies to do so for their own security would be useful however there are potentially massive privacy issues. Locating people through their smart phone or other device might be possible, but mandating that people always carry such a device for safety reasons would likely be impractical and would attract fierce opposition from many citizens. Sensor technology that could detect whether people were trapped inside the building without needing any identity information is more likely to be used in the relief effort.
36 NGC Roadmap Study 30 Control and management systems for other infrastructure (for example public transport) would need to interface with the emergency teams so that contingent disruption could be managed. Some of these infrastructures will be privately operated, requiring interaction between public and private systems Application example: Cyber-crime prevention Digital crime will increase in the future. Fraudulent on-line transactions may replace burglary as the crime the public fears. Public will demand that devices such as phones, laptops etc (which we will most likely still be using) are not useful to criminals if stolen and do not pose risk to the owners if lost. In other words, theft of a phone or other personal device should not mean the thief can impersonate you on-line. Theft of data will be as serious a crime as a theft of tangible assets or money. This will apply to individuals as well as companies and government. It will be unrealistic to assume that intrusion will not happen, and perimeter models of security will be outdated. Intrusion detection will need to be highly sophisticated. Major international cybercrime organisations will exist in the future. There will need to be a big effort on international (and pan European) efforts to detect and prevent crime. State will drive the need for technologies that will support this. Cyber-crime prevention will require advanced methods of analysing behaviour to detect potential criminal activity. This will need major advances in modelling and simulation software, high performance computing and data analysis tools to detect intrusion, together with encryption technologies easily usable by the public to limit unauthorised use of data. Some technologies that will be needed in preventing crime may also be of use to the criminals themselves (face and image recognition, software to analyse behaviour etc). There may be a need to licence some these technologies. Enforcing this will be a challenge. The public needs to be educated about digital security and good practice needs to be understood. This education process will need to start at an early age schools will include this in the curriculum with the same level of importance that road safety had in the 1970s. 4.5 Intelligent Transport: Trains and other Vehicles with Brains Future transport systems will need to be used much more efficiently in a response to increasing energy costs and the need to use existing infrastructures more efficiently, together with the demand for more travel as populations become ever more mobile. This scenario deals with the situation as it may be after 2020, under the influence of these megatrends The Scenario Until around 2020 the railroad system was used very inefficiently. Although the railroads had a huge coverage over Europe, the concepts and technologies were not forward looking enough until pushed forward in 2015 by initiatives from the EC. Up to 2015 the basic concept of using railways had not changed since its invention. In comparison to roads, railways were used very differently and sparsely, for example regarding train length in relation to unused rail length in front and behind a train.
37 NGC Roadmap Study 31 With the help of massive research programmes CPS and HPC approaches were developed that allowed a denser and on-demand usage of railroads. Today the autonomous trains featuring powerful sensors and fulfilling high security standards are being able to do their own planning, are able to communicate with each other and with several control instances to realise a seamless cooperation with autonomous cars and other vehicles Application examples: Business trip of the future Stephanie needs to make a spontaneous business trip to a partner company which is 450 km away. Five minutes after deciding to meet her business partner in person she talks to her personal assistant avatar which she can see through her digital glasses. Her digital assistant starts to send requests to an international broker service, and starts to plan possible travel options. Since Stephanie needs to take a demonstrator weighting approx. 23 kg with her, the assistant neglects public transport options. Due to the urgency and time constraints, the assistant checks all other options for leaving the highdensity traffic zone of the city even though it is aware that Stephanie usually prefers to avoid shared car options. Having worked out some options for the main part of the journey, Stephanie s assistant avatar communicates with a local transportation broker, which in turn broadcasts the transportation request to pick-up vehicles in the area around the company. These autonomously driving cars are operated and maintained by private companies. The vehicles calculate the costs for a detour to pickup a person at Stephanie s company. Each estimate is done in real time, and has limited validity. The cars are programmed to gain the maximum profit without delaying the ride for the passengers that are already on board. It is crucial that they do an excellent job in calculating the risk and the estimated energy consumption of taking a detour versus bringing their passengers already on board to their target locations in time.
38 NGC Roadmap Study 32 Using the low latency wireless megacities network (LLWMC) twelve vehicles reply to the broker including their bid to take the passenger and the desired target zones they are heading for. The broker forwards the offers to Stephanie s assistant avatar, and they become the base for further calculations. Having a number of options for the initial part of the journey, the assistant starts planning the next sections of the trip. Three target zones are in the medium density traffic zones providing good starting points to far distance transportation vehicles. Since the final target - the company that Stephanie is going to visit - is in the countryside in a remote location, the availability of local vehicles is very low during business hours. Therefore the plan is to find a vehicle that is available for the rest of the day. Eight available vehicles are offered from three different providers via the vehicle auctions system CARbay. Four of them are close to the end of the auction, which allows a decision to be received in a short time frame. The digital assistant enters the auction based on its implemented and up-to-date company policy rules and is successful in grabbing a car for the rest of the day. The final part of planning the trip is to optimise the remaining 400km. To do so, the digital assistant directly connects to the control and navigation system of the car using the secure passphrase that is valid through the time of the rent. It deploys an optimisation task by handing over the target, the estimated payload, the preferences of Stephanie and the policies of the company. The car takes over the task of finding a route based on its charging level, cruising range, traffic announcements, charging stations including today s energy rates, the estimated payload and many other variables. The car starts to broadcast requests using the local zone broker service to find other cars with similar target zones for teaming up to use a shared train ride. Starting from a group of 8 cars there is a chance to order one of the autonomous car trains. After a few moments enough cars acknowledged which triggers the broadcast to the wide zone broker service (w-ettbs). Similar to the mentioned shared car services the trains are operated by private companies and able to plan their trips based on energy prices, maintenance cycles, available routes, traffic status, etc. and are replying with their offers. If there are similar replies the ETTBS starts with a mini auction where the cars are included that are acting in that case as representatives of the interests of their passengers, for example I want to be there in time despite the costs vs it should be economical, I am in no hurry. Due to high bandwidth communications and powerful on-board multi core brains of the autonomous vehicles as well as the HPC centres running the ETTBS the whole planning process took only 55 seconds. Stephanie takes her coat and enters the pick-up vehicle followed by the autonomous transportation trolley carrying the 23kg demonstrator she wants to show her business partner. She leans back and starts to review her prepared presentation on her foldable and lightweight screen foil. 4.6 Education and Research: Connected brains Research and development are undergoing significant changes and the need to innovate our education systems is almost universally acknowledged. An important megatrend driving development in research and development is the shift towards a post-scientific society in which the focus is on the development of novel services and products and thus on innovation. Individualization is a major trend in all modern market economies. With people looking for individualised solutions to their demands, the role of large markets in countries such as Brazil and China will continue to remain important.
39 NGC Roadmap Study 33 This is a direct consequence of a globalised economy, but also of the global power shift to new and emerging markets in Asia and other regions of the world. Changing demographics is also driving the need to improve the ways in which we create innovation and the ways to educate the young but also ensure life-long learning for everybody. It will be important to ensure proper education opportunities not only in increasingly urbanised areas, but also in the more sparsely populated countryside where internet connectivity may remain significantly lower. Future researchers and scientists will rely on a rich set of tools for scientific discovery, collaborative working, research and innovation management. This scenario presents a vision of the future in which researchers collaborate on a massive international scale, driven by the trends described above and enabled by next generation computing The Scenario Researchers in 2020 and beyond can quickly access a large variety of data repositories. Intuitive user interfaces support dynamic interactions with the data in an intuitive fashion to quickly find the answer to What if? questions or to discover new hypotheses. The scientist of the future can rely on a set of powerful computing resources that are dynamically reconfigured in response to changing load requirements. Tools are capable of finding a balance between prime services as a price premium, economic services with reduced data size or resolution and delayed services (overnight etc.) Data acquisition in laboratories happens to a large extent automatically with the help of robots and intelligent systems for data collection, validation, formatting and evaluation. Systems are able to detect anomalies and novelty in the data. Researchers easily run simulations before and after real-world experiments to speed up the time from the concept phase to research prototypes and implementation. New production tools such as 3D printing support the prototyping phase, but also the exchange of new ideas between researchers world-wide. The IT infrastructure supports the seamless connection of experts to support collaboration on complex large-scale research projects, but also to harvest microknowledge. The future expert s personal IT system facilitates the expert s contribution to a range of problems discussed in groups of scientists. Contributions from large numbers of experts are collated with IT support and lead to new theories, insights and technologies. Scientists can also rely on quick access to an interested broad public whose members engage in scientific projects as users, but also as laymen contributors - from data collection to analysis. Researchers are able to quickly test the feasibility of novel ideas and to interact with large communities of potential users or beneficiaries. The analysis of environmental impacts is supported and computerised tools facilitate quick estimation of production costs. Teams for special projects are dynamically created - even for short-term tasks. They are composed from an organisation s world-wide staff but also include freelance R&D consultants and specifically hired experts from all around the world. Interaction between team members is facilitated by highquality video conferencing, virtual labs combining infrastructure from several labs into a projecttailored lab and collaborative research software that supports co-authoring of documents and programmes.
40 NGC Roadmap Study 34 Specific problems such as design challenges involving end-users are outsourced to open RTDI platforms of various kinds. Such platforms exist for special problems in narrow domains but also for more innovation-related tasks. In the area of education, technology and in particular information technology has often been eyed with scepticism. While there has been a wave of using multi-media teaching material already (from the 1970 s), many teachers remain sceptical about the wide application of ICT in the classroom and mobile devices are often banned in schools. This situation is changing, although only slowly. The changes are driven by social as well as technological forces. One such driver is the increased use of social networking and internet resources among and between students, but also networking with peers, instructors, freelancers and other people interested in supporting training and education. From a technology perspective, the bring your own device (BYOD) trend is clearly visible also in the classroom. Mobile devices facilitate access to massive online courses, to interactive training material, online discussion sites for students etc. But of utmost importance are mixed socio-technological trends such as serious gaming, simulation and virtual reality modelling that facilitate an explorative, self-driven way of learning. Students are empowered to study potential consequences of their actions in believable simulations, they experience fun in competing with their mates in online educational gaming and get instant feedback on acquired knowledge Application example: WorldLab - international collaborative research Pauline has been thinking about novel ways to optimize the control of large infrastructures (for example a stadium) in cases of emergencies recently. But she does not quite trust her simulations of large crowds of people as these are not based on feedback loops to the crowd, for example through emergency messages to people s mobile phones. She conjures that the dynamics can essentially be captured with an improved mathematical model that is used in fluid dynamics and she posts this thought in an online forum. Two hours later a couple of experts from all over the world have commented on her problem. A mathematician from Belarus has come up with a more general conjecture that includes Pauline s description as a special case. In parallel she has created an on-line description of a novel project that she is now preparing as a result of the insights gained. She first outlines the idea on an RTDI funding platform, hoping to create sufficient interest in the project from either the scientific community, a broader public or entrepreneurs scanning for new business ideas. As she is confident to be able to find either funding or volunteers for her project, she also describes the required staffing. She is looking for an expert who analyses large data sets. She also looks for volunteers to collect more specific data in this application.
41 NGC Roadmap Study 35 Before finishing her work day, Pauline contributes a piece of code from her crowd simulation to an online mobile gaming platform. She was contacted earlier by a group of students from her old high school where she occasionally helps with online tutoring in mathematics for students participating in mathematics competition. The students have created a mixed-reality adventure game that is played using mobile devices in real city environments. As a part of this game, they would like to use Pauline s algorithms for simulating the behaviour of large crowds of protesters in narrow streets and underground tunnels. It takes Pauline half an hour to create a sufficiently stable version of her code written for massively parallel high-performance computers that can run on smaller scale computing devices. It does not have all the features of her code but should suffice for the online game. She finishes off recording a quick commentary on the code that she posts on the platform s developer section. She also sends the code to her 12-year old daughter who has had trouble catching up on the French revolution in her history class. Perhaps she can use the code for her social simulation project on the storming of the Bastille. 4.7 Future Healthcare: Health and happiness in the digital age Healthcare systems face many challenges arising from the trend of an aging population and the need to keep down costs to the state in what is, at least in Europe, something generally provided by the state. Next generation computing can make a significant contribution to a more healthy society as new technology enables us to have better diagnostic tools, drugs, treatments and preventative care. The way forward is not without difficulties however; healthcare provision is a particularly sensitive area when it comes to data management, with privacy and security concerns being very much at the fore of the public s mind The Scenario In this scenario we examine a vision of the future in which patients will experience personalised healthcare and will engage more with their wellbeing and health, they are active drivers of their own healthcare and take responsibility for their own health. Their lifestyles can be monitored from
42 NGC Roadmap Study 36 physiological data streams captured from body sensors and recorded directly into their electronic health record and the national health database. Citizens will be aware of healthy living via large scale e-health campaigns and are provided with e-health support kits to improve access to information, and aid physical and mental wellbeing. Patients can liaise with fellow patients in social hangouts to share experiences about particular diseases, these hangouts allow them to find emotional support and reduces isolation. The healthcare system is based on a consumer/retail based model - they are users of healthcare. Future doctors provide healthcare virtually through bio-connectivity and extend healthcare to community care. This will be achieved through real-time analytics and location-intelligence tools. Thus, clinical decisions will be made based upon better, accurate data collection. The focus of healthcare will be upon preventative treatments and treating patients for conditions which are likely to develop and restructuring the system around that situation. Therefore, the community focus is more aligned to social science rather than life science, for example tools will encourage healthier habits in the population, sporting facilities will be built, nutritional programmes will be run and healthy food will be subsidised. Of course, as health and wellbeing are delivered virtually, protecting patient data and securing IT infrastructures becomes increasingly challenging for healthcare of the future. The bio-connectivity approach brings a numbers of challenges including securing medical devices and data, and achieving regulatory compliance. Above all, the future system must be trusted by the patients to have any chance of being taken up and thereby delivering benefits Application example: The Networked Patient Pablo is diagnosed with heart disease. His case is treated by the healthcare system of the future as a managed process which results in the best treatment and recovery plan. The diagnosis phase is carried out by a visit to his local GP, which in the future is a hub for interaction with the appropriate medical specialists. Some tests can be carried out simply in the home, but some must of course be carried out by trained people. With the help of the GP and clinical staff at the local hub, the heart disease specialist makes an assessment of Pablo s condition via remote link (telepresence). The specialist is located at a hospital in Madrid, but today he has already seen patients in many different towns and cities in Spain, and also in other EU countries under an agreement to share resources. Pablo is scheduled for a bypass operation and a surgeon is selected. The surgeon is given temporary permission to access data for the case so that she can prepare. The surgeon was trained at one of Europe s top hospitals, which has a state-of-the-art virtual operating theatre used for teaching. Before operating on a single real person, she had performed over a hundred similar operations as part of her qualification, often with complications introduced by the training system to test her skill.
43 NGC Roadmap Study 37 A week before the operation, the surgeon, consultant, GP and patient all meet in a videoconference to discuss the operation and aftercare plan. After his operation, Pablo returns home where care is provided via a networked interactive platform in his home which interacts with the hospital system. He has a smart device, like a wrist watch, with personal sensors which are connected to the interactive platform and the hospital system to enable mobile vital sign tracking and cooperation with the interactive platform. The home interactive platform carries out a number of functions: It manages a smart medicine cabinet, telling the patient when to take drugs. If appropriate, it can be configured to do this securely, releasing codes that allow access to the correct drugs only at the appropriate times. It interacts with smart dressings which monitor the progress of healing. It provides instant communication with the GP surgery in the event of complications arising, or to allow Pablo to get simple advice from the surgery. Initially Pablo is apprehensive about the technology and is concerned who can see his medical data and how the data is secured. Following guidance and introductory tutorials from a local community wellbeing team, Pablo grows in confidence using the devices. As well as the medical aftercare, the patient is motivated to take his health and wellbeing more seriously and takes a number of steps to improve his lifestyle. Later, Pablo decides to get involved with the national wellbeing campaigns and refers to the e-health toolkit provided by the local council. He spends time watching the health tutorials from the toolkit and begins to understand the importance of wellbeing in the context of post-surgery recovery but also long term health and wellbeing. Based on this, Pablo decides to engage with the dietician via the interactive platform to discuss a new diet/range of menus that would be suitable for a healthy
44 NGC Roadmap Study 38 lifestyle post recovery. Alongside this activity, he engages in a number of virtual exercise classes specifically customised to his health needs and post-surgery recuperation. In time, as recovery progresses the patient decides to spend some of the personal Wellbeing Fund from the government on weekly sessions with a personal health coach to build on the online exercise sessions and healthy eating to sustain the new lifestyle approach adopted since surgery. He feels re-energised and motivated both after the personal training sessions and after the cognitive sessions with the health coach, so much so that the patient decides to spend more of their Wellbeing Fund to pay for entry to the local running event. Afterwards Pablo reflects upon the shift in the healthcare system and appreciates the ease and level of interaction technology affords in the healthcare service, compared to the long waiting lists experienced in years gone by. He also appreciates the impact the healthcare experience has had on attitudes generally and on the new approach to lifestyle. 4.8 Living with scarce resources: Renewtopia Scarcity of resources, including energy, is a global megatrend that will have a profound effect on the socioeconomic fabric of the world in the coming years and decades. The future looks even more challenging as we rely so heavily on industrial processes that use materials that have finite reserves and are energy hungry. We must look to a future in which re-use, renewal and recycling are central The scenario It is Energy is expensive. The increasing competition for energy and resources from emerging economies have contributed to higher costs. Consumers are cost-conscious and have changed their behaviour regarding how much energy they consume and how they consume it. Factors such as rising fossil fuel prices, grid instability, aggressive carbon pricing and environmental pressure have all played a part in this. Over the last decade, citizens and organisations have been actively looking at cost-efficient ways to consume less energy, or at least consume energy in a more efficient way. Governments have become more energy and environmentally conscious. There is an increased competition for resources but also cooperation on key energy issues when it is mutually beneficial. Issues include greenhouse gas emission reduction, energy efficiency and renewable generation. These issues are subjects of intense negotiations as well as international agreements and programs. We live in a renewable energy-based, digital world. We live in intelligently managed sustainable homes. We use next-generation home energy management systems to measure, monitor and manage our energy consumption based on pre-configured policies. Smart meters and smart grids make it easier for us to monitor and manage energy use. Energy generation has also become localised via small-scale renewable generation such as solar panels and wind-turbines on houses. This energy is shared via micro-grids - some of which hook back into central energy grids. We use zero-emission (human-powered or electric) vehicles to commute (although these vehicles still have an embedded carbon cost). The vehicles are equipped with batteries. Drivers can use solar panels to charge up their electric vehicles during the day, and can use the electricity from their cars to power all kinds of devices in their homes at night. We can store electricity in different ways and move it where we need it. There is an open, city-based online platform that provides us with information on electric vehicles, available charging methods and spots, carbon dioxide emissions, and other related data, products and services. We use many different portable electronic devices, such as wireless sensors, mobile phones, media players, in our daily lives for different purposes such as healthcare, sports, entertainment, education, etc. Limited battery life has been a significant inconvenience for most of these devices, therefore in-
45 NGC Roadmap Study 39 motion energy generation from renewable sources and human-powered wearable computing have become popular. We are able to power our mobile electronic devices through motion-based energy harvesting. With the increasing use of mobile and multimedia applications, machine-to-machine computing, Internet of Things, smart grids and smart meters, among others, the demand for ICT services has grown exponentially. Cloud computing and hosted data centre services have helped meet this growing demand, but have also created demand for large, multi-megawatt data centres Application example: Highly efficient data centres Data centres have historically been large consumers of electricity. But data centre suppliers and operators now use smart technologies that follow broader industry trends such as the need to reduce energy consumption; improving data centre efficiency, management and planning; improving business agility and speed of reaction and deployment; increasing IT workload agility and efficiency; improving data centre resilience and enabling higher availability. Data centre operators now include the use of outside air, sea- or lake water to cool their facilities instead of energy and cost-intensive mechanical cooling. Alongside the super data-hubs, data centres have become smaller and more distributed than before to match distributed sources of renewable energy. Many data centre operators now use strategies such as follow the moon for workload management. They shift workloads between data centres - either their own or those operated by third-party cloud providers - depending where the cheapest place to execute the workload is based on the availability of affordable energy. Advanced data centre infrastructure management (DCIM) systems have become autonomic (selfregulating) operating systems for the data centre. DCIM tools have much greater embedded intelligence than before, can integrate with building management and IT systems, and can provide sophisticated management planning and reporting tools. This kind of dynamic management has proved to be crucial to lowering the capital and operating costs of data centres. A suite of DCIM management tools may be used to manage and monitor all equipment and conditions. Closely linked to the advanced management of buildings and IT systems, power-proportional computing is used for reducing the idle-power of servers.
46 NGC Roadmap Study 40 Advanced micro-grid technology helps optimise energy use by reducing the IT energy load when it is safe to do so, engaging in "transactive" energy management, and by buying and selling power in the most economical and eco-friendly way Application example: Smart energy sharing Intensive energy consumers, as well as our sustainable homes generate their own electricity through renewable means (on-site clean power generation) and sell any excess to a utility. Microgrids enable locally-generated energy to be shared between large consumers and/or sustainable homes, as well as other users. This not only helps bring down the cost of power and stabilise prices, but it also contributes to the fight against climate change and enhances the security of the energy supply. There are also a number of electricity suppliers that use only renewable sources and have a carbon footprint of zero. This means that both organisations and citizens have the option of getting 100% of their electricity from renewable sources. 4.9 Future Manufacturing: At a factory near you The increasing cost of energy and the need to reduce the use of carbon based energy will change the way in which manufacturing is carried out. Transportation of raw materials and finished goods will be reduced to minimise transportation costs with raw materials being processed close to source to reduce size and weight thus minimising transportation costs or alternative materials being utilised that are available close to use. Total cost of ownership from an energy perspective will become more prevalent with new business models arising that place the burden of energy use on the manufacturer. Built in obsolescence will become redundant and the focus will be on increasing the useable life of products through modular designs and software driven cyber-physical control systems. This will challenge models based on economies of scale and drive the introduction of small scale flexible manufacturing that will be smart and responsive to changing products at a unit level.
47 NGC Roadmap Study 41 Around 13 elements that are in everyday use are under threat within the next years. This will drive the use of manufacturing techniques that reduce wastage such as additive layer manufacturing or 3D printing. Alternative materials will be sought and new innovative composites based on combinations of biomaterials will become more commonplace. The supply chain will move towards a closed loop where end of lifecycle products will be the source of raw materials for new products, and this will be supported by real time data analytics and new innovative modelling and simulation techniques that support a closed loop life cycle. Manufacturing will have to respond to meet the needs of an increasingly affluent and demanding consumer base that will be more geographically spread. Local values and preferences will drive the need for different versions of products that will ultimately mean more geographically dispersed and smaller manufacturing units that are closer to the consumer and that can finish products to meet local tastes. Future society will become more demanding, connected and knowledgeable and this will mean that highly skilled workforces will collaborate virtually in the design and manufacturing process. Socially responsibility will be needed to integrate networks of people with technology and manufacturing networks. A more globally connected world will increase awareness of goods and services on offer elsewhere and this will increase the demand for global brands but with mass customisation as consumers aim to personalise products to their tastes. One aspect that will become important is how to effectively integrate people into the manufacturing process. This will become especially challenging with a potential juxtaposition with highly automated, self-learning and connected machinery and components that will be operating and responding to real time stimuli. Virtual training will be a critical element to ensure effective integration of people into increasingly sophisticated and intelligent manufacturing processes The scenario Tomorrow s factory will comprise a network of small flexible, self-adaptive geographically dispersed stations that subcontract services to suppliers. The OEM has become an OES (Original Equipment Subcontractor). Machines will be self-programming, predictive and self-healing, communicative and smart. Renewable energy will power energy efficient processes that minimise material use and wastage and they will make products that are close to customer to minimise transportation and that will build products that are designed to last. The role of people will change and will become highly collaborative and virtual with global networks of people involved in new manufacturing models Application example: Consumer products mass produced to order It's the year 2030 and John is looking to purchase a new washing machine and opts for a 2.5kg capacity because analytics on his previous machine advised him this was average wash load. He was also very specific about the size of the machine due to the non-standard dimension of his kitchen and the external appearance had to match the unique printed finish of his kitchen units. Functional options were easy to select. He was busy in his job as an automotive designer and didn't want to be distracted as he collaborated with his design colleagues from his home office, so he needed a unit that was fully automatic, sensed the garments that could be grouped together and ran a cycle automatically to completion. All he wanted to do was pick them out and place them in his wardrobe.
48 NGC Roadmap Study 42 After seeing an immediate 3D visualisation of the finished products, John ultimately settled for a machine that offered each wash at 0.30 per batch to be reviewed at the end of a 10-year contract, and that could be delivered and fitted within 6 hours. A shorter contract would have given the option to change the unit sooner but would have resulted in a Materials Levy charge. He also opted to reduce the Material Levy imposed on the new machine by accepting a 100 payment so that the supplier could utilise refurbished components where possible. He was using the new Price for Purpose model where the supplier was responsible for meeting the energy costs through good design and smart metering, ensuring that the machine was always available for use through effective online and real time monitoring and servicing, and recycling water using microbial and ultrasound technologies to reduce charges. This new business model arose is replacing the traditional economies of scale model that was based on build-more, sell-more and built in product obsolescence. And if the supplier is to be commercially successful they had to ensure that energy use was minimised and resource utilisation maximised. He attached the graphics for the external design along with his specification and submitted his order to the Milan based supplier. To minimise transportation of the larger finished product, manufacturing and assembly will take place in a small specialised unit close to John s home. The supplier has strategic agreements and agreed subcontract prices with a network of such units. The only component where manufacturing capability is retained by the supplier, is in the ultrasound enhanced cleansing system that minimises both water and energy needed to operation. 6 hours was originally quoted to John and this was based on an analysis of the resource and manufacturing availability throughout the manufacturing network. A critical step in realising these networks of flexible discrete manufacturing units that are selfprogramming, scheduling and controlling was the relatively recent development of an industry wide set of communication standards and protocols for machine-to-machine and machine to component / product communications. This allowed component parts to be marked with electronic tags / information that identify themselves to the machines which in turn self-programme to deliver a series of production processes required to produce the part or move to on to its next stage.
49 NGC Roadmap Study 43 Sophisticated robotic-based materials handling equipment ensure safe transportation of components to the next stage in the process. Coincidentally, Helga, one of Johns neighbours had ordered a new kettle around the same time. As the machine was finishing off the graphics on Johns washing machine, Helga s kettle was being placed at the machine by robotics so that her heat retaining coating could be applied. Both items were scheduled for completion at the same time to realise energy efficiencies in the transportation required for delivery. The manufacturing process did not stop after installation. Big data analytical tools, fuelled by information provided by smart meters and self-monitoring health and utilisation systems, detected that a component part of Johns washing machine was due to fail in around 2 weeks. It instigated a repair routine to manufacture the component part locally through a combination of printed electronics and 3D printing and have it installed before John knew of the impending failure and ultimately saved the supplier penalty costs as a result of a contracted SLA. Similarly and invisible to John, the machine manufacturing one of the component parts for Johns machine was close to failure prior to loading his part on for manufacture. With no alternative machine available for 3 hours it would have meant a delay in the delivery of his product. However, the machine recognised signs that an internal control unit was about to fail and had made itself a replacement part that was fitted by robotics before continuing on with the production of John s component. Downtime was reduced to 32 minutes but because this was predicted it was already accounted for in John s delivery schedule. The clean, automated and orchestrated activity of the manufacturing unit has an almost artistic quality. As a result an innovative café owner had agreed to provide lease free space in the middle of his café in which the facility was enclosed in a glass dome. A small sub unit dedicated to food production was developed so that users could order food to their own requirements and watch them being made. This provided an interesting feature for his business that proved successful Technology needs The scenarios described in the preceding sections were intended to suggest possible visions of the future based on current market and technology trends. They are not intended to be firm predictions or to indicate a desired state that we should be aiming for. In this section, we list the major technology areas in which progress needs to be made if the scenarios are to be realised. These broad technology areas are expanded on in section 4 which follows The Digital Citizen: It s all about me This scenario will generate technology needs in the areas of smart devices, software agents, and ubiquitous high capacity networking. The smart devices envisaged will need advanced interfaces featuring haptic feedback and be able to interpret gesture and mood. Some of these will be wearable, and will need to be low power or self-powering. Software agents will need to act like a human helper and have cognitive and AI capabilities. These agents must be able to interact autonomously and securely with services on the user s behalf and have the ability to learn and adapt to the profile of their owner.
50 NGC Roadmap Study 44 High-capacity networking involving billions of connections, with seamless transition between domains (telecom and Wi-Fi cells) features heavily in this scenario. Secure communications will be essential. Service providers will need to provide interoperability and high availability of service to meet the customer expectations. For a thriving set of applications to exist, it must be easy to create and deploy applications on cloud computing platforms. User experience must be of a high quality at almost every location. Services must be customisable by the user The Digital Nation: It s about us Security, privacy and trustworthiness underpin this scenario. Data collection must be secure, with intrusion detection built in if the public is to have trust in state use of NGC. Systems to detect malicious activity (fraud and other crime) will be required to ensure national security and encourage trust. This will require intelligent software and collection and analysis of large data sets. Governments will have an interest in having good NGC infrastructure to encourage economic growth, and will encourage interoperability of services Intelligent Transport: Trains with brains This scenario will require technologies to plan and optimise travel. This will require tools capable of optimising large-scale interacting systems. Massive networks of sensors will be required to securely collect data which must be analysed in real time. Tools to predict demand and status of physical transport networks will be required. Planning tools must be able to respond rapidly to changes in real time and generated modified schedules. Secure billing and payment systems will be needed to handle massive transaction loads. Robustness and the ability to interoperate with other infrastructures and services will be essential. Intelligent software agents that act on behalf of the user will be needed, and will have similar requirements to those outlined in the scenario It s all about me Education and Research: Connected brains This scenario demands technology that supports collaboration, cooperation and sharing. Technologies that will be essential include those that support controlled access to massive unstructured data archives and tools to query and process the data. This must include detecting fake or plagiarised results. Infrastructure to support virtual laboratories will be required. This will create the demand for technology to support remote use of instruments and access to specialised equipment such as highend HPC systems. Libraries of modelling and simulation software must be available and it must be easy for researchers to find and use the tools that they need. Technology to support collaboration between researchers will be required such as telepresence and augmented reality.
51 NGC Roadmap Study Future Healthcare: Health and happiness in the digital age This scenario demonstrates how next generation computing can improve healthcare for the individual, and at the same time reduce cost and improve the effectiveness of healthcare provision. Healthcare generates massive quantities data of diverse types and hence technology to manage and analyse data of this nature will be essential. Privacy and security are major concerns and future systems must have these features. Medical training and diagnosis will create a demand for augmented reality, telepresence and remote sensing technologies. Patient interaction with healthcare of the future will require easy to use intuitive interfaces. Implants, dressings and medications will need to allow a patient s well-being to be monitored. This will require smart materials and miniature electronic sensors. Drug development will require access to HPC systems and simulation software, together with data storage analysis and visualisation technologies Living with scarce resources: Renewtopia This scenario deals with one of the fundamental trends that seems sure to have a massive influence over every human activity the need to make efficient use of resources. For NGC this means that technologies that can do more with less, especially with regard to energy consumption, will be paramount. In the short term this means dealing with the current hardware trend of multicore and heterogeneous computing, and the resulting need for software that can exploit more parallelism. In the longer term, technologies that allow us to create low-power components will be essential. Such technologies are likely to include new materials and enhanced production techniques. At the next level will be the need for new computing architectures which take account of performance per unit of energy together with the needs of data-intensive computing. Corresponding new programming models and languages may be needed to support this. Technologies that will allow energy generation from renewable sources, energy storage and sharing, will be essential as computing becomes ever more distributed. In addition to being a consumer of energy, and in that sense part of the problem, NGC also becomes part of the solution as it can be applied to enabling smart energy systems and optimisation of nonrenewable energy sources. Smart power networks will require optimisation techniques and real-time response to networks of millions of sensors Future Manufacturing: At a factory near you This scenario is about both sides of the cyber-physical boundary. It covers how the cyber world of digital design and specification is translated into the physical world of manufactured goods by means of smart and customisable production techniques, and how information from these physical processes is fed back to the cyber world to capture information on the lifecycle of the finished product and the processes that created it. Underpinning this scenario is the increasingly complex challenge of effectively integrating people into new manufacturing paradigms, and how global people networks and collaborations can be supported.
52 NGC Roadmap Study 46 The technologies that will be required in this scenario are in the areas of materials and production, intelligent systems, sensors and instrumentation. Technologies that convert from digital to physical domains, such as 3D printing and other automated production technologies will be required, together with real-time scheduling of equipment and raw material supplies to support manufacturing to order. Optimisation and condition monitoring of factories will require a broad array of sensors and instrumentation. Product lifecycle monitoring will require smart miniature electronics so that a product s history can be recorded, together with technologies to enable manufacture for re-use and recycling. All of this will drive a proliferation of data generation that will explode in its complexity when successfully utilised for closed loop life cycle modelling, simulation and real time management. Technologies that can capture, transfer, store and analyse, in real time, this increasingly complex and vast array of data will be a major enabler for new manufacturing models. The internet and digital communications will become the arteries of this new global network of intelligent self-aware and self-learning systems, then cyber security will become an increasingly critical aspect that will have to be effectively addressed to instil trust and confidence and drive progress.
53 NGC Roadmap Study 47 5 The RTDI challenges The scenarios depicted in the previous section generate many challenges in the areas of research, technology, development and innovation (RTDI). These can be grouped into a number of categories, which are discussed below. These categories are used again in section 7 of this report which deals with specific roadmaps for each of our scenarios, and which deal with more detailed technological developments that will be needed for each scenario. Clearly many of the categories are overlapping and interdependent, and identifying the cross-cutting technologies is an important part of assessing impact and assigning priorities for areas that a research and development programme should focus on. Cyber-physical systems The future will see very large and interconnected systems of CPS, such as traffic and crowd management sensor networks. Technologies will be needed to support indoor localisation and navigation. Positioning systems that overcome the lack of accuracy of today s GPS will be needed. Galileo will be more accurate, but there will also be the need for robust indoor positioning and positioning in blocked sky scenarios. Future systems must have low or zero maintenance needs due to their scale and so as not to constrain deployment scenarios. Smart systems Smart systems will be everywhere. Traffic and transport systems, the urban environment, delivery of utilities, smart grids and meters, healthcare and leisure will be supported by interoperating smart systems. This will require intelligent agents, cognitive computing (social network management), novel digital social platforms and the interoperation of complex systems. New approaches to problems such as the travelling salesman will be required Organic and large-area electronics Electronics embedded into everything is a likely feature of future scenarios. Printed electronics is a promising technology for mass produced versatile and customisable components such as displays and sensors. Cost and robustness will need to be improved. Devices must be easily upgradable and recycled at the end of life. 3D displays, flexible / foldable / rollable / transformational screens will be the first step toward an innovation that may completely change the smartphone user experience - why put something in your pocket when you can wrap it around your wrist? Smart materials and products Techniques for producing materials with embedded processing, sensing and communication capability will be required. 3D printing and additive layer manufacturing. Smart textiles and implantable devices, and in-body or human embedded technologies for medical applications will be in demand. Programmability of smart materials may also be a desired capability in the future.
54 NGC Roadmap Study 48 Customised and low-power computing In the short term, mastering multicore and heterogeneity will be essential as these are wellestablished hardware trends. Increased miniaturisation will allow components to be deployed in more situations. Energy efficient micro-servers will be needed for easily deployable computing clusters, and potentially to build energy efficient data-centres. In the longer term the challenge is to find new processor technologies to overcome the limitations of today s technology. Silicon photonics and graphene are likely to be significant technologies. In the very long term, techniques such as quantum computing and bio-computing may provide solutions. Energy technologies Renewable energy technologies will be required to allow generation, storage, distribution and sharing of energy. New battery technologies would allow greater time between charging for consumer devices. Such technology must also focus on recyclability, easy disposability and re-use. Energy harvesting technologies that allow devices to run without any external power source will be required. Cognitive systems Producing systems with cognitive capabilities is a major technological challenge. Applications such as crime prevention and security require the ability to analyse crowd behaviour and carry out voice, image and face recognition, detect intrusion into digital systems and other complex tasks. Success in this area will require not only significant computing processing power and data storage, but development of algorithms and AI techniques. Crowd computing is another interesting area that taps into the world s cognitive surplus. Smart optical and wireless network technologies Consumers and providers will demand reliable, high quality networks. Key challenges in this area are managing massive numbers of connections, seamlessly transitioning between modes of communication, establishing reliable communication over unreliable networks. Networks must be secure, with the ability to detect and remove threats. Advanced cloud infrastructures Cloud computing offers the promise of ubiquitous access to digital services to consumers, and a lowcost way to develop services to providers. Challenges in this area include dynamic configuration, automated provisioning and orchestration of cloud resources; secure , storage and other services; interoperable system interfaces, federated cloud networking, and the ability to comply with legislation (for example guaranteeing geographic location of data storage or programme execution).
55 NGC Roadmap Study 49 Tools and methods for software development The emergence of multicore and heterogeneous computing is challenging conventional programming models and techniques. New programming paradigms for these new architectures, and for future (possible more disruptive) processor technologies and architectures, are needed. These new paradigms must take account of energy efficient computing, greater levels of parallelism and dealing with data on a massive scale. Application scalability must be addressed, together with legacy-code adaptation. Software and hardware co-design should be considered as an approach. Toolkit functionality available across devices is highly desirable and will boost developer productivity. Advanced communications network infrastructure Successors to 4G technology will be needed for consumers to reap the widest benefits from other NGC developments. Improvements in bandwidth, latency, security, network coverage and reliability are all needed. Big data analytics Big data seems certain to be a dominant force, with many opportunities perceived. To make the most of these opportunities, technologies must be developed to provide systems, tools and methods to manage and analyse for massive unstructured data sources. Computer systems geared towards massive data handling will be needed, together with advanced analytic software capable of supporting data mining on a massive scale. Access control and data curation will be essential features of future systems. Multimodal computer interaction In all likelihood, computing systems will become so much part of the fabric of everyday life that we will be almost constantly interacting with the digital environment. In such a situation, the interfaces and modes of interaction must allow maximum usability and enhance the user experience. Technologies such as advanced displays, augmented reality glasses and wearable computing will be required. Recognition of speech, gesture and facial expressions will be desirable, together with eyetracking and awareness of surroundings. Natural language as well as touch interfaces are needed. Software assistants that act on behalf of the user will enhance usability. Privacy and security Our increasing dependence on digital systems increases our exposure to malicious activity. The impact this could have on business and society justifies the development of advanced methods to protect systems and detect suspicious activity. Technologies for attack-proof systems, and means to certify them will be needed. Together with this we require a framework that allows the rights of individuals to privacy, for example to be digitally forgotten.
56 NGC Roadmap Study 50 Human learning and teaching NGC has the potential to revolutionise many aspects of teaching and learning, starting at the very earliest age. There is the prospect of education being personalised to account for individual ability and interest, and to be delivered virtually. This could have great societal impact. There will be a demand for technologies to support the virtual classroom (eg telepresence). Students (and teachers) of the future will have access to huge data and information assets. Technology will create a disruptive effect on teaching and learning which have been based on the physical classroom or laboratory. The sociological implications of the switch to virtual environments need to be researched in tandem with NCG technology development. Gaming The games industry is already a huge market for computing, and a driving force for new technology. This seems to be trend that is unlikely to change. There will be demand for incremental progress as games platform producers seek to keep their products at the leading edge, but also for breakthrough technologies that will enable a new experience for players. The games industry will therefore for be a driver for both short term and long term technology development.
57 NGC Roadmap Study 51 6 State-of-Play 6.1 Our computing environment today Globalisation and technology innovation are changing the way we work and live. A new generation of workers and consumers -the digital natives -demand all kinds of integrated, digital products and services. Also, a new kind of enterprise is emerging - that is intelligent and interactive, socially driven, ubiquitous, and service oriented. Among the critical trends forcing this transformation are the consumerisation of information and communication technologies, the Internet of Everything, cloudbased services, and big data. There is a significant transformation going on in all stages of value creation and delivery. Figure 5: The Digital Economy (Source: The 451 Group s Digital Infrastructure Playbook) These critical trends have a major effect on computing itself. The chart below provides a big-picture view of how we see the evolution of computing from different aspects such as hardware, software, service, connectivity, among others, and in light of the governing megatrends and business models.
58 NGC Roadmap Study 52 Figure 6: The Evolution of Computing We are entering a new era of personalised smart computing where tablets, smartphones and other connecting devices take centre stage. Tablet and smartphone markets are growing at double or triple digits, while the PC market grows at single digits, and is starting to flatten out. Tablets are starting to curtail the demand for PCs as users realise that tablets can do most of the things a PC can do. In any case, the future of personalised computing is not limited to smartphones, tablets and PCs. We will use all kinds of screens and displays to access our digital stuff in our personal clouds. The personal cloud can be seen as a virtual mainframe where all our data and intelligence reside and are processed, and are being synchronised with our various terminals or devices. However, this model depends on the availability of a ubiquitous, always-on connection to online resources in the cloud. From Hardware to Software With IT budgets under pressure, the emphasis in the hardware sector continues to be a more with less scenario. The general industry trend is flowing away from specialised hardware toward cheaper, smaller and low-power commodity hardware and toward pure-software virtual appliances that can run on any standard hardware (server). Server, networking and storage equipment are likely to be powered by simpler core processors similar to those currently used in mobile devices but optimised for specific tasks. More of these can be fitted into the same sized package, saving space and power consumption. With hardware becoming a commodity, software is where most of the commercial and economic value will be. In particular, systems using standard components in the domains of servers, storage and networking will be tied together through software management and system software at the hypervisor layer or directly plugged into it. The biggest investments are focused on the management layers. There is a need for new core competencies in the area of parallel programming and design of chips, software and applications, as well as digital based manufacturing and product management; considering mega-trends such as connecting devices, social media, cloud, big data, energy efficiency. The focus is also shifting to the importance of skills to create tools that allow us to analyse the
59 NGC Roadmap Study 53 information enabling people to make better decisions. Big Data will be one of the dominating trends when it comes to data management and analytics. Converged/Integrated Infrastructure With hardware becoming a commodity, some traditional hardware and system vendors (for example IBM) have turned to and are now focusing on selling software and services, while getting rid of their hardware businesses. Others (for example Cisco) are trying to hold off commoditisation by selling converged/integrated systems with more value-add, and at the same time are also becoming service providers. This is how they maintain margins. With the commoditisation of components, a large part of the value is in the assembly, aggregation and packaging, and the tight integration of hardware and software in order to make systems work more efficiently and automatically. From the user s point of view, the complexity and interdependency of storage, network, server and software in virtualised environments is driving interest in integrated infrastructure solutions. The primary benefits are: simplified and quicker installation; greater density and resource utilisation; systems management of all resources through a single console; and better performance through a closer match between the underlying hardware and the infrastructure and application software running on top. The convergence can be tightly or loosely coupled tighter is better for simplification, predictable performance and reliability, while looser provides more flexibility, a greater choice of components and less vendor lock-in. Efficient Utilisation of IT and Energy The use of IT today is very inefficient, in terms of both cost and energy. Making the use of resources more efficient by building efficient and smart systems will be key to sustainability. IT remains both a major energy user and an important potential force for reducing energy consumption. One clear trend is that companies with a presence in multiple markets such as data centres, intelligent buildings and automation will increasingly seek to cross-sell and share technologies across multiple markets. Managing energy consumption in a data centre and in, for example, an airport requires many common technologies. There is a type of convergence underway in the energy management area too. A similar set of components is increasingly serving three core markets buildings, data centres and across the enterprise. We expect competition in this broader energy management software category to intensify as more vendors diversify their energy management products and target markets.
60 NGC Roadmap Study 54 New Commerce Models and Cloud-based Services There are two primary types of businesses that markets are self-organised around 1 : The Complex Systems (systems and projects) business specialises in highly customized solutions to complex challenges (for example IBM, Cisco, etc.) The Volume Operations (products and transactions) business sells packaged products or service transactions addressing everyday needs of large masses (for example Apple, Google, Facebook, etc.) Not all companies operate at these two extremes, but can be classified based on which of these two groups they ultimately belong or commit to. Over time, the volume operation offers encroach on the complex systems territory, forcing the complex systems offers to evolve to a new level of complexity and open up a new market frontier. A good example of this is the emergence of the converged or integrated infrastructure offerings. Build-to-order configurations assembled in the factory and shipped directly to end-users aren t good news for third-party integrators and resellers. However, vendors realise that they can t sell everything directly and are adjusting their strategies to make room for the channel to add value. Channels are important innovation drivers. They produce (for example third-party developers) and/or sell (for example resellers, system integrators) the products that are used by customers. Strategic/influential alliances and co-opetitive strategies will continue to be formed driven by commercial interests. New commerce models will have to accommodate mega-trends such as connecting devices, social media, open source strategies as well as cloud and hybrid set-ups. Enterprises internal IT is going through a major transformation. We see cloud computing as a proxy for this transformation, however, instead of the cloud being an end unto itself, it is rapidly becoming an element of a manifold approach to service delivery within the enterprise s broader digital infrastructure. Effective CIOs are maximising value and minimising risk by carefully choosing the right proportions of various assets, be it dedicated, shared, managed, unmanaged, internal, external, cloud and non-cloud service delivery venues. The transition from traditional IT architectures to a cloud-based future is a slow and stately dance that will be executed over multiple years as shown in Figure 7. The digital infrastructure of the future will provide CIOs with an assortment of service delivery venues where users are able to schedule and automate the delivery of workloads to the most suitable venues, be it internal or external, depending on workload characteristics, SLAs and policy requirements, such as latency, risk or locality. A variety of vendors and service providers will populate an enterprise s digital infrastructure. Orchestration, cloud platform and management suppliers will all provide the connective tissue that binds this ecosystem together. 1 Geoffrey Moore: Escape Velocity
61 NGC Roadmap Study 55 Figure 7: The State of Digital Infrastructure and Cloud Adoption (Source: 451 Research Cloud Computing Wave 5) The industry is also moving towards open innovation and co-opetition collaboration is key to innovation and long-term sustainability. Open communities and platforms are becoming part of the value chains. Examples following this trend are OpenStack and the Open Compute Project, among others. Universities and Research Centres if closely linked to the commercial world- foster investment in innovative technologies. Governments can also lead by example and adopt new capabilities and technologies in order to foster innovation, in addition to making their own development and operations more efficient. Service and Application Driven World The use of IT is becoming service driven, consumption based rather than allocated in terms of budget and resources. As a consequence, supply chains are also becoming more and more service-oriented. Traditional system/it vendors are becoming service companies. Traditional outsourcing seems to blend seamlessly with newer cloud delivery models. With outsourcing services put on top of a cloud-based delivery, cloud computing becomes a complement rather than a replacement for outsourcing. As self-service capability defines the cloud user experience, the ability to manage multiple services (both cloud and non-cloud services) through a single pane of glass will become an integral part of product offerings. Service providers are rethinking their service management strategies and are opting for an alternative to improve service visibility and control. Simplicity and ease of management tops the list of cloud investment priorities. Application marketplaces have taken hold in the business segment. The first iteration of business app marketplaces was largely driven by service commoditisation; however, the new generation of app marketplaces is market-driven, with intuitive design and functionality such as chargeback, usage
62 NGC Roadmap Study 56 analysis, tier-based management and single sign-on. These app marketplaces appear to be very userfriendly for non-technical users, and some user interfaces and marketplace frameworks enable customisation. There will be room for adding new features and functionality to address an increasingly diverse customer base horizontally and vertically. As enterprise-focused private-branded marketplaces continue to gain ground, the appeal of app marketplaces will go deeper into vertical industry segments. Application integration and management remain a daunting challenge as businesses continue to add new services out of the service catalogue. There are concerns about security and data governance as well. As the app marketplace model continues to evolve, providers will have no choice but to address these challenges moving forward. Mobile Computing and Bring Your Own Device The rapid adoption of smartphones and tablets combined with the (BYOD) philosophy is causing organisations to rethink client computing strategies. Client platforms and associated environments will be dominated by mobile devices, in many cases by clients of the user's choice, and back-end environments have to adjust accordingly. 6.2 High-level European SWOT analysis An important further consideration of the state-of-play analysis is the current position and situation of Europe as well as its member states. The following SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats) analysis is based on several previous SWOT analysis exercises in the areas of embedded systems, cloud computing, and high-performance computing as well as input from domain experts. European Strengths Europe has a large (500+ million) and politically stable common market. It also has a strong background in research, a high-quality education system, and a myriad of innovative SMEs. Europe has a particularly strong telecommunications and mobile computing industry and very high mobile penetration. There are good telecom networks and there is a high general availability of broadband. Europe has a strong software industry and world-class independent software vendors. With all the convergence happening, software (as well as the assembly/aggregation/packaging of components) is where the commercial and economic value will be. Europe has a strong background in open source code development and many ongoing research projects (for example SOA, distributed systems) and open source technologies. There is strong expertise in building high-value industry-specific applications and ICT services. There are strong embedded ecosystems from low-power VLSI to consumer products. There are leading processing element and IP producers in the embedded sector (for example ARM, ST). Europe is strong in real-time and safety-critical applications (automotive, aeronautics, automation, energy, health) with a world-class engineering community. There are also large European end-users with strong market presence in the automotive, aerospace and defence industry as well as in telecommunication infrastructure. There is a good level of networking of large players with small SMEs, in particular in the embedded domain. Europe is leading in energy-efficiency, not only legislation-wise, but in terms of products too. Northern Europe is a particularly attractive destination for highly energy-efficient data centres. Europe has a strong know-how in renewable-energy technologies too. Europe is ahead of thinking in Smart Cities and Internet of Things (for example low-power home networks, embedded capability to join the network), which combined with energy efficient technologies can make a real difference.
63 NGC Roadmap Study 57 Europe s scientific and engineering communities in parallel and in high-performance computing are of very high quality with particular strengths in engineering and algorithm development and expertise in high-value industry specific applications. High-performance computing centres are well networked and supported by research funding initiatives. There is a strong science base in electronics and optical products as well as in embedded and real-time systems. Table 4: Specific sector strengths in selected regions of Europe 2 EU Region / Member State Benelux D-A-CH France Nordics Spain UK&I Strengths Data Centres, Hosting, Cloud, Software Hardware, Software, Data Centres, Hosting, Finance/Banking, Automotive Mobile, Aerospace, Data Centres, Travel services, Smart Technologies Mobile, Internet & Services, Biosciences/Biomedical, Digital Technologies, Energy efficiency Biosciences/Biomedical, Communications, Data Centres, Travel services Hosting, Cloud, Internet & Services, Big Data/Data Analytics, Finance/Banking, Mobile, Data Centres, Automotive Europe has proven experience in addressing new technological trends and governmental issues (interoperability, convergence) including global policies. European companies (including SMEs) and researchers are used to working in different cultural environments, across country borders, and in international teams. European Weaknesses Europe has a significant flaw when it comes to knowledge transfer between industry and academia. There are often fewer industry links and exchanges with the academic world than in other industrialized countries. This does not foster an appropriate investment in truly innovative European technologies emerging from scientific research. European researchers on the other hand are less active than academics in other countries in marketing their results also economically. In addition, European start-ups are often hindered by a lack of European venture capital and bureaucracy. Europe needs tighter coordination between EU, regional and national RTDI efforts and programmes. Coordination of research and strategy between European member states is a huge challenge and time-consuming. Some member state regulations hinder cloud implementation. Europe has significantly fewer major players in the computing sector compared to the US and a majority of microprocessors, GPUs, and memory systems are designed outside Europe. 3 The main cloud providers are not European and few resource infrastructures are available in Europe. Europe is 2 Based on company ranking data from Truffle100, Red Herring Europe 2012, Forbes etc. (www.truffle100.com, 3 Important exceptions are ARM for processors and Bull for high-performance computing.
64 NGC Roadmap Study 58 primarily a consumer not provider. The development of new cloud technologies is weak in Europe compared to the US. Europe lacks a market ecosystem around European providers. There is a fragmented SME market in software engineering and a lack of critical size which makes it challenging to create sustainable and globally competitive ecosystems. Europe is not investing as much in high-performance computing as other regions and European rank Japan and US ahead of Europe in high-performance computing research. Opportunities for Europe Europe has good basic research in several fields and an outstanding education system. Europe has the potential to retain talent (for example researchers) and could become more attractive to young experts coming from other parts of the world. This is an opportunity not only for research, but also in order to guarantee a critical skilled workforce as required by industry (for example technology and service providers). In many current or predicted growth markets, Europe s global position is still very good, for example health, energy, automotive, aeronautics. Europe can achieve leadership in cross-domain technology transfer between adjacent or converging fields (for example energy efficiency and smart city, cloud computing and Internet of Things, etc.). Building on its strong background in basic research, Europe can invest efficiently in agile programming models; software design and development; assembly and integration of components; and product management. Technology disruption creates an opportunity for low-power high-performance computing with companies such as ARM at the forefront. New technologies will allow easy fractional billing and support/open up opportunities offered by the Internet of Things. Europe has one of the world s most competitive markets for high-performance computing. There is also an opportunity for application and product innovation in selected applications at low cost for SMEs. High-performance resources could be made more widely available especially to SMEs through economic models similar to cloud technologies. There are significant opportunities for multi-cloud application management such as next generation cloud brokers, federation, and interoperability. Simplification of existing infrastructure can make cloud systems more efficient; there are opportunities for more intelligent governance of data centres and tighter integration of hard and software (for example interface). There are still growing markets for components and systems. European expertise in low-power and embedded systems has the potential to be exploited for solutions in the environment, energy and mobility domains. There is a strong trend towards CPS systems and internet-of-things. There is an opportunity to make legislation (for example data protection) simpler, supportive, and harmonised across the EU so these rules foster innovation within the EU and elsewhere. European governments could lead by example (for example adopt new technologies, consolidate government operated data centres) and this way foster innovation.
65 NGC Roadmap Study 59 Threats for Europe There is a weak supply of scientists and engineers, in particular in the computing areas. The US attracts innovative European ideas, and it is more attractive for European talents too. The US is better at setting well-defined goals/targets and exploiting innovative ideas commercially. The structure of the European RTDI framework programme is not properly adapted to addressing quickly changing market and technology needs. Large and deep-pocketed US and APAC-based companies are acquiring small and innovative European companies including independent software vendors. There is a danger of increased European dependence on US and other non-eu providers. The US-based cloud infrastructure is ahead of Europe where we lack Infrastructure-as-a-Service providers. It may already be too late to build up local cloud resource infrastructure and too costly. Other regions of the world are catching up quickly (for example mobile applications, cloud technology). Asian countries are moving from production to R&D. They are catching up both at the low-end market and invest heavily in developing their own high-end solutions (for example general purpose processor technologies such as Loongson). There is a risk, that Europe will lose its dominance in low-power processors. The following table provides information about particularly competitive sectors in Europe s member states (so-called competitiveness hotspots in Europe ) 4. Several EU member states exhibit clear strengths in important ICT application sectors and future RTDI policies should aim at exploiting these national strongholds. The table also indicates that a few sectors such as energy and transport are promising ICT application areas in many European countries. Other such as food and agriculture are strengths in many countries and could become key ICT application sectors in the future. 4 Competitiveness hotspots in Europe (Source: Research and innovation performance in EU member states and associated countries, Innovation Union progress at country level; EC DG Research, Brussels). (http://ec.europa.eu/research/innovation-union/pdf/state-of-theunion/2012/innovation_union_progress_at_country_level_2013.pdf)
66 NGC Roadmap Study 60 Table 5: Competitive sectors in Europe s member states (so-called competitiveness hotspots in Europe )
67 NGC Roadmap Study 61 5 geothermal
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69 NGC Roadmap Study 63 7 Research Priorities The scenarios facilitate the construction of a matrix listing broad technology areas and their relevance to each scenario. This matrix is shown below including a ranking on a 3-point scale of high, medium and low relevance to each of the seven scenarios. The purpose of this is to identify technology areas with high cross-cutting relevance. These are further described in the recommendations section of this chapter with special emphasis on cases where there is high value across several (or all) scenarios. Table 6: Technology relevance matrix for the scenarios All about me All about us Trains with brains Connected brains Health and Happiness Renewtopia At a factory near you Cyber-physical systems H L H M M M H Smart systems H M H L H M H Organic and large-area electronics M L L L M H M Smart materials H M L L H M H Customised and low-power computing H H H M M H H Energy technologies M L M L L H M Cognitive systems H M H H M L M Smart optical and wireless network technologies L H M M M M M Advanced cloud infrastructures H H H H M H H Tools and methods for software development Advanced communications network infrastructure H L M M M M M H H H H H M H Big data analytics H H M H M L H Human learning and teaching L H L H M L M Gaming H L L L L L L Multimodal computer interaction M L H M M M H Industrial and service robotics M M L M L M H
71 NGC Roadmap Study 65 The consumerisation of IT, i.e. the fact that consumers are now in the driver s seat for IT innovation, demands that companies embrace user-driven innovation also in their business processes. This includes the trends towards bring-your-own-device which is still a problem for enterprise IT. It will also drive mobile apps for businesses where there is still huge potential in nearly all business areas from supply chains or logistics to sales and maintenance. Although MOOCs (massive open online courses) are primarily a content-related topic, they can also impact on next generation computing when combined with the trend to gamification (i.e. the use of game thinking non-game contexts). Increasingly they should also be accessible with mobile devices. Stakeholders in this area include academic institutions, but also computing associations, SMEs in the education sector and gaming companies including start-ups. In a similar direction, we expect to see innovative applications of crowd computing. The term has been used to describe tools enabling idea and knowledge sharing, collaboration and collective decision-making of large numbers of people, for example regarding political issues or projects. The time has come for large-scale crowd computing deployment both in private and public sectors. There have been actions in the EU to support open data initiatives with an emphasis on public data. To realise the benefits of new forms of cooperation, these approaches need to be expanded to scientific data where incentives are largely missing for scientists to make their data bases publicly accessible. The EU and the member states should incentivise publication of data, for example in the case of funded research and innovation projects Standards In general, interoperability of systems will remain a major challenge for standardisation. This needs to be addressed at many different levels and with a view of different non-functional system requirements, for example cost, security, privacy, sustainability (legacy). Priorities will include open interfaces for services and industry wide communication standards. Specific European challenges include code produced in different countries, communication between systems, frequencies and protocols. It is also necessary to include an end user perspective with issues such as mobility in European countries (for example pan-european toll systems, cross-border roaming hand-over, connectivity). Industry should take a lead in the standardization of interfaces in heterogeneous systems. The goal should be an agile market place of services. Community-led open-source developments have the potential to disrupt the marketplace (and make it competitive) by making it easy for smaller market players to jump in and try their chances, without necessarily destroying the leading players in the market. An example is OpenStack which delivers a massively scalable cloud operating system with a modular approach. Such initiatives can benefit from recognition and lean support at EU level and from bringing together stakeholders from industry, research, SMEs etc. Several areas such as cloud technologies and the internet-of-things will particularly benefit from interoperability and standardization. Many countries including the large economies of the world are already pushing their standards in this area. It is important that European actors are aware of these activities, exploit their potential and contribute to standardisation and interoperability initiatives.
72 NGC Roadmap Study Research programme recommendations Software and application development General purpose hardware is becoming a commodity and hardware technology is expensive to develop. For this reason, Europe should put a strong focus on software and on the IP in hardware design. With all the convergence happening, software and IP is also where the commercial and economic value will be and not primarily in mass production. The exceptions are special-purpose hardware, in particular in the embedded and real-time computing segment but also in safety-critical or defence applications. In a similar line, IP and design development will be important value drivers in the computing market: chip design, system and software design and development; new, more agile programming models; tools to easily develop software/applications for complex systems and their management considering smart devices, data analytics, tools for porting code quickly and easily. Research priorities should include autonomous systems together with dynamic and reconfigurable computing (including self-programming software) and dependable systems. There is a strong persisting demand for breakthroughs in managing the complexities of software and systems design including the challenges of parallelism and heterogeneous components paired with the need to manipulate massive data sets. This may spur research into new programming models to deal with parallelism and heterogeneity, but also address space models- and matching programming models to the diverse architectures of the future. An important remaining challenge is the issue of migrating existing application and developing new ones adapted to be run on millions of cores and new software tools, adapted to the needs of the new applications. We need much better tools to harvest the potential of multicore systems and parallelism. Research actions should include handling dynamics in multicore systems during runtime. The design of large software systems is still suffering from huge inefficiencies at many levels from work productivity to reuse and code overhead. Approaches and tools for improving software design efficiency are still in demand but also require integrated tool chains including testing, distribution, maintenance, interoperability and legacy integration. We are lacking systems facilitating connectivity management in a user-friendly fashion. Future network infrastructure and management systems should do away with the need to maintain personal databases of networks, passwords, terms and conditions of usage, pricing models and such like for a broad range of personal devices. Technologies to facilitate this could include location-based service delivery, generalized policies and pricing models and individual service delivery preference models and registries Cloud In the area of the cloud, it will be important to simplify existing infrastructure and devise more efficient systems; ensure closer integration of IT and facilities (for example modular data centre); provide intelligent governance of data centres; facilitate tight integration of hardware and software (for example interface). Integration of data centres with renewable energy sources will underpin much of this. Other important topics are multi-cloud application management including next generation cloud brokers, federation and interoperability. Novel Big Data services require high-speed analytics based on advanced cloud services hosted in secure autonomic data centres.
73 NGC Roadmap Study 67 The EC could support the development of approaches or standards to increase interoperability between cloud services and infrastructure providers in order to enable efficient interworking and migration of services, applications and data. It will be important to combine individual SMAC (social, mobile, analytics and cloud) technologies. These individual technologies have developed well over the last few years, the combination of the four is expected to cause big shifts and disruptions in several technology areas, industries and business models. Also, the dynamic configuration, automated provisioning and orchestration of cloud resources would result in improved availability, flexibility and elasticity of services; and would facilitate a coherent deployment of distributed applications over heterogeneous infrastructures and platforms from multiple providers. Important stakeholders include service providers from the hosting, cloud and telecom industries. Issues of security and privacy require more attention both in research and in innovation. New cloud technologies and applications must be made cyber-attack proof. Research should address multiple levels of security and privacy in distributed networks, secure services from non-trusted hardware, but also include non-technical issues such as security rights and obligations, management of security and privacy expectations, user-centric approaches to privacy and security Embedded and Cyber Physical Systems (CPS) Europe should focus on leveraging existing strengths in embedded systems to the cyber-physical domain. The vision is for smart, networked CPS incorporating parallelism using onboard multicore. It will be important to support the whole value chain from components (with an emphasis on design) and systems to applications and services. While there is a strong trend for general-purpose hardware to become a commodity, embedded and real-time hardware components will continue to be important for European system integrators and vendors. Apart from low power technologies, hardware and software research of FPGAs and embedded multicore processors remains an important topic unless disruptive technologies emerge. Challenges also remain in 3D heterogeneous integration, both for low-power and also possibly for efficient data transfer. Privacy in networked embedded devices and CPS should be addressed in research and innovation projects. It will be necessary to develop privacy-maintaining technologies for embedded systems based on existing and new theoretical approaches. Particular attention needs to be given to informed choices for users who are now often unaware of the consequences of their use of technology. User-centric approaches are required that facilitate privacy management over ranges of applications and technologies. Security aspects in embedded systems need to be considered in a broader societal, legal and political context as well as in combination with standardisation, interoperability and legacy issues. Research in embedded and CPS should include security from non-secure components. Stakeholders should include end users such as utilities, citizens and governments. Technologies that will allow fractional billing are key to support and open up a myriad of opportunities offered by the Internet of Things. In this area, standardisation and integration will be key, but constantly challenged by innovation and new players.
74 NGC Roadmap Study 68 Apart from standardisation, research is also needed on the underlying principles and best practices for horizontal (common technical) and vertical (industry) integration. This also includes service description and discovery mechanisms. Specific European strengths such as those in energy efficiency and in particular in power electronics require more attention also at the European level. This is an area where Europe is still strong in hardware, but also in systems and applications. More integrated activities are needed bringing together existing and new players in the value chain to foster innovation of energy efficient technologies based on leading-edge power electronics. Dealing with legacy systems will remain important also in business IT environments, but it is of utmost importance in CPS (for example in the transportation domain). Systems such as airplanes are required to be maintainable for a minimum of five, ten or even twenty years. There is relatively little research in this field, in particular in relation to the size of the sector. Issues include porting to new hardware, real-time behaviour, provable correctness etc. Also in embedded and CPS heterogeneity, multicore and massively parallel computing remain key challenges. Other emerging topics are reconfigurable and communication-centric architectures HPC HPC is moving in two rather different directions: exascale systems and software as a priority topic on the one hand and less emphasis on supercomputers on the other with more emphasis on cloud and small devices (i.e. the mass market). In the former case there will be a need for applications that can exploit exascale systems. In the case of HPC in cloud and small devices, low power HPC will be the objective. Many application areas will be able to benefit including real-time modelling and simulation. Programming and tool-chains are important research and development directions. The ability to take a single source code and transform it for high performance on a wide variety of hardware platforms is central and key to productivity in all areas of computation in the coming decade. Another important trend is complex real-time simulations integrating rich sensor data into the simulation process in an automated fashion. Research is required on organizational frameworks and tools but also in delivery models for broader user groups (for example SMEs) including on-demand and pay-as-you-go service delivery. This is also a potential topic for cloud technologies and stakeholders including database vendors, enterprise software houses, independent software vendors, universities and technology providers Computing and power There is strong demand for energy-efficient computing solutions, in terms of both components and architectures. Specific measures should target a strategy around the ARM processors and including research into energy efficient storage. Other topics include energy-aware computing, HW/SW cooperation for low power, energy efficient memories and energy storage. Efficient use of multicore is a clear example where an opportunity exists. Generally, Europe is leading in energy-efficiency (especially carbon emissions), not only regulationwise, but in terms of products too. There are opportunities for energy efficiency and data centres in Northern Europe due to technologies such as fresh air cooling, liquid cooling, on-site clean energy generation and local sharing via micro grids.
75 NGC Roadmap Study 69 In this context, the use of renewables is also important in general, as well as software that makes data centres more efficient such as advanced DCIM (that make automated decisions, respond and adapt to changes, diagnose and anticipate problems, etc) and the concept of the autonomic datacentre. Europe is ahead of thinking in smart cities and Internet of Things (for example low-power home networks, embedded capability to join the network). Europe should exploit the opportunities to build on both energy and smart city IP to harvest waste energy from computing. Non-volatile RAM (NV-RAM) has the potential to induce major changes in system design both at the hardware and software level. It not only affects booting, but also provides potential paradigm shifts and opportunities in security, safety and recovery of computing systems. Europe should therefore support the development of competencies in NV-RAM even if it does not become a major hardware producer Advanced interfaces Almost every technological, business and social trend indicates greater use of digital systems to the point where they become pervasive in almost every aspect of life. This introduces challenges of how interactions between human and computer, computer and computer and environment and computer will be achieved. Technologies to support natural and immersive interfaces such as advanced mixed-reality devices will have wide application and high impact, together with the research into health, behavioural and psychological aspects of exposure to the ubiquitous digital landscape. 7.3 Game-changing and disruptive technologies at the horizon There are a number of computing technologies which are active research fields and have the potential to disrupt whole business areas. These technologies could become real economic game changers, but are not yet technically mature, neither are they economically viable at a large scale today. Although there have often been exaggerated hypes about such new technologies, it is important to closely monitor and support development research in these fields to exploit potential opportunities early. In the following section, we list a few of those potentially game-changing technologies for which it is yet unclear whether they will reach maturity soon. The following technologies were identified as potential breakthrough technologies in a 5-10 years timescale. Quantum computing Research on using quantum-mechanical phenomena to perform operations on data started in the 1980s. The field is still in its infancy, but quantum computational operations have already been performed. Computation with superpositions of states promises the ability to solve large-scale computational problems significantly faster than with any known and in some cases possible probabilistic classical algorithm. In particular, there is strong interest in the potential application of quantum computing to factorisation problem which in turn is of central importance in many cryptographic applications. But quantum computing could also revolutionise other problems which are computationally intractable today such as optimisation or database search problems. The related technology of quantum cryptography is also an emerging field with many ongoing research projects today.
76 NGC Roadmap Study 70 Cognitive digital assistants Research and development on intelligent or cognitive assistants has a long tradition. In the past many of the systems could not live up to the high expectations of users regarding robustness and usefulness. Recently, however, systems supporting users in everyday tasks in a natural fashion have become more robust and reliable. This includes natural language and speech interfaces for mobile devices, trip planning and booking or translation services. A next wave of systems may be able to integrate natural interfaces with robust planning, support interoperability with legacy systems and provide the glue to compose truly useful, reliable and robust digital assistants. Batteries and energy sources Energy sources for computing devices will remain a major challenge, in particular for CPS. Future systems will require components that do not need battery charging or connection to a centralised power supply for long periods (i.e. years). Despite advances in new technologies such as energy harvesting, major technology and application disruptions are to be expected from breakthroughs in new battery and energy source technologies (supercapacitors, fuel cells, etc.) Service robots and autonomous driving The broad availability of autonomously mobile systems such as self-steering cars, delivery and surveillance drones and other advanced service robots will be a major game changer provided that the technology becomes widely accepted. Many technologies to support these systems are now available or are in the later stages of development. Legal and social aspects, including most notably security and privacy concerns of citizens still require attention. Stakeholders include telecom industries, logistic service providers, automotive and other transport sector players. Autonomous driving alone has the potential to change whole business and service sectors, even at earlier stages of only semi-autonomous driving. Smart materials Advances in new materials for computing systems and devices have the potential to significantly change the way in which computing is made available and used. Examples include flexible/foldable/rollable/transformational screens and computing systems but also wearable and washable devices. Research in areas such as graphene, organic semiconductors and printed electronics promises to open new opportunities in particular with unconventional user interfaces. This could lead to implantable and wearable computing, more screenless smartphones and personal IT systems.
77 NGC Roadmap Study 71 8 Roadmap 8.1 Scenario-specific roadmaps This section identifies major technological challenges and milestones per scenario including their positioning on a time scale with respect to complexity / costs and importance / impact The Digital Citizen: It s all about me Identified technological challenges and milestones relevant for this scenario: Organic and large-area electronics Advanced displays for natural and immersive interfaces Smart materials and products Implantable/wearable devices and sensors Customised and low-power computing Efficient use of multicore to address short to medium term hardware trends Energy efficient architectures to enable low power personal devices and energy efficient services New energy efficient technology for processors and memory to allow step-change in energy efficiency and cost of services, and in between-charge times for devices Energy technologies 10x battery energy density to enable longer between-charge time for personal devices. Energy harvesting to enable devices that never need connection to an external power supply Cognitive systems Autonomous cognitive systems capable of predictive modelling, particularly to support digital assistants Smart optical and wireless network technologies Ubiquitous urban access so that at least in urban areas consumers are always connected via high bandwidth Advanced cloud infrastructures Open interfaces for services to promote rapid service development, deployment and interoperation. Cyber-attack proof to promote trust in services and encourage uptake by all Policy on strong encryption Tools and methods for software development Agile market place of services enabled by rich set of tools applicable across platforms and skilled workforce Advanced communications network infrastructure 6G networks to enable good connectivity for consumers and systems everywhere.
78 NGC Roadmap Study 72 Big data analytics Robust real-time processing of data to support smart services and services which interact with real time data from sensor networks Multimodal computer interaction Natural and immersive interfaces to support multi-modes of interaction (natural language gesture, mood as input, audio, visual, tactile and augmented reality as output) Digital assistant with cognitive abilities to act intelligently on behalf of the user
79 NGC Roadmap Study The Digital Nation: It s all about us Identified technological challenges and milestones relevant for this scenario: Cognitive systems Technologies for civil security, for example safety and crime prevention/detection (advanced image and behaviour recognition) Smart optical and wireless network technologies Connectivity for all, focus on remote areas to avoid digital blind-spots Advanced cloud infrastructures Open interfaces for services to stimulate service creation and generate economic growth Cyber-attack proof to encourage take-up and trust Protection of privacy to ensure citizens rights Multiple levels of security Tools and methods for software development Agile market place of services enabled by standards, cross platform tools and skilled workforce to stimulate economic growth Advanced communications network infrastructure 6G Big data analytics Exascale HPC applications to support critical systems Big data analytics to support real-time government decision making Multimodal computer interaction Natural and immersive interfaces to support multi-modes of interaction (natural language gesture, mood as input, audio, visual, tactile and augmented reality as output) Digital assistant with cognitive abilities to act intelligently on behalf of the user
80 NGC Roadmap Study 74
81 NGC Roadmap Study Intelligent Transport: Trains and other vehicles with brains Identified technological challenges and milestones relevant for this scenario: Cyber-physical systems Massive parallel CPS with on-board multicore applications Open Source EU Licence Standards o o Smart systems Device interfaces Service interfaces See also smart environment Enhanced transportation services o o New services based on transportation and travel including various vehicle types ebay for single transportation jobs based on real-time data Open interfaces to transportation systems o Market boost and enabler: Apps, providers, digital assistant applications Open Source EU Licence Standards o o Device interfaces Service interfaces Digital Assistants that use and combine various cloud data Autonomous systems o Incorporating CPS, tracking systems, markers, sensors and actuators in the environment -not capable of cognitive decisions Smart environment for autonomous systems which is aware of vehicles, aircrafts and other systems and can react on different situations. Sensors, networks and actuators integrated in the environment Energy technologies Energy efficiency o Different phases: Growing importance relative to scarcity of resources Battery technologies o o New high-density batteries for devices, vehicles, drones Extended range, extended payload, enabling new technologies Avoid data deluge see also section Big data analytics
82 NGC Roadmap Study 76 Cognitive systems Digital Assistants o Powerful assistant capabilities (travel & leisure, secretarial support) human like cognitive decision making based on massive available data Autonomous cognitive systems o Advanced cloud infrastructures Robust adaptation to dynamic environments Robust processing of real-time data (data coming from sensors, interfaces, vari. networks, cloud, ) o o Deterministic and real time communication Short and guaranteed response times Tools and methods for software development Avoid data deluge see also section Big data analytics Advanced communications network infrastructure Affordable European data roaming 6G High bandwidth low latency Coverage - mobile network coverage Vehicle-to-Vehicle communication o o Ad-hoc / mesh communication and distribution of information Approaches to mediate between distributed and centralised approaches (car-to-car vs travel databases, traffic control & management) Dependable systems availability, performance, safety, security privacy, maintainability Big data analytics Avoid data deluge o o Storing and transmitting the right amount of data Find the appropriate level of detail based on the services or tasks Multimodal computer interaction Natural and robust interfaces o o Robust natural language communication (also in noisy environments) Gestures
83 NGC Roadmap Study 77 Privacy and security Cyber-attack proof o Artificial immune systems to protect viable structures and networks Personal profile protection (digital assistants, smart systems, etc.) Privacy new trusted systems o Reliable and trusted communication o Crucial for various services and digital assistant scenarios (storage of profiles etc.)
84 NGC Roadmap Study Education and Research: Connected brains Identified technological challenges and milestones relevant for this scenario: Cyber-physical systems Advanced lab robotics Virtual laboratory infrastructure (open, interoperable devices) Customised and low-power computing Low-power high-performance computing Cognitive systems Collaborative work support Advanced knowledge management tools Intelligent social network management Advanced cloud infrastructures Dynamically reconfigurable computing services Large-scale open data repository and access services Tools and methods for software development Flexible, platform-independent simulation tools Self-adaptive (data-driven) simulation development software MOOC methodologies (Massive Open Online Courses) Advanced communications network infrastructure Low-latency broad bandwidth networks Big data analytics Robust anomaly and novelty detection High speed analytics based on cloud services Multimodal computer interaction Intuitive user interfaces for big data analysis Advanced mixed reality devices Privacy and security Secure communication systems ( , social networks) Industrial and service robotics Advanced laboratory robots Virtual lab infrastructure
85 NGC Roadmap Study 79
86 NGC Roadmap Study Future Healthcare: Health and happiness in the digital age Identified technological challenges and milestones relevant for this scenario: Cyber-physical systems Smart systems Examples see smart materials and products Examples see smart materials and products Smart materials and products Smart systems that can operate interactively and autonomously. Smart systems that can connect and integrate with hospital interactive platforms and networks, smart medicine cabinets, smart dressings, data centres, wider government infrastructure and facilities via smart systems Wearable Computing such as smart watches, smart dressings and implantable devices. Wearable computing with intelligent interfaces to combine user inputs and outputs Lab-on-a-chip integrating one or more laboratory functions via a single chip Customised and low-power computing Energy efficient - smart systems with more battery power and which require fewer connections to main power supply Smart optical and wireless network technologies Advanced cloud infrastructures Secure Data Centres which securely store the data from smart devices, network platforms and VTEs Secure Data Centres which support the utilisation of technologies, and which optimise energy usage Tools and methods for software development Virtual Training Environments (VTEs) - simulated medical environments to train health professionals. VTEs which have advanced software to test the practitioner. VTEs that interact with sensors, control surfaces to dermine progress of simulation, current or historical data and values output from simulation Advanced software to capture and track for example vital signs tracking and transmit this data to the hospital networked interactive platform Advanced communications network infrastructure Ubiquitous Networking - facilitating the use of any device, in any location, and in any format Going beyond 6+ generation of mobile phone communication technology standards to improve networks and wireless systems. Improving capabilities and connectivity. Telepresence technologies to support interaction and communication between patients and medical providers
87 NGC Roadmap Study 81 Big data analytics Data Management Systems which are intuitive and are capable of interacting with the user, smart devices and the database to capture and analyse data ultimately a system which can make automated decisions and adapt to change Real-time Processing of Data analytics to support the processing of data from smart devices, hospital network and VTEs Multimodal computer interaction Engaging and immersive interfaces to support the hospital networked interactive platform Interfaces which support interaction for example audio, video and natural language Interfaces which maintain user information Interfaces which explain results to the user Privacy and security Ensuring devices, networks and platforms are Security proof and are protected from cyberattacks to ensure trust and confidence in technology from users perspective Protecting Privacy of data to ensure privacy and data protection laws adhered Personalised Medical Services providers embracing technology to provide secure and personalised medical services to patients
88 NGC Roadmap Study 82
89 NGC Roadmap Study Living with scarce resources: Renewtopia Advanced Communications Network Infrastructure 6th generation mobile networks and wireless systems with 10x 4G bandwidth levels, lowlatency and integrated Wi-Fi; self-healing and self-optimising capabilities; context awareness Multimodal Computer Interaction Wearable computing and devices Intelligent, multimodal interfaces able to combine different types of inputs and outputs (for example speech, gesture, etc.) Advanced software able to capture, process and manage multimodal input/output Advanced Cloud Infrastructure Dynamic configuration, automated provisioning and orchestration of cloud resources Best Execution Venues - users able to make rational decisions about how and where to run applications and tasks based upon workload profile, policies and SLA requirements Federated cloud networking Autonomic data centre o o o advanced, dynamic and policy-based capabilities for better resource management, and to help drive up and optimise the utilisation of IT, as well as to optimize energy use End-to-end virtualization and security, and dynamic service management Advanced DCIM systems that make automated decisions, respond and adapt to changes, diagnose and anticipate problems (a single management system that manages and monitors all equipment and conditions) Customised and Low-Power Computing/ICT Power-proportional computing and IT Smart technologies and materials such as silicon photonics and graphene New memory technologies Energy Technologies On-site clean energy generation and sharing via smart micro-grids Energy storage and reuse, new battery technologies Smart energy management Integration of renewable sources with data centres, low-power technologies, infrastructure and facilities Integration of data centres with buildings and smart-city technologies Big Data Analytics Dynamic and real-time data analysis coupled with simulation
90 NGC Roadmap Study 84
91 NGC Roadmap Study Future Manufacturing: At a factory near you Identified technological challenges and milestones relevant for this scenario: Cyber-physical systems Software driven cyber-physical control systems Smart and networked CPS o o Smart systems Self-aware and contextually aware connected devices with self-programming and AI capabilities M2M, M2Network and M2Component connectivity Improved sensors for smart, remote and autonomous condition monitoring Self-aware and connected machinery, robotics and components Self-learning and smart systems that can make decisions based on real time analytics and forecasting Smart materials and products Products that can sensualise their environment, use and provide feedback for future design improvements and material / energy usage Customised and low-power computing Low power computing units within products, components and machinery Energy technologies Energy harvesting, distribution and charging of portable batteries Cognitive systems Self-ware systems that are aware of surrounding environment and can interact with other machinery and components / products AI that can self-programme depending on product / production / logistics and supply chain requirements Advanced communications network infrastructure Secure and robust connectivity required to accommodate multiple user base on an open and transparent system Open and global connectivity and communication standards Industry wide communication standards for m2m, m2c and m2n communications In a more collaborative world and one where manufacturing comprises a connected and distributed series of processes with increasingly intelligent, connected and self-learning machinery and systems, cyber security will become an increasingly critical essential that will underpin all aspects of next generation computing
92 NGC Roadmap Study 86 Advanced cloud infrastructures Secure cloud infrastructures that can accommodate transfer, storage and processing of large volumes of data in real time Cloud based platforms that can accommodate supply chain collaboration for the provision of new and enlarged services for SMEs and small companies. Tools and methods for software development Big data Self-programming software that can re-programme based on usage and intelligence gained from real time data analytics and modelling / simulation and experiential feedback loops Use of software and systems to capture, transfer, store and analyse highly complex datasets in real time that is geographically and contextually dispersed and extract value for input into a smart connected network Real-time modelling & simulation - A new generation of modelling and simulation will be required to exploit the large of amounts of data being generated and to extract value and make decisions in real time. This will include closed loop life cycle management of components and materials that are utilised in both the product and the manufacturing process
93 NGC Roadmap Study 87
94 NGC Roadmap Study Combined European Roadmap Based on the interviews, the desk research, the online-consultation and the experts input at the workshops the 7 roadmaps covering each of the introduced scenarios were designed. Based on these roadmaps and the expert discussions at the 2 nd workshop a combined view of the major milestones and challenges could be derived. A final discussion of this combined roadmap and recommendations for the focus of future work programmes are given in chapter Roadmap of this report.
95 NGC Roadmap Study 89 Acknowledgements This study was prepared in the frame of the EC service contract SMART 2012/0052 A comparative analysis of potential options for a roadmap-based initiative on next generation computing. We thank all experts for their valuable contributions during the interviews and the discussions at the workshops as well as all participants of the online consultation for their views on Next Generation Computing. Special thanks to Stephane Requena and Jan Stowisek for the support of the French translation and to Tom Mackinger from tomillu.com for the illustrations.
97 CATALOGUE NUMBER European Commission Next Generation Computing Roadmap Luxembourg, Publications Office of the European Union ISBN DOI: /4587
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