TABLE OF CONTENTS MARKET STRATEGY The big picture Global economy Domestic economy Inflation Interest rate

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2 217 Compendium Published 5 December 216 TABLE OF CONTENTS MARKET STRATEGY 3-14 The big picture Global economy Domestic economy Inflation Interest rate IDR..... GDP growth..... Economic forecasts.... Local politics.. Public policies.. Various policies Indonesian markets 83 Indonesia equity and bond performance 84 IDR sensitivity 86 Sector performances 93 4Q16F results 1 Market valuation 11 Top picks and index target technical perspective 13 SECTOR Overweight Neutral Neutral Underweight Automotive 16 Banks 18 Cement. 11 Coal. 112 Oil & Gas.. Plantations Land Transportation Poultry Construction, Toll road & Infra-related 114 Consumer Staples. 12 Shipping Consumer Discretionary Media 116 Consumer Discretionary Retail 118 Industrial Estates 124 Telecommunication 14 Healthcare 122 Property 136 Tobacco 142 Tourism 144 Metal Mining 128 COMPANY Automotive related Waskita Beton Precast Japfa Comfeed Indonesia 232 Astra International Gajah Tunggal Indomobil Sukses Internasional Wijaya Karya 346 Wijaya Karya Beton 348 Consumer Discretionary - Media Malindo Feedmill Property Alam Sutera Realty Banks Global Mediacom Bumi Serpong Damai 192 Bank Bukopin Bank Central Asia Ciputra Development Ciputra Property Bank Danamon 172 Bank Mandiri Intiland Development Lippo Karawaci Pakuwon Jati 278 Bank Negara Indonesia Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jabar Banten Bank Pembangunan Daerah Jawa Timur Bank Rakyat Indonesia. Adaro Energy Indo Tambangraya Megah. United Tractors Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam Construction & toll roads Adhi Karya Jasa Marga Pembangunan Perumahan. Total Bangun Persada Waskita Karya Bank Tabungan Negara 184 Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasional 186 Cement Holcim Indonesia 216 Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa. 218 Semen Baturaja. 3 Semen Indonesia 32 Coal & mining contracting Link Net Media Nusantara Citra MNC Sky Vision Surya Citra Media Visi Media Asia.. Consumer Discretionary - Retail Ace Hardware Indonesia. Catur Sentosa Adiprana Erajaya Swasembada. Matahari Dept. Store. Matahari Putra Prima.. Mitra Adiperkasa Ramayana Lestari Sentosa. Tiphone Mobile Indonesia Consumer - Staples Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur Indofood Sukses Makmur. Kino Indonesia.. Mayora Indah. Nippon Indosari Corpindo. Unilever Indonesia Healthcare Kalbe Farma Kimia Farma Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat. Sido Muncul Siloam International Hospitals Tempo Scan Pacific Industrial estates Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate Kawasan Industri Jababeka Lippo Cikarang.. Pura Delta Lestari.. Surya Semesta Internusa Land Transportation Adi Sarana Armada Blue Bird.. Express Transindo Utama Metal mining Aneka Tambang J Resources Asia Pasifik. Krakatau Steel.. Merdeka Copper Gold Timah... Vale Indonesia Oil & gas AKR Corporindo. Medco Energy. Perusahaan Gas Negara Plantations Astra Agro Lestari London Sumatra Indonesia Salim Ivomas Pratama Sampoerna Agro Tunas Baru Lampung Poultry Charoen Pokphand Indonesia PP Properti Summarecon Agung Shipping Pelayaran Tempuran Emas.. Soechi Lines.. Wintermar Offshore Marine. Telecommunications Anabatic Technologies Indosat 226 Sarana Menara Nusantara 298 Telekomunikasi Indonesia. 32 Tower Bersama Infrastructure.. 33 XL Axiata.. Tobacco Gudang Garam Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna.. Tourism Garuda Indonesia Panorama Sentrawisata

3 217 Compendium MARKET STRATEGY 3

4 217 Compendium This page has been left intentionally blank 4

5 217 Compendium The big picture 5

6 217 Compendium 3 sources of deflation, The US started tapering QE in 213 and began interest rate normalization in December 215. However, we believe the market priced in the highest probability of forward-rate hikes, taking the USD to its decade high. China started to be disciplined with debt growth when Premier Xi took office in 212. However, that discipline reversed in 4Q15. EU and Japan QEs have produced weaker JPY and EUR against the USD, and had contributed to deflationary forces during the period. However, weakening trends of the 2 currencies have stabilized. JCI Index vs. Commodities Index, (pts) 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 (pts) China debt to GDP, 22-16F (% of GDP) F New Bank Lending (LHS) New Non Bank Lending (LHS) Source:CEIC, Bahana 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, JCI Index (LHS) CRB Index (RHS)

7 217 Compendium US post Trump The landscape goes from monetary to fiscal stimulus as president-elect Trump s tax and infrastructure program reverses the declining budget deficit, while accommodative monetary policy takes a back seat. US first, others second should redistribute growth and flows towards the US. Reindustrialization and import substitution will likely reduce longterm trade account deficit expectations. Tax and repatriation rate cuts should improve the US financial/capital account. President-elect Trump will likely need fiscal and monetary to work together for his policies to be effective. Will there be QE4. or some sort? USD and US yields (%) (pts) Jan-7 Oct-7 Jul-8 Apr-9 Jan-1 Oct-1 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 1yr US t-bills (LHS) Dollar Index (RHS), Bahana Indonesia post Trump Fundamentals intact, as our cyclical recovery is 1% internally driven. Jokowi will likely continue his infrastructure agenda. Commodities have outperformed in IDR terms so far. The negative is largely monetary. Indonesia is capital deficient and post Trump, externally sourced money will likely be more expensive. ID USD 1-year yields are already about 5bps higher (in-line with the US 1- year yield movements), and the ID IDR 1-year yield is already about 1bps higher. Risk premiums can significantly change depending on the political outlook. Indonesia risk premium, (%) Jan-7 Oct-7 Jul-8 Apr-9 Jan-1 Oct-1 Jul-11 Apr-12 Jan-13 Oct-13 Jul-14 Apr-15 Jan-16 Oct-16 1yr US t-bills yield (LHS) ID to US 1yr yield spread (LHS) 1yr ID government bond yield (LHS) 7

8 217 Compendium.5% - 1.% of GDP in infrastructure push to double growth Nominal GDP USD18.6tr Growth Target (%) 1.5% 2.% Growth Target (USDbn) Infra Multiplier USDbn USDbn 1.x x x Infra Multiplier % of GDP % of GDP 1.x x x.5.66 Source: US Department of Treasury >7% consumption driven now (%) C+G I X-M 4Q1 (% of GDP, LHS) 3Q16 (% of GDP, LHS) -7.8 Trump s tax and infra programme is estimated at 4% of GDP US Federal Budget Income USDtr % of GDP Individual 1, (2.) Medicare & USD Nominal GDP USD18.6tr Expenditure USDtr % of GDP Trump Trump Social Security Health Corporate (1.3) Military Payroll 1, Interest & Debt Others Transport Total 3, (3.3) Education 8.4 Others Deficit (586) (3.2) (3.8) Total Source: US Department of Treasury external leverage still low (%) Malaysia Brazil Indonesia Thailand Philippines Russia India China 8

9 217 Compendium Jokowi s infrastructure initiatives intact Commodities just started moving up (%) F 217F (USDmn) 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, - 4,86 11,5 6,985 1Q 3Q 1Q1 3Q1 1Q2 3Q2 1Q3 3Q3 1Q4 3Q4 1Q5 3Q5 1Q6 3Q6 1Q7 3Q7 1Q8 3Q8 1Q9 3Q9 1Q1 3Q1 1Q11 3Q11 1Q12 3Q12 1Q13 3Q13 1Q14 3Q14 1Q15 3Q15 1Q16 3Q16 capex + region, % of govt exp (LHS) opex + others, % of govt exp (LHS) CPO + Raw Material Exports (LHS), Bahana estimates Indonesia is capital deficient Bahana Consensus in USDbn F 217F 216F 217F Trade Consumer confidence index vs. IDR/ 1 USD (pts) (IDR/ 1USD) 15, , 13, Goods ,568 12, Services (8.3) (6.2) (5.6) Income (22.7) (24.9) (26.5) CA (17.7) (19.1) (2.) , 1, 9, 8, % of GDP (2.1) (2.) (2.1) (2.2) (2.5), Bahana forecasts BI Consumer Confidence Index (LHS) USDIDR (RHS) 9

10 217 Compendium Indonesia is capital deficient & illiquid Volatility in ID Bond yields, rupiah and risk assets were common in the past decade. Any external or internal shocks resulted in a quick inverse V reversal. Indonesia s fundamentals rarely change. Being a domestic-driven economy, consumption and government spending make up 65% of Indonesia s economy. This inherently forms a very strong base for sustainable growth. Indonesia needs USD2-3bn in external funding per year to sustain 5.% growth. Every 1% incremental growth requires about USD1bn, on our estimates. Indonesia 1-year USD CDS 28 crisis Why capital deficient and illiquid? Indonesia is small with nominal GDP at USD1.tn. Indonesia is young and hungry for capital. Indonesia is still not industrialized. The country imports everything from raw materials to heavy machinery. PIIGS QE TAPER First rate hike TRUMP???, Bahana 1

11 217 Compendium Overweight Cyclicals Industrial operating deleveraging as expansion was completed in , when demand growth slowed. Utilization dropped below optimum levels for Auto, Cement, Ceramics. Property sector marketing sales declined, especially the investment due to macro prudential measures. High-end properties have one of the highest import content among the consumption goods. IPR + C Retail is a fixed-cost business, with margins a reflection of shop churn, which in turn is a reflection of the economic cycle. We are at the bottom now and valuations are not demanding, in our view. We believe that commodities are priced at breakeven levels right now. However, current conditions do not support reserve replacement or supply expansion yet, which we think is an upside for commodities. Another factor to consider is the increased volatility of the weather, affecting production. Indonesia political cycles under Jokowi (JCI Forward P/E)

12 217 Compendium Auto utilization bottomed out in 216F Retail profit per sqm expected to recover, 28-17F (%) (IDRmn) (IDRmn) F 217F 218F F 217F Gross Profit/sqm (LHS) Opex + Other Costs/sqm (LHS) Net Profit/sqm (RHS) Property marketing sales bottomed out in 216 Prefer Nickel, CPO, Coal, 24-17F (IDRbn) (Mn bbl/day) (Mn bbl/day) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 17,662 27,55 32,469 33,815 29,857 29,426 3, , 1, 5, 6,31 6,44 1, (1.) (2.) F 217F (3.) Middle High (Rpbn, LHS) Premium (Rpbn, LHS) Surplus / (Deficit) (RHS) Supply (LHS) Demand (LHS) 12

13 217 Compendium Global economy 13

14 217 Compendium Indications of inflation recovery around the globe Global inflation should bottom in 216 together with a period of low oil and commodity prices. Interestingly, the trends for major economies are reversing, indicating possible upturn in domestic demands. Core inflation is still firm in major economies, with a slight uptick in US data. This condition already triggered steep increases in bonds yields around the globe. On the producer side, positive trends also have been spotted with the China PPI achieving its first positive PPI inflation since 212. These conditions should indicate a recovery in the China economy. This condition already brings strong dollar conditions in anticipation of a steeper-than-expected US Fed rate hike. CPI by country, January 214 3Q17F % Q1 217 Q % 217 CPI forecast US EU Japan China South Korea Core inflation by country, January 214 October 216 (%) 3. PPI inflation by country, January 214 October 216 (%) Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 US EU Japan China South Korea Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 US EU Japan China South Korea Source: IMF, Bloomberg 14

15 217 Compendium Global trade may be leaving its low position Interestingly, May-August global trade data point to a turnaround, recording better numbers at -5.3% y-y in volume and -3.4% y-y in value, far higher than the 215 year-end positions of 9.2% y-y in value and -1% y-y in volume. We see this as partly the impact of global rebalancing, which occurred in as the CNY depreciated while the JPY appreciated on a REER basis. We believe continued currency adjustments due to Japan s deflation and CNY devaluation are important to bring international trade back into balance. Outside of supply adjustments, commodity prices should be supported by continued natural currency adjustments. Global trade value and volume, January 26 - August 216 (%) Jan-7 Sep-7 May-8 Jan-9 Sep-9 May-1 Jan-11 Sep-11 May-12 Jan-13 Sep-13 May-14 Jan-15 Sep-15 May-16 Global trade value y-y Global trade volume y-y REER of GBP, EUR, JPY and CNY, January 211 October 216 (pts) Commodity prices (indexed), January 212 October 216 (pts) Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 GBP EUR JPY CNY USD 4 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Brent oil Coal Nickel Copper Tin 15

16 217 Compendium Real sector data provide mixed signals Even though trade data looks to be bottoming, the IMF and World Bank remain conservative on world GDP forecasts, with the IMF expecting 3.4% world GDP growth for 217. Interestingly, the IMF has upgraded its forecasts for China and Brazil. On PMI sentiment, some economies like Brazil, Canada, the US and China are indicating negative production sentiment and recorded higher PMIs in September. Improving producer sentiment is likely to converge with recent PPI improvements and be positive for commodity prices. IMF and World Bank GDP forecasts Difference from Difference from IMF World Bank Countries April 216 January F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F World Output United States Canada Euro Area Germany Japan France Italy UK Spain Brazil Mexico China India Indonesia Source: IMF, World Bank Producer Price Index, December October 216 Countries Dec-15 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 America Brazil Canada United States Europe Italy France Germany Eurozone Asia Pacific Australia China Japan Indonesia Singapore South Korea Purchase Manager Index, December October 216 Countries Dec-15 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 America Brazil Canada United States Europe Italy France Germany Eurozone Asia Pacific Australia China Japan Indonesia Singapore South Korea

17 217 Compendium Major central banks, interest rates and FX Since 214, the ECB and BoJ have continued to provide market stimulus measures. Currently, the BoJ balance sheet is already bigger than the Fed s. Continued monetary stimulus is expected in Japan, while the Fed looks ready to increase interest rates even though economic growth is not firm yet. Responding to the prospects of higher global inflation next year, the US T-bills yield curve is already in a bearish steepening formation, indicating a market bet on higher Fed rates ahead. The Bloomberg consensus currently is expecting the interest rates of major economies to stay low while FX rates of major economies like the EU, China and Japan are expected to record some modest depreciation against the USD. Major central banks balance sheets, Jan 27 Oct 216 (%) Feb-5 Dec-5 Oct-6 Aug-7 Jun-8 Apr-9 Feb-1 Dec-1 Oct-11 Aug-12 Jun-13 Apr-14 Feb-15 Dec-15 Oct-16-3 The Fed balance sheet to GDP BoJ balance sheet to GDP ECB balance sheet to GDP US T-bills yield curve, November 216 Consensus forecasts on FX and rates, 4Q16 4Q17 (%) (RHS) m 6m 1yr 2yr 3yr 5yr 7yr 1yr 3yr Yield change (bps) 11/28/216 1/31/216 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 Dollar Index Exchange Rate Eurozone China Japan yr govt bond yield United States Eurozone China Japan

18 217 Compendium President Trump: Trade policy and tax changes Donald Trump s victory in the US presidential election is causing market uncertainty, as trade reform and tax cuts are part of his main political agenda. Some commentators in the US have said that protectionism could send the US economy into a recession. On trade policy, Trump has mentioned a 7-point plan, which favors American business interests and could mean increased trade tariffs and a withdrawal from the TPP agreement. We expect a major impact to be felt by the top-ten US trading partners. However, if protectionism really occurs, long-term prospects of GDP growth could be lower than before. On taxation, Trump also has said he would support corporate income tax cuts from 35% to 15%. Calculations by the Citizens for Tax Justice indicate that around a 37% share of a given tax cut would likely benefit the top 1% of the US population. Top ten US trading partners, percentage of total (%) Canada China Mexico Japan Germany South korea UK France Brazil Taiwan Source: trade.gov Donald Trump s 7-point trade plan No. Trade policy 1 US withdrawal from TPP partnership, 2 Hiring the toughest trade negotiator to serve US interests 3 Identifying US labor market unfriendly policies 4 NAFTA renegotiation 5 Take action on China currency manipulation 6 Prevent unfair trade behavior by China 7 Utilize lawful presidential power to remedy trade disputes Source: CNN Impact of potential US corporate tax cuts (%) Lowest 2% 3.6 Source: Citizens for Tax Justice Second 2% Middle 2% Fourth 2% Tax change, % of income Next 15% Next 4% Top 1% Share of tax cut 18

19 217 Compendium Trade agreement: The tale of TPP and RCEP Post the US presidential election, trade agreements are hot topics, with the TPP (Trans-Pacific Partnership) and the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) at the vortex. As the new US president is expected to withdraw from the TPP, effectiveness of this trade agreement is questionable now, in our view. On the other side, RCEP is now seen as the likely route to achieve a free-trade bloc in the Asia-Pacific. We believe the new trade agreement is important to keep the global economy away from the low growth and low-inflation phenomenon. Bridges and road establishments Source: Post Western World TPP vs. RCEP Market access for goods Trade facilitation Services Investment Competition Intellectual property TPP RCEP a. Elimination of tariff barriers with a. Progressive elimination of tariff and significant WTO+ commitments non-tariff barriers on substantially all trade in goods b. Elimination of non-tariff barriers b. Comprehensive and high level of tariff liberalization c. Negotiated market access and trade a. Predictable, transparent, and expeditious customs procedures a. Facilitate trade and investment, enhance transparency in trade and investment b. Strong and common rules of origin b. Facilitate regional and global value chains c. Build on WTO commitments on sanitary and phytosanitary measures (SPS) and technical barriers to trade (TBT) d. Facilitate regional value chains a. Fair, open and transparent markets for services across borders, while preserving right to regulate b. Open trade and investment in financial services, e-commerce, and telecommunications a. Substantially eliminate restrictions and discriminatory measures on trade in services b. Build on commitments made by RCEP members under WTO and ASEAN+1 FTAs c. Negotiate on a negative list basis c. Negotiate on all sectors and modes of supply d. Transparency and efficiency in temporary entry a. Liberal access for investment and a. Liberal, facilitative, competitive legal protection for investors investment regime b. Expeditious, fair, and transparent b. Negotiate on promotion, protection, investor-state dispute settlement facilitation, and liberalization a. Promote competitive business environment, protect consumers, ensure level playing field b. Establishment and maintenance of competition laws and authorities, fairness, transparency, consumer protection, private rights a. Ensure effective and balanced intellectual property rights a. Promote competition, economic efficiency, consumer welfare, curtailing anti-competitive practices b. Recognize differences in capacity in RCEP on competition policy a. Reduce intellectual property related barriers to trade and investment b. Reinforce and extend WTO TRIPS b. Promote cooperation in utilization, protection, and enforcement of intellectual property rights c. Cover trademarks, geographical indications, copyrights, patents, trade secrets, data exclusivity d. Cover intellectual property enforcement, genetic resources, and traditional knowledge Source: Pacific Economic Cooperation Council 19

20 217 Compendium China economy: Stabilization indicated On the China side, there have been signs of stabilization as the PPI has stabilized and nominal GDP has stopped decelerating since 215, rising by 7.4% y-y in 3Q16. This is apparently related to China becoming looser on lending. Improvement has also been seen in the PMI, with the nonmanufacturing PMI rising to 55.6 in October and the manufacturing PMI at We believe the risk for China is likely to come from the external side, as foreign reserves continue to be drained due to capital outflows, as well as a possible negative impact from US protectionism under the new presidency. China nominal GDP growth y-y, January 27 - September 216 (%) Mar-1 Jun-1 Sep-1 Dec-1 Mar-11 Jun-11 Sep-11 Dec-11 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 China foreign reserves, September 212 September 216 China PMI, January 213 October 216 (USDbn) 4,2 4, 3,8 3,6 3,4 3,2 3,993 3,166 (pts) (pts) , Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 China manufacturing PMI (RHS) Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 China non-manufacturing PMI(LHS) 2

21 217 Compendium EU economy: Pricing the Brexit impact Currently, the market is expecting some volatility as Brexit is likely to lower the long-term growth prospects of the EU economy, especially the UK. Interestingly, the UK has continued to grow higher. On the monetary side, the ECB recently stated that it is likely to increase monetary stimulus until June 217 due to the election of Donald Trump. This is fairly understandable, as the EU inflation expectation is still falling, with the 218 number currently 1.5%, dropping from 1.6% in the July survey. Growth comparison in some EU economies, 1Q16 3Q16 (%) UK Germany France Netherlands Greece 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 EU unemployment and labor costs, January October 216 (%) Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 (%) EU inflation expectations, January 216 October 216 (%) Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Labor cost, y-y (LHS) Unemployment rate (RHS) EU 217 inflation expectation EU 218 inflation expectation 21

22 217 Compendium US economy: Inflation up, questionable growth Even though the Fed is planning to increase interest rates, real sector data is pointing to a possible slowdown as the 6-month average for the US non-farm payrolls decelerated in 3Q16 and investment growth has recorded a negative number. On the inflation side, we are seeing inflationary pressure still in the making as average hourly earnings continued to rise by 2.7% y-y in September, the highest since 211. On the commodity side, our sensitivity analysis indicates that assuming the Brent oil price stays at USD5/bbl, US inflation could rise as high as 2.5% in 217. US private consumption and investment, (%) Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar Jun Sep-16 (%) Private consumption growth, y-y Private investment growth, y-y US non-farm payroll and average hourly earnings, Jun 13-Oct 16 (') Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 US non-farm payroll change, m-m (LHS) Average hourly earnings, y-y (RHS) (%) Fed economic expectations, 216F-218F 216F 217F 218F Longer run Change real GDP (%) June projection March projection Unemployement rate (%) June projection March projection PCE inflation (%) June projection March projection Core PCE inflation (%) June projection March projection Fed funds rate (%) June projection March projection

23 217 Compendium Japan: Struggling with deflation Among the major economies, only Japan has not shown a significant increase in inflationary pressure, even though commodity prices have been going up. Recently, Japan also shifted its monetary policy to a yield curve, targeting to make sure longer-term interest rates are not too far from zero. On the trade side, continued monetary stimulus measures are not bringing back export growth. On the debt side, in the past year, the country s foreign debt has only marginally improved, with Malaysia s numbers increasing the most. Japan inflation and core inflation, January 212 October 216 (%) Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct Japan inflation y-y Japan core inflation y-y Japan export and import growth, January 216 October 216 (%) Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Japan export growth, y-y Japan import growth, y-y 1-yr Japanese gov t bond yield, January 216 November 216 (%) Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 23

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25 217 Compendium Domestic economy 25

26 217 Compendium Inflation: Entering a low inflation regime Indonesia s inflation is a supply phenomenon with volatile components taking part in determining inflation. Interestingly, the average core inflation is declining, especially following low commodity prices and muted growth. For the volatile inflation components, improvements are also spotted. Recent government moves to stabilize staple prices and encourage more assertive anti-trust committee (KPPU) should lower inflation prospects. Responding to the situation, Bank Indonesia has already lowered its inflation target to 3.5% for 218, opening room for lower benchmark interest rates in 217, in our view. We are expecting 217 year-end inflation to be at 3.8%. The main risk for inflation next year is the prospect of higher fuel prices. Every 1% increase in the fuel price is likely to lift inflation by.7%, on our estimates. Indonesia s core inflation, January 25 November 216 (%) average: average: average: ytd average: Jan-5 Nov-5 Sep-6 Jul-7 May-8 Mar-9 Jan-1 Nov-1 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13 Mar-14 Jan-15 Nov-15 Sep-16 Source: Statistics Agency 3.1 Indonesia s volatile component, January 25 November 216 (%) average: average: average: ytd average: 7.2 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Source: Statistics Agency BI s inflation target, 25 22F (%) Source: Bank Indonesia 26

27 217 Compendium Inflation: Reasonable price controls from government Food inflation is still the main driver of Indonesia s inflation. The data indicated that prices for spices, fats and oils are the main problems. On the supply side, the government continues to pursue a levelled playing field in the industry. The anti-trust committee (KPPU) has already punished some unfair business practices such as price fixing to maintain supply side and lower the inflation prospect. Currently, the KPPU is engaged in some price-fixing cases, such as cattle imports, Telkom Indihome, Scuter Matic and logistic company cases. Recent case solved by the KPPU No. Case Type Status 1 Chicken cartel Price fixing Fined. 2 Onion price cartel Price fixing 3 Short message service Price fixing Fined. 4 Feedlot cartel Price fixing Fined. 5 EXCL and ISAT Price fixing Ongoing 6 Telkom Indihome Product Ongoing bundling 7 Cattle import Price fixing Ongoing 8 Scuter Matic Price fixing Ongoing 9 Logistic company Price fixing Ongoing Source: Detik, Tempo Main components in food inflation Coeff of variation Max (%, y-y) Min (%, y-y) Average (%, y-y) Spices Fats and oils Beans and nuts Meats Fruits Vegetables Cereals, cassavas Fresh fish Foods Eggs, milk Preserved fish Others Source: CEIC, Bahana Indonesia s food inflation, June 214 November 216 (%) Average = Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep

28 217 Compendium Inflation: IDR and fuel prices In the past 5 years, the main components of volatile inflation were spices at 9.67% y-y average and vegetables at 1.7% y-y. To tackle inflation fluctuations, the government has already conducted price controls policy, especially for basic necessities such as cooking oil and beef. In the last 2 years, core inflation had a strong correlation towards IDR movements, with stronger IDR causing lower core inflation. Historically, the fuel price has been the number one factor for high inflation in the last 1 years. Our sensitivity analysis finds that every 1% increase in fuel price should add.7% m-m higher inflation. Recent higher oil prices could be a threat if the IDR/1USD were to reach 14, and Brent oil price above USD7/bbl. Fuel price and Brent oil price, January 26 November 216 (IDR/liter) 9,2 8,2 7,2 6,2 5,2 4,2 3,2 2,2 4,5 6,5 6,55 3,997 3,966 4,282 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 RON-88 (RHS) Brent oil price (LHS) IDR movements and core inflation, July 214 November 216 (%) (%) Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Core inflation (LHS) IDR/1USD y-y (RHS), Statistics Agency, Bahana Fuel prices shock and inflation, January 27 November 216 (%) Fuel price hike at the time of USD12/bbl oil prices Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Source: CEIC, Bahana Inflation m-m (LHS) Fuel price hike due to fiscal deficit and CAD problem Fuel price change m-m (RHS) 3.8 Fuel price cut due to low oil price (%)

29 217 Compendium Inflation: Infrastructure development to support low inflation Recent news indicated that Jokowi s actions in sea-toll projects already lowered poultry and cement prices in Papua, allowing for less inefficiencies and inflation disparities among nations. October inflation data indicated that most of the eastern cities are experiencing deflation as infrastructure development started to kick in. The Infrastructure performance index comparison shows the relation between better infrastructure development and lower average inflation. Hence, we believe that Jokowi s actions on infrastructure development should help lower inflation prospects in Indonesia. We expect the current ongoing trans-sumatera toll road, light rail transit, SHIA express railway to provide room for lower transportation costs for the economy going forward. Infrastructure performance index and 5yr inflation average Inflation 5yr average (%) The Philippines Indonesia Thailand India Malaysia Taiwan China Thailand Singapore (pts) Infrastructure performance index Eastern Indonesia cities experiencing deflation No. Region City October m-m inflation (%) 1 Bali Singaraja Bali Denpasar Central Kalimantan Sampit Central Kalimantan Palangkaraya Central Sulawesi Palu East Kalimantan Samarinda East Kalimantan Balikpapan East Nusa Tenggara Tanjung Gorontalo Gorontalo Maluku Ternate Papua Jayapura Papua Merauke South Kalimantan Banjarmasin South Sulawesi Watampone South Sulawesi Palopo West Kalimantan Singkawang West Kalimantan Pontianak West Nusa Tenggara Bima West Papua Sorong West Papua Manokwari West Sulawesi Mamuju -.17 Source: CEIC, Bahana Ongoing Indonesia s infrastructure project Source: CEIC, World Bank Source: Economic Affairs Ministry 29

30 217 Compendium Interest rate: rising global yields limiting BI move Since the beginning of 216, Bank Indonesia has continued to pursue monetary policy easing. At this point, the recent increase in US t-bill yields should limit the room for BI to cut interest rates, even though the domestic cycle fully supports the loosening cycle. Lessons from the past, during the 25 US tightening cycle, Indonesia was able to cut interest rates once inflation declined in 26, even though the US Fed rate was still high. At this point, we carefully see some room for Bank Indonesia to resume interest rate cuts in 2Q17 with a total 5bps rate cut in 217. The room for monetary easing is largely dependent on financial market stability post the potential Fed-rate hike and the new US administration announcing their economic policy. BI policy rate and Fed fund rates, July 25 December 28 (%) (%) Jul-5 Dec-5 May-6 Oct-6 Mar-7 Aug-7 Jan-8 Jun-8 Nov-8 BI Rate (LHS) Fed Fund Rate (RHS) Indonesia interest rate, September 215-December 217F (%) 8 8 (bps) 5 4, Bahana Real yield comparison, 21 vs. 216 ytd (%) yr averarge real interest rate : 139bps bps Jan-11 Mar-11 May-11 Jul-11 Sep-11 Nov-11 Jan-12 Mar-12 May-12 Jul-12 Sep-12 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Real interest rate (RHS) 7D reverse repo rate (LHS) BI rate (LHS) Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Real interest rate difference Indonesia real interest rate US real interest rate Jan Apr-16, Bahana estimates, Statistics Indonesia, Bank Indonesia 3

31 217 Compendium IDR: Bold fundamentals meet strong dollar Recently, the phenomena of strong Dollar already made the IDR and other emerging currencies retreat from their high positions. Our model indicates that the rise in US t-bill yields regarding US inflation expectations already limits room for IDR appreciation. At this stage of the cycle, regarding US tightening, we recently toned down our IDR/1USD expectations to 13,5. In a more bullish case, if the Dollar index were to end its rally, the IDR could appreciate to 13, by 217 year-end. Dollar Index and IDR/1USD, October 24 November 216 (pts) Oct-4 Jan-6 Apr-7 Jul-8 Oct-9 Jan-11 Apr-12 Jul-13 Oct-14 Jan-16 (pts) 15, 14, 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, Dollar Index (LHS) USDIDR (RHS), Bahana Covered interest rate parity model and IDR/1USD forecast IDR/1USD forecast, 1Q15 4Q17F (pts) 15, 14, 13, 14,411 13,5 14,28 13,6 12,92 (pts) 14,8 14,3 14, , 11, 1, 13,8 13,3 13,5 13,5 9, 12,8 13 8, Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 12,3 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 IDR/1USD Expected trading band Bull case Bear case Base case, Bahana estimates, Bahana estimates 31

32 217 Compendium IDR: Supported by high FX reserves October FX reserves stood at USD115.bn (September 216: USD115.7bn) supported by FX receipts, as well as the withdrawal of government loans, which outweighed the use of foreign exchange among others for repayment of government external debt and Bank Indonesia FX bills, which matured during the period. In comparison with its peers, Indonesia s FX reserves to short-term debt ratio is still higher than peers at 53.7%, but still below Malaysia s at 85.7%. On the sustainability of foreign payments, declining imports and debt payments have lifted the foreign-reserve-to-imports ratio to 1.4x months. FX Reserves, June 212 Oct 216 (%) Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 Jun-13 Oct-13 Feb-14 Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Source: Bank Indonesia Foreign reserves to short-term debt ratio, Mar 29 Sep 216 (%) Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Malaysia Thailand India Korea Taiwan Indonesia, World Bank Foreign-reserves-to-imports ratio, Jan 29 Oct 216 (month) Average: Jan-9 May-9 Sep-9 Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Source: Bank Indonesia, Statistics Agency, Bahana 32

33 217 Compendium GDP growth: Rate, IDR and commodity We find that the interest rate is a leading indicator of change in GDP growth with an effective transmission period of around 2 quarters. Our findings reveal that every 1% lower interest rate is likely to add.31% to GDP growth in the next two quarters. On the local currency, every 1% IDR appreciation would add around.4% to GDP growth. On commodities, 1% higher coal, CPO and oil prices from current levels would lift Indonesia s potential GDP growth to 5.5% in 217, on our estimates. JIBOR overnight and GDP growth, 3Q12 4Q17F (%) (%) Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q GDP growth (LHS) JIBOR ON, two quarter advanced (RHS), Bahana estimates Change in IDR value and GDP growth, 1Q11 3Q16 GDP growth support from commodity channel (%) (%) Potential growth added for every 1% price increase (%) Price changes -1% -5% % 5% 1% Coal (USD/Mt) CPO (USD/Mt) Oil (USD/bbl) Potential output growth (%) Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 IDR/1USD y-y (RHS) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 GDP growth (LHS) 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q Potential output growth (%) Source: Bahana estimates and forecasts 33

34 217 Compendium GDP growth: Becoming better insulated Indonesia s 3Q16 GDP growth reached 5.2% y-y (2Q16: 5.19%), with consumption expenditure firm at 5.1% y-y (2Q16: 5.6% y-y). GDP growth is likely to recover in 4Q16 due to higher government expenditure levels. Interestingly, this time, Indonesia could grow without support from the trade sector as trade openness dropped to 4.5% in 3Q16. Trade openness is calculated as [(exports + imports)/gdp]. Some risks are coming from possible government spending cuts. However, we remain sanguine with our 5.1% GDP growth target in 216 and 5.3% in 217 as Indonesia s investment is back to its upcycle level on the back of low interest rates and lower ICOR. The main risk for Indonesia s GDP growth would be an unexpected tightening path in the US economy. GDP growth composition, 2Q16-3Q16 (%) (2.97) (2.42) (2.93) (3.87) -6. (6.) -8. Consumption Govt Expenditure Investment Export Import 2Q16 3Q16 Trade openness and GDP growth, 1Q11-3Q16 (%) Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16, Bahana Economic openness (RHS) Annualized GDP growth (LHS) (%) Source: Statistics Agency, Bahana Trend in investments y-y and ICOR, 1Q12-3Q16 (%) (%) Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Annualized investment growth (LHS) Incremental Capital to Output Ratio (Reversed, RHS), Bahana 34

35 217 Compendium PMI: Changing sentiment on the ground Industry wise, the Indonesian economy has continued to record strong growth in financial services, construction and utilities. In 215, pressure from IDR depreciation and weak global demand are pushing PMIs to a weakening trend, especially on continued lower new orders, lower backlog of works, and pressure on input prices. Sentiment is changing in 216 as inflation has eased and IDR stability improved. The sentiment on new orders, moderating price levels and a slight recovery in employment should support a better PMI reading ahead. Interestingly, October PMI dropped mildly as some indicators showed a lower trend. GDP growth by industry, 4Q15-3Q16 Industry 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry & Fisheries Mining and Quarrying Manufacturing Industries Electricity, Gas and Water Supplies Water Supply, Waste Treatment & Recycle Construction Major Trade & Retail Transportation and Communications Supplies of accommodation, F & B Information and Communication Insurance and Financial Service Real Estate Company Services Govt Adm, Defense, Social Security Education Services Health and Social Services Other Services Source: Statistics Agency, Bahana Sentiment affecting Indonesia s PMI, September 215 November 216 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Overall conditions Output New Orders New Export Orders Backlog of Work Output Prices - Input Prices Suppliers Delivery Times Stocks of Finished Goods Quantity of Purchases Stocks of Purchases Employment Scale : Steep drop Mild drop No change Mild increase Steep increase Source: Markit Economics, Bahana 35

36 217 Compendium Trade balance: Supported by lower import prices Until September 216, the import price index dropped faster at % y-y than the export price index, supported by global low inflation and a recovery in commodity prices. For the terms of trade, Indonesia s ratio of export to import price is improving to 32.4% in 2Q16, from 2% in 1Q13, indicating positive improvement in trade balance is likely ahead. Indonesia s number one export commodity is fixed vegetable oils/fats, while its highest import commodity is petroleum products. Indonesia s export and import price index, Jan 212 Oct 216 (%) Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct Import price inflation, y-y Export price inflation, y-y Source: CEIC, Bahana Indonesia s term of trade, Jan 211 Aug 216 (%) Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Source: CEIC, Bahana Indonesia s major export and import product, ytd Export products Ytd (USDmn) %, y-y Import products Ytd (USDmn) %, y-y Fixed Vegetable Oils/fats 8, Petroleum and Petroleum Products 9, Coal, Coke, and Briquettes 7, General Industrial Machinery and Equipments 4, Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles 4, Electrical Machinery and Apparatus 4,7 -.2 Clothing 4, Iron and Steel 3, Gas, Natural and Manufactured 3, Machinery Specialized for Particular Industry 3, Petroleum and Petroleum Products 3, Textile Yarns, Fabrics, and Their Products 3, Road Vehicles 3,155.5 Telecommunication and Reproducers Apparatus 3, Electrical Machinery and Apparatus 3, Road Vehicles 2, Footwear 2, Organic Chemicals 2, Organic Chemicals 2, Plastics In Primary Forms 2, Metalliferous Ores and Metal Scraps 2, Cereals and Cereal Preparations 2, Textile Yarns, Fabrics, and Their Products 2, Power Generating Machine and Equipments 1, Fish, Crustaceans, Molluscs and Their Preparations 2, Manufactured of Metal, Nes 1, Paper, Paperboard, and Manufactured Thereof 2,1-5.3 Miscellaneous Manufactured Articles 1, Crude Rubber 1, Chemical Materials and Its Products, Nes 1, Source: CEIC, Bahana 36

37 217 Compendium Balance of payments & CAD: Flows back Concerns on the balance of payments eased post major central banks having issued dovish tones as well as improvement on Indonesia s CAD from 3.1% of GDP in 214, to only 2.1% of GDP in 215. We expect 216 CAD to be at 2.% of GDP supported by declining import prices and higher commodity prices. Post the drop in financial markets in 3Q15, the financial account has been improving led by portfolio investment, while direct investment has been flat reflecting cautiousness in the real sector. Since the beginning of 216, sentiment on inflows has been positive with USD8.8bn of inflows in the stock and bond markets. In our view, the risk of a sudden capital reversal is low now on high real interest rates, declining domestic USD demand and an improving fiscal-policy mix. Indonesia Current Account Balance, 1Q11 4Q17F (%) Source: CEIC, Bahana estimates (4Q16-4Q17F) Indonesia financial account breakdown, 1Q11-3Q16 (USDbn) Flows to stock market & government bonds, Jan 214 Nov 216 (USDmn) 4, 3, 2, 1, USD8.8bn of inflows to financial market ytd 2-1, , Q11 2Q11 3Q11 4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 Direct investment Portfolio investment -3, Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Capital inflow to stock market Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Capital inflow to bond market Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Source: CEIC, Bahana Source: CEIC, Bahana 37

38 217 Compendium Investment: Higher manufacturing investment Indonesia s 9M16 total FDI is at USD1.6bn, with most of it coming from manufacturing investment. Some recovery in FDI was spotted in 3Q16, with 8.7% y-y growth. The government recently announced regulation on removing some negative investment lists to increase FDI prospect in the future. FDI data, 9M15 vs. 9M16 USDmn 9M15 9M16 y-y change Agriculture, Hunting, and Forestry 3, (8) Fishing 88 (366) (145) Mining and Quarrying 1,4 727 (48) Manufacturing 3,238 4, Electricity,Gas & Water Supply (339) Construction ,456 Wholesale and Retail Trade 885 1, Hotel & Restaurant Transportation, Storage, and Communication 1,581 1,688 7 Financial Intermediation (71) Real Estate, Renting and Business Activities (73) Education (1) () 76 Health and Social Work (76) Social services Others (42) Total 13,177 1,618 (19) Source: CEIC, Investment Board FDI and investment realization growth, 1Q12 3Q16 (%) (%) Change in Indonesia s negative investment list Investment realization growth (LHS) FDI growth (RHS) Source: Investment Board Source: Economic Affairs Ministry 38

39 217 Compendium Infrastructure: Spending improvement The infrastructure budget disbursement from the Ministry of Public Works is higher this year with 1M16 spending at 46.3% of 216 target (1H15: 48.5%) or +16.3% y-y. The share of infrastructure in the state budget has been increasing from 214 (8.4%) to 217F (19.3%), reflecting focus and consistency of the government in boosting infrastructure development over a 5-year period. Several public works tenders with above IDR5bn in investment in 216 include the Karangnonko road reconstruction in Yogyakarta (IDR1.5tn), the Pasar Rumput high-level rental flat construction in Jakarta (IDR1.1tn), dam construction in Way Sekampung and Pringsewu in Lampung (IDR923bn). Ministry of public work budget disbursement, 1M16 (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Realization 216 Realization 215 Source: Statistics Indonesia, Bahana estimates Infrastructure budget share from state budget, F (%) F Source: Ministry of Finance Public works tenders (above IDR5bn), 216 Project name (IDRbn) Region Leuwikeris Dam, Kab.Ciamis & Kab. Tasikmalaya (Package 1) West Java Leuwikeris Dam, Kab.Ciamis & Kab. Tasikmalaya (Package 2) 67.5 West Java Ciawi Dam Construction West Java Pasar Rumput high level rented flat construction 1,13. DKI Jakarta Pasar Minggu high level rented flat construction 7. DKI Jakarta Dam construction in Way Sekampung, Pringsewu (Package 1) Lampung Dam construction in Way Sekampung, Pringsewu (Package 2) Lampung Dam construction in Ladongi, Kolaka Timur Southeast Sulawesi Napun Gete dam construction in Sikka 88.8 NTT Karangnongko road reconstruction 1,55. D.I. Yogyakarta Source: Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing 39

40 217 Compendium Infrastructure: Accelerating the growth The government is paying attention to accelerate infrastructure development, with energy, water, transportation and the telecommunication sectors being integral parts of the plan. Component wise, disappointment came from the oil & gas income tax, which dropped 33.2% y-y and only achieved 58.5% of 215 target. VAT fell 3.3% while property taxes dropped 6.4%. As a consequence, the government is required to either slow down the rate of spending, or increase tax collection to maintain a fiscal deficit below 3%. Energy and water sector Source: Economic Affairs Ministry Transportation and telecommunication sector Projects timeline, Sumatra Toll Road West Semarang drinking National Capital Integrated Coastal Development Bitung international hub seaport (First Section) water supply system Light Rail Transit South Sumatra Coal power plant (Indramayu) Light Rail Transit Bogor, Depok, Bekasi Coal power plant (S. Sumatra) Makassar-Parepare railway Central-West Java transmission line Palapa ring High Volta ge Direct Current-HDVC Manado-Bitung toll road (S. Sumatra, Lampung, Banten, West Java) Serang-Panimbang toll road Water power plant Balikpapan-Samarinda toll road Central Java power plant (Batang) MRT Ja ka rta Source: Economic Affairs Ministry Kuala Tanjung int l hub seaport Refinery Development Master Plan (RDMP) Oil refinery (Bontang) Sumatra transmission line Cikarang-Bekasi-Sea Java waterways Oil refinery (Tuban) Jakarta sewage system East Kalimantan railway Jakarta a irport express railway Source: Economic Affairs Ministry 4

41 217 Compendium 216 infrastructure spending progress Spending on infrastructure continued in 216 with 195MW of power plants becoming fully operational, the completion of 268km of new toll roads, the addition of 488km of railways and 56 seaports. Specifically, 216 infrastructure projects focus on toll roads, an integrated water supply system, the Palapa ring system, and the Bontang oil-refinery project. Budget wise, 1M16 disbursement of Ministry of Public Works already reached IDR48.2tn (1M15: IDR57.6tn). Lower October realization was due to the spending cuts effected prior to the tax amnesty receipts. We expect the spending to pick-up by the end of the year. Current progress of infrastructure development Sector 219 target Current development Electricity sector 35 GW 195 MW fully operational 8,215 MW under construction 9,79 MW Power Purchase Agreement Toll Roads 1, km 268 km Railways 3,258 km 488 km Seaports Irrigation 3mn Ha 834k Ha Dam Airports 15 5 Source: Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing Bridges and road establishments Projects Integrated water supply system Central Java steam power plant Palapa ring system Balikpapan-Samarinda toll-road Serang-Panimbang toll-road Bontang oil refinery Source: Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing Current progress Agreement signed Financial closing reached Agreement signed Agreement signed Location approved Financing scheme discussion Ministry of public works disbursement, 1M16 (IDR tn) Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Realization 216 Realization 215 Source: Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing 41

42 217 Compendium 217 infrastructure spending plan In 217, government is planning to spend IDR337tn on infrastructure, while adopting a new strategy to increase the efficiency. Next year, the government is eying to build 341km of new toll roads, 1,687km of new railways and 13 seaports. On funding sources, government expects private sector support of around IDR154tn next year. 217 infrastructure spending strategy No. Initiative 1 Encouraging govt & company partnership (KPBU) on infra. projects 2 Providing infrastructure financing alternatives 3 Encouraging SOE s to form alliances with private companies 4 Easing regulations in infrastructure sector 5 Increasing local government portion in infrastructure spending 6 Advancing land certification mechanism 7 Improving infrastructure-related human resources Source: Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing 217 infrastructure target 217 infrastructure funding sources Sector 217 target Toll road 341km of new toll roads IDR154tn IDR124tn Railways Airports Seaports Power plant Dam Fibre optic Source: Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing 1,687km of new railways 2 new airports Build and rehabilitate 13 seaports 5,823 MW of new power plant 39 new dams 5,832km of fibre optic systems 3.8% 24.8% 26.8% 17.% IDR2.4tn 22.7% IDR134tn IDR85tn State budget Local govt budget SOE Regional SOE Private Source: Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing 42

43 217 Compendium Fiscal side: Tax amnesty Until 23 October 216, tax amnesty penalties received by the government were IDR94.9tn with IDR3,951tn of declared/repatriated assets. This result leads us to expect IDR13tn of penalty receipts by the end of the program. Based on our market research, we believe the government will conduct some policy shock near the end of the tax amnesty period. Ratio wise, the declared assets-to-gdp ratio in Indonesia s tax amnesty is at IDR22.4% currently, far higher than other tax amnesty programs around the globe. Tax amnesty result, 28 November 216 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Total Penalty Entity penalty - SMEs Entity penalty - Non-SMEs , ,475 Individual penalty - SMEs , ,738 Individual penalty - Non-SMEs 7 2,398 77, ,484 Total penalty received 85 3,13 9, ,933 Assets Repatriated funds 41 2, , , ,34 Declared funds - domestic 1,79 72,736 2,587,831 82,868 78,562 2,823,77 Declared funds - overseas 91 15, ,569 6,87 7, ,153 Total assets 1,212 9,996 3,68,82 9,22 88,17 3,951,264 Percentage (%) Entity penalty - SMEs Entity penalty - Non-SMEs Individual penalty - SMEs Individual penalty - Non-SMEs Total penalty received Repatriated funds Declared funds - domestic Declared funds - overseas Total repatriated/declared funds Source: Tax office, Bahana Tax amnesty tracker Declared assets-to-gdp ratio comparison of several TA programs (IDRtn) 6, (%) , 4, 3, , 2, 1, 1-Sep 8-Sep 15-Sep 22-Sep 29-Sep 6-Oct 13-Oct 2-Oct 27-Oct 3-Nov 1-Nov 17-Nov 24-Nov Total declared/repatriated asset old model 13tn model 1tn model Indonesia Ireland Chili South Africa Italy Spain India Australia Source: Ministry of Finance, Bahana estimates Source: Ministry of Finance, Bahana estimates 43

44 Tax amnesty: Funds for infrastructure projects For infrastructure projects, the government plans to allocate IDR93.73tn from tax amnesty funds. The proceeds from the tax-amnesty scheme would focus on the development of water resource infrastructure, bridges, roads and drainage systems. We believe these projects are expected to improve the efficiency of Indonesia s economy going forward. Water resources infrastructure Irrigation system: IDR2.91tn 217 Compendium Conservation: IDR5.48tn Dam management: IDR1.84tn Water procurement: IDR.22tn Source: Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing Bridges and road establishments Drainage, drinking-water procurement system, and toll roads Roads in boundaries: IDR12.7tn Trans-Papua: IDR5.33tn Southern Java Beach roads: IDR2.15tn Landbank procurement: IDR27.39tn South Java flyover: IDR.22tn National priority drinking water (SPAM) establishment: IDR1.24tn Regional drinking water system development: IDR.8tn Trans Sumatera tollroad: IDR1.5tn Source: Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing Source: Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing 44

45 217 Compendium Fiscal side: Higher tax buoyancy In , Indonesia s tax-to-gdp ratio ranged between %, averaging 11.2%, while the non-o&g tax-to-gdp ratio was between %, with an average of 4.5%. Our calculation suggests Indonesia s non-oil and gas tax buoyancy in the period was at 1.2. With expectations of declared/repatriated assets at IDR5,7tn, we expect non-oil and gas tax buoyancy to be slightly higher at 1.4. We estimate that the tax amnesty would result in IDR57tn higher non-oil and gas tax revenues in 217, with IDR95tn in total revenue differences in the next 1 years. Indonesia tax to GDP ratio, (%) Non O&G tax to GDP ratio Tax to GDP ratio Source: Ministry of Finance, Bahana Non-oil and gas tax buoyancy calculation, Non-oil and gas tax buoyancy, F Nat. Logarithm of non O&G tax revenue (pts) 6.6 y = 1.216x Natural logarithm of nominal GDP (IDRtn) 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, Tax buoyancy: 1.2 Tax buoyancy: 1.4 (IDRtn) , , F 217F 218F 219F 22F 221F 222F 223F 224F 225F 226F Revenue gap (RHS) Non O&G tax without tax amnesty (LHS) Non O&G tax with tax amnesty (LHS) Source: Ministry of Finance, Bahana Source: Ministry of Finance, Bahana estimates 45

46 217 Compendium Fiscal side: Likely improvement ahead On fiscal reform, the MoF has already stated their commitment in doing tax intensification and broadening the tax base. E-ID data shows that there are 173.5m prospective taxpayers, out of which only 27m currently have tax IDs. Assuming a similar level of compliance and up to 37m new tax IDs in 22, we expect the total government spending capacity will be IDR662.3tn higher, which would support government expenditure spending ahead. Potential revenue increase on tax reformation With tax reformation Items (IDRtn) Non O&G income tax Other revenue 1, Total govt revenue 1,55.5 1,58. 1, , ,779. 1, ,18.4 Personal Material Capex Interest Regional transfers Others Total govt spending 1,777 1,87 1, , , ,36.1 2,566.7 Fiscal deficit % of GDP Prospective number of new tax payers Without tax reformation Items (IDRtn) Non O&G income tax Other revenue 1, ,4.1 1,144.2 Total govt revenue 1,55.5 1,58. 1, ,57.6 1, , , mn 74.5mn unregistered in E-KTP children registered in E-KTP Purposes of e-id Single ID number Avoid KTP duplication Avoid tax evaders and corruption Ease of passport issuance in remote areas Avoid terrorism Personal Material Capex Interest Regional transfers Others Total govt spending 1,777 1, Fiscal deficit % of GDP -2.1% -2.6% -2.7% -2.7% -2.7% -2.7% -2.7% Differences Source: Domestic Affairs Ministry Source: CEIC, Bahana estimates (216-2) 46

47 217 Compendium Fiscal side: 217 state budget is realistic In the 217 proposed state budget, the government targets tax revenue of IDR1,495tn (-2.8% y-y), with lower non-tax revenues. We see this as achievable given it is equal to 11.1% of GDP, lower than the 216 target at 12.3% of GDP. In , Indonesia could achieve this amount of tax ratio. Post the tax amnesty, increasing the tax base is the new challenge for the government. Tax target comparison, Source: Ministry of Finance, Bahana State budget assumptions, 216 vs. 217 Descriptions (in IDR tn) 216 revised budget 217 budget % changes STATE REVENUE 1, ,75.3 (2.) I. DOMESTIC REVENUE 1, ,748.9 (2.) 1. Tax revenue 1, ,498.8 (2.6) a. Domestic revenue 1,53.3 1,464.8 (2.6) 1) Income tax (8.) - Oil and gas (1.2) - Non-oil and gas (8.3) 2) Value added tax ) Land and building tax (2.3) 4) Customs ) Others b. International tax (5.) 1) Import duties ) Non-oil and gas (86.4) 2. Non-tax revenue a. Natural resources tax (3.9) 1) Oil and gas natural resources (7.3) 2) Non-oil and gas natural resources b. SOEs earnings c. Others d. BLUs II. GRANTS (29.1) EXPENDITURES 2,82.9 2,8.5 (.1) I. DOMESTIC EXPENDITURES 1,36.7 1, Ministries expenditures (.5) 2. Non-ministries expenditures a. Interest payments b. Subsidies (1.) 1) Energy (18.1) 2) Non-energy (.8) c. Grants ,9.2 II. TRANSFER TO REGION AND VILLAGE FUNDS (1.5) 1. Transfer to region (3.3) a. Equalization funds (4.) 1) General transfer funds a) Sharing (14.9) b) General allocation ) Special transfer funds (17.8) b. Incentives c. Autonomy Village funds PRIMARY BALANCES (15.5) (19.) 3.3 BUDGET SURPLUS (DEFICIT) (296.7) (33.2) 11.3 % of GDP (2.4) (2.4) 2.6 FUNDING I. DEBT PAYMENT II. INVESTMENT FUNDING (94.) (47.5) (49.5) III. GRANT OF LOANS.5 (6.4) (1,49.5) IV. GUARANTEE (.7) (.9) 41.3 V. OTHERS (98.4) Source: Ministry of Finance 47

48 217 Compendium Subsidies: More allocation to fertilizer President Jokowi already has bold initiatives, planning to cut subsidies from IDR392tn in 214 to only IDR16tn in 217, especially on energy. As a percentage of government spending, subsidies fell to 7.7% of total spending in 217, vs. 23.4% in 214. For energy, the government already relieved the subsidy on RON-88 since 215, allowing for better government spending allocation. Going ahead, a higher oil price is less dangerous for the state budget as the government already set the price based on global prices. Government is also planning to cut electricity subsidies in 217. On the productivity front, the government continues to increase nonenergy subsidies, especially for fertilizer in order to raise farmer productivity. Indonesia subsidies, F (IDRtn) (%) F 217F Government subsidies (LHS) Subsidy as percentage of spending (RHS) Source: Ministry of Finance Subsidized fuel volumes, (mn kl) Source: Ministry of Finance RON88 Diesel Kerosene Non-energy subsidies, 21-21F (IDRtn) F 217F Food Fertilizer Project Loan Tax Others Source: Ministry of Finance 48

49 217 Compendium Government bonds: IDR384tn of new debt in 217 In 217, government is planning to issue IDR384.7tn of new debt, to finance the budget deficit at IDR33.2tn. The low level of Indonesia s external debt is still manageable, in our view. On a gross basis, the number of government bond issuance is at IDR385tn. We foresee the number of government bond issuances remaining manageable in 217. Allocation of budget Ministries and agencies (M&A) budget IDR763.6tn Non M&A budget IDR551.9tn Regional transfer IDR75.tn Villages budget IDR6.tn Central government budget IDR1,315.5tn 63% Regional transfer and villages budget IDR765.tn 37% Spending IDR2,8.5tn Revenue IDR1,75.3tn Deficit IDR33.2tn Tax revenue IDR1,498.9tn 86% Non-tax revenue IDR25.tn 2.41% of GDP Income tax IDR787.7tn VAT IDR493.9tn Excise tax IDR157.2tn Others IDR6.7tn Oil&gas IDR87tn Others IDR163tn Debt IDR384.7tn Non Debt (IDR54.5tn) Source: Ministry of Finance, Bahana Bond auction results SBNs Maturity Total Auction average Total Auction average 3 Months 11,7, 975, 18,, 1,636,364 6 Months 12,82, 1,427,778 3,9, 1,681,667 1 year 27,85, 1,843,333 26,4, 1,511,763 5 years 5,3, 1,353,333 54,9, 1,431,25 1 years 73,4, 4,32,588 76,9, 4,86,25 15 years 34,, 2,65, 64,2, 3,566,667 2 years 39,3, 1,275, 24,35, 2,371,675 3 years 5,, 1,25, 7,67, 1,917,5 Total 254,37, 32,15, SBSNs Tenor Total Auction average Total Auction average 6 months 14,295, 68,714 16,985, 88,81 2 years 26,435, 1,846,667 32,745, 2,641,389 5 years 9,35, 51,944 24,231, 1,533,667 7 years - - 1,545, 585, years - - 2,315, 967,381 2 years 6,525, 652,5 - - Total 56,29, 14,821, Source: Ministry of Finance, Bahana Indonesia 216 bond issuance Revised Widening budget realization % realization budget 216 deficit 2.7% (as nov 23) to revised budget Government securities net 364,866,887 47,885,535 48,898, % Government securities maturing in 216 and buyback 246,535, ,472,55 236,755, % Issuance need for ,42, ,358,86 645,653, % Government Debt Securities (GDS) 465,755,157 Domestic GDS 356,716,437 Coupon GDS 247,97, Convention T-Bills 53,24, Private placement 31,895,977 Retail bonds 23,61,46 International GDS 19,38,72 USD GMTN 48,643, Euro GMTN 44,975,61 Samurai bonds 12,76,91 Domestic USD bonds 2,659,2 Government Islamic Debt Securities (GIDS) 179,899,452 Domestic Government Islamic Debt Securities 146,491,952 IFR/PBS/T-Bills Sukuk (Islamic bond) 19,356,83 Retail Sukuk 34,85,122 Private placement 3,5, Global Sukuk 33,47,5 Source: Ministry of Finance, Bahana 49

50 217 Compendium Fiscal side: Rating upgrade ahead Indonesia s position currently is only one notch below S&P s investment grade with a BB+ rating, with a positive outlook. Rating improvement should add significant capital inflows and provide room for lower domestic interest rate spreads against major economies. In last year s review, S&P expressed their concern on Indonesia s tax collection, relatively weak economic growth, fiscal reform and low commodity prices. Their concern should be eased with the recent successful tax amnesty and higher commodity prices. The next step for Indonesia to sustain its path to an investment grade involves taxation and fiscal reform. Latest BRICS-MINT countries sovereign ratings Country Name Moody's S&P Fitch Date Rating Outlook Date Rating Outlook Date Rating Outlook China Apr-13 Aa3 STABLE Dec-1 AA- STABLE Oct-13 A+ STABLE Mexico Feb-14 A3 STABLE Dec-13 A STABLE May-13 A- STABLE South Africa Nov-14 Baa2 STABLE Jun-14 BBB+ STABLE Jun-14 BBB+ NEG Brazil Sep-14 Baa2 NEG Mar-14 BBB+ STABLE Apr-15 BBB NEG India Apr-15 Baa3 POS Sep-14 BBB- STABLE Jun-13 BBB- STABLE Indonesia Jan-16 Baa3 STABLE May-15 BB+ POS Jan-12 BBB- STABLE Turkey Apr-14 Baa3 NEG May-15 BBB- NEG Nov-12 BBB STABLE Russia Feb-15 Ba1 NEG Jan-15 BBB- NEG Jan-15 BBB- NEG Nigeria Nov-12 STABLE Mar-15 B+ STABLE Mar-15 BB NEG, Bahana Tax target comparison, Indonesia s S&P rating, Political condition Economic condition External condition Fiscal condition Monetary condition Source: Ministry of Finance, Bahana Lower government policy Higher government policy effectiveness effectiveness Growth prospects lower, GDP Growth prospects higher, GDP per capital lower, per capita higher, investment consumption dominate the and government spending economy improved Trade balance significantly Trade balance slightly improved on commodity improved on lower import prices Tax revenue low, unrealistic target, low infrastructure spending realization Successful tax amnesty, better fiscal credibility under new MoF, clear plan on tax reformation Inflation above target, FX Inflation manageably low and volatility high, monetary policy fall below BI target, currency transmission weak stabilized (Rating) BBB Investment grade BBB- BB+ B Non-investment grade B+ B B- CCC+ SD 1Q1992 3Q1993 1Q1995 3Q1996 1Q1998 3Q1999 1Q21 3Q22 1Q24 3Q25 1Q27 3Q28 1Q21 3Q211 1Q213 3Q214 1Q216, Bahana This report uses credit ratings assigned by Moody s, Standard & Poor s and Fitch, which are not registered with Japan s Financial Services Agency pursuant to Article 66, Paragraph 27 of the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act. Investors should read the related attachment for information on ratings assigned by unregistered rating agencies. 5

51 217 Compendium Labor market: Manageable minimum wage increases On a ytd basis, layoffs are still high, and stand at 16k. The textile sector contributed the biggest layoffs, with 32% of total layoffs. However, through improvement and development, the unemployment rate has decreased by 1.4%. In the Jokowi era, the unemployment rate is down by.2pp, from 5.81% to 5.61%. We believe that the unemployment rate will decrease more as economic growth improves. The Ministry of Manpower has regulated to raise provincial minimum wages by up to 8.25%, with a formula of 3.7% inflation % GDP. The biggest increase in wages should come from Aceh (2.%), North Maluku (17.5%), and East Nusa Tenggara (15.8%), with most of the provinces following the Manpower Ministry s term. Unemployment rate, February 211 August 216 (%) Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 Source: Statistics Agency, Bahana Lay-offs, 216 ytd No Company Sector Status Number of workers 1 Panasonic (Pasuruan) Manufacture Laid off 8 2 Toshiba Manufacture Laid off Shamoin Manufacture Laid off 1,166 4 Starlink Manufacture Laid off Philips Indonesia (Sidoarjo) Manufacture Laid off 8 6 Sunstar Engineering Indonesia Manufacture Laid off Osung Manufacture Laid off Ford Motor Indonesia Automotive Laid off 2, 9 General Motors Indonesia Automotive Laid off 5 1 Krama Yudha Ratu Motor Automotive Laid off 2 11 United Tractors Coal Laid off 1,5 12 Chevron Oil & gas Laid off Jaba Garmindo Textile Laid off 4,7 14 Sandoz Indonesia Pharmaceutical Laid off 2 15 Novartis Pharmaceutical Laid off 5 16 Bank Banten Bank Laid off 1,565 Total 16,455 Source: Detik, Bahana Regional minimum wage, No Region % change 1 Aceh 2,118,5 2,542, North Sumatra 1,811,875 1,961, West Sumatra 1,8,725 1,949, Lampung 1,763, 1,98, Jambi 1,96,65 2,63, Riau 2,95, 2,266, Riau Islands 2,178,71 2,358, South Sumatra 2,26, 2,388, Bangka Belitung 2,341,5 2,534, Bengkulu 1,65, 1,73, Banten 1,784, 1,931, Jakarta 3,1, 3,355, Yogyakarta 1,237,7 1,337, East Java 1,237,49 1,388, Central Java 1,265, 1,367, West Java 1,312,355 1,42, Bali 1,87,6 1,956, West Nusa Tenggara 1,482,95 1,631, East Nusa Tenggara 1,425, 1,65, West Kalimantan 1,739,4 1,882, South Kalimantan 2,85,5 2,258, Central Kalimantan 2,57,528 2,222, East Kalimantan 2,161,253 2,339, North Kalimantan 2,175,34 2,358, South Sulawesi 2,25, 2,5, Central Sulawesi 1,67, 1,87, North Sulawesi 2,4, 2,598, South East Sulawesi 1,85, 2,2, Gorontalo 1,875, 2,3, West Sulawesi 1,864, 2,17, Maluku 1,775, 1,925, North Maluku 1,681,266 1,975, Papua 2,435, 2,663, West Papua 2,237, 2,416, Average 1,93,967 2,8, Source: Manpower Ministry, Bahana 51

52 217 Compendium Economic forecasts 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16F 1Q17F 2Q17F 3Q17F 4Q17F F 217F 218F Real sectors GDP growth (% y-y) Private spending (%y-y) Investment (%y-y) Gov t spending (%y-y) Total exports (%y-y) Total imports (%y-y) FX and interest rate 7D reverse repo rate (%) FASBI (%) Lending facility (%) yr ID govt bond yield (%) JIBOR 1M IDR/1USD (end of period) 13,26 13,162 13,3 13,5 13,4 13,2 13,6 13,5 13,788 13,5 13,5 13,5 IDR/1USD (Average) 13,521 13,315 13,32 13,3 13,3 13,3 13,6 13,5 13,494 13,364 13,425 13,5 Prices & commodities Headline inflation (% y-y) Core inflation (% y-y) Brent oil price (USD/barrel) Regular fuel price (IDR/Liter) 6,45 6,45 6,45 6,45 6,45 6,45 6,45 6,45 7,4 6,45 6,45 6,45 External balance CA balance (% of GDP) Fiscal deficit (% of GDP) Others GDP per capita (USD) ,657 Population (Mn) Source: CEIC, Bloomberg, Bahana forecasts 52

53 217 Compendium LOCAL POLITICS 53

54 217 Compendium Jokowi s popularity: Down, but not out Since he became President in October 214, the satisfaction level for Jokowi has dropped from 67% to 61%, brought down by the Ahok blasphemy case. However, we believe this is still a high level, particularly when compared with the low seen back in 1H15 of c.4%. In the parliament, Golkar s alliance with the Great Indonesia coalition provides Jokowi with 69% of total House seats, a clear majority. We understand that Jokowi still has solid support from Retired General Luhut Panjaitan, allowing him to remain in the driver s seat politically. Moreover, Jokowi s nomination of Tito Karnavian, one of the youngest Police Chiefs in history, should bode well for national security. Finally, Jokowi s improving relationship with Megawati, chairperson of PDI-P with significant political influence, should also help to legitimize his political power. Other important support is from Wiranto and Surya Paloh, both with considerable clout politically. House s current coalition groupings, by seat and party Jokowi s satisfaction levels, January 215 October 216 Source: SMRC, LSI Jokowi s team of political backup support KMP's coalition 2% SBY's camp 11% KIH's coalition 69% PAN 9% Hanura 3% Nasdem 6% PPP 7% PKB 8% Gerindra 13% PKS 7% Demokrat 11% Luhut Panjaitan Minister of Maritime Affairs President Joko Widodo Tito Karnavian Police Chief Golkar 16% PDIP 2% Wiranto Chief of Hanura party Megawati Soekarno Putri Chief of PDI-P party Surya Paloh Chief of Nasdem party Source: The House of Representative, Bahana Source: Bahana 54

55 217 Compendium Jokowi: Currently strong in the Parliament Ade Komarudin, the second Speaker of the House (DPR) during the Jokowi s regime, a Golkar member, was removed from his post. Taking over his position is Setya Novanto, who was the original Speaker of the House, returning following his leave of absence due to his alleged involvement in the Freeport scandal. According to the House s Court of Honor Council (MKD), the reason for Ade s removal was due to 2 violations: Slowing the discussion process on (1) state-owned capital injection and (2) tobacco law, which is profarmers and cigarette companies. This political move suggests that Jokowi is currently very much in control of the parliament, and those who do not support his goals and objectives would be removed. Court of Honor Council (MKD): Authority and members Violation Sanction No law offenses Light sanction Personal ethics violation Written / verbal warning <4% meeting attendance in 1 session period Do law offenses Medium sanction Publicly known ethics violation Removed from any major position Repeatedly has meeting attendance of less than 4% in the parliament in 1 session period after receiving light sanction Commit criminal offenses and sentenced above 5 year Commit any violation of parliament act Permanently unable to serve as parliament member No longer eligible as parliament member Absent from parliament duties for 3 months Heavy sanction Temporary (3 months) or totally removed from parliament membership Source: The House, Bahana No MKD s roles and duties 1 Monitoring the framework of preventive functions of the behavior of members 2 Investigating and verifying member violation 3 Holding a hearing meeting to receive actions and / or events to decide members violations or offenses 4 Receiving letters from law officials for investigations of members who allegedly break laws or rules 5 Requesting for information from authorized law officials for the investigation of members who allegedly break laws or rules 6 Asking members of parliament for other members who may have broken laws or rules 7 Accompanying law officials to search for evidence in the event members commit crimes or violations Source: The House, Bahana Out: Ade Komarudin In: Setya Novanto Source: Republika Details on SoE capital injection and tobacco law No Company 216 (in IDRbn) 217 (in IDRbn) 1 Penjaminan Infrastruktur Indonesia 1, 1, 2 Sarana Multigriya Finansial 1, 1, 3 Sarana Multi Infrastruktur 4,16 2, 4 Hutama Karya 3, - 5 Perum Bulog 2, - 6 Pertani 5-7 Perikanan Nusantara 29-8 Rajawali Nusantara Indonesia Angkasa Pura II 2, - 1 Pelayaran Nasional Indonesia Barata Indonesia 5-12 Wijaya Karya (WIKA IJ) 4, - 13 Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP IJ) 2,25-14 Perum Perumnas Industri Kereta Api 1, - 16 Pelindo III 1, - 17 Krakatau Steel (KRAS IJ) 1,5-18 Bahana Pembinaan Usaha Indonesia Perusahaan Perdagangan Indonesia 1, - 2 PLN 23,56-21 Asuransi Kredit Indonesia 5-22 Perum Jamkrindo 5-23 Amarta Karya Jasa Marga (JSMR IJ) 1,25-25 Lembaga Pembiayaan Ekspor Indonesia 4, 3,2 26 Perkebunan Nusantara I Perkebunan Nusantara VIII National Health Insurance (BPJS Kesehatan) 6,828 - TOTAL 63,41 7,2 Source: MoF, The House Article 8 1) Determination of space and tobacco planting areas by the government and / or the local government based on the proposal of tobacco farmers, industry needs, and export Article 14 Market players should report projected amount and quality of tobacco needed to the government and / or regional government with no later than 1 year lead time to tobacco processing Article 16 1) Local governments have authori es to set basic prices of tobacco at farmer levelswhich is in strategic commodity area. 2) The base price of tobacco referred to in paragraph (1) should be calculated based on the variable costs, working time and projected profit forecasts of farmers in 1 planting season Article 2 Business communities in the country are required to use domestic tobacco at least 8% and imported tobacco at most 2% of the total production capacity of tobacco products Article 29 1) The government sets a pricing policy and excise on tobacco and tobacco imports 2) Pricing and excise of imported tobacco products and imported tobacco as referred to paragraph (1), the use of imported tobacco is determined at least 3 times greater than prices and excise of tobacco products using domestic tobacco 55

56 217 Compendium Simultaneous regional elections: A double edged sword Indonesia is in the midst of simultaneous regional elections divided into 7 phases from by the Election Committee (KPU). While campaign period has started, the actual voting for Election phase 2 will be on Wednesday, 15 February 217 at 11 places in 7 provinces, 18 cities and 76 regencies. Without majority wins of at least 5%+1, the top two candidates of each race must go for second-round elections to be held on 19 April. These regional elections are good for domestic consumption due to sizeable election spending. In Jakarta, there are 3 Jakarta Cards already issued by the Jokowi-Ahok administration. The Smart Jakarta Card has already been implemented for students and used in RALS stores. Jakarta One Card, issued in June 216, was the latest card given to the public to facilitate e-money system in Jakarta. Unfortunately, however, the Jakarta governor election, due to its importance, has resulted in political instability on the ground. Some regional election places Regional Election Province City Regency Regency Regency Regency Aceh Banda Aceh - Aceh Aceh Singkil - Aceh Muaro Jambi Flores Timur - East Nusa Tenggara Seram Bagian Barat - Maluku Bangka Belitung Lhokseumawe - Aceh Bireun - Aceh Sarolangun - Jambi Lembata - East Nusa Tenggara Buru - Maluku DKI Jakarta Langsa - Aceh Aceh Barat Daya Tebo - Jambi Landak - West Kalimantan West Southeast Maluku Banten Sabang - Aceh Aceh Tenggara Musi Banyuasin - South Sumatra Barito Selatan - Central Central Maluku Kalimantan Gorontalo Tebing Tinggi - North Sumatra Gayo Lues - Aceh Bengkulu Tengah Kotawaringin Barat - Central Kalimantan Morotai Island - North Maluku West Sulawesi Payakumbuh - West Sumatra Aceh Barat - Aceh Tulang Bawang Barat - Lampung Hulu Sungai Utara - South Kalimantan Halmahera Tengah - North Maluku West Papua Pekanbaru - Riau Nagan Raya - Aceh Mesuji - Lampung Barito Kuala - South Kalimantan Tambrauw - West Papua Cimahi - West Java Aceh Tengah Lampung Barat Banggai Islands- Central Sulawesi Maybrat- West Papua Tasikmalaya - West Java Aceh Tamiang Tulang Bawang - Lampung Buol - Central Sulawesi Sorong - West Papua Singkawang - Bener Meriah - West Kalimantan Aceh Source: Election Committee, Bahana Jepara - Central Java Kolaka Utara - Southeast Sulawesi Tolikara - Papua Election schedule Phase Campaign period Election 1 Aug-Dec 15 9-Dec-15 2 a. 26 Oct Feb 17 Total # of elections 269; 9 provinces (governors), 36 cities (mayors) and 224 regencies (regents) 11 places; 7 provinces (governors), 18 cities 15-Feb-17 (mayors) and 76 regencies (regents) 2 b. 4 Mar Apr Apr-17 2 nd round 3 Feb-Jun 218* June-18 TBC 4 Mar-July 22* 22 TBC 5 TBC 222 TBC 6 TBC 223 TBC 7 TBC 227 TBC Source: Election Committee Jakarta s Cards Smart Jakarta Card > Launched in December 212 (Jokowi era) > To fund poor students, in elementary - high school > Coverage of funding: Tuition fees, books, stationery, uniforms, bags, nutrition, glasses and hearing aids > Public school student funds: IDR21k (elementary), IDR26k (junior high school), IDR375k (high school) > Private school student funds: IDR13k (elementary), IDR17k (junior high school), IDR29k (high school) > Coorporated with Bank DKI Source: Bahana, various sources Healthy Jakarta Card > Launched in November 212 (Jokowi era) > To fund free health services for Jakarta residents > Coverage of funding: Inpatient and outpatient services in government hospitals and appointed private hospitals > Available at 32 goverment and 16 private hospitals > Used for treatment, as well as prevention > Coorporated with Bank DKI Jakarta One Card > Launched in June 216 (Ahok era) > To establish cashless society and smart city development > Not distributed yet > Can be used to purchase Transjakarta ticket, healthcare services, flat rents, retribution, tax services, parking charges and also SME loans. > Coorporated with Bank DKI 56

57 217 Compendium Jakarta governor election: An important, 3-way heated race Jakarta s governor election, with some 12.7mn voters, is being contested in a heated three-way race, and could be a precursor of what will unfold in 219, in our view. Note that Jakarta accounts for around 2% of Indonesia s GDP. There are three political groupings within the Jakarta governor race: (1) Agus Yudyohono, SBY s son, and Sylviana are supported by the Democratic Party, PPP, PKB and PAN political parties; (2) Ahok and Djarot supported by PDIP, Golkar, Nasdem, and Hanura; and (3) Anies and Sandiaga are backed by Gerindra and PKS political parties. According to recent polls, Basuki Purnama (Ahok) and Djarot Hidayat poll has decreased from no. 1 pre-blasphemy case to no. 2 postblasphemy case. If Agus, SBY s son were to be the next Jakarta Governor, It is possible that he may follow in the previous foot step of Jokowi, and run in the 219 Presidential elections. Background of the candidates No Candidate / age Background 1 Agus Harimurti Army Mayor (216) Yudhoyono / 38 Sylviana Murni / 58 Former Governor Deputy of Tourism, Central Jakarta Mayor (21) 2 Ahok / 5 Governor of Jakarta, Vice Governor of Jakarta (214) Djarot Saiful Vice Governor of Jakarta, Blitar Mayor Hidayat / 54 (21) 3 Anies Baswedan / 47 Former Minister of Education, Founder of Indonesia Mengajar (an Indonesia's NGO in education) Sandiaga Uno / 47 Former Director of SRTG IJ, Director of ADRO (215) Source: Bahana, various sources Jakarta governor pairings: A precursor of 219 Presidential race SBY camp #1 #2 Agus Yudhoyono (38) - Sylviana Murni (58) Source: Election Committee, Bahana #3 Prabowo camp Anies Baswedan (47) - Sandiaga Uno (47) Jokowi camp Ahok (5) - Djarot Hidayat (54) Polling on Jakarta governor candidates, Oct Nov 216 (%) Agus Yudhoyono - Sylviana Murni Source: SMRC, Indikator Ahok - Djarot Hidayat Anies Baswedan - Sandiaga Uno Oct-16 Nov Swing voters 57

58 217 Compendium Ahok: A liability for Jokowi Following his speech at Seribu Islands, current Jakarta Governor, Ahok, a Christian, is becoming a political liability for Jokowi. If not resolved properly, this could substantially weaken Jokowi s position, a possible market negative. In Ahok s public appearance, he stated that voters should not be tricked by politicians, who cite Al-Maidah verse 51 from the Holy Qur an to justify their assertion that leaders must be Muslim. This has resulted in massive rallies by some Muslim organizations against Ahok on 4 November 216. Based on Indonesia s Criminal Law Book, article No. 156, blasphemy or defamation of religious elements is a violation of the law and violators could receive a maximum 5 years of imprisonment. Blasphemy case: Ahok summoned by the Police Criminal Investigation Directorate Source: Tempo Indonesia s Criminal Law on blasphemy Article 156 A person who publicly gives expression to feelings of hostility, hatred or contempt against one or more groups of the population of Indonesia, shall be punished with a maximum imprisonment of four years. 1 st rally: 14 October 216 Article 156a A maximum imprisonment of five years shall be imposed upon any person who deliberately in public gives expressed feelings or commits acts: (a) which principally have the character of being at enmity with, abusing or staining a religion, adhered to in Indonesia; (b) with the intention to prevent a person to adhere to any religion based on the belief in the almighty God. Source: Hukumonline.com Source: Tempo 58

59 217 Compendium Rally on blasphemy Police set up 4 Brimob (Mobile Brigade) members elected from different regions to secure the planned demonstration on 4 November, from the Istiqlal Mosque to the State Palace. The police will use a white turban, fez Hajj and be unarmed. Fahri Hamzah and Fadli Zon, Vice Chairmen of the House of Representatives (DPR), were reported by Team Legal Counsel of the Enforcement Committee to the Court Honor Board (MKD), for inciting a mass demonstration that occurred on 4 November in Jakarta. On 2 December, the police has arrested eight well-known activists including: Rachmawati Soekarno Putri (Megawati s younger sister), Ratna Sarumpaet, Ahmad Dani, Kivlan Zein, and Sri Bintang Pamungkas, for allegedly attempting to undermine the Jokowi government. This suggests that Jokowi remains firmly in power. 3 rd rally: 2 December nd rally: 4 November 216 Source: Tempo Some activists allegedly arrested on 2 December 216 Sri Bintang Pamungkas Activist Rachmawati Soekarno Putri Activist, Megawati's sister Adityawarman Thaha Former Special Staff Military Chief Rijal Kobar Activist Eko Putro Santjojo Activist Ratna Sarumpaet Activist Kivlan Zein Former Army Strategic Reserves Command Head of Staff (Kostrad) Ahmad Dhani Vice Regent candidate of Bekasi Firza Huzein Activist Jamran Coordinator of North Jakarta Society Alliance Source: Tempo Source: Tempo 59

60 217 Compendium Jokowi s efforts to shore up support from important political figures 31 October November 216 Met Prabowo Subianto, opposition head from Gerindra, at Prabowo s ranch Met 78 Senior Muslim leaders and scholars from modern Islamic boarding school and group in Banten and West Java 1 November November 216 Met Chief of Muhammadiyah Haedar Nashir, Chief of Indonesian Ulama Council (MUI) Ma ruf Amin, Chief of Nahdatul Ulama (PBNU) Said Aqil Siroj at the Presidential Palace a. Met marine troops at Cilandak headquarters b. Met mobile brigade corps at Kelapa Dua headquarters 7 November November 216 Met the army at army headquarters; Met PBNU's advisory board Ma'ruf Amin Met Prabowo Subianto at the Presidential Palace Source: Kompas, Bahana 6

61 217 Compendium 21 and 22 November November 216 Met Zulkifli Hasan, Chief of National Mandate Party (PAN) at the Presidential Palace 3 November 216 Location: Presidential Palace Met: a. Megawati Soekarnoputri, Chief of Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) b. Rohamurmuziy, Chief of Development Unity Party (PPP) c. Surya Paloh, Chief of Democratic National Party d. Setya Novanto, Chief of Golkar party 2 December 216 United Archipelago Movement held by Armed Forces Chief, Gatot Nurmantyo; these movements were held in all provinces throughout Indonesia 3 November 216 Met Muhaimin Iskandar, Chief of National Awakening Party (PKB) at the Presidential Palace Jokowi joined the Friday prayer with 2 December rally participants in National Monument (Monas) Source: Kompas, Bahana 61

62 217 Compendium 2nd reshuffle: Return of the queen; Possible 3 rd reshuffle? Speculations are rife that there could be a 3 rd cabinet reshuffle in the offing as Jokowi asked for political support from various political parties to help tilt the balance of power given recent attempt to have him removed from office. In August 216 s 2 nd cabinet reshuffle, the return of Sri Mulyani (No. 3) was among the biggest market surprises and has been positive due to her credibility and attitude towards good governance during her tenure as Finance Minister back in In this second cabinet reshuffle, we saw 9 new faces, with changes in 12 ministerial posts as well as the Head of the Coordinating Investment Board. With the new composition, 16 ministers (4% of the 42 cabinet members, of which 34 are ministers) belong to political parties while the remaining 6% are professionals. New faces and rotations in the cabinet Incumbent New Incumbent New Background of new cabinet members No Position Incumbent Current Background 1 Minister of Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs Luhut Pandjaitan Wiranto Chief of People's Conscience Party (Hanura) 2 Minister of Coordinating Maritime Affairs Rizal Ramli Luhut Pandjaitan Former Minister of Coordinating Political, Legal and Security Affairs 3 Minister of Finance Bambang Sri Mulyani World Bank Managing Director Brodjonegoro 4 Minister of National Development Sofyan Djalil Bambang Former MoF Planning Board Brodjonegoro 5 Minister of Agrarian and Spatial Planning Ferry Mursidan Sofyan Djalil Former Minister of National Development Planning Board 6 Minister of Trade Thomas Lembong Enggartiasto Lukita The House member (NasDem), businessman 7 Head of Investment Coordinating Board Franky Sibarani Thomas Lembong Former Minister of Trade 8 Minister of Transportation Ignatius Jonan Budi Karya Sumadi CEO of Angkasa Pura II (state-owned airport company) 9 Minister of Apparatus and Yuddy Chrisnandi Asman Abnur PAN's politician Bureaucracy 1 Minister of Culture and Elementary and Secondary Education Anies Baswedan Muhadjir Effendy Rector of Muhammadyah University, Malang 11 Minister of Industry Saleh Husein Airlangga Hartanto Former Indonesia Listed Companies Association and The House member 12 Minister of Villages, Disadvantaged Regions and Transmigration Marwan Jafar Eko Putro Sandjojo Former GM Indonesia Farming 13 Minister of Energy & Mineral Sudirman Said Ignatius Jonan Former Minister of Transportation Resources 14 Vice Minister of Industry - Franky Sibarani Former Head of Investment Coordinating Board 15 Vice Minister of Energy & Mineral Resources - Archandra Tahar Former Minister of Energy & Mineral Resources Source: Cabinet Secretary, Bahana Source: Cabinet Secretary, Bahana

63 217 Compendium The new Military & Intelligence Agency Chiefs For an emerging market like Indonesia, military developments remain of paramount importance, particularly with the installation of Gatot as the new Military Chief. It is interesting to see that Megawati was neither able to assert her choice (#2) for Military Chief nor have Budi Gunawan (#5) as Police Chief. However, as a compromise with Megawati, Jokowi has appointed Budi Gunawan as head of the new National Intelligence Agency (BIN), replacing Sutiyoso, to balance the political situation. In his effort to improve the intelligence function in Indonesia, Jokowi has appointed Gories Mere (#6) as Intelligence Special Staff to report directly to the President himself. Chiefs of Armed Forces New Intelligence structure President 3 Special Staff 5 6 Head of BIN Source: Tempo, Bahana Military Chief appointments, Personal details General Edi Sudradjat 1993 (Army) General Feisal Tanjung (Army) General Wiranto (Army) Admiral Widodo Adi Sutjipto (Navy) General Endriartono Sutarto (Army) No Position Name/Age Background 1 Military Chief Gatot Nurmantyo/ (55) Former Commander of Army s Strategic Reserves, Former Governor of Military Academy 2 Navy Chief Ade Supandi/ (54) Former Chief of General Staff, Former Governor of Navy Academy Marshal Djoko Suyanto (Air Force) General Djoko Santoso (Army) Admiral Agus Suhartono (Navy) General Moeldoko (Army) General Gatot Nurmantyo 215 (Army) 3 Army Chief Mulyono/ (54) 4 Air Force Chief Agus Supriatna/ (56) Former Commander of Army s Strategic Reserves, Former Commander of Jayakarta s Military Command Former Chief of General Staff, Former Commander of Air Force Operations 5 National Intelligence Agency Chief Budi Gunawan/ (57) Former Vice Police Chief, Former Police s Education Institution 6 Intelligence Special Staff Gories Mere/ (61) Narcotics Agency Chief, Deputy of Police s Criminal Directorate Source: Military, Bahana Source: Tempo, Bahana 63

64 New national Police Chief: A corruption reform determinant On 14 July, Jokowi appointed Tito Karnavian as Indonesia s new Police Chief, leapfrogging over several older candidates and bypassing Budi Gunawan. Overall, we believe this is positive for Jokowi s corruption reform effort. Comm. General Syafruddin has been named as the next Deputy Police Chief, replacing Genr Budi Gunawan, who has replaced Sutiyoso as Intelligence Agency (BIN) Chief. General Tito Karnavian presented 11 police priority programs: (a) internal reformation, (b) public service acceleration, (c) quality improvement, (d) internal welfare development, (e) service quality, (f) crime prevention, (g) public safety, (h) professional law enforcement, (i) internal system development, (j) quick wins program and (k) public awareness of citizens security and public order. Police Chief Genr Badrodin Haiti Source: Tempo 217 Compendium Genr Tito Karnavian Vice Police Chief Old New Personal details No Name/Age Accomplishments Retirement 1 Genr Tito Karnavian / 51 Current Police Chief, Chief of National Counter-Terrorism Agency (BNPT), Jakarta Police Chief (216) 222 Genr Budi Gunawan Former Vice National Police Chief/ New Head of BIN Comm. Genr Syafruddin New Vice National Police Chief 2 Com. Genr Syafruddin / 55 Current Vice Police Chief, Chairman of Police Educational Institution (216) 219 Source: Tempo Source: Tempo, Bahana 64

65 217 Compendium Foiling corruption and terrorism cases positive for investment In 216, Indonesia has made solid progress in arresting both corruption and bombing suspects. On the latter, 2 suspected terrorists, most allegedly affiliated with ISIS, have been arrested by the police. On the corruption front, total of 18 suspects were already arrested by agents of the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK). Some of the suspects were government officials. Corruption and security are two areas of focus in Jokowi s administration. Based on the government s efforts, we believe there will be improvements in the country, which would be positive for investment on the ground. Arrested corruption suspects, 216 ytd No Name Position Case Alleged bribe amt 1 Handang Soekarno Tax official Bribery on corporate tax reduction IDR1.9bn 2 Officials Officials of Ministry of Transportation Extortion on permits IDR1.2bn 3 Yan Anton Ferdian Regent of Musi Banyuasin Bribery on procurement in education division IDR1bn 4 Irman Gusman Chairman Regional Representative Sugar import quota IDR1mn Council (DPD) 5 Rohadi Substituted clerk of North Jakarta court Bribery in molestation of minors case IDR25mn 6 Putu Sudiartana Member of House Representative Bribery on road building in West Sumatra SGD4k 7 Muhammad Santoso Substituted clerk of Central Jakarta court Bribery to accelerate civil law case SGD28k 8 Janner Purba Judge of Bengkulu court Bribery to avoid state hospital official salary IDR15mn corruption case 9 Ojang Suhandi Regent of Subang Social security fund corruption case IDR528mn 1 Devianti Roachaeni Prosecutor in West Java Court Social security fund corruption case IDR528mn 11 Fahri Nurmallo Prosecutor in West Java Court Social security fund corruption case IDR528mn 12 Edy Nasution Substituted clerk of Central Jakarta court Bribery to accelerate civil law case IDR5mn 13 M. Sanusi Member of DKI Jakarta Regional House Jakarta reclamation act discussion IDR1.1bn Representative 14 Ariesman Widjaja President Director of PT Agung Jakarta reclamation act discussion IDR1.1bn Podomoro 15 Sudi Wantoko CFO of PT Brantas Abipraya (SoE) PT Brantas Abipraya corruption case USD148k 16 Dandung Pamularno Senior manager of PT Brantas Abipraya PT Brantas Abipraya corruption case USD148k (SOE) 17 Andri Tristianto Sutrisna Official on Supreme Court Civil law case in Mataram court IDR4mn 18 Damayani Wisnu Putranti Member of House Representative Bribery from CEO PT Windu Tunggal Utama IDR8bn Source: Tempo, Bahana Bombing cases in 3 regions, 216 Sarinah Afif and 4 others, backed by ISIS, who allegedly bombed a police station and an American coffee shop in the heart of Jakarta on 14 January, targeting police officers and tourists. Seven people died, including 2 foreigners and all suspects, and some were injured. Source: liputan6.com, Bahana Surakarta Nur Rohman, a terrorist allegedly backed by ISIS, attacked a police station in Surakarta, Central Java on 5 July, targeting police officers post their morning assembly. The suspect died and a police officer who blocked the suspect was injured. Samarinda church Juhanda, terrorist suspect who has alleged affiliation with the Sarinah bombing suspects and ISIS, attacked a church during a service in Samarinda, East Kalimantan, on 13 November, targeting church members. The suspect was arrested. A child died and several other children were injured. Arrested bombing suspects, 216 ytd No Suspects name Location Terrorism case Affiliation 1 RPW Majalengka, West Java Samarinda bombing Ansharut Daulah, Pepi Fernando 2 Juhanda Samarinda, East Samarinda bombing Ansharut Daulah, Pepi Fernando Kalimantan 3 WW, S, R, D, and AU Bekasi, West Java 4 Abu Sama Kalideres, Jakarta 5 Gatot Witono Magetan, East Java Jamaah Islamiyah 6 LH Batam, Riau Islands Plan to do bombing in Singapore Kitabah Gonggong and Bahrun Naim 7 Munir Kartono Gunung Putri, West Java Surakarta bombing Bahrun Naim 8 Santoso Poso, Central Sulawesi Poso bombing East Mujahidin Indonesia and ISIS 9 Basri Poso, Central Sulawesi Poso bombing East Mujahidin Indonesia and ISIS 1 Priyo Budi Purnomo Surabaya, East Java Plan to do bombing Abu Jandal and ISIS 11 Befri Rahmawan Norcahyono Surabaya, East Java Plan to do bombing Abu Jandal and ISIS 12 Feri Novendi Surabaya, East Java Plan to do bombing Abu Jandal and ISIS 13 Mustafa Poso, Central Sulawesi East Mujahidin Indonesia and ISIS 14 Rudi Hadiyanto Malang, East Java 15 K and LA Karawang, West Java 16 Edi Santoso Bandar Lampung, East Mujahidin Indonesia and ISIS Lampung 17 Candra and Adri Luwu, South Sulawesi East Mujahidin Indonesia and ISIS 18 Didin Nasrul Mukmin Denpasar, Bali Sarinah bombing ISIS and Bahrun Naim 19 DAP Tangerang Sarinah bombing ISIS and Bahrun Naim 2 Kuswanto Ciputat, Tangerang Sarinah bombing ISIS and Bahrun Naim Source: Tempo, Bahana 65

66 217 Compendium Corruption Commission: Investigating past cases during SBY era Jokowi is taking an interest to investigate 3 cases which were inherited from the previous administration. Jokowi has already asked the Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) to investigate the forgotten cases: Hambalang, Century Bank and 34 flopped power plants, which all occurred during the SBY regime. The country has lost IDR7bn from the Hambalang project, IDR8tn from Bank Century and around IDR11tn due to 34 flopped power plants, most of which are in Kalimantan. Two suspects have been arrested related to the state loss of IDR2tn on e-id procurement. Likewise, there are currently two suspects related to the Bank Century case. Suspects in Bank Century case; Suspects in e-id case Hermawan Muslim President Director of Bank Century (suspect) Source: okezone.com, Bahana Budi Mulya Former BI Deputy Governor (suspect) Robert Tantular Owner of Bank Century (outlaw) Sugiharto Former Domestic Affairs Ministry's Director Irman Former Domestic Affairs Ministry's General Director of Population e-id card Hambalang suspects No Suspect name Position Alleged evidence 1 Deddy Kusdinar Sport Ministry's Head of Planning IDR1.25bn Bureau 2 Andi Alifian Mallarangeng Former Minister of Youth and Sports IDR4bn and USD55k 3 Andi Zulkarnain Brother of A.A. Mallarangeng's IDR4bn Mallarangeng 4 M. Nazaruddin Former Treasury of Democratic Party IDR1bn 5 Anas Urbaningrum Former Chief of Democratic Party IDR2.2bn 6 Mahfud Suroso Former CEO of Dutasari, a IDR28.8bn subcontractor company for electricity 7 Mahyudin The House's Chief of Commission X IDR5mn 8 Olly Dondokambey The House's Budget Agency member IDR2.5bn 9 Joyo Winoto Former Head of National Land Agency IDR3bn 1 Wafid Muhamaram Former Secretary of Youth and Sports IDR6.5bn Ministry 11 Teuku Bagus M. Noor Former ADHI's Operational Director IDR4.5bn 12 Officials Ministry of Public Works IDR135mn Source: Tempo 34 flopped power plants Location Province Energy source Capacity Location Province Energy source Capacity Kuala Tungkal Riau Coal fire 2x7MW Gorontalo Gorontalo Coal fire 2x25MW Bengkalis Riau Coal fire 2x1MW Lapal North Sulawesi Coal fire 2x3MW Tembilahan (EPC) Riau Coal fire 2x7MW Talau North Sulawesi Coal fire 2x3MW Tembilahan (IPP) Riau Coal fire 2x5.5MW Alor East Nusa Tenggara Coal fire 2x3MW Ipuh Seblat Bengkulu Coal fire 2x3MW Atambua East Nusa Tenggara Coal fire 4x6MW Kuala Pambuang Central Kalimantan Coal fire 2x3MW Rote Ndao East Nusa Tenggara Coal fire 2x3MW Malinau North Kalimantan Coal fire 2x3MW West Sumbawa West Nusa Tenggara Coal fire 2x7MW Parit Baru West Kalimantan Coal fire 2x5MW Bima West Nusa Tenggara Coal fire 2x1MW Bengkayang West Kalimantan Coal fire 2x27.5MW Kendari Southeast Sulawesi Coal fire 1x1MW Tanjung Redep East Kalimantan Coal fire 2x7MW Bau-Bau Southeast Sulawesi Coal fire 2x7MW Tanjung Selor North Kalimantan Coal fire 2x7MW Raha Southeast Sulawesi Coal fire 2x3MW Sampit Central Kalimantan Coal fire 2x25MW Wangi-Wangi Southeast Sulawesi Coal fire 2x3MW Buntok Central Kalimantan Coal fire 2x7MW Sofifi North Maluki Coal fire 2x3MW Kotabaru South Kalimantan Coal fire 2x7MW Timika Papua Coal fire 4x7MW Tarakan North Kalimantan Coal fire 2x7MW Waii Papua Coal fire 2x15MW Jempana Bali Coal fire 2x9MW Kalibumi West Papua Mini hydro 2x6MW Buleleng Bali Coal fire 2x.6MW Jayapura Papua Coal fire 2x15MW Source: liputan6.com, Bahana 66

67 217 Compendium Ahok s case and Jakarta governor race: The end game B L A S P H E M Y C A S E R E S U L T S Ahok s Jakarta Governor Race Result WIN LOSE RIOT NOT GUILTY Positive for market: Progressive perception on law Stronger Jokowi Weak opposition Solid implementation of policies Positive attitude toward minority Semi negative for market: Positive perception on law Very weak Jokowi Raising opposition Some policy changes expected GUILTY Possible market de-rating: Negative for market: Semi positive sentiment toward minority Djarot, vice governor, to assume Ahok s position Negative perception on law PDIP to become stronger Slightly pessimistic perception on law Deterioration in confidence for Jokowi Stronger opposition S E L L I N D O N E S I A Source: Bahana Weaker Jokowi Uncertainties Unfair treatment toward minority Negative attitude toward minority 67

68 219 election outlook: Plenty of excitement For the first time in the history of Indonesia, the 219 parliamentary & presidential elections will be conducted simultaneously. The election bill is expected to be finalized in mid-217. In 2Q17, we will have a completely new Election Commission (KPU), including the KPU Chief, which should further strengthen Jokowi s position as we head into 219 Presidential elections. Juri Ardiantoro, former commissioner of the KPU, has become the current KPU Chief for the remaining leadership period of 8 months, replacing Husni Manik who passed away on 7 July. On the 219 presidential elections, the voting would be changed to a new online system, possibly provided by Smartmatic, a US company based in London, which had been used in countries like the Philippines. Note, however, that there have been incidences of online crime in the Philippines 216 presidential vote. How Jokowi may run in 219 Source: Detik, Bahana 217 Compendium Join another political party Election Commission Chief replacement Smartmatic s projects Simultaneous parliamentpresidential elections and electronic-based elections Husni Kamil Manik Juri Ardiantoro No General Election Commision (KPU) 1 Planning and preparing general election 2 Accepting submission, examining, and establishing political parties eligible to compete in an election 3 Establishing the Indonesian Election Commission, which will coordinate election management from central down to each polling stations 4 Establishing the number of seats for each legislative bodies (the House and Regional House) in each electoral district 5 Establishing legislative election results (the House and Regional House) in each electoral district 6 Collecting and systematically arranging materials and data for Election results data 7 Leading stages of Election management Source: Kontan, Bahana Bolivia 29 Mexico 29 Source: Kontan, Bahana Zambia 21 Brazil 212 Belgium 212 Venezuela 212 & 215 The Philippines 28, 21, 213 & 216 Indonesia

69 217 Compendium PUBLIC POLICIES 69

70 217 Compendium SOE Super Holding Co.: Bigger & stronger SOE Minister Rini Soemarno has stated that the government plans to establish an SOE Super Holding body to strengthen the funding foundation for SOEs. President Jokowi, Vice President Jusuf Kalla and MoF Sri Mulyani are expected to be the commissioners of the SOE Super Holding entity, which is expected to be implemented in 217. SOE minister Rini Soemarno would be CEO of the SOE Super Holding body. As of 215, compared to its peers, the SOE Super Holding company is estimated to have USD429bn in total assets, much higher than both Temasek Holdings (Singapore) USD295bn and Khazanah Nasional s (Malaysia) USD22bn on a combined basis. SOE Super Holding body Sectoral holdings SOE Super Holding Stand alone SOEs Source: SOE Ministry, Bahana SOE Super Holding: Board of Commissioners Comparison among peer holdings, 215 Joko Widodo Jusuf Kalla CEO Sri Mulyani Total asset (USDbn) Total debt (USDbn) Equity (USDbn) Revenue (USDbn) Tax paid (USDbn) Net income (USDbn) Dividends (USDbn) n.a Source: CNN Indonesia, Bahana Rini Soemarno Revenue to GDP (%) Asset to GDP (%) Gross gearing (%) ROE (%) Dividend contribution to government revenue (%) n.a Source: SOE Ministry, Temasek Holding, Khazanah Nasional, Bahana 7

71 217 Compendium SOE holdings: Consolidation in progress SOE Minister Rini Soemarno stated that the planned formation of the 7 SOE holdings: Staples, Mining, Energy, Financial Services, Construction, Housing and Maritime. Theoretically, the merger of some similar companies could introduce greater efficiencies to SOEs and deliver improved profitability for the shareholder (government). However, too much privilege on the new big SOE holdings could create some disadvantages for private corporates. On this restructuring, the most interesting part is the merging of the 4 SOE banks, reflecting c.11% of JCI market cap. Worth noting also is the merger between PGAS and Pertagas under Pertamina which would mean less competition and greater benefit for PGAS. Most of these SOE restructuring are likely only to commence in 217. In general, whether the creation of these new SOE holdings would disadvantage minorities would hinge on the various share swap calculations. Projected SOE mining holding Projected SOE staples holding 1.%* 1.%* 1.%* 1.%* 1.%* 1.%* 1.%* Source: Kontan, Bahana Projected SOE energy holding Public 57%+x* 1.%* 65.%* 65.%* 65.%* 9.36%* 43%-x* 1.%* Source: Kontan, Bahana Source: Kontan, Bahana 71

72 217 Compendium Projected SOE financial services holding Projected SOE toll-road and construction holding 66%* 7%* 1%* 65%* 1%* Source: Kontan, Bahana Projected SOE housing holding Source: Kontan, Bahana Projected SOE maritime holding Ports Shipping 1.%* 51.%* 51.%* 1.%* 1.%* 1.%* Industrials Source: Kontan, Bahana Source: Kontan, Bahana 72

73 SOE companies: Breakdown Most SOE companies are from the processing industry (25%), transportation & warehousing (21%) and financial services (16%). Based on 215 data, SOE net income is mostly from financial services & insurance at USD6.5bn in total (43% of contribution), followed by IT (15%), mining (14%) and gas industry (14%). By asset, financial services also have the highest total assets of USD2bn (49% of contribution), followed by gas, and the steam and cold air procurement sector (23% of total assets) in 215. Number of companies, 215 Plantation, forestry, fishery & agriculture 7% Mining 4% IT 2% Gas, steam & cold air procurement 2% Financial services and insurance 16% Construction 8% Accomodation, food and beverage 1% Water supply, waste management and recycling 2% 217 Compendium Transportation & warehousing 21% Processing industry 25% Real estate 2% Professional, scientific & technical services 8% Source: SOE Ministry, Bahana Wholesale & retail trading 2% Net income contribution, 215 Asset contribution, 215 Professional, scientific & technical services % Water supply, waste management & recycling % Real estate % Wholesale & retail trading 1% Accomodation, food and beverage % Construction 2% Plantation, forestry, fishery & agriculture 1% IT 15% Accomodation, food and beverage % Professional, scientific & technical services % Real estate % Water supply, waste management & recycling % Wholesale & retail trading % Construction 2% IT 3% Plantation, forestry, fishery & agriculture 2% Transportation & warehousing 4% Processing industry 5% Financial services and insurance 43% Transportation & warehousing 6% Processing industry 4% Financial services and insurance 49% Mining 12% Mining 14% Source: SOE Ministry, Bahana Gas, steam & cold air procurement 14% Source: SOE Ministry, Bahana Gas, steam & cold air procurement 23% 73

74 217 Compendium Jokowi s reforms and stimulus The Jokowi government has launched 13 economic policy packages and 24 prospective regulations, from improving national industry competitiveness to low-income residential property incentives. So far, successful government reforms include easing investment permits, creating special economic zones and implementing a new minimum-wage formula. Recent news reports indicate that the government may launch phase 14 of its economic policy package, focusing on e-commerce regulation. Following this, there could be packages on warehouse revitalization, incentives for the Indonesian diaspora, aviation industry development, intellectual property services, SME product standardization and sector deregulation. Economic reforms progress No. Project Accomplishment 1. Bonded logistic centers Launched: 12; In progress: 16; including airplane maintenance industry and oil 2. Investment permits USD16bn of registered investment commitment or 88 projects 3. Industrial zones Kendal, Demak, Ungaran, Bitung 4. New formula for wage 14 provinces already set 216 minimum wage system in system accordance to government regulation No. 78/215) 5. Special economic zones 42 business sectors with total value of IDR28.7tn 6. Export financing INKA exported 15 train carriages worth USD72.3mn to Bangladesh 7. EoDB for SMEs Simplify permits and procedures which shorten lead time and costs in 1 indicators 8. Fiscal incentive 18 companies use it with average processing time of 13.4 simplification days (previous: 2 years) 9. SME's export product Launched with maiden export from North Sulawesi through aggregator SOEs' synergies program 1. Revisions on negative list Implemented since 24 June 216 with 527 of companies participating Source: Government, Bahana Summary of economic stimulus packages Phase 1, 9 September 215 Phase 7, 7 December 215 Phase 9, 27 January 216 Improving national industry competitiveness Stimulating business activities in labor-intensive industries nation-wide through incentives in the form of accelerating land certification process for individuals Accelerating electricity generation, stabilizing meat prices and improving rural-urban logistics sector Phase 2, 29 September prospective regulations Phase 1, 11 February 216 Easing permit requirement and simplifying export Revising negative investment list and improving proceeds requirement protection for SMEs Phase 3, 7 October signed regulations Phase 11, 29 March 216 Financial services facilitation, export financing and elimination of business unnecessary burden 4 presidential decrees signed Stimulating national economy through facilitation to SMEs and industries Phase 5, 22 October 215 Phase 12, 28 April 26 Improving industry and investment climate through 154 ministerial decrees signed Improving Indonesia's rank on ease of doing business tax incentives and deregulating of sharia banking Phase 6, 6 November 215 Phase 8, 21 December 215 Phase 13, 24 August 216 Stimulating economic activities in border areas and facilitating strategic commodities availability Source: Government, Bahana Resolving land acquisition disputes, intensifying domestic oil production, stimulating domestic parts and aviation industries Residential property for low income families 74

75 217 Compendium Jokowi s pro grass-root projects By October 216, village funds utilization had reached 8% of the targeted IDR47tn full-year total amount. Based on this program, we expect to see higher village funds amounting to IDR12tn in 218. President Jokowi is planning to increase village infrastructure and provide town planning through village funds. By 217, Jokowi plans to reach self-sufficiency for some staples, e.g. rice, corn, soybean, cattle, etc. Recently, Jokowi launched new seeds of corn called NASA, which can grow 2 corns in 1 stem, obtained from the ministry of agriculture. In order to increase staples production capacity, Jokowi stated that 9mn ha land distribution scheme is currently being prepared. The land will be given to farmers for free. Jokowi s village funds program 215 Village funds IDR2tn Total villages 74,93 Amount/ village IDR28bn 216 Village funds IDR47tn ( 235%) Total villages 74,754 Amount/ village IDR65bn ( 232%) 217 Village funds IDR6tn ( 127%) Total villages 74,954 Amount/ village IDR79bn ( 121%) 218 Village funds IDR12tn ( 2%) Total villages 74,954 Amount/ village IDR1.4bn ( 177%) Source: Detik, Bahana Jokowi s staples self-sufficiency programs, 217 Program Current 217 target Rice production (tpa) 79.1mn 73mn (already achieved) Corn production (tpa) 23.5mn 2mn (already achieved) Soybean production (tpa) 885.5k 1.2mn Cattle production 2.8mn cows 2mn insemination acceptors and 1,2 breeds Chili production - To be developed in 25 provinces Onion production - To be developed in 33 provinces Sugarcane crop development 62,ha 12,ha farm land (already achieved) Reservoir - 11 new reservoirs Agriculture land optimization - 73,ha Fertilizer distribution - 4mn ha Farm tools supply 49,2 units Irrigation development - 7,ha Farming roads development - 9,4km Underground water supply trench - 23, units Source: Kontan, Bahana Jokowi s land program: Priority recipients for 9mn ha in 25 provinces Source: Kontan, Bahana Priority 1 Priority 2 Priority 3 Priority 4 Priority 5 Priority 6 Priority 1 People in priority 2 who are local residents Priority 2 People in priority 3 who work with other farmers Priority 3 People in priority 4 that have been farming and have <.5ha land Priority 4 People in priority 5 that have been farming and have >.5ha land Priority 5 People in priority 6 who have income less than USD2/day Priority 6 People who work in agricultural sector 75

76 217 Compendium Jokowi s magic cards: Benefiting the low end The Prosperous Family Card (KKS) has replaced the Social Security Card (KPS), which had been used for receiving subsidized rice (RASKIN), cash transfers for poor students (BSM) and unconditional cash transfers (BLSM). Since Jokowi took office in 214, the unemployment rate has fallen to 5.6% as of August 216 (Feb 215: 5.81%, -2bps). The government has begun distributing new farmer cards as a way to monitor the effectiveness of agricultural subsidies and assistance programs for farmers. The cards have been administered to sugarcane farmers and are to be offered to onion, corn and rice farmers. Jokowi s magic cards and new farmer-card Farmer-card Prosperous Family Card (KKS) > Social Security Card (KPS) substitution, as ID for poor families > Distribution target of 15.5mn (current: 14.5mn) > Distributed funds: IDR6.2tn with each family receiving IDR2k/month > Payable at community level Unemployment rate, February August 216 (%) Feb-11 Aug-11 Feb-12 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15 Feb-16 Aug-16 E-money Card > Appearance is like a SIM card, with the account number the same as the mobile number. > Each family will receive 1 e- money card to be activated in the cellphone > Distributed funds: IDR6.2tn with each family receives IDR2k/ month > Families can refer the fund distribution by dialing*141*6# on their cellphone > Payable at the post offices Healthy Indonesia Card (KIS) > Issued to 6m poor families > Health insurance cards and BPJS cards are still usable > Serves as an insurance card > Distribution target to 88.2m families > Available at any clinic and hospital > Used for treatments, as well as preventions Smart Indonesia Card (KIP) > Reaching poor and slightly-abovepoverty-line students of 6m > Distribution target of 2.3m students > Have distributed to 19.5m students > Distributed funds: Around IDR6.6tn for IDR225k/ student/ semester (elementary school), IDR375k/ student/ semester (middle school) and IDR5k/ student/ semester (high school) > Distributed in cash for buying books,uniforms and other needs > Distributed by institutions appointed by Minister of Education Source: CEIC Source: Detik, Bahana 76

77 217 Compendium Price controls: A double-edged sword The Ministry of Trade has made regulations for floor and ceiling prices, with 7 commodities being regulated. The government plans to maintain inflation and cut out the middle-man from the distribution channel. Jokowi s economic policies should provide benefits at the grass-root level, as lower prices should lead to improved purchasing power for Indonesian consumers in the mid-to-low-end segments. The Directorate General of Poultry was recently removed for failing to lower beef prices. That said, these government policies may necessitate higher imports due to potential domestic shortages. Ministry of Trade Regulation no. 63/ 216 No Staples Floor price (for farmers) (IDR / kg) Ceiling price (for customers) (IDR / kg) 1 Rice Dry grain harvest 3,7 - Dried paddy 4,5 - Rice 7, 9,5 2 Corn 15% water content 3,15 3,65 2% water content 3,5-25% water content 2,85-3% water content 2,75-35% water content 2,5-3 Soybean Local 8,5 9,2 Import 6,55 6,8 Source: Trade Ministry, Bahana No Staples Floor price (for farmers) (IDR / kg) Ceiling price (for customers) (IDR / kg) 4 Sugar Basic price 9,1 - Auction price 11, 13, 5 Chilly Red chilly 15, 28,5 Big red chilly 15, 28,5 Small red chilly 17, 29, 6 Onions 15, 28,5 7 Meats 8, Beefs - 8, Buffalo meats - 65, Winners Sector Foods & Beverages Retail Telco Stock Car rentals ASSA Source: Bahana ICBP, MYOR, ROTI AMRT, DNET, RALS, MIDI TLKM, EXCL, ISAT, TELE, ERAA EXCL, ISAT, FREN Improved purchasing power and lower raw materials cost Improved purchasing power Improved purchasing power Lower interconnection rates Higher utilization rates, helped by greater UBER & Grab presence Losers Sector Stock Impact Auto/Taxi ASII, BIRD, IMAS, TAXI Lower LCGC prices (4% of ASII and 14% of IMAS revenue) to also pave the way for increased UBER and Grab fleet Aviation GIAA Price floor removal for flight ticket prices Banks BBCA, BBRI, BMRI, BBNI, Single-digit lending rates and deposit rate ceiling of not BDMN, BTPN, BBTN, BJBR, more than BI rate will likely translate into NIM contraction BJTM, BBKP Flour milling INDF Lower flour prices (24% of INDF revenue) Gas PGAS Lower gas prices (89% of PGAS revenue) Healthcare KLBF, MIKA, SILO, TSPC, Lower drug prices (25% of KLBF, 47% of MIKA, 33% of KAEF SILO, 26% of TSPC and 27% of KAEF revenue) Plantations AALI, SIMP, TBLA Lower cooking oil prices (6% of SIMP and <35% of AALI, 31% of TBLA revenue) Poultry CPIN, JPFA, MAIN, SIPD Lower beef & chicken prices: 14% chicken CPIN; 4% beef & 37% chicken - JPFA; 8% chicken for MAIN revenue Property LPKR, CTRA Indirect price control through higher land & building tax for 2 nd homes in Jakarta (33% marketing sales of LPKR & 3% of CTRA) Rice distribution AISA, BISI Lower rice prices (67% of AISA, 8% of BISI revenue) Sugar import TBLA Lower sugar prices (12% of TBLA revenue) Telco TLKM Lower interconnection rates (4% of TLKM revenue) Toll roads Source: Bahana ASII, JSMR, WSKT, CMNP, META Lower tariffs for Lebaran week (1% of JSMR, 1% of WSKT, <1% of ASII and 1% of CMNP revenue) 77

78 217 Compendium Sri Mulyani: Raising market confidence Sri Mulyani, a former World Bank Managing Director, was named the new MoF on 27 July 216, replacing Bambang Brodjonegoro, who is now Minister of National Development Planning. We believe Sri Mulyani s appointment has instilled confidence in the market. Since her return, Sri Mulyani has focused on fiscal policies, in particular reducing the fiscal deficit and increasing tax revenue. We believe she has been instrumental in the success of the tax amnesty program. Sri Mulyani has cut the budget for ministries and agencies by IDR117.4tn and reduced regional transfers by IDR72.9tn. In 217, she plans to cut an additional IDR2.7tn from ministerial budgets. Sri Mulyani at a glance Professional background Minister of Finance (216- Now) World Bank Managing Director and Chief Operating Officer (21-216) Minister of Finance (28-21) Minister of National Development Planning (24-25) IMF Executive Director (22-24) Educational background Bachelor of Economics from Universitas Indonesia ( ) M.Sc and Ph.D in Economics from University of Illinois at Urbana- Champaign ( ) Tax policies and reforms Budget cuts, 216 vs. 217 Tax Amnesty Export duties Cigarette excise tax Tax official arrests The policy aims to increase tax revenue from asset declaration and repatriation. The domestic asset declaration and foreign repatriation will be charged 2%, 4%, 6% on 1 st -3 rd and foreign asset declaration will be charged 4%, 6% and 1% respectively. New tax scheme for animal skins (25%), woods (2-15%), cocoa (15%), palm oil and its derivatives (USD65-262/mt) for 216 and minerals (6%) for 217. Increasing cigarette excise tax to 1.5% in 217 (216: 11.2%). Herry Setiadji, Slamet Riyana, and Indarto Catur Nugroho (Jakarta tax officials) Handang Soekarno (Tax Directorate official) Source: Government, Bahana Source: Ministry of Finance, Bahana 78

79 Management changes: The past and future The Ministry of SoE has replaced many board directors in 215 and 216 under the new leadership of Rini Soemarno. Some SoE board directors have served since 212 and must retire. The Board of Commissioners of Indonesia Financial Services Authority (OJK) is expected to be changed in 217 as its terms will end next year. We expect the market to watch closely the new OJK team. OJK and BI Bank Indonesia Board of Governors OJK Board of Commisioner Source: Indonesia FSA, Bank Indonesia Ronald Waas (Deputy of Governor) Hendar (Deputy of Governor) 217 Compendium Muliaman Darmansyah Hadad (Chairman) Rahmat Waluyanto (Vice Chairman) Nelson Tampubolon (Banking Supervision Chief Executive) Nurhaida (Capital Market Supervision Chief Executive) Firdaus Djaelani (Non-Bank Financial Supervision Chief Executive) Ilya Avianti (Head Board of Auditors) Kusumaningtuti Sandiharmy Soetiono (Head Board of Consumer Education and Protection) SOE s newly appointed directors Appointed Director Position Ahmad Baiquni President Director Panji Irawan Director Putrama Wahyu Setyawan Director Suprajato Director Rico Rizal Budidarmo Director Bank Negara Indonesia (BBNI) Hery Sidharta Director Adi Susilowati Director Bob Tyasika Ananta Director Anggoro Eko Cahyo Director Imam Budi Sarjito Director Asmawi Syam President Director Sis Apik Wijayanto Director Priyastomo Director Sunarso Director Susy Liestiowaty Director Bank Rakyat Indonesia (BBRI) Zulhelfi Abidin Director Donsuwan Simatupang Director Haru Koesmahargyo Director Kuswiyoto Director Mohammad Irfan Director Kartika Wirjoatmodjo President Director Rico Usthavia Frans. Director Sulaiman Arif Arianto Director Bank Mandiri (BMRI) Tardi Director Ahmad Siddik Badruddin Director Kartini Sally Director Handayani Director Catur Budi Harto Director Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) Adi Setianto Director Sulis Usdoko Director Oni Febriarto Rahardjo Director Rizkan Chandra President Director Ahyanizzaman Director Semen Indonesia (SMGR) Darmawan Junaidi Director Budi Siswoyo Director Source: Company Appointed Director Position Budi Harto President Director Adhi Karya (ADHI) Haris Gunawan Director Budi Saddewa Soediro Director Mochtar Riza Pahlevi President Director Purwijayanto Director PT. Timah (TINS) Muhamad Rizki Director Emil Ermindra Director Tumiyana President Director M Aprindi Director Pembangunan Perumahan (PTPP) Abdul Haris Tatang Director M Toha Fauzi Director Agus Pubrianto Director Gandira Gutawa Sumapraja Director Wijaya Karya (WIKA) I Gusti Ngurah Askhara Director Antonius N.S. Kosasih Director Dilo Seno Widagdo Director Danny Praditya Director Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) Nusantara Suyono Director Hendi Kusnadi Director Telkom Indonesia (TLKM) Harry M Zen Director Kimia Farma (KAEF) M. Wahyuli Syafari Director Tedy Badrujaman President Director Aneka Tambang (ANTM) Dimas Wikan Pramudhito Director Johan N.B. Nababan Director PT. Bukit Asam (PTBA) Arviyan Arifin President Director Waskita Karya (WSKT) Nyoman Wirya Adnyana Director Sukandar President Director Danang Danusiri Director Krakatau Steel (KRAS) Imam Purwanto Director Ogi Rulino Director Tambok P Setyawati Director Sigit Muhartono Director Garuda Indonesia (GIAA) Nicodemus P. Lampe Director Desi Arryani Director Subakti Syukur Director Jasa Marga (JSMR) Christiantio Prihambodo Director Anggiasari Director SoE directors with terms ending Name Position Bank Tabungan Negara (BBTN) Maryono President Director Mansyur Syamsuri Director Krakatau Steel (KRAS) Hilman Hasyim Director Jisman Siagian Director Kimia Farma (KAEF) Pujianto Director Rusdi Rosman Director Wijaya Karya (WIKA) Destiawan Soewardjono Director Bambang Pramujo Director Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGAS) Hendi Kusnadi Director Source: Company 79

80 217 Compendium Government & central bank policies: Impact on sectors and stocks No. Automotive Status Impact 1 Increased luxury tax to 1% for LCGC Plan Negative for ASII and IMAS 2 ERP policy (Jakarta) Plan Negative for ASII and IMAS 3 Higher taxes on motor vehicles up to 15% Signed Negative for ASII and IMAS 4 Scania buses as the provider of Transjakarta Plan Positive for ASII and UNTR as the bus provider 5 Odd/even license plate Signed Negative for ASII and IMAS but Positive for BIRD and TAXI 6 Motorcycle ban in several main roads (Jakarta) Signed Negative for ASII and IMAS 7 One price of gasoline over nationwide Signed Positive for ASII and IMAS No. Aviation Status Impact 1 Lower ticket price ceiling by 5% Plan Neutral for GIAA due to lower fuel prices 2 No new airline establishment Signed Positive for GIAA No. Banking Status Impact 1 Govt. urges exporters to use IDR as payment currency Plan Helps BI to maintain USD/IDR 2 BI to implement reserve requirement ratio (GWM) averaging Plan Increased liquidity in banking industry 3 BI to lower credit card interest rate ceiling from 2.95% to 2.25% Plan Lower credit yield 4 Govt. implemented national strategy of financial inclusion Signed Increased participation and liquidity in banking industry 5 Govt. appointed 19 gateway banks to accommodate tax amnesty funds Signed Spur industry liquidity 6 LPS to increase premium rate for domestic systemic important banks (DSIBs) Plan To mitigate potential systematic risk in the industry 7 BI increased the floor cap of Loan to Funding ratio (LFR) from 78% to 8% Signed Boost loan growth in the industry 8 BI eased LTV regulation (eg. lower loan to value ratio for mortgage loan) Signed Provide positive sentiment to boost mortgage loans 9 Deposit rate ceiling for SOEs equivalent to BI rate Signed Lower cost of funding 1 BI shifted Indonesia benchmark rate from BI rate to 7 Days (reverse) Repo Rate Signed Lower cost of funding 11 D-SIB requires minimum CAR at 16-17% to mitigate potential defaults Signed More prudent 12 Changes from bail out to bail in mechanism for defaulting banks during crisis Signed More prudent FSA to cap deposit rate ceiling from 2bps to 75bps above BI rate for bank 13 category 4, and from 225bps to 1bps above BI rate form banks category 3 Signed Lower cost of funding provide room to lower lending rates 14 Government to limit maximum NIM of 4% in the banking sector Plan Pressure on banks earnings 15 Setting minimum CAR for banks with large conglomeration Signed More prudent 16 BI increased the maximum limit for electronic money Signed Improve Digital Finance Services (LDK) 17 BI cut the reserve requirement ratio (GWM) from 8% to 7.5% Signed Increased liquidity in banking industry 18 Lower tax on asset revaluation to 4% for 1H16 and 6% for 2H16 from 1% Signed Provides additional tier-1 capital for all banks The relaxation of a single obligor NPL policy to provide room for banks in doing 19 debt restructuring on project basis and related cash flows on those debtors Signed Helps BI to maintain NPLs 2 Lowering tax rates for exporters profits TD by around 1% Signed Helps BI to maintain USD/IDR 21 One year lock in period for verifying DSIB included in JPSK bill Plan Positive for big banks in terms of size and complexity 22 Leeway on regulation regarding account openings for foreigners Signed Helps BI to maintain USD/IDR 23 Simplification for foreigners to open bank accounts in foreign currencies Signed Helps BI to maintain USD/IDR 24 Lower the maximum limit of USD purchases through spot transactions from USD1,/month to USD25,/month Signed Helps BI to maintain USD/IDR No. Cement Status Impact 1 Price cut by IDR3, per 5kg bag Signed Negative for all cement players No. Coal Status Impact Source: Bahana Electricity tariff to be set by PLN China limiting coal working days to 276 days Coal prices to be passed-on for coal fired power plants Moratorium for coal export to the Philippines Signed Signed Signed Signed China s coal production capacity cut on inefficient mines Signed Positive for industry Export tax for coal (1.5%) Signed Negative for coal companies with powerplant projects like ADRO and PTBA Positive for Indonesian coal producers as prices have been rising ever since the new policy Negative for coal companies with local and power plant exposures Limited impact for Indonesian coal export as the Philippines imports only represent 3% of total exports Negative for all covered stocks, especially exporters like ITMG and ADRO China lifted 6% import tariffs on Australian coal Plan Positive for prices, negative for Indo coal volumes China s coal ban on high sulfur and ash usage Signed Positive for Indonesia s coal mining All transactions must use L/Cs Plan Lower illegal mining; Positive for price 1 Presidential decree to reduce coal license approval Plan Positive for domestic coal suppliers 11 Increased royalties on coal sales to 1-13% Plan Negative impact on IUP holders 12 Gradual divestment post 5-years production with maximum ownership of 49% after 1 years Signed Negative for foreign coal companies like ITMG 13 Mining holding (INALUM) Signed Only PTBA would be impacted No. Consumer Status Impact 1 Staples food distribution control Plan Positive for listed FMCG stocks 2 Staples food price control Signed Negative for listed FMCG stocks 3 "IDR2/plastic bag" tax regulation being revoked Signed Positive for listed retail stocks 4 Halal certification on all F&B products Plan Positive for listed consumer stocks 5 Possible ban on sugar imports Plan Negative for MYOR 6 Tax on drinks with added sugar Plan Negative for ICBP, KLBF and SIDO 7 Excise tax on plastic packaging Plan Negative for consumer sector No. Currency related Status Impact 1 25% hedge for net short-term foreign liabilities Signed Negative due to higher hedging costs 2 Lowering fx purchase without underlying limit to USD25, Plan Lowering chance on currency speculation 3 Lower SBI holiday period to 1 week Signed Trigger capitalization 4 Lower tax rate to -1% for exporters Signed Improve IDR stability No. Health-care Status Impact 1 Coordination of Benefit Signed Positive for hospitals and pharmaceuticals 2 Private hospitals to accept BPJS patients Plan Negative due to lower expected margins 3 List of standard tariff for each healthcare service Signed Negative for hospitals 4 Pharmaceutical sector to be opened to foreigners with Jokowi calling for lower px Plan Negative for KLBF, TSPC, SIDO and KAEF 5 Retail price ceiling on 535 generic drugs Signed Negative for pharmaceuticals and hospitals No. Infrastructure Status Impact 1 Putting a time limit on project permit process Signed Positive for the construction sector 2 IDR347tn infra spending in the 217 State Budget Signed Positive for the construction sector 3 Infrastructure & construction holding Plan Positive for the construction sector 4 Tax amnesty program Signed Positive for the construction sector No. Media Status Impact 1 Govt. launched a set of fintech regulations; Capping foreign ownership of fintech business of 2% Signed Mitigate fraud in financial-technology business 2 TV and radio cigarette ads banned in Indonesia Plan Negative for SCMA and MNCN on lower ad spend 3 1 broadcasting right owned by 1 person/entity Signed Negative for media companies No. Metal Status Impact 1 Nickel royalties to be reduced to 2% Signed Minimal impact for INCO (already paying 2%), positive impact for ANTM (4%) 2 foreign-owned business must divest stakes to local Indonesian citizens after 5 years of production Signed Negative impact for INCO and many foreign nickel companies 3 Government to provide incentives to IUP and IUPK holders Signed Positive impact for the industry, negative impact for mining companies on growing competition Permits for mining companies to export ores on smelter development (minimum Positive for lower nickel grade producers currently building smelters, Signed 4 3%) like ANTM 5 2% ore export tax Signed Negative for ANTM 6 Requirement to submit mine location for refined tins Signed Positive impact for Tins, allowing reduced illegal mining 7 Standardized tin content & packaging (non-ingots) Signed TINS: limited impact; reducing illegal mining Foreign ownership divestment: Up to 51% for unintegrated miners; <51% for 8 integrated miners; no divestment for smelters/refineries Signed Limited impact for INCO as the company is already in compliance 9 Local trading and higher tin content for tin exports Signed Positive impact for TINS, as prices are higher despite lower volumes 1 Mining holding (INALUM) Plan Minimal impact for TINS and positive for ANTM, due to easier access for joint ventures or other mining projects No. Oil & gas Status Impact OPEC to cut oil production by 1.4 mbopd Regulation on maximum USD6/mmbtu gas price Signed Plan Positive for oil and gas producing companies such as MEDC and PGAS, negative for companies with high fuel costs Most negative impact for PGAS, but positive impact for industries with high gas usage, like steel and petrochemicals Gas prices to be max at USD6/mmbtu for poultry, steel and petrochemical sectors Signed Positive impact on KRAS, negative impact on PGAS One price policy for subsidized fuel, efffective January 217 Signed Limited impact for covered oil companies, negative impact for Pertamina 8

81 217 Compendium 5 Rights for private sector to sell fuel to consumers as long as oil refineries are built Signed Positive impact for AKRA as the company is targetting retail distribution 6 Review on cost recovery regulation for oil miners Plan Positive impact for MEDC, if cost can be recovered in early years 9 Oil and gas exploration taxes removed Signed Positive for MEDC and PGAS, allowing for higher earnings 1 Energy holding Plan Positive for PGAS, on less competition from Pertagas 11 Higher margins for businesses to build fuel stations in isolated areas Signed Minimal impact for companies covered 12 Tenders to be bid, not set by officials Signed Positive impact for PGAS and MEDC to gain higher margins 13 Abandonment and Site Restoration (ASR) Plan Minimal impact for companies covered 14 Permit simplification and extend explorations permit to 1 years Signed Positive for ELSA and MEDC as the companies prefer longer permit, but may increase competition No. Plantations Status Impact 1 Acceleration of issue time for cultivating rights certificates to 9 days Plan Neutral for all planters under coverage 2 State-owned sugar mill revitalization Plan Neutral for TBLA 3 Refined sugar for retail market Plan Positive for TBLA 4 Cooking oil price ceiling Plan Negative for SIMP and TBLA 5 Sugar price ceiling Plan Neutral for TBLA 6 Sugar price floor Signed Positive for TBLA 7 Increase peat land plantation Plan Positive for all planters under coverage 8 CPO Supporting Fund: export levies Signed Neutral for all planters under coverage 9 Revision of forest conversion permit for sugarcane plantation Plan Negative for TBLA 1 B2 biodiesel mandatory program Signed Positive for all planters under coverage 11 Refined sugar import license moratorium Signed Positive for TBLA 12 Limit foreign investment Signed Positive for all planters under coverage No. Poultry Status Impact 1 GPS (Grand Parent Stock) import quota Signed Positive for all poultry players covered 2 Poultry supply and demand monitoring Signed Positive for all poultry players covered 3 DOC price floor Plan Positive for all poultry players covered 4 1 Slaughterhouse for every 5k broiler weekly production capacity Plan Negative for MAIN 5 5% broiler produces must be sold to independent farmers at a fair price Plan Negative for all poultry players covered 6 Corn import restriction & farmer's floor price control Signed Negative for all poultry players covered No. Property Status Impact 1 2 Lower income tax (PPh) for land building transfers fee to 2.5% from 5% previously Signed Positive for all property developers Revised tax thresholds for luxury properties, including houses and apartments. Lower PPh22 signed effective 3 May 215/higher PPNBM to >IDR2bn (non strata) &>IDR1bn (strata) effective 4 Dec 215. Signed Neg. for all property developers 3 Government to impose 1% income tax for boarding-house Plan Positive for all property developers 4 Taxable value of property (NJOP) increase Plan Negative for all property developers 5 PPh and BPHTB reduction to.5% and 1% for REIT investment Signed Positive for the likes of LPKR & CTRA Elimination of land and building taxes for 1st homes, raise 2nd homes; eliminate Positive for APLN & CTRA, negative for the likes of PWON, CTRP Signed 6 land and building certification fees in Jakarta & LPKR 7 Government to collect land banks for low-cost housing Plan Negative for PPRO, APLN and CTRA Positive for all property developers, benefit CTRP, DILD & LPKR Transfer of property rights for foreigners Signed 8 most Foreigners allowed to purchase properties from secondary & primary markets Positive for all property developers, benefit CTRP, DILD & LPKR Signed 9 (landed: >IDR1bn, strata-title: >IDR5bn) most Easing foreigners to own luxury houses and apartments (including non-resident 1 foreigners) Signed Positive, to benefit CTRP & DILD most 11 Allowance of mixed titles within one building Signed Positive for all property developers 12 Relaxation of residential balanced regulation Plan Positive for all property developers 13 Easing of land license permit for low-cost housing Plan Positive for PPRO, APLN and CTRA 14 New public housing savings regulation (Tapera) (3% of total monthly income) Plan Negative for all property developers 15 Tightening regulations on regional building standard Plan Negative for all property developers 16 Relaxation of LTV regulation (1st mortgage: 15%, 2nd: 2%, 3rd: 25%) Signed Positive for all property developers 17 Mortgages based on % completion for 2nd homes Signed Neg. for high apt. exposures like APLN, CTRP & DILD 18 Right-to-use property is allowed for mortgage collateral Signed Positive for all property developers 19 Allowance of tax amnesty repatriated funds to be invested in the real sectors Signed Positive for all property developers, benefit CTRP, DILD & LPKR most 2 Moratorium on malls in Jakarta Signed Positive for PWON, LPKR & APLN 21 Factory relocation into industrial estates (by 22) Signed Positive for all industrial estate players Source: Bahana No. Retail Status Impact 1 3% local contents for imported 4G cellphones Signed Most negative for ERAA 2 Allow 67% foreign holding in department stores with 4-2,sqm of floor space Signed Negative for all department stores 3 Allow 49% foreign holding in e-commerce Signed Mild negative for RALS, ACES 4 Restriction on direct distribution from wholesalers to retailers Signed Mild positive for AMRT and MDRN 5 Credit card usage monitoring by tax office Revoked Negative for MAPI, ACES, LPPF 6 Paid plastic bag rule (IDR2/bag) Revoked Limited positive for low mid retailers 7 One zone one minimarket Plan Most negative for MDRN and AMRT 8 Import duty increase for consumer goods Signed Most negative for ACES and MAPI 9 Imported goods must be less than 2% of inventory Signed Most negative for RANC 1 Max 15 privately owned outlets the rest franchised Signed Most negative for MDRN and AMRT 11 Minimarkets not to sell category A alcoholic bev. Signed Most negative for MDRN and AMRT No. Shipping Status Impact 1 Digital port billing system Signed Positive for TMAS 2 Development of maritime holding company Plan Positive for all shipping companies 3 Deregulation on 2 laws Plan Positive for all shipping companies 4 Zero tax on O&G exploration phase Plan Positive for WINS 5 Acceleration of new seaports constructions Plan Positive for TMAS 6 Possible higher tax on revenues Cancelled Positive for all shipping companies No. SOE Status Impact Negative for BBRI (57%), PGAS (57%), ADHI (51%), PTPP Government to increase ownerships in SOEs Plan 1 (51%), SMGR (51%) and TLKM (53%) No. Telco Status Impact 1 Lower interconnection rates Plan Negative for TLKM 2 Network sharing plans Plan Negative for TLKM 3 Additional 2% luxury goods tax for mobile phones Plan Negative for the sector 4 Obligation to build local factory for cellular makers Signed Negative for ERAA and TELE No. Toll roads Status Impact 1 1% VAT hike on toll roads for private vehicles Plan Negative for JSMR % toll-road tariffs dicount around Lebaran period Signed Negative for JSMR No. Tobacco Status Impact 1 Double VAT (2% from 8.7% current) on tobacco products Plan Negative for HMSP and GGRM 2 Tobacco price control at farmer's level Plan Negative for HMSP and GGRM 3 Gov't subsidized rehabilitation for tobacco-related diseases Plan Positive for HMSP and GGRM 4 TV and radio cigarette advertisement ban in Indonesia Plan Negative for HMSP and GGRM 5 Outdoor tobacco and alcohol advertisement ban in Jakarta Signed Negative for HMSP and GGRM 6 Pictorial health warnings on cigarette packaging Signed Negative for HMSP and GGRM No. Land transportation Status Impact 1 Prohibiton of LCGC utilization for online taxis Plan Positive for BIRD and TAXI 2 Allowance of MPV for taxi utilization Signed Positive for BIRD and TAXI 3 Lower taxi base fare and flag fall tariff Signed Negative for BIRD and TAXI No. Media 1 Taxing on the media platforms Plan Positive for SCMA and MNCN 2 1-Year TV license renewal Signed Positive for SCMA,MNCN & VIVA 3 Auctioning of license from analogue to digital Plan Positive for SCMA,MNCN & VIVA No. Tourism Status Impact Free entry visas for 169 countries Signed Positive for GIAA and PANR Establishment of 1 village economy halls in 1 tourism destinations Plan Positive for GIAA and PANR Indonesia's 1 champion tourism development Signed Positive for GIAA and PANR Allowance of loading-unloading cruise passengers in Indonesia's 5 major ports Signed Positive for PANR Increased budget for tourism campaign Signed Positive for GIAA and PANR 81

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83 217 Compendium INDONESIAN MARKETS 83

84 217 Compendium Weakened on Trump effect The Trump effect has come out of left field to adversely impact positive inflows stemming from the government s tax amnesty. Although we currently still have IDR25.4tn of net foreign inflow ytd, about IDR9tn in net foreign outflow has occurred on the back of the Trump election win. The recent changes show that the 6M bond yield spread reached the highest among the bonds due to US inflation expectation. Currently, due to the Trump effect, the foreign ownership in bonds has come down to 37.2% from 38.4% in early November. Additionally, the gap between ID to US 1yr bond yield has started to decrease. Foreign equity capital flows in JCI, 215-YTD November 216 (IDRtn) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8) (9) (1) (11) (12) (.2) (1.6) (5.4) (5.9) (3.5) (4.1) (.1) (9.8) (7.2) (4.7) (3.3) (1.4) (2.3) (4.1) (2.3) (.3) (.2) (8.8) (11.9) (12.9) Jan-15 Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 (3.3) (1.5) (7.5) as of 23 November 216 Government bond-yield curve (%) (bps) ID govt bond foreign ownership & ID to US 1yr yield gap (bps) (%) M 6M 1Y 2Y 3Y 4Y 5Y 7Y 8Y 9Y 1Y 15Y 2Y 25Y 3Y Aug-16 6-Sep Sep Sep-16 9-Oct-16 2-Oct Oct Nov Nov change in yield w-w (bps RHS) -1 day -1 week Foreign position in ID Govn Bond (RHS), Bahana Indonesia to US 1yr yield gap (LHS) 84

85 217 Compendium IDR stability: 5% external, 5% internal The IDR movements continue to be dependent on the Fed rate hike expectations, both in terms of magnitude and frequency. Internally, FX reserves and CAD should continue to be important determinants of the IDR, with the 216 median estimate at IDR13,3/1USD (Bahana: IDR13,5). Despite Trump, the IDR remains the second best performing currency in the region ytd. In absolute as well as in USD terms, Indonesia is now the third best performing market in the region ytd. Consensus forecasts on regional currencies Current F 216F 216F 217F Appreciation rate per End End End End End Potential (%) Country Currency 1USD Low Median High Median Philippines PHP (.3) Malaysia MYR Thailand THB (2.) Singapore SGD (.6) India INR Indonesia IDR 13,483 13,788 12,8 13,3 13,9 13, (1.) Taiwan TWD (.4) (3.5) Korea KRW 1,176 1,175 1,55 1,173 1,255 1,2.3 (2.) as of 23 November 216 Various stock market performances Stock market YTD YTD in USD 215 Stock market YTD YTD in USD 215 Asia Last (%) (%) (%) Others Last (%) (%) (%) SET (Thailand) 1, (5.3) IBOV (Brazil) 61, VNI (Vietnam) RTSI (Russia) 1, IDX (Indonesia) 5, (2.) S&P/TSX (Toronto) 15, TWSE (Taiwan) 9, (6.7) Dow Jones (USA) 19, (2.2) Hang Seng (HK) 22, (7.2) ASX (Australia) 3, Nikkei (Japan) 18,163 (3.4) S&P 5 (USA) 2, (.7) KOSPI (Korea) 1, NZSE (New Zealand) 1, STI (Singapore) 2,84 (.8) (1.7) (7.8) Nasdaq (USA) 5, SENSEX (India) 26,52.8 (2.8) (.3) DAX (Germany) 1,662 (.4) (3.2) 19.8 PCOMP (Phil.) 6,837 (.9) (6.8).8 CAC 4 (France) 4,529 (1.9) (4.7) 18.8 KLCI (Mal.) 1,63 (3.9) (7.2) 14.7 SMI (Swiss) 7,752 (1.6) (7.4) (1.1) SHENZHEN (China) 2,13 (7.8) (13.9) 67.6 MADX (Madrid) 869 (9.6) (12.4) 2.8 SHCOMP (China) 3,241 (7.8) (14.) 13.9 FTSE 1 (UK) 3,839 (4.4) (2.) 6.5 as of 23 November 216, Bahana USD performance relative to other currencies Asia exc. Japan currencies YTD 215 Other currencies YTD 215 TWD (Taiwan) 3.1 (3.7) BRL (Brazil) 16.8 (32.9) IDR (Indonesia) 2.3 (1.2) RUB (Russia) 12.8 (16.3) THB (Thailand).9 (8.7) JPY (Japan) 6.8 (.4) HKD (Hong Kong) (.1).1 CAD (Canada) 2.6 (16.) KRW (Korea) (.1) (7.2) NZD (New Zealand) 2.6 (12.4) VND (Vietnam) (.2) (4.9) AUD (Australia) 1.3 (1.8) SGD (Singapore) (.9) (6.6) EUR (EU) (2.8) (1.2) MYR (Malaysia) (3.4) (18.6) TRY (Turkey) (14.1) (2.) INR (India) (3.5) (4.7) GBP (UK) (15.6) (5.4) PHP (Philippines) (5.9) (4.7) MXN (Mexico) (16.6) (14.3) CNY (China) (6.1) (4.4) ARS (Argentina) (16.8) (34.5) as of 23 November 216, Bahana 85

86 217 Compendium Impact from weaker IDR Based on our sensitivity analysis, each 1% IDR depreciation would lower the EPS of our covered stocks by.9% overall. Thus, IDR depreciation is bad for the market. In general, IDR weakness should hurt corporates with large USD cost and debt. Sector wise, we see negative impact on Poultry and Property. A stronger dollar, however, may spell good news for dollar earners, although some of this positive impact would be offset by weaker commodity prices. JCI index vs. IDR currency (JCI) 5,6 5,4 5,2 5, 4,8 4,6 4,4 4,2 12,3 12,6 12,9 13,2 13,5 13,8 14,1 14,4 14,7 4, 23-Nov 23-Dec 23-Jan 23-Feb 23-Mar 23-Apr 23-May 23-Jun 23-Jul 23-Aug 23-Sep 23-Oct 23-Nov as of 23 November 216, Bahana JCI index USDIDR Recent IDR depreciation is inline with market weakness (IDR/1USD) IDR depreciation: Sensitivity analysis Non-IDR 9M16 Sensitivity Non-IDR 9M16 Sensitivity Net to net profit Net to net profit Ticker Sales Cost Cash Debt Ticker Sales Cost Cash Debt gearing on 1% IDR gearing on 1% IDR (%) (USDmn) (%) Depreciation (%) (%) (USDmn) (%) Depreciation (%) MSKY (2.) BSDE (.9) SMCB (18.6) SMBR nc (.7) LPKR (12.2) SMGR nc (.7) VIVA (12.) CSAP (.7) BMTR (11.) PWON (.7) MAPI (1.) ASII , (.7) IMAS (8.4) CTRA (.7) MPPA (7.4) SMRA (.6) JPFA (6.7) CTRP (.5) PPRO (6.7) HMSP nc (.4) ASRI (6.) LPPF. 25. nc (.3) KIJA (5.8) GGRM (.3) KAEF nc (5.4) WTON (.3) ASSA (5.4) SIDO nc (.2) DILD (5.3) TBIG.. 2 1, KLBF nc (5.2) SCMA nc. CPIN (5.2) JSMR KINO (5.1) WSKT MAIN (5.) ERAA SOCI (4.5) TLKM BEST (4.4) LPCK nc.2 INDF (3.9) ANTM TELE (3.7) WIKA EXCL (3.6) TOWR KRAS (3.4) PTPP RALS nc (3.2) SSIA TSPC nc (3.2) ADHI TAXI (3.1) DMAS nc 1.5 MNCN (3.) MEDC ICBP nc (2.9) INCO nc 1.6 MYOR (2.9) PGAS ,99 2, ACES nc (2.6) AKRA ROTI (2.2) SRIL BIRD (2.1) GIAA ISAT (2.) TINS LINK nc (2.) ITMG na nc 2.3 WSBP. 4. nc (1.9) PSAB TMAS (1.7) TBLA INTP (1.6) LSIP nc 2.8 UNVR (1.5) AALI SILO (1.4) ADRO , MIKA nc (1.2) UNTR nc 3.2 TOTL nc (1.1) SGRO JCI* ,6 17, (.9) SIMP MSKY (2.) BSDE (.9) SMCB (18.6) SMBR nc (.7) LPKR (12.2) SMGR nc (.7) Source: IDX, companies, Bahana *Excluding MSKY 86

87 217 Compendium Currency volatility: Top 5 winners, losers & safe havens Plantation companies are benefitting from the weaker IDR against USD with an average 5% increase in EPS growth for every 1% IDR depreciation. Infrastructure-related companies are considered to be the safe haven against currency volatility with minimal impact on EPS growth. Winners (%) Media companies are losers of a weaker IDR due to their sizeable amounts of USD debt in their balance sheets. Worth noting: for pay TV companies about 4% of opex (foreign content) and 6% of capex (set up boxes) are USD linked Source: Bahana SIMP WINS PTBA SGRO UNTR Safe Haven (%) Losers (%).1.1 (5) (18.6) (12.2) (12.) (11.) (1) (15)... TBIG SCMA JSMR WSKT ERAA Source: Bahana (2) (2.) (25) MSKY SMCB LPKR VIVA BMTR Source: Bahana 87

88 Signs from the real sector #1 Consumer confidence index (point) Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 98 Average: Q Q Q Q Compendium Car sales (` units) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec SSSG - Retail (%) average: 8% Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 SSSG (%, LHS) (based on MAPI, RALS and LPPF) Source: Gaikindo Motorcycles sales (` units) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Gaikindo 88

89 217 Compendium Signs from the real sector #2 Cement sales, quarterly Heavy equipment sales (` tons) 19, 18, 17, 16, 15, 14, 13, 15,542 13,624 16,499 14,23 16,933 18,88 15,229 Average: 14,855 (%) 1 - (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 13 (58) 9 (22) (7) (16) Average: (11) 9 12, 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Cement Sales (` tons, LHS) Source: Indonesian Cement Association (ASI), CEIC, Bahana Infrastructure spending trend (6) 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Growth y-y (%, LHS) Source: United Tractors Property marketing sales, quarterly (IDRtn) F 217F Government budget in infrastructure (IDRtn, LHS) (IDRtn) Average: Q12 2Q12 3Q13 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 Property sales quarterly (IDRtn, LHS) Source: CEIC, Bloomberg Source: Company, Bahana 89

90 Signs from the real sector #3 Oil Compendium 9 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov'14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 Jul'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16 Oct'16 Nov'16 (USD/bbl) Oil (USD/barrel, LHS) Average: 66 Coal Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 Jul'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16 Oct'16 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov'14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Feb'15 Mar'15 Nov'16 CPO 1, Average: (USD/lmt) Average: 65 Coal (USD/mt, LHS) Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov'14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 Jul'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16 Oct'16 Nov'16 (USD/mt) CPO (USD/mt, LHS) Sugar Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 Jul'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16 Oct'16 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov'14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Feb'15 Nov'16 (USD/mt) Average: 348 Sugar (USD/mt, LHS)

91 Signs from the real sector #4 Rice (USD/mt) Average: Compendium 91 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov'14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 Jul'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16 Oct'16 Nov'16 Rice (USD/mt, LHS) Corn Average: Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 Jul'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16 Oct'16 Nov'16 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov'14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Coffee (USD/mt) 5, 4,5 4,476 4, 3,5 Average: 3,296 3,589 3, 3,569 2,5 2,675 2, (USD/mt) Corn (USD/mt, LHS) Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov'14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 Jul'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16 Oct'16 Nov'16 Coffee (USD/mt, LHS) Cocoa 3,327 3,4 2,955 3,3 3,27 3,2 3, 2,8 2,761 2,6 2,493 2,4 Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 Jul'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16 Oct'16 Nov'16 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov'14 Dec'14 Jan'15 (USD/mt) Average: 3,3 Cocoa (USD/mt, LHS)

92 Signs from the real sector #5 Gold 1,4 1,35 1,326 1,3 1,287 1,284 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,5 1, 1,142 1,233 1,351 1, Compendium 92 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov'14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 Jul'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16 Oct'16 Nov'16 (USD/toz) Gold (USD/toz, LHS) Average: 1,223 Silver Average: Oct'16 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov'14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 Jul'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16 Nov'16 Tin 25, 23,54 23, 21, 21,875 19, 17, 16,3 15, 13, 16,7 2,955 (USD/toz) Silver (USD/toz, LHS) Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov'14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 Jul'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16 Oct'16 Nov'16 (USD/mt) Tins (USD/mt, LHS) Average: 18,51 Nickel 2, 18, 16, 14, 12, 1, 8, 19,25 16,275 13,95 1,6 11,33 Oct'16 Jan'14 Feb'14 Mar'14 Apr'14 May'14 Jun'14 Jul'14 Aug'14 Sep'14 Oct'14 Nov'14 Dec'14 Jan'15 Feb'15 Mar'15 Apr'15 May'15 Jun'15 Jul'15 Aug'15 Sep'15 Oct'15 Nov'15 Dec'15 Jan'16 Feb'16 Mar'16 Apr'16 May'16 Jun'16 Jul'16 Aug'16 Sep'16 Nov'16 (USD/mt) Average: 12,77 Nickel (USD/mt, LHS)

93 217 Compendium Sectors Ranked by ytd performance: First Metals: Helped by China s improving demand outlook and severe underperformance in 215. Coal: Support stemming from supply reduction in China as a result of China limiting its coal-working period to 276 days. Poultry: Recent adverse impact of weaker IDR on the sector has offset some positive benefits from easing oversupply condition allowing for higher DOC and broiler prices. Metals sector: relative performance (%) (%) (2) (4) (22.8) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 Metals sector relative to JCI (2) (4) Coal sector: relative performance (%) (%) Poultry sector: relative performance (%) (%) (2) (4) (19.7) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 Coal sector relative to JCI (2) (4) (2) (4) (4.4) (4.7) (19.5) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 Poultry sector relative to JCI (2) (4) 93

94 217 Compendium Sectors Ranked by ytd performance: Second Automotive: Beneficiary of lower interest rates. Plantations: Helped by positive CPO price outlook on low inventory levels in both Malaysia and Indonesia, the 2 major producers. Automotive sector: relative performance (%) (%) Telco: Recent underperformance due to possible price war in areas outside of Java. 5 (5) (1) 5 (.6) (5) (5.2) (7.8) (1) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 Automotive sector relative to JCI Plantations sector: relative performance (%) (%) (5) (5) Telco sector: relative performance (%) (%) (1) (1) (15) (15) (2) (2) (25) (23.) (25) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 Plantations sector relative to JCI (5) (3.1) (5.) (1) (8.1) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 Telco sector relative to JCI (5) (1) 94

95 217 Compendium Sectors Ranked by ytd performance: Third Consumer staples: Hurt by recent trend to shift into higher beta stocks and concerns over higher commodity prices applying margin pressures. Tourism: Mainly dragged down by Garuda Indonesia as it suffers from recent higher oil prices. Banks: Concerns on slow loan growth, higher-than-expected NPLs and provisions still remain. Tourism sector: relative performance (%) (%) (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) (35) (1.) (9.1) (2.3) (31.3) (19.3) (3.8) (29.4) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) (35) Consumer staples sector: relative performance (%) (%) (5) (1.8) (2.2) (5) (4.2) (1) (1) (15) (11.) (13.3) (15) (2) (2) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 Consumer staples sector relative to JCI Banks sector: relative performance (%) (%) (2) (4) (3.) (6) (5.6) (2) (5.9) (8) (4) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 Tourism sector relative to JCI Banks sector relative to JCI 95

96 217 Compendium Sectors Ranked by ytd performance: Fourth Property: Lower interest rates, LTV relaxation and tax amnesty have not managed to offset weak marketing sales. Infrastructure: Mainly dragged down by Jasa Marga, which suffered from concerns over the low inflationary outlook hurting its CPI-based toll tariff increases. Property sector: relative performance (%) (%) Consumer retail: Due to shifting in Lebaran period to 2Q (previous: 3Q), the sector suffered from weak 3Q performance. (5) (6.4) (2.7) (3.6) (5) (1) (9.1) (9.7) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 (1) Property sector relative to JCI, ex. PPRO Infrastructure sector: relative performance (%) (%) (2) (2) (4) (4) (6) (5.2) (6) (8) (6.5) (8) (1) (1) (12) (9.9) (12) (14) (12.4) (14) (13.6) (13.9) (16) (16) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 Infrastructure-related sector relative to JCI Consumer retail sector: relative performance (%) (%) (5) (5) (1) (6.5) (9.6) (8.2) (1) (11.8) (12.2) (12.7) (15) (15) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 Consumer retail sector relative to JCI 96

97 217 Compendium Sectors Ranked by ytd performance: Fifth Industrial estates: Concerns on current and prospective tenants willingness to move/invest in cheaper labor areas with lower land ASPs (e.g. Central and East Java). Industrial estates sector: relative performance (%) (%) (2) (1.6) (2) Oil-related: Recent outperformance due to OPEC s decision to curtail production output. (4) (6) (4.1) (3.3) (4) (6) (8) (8) Consumer media: Suffering from lower growth in adex which is mainly fueled by the lower economic growth and purchasing power. (1) (8.5) (1) (12) (11.5) (12.) (12.) (12) (14) (14) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 Industrial estate sector relative to JCI Oil-related sector: relative performance (%) (%) Consumer media sector: relative performance (%) (%) (5) (3.2) (5) (5) (1.8) (5) (1) (6.) (8.3) (7.4) (1) (1) (15) (1.6) (13.9) (6.6) (1) (15) (15) (2) (21.6) (15) (2) (2) (25) (19.) (21.1) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 (2) (25) (25) (3) (25.1) (26.2) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 (25) (3) Oil-related sector relative to JCI Consumer media relative to JCI 97

98 217 Compendium Sectors Ranked by ytd performance: Last Shipping: Negative sentiment due to lower freight rates and government concerns on high logistic costs. Shipping sector: relative performance (%) (%) (5) (5) Cement: Concerns on price wars and over-capacity hurting the sector. (1) (8.1) (8.3) (1) Transportation: The taxi industry has been hurt by decreased demand on weak purchasing power and lower utilization rates on intensifying online mobile-based competition. (15) (2) (25) (15.5) (16.8) (17.8) (15) (2) (25) (3) (3.7) (27.2) (3) (35) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 (35) Cement sector: relative performance (%) (%) (5) (5) (1) (1) (1.4) (9.8) (15) (15) (2) (17.4) (17.2) (2) (25) (25) (3) (3) (35) (31.5) (35) (4) (4) (45) (42.9) (42.1) (45) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 Shipping sector relative to JCI Transportation sector: relative performance (%) (%) (4.1) (1) (1) (2) (17.7) (16.1) (2) (3) (4) (27.4) (3) (4) (5) (5) (6) (55.1) (53.8) (58.8) (6) (7) (7) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 215 Cement sector relative to JCI Transportation sector relative to JCI, ex. SMBR 98

99 217 Compendium 3Q16 results review: The good, the bad & the ugly Stocks in our coverage overall booked 3Q16 operating-profit growth of 7.1% y-y, compared to 8.6% y-y in 3Q15 with net-profit growth of 17.7% y-y, vs. a 8.3% y-y decline in 3Q15. The strong rebound in the 3Q16 bottom line was mainly supported by FX gains on a stronger IDR. CPO, poultry, telco, staples, and infra related sectors were the best performing in 3Q16, while cement and coal were the worst. Market performance (%) Operating profit y-y growth Net profit y-y growth 3Q15 3Q16 3Q15 3Q16 Bahana universe (8.3) 17.7 Source: Company, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates The good Operating profit y-y growth Net profit y-y growth 3Q15 3Q16 3Q15 3Q16 Plantations (43.8) 42.3 na na Poultry Telco-related Staples (1.3) 23.3 Infra related Source: Company, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates The bad Operating and net profit growth, 3Q14-3Q16 Operating profit y-y growth Net profit y-y growth Q15 3Q16 3Q15 3Q16 Metals (42.3) (17.) (69.7) 56.3 Oil-related (27.5) (5.5) (66.3) 47.8 Property 16.8 (25.) (61.) 46.2 Automotive (2.2) (4.2) (22.9) 19. Banks Discre (2.1) (8.8) (34.2) 6.5 Source: Company, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates, The ugly (5) (.7) (5.7) Operating profit y-y growth Net profit y-y growth 3Q14 3Q15 3Q14 3Q15 (1) (8.2) (7.7) (8.3) (8.5) Cement (21.1) (14.1) (33.7) (7.8) Coal related 26.1 (17.4) 46.2 (22.) Source: Company, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates (15) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16F 2Q16 3Q16 Net profit Opt profit Source: Companies, Bahana estimates 99

100 217 Compendium 4Q16 preview round-up: The good, the bad & the ugly For the market as a whole, we expect operating performance to be weaker in 4Q16, although we expect net profit to accelerate from 2.7% in 4Q15 to 7.% in 4Q16. This improved bottom line performance is mainly pushed by commodity-related sectors such as metals, oil and coal, as their losses should rapidly reverse on higher prices. On the flip side, we expect property, cement and banks to perform the worst in 4Q16 at both the operating and net profit levels on continued tough operating conditions. However, we do expect this to reverse on expectations of an improving economic outlook in 217. Market performance (%) Operating profit y-y growth Net profit y-y growth 4Q15 4Q16F 4Q15 4Q16F Bahana universe 8.2 (1.7) The good Operating profit y-y growth Net profit y-y growth 4Q15 4Q16F 4Q15 4Q16F Metals na na (1,446.) na Oil-related (23.4) 3.3 na na Coal-related (15.7) 89.1 na na Automotive (17.6) (.1) (36.6) 74. Infra-related Discretionary Staples Source: Company, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates The bad Operating profit y-y growth Net profit y-y growth 4Q15 4Q16F 4Q15 4Q16F Poultry (1.6) Telco-related (22.6) Source: Company, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates The ugly Operating profit y-y growth Net profit y-y growth 4Q15 4Q16F 4Q15 4Q16F Plantations (33.) (31.5) (27.3) 1.8 Banks 1. (29.3) 4.9 (26.5) Cement (17.2) (28.9) (4.3) (27.5) Property (18.3) (22.2) (23.7) (48.1) Source: Company, Bloomberg, Bahana estimates Operating and net profit growth, 1Q14-4Q16F (.7) 1.2 (5.7) 2.7 (1.7) (5) (1) (8.2) (7.7) (8.3) (8.5) (15) 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16F 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16F Net profit Opt profit Source: Companies, Bahana estimates 1

101 217 Compendium Market valuation: More reasonable On valuation, Indonesia is currently the most expensive market in the region, although if we strip out both Sampoerna (HMSP) and Unilever (UNVR), the two most expensive stocks in our coverage, the PER becomes more reasonable, more at par with India s. We expect 217F EPS growth to reach 19.8% y-y, above the regional average of 12.5% y-y growth. However, excluding metals, ASII and BMRI, our EPS growth would fall to 15.6% y-y, compared to 12.8% in 218. In terms of PEG, market valuation appears attractive at a 217 PEG of.8x. Excluding UNVR & HMSP, our 217F PEG would further decrease to.7x. Regional P/E comparison, 217F (x) Average**: Indonesia Philippines Malaysia Indonesia* India Thailand China Singapore Hong Kong South Korea as of 23 November 216, Bahana *excluding UNVR and HMSP **excluding Indonesia* Regional EPS growth comparison, 217F (%) 3 Regional PEG comparison, 217F (x) Average**: 12.5 % Average**: 1.5x India Indonesia Indonesia* South Korea China Thailand Hong Kong Philippines Malaysia Singapore. Singapore Malaysia Philippines Thailand Hong Kong China Indonesia Indonesia* South Korea India as of 23 November 216, Bahana *excluding Metals, ASII & BMRI **excluding Indonesia as of 23 November 216, Bahana *excluding UNVR and HMSP **excluding Indonesia* 11

102 217 Compendium 217 Index target: 6,; Sector and stocks: A mixed bag With the Trump effect, we lower our end-217 index target from 6,6 to 6, on a higher market risk premium, and weaker IDR assumption. Our indext target reflects expansion in line with our 217 EPS growth of 15.6%, as discussed, excluding extraordinary earnings At this stage, our top picks are a mixed bag of stocks: a combination of defensives and high beta stocks. On the defensive front, we prefer stocks which are relatively immune towards IDR gyrations such as HMSP and TLKM. We also like ICBP due to its ability to raise prices of its instant noodles to safeguard margins. We overweight interest rate sensitive sectors like automotive, banks, property, construction and consumer discretionary (i.e. retailers and media), as Indonesia s economic upturn is well insulated against external volatilities, mainly driven by domestic consumption and growth in infrastructure. On a more negative note, we have cut consumer staples to NEUTRAL on margin pressure due to the weaker IDR as well as higher commodity prices. Sectoral rating summary, 217F Operating growth EPS growth (y-y Rating PER (x) (%) %) OW N UW Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Bahana Cons. Automotive Banks Cement (1.6) (4.6) Coal related Infra related Consumer-staples Consumer-discre Healthcare Industrial estates Media Metal mining Oil and gas Plantations Poultry (2.8) 13.4 (3.2) Property Shipping Telcos Tourism (31.9) 5.4 (296.9) Transportation as of 23 November 216, Bahana estimates Favored stocks (1 Stocks), 217F Stock Mkt cap. Price TP Upside EPS growth P/E P/BV Yield ROAE YTD perf. (USDm) (IDR) (IDR) (%) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%) (%) HMSP 33,94 3,93 4, TLKM 29,456 3,94 5, ASII 23,345 7,775 1, BMRI 18,863 1,9 12, ICBP 7,59 8,775 1, UNTR 6,59 21,9 26, SCMA 2,581 2,38 3, (23.2) CTRA 1,636 1,435 1, (1.1) WIKA 1,156 2,372 3, RALS 642 1,22 1, as of 23 November 216, Bahana estimates Market data 15A 16F 17F 18F Operating profit growth (%) EPS growth (%) (8.1) EPS growth** (%) (15.9) P/E (x) P/E* (x) PEG (x) (2.7) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) P/BV (x) exc. UNVR & LPPF Div. yield (%) Net gearing (%) ROE (%) ROA (%) ROIC (%) as of 23 November 215, Bahana estimates, *excluding HMSP & UNVR **excluding Metals, ASII & BMRI 12

103 217 Compendium 217 technical perspective: A year of recovery Going into 217, we see strong support for the JCI at the 4,9 level and then 4,5 with resistance levels at 5,5 and 5,9. Note that in 215 the JCI crumbled from the Fed rate reaching its lowest level in September 215. This fall marked around a 27% drop from its high, similar to that in 213 (down 27% from its highest level). On the currency front, we expect movements in 217 to be between a Fibonacci retracement of 5% (IDR13, level) and 23.6% (IDR13,9). JCI historical chart 211 EU Quantitative Easing 28 US Crisis 213 US Tappering 215 Fed Rate Hike 216 Fed Rate Hike JCI 216 chart Local currency 215 chart, Bahana estimates, Bahana estimates 13

104 217 Compendium Sector coverage by rating Source: Bahana Stock coverage by rating UNDERWEIGHT 11% NEUTRAL 47% OVERWEIGHT 42% Stock under coverage and as a % of JCI, (Stocks) (%) Stocks Bahana / JCI market cap Source: Bahana\ Bahana coverage turnover vs. JCI turnover, 11M16 (USDmn) (%) REDUCE 14% HOLD 14% BUY 72% M16 65 Bahana turnover Bahana turnover / JCI turnover Source: Bahana Source: Bahana 14

105 217 Compendium SECTOR 15

106 217 Compendium AUTOMOTIVE OVERWEIGHT Given the increased purchasing power due to likely higher GDP growth, improved liquidity on lower rates and the tax amnesty program, we expect a recovering auto sector in 217 with volume growth of 6% y-y to 1.1mn units for 4W, and 3% y-y to 6.3mn units for 2W. A strong IDR and manageable discount levels should also benefit the sector. On ASII, we expect continued market share expansions to 58% in 217 for 4W and to 75% for 2W due to its new and improved model line-up such as its 7-seater LCGCs. For IMAS, we expect launches of several models in 217 with market share improvement materializing in 218. On stock calls, the rationales for our BUY ratings: ASII on improved market share and solid earnings growth; IMAS due to lower interest rates leading to a good medium-term recovery; and GJTL on singledigit PEs and a stronger local currency. Risks to our call include lower margins (ASII); lower Datsun sales (IMAS); and a weaker IDR (GJTL). Relative performance YTD to JCI Relative valuations Code Rating CP TP Market cap F EBIT margin EPS growth PER EV/ EBITDA Yield ROAE Net gearing (IDR) (IDR) (USDmn) (%) (%) (x) (%) (%) (x) (%) ASII BUY 7,775 1, 23, IMAS BUY 1,4 2, na GJTL BUY 1,85 1, Sector 23, , Bahana estimates Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Domestic 2W and 4W ownership per 1, population, F 1 (%) 91.2 (%) 5 (per 1, population) 275 (per 1, population) (2) (4) (6) (54.3) (8) GJTL ASII Sector IMAS Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext (1) (2) (3) A 215A 216F 217F 218F Total 2W Total 4W (RHS) Source: Gaikindo, AISI, Bahana

107 217 Compendium AUTOMOTIVE 4W sales volumes, F (' units) 2W sales volumes, F (' units) 1,35 1,3 1,316 9, 8, 7,867 1,25 1,2 1,15 1,1 1,5 1, 1,28 1,13 1,4 1,196 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 6,48 5,897 6,44 6, , F 217F 218F 1, F 217F 218F Source: Gaikindo, Bahana estimates Top 1 passengers sales, 213-1M16 1M Type Units Type Units Type Units Type Units Avanza 1,488 Avanza 129,25 Avanza 162,7 Avanza 213,458 Innova 48,964 Agya 57,646 Mobilio 79,288 Xenia 64,611 Agya 38,933 Innova 43,444 Agya 67,74 Ertiga 63,317 HRV 37,91 Brio 43,596 Innova 56,157 Innova 64,539 Brio 37,61 Mobilio 42,932 Ertiga 47,15 Livina 35,422 Xenia 36,587 HRV 37,647 Xenia 46,71 Rush 35,4 Ayla 34,744 Xenia 36,262 Ayla 4,775 Misubishi Pikap 29,662 BRV 33,414 Ayla 35,84 Brio 38,693 Jazz 27,83 Source: AISI, Bahana estimates Domestic market share (4W and 2W), 1M16 Mitsubishi 9% Suzuki 9% Nissan 1% 4W Others (Non-Astra) 7% Daihatsu 17% Isuzu 1% Nissan Diesel % Yamaha 24% 2W Others 2% Mobilio 33,354 Ertiga 3,963 Rush 29,69 Suzuki Carry 46,28 Ertiga 25,754 Datsun 29,358 Jazz 22,329 Gran Max 48,12 Total 427,74 Total 486,137 Total 589,72 Total 628,36 Source: Gaikindo ggrgrgrgrgrgrgrg Honda 19% Peugeut % Source: Gaikindo, AISI Toyota 35% ASII 74% 17

108 217 Compendium BANKS OVERWEIGHT Going into 217, we expect the Indonesian banking sector to re-rate with the perception of growth and liquidity improving due to two factors: (1) In a system with a 22% CAR, IDR13tn of repatriated funds from tax amnesty can be multiplied into IDR6tn, about 15% of excess deposits over loans of IDR4tn currently; and (2) A cyclical recovery would likely accelerate money velocity. In an economic upcyle coupled with President Jokowi s growth model using SOEs as investment vehicles, we are long the 3 SOE banks and short BBCA s private status and defensive nature. BBCA s 12% premium in 4Q15 over the 3 SOE banks has de-rated to 95% since. At this stage of the cycle, we begin to see relative value emerging amongst the smaller banks like BBKP (1.x 217F PBV TP of IDR1 59% upside) for its S&L franchise focused on SME and micro. Risk to our call: Slower-than-expected GDP growth to adversely affect NPLs. Relative valuations Code Rating CP TP Mkt Cap Loans F Gross NPL Net Profit ROAE NP Growth P/E P/BV Dv. Yield (IDR) (IDR) (USDmn) (IDRtn) (%) (IDRbn) (%) (%) (x) (x) (%) BBCA HOLD 14,7 15,1 26, , BBRI BUY 11,5 14,9 21, , BMRI BUY 1,9 12,35 18, , BBNI BUY 5,125 7, 7, , BDMN BUY 3,55 4, 2, , BBTN BUY 1,72 2,1 1, , BTPN BUY 2,79 3,3 1, , BJBR REDUCE 1,495 1,2 1, , BJTM HOLD , BBKP BUY 63 1, , Sector 84,653 2, , , Bahana estimates note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Relative performance YTD to JCI (%) (%) 85. LDR ratio, 1Q11-3Q16 (%) 1 (%) (15.) (1.) (1.8) (2.5) (3.) (3.) 5. (15.) (35.) (1.8) (12.8) (23.5) BJBR BBTN BMRI BTPN JAKFIN BJTM BDMN BBCA SECTOR BBNI BBRI BBKP (35.) Industry Big 4 Non Big 4 Ex Big 4 vs Big 4 Gap (rhs) Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 Source: Bahana estimates, companies, SPI 18

109 217 Compendium BANKS PBV vs. ROE, 9M16 PBV (x) 3.5 BBCA: BBRI: 2. BMRI: BBNI: 1.1 BJBR: 1.5 BTPN: BJTM: 1. BDMN:.9 BBTN: 1. BBKP: ROE (%) Source: Bahana estimates, Bloomberg. *Based on closing price on 23 November 216 NPL, 1Q11-3Q16 NIM, 4Q11-3Q16 (%) Industry Big 4 Non Big 4 Ex Big 4 vs Big 4 Gap (rhs) Source: Bahana estimates, companies, SPI Non-interest income, 1Q11-3Q16 (%) (%) 4.5 (%) 1.3 (IDRbn) 1, (IDRbn) 67, , 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 57,5 47,5 37,5 27,5 17, ,5 Industry Big 4 Non Big 4 Ex Big 4 vs Big 4 Gap (rhs) Source: Bahana estimates, companies, SPI Industry Big 4 Non Big 4 Ex Big 4 vs Big 4 Gap (rhs) Source: Bahana estimates, companies, SPI 19

110 217 Compendium CEMENT NEUTRAL With 1MT installed capacity and potential 2MT more expected in the next 3 years, over-investment is expected to cap utilization rates below 75% until 22 (assuming long-term 1% volume growth), and could prolong to 223, assuming 5% growth as in 216F. We also think government s intention to apply a moratorium on cement plants for the Java island to be effective in cutting future investments for the sector. We believe INTP s aggressive price cuts in 3Q16 marks the beginning of the end, as the move is strategic in defining the industry s return rate, given its Java dominance and pricing reference for the rest of the region. Thus, we think at current IDR95k/ton price and 2-25% EBIT margin, cement project IRRs are below WACC, hindering further investments. With valuation EV/production ton below replacement, and historical P/E vs JCI testing -2 long term std dev, cement valuations may be nearing their lows. NEUTRAL. Risks: Lower/higher utilization rates. Relative valuations Code Rating CP TP Mkt Cap EV/ ton F EV/ EBITDA EBITDA margin Net Profit ROAE NP Growth P/E Div. Yield (IDR) (IDR) (USDmn) (USD) (x) (%) (IDRbn) (%) (%) (x) (%) INTP HOLD 14,575 15,6 3, , (6.9) SMGR HOLD 8,4 8,94 3, , SMCB HOLD (128.1) SMBR REDUCE 2, , (21.4) Sector 9, , (1.6) , Bahana estimates note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Relative performance to JCI YTD (%) (%) Utilization industry, (' tons) 14, 12, 1, (%) , , , 2, (24.) (1) (39.8) (42.9) (48.2) (1) SMBR SECTOR SMCB SMGR SECTOR* INTP, *excluding SMBR Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext F 217F 218F Production Consumption Utilization rate Source: ASI, Bahana estimates 6. 11

111 217 Compendium CEMENT Utilization rate 4 companies, F (%) F 217F 218F SMGR INTP SMCB SMBR Source: Indonesian Cement Association ASP industry, 213-ytd (IDR/ ton) 95, Java & non-java consumption, (IDR/mn tons) 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Java Non Java Growth Source: Indonesian Cement Association Bag and Bulk 3M moving average, 25-ytd (Tons) 6,, (%) , 5,, 85, 8, 75, 4,, 3,, 2,, 1,, 7, Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Bag 3mth MA Bulk 3mth MA Total 3mth MA Source: Companies, Bahana Source: Semen Indonesia 111

112 217 Compendium COAL NEUTRAL At this stage of the coal cycle, we believe the price lows are probably over, and we are close to the highs. The recent price spike was due to two factors: (1) Bad weather in the northern hemisphere, leading to higherthan-expected demand; (2) Excessive policy-driven supply cuts in China, as we estimate a 1.3% cut in Chinese Supply = a 1% cut in Indonesia supply. Looking ahead, with coal being an easily supplied market, we believe the commodity will eventually correct to our expected price average of USD65/ton in 216, before falling to USD58/ton in 217. On a more positive note, Indonesia s 35GW power plants, to be completed by 22, should provide greater sustainability as 6% would be coalfired, translating into about 7mn tons of annual domestic demand. In terms of stock picks, we prefer to play coal through the Indonesian 35GW proxy, such as ADRO and PTBA. Risks to our call are China s increasing its miners working days from the current 276 and thermal power plant delays. Relative valuations F Mkt EV/ Net Div CP TP Cap EBITDA Margin P/E P/BV Yield Code Rating (IDR) (IDR) (USDm) (x) (%) (x) (x) (%) UNTR BUY 21,9 26,5 6, ADRO BUY 1,63 2,1 3, PTBA BUY 11,9 14,13 2, ITMG BUY 16,2 19,46 1, Sector 13, Relative performance to JCI ytd (%) (%) China coal mine vs total coal inventory, Jan 28 - Aug 216 (mt) (mt) ADRO ITMG PTBA SECTOR UNTR Andrew Hotama (andrew.franklin@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II Aug'8 Aug'9 Aug'1 Aug'11 Aug'12 Aug'13 Aug'14 Aug'15 Aug'16 China total coal inventory (LHS) China coal mine inventory (RHS), Bahana 112

113 217 Compendium COAL Long-term correlation between coal and oil, 21-18F (USD/ton) (USD/barell) China new energy policy The law calls for changing energy structures to reduce the percentage of coal as a primary energy source in China. The law requires all new coal plants to have on-site washing equipment to remove sulphur and ash content, and older coal plants are to be retrofitted to meet environmental standards. Stricter enforcement measures to meet coal quality standards are introduced, so reducing China s overall amount of usable coal, improving energy efficiency and cutting pollutant emissions F 218F Coal (LHS) Oil (RHS), Bahana research China electricity generation by fuel source, F (tkw/h) Source: eia natural gas Renewables Nuclear Coal In addition to introducing stricter enforcement standards for coal operations, the New Air Law enables regional governments to establish zones that prohibit burning fuels that emit a large amount of pollutants. In those areas, any entity that constructs or expands facilities that use high-pollution fuels can be fined up to 2, yuan (US$3,). In most cases, these high-polluting fuel restriction zones will become coal-free. Major air pollution control regions are required to limit the increase of local coal consumption, where any new projects that use coal must offset the amount in the same region, thereby setting a coal cap. The law also requires the green dispatch of electricity to prioritise the renewable and cleaner energy dispatches over dirty power generators. This provides the legal foundation for a green dispatch program as stated in the recent Xi-Obama joint announcement on climate change. Source: Chinadialogue.net 35GW to be completed by Indonesia before 21F (MW) 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Coal-fired Gas-fired Hydropower Geothermal Wind Source: Jakartapost 113

114 217 Compendium CONSTRUCTION, TOLL ROAD & INFRA-RELATED OVERWEIGHT Apart from higher 217F GDP growth of 5.4%, Indonesia s infrarelated sector should benefit from higher government spending, supported by greater government tax revenue due to the resetting to a higher tax base following the successful tax amnesty program. On toll roads, we see faster implementation and development prospects on improved land-clearing processes as well as the introduction of government priority projects with guaranteed funding, propelling the government s plan to build 1,km toll roads by 219. Therefore, we maintain our OVERWEIGHT sector rating on sustainable solid growth. On stock picks, we prefer WIKA due to its diversified revenue sources paving the way for higher earnings quality. We also like WSKT on solid earnings visibility, helped by its substantial owned projects. Risks to our call include delayed project execution and lower state spending on tax receipt shortfalls. Relative performance to JCI YTD (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (6.5) (8.7) (12.9) (12.9) WSKT TOTL WSBP* SECTOR PTPP WIKA WTON ADHI JSMR *Since IPO Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext. 368 (2.) (32.9) (1) (2) (3) (4) Relative valuations F Mkt EV/ EBIT Div. CP TP Cap EBITDA margin PE P/BV yield Code Rating (IDR) (IDR) (USDm) (x) (%) (x) (x) (%) JSMR BUY 4,21 5,287 4, WSKT BUY 2,36 3,2 2, PTPP BUY 3,883 4,63 1, WIKA BUY 2,372 3,267 1, WSBP BUY , WTON BUY 83 1, ADHI BUY 2, 3, TOTL BUY 76 1, Sector (mkt. cap wght.) 11, Sector (construction only) 7, , Bahana estimates Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Indonesia s infrastructure targets, Details End 214 Target 219 Details End 214 Target 219 Connectivity Basic Infrastructure National road-worthiness rate 94% 99% Electrification rate 81.5% 1.% National road length 38,57 km 46,77km Electricity consumption per capita 843 kwh 12 kwh New road construction (in 5-yrs) 1,28km 2,65km Household gas network 12, (SR) 192, (SR) New toll-road construction (in 5-yrs) 26km 1,km Drink water access 7.% 1% Railways length 5,434km 8,692km Home ownership backlog 13.5 mn 6.8 mn Seaports development Water supply Dwelling time in ports 6-7 days 3-4 days Basic water capacity 51.4 m3/sec m3/sec Number of airports Storage per capita 62.3 m m3 Number of crossing docks Dam construction (5-yrs) 21 dams 49 dams Logistic costs 23.5% 19.2% Irigation from dam 11% 2% Public transport rate 23% 32% Surface irigation network mn ha mn ha Source: National Planning Agency 114

115 217 Compendium CONSTRUCTION, TOLL ROAD & INFRA RELATED Construction sector sales breakdown & gross margin, F (IDRbn) 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, ,84 38,867 Source: Companies, Bahana ,711 44,89 14,156 65,273 18,88 84,245 21,796 15, F 216F 217F 218F Construction Non-construction Gross margin Mid-term infrastructure investment plan (RPJMN), F Sector State budget Local budget SOE Private Total Electricity Sea transportation Road Housing Energy (oil & gas) Clean water and waste system Water resources Railroad Information technology Air transportation City transportation Land transportation Total 2, ,66.2 1, ,519.4 Percentage 4.1% 9.9% 19.3% 3.7% 1.% Source: National Planning Agency; Note: 216 state budget infrastructure spending expected to only reach IDR317.1tn with budgeted amount of c.idr346.6tn in 217 (%) New contracts vs construction GDP/total GDP, F (IDRbn) (%) 18, , 3, 4, , 27,924 4, 26, ,366 12, , 2,177 31,16 41,19 35, , , 3,57 27,73 53, 45,6 8 6, 9,71 38, 2, ,33 4, 17, ,918 46,41 47,192 2, 32, , F 218F WSKT WIKA PTPP ADHI TOTL Construction GDP/total GDP Source: Companies, Bahana Current and planned toll road projects, F Source: The Ministry of Public Works and Public Housing, Bahana; Note: 216 toll road construction amounted to c. 13km 115

116 217 Compendium CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY - MEDIA OVERWEIGHT Indonesia s FTA TV industry, dominated by MNCN (37.2% audience share as of 9M16) and SCMA (25.7%), is on the verge of recovery on advertising flow of c.2x GDP growth, backed by low inflation and improving economic growth leading to higher purchasing power. In 216, some of the FMCG corporates held back on advertising expenditure by remaining cautious and adopting a wait and see mode post the bleak 215. In 217, we expect normalization to return, in line with GDP growth rising to 5.3%. SCMA is our top media pick due to: (1) Sector-high ROE of c.45%, (2) Indosiar s high double-digit strong growth outperformance to help offset SCTV s weak rating, and (3) attractive valuation at 19x FY17F PE post pullback. MNCN is also a BUY on cheap valuation, market share gains (fuelled by RCTI), and strong FCF growth post peak capex cycle. Sector risks: Weaker GDP, stronger online ads. Relative valuations F Market EPS EV/ CP TP Cap growth P/E PEG PBV EBITDA ROAE Code Rating (IDR) (IDR) (USDmn) (%) (X) (X) (x) (x) (%) SCMA BUY 2,38 3, 3, MNCN BUY 1,735 2,2 1, LINK HOLD 5,55 5,3 1, BMTR REDUCE MSKY REDUCE 1, na na na VIVA REDUCE Sector 7, , Bahana estimates; pricing as of 23 November 216 Relative performance ytd to JCI (%) (%) Bahana TV Adex vs. GDP Growth (1) (1) (2) (3) (19.9) (19.9) (25.1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (35.6) (36.7) (4) (5) (6) (55.3) (6) LINK MNCN VIVA Sector MSKY SCMA BMTR Henry Wibowo (henry.wibowo@bahana.co.id) ext Source: Bahana Estimates, Company Data 116

117 217 Compendium CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY MEDIA Advertiser Profile FMCG remains as dominant category Top 1 Category TV & Print (IDR b- Gross) Category Adex 1H15 Adex 1H16 YoY% 1 Government, Political Organization Govt/Politics 2,714 3,8 4% 2 Clove Cigarettes FMCG 2,288 3,5 53% 3 Communication Equipment & Services Telco 1,969 2,5 27% 4 Hair Care Products FMCG 2,83 2,5 2% 5 Coffee, Tea FMCG 1,855 2,3 24% 6 Facial Care Products FMCG 1,679 2,2 31% 7 Online Services (E-Commerce, Website, Apps) Internet 1,325 2,2 66% 8 Instant Food, Instant Noodles FMCG 1,55 2, 29% 9 Corporate Ads, Social Services Corporate 1,624 1,9 17% All-time audience share, January 214 October 216 (%) Snacks, Biscuits, Cookies, Cakes FMCG 1,47 1,9 35% Source: Nielsen Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 SCTV RCTI IVM MNCTV GTV Oct-16 Source: Nielsen, Bahana Law No.32/22 Article Clause Main content 1 Within one broadcasting region or multiple regions, ownership or control over non-government broadcasting institutions by either an individual or an entity must be limited 18 Directly or indirectly owned non-government broadcasting companies or 2 entities in cross ownerships within different media type must be limited 4 The terms and conditions of clauses 1 and 2 above shall be ensured by the Indonesian Broadcasting Commission (KPI) and the government 34 4 Broadcasting licenses are non-transferable Source: Indonesian Broadcasting Commission, Bahana Government Regulation No.5/25 Article Clause Main content Source: Ministry of Information and Communication, Bahana One entity may only have two TV broadcasting licenses in two different provinces 49% maximum share ownership in a second entity 2% maximum share ownership in a third entity 5% maximum share ownership in a fourth entity Cross-ownership limitations with a single entity only allowed to own one media company type Ad Spend Trend - ICBP (Leading National FMCG Advertiser) Source: Bahana Research, Company Data 117

118 217 Compendium CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY - RETAIL OVERWEIGHT On lower inflationary outlook (17F: 3.8%) and high GDP growth forecast (17F: 5.3%), the retail sector is one of our top picks as we anticipate the improved purchasing power to stimulate discretionary spending particularly given the GDP/capita of more than USD3,5. At this stage, we believe profit/sqm has bottomed (MAPI s 9M16 SSG: 8.7% vs. 14.7% in 214 and LPPF s 9M16 SSG: +6% y-y down from double-digit average growth in the last 3-4 years). Thus, improving SSG ahead should directly support earnings. We also expect to see consumer behavior shifting back to hypermarket format as increasing disposable income should translate into larger basket size. On stocks, our top picks for the sector are fashion retailers: MAPI, LPPF and RALS, while our least preferred stock is ACES on lack of catalyst and limited growth potential in tier-1 cities. Downside risk to our sector view is unexpected sales boom in e-commerce. Relative valuations F Market EPS EV/ CP TP Cap growth PBV EBITDA ROE Code Rating (IDR) (IDR) (USDmn) (%) (x) (x) (%) LPPF BUY 14,575 19,1 3, ACES HOLD , MPPA BUY 1,75 2, RALS BUY 1,22 1, MAPI BUY 4,89 6, TELE BUY CSAP BUY ERAA BUY Sector 6, Sector exc. LPPF 3, , Bahana estimates; prices as of 23 November 216 *estimated using core EPS Relative performance ytd to JCI (%) (15) (2.5) (8.) (9.6) (19.3) (2.1) (35) (3.7) RALS MAPI CSAP ERAA ACES SECTOR TELE MPPA LPPF as of 23 November 216 Retail sales index, January 213 September 216 (pts) average: Jan-1 May-1 Sep-1 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15 Sep-15 Jan-16 May-16 Sep-16 Retail sales index Source: CEIC, Bahana Richard Danusaputra (richard@bahana.co.id) ext. 365 Michael W Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) ext

119 217 Compendium CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY - RETAIL Sectoral EBIT margin vs USDIDR, Jan 5 - Sept 16 Population by income, 213 and 22F 15, 16.6 Indonesian population, 213 (mn) Indonesian population, 22 (mn) 14, Elite , 12, Affluent Upper Middle , , Middle , Emerging Middle 5.5 8, Q421 Q4211 Q4212 Q4213 Q4214 Q4215 Q Aspirant 47.9 USDIDR EBIT Margin (%) 63.3 Poor 28.3 Source:Bloomberg, Bahana Source: Statistics Indonesia Private consumption vs inflation y-y growth, 1Q13-4Q16F (%) Q13 2Q13 3Q13 4Q13 1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 (%) Profit /sqm, F (IDRmn/sqm) (IDRmn/sqm) F 217F 218F Source: CEIC, Bahana estimates Inflation y-y (LHS) Private consumption y-y (RHS) Source: Companies, Bahana estimates Revenue /sqm Operational cost /sqm Core profit /sqm (RHS) 119

120 217 Compendium CONSUMER STAPLES NEUTRAL In the midst of high GDP growth outlook reaching USD3,5/capita level, we believe the incremental consumer spending will be greater towards the discretionary sector (i.e. retailer front) relative to staples goods. Nevertheless, we continue to see sustainable and long-term consumption growth for Indonesia due to favorable demographics: young and high population base as well as growing urbanization. Looking ahead, we expect stable FMCG demand to remain in place, but the anticipated higher soft commodity prices should result in margin pressures, in our view. Note that based on Nielsen s latest retail Sept-16 survey data, we have not seen FMCG demand recovery. Our bigger-cap stock pick is ICBP (higher pricing power to pass on cost inflation), while for the mid-cap it is MYOR (on higher volume growth outlook). Downside risk: Higher commodity prices/strong dollar to weaken margins; Upside risk: Less competition. Relative valuations F Mkt EPS EV/ CP TP Cap growth P/E PEG P/B EBITDA ROE Code Rating (IDR) (IDR) (USDm) (%) (X) (X) (X) (%) (%) UNVR BUY 4,45 45, 22, ICBP BUY 8,775 1,5 7, INDF BUY 7,7 9,8 5, MYOR BUY 1,535 2,5 2, ROTI HOLD 1,54 1, KINO HOLD 3, 3, Sector 38, Sector exc. UNVR 16, , Bahana estimates note: based on 23 November 216 closing prices Relative performance ytd to JCI (%) (%) 4 3 Consumer discretionary spending vs. staples relative to GDP (1) (2) (3) (4.2) (1) (2) (3) (4) (35.4) (4) INDF ICBP MYOR ROTI SECTOR UNVR KINO Michael W. Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) ext. 362 & Renaldy Effendy (renaldy@bahana.co.id) ext. 366 Source: BPS, Bahana 12

121 217 Compendium CONSUMER STAPLES Top 1 FMCG products retail audit, Aug Top 1 FMCG products retail audit, Aug Source: Nielse, Bahana Source: Nielsen, Bahana Private consumption growth vs. inflation, 1Q14-4Q17F (%) 9. (%) 5.4 FMCG sales value contribution, 216 ytd Inflation y-y Private consumption growth y-y (RHS) 35.7 Food Beverage Personal care Homecare Pharmaceutical Source: CEIC, Bahana Source: Nielsen Media Research, Media Index, Bahana 121

122 217 Compendium HEALTHCARE OVERWEIGHT Indonesia, the region s lowest healthcare expenditure at 3.8% of 216F GDP, should see spending rise to 5% of GDP by 219, helped by the mandatory National Healthcare Insurance (JKN) scheme. With 219F GDP of USD4,1/capita, we estimate heathcare spending to reach USD25/person, reflecting a F CAGR of 11.4%. Rising middle-up income earners suggest that rapidly increasing demand for improved healthcare and services would benefit the private sector more given the state s slow progress (e.g., long queues at medical facilities). Through CoBs, the public at large would possess access to improved medical services at affordable prices. Our top hospital pick is SILO due to the government s JKN and CoB schemes. On the pharmaceutical stocks, we like KLBF due to its strong products and proactive management. Risks to our call are a weak IDR due to high USD-linked costs and possible caps on drug prices. Relative valuations F Market EPS EV/ CP TP Cap growth P/E PEG PBV EBITDA ROE Code Rating (IDR) (IDR) (USDmn) (%) (X) (X) (x) (x) (%) KLBF BUY 1,5 *1,88 5, MIKA HOLD 2,71 2,55 2, KAEF REDUCE 2,7 1,65 1, SILO BUY 1,1 *13, TSPC REDUCE 2, *1,7 668 (3.1) SIDO * BUY Sector 11, , Bahana estimates Note: closing prices as of 23 November 216 *New, please refer to appendix II Relative performance ytd to JCI (%) (%) Healthcare expenditure as % of GDP by region, 213 (latest avail.) (%) (3) (.6) (1.4) (13.5) (3) KAEF Sector TSPC KLBF MIKA SILO SIDO , as of last closing price 23 November 216 Renaldy Effendy (renaldy@bahana.co.id) ext. 366 Source: World Bank 122

123 217 Compendium HEALTHCARE No. of doctors per 1, people, 213 (latest available) Indonesia pharmaceutical market value (IDRbn) Ethical/Prescription drugs 22,471 24,98 28,186 29,492 32, Growth (%) Generic drugs 3,925 4,744 4,588 5,617 6,564 Growth (%) Over the counter (OTC ) 16,778 19,768 22,775 24,398 23,666 Growth (%) Total Market 43,174 49,42 55,549 59,57 62,278 Growth (%) Source: OECD Source: Ministry of Industry No. of hospital beds per 1, people, 215 (latest available) Myanmar 6 DDI realization on pharma industry, (latest avail.) (USDmn) Laos cambodia , 12, Philippines 1 1, Indonesia 12 ASEAN Malaysia , 6, 13,314 Thailand 21 4, 8,886 Vietnam singapore , 2,712 5,7 Brunei Source: IMF Source: Ministry of Industry 123

124 217 Compendium INDUSTRIAL ESTATES NEUTRAL In 217, our NEUTRAL call on the Industrial Estates sector is predominantly driven by the prospect of demand improvement helped by the government s commitment to infrastructure development and recent investment incentives for the sector in the form of tax holidays and ease of permits. We expect industrial land demand to benefit from the government s considerable tax amnesty achievement which should pave the way for higher FDI and DDI inflows. Additionally, we expect the government s new formula for annual wage increases (i.e., GDP growth + inflation) to spell good news for investments. Thus, we forecast 8% y-y average pre-sales growth in 217. Our top sector pick is LPCK on its undemanding valuation, diversified portfolio and healthy balance sheet. Upside risk: Higher-than-expected presales; Downside risk: Infrastructure project delays. Relative performance ytd to JCI (%) (%) 5 (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) (35) (4) (45) 2.3 (.9) (11.5) (25.) (35.9) (4.4) KIJA DMAS SECTOR BEST SSIA LPCK Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) (35) (4) (45) Relative valuations F Code Rating CP TP Market cap NAV/ Share Disc. To NAV Land bank EPS growth ROAE P/E P/BV (IDR) (IDR) (IDRb) (IDR) (%) (Ha) (%) (%) (x) (x) DMAS BUY ,664 1, , KIJA BUY ,99 1,2 55 3, LPCK BUY 5,3 8,3 3,689 24, SSIA BUY ,611 2, BEST REDUCE , (8.5) Sector NEUTRAL 26, , note: based on 23 November 216 closing price DDI & FDI, F (IDRtn) % Source: BKPM, Bahana % 29.% 3.2% % 67.8% 66.3% 66.2% 29.4% 32.2% 33.7% 33.8% F Domestic Direct Investment Foreign Direct Investment

125 217 Compendium INDUSTRIAL ESTATES Marketing sales, F (IDRbn) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1,791 2,692 1,75 1,925 2,117 1,631 2,1 1,68 1,814 1,996 1,495 1,689 1,21 1,9 1, Operating profit, F (IDRbn) 1,4 1,2 1, ,3 1, , LPCK DMAS KIJA BEST SSIA DMAS LPCK KIJA SSIA BEST F 217F 218F F 217F 218F Source: Companies, Bahana estimates; Note: Ranked based on 216F figures Source: Companies, Bahana estimates; Note: Ranked based on 216F figures Total industrial landbank sold in Bekasi, 4Q1-2Q16 (ha) Remaining gross industrial landbank, 9M16 (ha) 3,5 3, , One-off 4ha sale from DMAS One-off 6ha sale from DMAS Average: ,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 1, KIJA DMAS BEST LPCK SSIA Source: Cushman & Wakefield, Bahana Source: Companies 125

126 217 Compendium LAND TRANSPORTATION UNDERWEIGHT In 217, we expect conventional taxi business to face sustained fierce competition from online transportation companies which provide drivers with higher incomes while at the same time offer passengers with cheaper fares. This will result in limited expansion for BIRD and TAXI going forward, due to driver shortages and lower demand. On a more positive note, ASSA should see higher margins on its car disposal and auction segment due to improved Toyota Avanza s secondary market prices and BidWin s recent major expansion. We also expect demand for ASSA s corporate car rentals to remain sustainable, resulting from long-term contracts with corporate customers. We reiterate our UNDERWEIGHT call to the sector and HOLD for BIRD and REDUCE for TAXI mainly due to intense competition with onlinebased taxis. That said, ASSA is the only BUY in the sector. Upside risk: Higher-than-expected consumer spending on taxis. Relative performance YTD to JCI (%) (%) Relative valuations Code Rating CP TP Market cap F EBIT EPS margin growth PER EV/ Net Yield ROAE EBITDA gearing (IDR) (IDR) (USDbn) (%) (%) (x) (x) (%) (x) (%) BIRD HOLD 2,93 2, ASSA BUY TAXI REDUCE na Sector , Bahana estimates note: based on 23 November 216 closing price 212 Toyota Avanza secondary market prices, January 216-ytd (IDRmn) (2) (2) (4) (6) (55.1) (4) (6) 124 (8) (72.2) (8) 122 (1) ASSA TAXI Sector BIRD Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 (1) 12 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Source: Bahana 126

127 217 Compendium LAND TRANSPORTATION Taxi fleet in Jakarta, (units) 28, Inspected online taxi fleet in Jakarta, 216 UBER Grab Go-Car 27, 27,239 27,79 26, 26,667 Total fleet inspected (units) 3,35 2, , 24, 23,778 24,368 Passed inspection (units) 3,137 2, , 22, Source: Transportation Agency, Bahana Failed inspection (units) Source: Bahana BIRD & TAXI fleet size comparison, F Conventional vs. Online taxi tariff comparison, 216 (units) 4, Conventional taxi Online taxi 35, 31,916 33,394 33,394 33,394 33,394 3, 25, 2,98 23,36 28,33 Flag fall (IDR) 6,5 3, 2, Tariff (IDR/km) 3,5 2, 15, 1, 6,2 8,35 1,79 11,17 11,558 11,525 11,525 11,525 Tariff (IDR/hour) 42, 18, 5, F 217F 218F BIRD TAXI Source: Company, Bahana Cancellation fee (IDR) Source: Company, Bahaa 1, - 127

128 217 Compendium METAL MINING OVERWEIGHT As we progress into 217, we expect China s economy to improve further, added with Trump s infrastructure spending of around USD1tn over the next 1 years should pave the way for a recovery on the demand side for metals and putting prices on an upward trend. Additionally, the Philippines recent policy on the suspension of nickel mines that fail environmental audits looks to also be supportive for nickel prices. We believe Indonesian nickel ore exporters, such as INCO and ANTM, will outperform in 217, due to increasing demand from China. Metal prices have been sufficiently low for longer periods for supply to adjust downward since 212. Decreased output in metals are likely to support prices in 217. Hence, we also expect TINS, PSAB, KRAS and MDKA to experience better performance in 217. A downside risk is higher-than-expected Fed rate hikes, while upside risks include stronger Chinese economy and bigger-than-expected Trump infra program. Relative performance YTD to JCI (%) (%) (5) (11.3) (13.2) ANTM KRAS TINS SECTOR INCO PSAB MDKA Andrew Franklin Hotama (Andrew.franklin@bahana.co.id) ext (5) Relative valuations F Mkt EV/ Net Div. CP TP Cap EBITDA margin P/E P/BV yield Code Rating (IDR) (IDR) (USDm) (x) (%) (x) (x) (%) INCO BUY 3,37 4, 2, ANTM REDUCE , KRAS BUY 79 1, (1.7) na.7 - TINS BUY 1,25 1, PSAB BUY MDKA BUY 2, Sector 6, Government s revised law on minerals and coal: 1) Government will provide export permits to 8 commodities for 5 years, as long as smelters have been 3-4% developed. 2) IUP (Ijin Usaha Penambangan or Regular Mining Permit) and IUPK (Ijin Usaha Penambangan Khusus, or Special Mining Permit) holders, which are in the process of increasing their value-added chain for minerals or coal, have the right to receive fiscal and non-fiscal incentives from the government, depending on the constitutional law. 3) Following 5 years of production, businesses that hold IUP and IUPK licenses and foreignowned shares are responsible to divest their stakes to local Indonesian citizens. 4) If the divestment from article (2) is not fulfilled, share offerings will be done through the stock exchange. 5) The government can issue both mining licenses (IUP and IUPK)., Bahana estimates 128

129 217 Compendium METAL MINING Nickel global price and inventory,2-216 (mt) (USD/ton) 6, 5, 4, 3, Steel hot-rolled coil (HRC) global price and inventory, (USD/ton) (mt) 1, 6, 9 8 5, 7 4, 6 5 3, , 4 3 2, 1 5 1, 2 1 1, Inventory (LHS) Price (RHS) Price (LHS) Inventory (RHS), Bahana, Bahana Tin global price and inventory, Global gold prices, (USD/ton) 35, (mt) 45 (USD/kg) 7, 3, 4 6, 25, , 2, 25 4, 15, 2 3, 1, 5, , 1, Price (LHS) Inventory (RHS) , Bahana, Bahana 129

130 217 Compendium OIL & GAS NEUTRAL Based on EIA data, global oil demand growth of 6k BOPD quarterly is expected to outstrip supply growth of 25k, leading to a global supply deficit in 4Q17. We forecast an LT global oil price of above USD5/bbl as industry economics likely cannot support LT supply growth vs. demand. We target Brent to average USD55/bbl in 217, up from USD47 in 216. We expect the local gas price cut by around USD2/mmbtu, of which most would be from the government sacrificing its extraction share and taxes from the sector. To attain the USD6/mmbtu price, the government intends to cut out the middleman and/or other operating inefficiencies. At this stage, we are NEUTRAL on the sector as we expect a slight oil surplus in 217, limiting price increases. On stocks, our top pick is PGAS, as we believe the government would not hurt domestic gas pipeline economics to encourage continued investment. Downside risk: Shale gas production recovery stronger than expected; Upside risk: Lower-thanexpected oil inventories on good demand. Relative performance YTD to JCI (%) (%) Relative valuations F Mkt EV/ Net Div. CP TP Cap EBITDA margin P/E P/BV yield Code Rating (IDR) (IDR) (USDmn) (x) (%) (x) (x) (%) PGAS BUY 2,53 2,89 4, AKRA BUY 6,625 8, 1, MEDC BUY 1,37 1, Sector 6, OPEC surplus capacity at multi-decade low, F (mbopd) (1) (3) 3 1 (1) (17.4) (21.1) (21.3) (3) PGAS AKRA SECTOR MEDC Andrew Franklin Hotama (Andrew.franklin@bahana.co.id) ext. 3619, Bahana 13

131 217 Compendium OIL & GAS EIA global supply demand surplus/deficit forecast, F (mbopd) U.S. Shale total oil & gas production, (mbopd) (mmcfd) 5,5 5, 49,5 49, 48,5 48, 47,5 47, 46,5-3. Oil (LHS) Gas (RHS), Bahana, Bahana Oil cost structure Gas cost structure (USD/barrel) 8 7 (USD/mmbtu) Producing fields Onshore Onshore row middle east Offshore shelf Deepwater Ultra deepwater Onshore Russia Extra Heavy Oil NAM Shale Oil Sands cost recovery Upstream contractor share gov share gov tax transmission distribution, Bahana, Bahana 131

132 217 Compendium PLANTATIONS NEUTRAL Indonesia s estimated 216 CPO production of 29.6mn mt (62% of global supply) and Malaysia s 17.9mn mt (35%) are in aggregate expected to drop 7.3% y-y on a prolonged El-Nino effect in However, going into 217, we now expect a low La Nina occurrence in key planted areas to disrupt FFB production. Hence, CPO volume will likely regain strength in 2Q17 as rainfall normalizes and FFB production recovers. As we estimate Indonesia and Malaysia s total 217 CPO production to reach 52.1mn mt, +9.7% y-y, we retain our average CPO price at USD7/mt (216F: USD65, 215:USD568). At this stage, we retain AALI as our top sector pick given upside potential of 29.8% to our target price. Within the sector, we prefer stocks with less exposure to cooking oil due to possible further price capping policy from the government. Risks: High oil and soybean prices, weak CPO demand and lower sugar price floor. Relative performance YTD to JCI (%) (%) Relative valuations Code Rating CP TP Market cap F EBIT EPS margin growth PER EV/ Net Yield ROAE EBITDA gearing (IDR) (IDR) (USDbn) (%) (%) (x) (%) (%) (x) (%) AALI BUY 15,6 2, LSIP BUY 1,68 2, nc SIMP HOLD TBLA BUY 92 1, SGRO BUY 1,9 2, Sector , Bahana estimates note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Malaysia CPO price, January 2-ytd (USD/mt) 1, , (1) (2) (1.1) (1.2) TBLA SIMP LSIP Sector SGRO AALI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext (1) (2) 3 1, Bahana estimates 132

133 217 Compendium PLANTATIONS Palm oil production and consumption, 21-17F Revenue breakdown, 216F (mn mt) (%) F 217F Indonesia & Malaysia production China & India demand, Bahana forecasts CPO premium (discount) to soy oil, January 2-ytd (%) 15 5 (5) (15) SIMP TBLA AALI LSIP SGRO Cooking oil CPO Others Source: Company, Bahana forecasts Rainfall data in several cities, January 26-ytd (mm) 1, (25) 3 (35) 2 1 (45) Jan- Apr- Jul- Oct- Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-2 Apr-2 Jul-2 Oct-2 Jan-3 Apr-3 Jul-3 Oct-3 Jan-4 Apr-4 Jul-4 Oct-4 Jan-5 Apr-5 Jul-5 Oct-5 Jan-6 Apr-6 Jul-6 Oct-6 Jan-7 Apr-7 Jul-7 Oct-7 Jan-8 Apr-8 Jul-8 Oct-8 Jan-9 Apr-9 Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Max Min Mean 216, Bahana Source: Indonesia Meteorological and Climate Agency, Bahana 133

134 217 Compendium POULTRY UNDERWEIGHT With the view that IDR will remain weaker in 217F against USD, we maintain our underweight stance on the sector as 5-6% of COGS are USD-linked. Although the government closely monitors poultry supply, GPS import and breeding program, we still expect DOC price to correct in 2H16 on slightly higher 216 GPS import quota. On the feed division, the government has limited import quota for lowquality corn and wheat, forcing feed manufacturers to utilize the more expensive local corn. At this stage, local corn prices have soared to IDR4,2-4,5/kg levels, much higher compared to IDR3,/kg imported corn, resulting in higher raw materials prices. Our top sector pick is JPFA on the back of the company s cheap valuation and manageable net gearing ratio of less than 42% in 217. Upside risks to our call are easing policy risks from government rulings on price caps and import bans to benefit industry players. Relative valuations F Mkt EV/ EBIT Div. CP TP Cap EBITDA margin PE P/B yield ROE Code Rating (IDR) (IDR) (USDm) (X) (%) (X) (X) (%) (%) CPIN HOLD 3,37 3,3 4, JPFA BUY 1,755 2,4 1, MAIN BUY 1,31 2, Sector 5, , Bahana estimates note: based on 23 November 216 closing prices Share price performance ytd to JCI Regional GDP and chicken consumption per capita, 215 (%) 2 (%) 2 (kg/annum) (USD1k) (5) (27.6) JPFA SECTOR CPIN MAIN 5 (5) Brunei Malaysia Thailand Phillipines Indonesia Vietnam Cambodia Chicken consumption per capita Income per capita (RHS) , based on 23 November 216 closing prices Michael W. Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) ext. 362 Source: Company, Bahana 134

135 217 Compendium POULTRY Corn and soybean prices, ytd (USD/ ton) avg: 17 avg: 268 avg: 272 avg: 168 avg: Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Corn price Avg yearly corn prince (USD/ ton) 6 avg: 3 avg: 344 avg: 429 avg: 426 avg: 427 avg: avg: Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Soybean meal price Avg yearly soybean meal price Note: ytd through 23 November 216 Chicken prices, ytd ytd avg: 142 last: 145 ytd avg: 319 last: 316 DOC prices, ytd (IDR/DOC) avg: 3,235 avg: 5,566 avg: 4,71 avg: 3,722 8, Last price: 6,6 7, Lebaran Lebaran Lebaran Lebaran Lebaran 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, - Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Source: Pinsar, Arboge, Bahana Note: ytd through 23 November 216 Poultry market share, 215 (IDR/kg) 25, 22, 19, avg: 16,85 avg: 19,313 avg: 18,719 Lebaran Lebaran Lebaran Lebaran avg: 17,358 Last price: 18,2 Lebaran 16, 13, 1, c Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Source: Pinsar, Arboge, Bahana Note: ytd through 23 November 216 Feed DOC 135

136 217 Compendium PROPERTY OVERWEIGHT We believe sector is bottoming out heading into 217 on (1) successful tax amnesty, (2) 15bps BI rate cuts in 216 and (3) LTV relaxation and policy easing for foreigners to own property. Recent government deregulation on foreign ownership could be a game changer for Indonesia s property market, in our view, since developers would be able to sell its strata-tile products under the right-to-build (HGB) permits to foreigners. Hence, we forecast total y- y marketing sales growth of 1% in 217. Given positive catalysts above, we raise our rating from NEUTRAL to OVERWEIGHT with SMRA as our top sector pick on its ready projects and high-value assets. We also like CTRA s JV schemes across the archipelago, allowing for a diversified assets base, which can grow in tandem with Indonesia s infrastructure projects. Risk: Infrastructure delays and delayed economic recovery. Relative valuations Code Rating CP TP Market cap NAV/ Share F Disc. to NAV Land bank EPS growth ROAE P/E P/BV (IDR) (IDR) (USDmn) (IDR) (%) (Ha) (%) (%) (x) (x) BSDE BUY 1,815 2,35 2,582 5, , PWON HOLD ,456 1, CTRA BUY 1,435 1,8 1,636 4, , SMRA BUY 1,4 2,15 1,493 4, , PPRO REDUCE 1, ,386 1, LPKR HOLD ,373 2, ASRI REDUCE , DILD BUY , , CTRP BUY , Sector OW 12, , , Bahana estimates note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Relative performance ytd to JCI (%) (%) (1) (2.1) (6.4) (8.2) (12.6) (14.6) (28.6) (36.2) PPRO CTRP PWON ASRI SECTOR* DILD BSDE CTRA SMRA LPKR *ex. PPRO Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext (1) Mortgage vs BI rate & inflation, 28-7M16 (%) M16 Source: Bank Indonesia, Bloomberg Mortgage growth (y-y) BI rate (RHS) Inflation (RHS) (%)

137 217 Compendium PROPERTY Portion of revenue from recurring versus development, 217F (%) LPKR CTRP PWON SMRA BSDE CTRA DILD ASRI PPRO Marketing sales, F (IDRb) 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, CTRA BSDE SMRA PWON ASRI DILD PPRO LPKR CTRP Recurring Development F 217F 218F Source: Bahana estimates Marketing sales based on location, 217F (IDRb) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Source: Companies, Bahana estimates; Note: Ranked based on 216F Operating profit, F (IDRb) 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 BSDE SMRA CTRA ASRI LPKR PPRO PWON DILD CTRP PWON BSDE CTRA LPKR ASRI SMRA DILD PPRO CTRP Jabodetabek Central and East Java Island Outside Java Island Other F 217F 218F Source: Bahana estimates Source: Companies, Bahana estimates; Note: Ranked based on 216F 137

138 217 Compendium SHIPPING NEUTRAL We expect Jokowi s maritime program will continue to benefit logistics player, particularly TMAS, as the development of 13 major ports should support the company to increase both its head and back-haul loads, resulting in lower freight cost going forward. We also expect SOCI to sustain its growth given the steady rise of oil consumption. On the OSV industry, we believe that the worst is over given expectations of a gradual recovery on oil prices and also favorable upcoming policy from the ministry, particularly on zero tax during exploration phase. This may encourage oil producers to start exploring activities as labor and shipping rates have also adjusted with the current oil price level, implying lower break-even prices. Our sector NEUTRAL stance is led by WINS which recently underwent aggressive cost cutting by lowering high cost labor contracts. Risks: delays for port constructions and exploring activities. Relative performance YTD to JCI (%) (%) - - Relative valuations Code Rating CP TP Market cap F EBIT EPS margin growth PER EV/ EBITDA Yield ROAE Net gearing (IDR) (IDR) (USDbn) (%) (%) (x) (%) (%) (x) (%) SOCI BUY TMAS BUY 1,5 2, WINS BUY na Sector , Bahana estimates note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Dwelling time in Tanjung Priok, 216 (days) (5) (5) 5. (1) (6.3) (1) (15) (2) (15) (2) (25) (25) 3. (3) (35) (3.7) (33.5) (3) (35) (4) (36.6) WINS Sector SOCI TMAS Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 (4) 1.5 Source: Detik, Bahana Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Target 138

139 217 Compendium SHIPPING Upcoming O&G development projects, 217F-218F Project name Location Production target IDD Bangka Field, East Kalimantan 216 Bukit Tua Oyong Field, East Java 216 Madura Madura Strait PSC, East Java 217 Jangkrik FPU Kutei Basin, East Kalimantan 217 Ande Ande Lumut Northwest Natuna Sea, Indonesia 218 Tangguh Bintuni Bay, West Papua 22 Masela Source: Company, Bahana Abadi field, Arafura Sea, Indonesia Indonesia oil consumption, 2-216F (mboe) Shipbuilding plan by government, 216F-219F Vessels type 216F 217F 218F 219F 15k DWT vessels Pioneer vessels Various type, incl. traditional k DWT vessels Total (units) Source: Company, Bahana Investment in oil and gas production, F (USDbn) F F Budget Realization Source: Company, Bahana Source: Petrodata, SKK Migas, Company 139

140 217 Compendium TELECOMMUNICATION NEUTRAL In the medium term, we expect the continued improvement in Indonesia s smartphone penetration from 45% currently to 9% by 22 to positively impact data usage and ARPUs, providing solid revenue growth for the telecommunication sector. However, despite relatively stable conditions in Greater Jakarta area and several big cities, increased risks on competition have emerged in outer Java as seen by cheap promotions from EXCL and ISAT, amplified by policy risks such as network sharing. This will translate to lower rental demand for towers, adversely impacting tower providers. Despite expected sector consolidation into just the 3 incumbents, the sector is currently a NEUTRAL on competition. On stocks, TLKM is still our prefered choice on solid network quality, followed by ISAT on earnings recovery and cheap valuation. For tower plays, we prefer TOWR s lower EV/EBITDA. Sector risks: Higher-or-lower margins. Relative valuations Code Rating Market cap Current Price Target Price F No. of subs EV/ EBITDA EBITDA Margin P/E P/BV Dividend yield (USDmn) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (x) (x) (x) (x) (%) TLKM BUY 29,456 3,94 5, ISAT BUY 2,539 6,3 8, EXCL BUY 1,784 2,25 3, Sector 33, TOWR BUY 2,8 3,7 5, na TBIG REDUCE 2,46 5,75 5, Sector 4, , Bahana estimates Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Relative performance to JCI YTD Industry revenue growth, 3Q13-3Q16 (%) (%) 1 (%) (1) (2) (15.6) (1) (3) (4) (5) (6) (35.6) (51.) TLKM SECTOR ISAT TBIG TOWR EXCL Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext. 368 (2) (3) -.2 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 (5) (1) EXCL TSEL ISAT Industry Source: Companies 14

141 217 Compendium TELECOMMUNICATION Subscriber base, 3Q13-3Q16 (mn subs) (mn subs) Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 EXCL ISAT TLKM (RHS) Source: Companies Average revenue per subscriber, 3Q13-3Q16 (IDRk/mth) (IDRk/mth) Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 EXCL ISAT TLKM (RHS) Source: Companies BTS units by operator, 3Q13-3Q16 Industry capex, F (units) 27, 25, 23, 21, 19, 17, 15, 17,41 23,43 257,34 (IDRbn) 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 39,892 7,33 8,192 42,574 41,5 1,48 7, 7, 6,125 43,663 7,443 7,183 46,28 7,94 7,535 13, 119,58 124,97 2, 11, 1,382 9, 83,346 78,725 7, 57,664 56,3 54,212 49,682 46,361 5, 39,819 37,382 3, 22,97 1, 3Q13 3Q14 3Q15 3Q16 EXCL TLKM (RHS) ISAT Total Source: Companies 15, 3,59 29,37 26,41 27,5 24,667 1, 5, F 217F 218F TLKM EXCL ISAT Source: Companies 141

142 217 Compendium TOBACCO OVERWEIGHT While cigarette prices on the ground are already expensive (relative to our GDP/capita), the low domestic inflationary outlook ahead should support consumers purchasing power. Hence, we expect 1% cigarette stick sales volume growth next year with 5-6% ASP increases. Full-flavor machine-rolled cigarettes (SKM FF) are the fastest growing segment (36% share), at the expense of hand-rolled (SKT) (19%), LTLN machine-rolled (SKM LTLN) (39%) and white (SPM) (3%) ones. However, competition in SKM FF and LTLN for key brands remains tough given the premium pricing while we see possible margin pressure on new product launches targeted towards the mass market. Although HMSP s huge market cap makes the stock a core holding for many investors, GGRM s much lower valuation is certainly an attractive value play as well. Nevertheless, we change our top sector pick to HMSP on higher brand equity than GGRM. Relative valuations F Mkt EV/ EBIT Div. CP TP Cap EBITDA margin PE P/B yield ROE Code Rating (IDR) (IDR) (USDm) (X) (%) (X) (X) (%) (%) HMSP BUY 3,93 4,7 33, GGRM BUY 64,5 81, 9, Sector 43, , Bahana estimates note: based on 23 November 216 closing prices Relative performance ytd to JCI (%) 4 2 (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) 3.8 (6.3) GGRM SECTOR HMSP (%) 4 2 (2) (4) (6) (8) (9.) (1) Michael W Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) (ext. 362) Excise tax net of inflation (%) % 6.2% (.5)(.5) % % (.8) (2.3) % (6.4)(6.4)(6.4) % 5.5 (.9) % 5.4% SKM SPM SKT SKM SPM SKT SKM SPM SKT SKM SPM SKT SKM SPM SKT SKM SPM SKT SKM SPM SKT SKM SPM SKT F 217F Excise hike net of inflation GDP growth (RHS) Source: Nielsen,Companies, Bahana 7.% 6.% 5.% 4.% 3.% 2.% 1.%.% 142

143 217 Compendium TOBACCO Indonesia tobacco market share, September % 3.5% 32.9% 6.8% 21.1% Cigarette affordability relative to GDP/capita, by country (packs of Marlboro) 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, - 8,226 5,628 5,41 4,22 3,468 3,252 2,799 2,53 2, % HMSP GGRM Djarum RMBA Nojorono Others Source: Nielsen, Companies, Bahana Source: WorldBank, Bahana Key products ASP hike premium to cost inflation (IDR/stick) Machine-rolled Clove ASP hike Necessary ASP Cost inflation ASP premium to cost increase Producer (SKM) Full Flavor ytd adjustment in 217F 215* 216F 217F F GGRM GG Surya (34) = Djarum Djarum Super (17) = GGRM GG Internasional (15) = HM SP 234 M agnum Filter (1) = M achine-rolled Clove Producer M ild (LTLN) HMSP A Mild (2) = GGRM GG Surya Pro M ild (11) = 17 (28) Djarum LA Lights (16) = GGRM GG Mild (91) = 61 (9) Hand-rolled Clove Producer (SKT) HM SP 234 Kretek (4) = 27 2 HMSP Sampoerna A Hijau (7) = Djarum Djarum Coklat = GGRM GG M erah = Djarum Djarum = Source: Bahana estimates; Note: *using the average cost for each company Key brands discounts to market leader, Dec 15 Current SKM FF (in IDR/stick) Dec-15 Disc. price to market leader (%) Nov-16 Disc. price to market leader (%) Surya 16 GGRM 1,84 1,128 Djarum Super Djarum 1,88 (.4) 1,175 (4.2) Marlboro Filter Black HMSP na na Dunhill Filter RMBA L.A Bold Djarum SKM Light (in IDR/stick) Dec-15 Disc. price to market leader (%) Nov-16 Disc. price to market leader (%) A Mild 16 HMSP 1, 1,124 Star Mild 16 RMBA , A Mild 12 sticks HMSP na na Dunhill Mild 2 RMBA Dunhill Mild 16 RMBA GG Mild GGRM Lucky Strike Mild RMBA Surya Pro Mild GGRM Source: Companies, Bahana 143

144 217 Compendium TOURISM OVERWEIGHT We believe tourism will benefit from Jokowi's policy with the government s marketing budget up sharply to USD4mn in 216 from USD1mn in 215 and USD4mn in 214. This is to support the government s target of doubling the number of foreign tourists to 2mn in 219 from 1.4mn in 215. Other supports are airport upgrades and free-entry visas for 169 countries. International departures have risen from 3.7mn passengers in 24 to 8.6mn in 214, suggesting low air travel penetration and continued strong growth prospects backed by Indonesia s archipelago status, which makes flying virtually a necessity. Thus, PANR, the sector s largest listed company, should be a major beneficiary of the industry s promising outlook, in line with Jokowi s growth initiatives. OVERWEIGHT. Risks to our call would include delays in tourism infrastructure project realization. Relative performance YTD to JCI (%) (%) Relative valuations Code Rating CP TP Market cap F EBIT EPS margin growth PER EV/ EBITDA Yield ROAE Net gearing (IDR) (IDR) (USDbn) (%) (%) (x) (%) (%) (x) (%) GIAA BUY na PANR BUY Sector , Bahana estimates note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Tourism infrastructure development budget, (USDbn) (2.8) (5) PANR Sector GIAA Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 (1.) (5) Indonesia Malaysia Philliphines Thailand Source: Knoema.com, Bahana 144

145 217 Compendium TOURISM International arrivals, F (k people) 22, 2,78 Int l departure vs. disposable income per capita, (k people) (USD) 9, 4, 2, 8, 3,5 18, 17,317 16, 14,75 7, 3, 14, 12,254 6, 2,5 12, 1, 8, 6, 5,321 5,2 4,871 5,55 6,234 6,323 7,2 7,649 8,44 1,46 8,82 9,435 5, 4, 2, 1,5 4, F 217F 218F 219F 3, , International departure (Haji trip excluded) Disposable income per capita (RHS) Source: Indonesia Statistical Agency, Bahana Indonesia s 1 champion tourism destinations Source: Indonesia Statistical Agency, Bahana Total foreign tourists annual spending, (USDmn) 12, 11,166 11, 1, 1,54 9,121 9, 8,554 8, 7,348 7,63 7, 6,298 6, 5,346 5, 4,798 4,522 4,448 4, Source: Ministry of Tourism 3, Source: Indonesia Statistical Agency, Bahana 145

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147 217 Compendium COMPANY 147

148 217 Compendium ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA HOLD PX: IDR87 - TP: IDR85* ACES, the market leader in home and lifestyle products with 124 stores nationwide, has suffered from sluggish sales, falling rev/sqm and negative SSSG since Lebaran. ACES plans to pursue smaller store openings to tap demand from ex-java customers with lower purchasing power while improving rev./sqm. Owning a 3% stake in ruparupa.com (IDR6bn investment) should help expose ACES to the e-commerce platform, which is experiencing an increased consumption shift. On the cost front, ACES may see higher imported goods prices if the yuan were to weaken against the USD (5% of products are from China, although payments are in USD). On valuation, we have a new 12M TP of IDR85, based on a 217F PER of 22x, a 12% discount to the sector s target multiple of 25x. With slight downside potential and continued operating challenges, we retain our HOLD rating on ACES. Risks: continued weak SSSG and stronger USD. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 4,541 4,743 5,59 5,513 6,73 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Ace Hardware store (unit) Toys Kingdom (unit) SSSG (%) 3.1 (1.8) Total avg. rev./sqm (IDR mn) Richard Danusaputra (richard@bahana.co.id) ext.365 *New, please refer to appendix II Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,4/73 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,6/1,16 Majority shareholder (%) : PT Kawan Lama Sejahtera (6.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 17,15/4. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 14,921/1,17 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 3.6/.3 Bloomberg/Reuters code : ACES IJ/ACES.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 148

149 217 Compendium ACE HARDWARE INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 4,541 4,743 5,59 5,513 6,73 Gross profit 2,194 2,254 2,414 2,619 2,891 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (36) (32) (23) (28) (31) Forex gain/(losses) 4 16 (2) - - Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (136) (152) (165) (165) (183) Minority interest 6 3 (5) 2 2 Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories 1,296 1,522 1,716 1,945 2,143 Fixed assets Other assets Total assets 2,958 3,268 3,653 4,12 4,448 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,325 2,628 2,94 3,285 3,664 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net profit Depreciation Working capital (89) (243) (243) (213) (225) Other operating items (13) (12) (13) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (95) (7) (159) (157) (81) Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought) - (19) Net borrowings (9) (4) Other financing (265) (23) (247) (338) (293) Net cash flow Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) NC NC NC NC NC Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

150 217 Compendium ADARO ENERGY BUY PX: IDR1,63 - TP: IDR2,1* ADRO, Indonesia s No.1 single site coal producer with total coal production of 54mt in 216, is on track by 22 to complete its first 2x1 MW thermal power plant in Batang, central Java. Looking ahead, we believe this powerplant project, valued at IDR56/share, could add another USD24mn to ADRO s earnings starting in 219. Spending USD12mn for a 75% stake in IndoMet Coal has provided exposure to 1.27Bt of coking coal resources, which we estimate will provide up to 1mt pa of added coking coal production, or USD218mn in annual revenue starting in 217 (8.4% of total). However, to be conservative, we have not factored this acquisition into our model. Our new SOTP-based TP of IDR2,1 values the Batang power plant at IDR56 (ADRO owns 34%) on a USD WACC of 2.5% and ADRO s coal business at IDR1,82, based on a 1.8% WACC and LTG of.5%. Risks to our call relate to China s coal policy and stronger IDR. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (USDmn) 3,325 2,684 2,581 2,696 2,844 EBIT (USDmn) Net profit (USDmn) Bahana/consensus(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (12.5) (2.6) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) 1,27 1,29 1,274 1,344 1,424 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 2, 2, 1,8 1,6 15, 1,4 1,2 1, 1, 8 5, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) ADRO IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M ADRO IJ relative to JCI Andrew Hotama (andrew.franklin@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II (') Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales volume (mt) Benchmark price (in USD/ton) ADRO s ASP (in USD/ton) Oil price (USD/barrell) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,735/437 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,1/1,2 Majority shareholder (%) : PT Adaro Strategic (43.9) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 31,986/42.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 52,137/3,834 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 78.9/5.8 Bloomberg/Reuters code : ADRO IJ/ADRO JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 15

151 217 Compendium ADARO ENERGY Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 3,325 2,684 2,581 2,696 2,844 Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (164) (49) (46) (31) (22) Forex gain/(losses) (13) (16) (11) - - Other income/(expense) (57) (65) (55) (68) (6) Pre-tax profit Taxes (138) (129) (215) (242) (244) Minority interest (5) 1 (2) (2) (2) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 3,715 3,494 3,417 3,349 3,382 Other assets 1,571 1,494 1,622 1,687 1,775 Total assets 6,414 5,959 6,15 5,983 6,237 Interest bearing liabilities 1,881 1,552 1,63 1,391 1,31 Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 3,154 2,66 2,675 2,4 2,471 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,768 2,866 3,18 3,184 3,375 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital 17 (119) (4) (8) (12) Other operating items (424) (261) (329) (345) (331) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (325) (329) 78 (24) (9) Other financing (32) Net cash flow 64 (43) 16 (65) 33 Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

152 217 Compendium ADHI KARYA BUY PX: IDR2, TP: IDR3,5* State-owned ADHI, the fourth-largest construction company by market cap in our coverage, is set to develop the long-awaited Greater Jakarta light-rail-transit (LRT) project. Despite the appointment delay, this LRT project should positively affect not only ADHI s construction sales but also its property and precast businesses. In 217, we expect ADHI to divest its stake in the property business, Adhi Persada Properti (APP), through an IPO, and experience stronger growth in its property unit. APP has several projects in its pipeline, including Grand Dhika City Bekasi and Grand Dhika Jatiwarna, boosting its growth potential. ADHI s recent negative share-price performance should reverse on improving EPS growth from upcoming infrastructure projects. Our new TP of IDR3,5 is based on a 15x 217F PER, a 25% sector discount, sufficient to factor in execution risks and possible lower LRT margins. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 8,654 9,39 16,177 21,268 24,18 EBIT (IDRbn) ,2 1,69 1,864 Net profit (IDRbn) ,2 Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (19.) 16.6 (11.2) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (855) (113) (496) FCF yield (%) (42.8) (5.6) (24.8) BVPS (IDR) 911 1,45 1,613 1,812 2,51 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 3, 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2, 1,8 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 (2.) (9.4) Volume (RHS) ADHI IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (24.8) (3.5) (32.3) (26.3) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M ADHI IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext.368 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (1) (2) (3) (4) Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Carried over (IDRbn) 8,745 9,9 14,782 26,53 32,76 New contracts (IDRbn) 9,218 13,962 27,924 27,366 26,818 New contracts growth (%) (15.1) (2.) (2.) Total order books (IDRbn) 17,963 23,862 42,76 53,868 59,525 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,91/1,955 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 3,5/2,55 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (51.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 3,561/49. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 7,122/528 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 4.1/2.8 Bloomberg/Reuters code : ADHI IJ/ADHI.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 152

153 217 Compendium ADHI KARYA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 8,654 9,39 16,177 21,268 24,18 Gross profit 1,9 1,7 1,822 2,423 2,79 EBITDA ,239 1,655 1,918 Depreciation (24) EBIT ,2 1,69 1,864 Net interest inc./(expense) (13) (86) (73) (134) (123) Forex gain/(losses) (5) - - Other income/(expense) (51) Pre-tax profit ,16 1,484 1,748 Taxes (268) (281) (486) (639) (726) Minority interest (3) (1) (1) (1) (1) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit ,2 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 811 4,317 3,454 2,95 2,938 S-T investments Trade receivables 2,896 3,311 3,479 4,384 5,121 Inventories Fixed assets 857 1,477 1,728 1,972 2,29 Other assets 5,762 7,493 11,831 14,55 15,967 Total assets 1,459 16,761 2,716 24,15 26,567 Interest bearing liabilities 2,269 3,119 4,115 3,615 3,49 Trade payables 4,923 6,489 7,9 1,376 11,777 Other liabilities 1,626 1,991 2,958 3,66 3,995 Total liabilities 8,818 11,599 14,973 17,652 19,263 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 1,641 5,162 5,743 6,453 7,35 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT ,2 1,69 1,864 Depreciation (24) Working capital (773) 1,34 (927) Other operating items (97) (93) (767) (839) (1,11) Operating cash flow (1,114) 746 (455) 951 1,45 Net capital expenditure (426) (1,147) (1,313) (82) (764) Free cash flow (1,541) (41) (1,768) Equity raised/(bought) 3 3, Net borrowings (375) - Other financing (151) (71) (92) (259) (293) Net cash flow (1,129) 3,56 (863) (54) (12) Cash balances, beginning 1, ,317 3,454 2,95 Ending cash 811 4,317 3,454 2,95 2,938 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) 88.8 nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

154 217 Compendium ADI SARANA ARMADA BUY PX: IDR199 - TP: IDR28* ASSA, Indonesia s second-largest car rental company, is expected to benefit from price improvements in the secondary car market, particularly Toyota Avanza and Daihatsu Xenia. As a result, we expect 36.8% y-y revenue growth for ASSA s used car segment in 217. Also, we now look for a higher earnings contribution from ASSA s car auction segment, BidWin, which had recently undertaken a major expansion. For ASSA s rental segment, we expect stable earnings supported by long-term corporate rent contracts, in line with recent outsourcing trends in various companies to achieve cost efficiency. We expect share-price catalysts from improved Avanza-Xenia used car prices as well as BidWin s strong performance. Thus, we reiterate our BUY call with a new 12M TP of IDR28 on a 217F PE of 11.9x, a 1% discount to regional peers. Risks would be lower-than-expected used car prices, lower utilization rates and fewer expansion fleets. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 1,14 1,393 1,516 1,752 2,83 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (53.3) (2.5) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (78) (89) 9 (74) (63) FCF yield (%) (39) (45) 5 (37) (32) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) (') 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Fleet size (units) 14,873 17,991 18,991 21,991 24,991 Utilization rate (%) Unit of disposal (units) 1,793 2,337 2,5 3, 3, ASP used cars (IDRmn) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) ASSA IJ Px Last (%) (%) (2) (2.3) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 63.2 ASSA IJ relative to JCI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 *New, please refer to appendix II (2) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 24/96 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 32/9 Majority shareholder (%) : Adi Dinamika Investindo (24.9) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 3,398/37.4 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 67/5 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 1.3/.1 Bloomberg/Reuters code : ASSA IJ/ASSA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 154

155 217 Compendium ADI SARANA ARMADA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,14 1,393 1,516 1,752 2,83 Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (139) (171) (185) (21) (224) Forex gain/(losses) () Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) 2 (1) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 2,193 2,538 2,543 2,896 3,251 Other assets Total assets 2,57 2,893 3,73 3,499 3,893 Interest bearing liabilities 1,456 1,784 1,934 2,214 2,414 Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 1,669 2,38 2,186 2,554 2,861 Minority interest Shareholders' equity ,32 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (6) (5) (9) (19) (23) Other operating items (166) (124) (188) (182) (22) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (566) (679) (379) (741) (793) Free cash flow (267) (34) 32 (253) (214) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings Other financing (32) (19) (13) (24) (36) Net cash flow (4) (5) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

156 217 Compendium AKR CORPORINDO BUY PX: IDR6,625 - TP: IDR8,* We expect Indonesia s leading private petroleum distributor, AKRA, to see an earnings turnaround in 217. We look for volume upside from rising mining activities on a significant rebound in coal prices and higher Brent prices in 217 as OPEC finally decides to lower output. Note that the mining industry contributes 48% of AKRA s total sales. On the cost side, AKRA has retained and even improved its distribution margins during the decline in sales volume due to its fixed distributionfee scheme and higher operating efficiencies, which we think should lead to operating sustainability. In addition, we believe AKRA s recent expansion in the retail distribution segment will support earnings. As we expect 217 earnings to increase by 46% y-y, we reiterate our BUY rating with an SOTP-based 12M TP of IDR8,. Risks to our call include lower oil volume and delays at its East Java industrial estate. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 22,468 19,765 14,147 21,318 25,373 EBIT (IDRbn) 1,63 1,349 1,61 2,195 2,269 Net profit (IDRbn) 81 1,34 1,14 1,642 1,74 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) 1,383 1,546 1,739 2,45 2,349 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) AKRA IJ Px Last (%) (%) 1 5 (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (2.1) (3.9) (21.1) (2.3) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M AKRA IJ relative to JCI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1 5 (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ASP (IDR/litre) 9,681 6,667 4,28 6,353 6,878 growth % 11.3 (31.1) (35.8) Petroleum sales volume ( kl) 1,83 2,19 2,282 2,555 2,823 growth % (9.9) Oil Price (USD/barrel) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 8,45/5,725 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 7,98/6,65 Majority shareholder (%) : Arthakencana Rayatama (58.9) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 3,992/4.7 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 26,446/1,945 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 27.4/2. Bloomberg/Reuters code : AKRA IJ/AKRA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 156

157 217 Compendium AKR CORPORINDO Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 22,468 19,765 14,147 21,318 25,373 Gross profit 1,732 2,216 2,176 2,77 2,835 EBITDA 1,396 1,681 1,946 2,891 2,993 Depreciation EBIT 1,63 1,36 1,61 2,195 2,269 Net interest inc./(expense) (77) (25) (96) (91) (92) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) 8 (7) (74) Pre-tax profit 993 1,328 1,431 2,127 2,2 Taxes (23) (258) (344) (492) (58) Minority interest 2 (25) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 81 1,45 1,14 1,642 1,74 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 897 1,291 1,997 1,766 2,34 S-T investments Trade receivables 4,32 3,49 2,153 3,244 3,861 Inventories ,22 1,238 Fixed assets 4,39 4,469 5,945 6,243 6,12 Other assets 4,268 5,416 5,148 5,138 5,142 Total assets 14,79 15,23 15,9 17,414 18,288 Interest bearing liabilities 4,126 3,856 4,72 3,84 2,834 Trade payables 4,67 3,434 2,31 3,592 4,35 Other liabilities Total liabilities 8,824 7,917 7,892 8,246 7,965 Minority interest 571 1,196 1,157 1,112 1,68 Shareholders' equity 5,395 6,9 6,851 8,56 9,255 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1,63 1,349 1,61 2,195 2,269 Depreciation Working capital 1,657 (817) 747 (499) (41) Other operating items (245) (35) (473) (585) (64) Operating cash flow 2, ,221 1,87 1,988 Net capital expenditure (1,245) 387 (1,821) (995) (493) Free cash flow 1, ,495 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (1,19) (27) 846 (899) (97) Other financing (484) (415) (545) (145) (257) Net cash flow (231) 268 Cash flow at beginning ,291 1,997 1,766 Ending cash flow 88 1,291 1,997 1,766 2,34 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

158 217 Compendium ALAM SUTERA REALTY REDUCE* PX: IDR382 - TP: IDR3* Despite having a 1,898ha landbank, ASRI has been unable to monetize its assets given their unfavorable locations. Our negative view is also strengthened by its weak 9M16 pre-sales achievement of only IDR1.3tn, or just 26% of its IDR5tn full-year target (Bahana: IDR2tn) due to unsuccessful office launches. A share-price catalyst for ASRI would be its plan to increase recurring income to 1% in 217, supported by its mall expansions and the Garuda Wisnu Kencana theme park development. We expect ASRI s 216 net profit to increase by 17% y-y, backed by unrealized FX gains stemming from USD451mn in bonds. ASRI s lack of project launches and difficult-to-sell assets should lead to continued underperformance. Hence, we apply a 7% discount to NAV to derive our lower IDR3 TP. Lowering to REDUCE from Hold. Risks: higher-than-expected marketing sales, a stronger IDR. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 3,631 2,784 2,7 3,252 3,569 EBIT (IDRbn) 1,98 1,628 1,118 1,426 1,579 Net profit (IDRbn) 1, Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 25.2 (45.6) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (1) (33) (3) (13) 4 FCF yield (%) (26.3) (8.5) (.7) (3.3) 1. BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) (') 6 45, 55 4, 35, 5 3, 45 25, 2, 4 15, 35 1, 5, 3 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) ASRI IJ Px Last (%) (%) 5 (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (2.1) (13.3) (9.3) (22.) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M ASRI IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II. (1.4) 5 (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) NAV calculation 217F Land bank (Ha) 1,898 Total value (IDRbn) 3,517 NAV/share (IDR) 994 Discount (%) 7 Adjusted NAV/share (IDR) 3 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 585/317 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 7/34 Majority shareholder (%) : Tangerang Fajar Industrial (25.2) Share outstanding (m)/free float (%) : 19,649/56.1 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 7,56/555 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 2.1/1.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : ASRI IJ/ASRI.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 158

159 217 Compendium ALAM SUTERA REALTY Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 3,631 2,784 2,7 3,252 3,569 Gross profit 2,37 2,56 1,518 1,87 2,75 EBITDA 1,978 1,76 1,29 1,532 1,73 Depreciation EBIT 1,98 1,628 1,118 1,426 1,579 Net interest inc./(expense) (147) (121) (18) (162) (178) Forex gain/(losses) (138) (438) Other income/(expense) (191) (167) (192) (211) (243) Pre-tax profit 1, ,53 1,158 Taxes (254) (217) (23) (179) (196) Minority interest (8) (88) (97) (16) (117) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 1, Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories 3,751 5,55 5,74 6, 6,3 Fixed assets 958 1,97 1,169 1,258 1,365 Other assets 11,24 11,34 12,241 13,259 14,422 Total assets 16,924 18,79 19,828 21,3 22,916 Interest bearing liabilities 6,66 7,368 7,488 7,95 8,5 Trade payables 161 1, Other liabilities 3,786 3,77 5,46 5,395 6,194 Total liabilities 1,553 12,17 12,631 13,459 14,366 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 6,118 6,454 7,34 7,662 8,353 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1,98 1,628 1,118 1,426 1,579 Depreciation Working capital (869) (677) 21 (66) 385 Other operating items (1,341) (371) (488) (634) (768) Operating cash flow (233) ,32 Net capital expenditure (1,739) (1,295) (793) (1,8) (1,247) Free cash flow (1,972) (638) (51) (247) 73 Equity raised/(bought) - (123) Net borrowings 2, Other financing (57) (243) (15) (123) (137) Net cash flow (9) (242) (35) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

160 217 Compendium ANABATIC TECHNOLOGIES BUY PX: IDR685 - TP: IDR75* With expected GDP growth improvement, we look for ATIC, a leading fully integrated IT company, to enjoy higher revenue growth as some large banks are due to upgrade their 2-year-old core legacy banking IT systems. Given Indonesia s low bank account penetration rate (2%), ATIC should benefit from new branchless banking regulations specifically aimed at serving customers in remote areas. The government s proactive moves in extending formal financial access to the unbanked sections of the country are set to benefit from banks additional ITrelated capex. Based on what we see as an attractive 3-year outlook, we maintain our positive call on the stock with a TP of IDR75, based on a simple average 1Y DCF valuation and 217F PER of 35x, at par with regional peers. Risks: Banks delaying core system upgrades and IDR depreciation. Share price performance (IDR) (') 75 6, 7 5, 65 4, 6 3, 55 2, 5 1, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) ATIC IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1.1) (1) (1) (2) (17.7) (15.5) (2) (3) (3) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M ATIC IJ relative to JCI Renaldy Effendy (renaldy@bahana.co.id) ext. 366 *New, please refer to appendix II Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 2,57 2,957 3,424 3,897 4,387 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) - - na na na EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 6.4 (47.7) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (11) (143) (96) (44) (5.8) FCF yield (%) (1.6) (2.9) (14.) (6.4) (.9) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F IT industry growth (%) IT spending/gdp (%) Smartphone users (mn people) Internet penetration rate (%) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 735/461 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : na/na Majority shareholder (%) : Artha Investama Jaya (39.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,875/21.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 1,284/95 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) :.1/. Bloomberg/Reuters code : ATIC IJ/ATIC.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 16

161 217 Compendium ANABATIC TECHNOLOGIES Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 2,57 2,957 3,424 3,897 4,387 Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation 19 (134) EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (33) (42) (51) (59) (61) Forex gain/(losses) 16 (3) Other income/(expense) (2) (1) (1) (1) Pre-tax profit Taxes (31) (31) (37) (4) (43) Minority interest (21) (24) (36) (37) (38) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets Other assets Total assets 1,978 2,28 2,727 3,27 3,286 Interest bearing liabilities ,13 1,129 1,24 Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 1,572 1,578 1,991 2,236 2,437 Minority interest Shareholders' equity Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation 19 (134) Working capital 1 (79) (231) (154) (118) Other operating items (35) (87) (64) (78) (82) Operating cash flow 123 (134) (92) 3 49 Net capital expenditure (139) (18) (87) (85) (6) Free cash flow (16) (242) (179) (82) (11) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings Other financing (3) (86) (7) (56) (59) Net cash flow 11 (5) (36) (22) 5 Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

162 ANEKA TAMBANG REDUCE* PX: IDR975 TP: IDR83* Indonesia s leading diversified metals and mining company, ANTM, has endured bad times and now looks ready to see improved performance in the next 3 years. ANTM is on track to finish ores smelters with varying commercial operation dates from Upon its smelter completion, ANTM can utilize its ores, which are banned for export. At this stage, we forecast higher y-y average nickel and gold prices in 217 to boost ANTM s revenue by 24.5% y-y. On top of that, the completion of ANTM s Pomalaa expansion project would expand its 218 nickel production to 27,, a 4% rise over 216F production. Overall, we expect improved results for ANTM, particularly on lower costs due to the use of its own electricity and higher metal prices supporting profitability. We value ANTM s existing businesses using a DCF valuation with a WACC of 7.2%, translating into a new IDR83 TP. Risks to our call: Fed rate hikes and and Philippines mine reopenings. Financial highlights* 217 Compendium Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 9,421 1,532 1,371 12,917 14,293 EBIT (IDRbn) (137) (71) (135) Net profit (IDRbn) (744) (1,441) Bahana/consensus (%) na na 119 EPS (IDR) (66) (12) EPS growth (%) (29.4) (83.9) EV/EBITDA (x) , P/E (x) (14.9) (8.1) FCFPS (IDR) (124) (168) (5) (113) (72) FCF yield (%) (12.7) (17.2) (5.1) (11.6) (7.4) BVPS (IDR) 1,62 1, P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%).2.2 note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 1,2 1, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) ANTM IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M ANTM IJ relative to JCI Andrew Hotama (andrew.franklin@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II 5 (') 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Gold sales volume (ton) Ferronickel sales volume (tni) 19,89 18,62 2, 24, 26, Gold ASP (USD/oz) 1,28 1,216 1,271 1,316 1,325 Nickel ASP (USD/ton) 15,531 9,94 9,85 12,5 12,5 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 99/285 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 99/265 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (65.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 24,31/35. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 23,43/1,723 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 13.6/7.6 Bloomberg/Reuters code : ANTM IJ/ANTM.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 162

163 217 Compendium ANEKA TAMBANG Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 9,421 1,532 1,371 12,917 14,293 Gross profit ,421 1,715 EBITDA ,167 1,362 Depreciation EBIT (137) (71) (135) Net interest inc./(expense) (58) (173) (14) (14) (151) Forex gain/(losses) (118) (29) Other income/(expense) (478) (55) Pre-tax profit (791) (1,669) Taxes (157) (63) (88) Minority interest () () () () Net profit (744) (1,441) Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 2,619 8,87 7,218 4,832 3,459 Trade receivables 1, Inventories 1,762 1,753 1,982 2,362 2,584 Fixed assets 14,46 17,349 18,25 2,228 21,88 Other assets 2,149 2,72 2,641 3,313 3,614 Total assets 22,4 3,357 3,67 31,549 32,366 Interest bearing liabilities 8,15 1,11 1,449 1,824 11,241 Trade payables Other liabilities 1,252 1,26 1,252 1,489 1,69 Total liabilities 9,954 12,4 12,39 13,38 13,642 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 12,5 18,317 18,361 18,511 18,724 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT (137) (71) (135) Depreciation Working capital (439) (661) (284) Other operating items (494) (1,321) 22 (346) (352) Operating cash flow 581 (716) Net capital expenditure 1,984 1,288 1,568 2,884 2,463 Free cash flow (1,43) (2,4) (1,199) (2,724) (1,736) Equity raised/(bought) - 1, Net borrowings 1,23 2, Other financing () 3,928 (8) (38) (53) Net cash flow (174) 5,468 (869) (2,386) (1,373) Cash flow at beginning 2,793 2,619 8,87 7,218 4,832 Ending cash flow 2,619 8,87 7,218 4,832 3,459 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) (6.) (9.5) ROAA (%) (3.4) (5.5) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) (1.5) (6.7) (1.3) Net margin (%) (7.9) (13.7) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

164 217 Compendium ASTRA AGRO LESTARI BUY PX: IDR15,6 - TP: IDR2,25 AALI, one of the largest listed oil palm planters in the world with c.3k ha of planted area, continues to expand its downstream business by developing a PKO refinery, which is scheduled to be completed by end-216. The refinery would allow AALI to produce and export RBDPKO, a main ingredient for liquid detergent and shampoo. On its oil palm estate in Kumai, Central Kalimantan, AALI has forayed into the cattle breeding business, with over 2, cows as of 9M16. The number of livestock is expected to reach 5, cows in the next 1-2 years, before diversifying into the cattle fattening business. We expect 217 earnings to increase 24% y-y to IDR1.8tn, mainly on a positive CPO price outlook. Hence, we reiterate our BUY rating and 12M TP of IDR2,25, based on a 217F PE of 17.8x, a c.2% discount to Malaysian peers. Risks to our call include lower-than-expected CPO prices and demand. Share price performance (IDR) (') 18, 4, 17, 3, 16, 2, 15, 14, 1, 13, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) AALI IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2.9) (1) (1.2) (2) (16.1) (2) (3) (27.3) (3) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M AALI IJ relative to JCI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 *New, please refer to appendix II Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 16,36 13,59 13,859 15,347 17,469 EBIT (IDRbn) 3,722 1,853 2,28 2,926 4, Net profit (IDRbn) 2, ,447 1,79 2,516 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) 1, ,137 1,598 EPS growth (%) 39. (75.3) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (558) (1,823) ,414 FCF yield (%) (3.6) (11.7) BVPS (IDR) 7,249 7,166 7,879 8,535 9,537 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F FFB production nucleus (k tons) 5,551 5,61 5,32 5,555 6,65 Growth (%) (5.) CPO production (k tons) 1,744 1,65 1,564 1,555 1,783 Growth (%) 13.3 (5.4) (5.2) (.6) 14.6 CPO price (USD/ton) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 18,625/13,125 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 21,43/16,44 Majority shareholder (%) : Astra International (79.7) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,575/2.3 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 29,767/2,28 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 45./3.3 Bloomberg/Reuters code : AALI IJ/AALI.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 164

165 217 Compendium ASTRA AGRO LESTARI Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 16,36 13,59 13,859 15,347 17,469 Gross profit 4,952 3,82 3,298 4,362 5,6 EBITDA 4,45 2,738 3,199 4,53 5,197 Depreciation ,171 1,127 1,197 EBIT 3,722 1,853 2,28 2,926 4, Net interest inc./(expense) (73) (98) (145) (134) (18) Forex gain/(losses) (127) (58) Other income/(expense) 147 (5) (5) (5) (6) Pre-tax profit 3,69 1,176 2,264 2,786 3,886 Taxes (1,69) (48) (747) (919) (1,282) Minority interest (118) (77) (69) (77) (87) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 2, ,447 1,79 2,516 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories 1,278 1,692 1,92 1,997 2,158 Fixed assets 14,342 16,48 16,934 16,798 16,321 Other assets 2,294 3,433 3,793 4,485 5,361 Total assets 18,558 21,512 23,87 23,699 24,351 Interest bearing liabilities 4,427 7,733 8,33 7,333 6,33 Trade payables Other liabilities 1,376 1,347 1,459 1,634 1,86 Total liabilities 6,726 9,814 1,196 9,699 8,685 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 11,415 11,285 12,48 13,44 15,19 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 3,722 1,853 2,28 2,926 4, Depreciation ,171 1,127 1,197 Working capital (746) (766) (425) (53) (94) Other operating items (98) (2,252) (71) (1,657) (2,156) Operating cash flow 2,724 (279) 2,64 2,343 2,947 Net capital expenditure (3,62) (2,591) (2,57) (99) (72) Free cash flow (878) (2,87) 7 1,352 2,227 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 1,74 3,36 3 (7) (1,3) Other financing (923) (753) (255) (681) (85) Net cash flow (97) (318) 52 (29) 77 Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

166 217 Compendium ASTRA INTERNATIONAL BUY PX: IDR7,775 - TP: IDR1, In 217, we expect ASII, Indonesia s biggest auto player, to benefit from solid 4W sales performance due to growing domestic demand on improved purchasing power as well as a higher market share supported by several new products in the LCGC segment. We expect ASII s auto margin to improve on growing 4W (64k, +13% y-y) and 2W (4.7mn, +6% y-y) volume in 217. At this stage, we also expect ASII s financing business to recover, helped by solid auto growth and recovering NPLs. For its commodityrelated segments, we look for ASII to benefit from solid coal and CPO prices that should boost the performance of its subsidiaries. As we expect an economic recovery in 217, we believe ASII s recent market outperformance should be sustainable. We maintain our BUY rating and SOTP-based TP of IDR1,, reflecting a 217F PE of 2.x. Risks to our call include lower-than-expected auto sales. Share price performance (IDR) 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) ASII IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) 16.1 (.2) (3.5) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 12.1 ASII IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext. 368 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 15, 1, 5, (5) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 21,71 184, ,73 28,53 229,583 EBIT (IDRbn) 2,163 17,212 16,456 2,259 22,579 Net profit (IDRbn) 19,181 14,464 16,235 2,626 22,914 Bahana/consensus(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (1.2) (24.6) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) 2,362 2,521 2,745 3,74 3,41 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F 4W sales volume (units) 614,169 51, , 693,68 763,48 4W market share (%) 51% 5% 54% 58% 58% 2W sales volume (k units) 5,51 4,454 4,364 4,594 4,79 2W market share (%) 64% 69% 74% 76% 76% Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 8,875/5,7 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,/6,2 Majority shareholder (%) : Jardine Cycle & Carriage L (5.1) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 4,484/45.1 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 312,52/23,144 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 278.6/2.7 Bloomberg/Reuters code : ASII IJ/ASII.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 166

167 217 Compendium ASTRA INTERNATIONAL Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 21,71 184, ,73 28,53 229,583 Gross profit 38,89 36,71 35,424 41,397 45,841 EBITDA 27,588 28,17 23,974 28,83 31,182 Depreciation 7,425 1,895 7,518 7,823 8,63 EBIT 2,163 17,212 16,456 2,259 22,579 Net interest inc./(expense) (63) Forex gain/(losses) (126) (291) (12) - - Other income/(expense) 7,164 2,564 7,419 9,37 1,233 Pre-tax profit 27,352 19,63 23,691 29,836 33,233 Taxes (5,227) (4,17) (4,61) (5,612) (6,327) Minority interest (2,944) (1,149) (2,855) (3,598) (3,993) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 19,181 14,464 16,235 2,626 22,914 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 2,92 27,12 27,537 29,63 33,74 S-T investments Trade receivables 24,462 21,277 21,53 24,567 27,47 Inventories 16,986 18,337 17,272 2,148 22,15 Fixed assets 61,336 58,545 6,324 63,67 64,349 Other assets 112,66 119,69 128, ,265 15,69 Total assets 236,29 245, , ,78 297,918 Interest bearing liabilities 7,72 7,649 68,334 68,811 68,342 Trade payables 18,839 2,557 19,627 22,895 25,17 Other liabilities 26,794 27,696 29,26 32,8 34,634 Total liabilities 115,75 118,92 117, , ,146 Minority interest 24,713 24,49 26,939 29,633 31,77 Shareholders' equity 95,611 12,43 111, , ,65 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 2,163 17,212 16,456 2,259 22,579 Depreciation 7,425 1,895 7,518 7,823 8,63 Working capital (2,62) 3, (3,122) (2,27) Other operating items (2,928) (4,467) (1,725) (1,244) (1,536) Operating cash flow 22,4 27,192 22,69 23,717 27,439 Net capital expenditure (15,86) (11,715) (13,182) (15,377) (14,43) Free cash flow 6,234 15,477 9,427 8,34 13,396 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 5, (2,315) 477 (469) Other financing (9,438) (9,854) (6,677) (6,724) (9,482) Net cash flow 2,345 6, ,93 3,444 Cash balances, beginning 18,557 2,92 27,12 27,537 29,63 Ending cash 2,92 27,12 27,537 29,63 33,74 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

168 217 Compendium BANK BUKOPIN BUY PX: IDR63 - TP: IDR1, In 217, BBKP expects synergies with the Bosowa group, its new owner since 214, to kick in as BBKP s banking platform is used to consolidate the e-banking needs of Bosowa s auto and property industry suppliers. The bank has been reducing its low-yielding loan exposure to Bullog, the state-owned food security agency, while continuing to grow its exposure to the micro segment though partnerships with the military and police (direct micro lending), Taspen & Asabri (pensioner loans partners), Swamitra (micro loans partners), as well as payroll loans. As the economy recovers, BBKP s earnings should surpise on the upside, as strategic initatives (i.e., Bosowa and loan mix shift) are essentially NIM- and ROA-accretive, but are currently being masked by BBKP s NPL cycle. BUY with a new IDR1, TP, or 1.x 217F P/BV. Risk: Failure to manage SME-related quality loans. Share price performance (IDR) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) BBKP IJ Px Last (%) (%) 2 1 (1) (2) (3) (23.5) (.7) (8.7) (22.) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BBKP IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 (') 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2 1 (1) (2) (3) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net interest income (IDRbn) 2,473 2,897 3,251 3,72 4,188 Operating income (IDRbn) 3,56 4,193 4,668 5,237 5,865 Operating profit (IDRbn) 872 1,173 1,378 1,579 1,798 Pre-tax profit (IDRbn) 899 1,179 1,385 1,587 1,87 Net profit (IDRbn) ,56 1,21 1,378 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (36.) P/E (x) Equity (IDRbn) 6,786 7,511 8,278 9,278 1,414 BVPS (IDR) ,21 1,146 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loan growth Deposit growth Non interest inc./operating inc Corporate tax rate Payout ratio Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 745/515 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 83/64 Majority shareholder (%) : Bosowa Corp (3.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 9,87/4.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 5,725/425 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 2.7/.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : BBKP IJ/BBKP.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 168

169 217 Compendium BANK BUKOPIN Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Interest income 7,93 8,34 8,726 9,18 9,647 Interest expense 4,62 5,47 5,475 5,316 5,459 Net interest income 2,473 2,897 3,251 3,72 4,188 Non-interest income 1,86 1,296 1,418 1,535 1,677 Total operating income 3,56 4,193 4,668 5,237 5,865 Operating expenses 2,397 2,561 2,927 3,316 3,711 Loan loss provisions Operating profit 872 1,173 1,378 1,579 1,798 Non-operating inc./(exp.) Pre-tax profit 899 1,179 1,385 1,587 1,87 Corporate tax (226) (214) (325) (373) (425) Minorities (2) (4) (4) (4) (4) Net profit ,56 1,21 1,378 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loans 55,232 66,14 72,586 8,385 89,22 Cash on hand 1, ,16 1,437 1,868 Fixed assets 1,519 1,757 2,196 2,745 3,432 Other assets 21,289 25,745 31,995 33,86 38,968 Total assets 79,63 94,367 17, , ,47 Customer deposits 65,391 76,164 79,561 84,377 9,31 Deposits from other banks 2,7 1,962 2,256 2,594 2,983 Borrowing and sub-debts 3,777 7,288 6,425 6,825 7,277 Other liabilities 1,73 1,418 11,335 15,321 22,741 Total liabilities 72,248 86,831 99,577 19, ,32 Minorities Equity 6,786 7,511 8,278 9,278 1,414 Total liabilities and equity 79,63 94,367 17, , ,47 Breakdown Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F % to earnings assets Gross loans Government bonds Other earnings assets % to loan portfolio Loans to bulog Commercial MSME Consumer % to total deposits Core funding Time deposits Key ratios Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAA ROAE NIM Loan/deposit ratio Loan/funding ratio Cost efficiency ratio CIR Gross NPL NPL coverage LLR CAR-total CAR-tier I

170 217 Compendium BANK CENTRAL ASIA HOLD PX: IDR14,7 - TP: IDR15,1 As the No.1 gateway bank for tax amnesty, BBCA is poised to receive the most repatriated funds from the program in 216, strengthening its liquidity position with an LDR of 78% and making it the only bank with an LDR below 9% in 217. Thus, we look for BBCA to cherry-pick the most optimum risk-adjusted loan demand in 217. Going into 217, we forecast BBCA to be more aggressive on lending, booking loan growth closer to our industry forecast of 8.1% y-y vs 5.6% y-y in 216 and the sector s 6-8% y-y. We also expect BBCA s provisioning and NPLs to normalize in 217 and 218 as economic growth improves. We believe BBCA s tone towards risk will incrementally improve as NPLs in its finance subsidiary normalize. At this stage, we continue to price BBCA at a premium to the industry given management s prudence and the bank s superior balance sheet. Our IDR15,1 is based on a 3x 217F PBV. Risk: Slower economy. Share price performance (IDR) 16, 15, 14, 13, 12, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) BBCA IJ Px Last (%) (%) (2) (.) (2) (4) (3.) (2.4) (4) (6) (5.6) (6) (8) (8) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BJTM IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 (') 6, 4, 2, Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net interest income (IDRbn) 32,49 35,892 39,875 41,514 44,625 Operating income (IDRbn) 44,369 51,413 56,466 6,311 66,37 Operating profit (IDRbn) 2,741 22,657 25,124 27,915 32,78 Pre-tax profit (IDRbn) 2,741 22,657 25,124 27,915 32,78 Net profit (IDRbn) 16,486 18,19 2,79 22,39 25,636 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) ,4 EPS growth (%) P/E (x) Equity (IDRbn) 75,488 89,369 15,54 123, ,697 BVPS (IDR) 3,62 3,625 4,279 5,14 5,869 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loan growth Deposit growth Non interest inc./operating inc Corporate tax rate Payout ratio Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 16,2/12,375 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 18,/13,25 Majority shareholder (%) : Farindo Investment Mauritius (47.2) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 24,655/5.9 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 362,429/26,88 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 281.8/2.9 Bloomberg/Reuters code : BBCA IJ/BBCA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 17

171 217 Compendium BANK CENTRAL ASIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Interest income 43,793 47,15 5,523 51,364 54,339 Interest expense 11,745 11,213 1,648 9,85 9,714 Net interest income 32,49 35,892 39,875 41,514 44,625 Non-interest income 12,32 15,522 16,591 18,797 21,413 Total operating income 44,369 51,413 56,466 6,311 66,37 Operating expenses 18,427 21,799 24,594 25,941 27,941 Loan loss provisions 5,21 6,958 6,748 6,455 6,18 Operating profit 2,741 22,657 25,124 27,915 32,78 Non-operating inc./(exp.) Pre-tax profit 2,741 22,657 25,124 27,915 32,78 Corporate tax (4,229) (4,621) (5,25) (5,583) (6,416) Minorities (26) (17) (2) (23) (26) Net profit 16,486 18,19 2,79 22,39 25,636 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loans 348,694 39, , , ,43 Cash on hand 19,578 17,849 18,742 19,679 2,663 Fixed assets 8,845 9,712 12,7 14,813 18,242 Other assets 176,39 176, , ,36 273,287 Total assets 553, , ,261 77, ,235 Customer deposits 45, ,82 51,64 556,98 69,488 Deposits from other banks 3,754 4,156 4,639 5,222 5,93 Borrowing and sub-debts 3,81 1,85 1,833 1,925 2,21 Other liabilities 2,44 21,967 13,46 19,679 33,776 Total liabilities 477,43 54,748 53, , ,214 Minorities Equity 75,488 89,369 15,54 123, ,697 Total liabilities and equity 553, , ,261 77, ,235 Breakdown Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F % to earnings assets Gross loans Government bonds Other earnings assets % to loan portfolio Corporate Commercial & SME Consumer Mortgage % to total deposits Core funding Time deposits Key ratios Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAA ROAE NIM Loan/deposit ratio Loan/funding ratio Cost efficiency ratio CIR Gross NPL NPL coverage LLR CAR-total CAR-tier I

172 217 Compendium BANK DANAMON BUY PX: IDR3,55 - TP: IDR4, At this stage of the market cycle, we believe BDMN s lending franchise is likely to attain some stabilization due to (1) its financing business focused on autos likely bottoming out in 216, driven by volume demand growth and peaking NPLs; and (2) efforts to rationalize branches and costs with regard to its micro lending franchise. We expect BDMN to continue its reliance on expensive deposits and wholesale funding, causing lending growth to outstrip the funding side of the business. As such, we forecast its ROE and ROA to trend back to historical averages slowly driven by (1) declining CoF on lower industry deposit rates and (2) a peaking NPL cycle in 217. BDMN is a now a BUY as an economic recovery should support key metrics such as loan growth, NIM and NPLs to reverse and move towards historical averages. Our new IDR4, TP is based on a 1.x 217F P/BV, in line with other small banks. Risk: Higher funding costs. Share price performance (IDR) 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) BDMN IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) (2.5) (.9) (1) (6.9) (15) (2) (15.5) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BDMN IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bahana.co.id) ext (') 35, 28, 21, 14, 7, (5) (1) (15) (2) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net interest income (IDRbn) 13,774 13,887 13,957 14,115 14,49 Operating income (IDRbn) 19,452 18,638 19,1 19,597 2,245 Operating profit (IDRbn) 4,63 3,944 4,66 5,241 5,886 Pre-tax profit (IDRbn) 3,554 3,282 3,913 4,514 5,125 Net profit (IDRbn) 2,64 2,393 2,912 3,312 3,718 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (35.6) (8.1) P/E (x) Equity (IDRbn) 32,49 33,932 36,126 38,565 41,289 BVPS (IDR) 3,381 3,54 3,769 4,23 4,38 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loan growth 2.6 (6.8) (2.8) Deposit growth 6.7 (1.2) (1.3) Non interest inc./operating inc Corporate tax rate Payout ratio Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 4,22/2,775 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 4,85/2,5 Majority shareholder (%) : Asia Financial (67.4) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 9,585/32.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 34,25/2,524 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 8.6/.6 Bloomberg/Reuters code : BDMN IJ/BDMN.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 172

173 217 Compendium BANK DANAMON Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Interest income 22,75 22,421 22,46 21,72 21,827 Interest expense 8,976 8,534 8,88 7,588 7,338 Net interest income 13,774 13,887 13,957 14,115 14,49 Non-interest income 5,678 4,751 5,52 5,482 5,755 Total operating income 19,452 18,638 19,1 19,597 2,245 Operating expenses 11,42 9,612 9,553 9,728 9,926 Loan loss provisions 3,986 5,82 4,851 4,628 4,433 Operating profit 4,63 3,944 4,66 5,241 5,886 Non-operating inc./(exp.) (51) (662) (694) (727) (761) Pre-tax profit 3,554 3,282 3,913 4,514 5,125 Corporate tax (871) (812) (914) (1,12) (1,291) Minorities (79) (76) (87) (1) (115) Net profit 2,64 2,393 2,912 3,312 3,718 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loans 137, ,95 124, ,24 126,827 Cash on hand 2,856 2,728 3,137 3,68 4,149 Fixed assets 5,137 5,219 6,2 6,92 7,937 Other assets 5,349 52,16 5,643 52,95 56,41 Total assets 195, ,57 184, , ,315 Customer deposits 116, , , , ,687 Deposits from other banks 2,429 1,827 2,9 2,29 2,43 Borrowing and sub-debts 34,824 28,37 27,521 27,12 26,775 Other liabilities 9,426 8,837 4,653 4,819 5,659 Total liabilities 163, , ,86 149,74 153,551 Minorities Equity 32,49 33,932 36,126 38,565 41,289 Total liabilities and equity 195, ,57 184, , ,315 Breakdown Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F % to earnings assets Gross loans Government bonds Other earnings assets % to loan portfolio Corporate Commercial Retail Mass market % to total deposits Core funding Time deposits Key ratios Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAA ROAE NIM Loan/deposit ratio Loan/funding ratio Cost efficiency ratio CIR Gross NPL NPL coverage LLR CAR-total CAR-tier I

174 217 Compendium BANK MANDIRI BUY PX: IDR1,9 - TP: IDR12,35 In 217, BMRI, Indonesia s largest bank by assets, should grow in line with industry growth with a slight edge in the corporate and consumer segments. BMRI continues to compete for government and SOE institutional businesses, in particular payroll management, which would then be cross-sold against its consumer banking products ranging from credit cards to autos and mortgages. We forecast 11.3% y-y loan growth and a 3.6% NPL in 217, reflecting improvements from 1.1% y-y loan growth and a 3.8% NPL in 216. Provisioning should normalize post 216 as kitchen-sinking ends and micro segment NPLs peak. We are already below consensus on our 217 net profit forecast of IDR17tn for BMRI. Also in line is our TP, set at a 1.8x 217F PBV vs. a 16% 217F ROE, resulting in an IDR12,35 valuation with 13.3% upside potential. Risks: Government policies, high low-margin infra-project financing. Share price performance (IDR) 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Volume (RHS) BMRI IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BMRI IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bahana.co.id) ext (') 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net interest income (IDRbn) 39,132 45,363 49,71 54,867 6,97 Operating income (IDRbn) 56,941 67,316 71,122 79,224 88,26 Operating profit (IDRbn) 25,978 26,339 15,969 22,958 27,589 Pre-tax profit (IDRbn) 26,8 26,369 16,3 22,995 27,63 Net profit (IDRbn) 19,872 2,335 11,842 17,267 2,778 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (41.8) P/E (x) Equity (IDRbn) 12, ,7 148, ,19 18,854 BVPS (IDR) 4,4 5,17 6,36 6,994 7,751 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loan growth Deposit growth Non interest inc./operating inc Corporate tax rate Payout ratio Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 11,95/8,45 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 13,7/8,896 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (6.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 23,333/4. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 254,333/18,863 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 229.7/17.4 Bloomberg/Reuters code : BMRI IJ/BMRI.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 174

175 217 Compendium BANK MANDIRI Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Interest income 62,638 71,57 72,763 77,677 84,227 Interest expense 23,56 26,27 23,54 22,81 23,256 Net interest income 39,132 45,363 49,71 54,867 6,97 Non-interest income 17,89 21,952 21,412 24,357 27,236 Total operating income 56,941 67,316 71,122 79,224 88,26 Operating expenses 25,233 29,151 33,396 38,11 43,389 Loan loss provisions 5,73 11,826 21,756 18,255 17,228 Operating profit 25,978 26,339 15,969 22,958 27,589 Non-operating inc./(exp.) Pre-tax profit 26,8 26,369 16,3 22,995 27,63 Corporate tax (5,353) (5,217) (3,21) (4,599) (5,526) Minorities (783) (817) (96) (1,129) (1,326) Net profit 19,872 2,335 11,842 17,267 2,778 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loans 529,19 594, , , ,36 Cash on hand 2,75 25,19 28,875 33,27 38,188 Fixed assets 15,487 17,47 46,24 52,927 6,866 Other assets 289, , ,4 252,39 26,89 Total assets 855,4 91,63 98,586 1,67,177 1,178,224 Customer deposits 636, , ,587 83, ,89 Deposits from other banks 17,772 12,952 14,894 17,129 19,698 Borrowing and sub-debts 51,136 58,188 59,472 64,974 64,367 Other liabilities 44,95 43,45 2,245 14,698 22,25 Total liabilities 75,195 79, ,198 9, ,899 Minorities 2,187 2,422 2,998 3,675 4,471 Equity 12, ,7 148, ,19 18,854 Total liabilities and equity 855,4 91,63 98,586 1,67,177 1,178,224 Breakdown Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F % to earnings assets Gross loans Government bonds Other earnings assets % to loan portfolio Corporate Commercial Micro and small Consumer % to total deposits Core funding Time deposits Key ratios Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAA ROAE NIM Loan/deposit ratio Loan/funding ratio Cost efficiency ratio CIR Gross NPL NPL coverage LLR CAR-total CAR-tier I

176 217 Compendium BANK NEGARA INDONESIA BUY PX: IDR5,125 - TP: IDR7, BBNI, the smallest of the four big banks by market cap, should see two key initiatives from its new management to continue driving outperformance against the industry to end-217: (1) Refocusing on SOE commercial banking, and (2) Remodeling lending model for its SME business. In 3Q16, both divisions generated strong growth, with 32% y-y for corporate and 3% y-y for SME loans. The initiatives have also grown BBNI s funding franchise. Despite tilting to deposits as we expect the CASA ratio to drift from 61% in 215 to 62-63% in , CoF should remain flat at 3.1% in 215 vs % in In 217, active loan restructuring should see high provisioning. At a 1.x 217F PBV, we think BBNI offers one of the most attractive risk/reward profiles in the sector, and we have an IDR7, TP on a 1.4x 217F PBV. Risk: momentum loss as strategies run their course and BBNI s outperformance realigns towards the industry average. Share price performance (IDR) 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 (2.1) Volume (RHS) BBNI IJ Px Last (%) (%) 5 (5) (1) (8.) (8.1) (1.8) (15) (15.2) (2) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BBNI IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bahana.co.id) ext (') 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 5 (5) (1) (15) (2) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net interest income (IDRbn) 22,376 25,56 3,151 33,25 35,379 Operating income (IDRbn) 35,246 35,298 4,847 45,9 48,66 Operating profit (IDRbn) 12,967 11,57 13,25 15,53 18,7 Pre-tax profit (IDRbn) 13,524 11,466 13,71 16,27 18,618 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,783 9,67 1,876 12,724 14,782 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 19.1 (15.9) P/E (x) Equity (IDRbn) 56,889 74,158 82,767 93,316 15,871 BVPS (IDR) 3,51 3,976 4,438 5,4 5,677 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loan growth Deposit growth Non interest inc./operating inc Corporate tax rate Payout ratio Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 5,975/4,27 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 7,2/4,469 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonhpesia (6.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 18,649/39.7 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 95,574/7,89 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 135.5/1. Bloomberg/Reuters code : BBNI IJ/BBNI.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 176

177 217 Compendium BANK NEGARA INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Interest income 33,365 36,895 43,778 47,12 49,421 Interest expense 1,989 11,335 13,627 14,94 14,43 Net interest income 22,376 25,56 3,151 33,25 35,379 Non-interest income 12,87 9,738 1,696 11,984 13,228 Total operating income 35,246 35,298 4,847 45,9 48,66 Operating expenses 18,578 16,84 2,246 22,667 23,857 Loan loss provisions 3,72 7,41 7,351 6,813 6,679 Operating profit 12,967 11,57 13,25 15,53 18,7 Non-operating inc./(exp.) Pre-tax profit 13,524 11,466 13,71 16,27 18,618 Corporate tax (2,695) (2,326) (2,74) (3,25) (3,724) Minorities (47) (74) (85) (98) (112) Net profit 1,783 9,67 1,876 12,724 14,782 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loans 277,36 325, , ,39 482,75 Cash on hand 11,436 12,89 13,535 14,212 14,922 Fixed assets 12,51 26,349 3,31 34,846 4,73 Other assets 115, ,69 165, ,15 176,511 Total assets 416,574 58, ,68 621, ,256 Customer deposits 313,893 37, , ,4 57,917 Deposits from other banks 4,15 5,163 5,35 5,975 6,73 Borrowing and sub-debts 26,154 39,938 37,824 38,957 4,15 Other liabilities 11,415 14,636 46,992 18,21 49,38 Total liabilities 355,478 43,157 55,2 523,957 64,15 Minorities 4,27 4,28 4,28 4,28 4,28 Equity 56,889 74,158 82,767 93,316 15,871 Total liabilities and equity 416,574 58, ,68 621, ,256 Breakdown Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F % to earnings assets Gross loans Government bonds Other earnings assets % to loan portfolio Corporate Commercial & SME Consumer Others % to total deposits Core funding Time deposits Key ratios Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAA ROAE NIM Loan/deposit ratio Loan/funding ratio Cost efficiency ratio CIR Gross NPL NPL coverage LLR CAR-total CAR-tier I

178 217 Compendium BANK PEMB. DAERAH JAWA BARAT DAN BANTEN REDUCE PX: IDR1,495 - TP: IDR1,2 BJBR, as the biggest regional bank, continues to experience difficulties with its loan portfolio outside the civil servant payroll segment. First, micro NPLs reached 25% of the portfolio. Then the mortgage segment saw 6% NPLs. Currently, BJBR is allocating loans toward the commercial side. Going into 217, we are cautiously optimistic as the West Java economic activities are doing well, helped by the construction sector which is driven by government infrastructure projects. We forecast higher provisioning with gross NPLs maintained at 3% of total loans, but could revisit our forecasts if BJBR s corporate loan segment does not generate NPLs by 1H17. BJBR is a REDUCE as the recent rally seems to have priced in recent improvements in micro NPLs and the corporate loan focus. Our IDR1,2 TP values BJBR at a 1.2x 217F PBV. Risk: Improvement in West Java economy and NPLs. Share price performance (IDR) 1,7 1,5 1,3 1, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Volume (RHS) BJBR IJ Px Last (%) (%) (2) (6.9) (3.8) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BJBR IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bahana.co.id) ext (') 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (2) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net interest income (IDRbn) 4,462 4,976 6,385 7,68 7,847 Operating income (IDRbn) 6,21 6,987 9,147 9,811 1,634 Operating profit (IDRbn) 1,327 1,736 2,45 2,255 2,529 Pre-tax profit (IDRbn) 1,423 1,766 2,77 2,289 2,565 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,18 1,381 1,69 1,773 1,987 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (19.8) P/E (x) Equity (IDRbn) 7,41 7,713 8,5 9,387 1,399 BVPS (IDR) ,72 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loan growth Deposit growth Non interest inc./operating inc Corporate tax rate Payout ratio Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,76/75 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,5/1,2 Majority shareholder (%) : West Java Provincial Govt. (38.3) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 9,696/25. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 14,496/1,75 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 21.6/1.6 Bloomberg/Reuters code : BJBR IJ/BJBR.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 178

179 217 Compendium BANK PEMB. DAERAH JAWA BARAT DAN BANTEN Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Interest income 8,792 1,84 11,81 12,12 13,168 Interest expense 4,33 5,18 4,696 5,52 5,321 Net interest income 4,462 4,976 6,385 7,68 7,847 Non-interest income 1,559 2,11 2,762 2,744 2,786 Total operating income 6,21 6,987 9,147 9,811 1,634 Operating expenses 3,146 3,848 4,569 5,97 5,692 Loan loss provisions 1,547 1,44 2,533 2,46 2,412 Operating profit 1,327 1,736 2,45 2,255 2,529 Non-operating inc./(exp.) Pre-tax profit 1,423 1,766 2,77 2,289 2,565 Corporate tax (315) (385) (468) (516) (579) Minorities (4) (4) Net profit 1,14 1,377 1,69 1,773 1,987 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loans 53,969 6,488 68,451 78,91 89,342 Cash on hand 2,768 2,43 2,763 3,177 3,654 Fixed assets 1,799 1,865 2,144 2,466 2,836 Other assets 17,326 23,943 27,812 32,869 39,796 Total assets 75,861 88,697 11, ,64 135,628 Customer deposits 57,741 67,66 76,299 85,982 97,313 Deposits from other banks 3,924 4,88 3,76 4,15 4,648 Borrowing and sub-debts 4,26 5,835 5,87 6,464 7,217 Other liabilities 2,855 3,412 6,815 1,576 16,6 Total liabilities 68,78 8,94 92,627 17, ,184 Minorities Equity 7,41 7,713 8,5 9,387 1,399 Total liabilities and equity 75,861 88,697 11, ,64 135,628 Breakdown Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F % to earnings assets Gross loans Government bonds..... Other earnings assets % to loan portfolio Consumer Commercial Micro Others (incl. mortgage) % to total deposits Core funding Time deposits Key ratios Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAA ROAE NIM Loan/deposit ratio Loan/funding ratio Cost efficiency ratio CIR Gross NPL NPL coverage LLR CAR-total CAR-tier I

180 217 Compendium BANK PEMBANGUNAN DAERAH JAWA TIMUR HOLD PX: IDR488 - TP: IDR475 BJTM, the second-biggest regional bank by market cap, has so far failed to retain NPLs whenever it tries to grow outside its civil servant payroll loan segment, in particular micro. Thus, we expect higher provisions, holding net profit growth to low-single-digit levels. In 216, we forecast BJTM to deliver 16% y- y net profit growth, before normalizing at 6% y-y in 217 as its strategy to dispose of excess savings through lower deposit rates and micro expansion continues to cause balance sheet inefficiencies. The LDR has risen from 7% in 29 at its IPO to 85% currently. BJTM remains a HOLD on falling net profit growth momentum, as low hanging fruit from a higher LDR base effect runs out. We set our TP at IDR475, reflecting a 1.x 217F PBV. Tactically, we think BJTM is worth a trade during the Mar-Apr dividend period due to the IDR5/share dividend or 217F yield of 1.2%. Downside risk to our call: Lower-than-expected provisions. Share price performance (IDR) (') 7 6, 65 5, 6 4, 55 3, 5 2, 45 1, 4 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) BJTM IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) (1.8) (.3) (5) (1) (1) (8.2) (15) (15) (2) (16.9) (2) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BJTM IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net interest income (IDRbn) 2,881 3,113 3,394 3,576 3,753 Operating income (IDRbn) 3,254 3,558 3,89 4,134 4,383 Operating profit (IDRbn) 1,351 1,28 1,347 1,43 1,533 Pre-tax profit (IDRbn) 1,376 1,261 1,363 1,447 1,55 Net profit (IDRbn) ,22 1,85 1,162 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 13.9 (5.8) P/E (x) Equity (IDRbn) 6,44 6,295 6,676 7,88 7,59 BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loan growth Deposit growth (.4) Non interest inc./operating inc Corporate tax rate Payout ratio Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 72/44 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 55/47 Majority shareholder (%) : East Java Provincial Govt. (51.4) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 14,945/2.1 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 7,293/541 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 18.2/1.4 Bloomberg/Reuters code : BJTM IJ/BJTM.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 18

181 217 Compendium BANK PEMBANGUNAN DAERAH JAWA TIMUR Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Interest income 4,84 4,611 4,721 4,877 5,41 Interest expense 1,23 1,498 1,326 1,31 1,288 Net interest income 2,881 3,113 3,394 3,576 3,753 Non-interest income Total operating income 3,254 3,558 3,89 4,134 4,383 Operating expenses 1,395 1,75 1,859 2, 2,154 Loan loss provisions Operating profit 1,351 1,28 1,347 1,43 1,533 Non-operating inc./(exp.) Pre-tax profit 1,376 1,261 1,363 1,447 1,55 Corporate tax (437) (377) (341) (362) (387) Minorities Net profit ,22 1,85 1,162 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loans 26,195 28,412 29,8 29,885 3,869 Cash on hand 1,889 2,112 2,429 2,793 3,212 Fixed assets Other assets 9,293 11,598 12,735 13,212 14,38 Total assets 37,998 42,84 45,129 46,775 49,5 Customer deposits 3,27 34,264 34,141 35,19 36,126 Deposits from other banks Borrowing and sub-debts Other liabilities ,25 1,295 1,384 Total liabilities 31,954 36,58 36,694 37,679 38,893 Minorities Equity 6,44 6,295 6,676 7,88 7,59 Total liabilities and equity 37,998 42,84 43,37 44,767 46,42 Breakdown Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F % to earnings assets Gross loans Government bonds Other earnings assets % to loan portfolio Consumer SME Commercial Others..... % to total deposits Core funding Time deposits Key ratios Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAA ROAE NIM Loan/deposit ratio Loan/funding ratio Cost efficiency ratio CIR Gross NPL NPL coverage LLR CAR-total CAR-tier I

182 217 Compendium BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA BUY PX: IDR11,5 - TP: IDR14,9 In 217, we estimate that BBRI will be the biggest bank by assets, and we believe this would be attributable to its unique micro banking franchise to allow for superior profit sustainability. On our calculation, the stock is already factoring in a 17% yield for KUR in 217 and a 1% decline in micro-loan yields per annum from 22% in 216, to 21% in 217 and 2% in 218. Even with sustained provisioning at about IDR13tn (almost double the past-3-year average), BBRI should continue to generate a >7.5% NIM and >2% ROE into 218. This shows the profit capacity of BBRI, in our view. The tactical risk of long BBRI is its management change due 1Q17. However, we already build in IDR13tn of flat provisioning in , when other banks would be seeing lower provisions on higher economic growth. We have a IDR14,9 TP and would accumulate up to a 2.4x 217F PBV. Risk: Falling profitability due to KUR. Share price performance (IDR) 13, 12, 11, 1, 9, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 (1.9) Volume (RHS) BBRI IJ Px Last (%) (%) 5 (5) (1) (4.1) (1.6) (15) (12.8) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BBRI IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 (') 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 5 (5) (1) (15) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net interest income (IDRbn) 51,49 58,279 66,212 72,424 79,75 Operating income (IDRbn) 6,789 7,688 8,91 88,55 97,49 Operating profit (IDRbn) 28,39 3,511 3,579 33,648 37,363 Pre-tax profit (IDRbn) 3,84 32,494 32,585 35,678 39,418 Net profit (IDRbn) 24,215 25,398 25,44 27,816 3,733 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) 982 1,3 1,3 1,128 1,246 EPS growth (%) P/E (x) Equity (IDRbn) 97, ,833 13,549 15, ,132 BVPS (IDR) 3,954 4,574 5,292 6,111 7,18 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loan growth Deposit growth Non interest inc./operating inc Corporate tax rate Payout ratio Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 12,975/9,525 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 15,/8,221 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (56.8) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 24,669/43.2 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 283,695/21,41 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 265.5/19.7 Bloomberg/Reuters code : BBRI IJ/BBRI.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 182

183 217 Compendium BANK RAKYAT INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Interest income 75,17 85,435 93,298 11,37 111,61 Interest expense 23,681 27,156 27,85 28,613 31,311 Net interest income 51,49 58,279 66,212 72,424 79,75 Non-interest income 9,299 12,49 13,879 15,631 17,299 Total operating income 6,789 7,688 8,91 88,55 97,49 Operating expenses 26,76 31,285 35,91 4,893 46,392 Loan loss provisions 5,719 8,891 13,611 13,514 13,294 Operating profit 28,39 3,511 3,579 33,648 37,363 Non-operating inc./(exp.) 2,495 1,983 2,6 2,3 2,55 Pre-tax profit 3,84 32,494 32,585 35,678 39,418 Corporate tax (6,578) (7,83) (7,169) (7,849) (8,672) Minorities (12) (13) (13) (13) (13) Net profit 24,215 25,398 25,44 27,816 3,733 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loans 51,428 58, ,93 757, ,947 Cash on hand 22,469 28,772 3,21 31,721 33,37 Fixed assets 11,583 14,687 19,828 26,768 36,137 Other assets 257,54 254, , , ,847 Total assets 81, , ,78 1,85,875 1,224,237 Customer deposits 622, , , , ,922 Deposits from other banks 8,655 11,165 12,92 14,915 17,248 Borrowing and sub-debts 25,64 35,537 37,324 39,22 41,176 Other liabilities 48,237 49,62 22,921 32,545 33,437 Total liabilities 74, , , ,818 1,5,783 Minorities Equity 97, ,833 13,549 15, ,132 Total liabilities and equity 81, , ,78 1,85,875 1,224,237 Breakdown Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F % to earnings assets Gross loans Government bonds Other earnings assets % to loan portfolio Corporate SME Consumer Micro % to total deposits Core funding Time deposits Key ratios Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAA ROAE NIM Loan/deposit ratio Loan/funding ratio Cost efficiency ratio CIR Gross NPL NPL coverage LLR CAR-total CAR-tier I

184 217 Compendium BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA BUY PX: IDR1,72 - TP: IDR2,1 In 217, we expect policy-driven subsidized mortgage demand to continue supporting CASA and loan growth for BBTN, one of the largest low-end mortgage providers. We expect subsidized mortgages to grow 2% y-y, supporting loan growth of 17-18%. Strong subsidized mortgage loans should squeeze out non-mortgage lending and we expect this segment s contribution to total loans to continue to fall from 1% in 216 to 9% in 217 and 8% in 218. This also should have a positive impact on NPLs, which BBTN aims to lower to <3% by end-216. We expect this to be realized only in 218. BBTN remains our small-bank top pick, as its franchise growth and improving operational matrices are a natural consequence of policies focused on solving Indonesia s huge low-cost housing deficit. Our TP for BBTN is IDR2,1, or a 1.2x 217F PBV on an industry ROE-adjusted average. Risk: Delays in government funding disbursements. Share price performance (IDR) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) BBTN IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (7.5) (1.4) (7.1) (7.1) (2) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BBTN IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bahana.co.id) ext (') 12, 9, 6, 3, (1) (2) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net interest income (IDRbn) 5,482 6,867 7,556 8,529 9,633 Operating income (IDRbn) 6,45 7,998 8,898 1,18 11,327 Operating profit (IDRbn) 1,576 2,534 2,92 3,35 3,71 Pre-tax profit (IDRbn) 1,578 2,542 2,928 3,357 3,78 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,145 1,851 2,196 2,518 2,781 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (26.7) P/E (x) Equity (IDRbn) 12,253 13,86 15,686 17,82 2,223 BVPS (IDR) 1,158 1,31 1,482 1,684 1,911 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loan growth Deposit growth Non interest inc./operating inc Corporate tax rate Payout ratio Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,1/1,215 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,42 /1,7 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (6.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,582/39.9 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 18,215/1,351 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 29.9/2.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : BBTN IJ/BBTN.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 184

185 217 Compendium BANK TABUNGAN NEGARA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Interest income 13,374 15,567 16,594 17,735 19,189 Interest expense 7,893 8,7 9,39 9,26 9,556 Net interest income 5,482 6,867 7,556 8,529 9,633 Non-interest income 923 1,132 1,342 1,489 1,694 Total operating income 6,45 7,998 8,898 1,18 11,327 Operating expenses 4,52 4,563 5,275 5,947 6,92 Loan loss provisions Operating profit 1,576 2,534 2,92 3,35 3,71 Non-operating inc./(exp.) Pre-tax profit 1,578 2,542 2,928 3,357 3,78 Corporate tax (433) (691) (732) (839) (927) Minorities Net profit 1,145 1,851 2,196 2,518 2,781 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loans 115, , , , ,364 Cash on hand 92 1,181 1,477 1,846 2,37 Fixed assets 3,1 3,237 3,885 4,662 5,128 Other assets 24,745 28,433 3,126 3,725 31,285 Total assets 144, ,88 199,82 229, ,84 Customer deposits 16, , , , ,888 Deposits from other banks 1,77 3,255 1,979 2,276 2,618 Borrowing and sub-debts 18,752 2,796 26,621 31,21 36,194 Other liabilities 5,329 6,151 6,73 6,539 7,161 Total liabilities 132, , , , ,861 Minorities Equity 12,253 13,86 15,686 17,82 2,223 Total liabilities and equity 144, ,88 199,82 229, ,84 Breakdown Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F % to earnings assets Gross loans Government bonds Other earnings assets % to loan portfolio Subsidized mortgage Non-subsidized mortgage Housing related loans Non-housing related loans % to total deposits Core funding Time deposits Key ratios Year to 31 Dec (%) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAA ROAE NIM Loan/deposit ratio Loan/funding ratio Cost efficiency ratio CIR Gross NPL NPL coverage LLR CAR-total CAR-tier I

186 217 Compendium BANK TABUNGAN PENSIUNAN NASIONAL BUY PX: IDR2,79 - TP: IDR3,3 In 217, we expect BTPN to continue its foray into the SME segment, as it has been squeezed out by the government s KUR program in the lowincome target market. As such, we expect the SME weight as a percentage of total loans to growth to fall from 14% in 216 to 15% in 217. We expect BTPN s lending franchise to perform above the industry growth rate of 15% y-y in 217 on its superior track record. BTPN is also most leveraged to falling industry deposit rates, as CASA only forms less than 13% of its total funding mix. It is also the most dependent on wholesale funding, with 5% derived from stand-by facility loans from IFC and SMBC. Our TP is set at a 1.1x 217F PBV, translating into IDR3,3 for 18.3% upside potential. BUY. We believe BTPN s foray into digital banking and new loan segments targets reflects creativity and flexibility, essential in today s competitive environment. Risk: Founder s further divestment plan. Share price performance (IDR) 3, 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) BTPN IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) (1) (9.4) (1.2) (15) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BTPN IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 (.5) (') 18, 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, (5) (1) (15) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net interest income (IDRbn) 7,41 7,696 8,96 8,413 8,973 Operating income (IDRbn) 7,84 8,46 8,847 9,193 9,784 Operating profit (IDRbn) 2,557 2,46 2,576 2,82 3,11 Pre-tax profit (IDRbn) 2,544 2,433 2,546 2,787 3,73 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,869 1,72 1,851 2,23 2,228 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (12.3) (8.9) P/E (x) Equity (IDRbn) 11,68 13,576 15,427 17,45 19,678 BVPS (IDR) 2, 2,325 2,641 2,988 3,369 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loan growth Deposit growth Non interest inc./operating inc Corporate tax rate Payout ratio..... Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 3,1/2, 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 3,9/2,1 Majority shareholder (%) : GSI Sumitomo (4.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 5,84/5.8 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 16,294/1,29 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) :.4/. Bloomberg/Reuters code : BTPN IJ/BTPN.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 186

187 217 Compendium BANK TABUNGAN PENSIUNAN NASIONAL Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Interest income 12,293 13,4 13,196 14,7 14,936 Interest expense 5,252 5,38 5,11 5,595 5,963 Net interest income 7,41 7,696 8,96 8,413 8,973 Non-interest income Total operating income 7,84 8,46 8,847 9,193 9,784 Operating expenses 4,48 5,156 5,339 5,568 5,759 Loan loss provisions Operating profit 2,557 2,46 2,576 2,82 3,11 Non-operating inc./(exp.) (13) (27) (3) (33) (36) Pre-tax profit 2,544 2,433 2,546 2,787 3,73 Corporate tax (659) (68) (636) (697) (768) Minorities (16) (51) (58) (67) (77) Net profit 1,869 1,72 1,851 2,23 2,228 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Loans 51,994 58,587 63,813 69,822 76,657 Cash on hand 1,13 1,352 1,623 1,947 2,337 Fixed assets 1,57 1,888 2,359 2,949 3,687 Other assets 2,429 19,213 21,26 24,585 28,335 Total assets 75,59 81,41 89,56 99,34 111,16 Customer deposits 53,335 6,273 65,689 72,39 79,634 Deposits from other banks Borrowing and sub-debts 8,214 5,342 6,446 7,735 9,282 Other liabilities 1,583 1,5 1,8 1,61 1,858 Total liabilities 63,132 67,116 73,24 81,418 9,848 Minorities Equity 11,68 13,576 15,427 17,45 19,678 Total liabilities and equity 75,59 81,41 89,56 99,34 111,16 Breakdown Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F % to earnings assets Gross loans Government bonds Other earnings assets % to loan portfolio Loans to pensioners Micro & SME loans Others Syariah % to total deposits Core funding Time deposits Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAA ROAE NIM Loan/deposit ratio Loan/funding ratio Cost efficiency ratio CIR Gross NPL NPL coverage LLR CAR-total CAR-tier I

188 217 Compendium BEKASI FAJAR INDUSTRIAL ESTATE REDUCE PX: IDR26 - TP: IDR22* Despite having the most strategic landbank (closest to Jakarta), BEST is struggling to capitalize on its 954ha in assets given current macro headwinds. In 9M16, the company booked 7ha in land sales, only 23% of its 3ha full-year target (Bahana: 18ha). We believe investors will lose their appetite for BEST due to its high land price (3% premium). Thus, we expect flat pre-sales growth in 217. On the bottom line, we expect 217 net earnings to be hampered by weak 216 marketing sales achievement and interest charges stemming from its huge debt level (3Q16 debt: IDR1.7tn). A low portion of recurring income and an undiversified business have us lowering our 12M TP from IDR3 to IDR22, based on a 75% discount to 217F NAV (sector average discount to NAV: 68%). The new NAV is calculated using different discounts for each landbank. REDUCE. Risks: Higher-than-expected marketing sales and FDI. Share price performance (IDR) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 (25.) Volume (RHS) (19.9) (22.3) (5.9) BEST IJ Px Last (16.3) (') 6, (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, (5) (43.5) (5) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BEST IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II (1) (2) (3) (4) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (47.4) (46.) 12.6 (8.5) 7.8 EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (14) (91) (3) (33) (44) FCF yield (%) (5.4) (35.) (11.7) (12.9) (16.8) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price NAV calculation 217F Land bank (Ha) 954 Total value (IDRbn) 15,588 NAV/share (IDR) 889 Discount (%) 75 Adjusted NAV/share (IDR) 22 Company information 12M High/low (IDR) : 39/194 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 5/238 Majority shareholder (%) : Argo Manunggal Land Dev (48.1) Share outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 9,647/41.8 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 2,58/186 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 19.3/1.4 Bloomberg/Reuters code : BEST IJ/BEST.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 188

189 217 Compendium BEKASI FAJAR INDUSTRIAL ESTATE Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (33) (86) (97) (121) (146) Forex gain/(losses) (6) (7) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (42) (33) (31) (32) (36) Minority interest () () () () () Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories 2,493 3,13 3,623 3,979 4,466 Fixed assets Other assets ,43 1,159 1,287 Total assets 3,653 4,631 5,26 5,675 6,313 Interest bearing liabilities 466 1,423 1,723 2,23 2,424 Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 83 1,589 1,947 2,219 2,642 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,848 3,4 3,257 3,454 3,669 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (2) (119) 9 (6) (9) Other operating items (31) (442) (83) (274) (266) Operating cash flow 166 (159) Net capital expenditure (32) (719) (567) (422) (575) Free cash flow (136) (878) (292) (323) (42) Equity raised/(bought) 3 () - - Net borrowings (75) Other financing (22) (19) (2) (21) (2) Net cash flow (23) 6 (13) (44) (39) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

190 217 Compendium BLUE BIRD HOLD PX: IDR2,93 - TP: IDR2,9* BIRD, Indonesia s largest conventional taxi operator, is undergoing a major restructuring at the management and operational levels. We believe revamping its mobile app should improve order flow and ease non-cash payments and result in higher utilization rates. Additionally, BIRD should benefit from reduced competition as LCGC utilization for online taxis is unlikely to be approved. Nevertheless, rivalry with online taxis and driver shortages should remain. We expect the limitation on driver-hiring to result in just 1.8% y-y fleet growth in 217 to 27,219 units, and result in revenue growth of 11.7% in 217. Given some 72% 12M share price correction from its peak, we think BIRD s current share price has factored in most of the bad news. HOLD. On valuation, our new 12M TP of IDR2,9 reflects a 217F PE of 1.3x, at par with the regional peer valuation of 1.7x. Risk: Government policies. Share price performance (IDR) 8, 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) BIRD IJ Px Last (%) (%) (2) (4) (6) (8) (4.2) (19.1) (36.1) (6) (61.5) (72.2) (72.8) (8) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BIRD IJ relative to JCI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, (2) (4) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 4,759 5,472 4,925 5,52 5,721 EBIT (IDRbn) 1,52 1, ,77 Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (44.) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (125) (197) FCF yield (%) (43) (67) BVPS (IDR) 1,416 1,71 1,83 2,27 2,256 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Total regular taxi fleet (units) 25,545 26,719 26,719 27,219 27,719 Utilization rate (%) Avg. daily income/unit (IDRmn) Number of disposed fleet (units) 4,25 4,149 4,34 4,353 4,458 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 8,15/2,6 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 9,24/3,124 Majority shareholder (%) : Pusaka Citra Djokosoetono (37.2) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 2,52/15.8 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 7,268/539 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 3./.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : BIRD IJ/BIRD.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 19

191 217 Compendium BLUE BIRD Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 4,759 5,472 4,925 5,52 5,721 Gross profit 1,453 1,672 1,12 1,457 1,64 EBITDA 1,698 1,868 1,4 1,747 1,77 Depreciation EBIT 1,52 1, ,77 Net interest inc./(expense) (263) (193) (21) (172) (133) Forex gain/(losses) (5) (25) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit 986 1, ,98 Taxes (247) (276) (154) (235) (274) Minority interest (5) (5) (3) (4) (5) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents ,47 S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 5,563 6,196 5,99 5,949 6,26 Other assets Total assets 7,172 7,153 7,91 7,433 7,772 Interest bearing liabilities 2,5 1,969 1,824 1,499 1,175 Trade payables Other liabilities 1, Total liabilities 3,562 2,825 2,437 2,283 2,44 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 3,542 4,256 4,579 5,71 5,644 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1,52 1, ,77 Depreciation Working capital 92 (181) 2 (17) (8) Other operating items (236) (852) (449) (84) (175) Operating cash flow 1, ,646 1,588 Net capital expenditure (1,867) (1,327) (527) (754) (771) Free cash flow (313) (493) Equity raised/(bought) 2, Net borrowings (66) (81) (145) (325) (325) Other financing (651) (16) (136) (27) (241) Net cash flow 684 (68) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow ,47 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

192 217 Compendium BUMI SERPONG DAMAI BUY PX: IDR1,815 - TP: IDR2,35 With the largest landbank and market cap under our coverage, BSDE is developing its BSD City mega project development given its 1,5ha ready-to-develop land. As most of its products are landed, BSDE has the highest gross margin in the sector (9M16: 74%). Going into 217, we expect BI s LTV relaxation implementation in 3Q16 would boost sales as more than 6% of BSDE s payment methods are using mortgage. Thus, we forecast 217 marketing sales growth of 9% y-y, of which 72% of the total sales would be derived from the BSD City project. Due to its healthy balance sheet, diversified products and secured landbank, we apply a 55% discount to our 217F NAV to determine our IDR2,35 12M target price. BUY. Risks to our call are BSD City s infrastructure development delays as well as increases in high-rise property demand in the future. Share price performance (IDR) 2,4 2,2 2, 1,8 (') 12, 1,6 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) BSDE IJ Px Last (%) (%) (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) (12) (14) (9.3) (3.8) (6.1) (12.6) (13.5) (13.3) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BSDE IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) (12) (14) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 5,614 6,21 6,33 6,534 7,155 EBIT (IDRbn) 2,664 2,91 2,616 2,89 3,174 Net profit (IDRbn) 3,818 2,139 1,656 1,841 2,65 Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 35.1 (46.5) (22.6) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (158) (91) (146) (6) 8 FCF yield (%) (8.7) (5.) (8.1) (3.3).5 BVPS (IDR) ,56 1,143 1,241 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price NAV Calculation 217F Land bank (Ha) 4,72 Total value (IDRbn) 11,22 NAV/share (IDR) 5,22 Discount (%) 55 Adjusted NAV/share (IDR) 2,35 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,38/1,58 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,79/1,26 Majority shareholder (%) : Paraga Artamida (26.6) Share outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 19,247/38.9 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 34,933/2,582 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 6.3/4.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : BSDE IJ/BSDE.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 192

193 217 Compendium BUMI SERPONG DAMAI Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 5,614 6,21 6,33 6,534 7,155 Gross profit 4,167 4,638 4,372 4,792 5,257 EBITDA 2,796 3,97 2,87 3,128 3,459 Depreciation EBIT 2,664 2,91 2,616 2,89 3,174 Net interest inc./(expense) (17) (324) (49) (453) (453) Forex gain/(losses) (5) - - Other income/(expense) 1,717 () Pre-tax profit 4,34 2,715 2,251 2,49 2,776 Taxes (31) (364) (362) (392) (429) Minority interest (176) (212) (233) (256) (282) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 3,818 2,139 1,656 1,841 2,65 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 2,82 6,19 4,9 4,342 4,695 S-T investments 6,32 6,97 6,97 6,97 6,97 Trade receivables Inventories 5,16 6,548 6,642 6,968 7,592 Fixed assets 4,46 5,414 5,764 7,164 8,564 Other assets 9,746 11,685 14,55 16,872 17,242 Total assets 28,28 36,22 37,238 41,634 44,399 Interest bearing liabilities 4,172 7,659 7,975 9,175 9,175 Trade payables Other liabilities 5,439 5,95 5,58 6,195 6,655 Total liabilities 9,767 13,925 13,34 15,73 16,195 Minority interest 3,92 3,247 3,572 3,929 4,322 Shareholders' equity 15,349 18,85 2,326 22,2 23,882 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 2,664 2,91 2,616 2,89 3,174 Depreciation Working capital (1,469) (2,618) (2,861) (543) 276 Other operating items 1,374 (489) (1,126) (1,88) (1,113) Operating cash flow 2,71 (1) (1,18) 1,497 2,622 Net capital expenditure (5,466) (1,576) (1,381) (2,555) (2,478) Free cash flow (2,765) (1,586) (2,562) (1,58) 144 Equity raised/(bought) 1,613 1, Net borrowings 79 3, ,2 Other financing (44) (266) Net cash flow (1,477) 3,288 (2,1) Cash flow at beginning 4,297 2,82 6,19 4,9 4,342 Ending cash flow 2,82 6,19 4,9 4,342 4,695 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

194 217 Compendium CATUR SENTOSA ADIPRANA BUY* PX: IDR484 - TP: IDR64* CSAP, the country s largest modern distributor of building materials, is experiencing strong growth in its FMCG segment, handling over 25, products with 24 major principals, including P&G and Frisian Flag. CSAP is set to improve its 216 performance with growth propelled by sales of ceramics (9M % y-y) and FMCG (9M % y-y). On the cost front, we expect margins to continue improving, following higher contributions from direct purchases and private labels (e.g., paint and ceramics). In addition, CSAP plans to start expanding aggressively its home improvement retail segment brand, Mitra 1, pledging to double the number of its stores to 5 by 22. On valuation, we initiate coverage with a BUY and 12M TP of IDR64, using the simple average of DCF and a 217F 15x PER. Risks: Acquisition difficulties of construction licenses and a slower economy. Share price performance Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 7,144 7,285 8,146 9,272 1,685 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 56.8 (63.6) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) 24 (43) (3) (24) (29) FCF yield (%) 4.9 (8.8) (6.3) (5.) (6.) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Total store space (k sqm) Total number of stores (units) SSSG (%) (7.6) Richard Danusaputra (richard@bahana.co.id) ext. 365 *New, please refer to appendix II Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 51/352 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 64/447 Majority shareholder (%) : Buanatata Adisentosa (35.2) Share outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 4,53/39.8 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 1,962/145 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 2.9/.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : CSAP IJ/CSAP.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 194

195 217 Compendium CATUR SENTOSA ADIPRANA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 7,144 7,285 8,146 9,272 1,685 Gross profit ,149 1,354 1,613 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (1) (13) (115) (127) (139) Forex gain/(losses) 4 6 (7) - - Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables 1,139 1,42 1,161 1,296 1,464 Inventories 1,243 1,352 1,495 1,627 1,814 Fixed assets ,3 1,187 Other assets Total assets 3,39 3,523 3,855 4,325 4,889 Interest bearing liabilities 85 1, 1,9 1,191 1,31 Trade payables 1,511 1,488 1,649 1,887 2,162 Other liabilities Total liabilities 2,488 2,669 2,938 3,35 3,725 Minority interest Shareholders' equity ,49 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net income Depreciation Working capital (74) (34) (12) (28) (81) Other operating items (34) (42) 9 (38) (43) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure 51 (185) (185) (31) (38) Free cash flow 96 (172) (123) (99) (118) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (114) Other financing Net cash flow (6) 12 (35) 11 (1) Cash flow at beginning Cash flow at end Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

196 217 Compendium CHAROEN POKPHAND INDONESIA HOLD PX: IDR3,37- TP: IDR3,3 CPIN, Indonesia s largest poultry company with a 36% market share in poultry feed (59% of sales), has started to consolidate the broiler division into the listed company, which should lead to higher earnings volatility. This should cause CPIN s premium valuation to de-rate. CPIN s recent move to the low-mid market ready-to-drink tea and mineral water segment that has a long breakeven period is a negative development, in our view. However, increasing purchasing power and the short-term DOC price hike should support operating performance. Our unchanged TP of IDR3,4 is based on a 17x 217F PE, a 15% premium to peers. Given the limited upside potential to our TP and expected earnings volatility, we maintain a HOLD rating on CPIN. Downside risks include local corn supply shortage and weaker IDR, while upside risks include higher-than-expected poultry prices. Share price performance (IDR) (') 4, 3, 25, 3,5 2, 15, 3, 1, 5, 2,5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) CPIN IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) (2.2) (4.3) (5) (1) (6.8) (5.7) (1) (8.9) (15) (15) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M CPIN IJ relative to JCI Michael W. Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) ext. 362 Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 29,15 3,18 37,842 41,451 43,932 EBIT (IDRbn) 2,627 3,443 4,334 4,449 3,826 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,746 1,837 3,13 3,176 2,78 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (31.) (14.7) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (138.1) (46.1) FCF yield (%) (4.1) (1.4) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Feed ASP (IDR/kg) 6,174 6,56 6,259 6,564 6,725 Feed volume (k ton) 3,65 3,629 3,557 3,628 3,7 DOC ASP 4,557 5,57 6,37 6,531 6,313 DOC volume (mn birds) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 4,195/1,4 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 4,8/3,1 Majority shareholder (%) : Central Agromina (55.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 16,398/44.2 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 55,917/4,99 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 2.3/1.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : CPIN IJ/CPIN.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 196

197 217 Compendium CHAROEN POKPHAND INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 29,15 3,18 37,842 41,451 43,932 Gross profit 4,134 5,14 6,425 6,785 6,333 EBITDA 3,63 4,15 5,148 5,334 4,793 Depreciation EBIT 2,627 3,443 4,334 4,449 3,826 Net interest inc./(expense) (261) (62) (597) (55) (515) Forex gain/(losses) (271) (587) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit 2,16 2,282 3,93 3,961 3,377 Taxes Minority interest () (4) (7) (8) (6) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 1,746 1,837 3,13 3,176 2,78 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 885 1,679 1, S-T investments Trade receivables 3,159 2,998 2,93 3,47 3,611 Inventories 4,321 5,454 7,316 8,73 8,756 Fixed assets 9,58 11,123 12,11 13,225 14,258 Other assets 3,418 3,43 4,183 4,446 4,267 Total assets 2,842 24,685 27,799 29,84 31,533 Interest bearing liabilities 6,597 8,264 7,5 6,9 6,3 Trade payables 1,591 2,464 3,1 3,421 3,71 Other liabilities 1,649 1,396 2,47 2,1 2,396 Total liabilities 9,837 12,123 12,648 12,421 12,46 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 1,987 12,547 15,137 17,368 19,112 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 2,627 3,443 4,334 4,449 3,826 Depreciation Working capital (1,59) (482) (1,384) (1,19) (594) Other operating items (1,164) (1,651) (1,42) (1,234) (971) Operating cash flow 841 1,972 2,343 3,8 3,228 Net capital expenditure (3,15) (2,728) (1,8) (2,) (2,) Free cash flow (2,264) (755) 543 1,8 1,228 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 3,77 1,667 (764) (6) (6) Other financing (728) (449) (237) (1,45) (764) Net cash flow (262) 794 (393) (634) (11) Cash flow at beginning 1, ,679 1, Ending cash flow 885 1,679 1, Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

198 217 Compendium CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT BUY PX: IDR1,435 - TP: IDR1,8* Having the most geographically varied landbank with different target markets, CTRA is benefiting from its diversified portfolio given continued soft high-end property demand. However, lower-margin midlow products are likely to be a drag on 217 gross margins, which we expect to reach 49%, relatively flat on a y-y basis. The rationale for the planned merger of CTRA s two subsidiaries (CTRP & CTRS) is (1) higher total market cap to c.usd2.1bn from USD1.8bn currently; (2) optimization of business structure; and (3) greater financial strength. The merger could also raise our 217 EPS forecast 6% to IDR16/sh and NAV/sh to IDR5,876 (+25% before discount). On valuation, our new IDR1,8 TP is based on a 55% discount to our 217F NAV. Our positive view is based on its diversified products, which could grow along with the government s infrastructure projects. BUY. Risks: Delays in project launches and infrastructure construction. Share price performance (IDR) 1,8 1,7 1,6 1,5 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 (4.4) Volume (RHS) (1.5) (1.7) CTRA IJ Px Last (5.4) (.6) (14.6) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M (') 12, (%) (%) (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) (12) (14) (16) CTRA IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (2) (4) (6) (8) (1) (12) (14) (16) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenue (IDRbn) 6,34 7,514 6,593 9,424 9,817 EBIT (IDRbn) 2,24 2,353 1,682 2,673 2,748 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,325 1, ,465 1,537 Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 34.2 (3.1) (36.9) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (152) (79) (71) (62) (7) FCF yield (%) (1.6) (5.5) (4.9) (4.3) (4.9) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price NAV Calculation 217F Land bank (Ha) 1,593 Total value (IDRbn) 82,12 NAV/share (IDR) 4,743 Discount (%) 55 Adjusted NAV/share (IDR) 1,8 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,745/1,138 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,15/1,4 Majority shareholder (%) : Sang Pelopor (3.6) Share outstanding (m)/free float (%) : 15,425/69.4 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 22,135/1,636 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 29.1/2.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : CTRA IJ/CTRA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 198

199 217 Compendium CIPUTRA DEVELOPMENT Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 6,34 7,514 6,593 9,424 9,817 Gross profit 3,33 3,729 3,21 4,63 4,84 EBITDA 2,43 2,577 1,88 2,859 2,942 Depreciation EBIT 2,24 2,353 1,682 2,673 2,748 Net interest inc./(expense) (46) (199) (38) (287) (283) Forex gain/(losses) - - (1) - - Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit 2,25 2,223 1,464 2,58 2,627 Taxes (411) (483) (369) (528) (55) Minority interest (47) (457) (285) (515) (54) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 1,325 1, ,465 1,537 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 2,889 3,34 2,168 2,145 2,118 S-T investments Trade receivables ,33 1,76 Inventories 6,429 7,531 9,38 11,297 14,121 Fixed assets 2,352 2,962 3,678 4,262 4,586 Other assets 11,14 11,856 12,797 13,873 15,16 Total assets 23,538 26,258 28,44 32,61 37,8 Interest bearing liabilities 4,21 5,277 4,696 4,639 4,586 Trade payables ,116 1,159 Other liabilities 7,92 7,18 8,263 9,747 11,514 Total liabilities 11,886 13,28 13,747 15,52 17,259 Minority interest 4,4 4,646 5,575 6,69 8,28 Shareholders' equity 7,648 8,44 9,82 1,418 11,721 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 2,24 2,353 1,682 2,673 2,748 Depreciation Working capital (1,695) (1,226) (478) (1,45) (1,396) Other operating items (1,269) (1,149) (1,15) (1,478) (1,522) Operating cash flow (561) Net capital expenditure (1,769) (1,48) (1,378) (1,289) (1,11) Free cash flow (2,33) (1,27) (1,81) (952) (1,77) Equity raised/(bought) 125 (211) Net borrowings 84 1,254 (581) (57) (53) Other financing ,14 Net cash flow (576) 146 (866) (23) (27) Cash flow at beginning 3,465 2,889 3,34 2,168 2,145 Ending cash flow 2,889 3,34 2,168 2,145 2,118 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

200 217 Compendium CIPUTRA PROPERTY BUY* PX: IDR71 - TP: IDR85* As we expect tax amnesty-related money to begin to find its way into the property market in 217, CTRP, known as a premium high-rise and mixed-use specialist, should benefit the most. Moreover, the government s foreign property ownership easing should bode well for CTRP s luxury apartments in Ciputra World Jakarta. As such, we forecast 217 pre-sales to grow 12% y-y. Other catalysts would stem from CTRA s plan to exchange CTRP s public shares with CTRA s using a.54x swap ratio. Using CTRA s 23 Nov closing price of IDR1,435, CTRP shares would be worth IDR775/share (1,435 x.54= IDR775), for 9% upside potential. Given CTRP s high-end concentration and strategically located landbank, we reduce our 217F NAV discount from 7% to 6%, resulting in a higher 12M TP of IDR85 (from IDR5). BUY (from REDUCE). Risk: Weak pre-sales, soft post tax-amnesty demand. Share price performance (IDR) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) CTRP IJ Px Last (') 18, (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M CTRP IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II , 12, 9, 6, 3, Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 1,662 2,46 1,629 1,897 2,11 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/cons.(%) - na na na na EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (6.5) (18.3) (59.4) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (142) (75) (286) (32) 5 FCF yield (%) (2.) (1.5) (4.2) (4.5).7 BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price NAV Calculation 217F Land bank (Ha) 65 Discount (%) 6 Total value (IDRbn) 1,296 Adjusted NAV (IDR) 5,316 Adjusted NAV/share (IDR) 85 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 815/333 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 5/5 Majority shareholder (%) : Ciputra Development (56.3) Share outstanding (m)/free float (%) : 6,316/43.7 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 4,484/331 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 12.7/.9 Bloomberg/Reuters code : CTRP IJ/CTRP.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 2

201 217 Compendium CIPUTRA PROPERTY Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,662 2,46 1,629 1,897 2,11 Gross profit 957 1, ,1 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (167) (254) (28) (299) (297) Forex gain/(losses) (3) 2 (2) - - Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (118) (157) (65) (76) (84) Minority interest (5) (22) (9) (13) (19) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories 1, ,313 1,226 1,345 Fixed assets 4,98 5,72 6,58 7,551 8,7 Other assets 2,3 2,231 2,53 2,681 2,932 Total assets 8,862 9,824 11,35 12,242 13,835 Interest bearing liabilities 2,611 3,174 4,868 5,91 5,13 Trade payables Other liabilities 1,167 1, ,455 2,729 Total liabilities 3,981 4,588 5,71 6,682 7,982 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 4,314 4,66 4,641 4,798 5,15 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (499) 29 (91) 78 1,15 Other operating items (395) (255) (49) (327) (387) Operating cash flow (127) 99 (64) 1,235 1,67 Net capital expenditure (748) (1,376) (1,147) (1,434) (1,577) Free cash flow (875) (468) (1,787) (2) 3 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings , Other financing (85) 24 (4) Net cash flow (49) 119 (133) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

202 217 Compendium ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA BUY* PX: IDR65 - TP: IDR82* ERAA, Indonesia s largest mobile phone distributor with licenses to distribute several popular brands, including Apple and Samsung could continue to do well in a consolidating handset distribution market. On the margin front, we expect to see an uptick by capitalizing on the ongoing exclusive partnership with ISAT and EXCL to develop and run their cellular stores. ERAA should also gain from the rapid rise of its e- commerce platform (Erafone.com) which, together with its brick & mortar stores, provides both comfort and a unique shopping experience. On valuation, we expect ERAA s net profit to continue to recover, in line with rising GDP. We upgrade ERAA to a BUY with a DCF-based TP of IDR82, reflecting a 217F PE of 7.8x. Risks: Slower purchasing power, delayed JV with ISAT & EXCL and failure to stop illegal handset imports due to unaccommodating government policies. Share price performance Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 14,451 2,8 21,755 23,54 25,479 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) n.a EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (39.3) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) 1,19 1,82 1,144 1,22 1,315 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ASP (IDR ) 1,168 1,29 1,355 1,49 1,465 Cellular phones (mn units) 1,529 13,26 13,918 14,474 15,53 Richard Danusaputra (richard@bahana.co.id) ext. 365 *New, please refer to appendix II Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 93/482 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 85/7 Majority shareholder (%) : PT Eralink International (6.) Share outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 2,9/39.7 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 1,755/13 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 6.3/.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : ERAA IJ/ERAA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 22

203 217 Compendium ERAJAYA SWASEMBADA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 14,451 2,8 21,755 23,54 25,479 Gross profit 1,289 1,56 1,648 1,764 1,943 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (181) (154) (14) (126) (118) Forex gain/(losses) (3) (2) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (82) (91) (112) (131) (156) Minority interest (3) (4) (3) (3) (3) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables 1,746 2,387 2,346 2,47 2,674 Inventories 2, 2,553 1,653 1,79 1,87 Fixed assets Other assets 1,83 2,297 2,44 2,562 2,77 Total assets 6,122 7,8 7,27 7,477 7,91 Interest bearing liabilities 1,563 1,59 1,289 1,29 1,9 Trade payables 1,326 2,855 2,131 2,367 2,687 Other liabilities Total liabilities 3,112 4,595 3,638 3,868 4,22 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,957 3,138 3,319 3,536 3,813 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net income Depreciation Working capital (288) (25) 36 Other operating items 298 (74) (32) (25) (31) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (326) (144) (127) (12) (1) Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (3) - (2) Other financing (339) (52) (86) (229) (194) Net cash flow 89 (43) 3 3 (15) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash balance Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

204 217 Compendium EXPRESS TRANSINDO UTAMA REDUCE* PX: IDR156 - TP: IDR135* The second-largest conventional taxi operator in Indonesia, TAXI is still experiencing major problems in retaining and hiring drivers. In order to overcome this issue, TAXI has substantially cut its daily mandatory payments to IDR15k, down 37.5% from IDR24k, effectively raising take-home driver pay. In the midst of intense industry competition causing severe earnings drops, TAXI has decided to initiate 4 cost-cutting programs to be executed in 217: (1) closing poorly performing taxi depots, (2) reducing the number of employees, (3) selling non-performing assets, and (4) loan restructuring. On sustained fierce competition with online-based taxis and possible financial distress faced by the company, we downgrade our rating from Buy to REDUCE and lower our 12M TP to IDR135, based on a 217F P/BV of.4x. Risks to our call include higher fleet utilization rates. Share price performance (IDR) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) TAXI IJ Px Last (%) (%) (2) (4) (6.2) (18.2) (19.7) 6.2 (.1) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M TAXI IJ relative to JCI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 4, 32, 24, 16, 8, 2 (2) (4) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) EBIT (IDRbn) () Net profit (IDRbn) (12) Bahana/consensus (%) - - na 1 99 EPS (IDR) (56) EPS growth (%) (1.8) (72.7) (471.8) na (5.2) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) (2.8) FCFPS (IDR) (444) 9 19 (39) (13) FCF yield (%) (284.8) (24.8) (8.2) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) (1.1).7.7 Div. yield (%) (6.4).5.4 note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Regular taxi (units) 1,55 1,5 8,25 8,25 8,25 Eagle taxi (units) 5 1, 2,15 2,15 2,15 Premium taxi (units) VATB (units) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 248/73 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 37/128 Majority shareholder (%) : Rajawali Group (51) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 2,146/49 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 332/25 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 1.7/.1 Bloomberg/Reuters code : TAXI IJ/TAXI.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 24

205 217 Compendium EXPRESS TRANSINDO UTAMA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT () Net interest inc./(expense) (133) (198) (181) (163) (144) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit (172) Taxes (34) (18) 51 (4) (4) Minority interest () () () () Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit (12) 9 8 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 2,124 2,24 1,84 1,847 1,871 Other assets Total assets 3,11 2,884 2,85 2,723 2,653 Interest bearing liabilities 1,747 1,633 1,523 1,38 1,237 Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 2,119 1,963 2,55 1,897 1,818 Minority interest Shareholders' equity Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT () Depreciation Working capital (273) (85) 347 (82) (8) Other operating items (31) (34) (489) (399) (362) Operating cash flow (53) (83) 14 Net capital expenditure (9) (15) 316 (41) Free cash flow (953) 2 48 (83) (28) Equity raised/(bought) (1) 17 Net borrowings 836 (114) (11) (143) (143) Other financing 19 (2) Net cash flow (1) (79) 326 (162) (119) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) (14.) ROAA (%) (4.2).3.3 EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) (.) Net margin (%) (18.6) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) (.) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

206 217 Compendium GAJAH TUNGGAL BUY PX: IDR1,85 - TP: IDR1,5* Earnings for GJTL, Indonesia s leading tire maker focusing on the lower-segment through its brand GT Radial, should have bottomed in 216, and we expect EPS growth recovery to take place on a stronger IDR outlook. Backed by a strong-in house R&D facility, the company s efforts to expand margins should help to minimize pressure from high commodity prices. We expect GJTL s 217 top line to grow 6% y-y as demand from overseas markets (43% of revenues) should remain solid. Closer to home, our expectation of higher GDP growth to 5.4% in 217 should lend support to GTJL s local tire sales. On valuation, GJTL looks attractive, trading at a 217F PE of 4.2x, a 5% discount to regional peers. We reaffirm our BUY call with a lower DCF-based 12-month TP of IDR1,5. Risks to our call are a weakerthan-expected IDR and higher-than-expected commodity prices. Share price performance (IDR) 1,65 1,35 1, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Volume (RHS) GJTL IJ Px Last (%) (%) (13.3) (23.7) (5) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M GJTL IJ relative to JCI Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 *New, please refer to appendix II 72.4 (') 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (5) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 13,71 12,97 13,691 14,481 15,22 EBIT (IDRbn) 1,154 1,112 1,622 1,788 1,877 Net profit (IDRbn) 27 (313) Bahana/consensus (%) - - na na na EPS (IDR) 77 (9) EPS growth (%) (216.1) (335.7) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) 14. (12.1) FCFPS (IDR) (19.) (28.) FCF yield (%) (17.5) (2.6) BVPS (IDR) 1,618 1,548 1,656 1,837 2,28 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Domestic 4W Volume (mn) Growth (%) (1.6) (15.) Domestic 2W Volume (mn) Growth (%) Export volumes (mn) Growth (%) 1.3 (4.6) 3. (2.9) - Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,755/47 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : na/na Majority shareholder (%) : Denham (49.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 3,485/39.3 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 3,781/28 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 12.9/1. Bloomberg/Reuters code : GJTL IJ/GJTL.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 26

207 217 Compendium GAJAH TUNGGAL Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 13,71 12,97 13,691 14,481 15,22 Gross profit 2,445 2,624 3,217 3,476 3,649 EBITDA 1,722 1,755 2,35 2,58 2,715 Depreciation EBIT 1,154 1,112 1,622 1,788 1,877 Net interest inc./(expense) (571) (688) (731) (76) (684) Forex gain/(losses) (179) (75) Other income/(expense) (9) (51) (17) (19) (22) Pre-tax profit 394 (332) 985 1,62 1,17 Taxes (124) 19 (246) (266) (293) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 27 (313) Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents ,74 1,557 S-T investments Trade receivables 2,69 2,411 2,251 2,381 2,499 Inventories 2,247 2,113 2,66 2,171 2,279 Fixed assets 7,611 8,734 9,31 9,454 9,56 Other assets 3,145 3,271 3,387 3,484 3,582 Total assets 16,122 17,59 18,136 18,92 19,816 Interest bearing liabilities 6,37 7,7 8,294 8,166 8,166 Trade payables 1,25 1,429 1,148 1,26 1,266 Other liabilities 2,91 2,986 2,925 3,127 3,316 Total liabilities 1,485 12,115 12,367 12,499 12,748 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 5,637 5,394 5,769 6,43 7,68 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1,154 1,112 1,622 1,788 1,877 Depreciation Working capital (488) (16) (293) (72) (76) Other operating items (9) 13 (17) (179) (184) Operating cash flow 1,225 1,75 1,888 2,33 2,455 Net capital expenditure (1,668) (1,937) (1,252) (945) (945) Free cash flow (443) (187) 635 1,385 1,51 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 41 1, (127) - Other financing (1,21) (1,276) (1,79) (975) (1,27) Net cash flow (1,55) (315) Cash balances, beginning 1, ,74 Ending cash ,74 1,557 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) 4.8 (5.7) ROAA (%) 1.7 (1.9) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) 2.1 (2.4) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

208 217 Compendium GARUDA INDONESIA BUY* PX: IDR342 - TP: IDR4 With more than 7 domestic and international flight destinations, GIAA is a potential beneficiary of Jokowi s accelerated tourism development program via airport upgrades, creation of 1 champion tourist destinations and free-entry visas for 169 countries. At this stage, we expect improved performance for GIAA s domestic flights and Citilink on expectation of a higher seat-load factor of 75% in 217F (215: 77.2%, 216F: 72%). This should allow for a slightly higher market share of 42% in 217F (215: 43%, 216F: 4.5%). GIAA s severe 6M market underperformance of 38% on recent ticket price wars, coupled with sizeable route expansion, has run its course, in our view. Thus, we upgrade GIAA to BUY from Reduce with a TP of IDR4, representing 217F EV/EBITDAR of 7x. Risks: Continued ticket price wars, especially on overseas routes, higher jet-fuel price and possible failure in market positioning for Citilink as premium LCC. Share price performance (IDR) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) GIAA IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (2.8) (8.7) (22.2) (34.5) (23.4) (3.7) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M GIAA IJ relative to JCI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, (1) (2) (3) (4) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Operating revenues (USDmn) 3,934 3,815 4,318 4,873 5,365 EBITDAR (USDmn) 586 1,163 1,238 1,57 1,671 EBIT (USDmn) (359) 83 (48) Net profit (USDm) (37) 76 (3) EPS (IDR) (179) 37 (15) EPS growth (%) na na (139.8) na 57.8 EV/EBITDA (x) (8.4) Adjusted EV/EBITDAR (x) P/E (x) na 9.3 (23.4) FCFPS (IDR) (14) (4) (3) (1) (17) FCF yield (%) (4.2) (1.2) (.9) (3.) (5.1) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ASK (mn) 5,155 54,812 53,136 58,51 65,282 RPK (mn) 35,997 42,324 42,969 47,751 53,271 Total aircraft Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 65/29 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 496/398 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (6.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 25,869/14.9 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 8,771/651 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 5./.4 Bloomberg/Reuters code : GIAA IJ/GIAA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 28

209 217 Compendium GARUDA INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Operating revenue 3,934 3,815 4,318 4,873 5,365 EBITDA (179) EBITDAR (excl. wet lease) 586 1,163 1,238 1,57 1,671 Depr., amort. & leasing excl ,8 1,29 1,448 1,553 et lease EBIT (359) 83 (48) Net interest income/(expense) (61) (62) (86) (89) (114) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) (36) Pre-tax profit (456) 17 (47) Taxes 88 (29) 17 (15) (24) Minority interest (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit (37) 76 (3) Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets Other assets 2,338 1,71 1,761 2,138 2,743 Total assets 3,113 3,31 3,478 3,72 4,251 Interest bearing liabilities 1,23 1,41 1,562 1,732 2,213 Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 2,234 2,359 2,525 2,75 3,294 Minority interest (52) Shareholders' equity Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT (359) 83 (48) Depreciation Working capital 54 (143) 11 (3) (62) Other operating items (149) (257) (99) (21) (268) Operating cash flow (324) (22) 9 (2) (37) Net capital expenditure (51) 116 (171) (25) (416) Free cash flow (375) (15) (81) (27) (452) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings Other financing (1) (5) 38 (43) (66) Net cash flow (46) (143) (4) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) (37.5) 8.5 (3.3) ROAA (%) (12.1) 2.4 (.9) EBITDAR margin (%) EBIT margin (%) (9.1) 2.2 (1.1) Net margin (%) (9.4) 2. (.7) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na 1.3 na Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days)-ar Creditor turnover (days)-ap Inventory turnover (days)

210 217 Compendium GLOBAL MEDIACOM REDUCE PX: IDR64 - TP: IDR55* BMTR is the media holding co. of Hary Tanoe s MNC Group, consisting of FTA TV & Content assets via its c.61% stake in MNCN, Pay TV assets via its c.88% stake in MSKY, and other new media ventures such as broadband (Playmedia) & online (Letang). While BMTR is a cheaper alternative play for exposure to MNCN, the company has suffered from underperformance of its Pay-TV arm amid competition. FX volatility plays a big role in BMTR s bottom line given its high unhedged USD debt exposure (c.usd45mn) and opex exposure to USD content cost (c.25%) vs. the bulk of its revenue in IDR. Despite Hary Tanoe s big plans to unlock the value of new subsidiary SKY Vision Network (SVN), we rate BMTR a REDUCE, given 11% downside potential to our TP of IDR55, based on 5% discount to our SOTP. Risks to our call: successful fundraising of SVN and higher-thanexpected earnings growth for MNCN. Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 1,657 1,573 11,86 12,26 13,547 EBIT (IDRbn) 2,675 2,5 2,419 2,563 2,881 Net profit (IDRbn) ,17 1,51 1,233 Bahana/consensus (%) - - na na na EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 14.4 (92.6) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (151) (11) FCF yield (%) (24) (2) BVPS (IDR) ,1 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 1,3 1,1 9 7 (') 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Adex Growth (%) 6.4 (.8) Pay TV Subs Revenue Growth (%) (.8) EBITDA Margin (%) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) BMTR IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (18.3) (25.9) (29.9) (37.7) (49.8) (55.3) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M BMTR IJ relative to JCI Henry Wibowo (henry.wibowo@bahana.co.id) ext.3622 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,26/61 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,636/1,267 Majority shareholder (%) : PT MNC Investama Tbk (47.8) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 14,199 / 51.6 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 8,732 / 65 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 13.9 / 1.1 Bloomberg/Reuters code : BMTR.IJ/BMTR.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 21

211 217 Compendium GLOBAL MEDIACOM Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,657 1,573 11,86 12,26 13,547 Gross profit 4,369 4,22 4,587 4,948 5,54 EBITDA 3,914 3,44 3,97 4,2 4,682 Depreciation 1,239 1,353 1,488 1,637 1,81 EBIT 2,675 2,5 2,419 2,563 2,881 Net interest inc./(expense) (273) (483) (314) (284) (224) Forex gain/(losses) (246) (862) Other income/(expense) (24) (91) (11) (6) (11) Pre-tax profit 1, ,95 2,219 2,547 Taxes (627) (331) (524) (555) (637) Minority interest (585) (231) (554) (613) (677) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit ,17 1,51 1,233 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1, ,47 2,79 3,42 S-T investments 2,664 2,125 2,125 2,5 2,5 Trade receivables 3,617 3,913 4,13 4,537 5,13 Inventories 2,39 1,912 1,897 2,134 2,347 Fixed assets 6,299 7,949 8,61 7,473 6,922 Other assets 9,259 9,962 9,521 9,521 9,521 Total assets 25,364 26,492 27,753 28,875 29,76 Interest bearing liabilities 7,172 8,146 6,852 6,352 5,352 Trade payables 1,36 2,117 2,1 2,363 2,599 Other liabilities 1, Total liabilities 9,478 11,198 9,885 9,648 8,884 Minority interest 4,66 4,643 5,198 5,811 6,488 Shareholders' equity 11,28 1,651 12,67 13,416 14,334 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 2,675 2,5 2,419 2,563 2,881 Depreciation 1,239 1,353 1,488 1,637 1,81 Working capital (2,4) 733 (192) (784) (453) Other operating items (1,387) (1,286) (847) (898) (97) Operating cash flow 487 2,851 2,868 2,518 3,258 Net capital expenditure (2,632) (3,3) (1,6) (1,5) (1,25) Free cash flow (2,145) (152) 1,268 1,468 2,8 Equity raised/(bought) 639 (1,1) Net borrowings 2, (1,293) (5) (1,) Other financing (1,314) (631) 1,87 (35) (315) Net cash flow (44) (854) 1, Cash flow at beginning 1,53 1, ,47 2,79 Ending cash flow 1, ,47 2,79 3,42 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

212 217 Compendium GUDANG GARAM BUY PX: IDR64,5 - TP: IDR81, Experiencing volume drops, GGRM, Indonesia s largest machine-rolled full-flavor (SKM FF) cigarette player, is suffering from its relatively lower brand equity and late entry into the light segment, particularly as current smoking trends continue to shift to low-tar/low-nicotine (LTLN) products and Bold (between LTLN and SKM FF). While competitive pressure may persist for the company, we expect improving consumer purchasing power on higher commodity prices, and a lower y-y excise tax hike to allow recovery in GGRM s 217 stick sales following its premium product pricing in 216. Our IDR81, TP, based on a 217F PE of 21x (5-year mean), should be supported by increased farmer incomes for GGRM s low-end target market cigarettes and lower capex to improve free cash flow. Risks include possible market share losses on the recent launch of Marlboro Filter Black, which competes directly with Surya 16. Share price performance (IDR) 75, 65, 55, 45, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) GGRM IJ Px Last (%) (%) 2 1 (1) (2) (3) (22.6) (14.4) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M GGRM IJ relative to JCI Michael W Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) (ext.362) 15.5 (') 2 1 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, (1) (2) (3) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 65,186 7,366 78,19 85,936 93,965 EBIT (IDRbn) 8,574 9,96 1,47 11,281 12,226 Net profit (IDRbn) 5,46 6,436 6,533 7,258 8,13 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) 2,81 3,345 3,395 3,772 4,165 EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (2,62) ,59 1,66 FCF yield (%) (3.2) BVPS (IDR) 17,151 19,698 2,493 23,77 25,921 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) ,6 1,188 1,32 Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F SKM sales volume (mn sticks) 72,551 7,161 69,19 69,8 7,498 SKM ASP (IDR/stick) ,11 1,12 1,22 SKT sales volume (mn sticks) 8,46 8,486 8,656 8,742 8,83 SKT ASP (IDR/stick) GGRM market share Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 63,7/4,5 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 65,/46,9 Majority shareholder (%) : Suryaduta Investama (69.3) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,924/23.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 124,14/9,24 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 49.3/3.6 Bloomberg/Reuters code : GGRM IJ/GGRM.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 212

213 217 Compendium GUDANG GARAM Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 65,186 7,366 78,19 85,936 93,965 Gross profit 13,38 15,486 16,712 18,953 2,829 EBITDA 1,14 11,621 11,968 13,354 14,493 Depreciation 1,44 1,715 1,921 2,73 2,267 EBIT 8,574 9,96 1,47 11,281 12,226 Net interest inc./(expense) (1,372) (1,43) (1,336) (1,68) (1,576) Forex gain/(losses) (15) - - Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit 7,255 8,635 8,796 9,757 1,771 Taxes 1,822 2,182 2,223 2,466 2,722 Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 5,46 6,436 6,533 7,258 8,13 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1,588 2,726 1,276 1,657 1,826 S-T investments Trade receivables 1,532 1,568 1,739 1,915 2,94 Inventories 34,739 37,256 41,619 45,144 49,92 Fixed assets 18,973 2,16 21,994 22,748 24,69 Other assets 1,41 1,849 2,5 2,258 2,469 Total assets 58,234 63,55 68,678 73,723 79,551 Interest bearing liabilities 18,147 2,561 23,645 23,172 22,79 Trade payables 4,871 2,37 2,648 2,893 3,46 Other liabilities 2,81 2,566 2,845 3,134 3,427 Total liabilities 25,1 25,498 29,138 29,199 29,542 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 33, 37,9 39,43 44,41 49,874 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 8,574 9,96 1,47 11,281 12,226 Depreciation 1,44 1,715 1,921 2,73 2,267 Working capital (5,224) (5,5) (4,246) (3,446) (3,62) Other operating items (3,132) (3,371) (3,515) (4,23) (4,213) Operating cash flow 1,658 3,21 4,27 5,885 6,678 Net capital expenditure (5,625) (2,848) (3,88) (2,827) (3,589) Free cash flow (3,967) ,58 3,89 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 5,169 2,414 3,84 (473) (463) Other financing (1,17) (1,628) (4,933) (2,24) (2,457) Net cash flow 184 1,138 (1,45) Cash flow at beginning 1,44 1,588 2,726 1,276 1,657 Ending cash flow 1,588 2,726 1,276 1,657 1,826 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

214 217 Compendium HM SAMPOERNA BUY PX: IDR3,93 - TP: IDR4,7* Armed with its strong brand equity and extensive distribution, Indonesia s largest market cap company (owned by Phillip Morris with an estimated 35% market share) HMSP must deal with tough competition and a high real excise tax hike ahead. On a brighter note, we expect improving purchasing power to support HMSP s top line. HMSP s highest sales contributor, A Mild (35% of total stick sales), has successfully regained its market share of 33%, despite a few ASP hikes, raising pricing to beyond the IDR1,/stick psychological level. Additionally, HMSP recently launched Marlboro Filter Black to compete in the machine-rolled (SKM) full flavor (FF) segment. On valuation, our IDR4,7 TP, based on 4x 217F PER at par with our target PER for UNVR, is warranted due to the following two risk factors: Government policy risks on excise and health awareness as well as a change in the top management. Share price performance (IDR) 4,5 4,3 4,1 3,9 3,7 3,5 27-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) HMSP IJ Px Last (%) (%) 5 (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (9.) (2.1).8 (8.6) (19.8) (11.9) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M HMSP IJ relative to JCI Michael W Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) (ext. 362) *New, please refer to appendix II (') 15, 1, 5, 5 (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 8,69 89,69 96,475 18, ,758 EBIT (IDRbn) 13,85 14,48 15,737 18,119 19,652 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,167 1,347 12,296 13,575 14,617 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (5.9) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Machine-rolled cig. Vol. (bn sticks) Machine-rolled cig. ASP (IDR/stick) ,9 1,95 Hand-rolled cig. Vol. (bn sticks) Hand-rolled cig. ASP (IDR/stick) ,22 Marlboro vol. (bn sticks) Marlboro ASP (IDR/stick) ,33 1,137 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 4,456/3,65 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 4,8/3,232 Majority shareholder (%) : Philip Morris Indonesia (92.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 116,318/7.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 457,13/33,94 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 33.2/2.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : HMSP IJ/HMSP.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 214

215 217 Compendium HM SAMPOERNA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 8,69 89,69 96,475 18, ,758 Gross profit 2,5 21,764 23,565 27,97 29,555 EBITDA 14,235 14,467 16,215 18,657 2,23 Depreciation EBIT 13,85 14,48 15,737 18,119 19,652 Net interest inc./(expense) 1 (69) Share of net results of associates Other income/(expense) (111) (62) (15) (15) (15) Pre-tax profit 13,74 13,917 16,56 18,284 19,672 Taxes 3,537 3,569 4,265 4,79 5,55 Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 1,167 1,347 12,296 13,575 14,617 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 65 1,719 2,992 1,252 2,383 S-T investments Trade receivables 1,1 2,459 2,663 2,988 3,251 Inventories 17,432 19,72 2,53 22,35 23,695 Fixed assets 5,92 6,281 6,662 7,492 7,862 Other assets 3,955 8,481 7,568 8,142 8,541 Total assets 28,381 38,11 4,388 42,224 45,732 Interest bearing liabilities 2, Trade payables 2,761 3,191 3,142 3,364 3,518 Other liabilities 9,286 2,84 3,279 3,611 3,881 Total liabilities 14,883 5,995 6,421 6,975 7,399 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 13,498 32,16 33,967 35,249 38,333 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 13,85 14,48 15,737 18,119 19,652 Depreciation Working capital 1,172 (9,32) (1,836) (2,84) (1,539) Other operating items (4,34) (4,624) (2,191) (4,792) (5,24) Operating cash flow 11, ,188 11,781 13,487 Net capital expenditure (1,641) (781) (86) (1,367) (948) Free cash flow 9, ,328 1,414 12,539 Equity raised/(bought) (21) 2, Net borrowings 393 (2,835) Other financing (1,427) (15,955) (1,55) (12,154) (11,49) Net cash flow (592) 1,654 1,273 (1,74) 1,13 Cash flow at beginning ,719 2,992 1,252 Ending cash flow 65 1,719 2,992 1,252 2,383 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) na na na Debts to assets (%) 2.5 nc nc nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

216 217 Compendium HOLCIM INDONESIA HOLD* PX: IDR89 - TP: IDR97* Fundamentals for SMCB, among the big 3 Indonesia cement players, are still the worst, as operating income remains in the red. Its East Java plant is still ramping up after 2 years, resulting in continued incurred losses. West Java competition is driving SMCB to tap the South Sumatra market which is currently weak given the region s exposure to CPO for income. While Holcim and La Farge s ongoing merger may provide some synergies at the group level, direct operational synergies are still being ironed out and appear to still be years away from implementation. We are not building in any assumptions regarding this in our numbers. SMCB is now trading at steep discounts to INTP or SMGR on P/Sales and EV/EBITDA. We will only be excited about SMCB once the turnaround in fundamentals occur, perhaps in 2H17. HOLD with TP at IDR97 based on 217F.9x PBV.Risk: More/less intense competition. Share price performance (IDR) 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) SMCB IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (24.) (5.8) (22.3) (21.8) (15.4) (3.7) (4) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M SMCB IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 3, 24, 18, 12, 6, (1) (2) (3) (4) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 9,484 9,239 9,97 9,34 9,717 EBIT (IDRbn) 1, Net profit (IDRbn) (92) Bahana/consensus (%) - - (36) 7 2 EPS (IDR) (12) 3 11 EPS growth (%) (3.7) (73.5) (152.4) (128.1) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) (74.3) FCFPS (IDR) (132) 24 (17) FCF yield (%) (14.9) 2.7 (12.) BVPS (IDR) 1,119 1,13 1,81 1,86 1,9 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) (9) 3 9 Div. yield (%) (1.).3 1. ; note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Volume capacity (' tons) 1,4 13,3 15,3 15,3 15,3 Export volumes (' tons) Domestic volumes (' tons) 8,756 8,635 8,23 8,613 9,44 Total volumes (' tons) 8,756 8,981 8,53 8,943 9,374 Utilization rate (%) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,385/865 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,5/65 Majority shareholder (%) : Holderfin BV (8.6) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 7,663/19.4 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 6,82/56 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 2.8/.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : SMCB IJ/SMCB.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 216

217 217 Compendium HOLCIM INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 9,484 9,239 9,97 9,34 9,717 Gross profit 2,776 2,139 2,19 2,185 2,261 EBITDA 1, ,296 1,354 1,438 Depreciation EBIT 1, Net interest inc./(expense) (298) (419) (489) (395) (38) Forex gain/(losses) (31) Other income/(expense) (66) Pre-tax profit (44) Taxes (31) (151) (48) (9) (29) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit (92) Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents ,54 1,98 S-T investments Trade receivables 1,35 1, ,21 1,62 Inventories Fixed assets 14,498 14,427 16,293 15,847 15,248 Other assets Total assets 17,199 17,322 18,845 19,615 19,492 Interest bearing liabilities 5,374 5,962 6,554 6,94 6,311 Trade payables 1,67 1,82 1,118 1,152 1,198 Other liabilities 2,176 1,828 2,885 3,235 3,632 Total liabilities 8,617 8,872 1,558 11,29 11,142 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 8,578 8,45 8,287 8,325 8,35 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1, Depreciation Working capital 366 (197) Other operating items (478) (14) (1) (239) (259) Operating cash flow 1,832 1, ,879 1,27 Net capital expenditure (2,815) (398) (2,699) (437) (3) Free cash flow (1,13) 185 (82) 834 1,22 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 1, (593) Other financing (897) (348) (68) 13 (61) Net cash flow (161) 424 (295) 1, Cash flow at beginning ,54 Ending cash flow ,54 1,98 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) (1.1).3 1. ROAA (%) (.5).1.4 Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) (1.).3.9 Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

218 217 Compendium INDOCEMENT TUNGGAL PRAKASA HOLD* PX: IDR14,575 - TP: IDR15,6* INTP, Indonesia s second largest cement company, cut prices by 7% in 2Q16 causing its EBIT margin to drop to 2%-25%, per management s guidance. We need to see if competitors follow suit, and if its market share loss stabilizes. INTP s regional competitors target bulk markets, which are contracted before project life; hence, INTP s price cuts may start to show results only after 6-9 months, at the earliest. In this cycle, INTP has seen the worst fall in supply share, with its fundamentals affected the most as it operates in a region where the utilization rate is the lowest, as INTP, SMCB, Siam Cement, Wilmar add 23mn tons pa grinding capacity to a market consuming 19mn. INTP is our second sector pick, given its size and balance sheet strength which should allow for mid-term investment to repair its supply share. HOLD with IDR15,6 TP (217F 16x PE). Risk: Lower/higher-than-expected intense competition. Share price performance (IDR) 22, 2, 18, 16, 14, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) INTP IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (8.6) (15.4) (2.2) (4) (36.2) (39.9) (5) (48.2) (6) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M INTP IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 8, 6, 4, 2, (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 19,996 17,798 15,424 16,39 17,5 EBIT (IDRbn) 5,88 5,29 3,572 3,789 4,15 Net profit (IDRbn) 5,291 4,357 3,841 3,577 3,789 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) 1,437 1,184 1, ,29 EPS growth (%) 5.6 (17.7) (11.8) (6.9) 5.9 EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) ,44 FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) 6,676 6,483 7,112 7,719 8,48 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) 1, Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Volume capacity (' tons) 2,5 2,5 24,9 24,9 24,9 Export volumes (' tons) Domestic volumes (' tons) 18,189 16,784 16,113 16,999 18,19 Total volumes (' tons) 18,257 16,96 16,332 17,273 18,362 Utilization rate (%) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 22,8/14,275 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 22,/13,75 Majority shareholder (%) : Birchwood Omnia Limited (51.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 3,681/36. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 53,654/3,979 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 26.8/2. Bloomberg/Reuters code : INTP IJ/INTP.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 218

219 217 Compendium INDOCEMENT TUNGGAL PRAKASA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 19,996 17,798 15,424 16,39 17,5 Gross profit 9,16 7,99 6,372 6,755 7,166 EBITDA 6,64 5,887 4,626 4,891 5,156 Depreciation ,54 1,13 1,142 EBIT 5,88 5,29 3,572 3,789 4,15 Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) (57) (94) Pre-tax profit 6,815 5,645 4,263 4,516 4,796 Taxes (1,521) (1,288) (422) (939) (1,7) Minority interest (3) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 5,291 4,357 3,841 3,577 3,789 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 11,256 8,656 9,54 11,687 14,272 S-T investments Trade receivables 2,64 2,58 1,999 2,132 2,253 Inventories 1,666 1,521 1,35 1,389 1,557 Fixed assets 12,144 13,814 16,392 17,498 18,312 Other assets 1,18 1,14 1,229 1,367 1,577 Total assets 28,885 27,638 3,465 34,74 37,972 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables 1,175 1, ,31 Other liabilities 3,57 2,68 3,349 4,682 5,981 Total liabilities 4,38 3,773 4,284 5,659 7,21 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 24,577 23,866 26,182 28,415 3,952 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 5,88 5,29 3,572 3,789 4,15 Depreciation ,54 1,13 1,142 Working capital (77) (91) (134) Other operating items (339) (1,59) 993 1, Operating cash flow 6,224 5,84 6,12 5,839 5,918 Net capital expenditure (3,87) (2,556) (3,616) (2,39) (2,74) Free cash flow 2,417 2,528 2,486 3,529 3,844 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (17) (15) (3) (15) (8) Other financing (3,739) (5,114) (1,571) (1,367) (1,251) Net cash flow (1,339) (2,6) 885 2,147 2,585 Cash balances, beginning 12,595 11,256 8,656 9,54 11,687 Ending cash 11,256 8,656 9,54 11,687 14,272 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross Margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na na Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

220 217 Compendium INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR BUY PX: IDR8,775 - TP: IDR1,5 Indonesia s largest consumer-packaged food company (7%+ market share in instant noodles), ICBP, is likely to continue enjoying margin expansion on a stronger IDR outlook and soft raw materials prices like flour (2% of COGS) and skim milk (35%) on favorable weather. In 217, we continue to like ICBP s defensive nature as its noodles should remain one of the most affordable staples in the market, priced at below USD.2/pack, despite past price hikes which have allowed for margin support. At this stage, we like ICBP s ability to grab higher market share for its condensed and liquid milk divisions, helped by more aggressive promotions. On valuation, our 12-month TP of IDR1,5 is based on a 217F PE of 3x, at par with ICBP s historical trading average. BUY. Risks include continued losses of its beverages division on rising A&P to gain market share and higher raw material prices. Share price performance (IDR) 1, 9, 8, 7, 6, 5, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 (') Volume (RHS) ICBP IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) (1) 16.8 (4.7) (2.4) (.) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M ICBP IJ relative to JCI Michael W Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) (ext. 362) *New, please refer to appendix II , 15, 1, 5, (5) (1) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 3,22 31,741 35,154 38,396 41,522 EBIT (IDRbn) 3,63 3,98 5,96 5,85 5,269 Net profit (IDRbn) 2,64 3,1 3,876 4,91 4,275 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) 1,27 1,355 1,56 1,775 2,1 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Noodles sales volume (bn packs) Avg. price per pack (IDR) 1,582 1,651 1,767 1,882 1,957 Dairy sales vol. ('tons) Dairy ASP (IDR/kg) 21,9 19,959 19,559 19,755 2,15 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,275/5,663 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 11,8/8,1 Majority shareholder (%) : First Pacific Co. Ltd. (8.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 11,662/19.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 12,333/7,59 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 51.5/3.8 Bloomberg/Reuters code : ICBP IJ/ICBP.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 22

221 217 Compendium INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 3,22 31,741 35,154 38,396 41,522 Gross profit 8,6 9,619 11,142 11,689 12,411 EBITDA 3,4 4,381 5,618 5,699 5,861 Depreciation EBIT 3,63 3,98 5,96 5,85 5,269 Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) 115 (168) (1) - - Other income/(expense) 36 (1) (11) (12) (13) Pre-tax profit 3,389 4,1 5,36 5,31 5,542 Taxes (857) (1,86) (1,245) (1,313) (1,37) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 2,64 3,1 3,876 4,91 4,275 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 7,343 7,658 1,949 11,387 13,142 S-T investments Trade receivables 2,92 3,364 3,725 4,69 4,4 Inventories 2,822 2,547 2,764 3,468 3,781 Fixed assets 5,89 6,556 7,133 8,519 9,227 Other assets 5,945 6,337 7,394 8,753 1,648 Total assets 24,881 26,56 32,56 36,28 41,274 Interest bearing liabilities 3,46 2,869 4,14 3,88 3,787 Trade payables 2,813 2,581 2,81 3,116 3,396 Other liabilities 3,493 4,553 5,75 7,226 9,257 Total liabilities 9,87 1,174 12,843 14,448 16,7 Minority interest ,25 1,128 1,242 Shareholders' equity 14,78 15,84 18,188 2,74 23,332 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 3,63 3,98 5,96 5,85 5,269 Depreciation Working capital (195) (56) (159) Other operating items (1,674) (2,786) (2,363) (2,568) (2,637) Operating cash flow 2,188 1,986 3,6 2,625 3,66 Net capital expenditure (1,32) (1,219) (1,1) (2,) (1,3) Free cash flow , ,766 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 886 (537) 1,271 (26) (93) Other financing Net cash flow 1, , ,755 Cash flow at beginning 5,526 7,343 7,658 1,949 11,387 Ending cash flow 7,343 7,658 1,949 11,387 13,142 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na na Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

222 217 Compendium INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR BUY PX: IDR7,7 - TP: IDR9,8* INDF, the holding company of the Salim Group, is likely to benefit from higher CPO prices (18% of sales) and the continued success of its subsidiary ICBP (48% of revenues), particularly amid less intense flour (24% of 9M16 revenues) competition, which has seen closures of 3 flour millers from 33 players to 3. Another positive catalyst stems from the recent Min Zhong divestment, although there has been no significant gain/loss; nevertheless, INDF has received SGD235mn of exchangeable bonds and SGD416mn of cash, mostly to be used for deleveraging. Our 12-month TP of IDR9,8 is based on a 217F PE of 19x, and set at a 4% discount to our target PE for ICBP (3x), as we take into account INDF s holding-company status and higher portion of volatile, commodity-based earnings. BUY. Risks include intensifying flour competition and lower-than-expected CPO prices. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 63,594 64,62 7,12 76,4 81,562 EBIT (IDRbn) 6,874 6,877 8,876 9,488 9,771 Net profit (IDRbn) 3,885 2,968 4,498 4,512 4,652 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 55.2 (23.6) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (8.7) FCF yield (%) 4.1 (1.) BVPS (IDR) 2,927 3,16 3,368 3,64 3,928 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 9,5 8,5 7,5 6,5 5,5 (') 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Flour sales volume (' tons) 2,88 2,937 3,5 3,174 3,33 Average flour price per kg (IDR) 6,918 6,53 6,27 6,369 6,117 Wheat price (USD/tons) ,5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) INDF IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) 35.3 (8.1) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M INDF IJ relative to JCI Michael W Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) (ext. 362) *New, please refer to appendix II (1) (2) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 9,2/4,84 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 11,5/5,83 Majority shareholder (%) : First Pacific Co. Ltd. (5.1) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 8,78/49.9 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 67,69/5,14 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 96.2/7.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : INDF IJ/INDF.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 222

223 217 Compendium INDOFOOD SUKSES MAKMUR Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 63,594 64,62 7,12 76,4 81,562 Gross profit 17,5 17,258 2,236 21,725 22,92 EBITDA 8,842 8,744 11,571 12,33 12,68 Depreciation 1,968 1,867 2,695 2,842 2,99 EBIT 6,874 6,877 8,876 9,488 9,771 Net interest inc./(expense) (882) (935) (781) (944) (814) Forex gain/(losses) 29 (1,132) Other income/(expense) (363) (34) (31) Pre-tax profit 6,229 4,962 8,183 8,24 8,656 Taxes (1,828) (1,73) (2,864) (2,789) (2,943) Minority interest (1,261) (742) (1,22) (1,242) (1,311) Income from discountinued op Net profit 3,885 2,968 4,498 4,512 4,652 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 14,158 13,76 14,477 17,986 2,951 S-T investments 665 1, Trade receivables 4,34 5,117 5,455 5,913 6,345 Inventories 8,455 7,627 8,2 8,923 9,643 Fixed assets 3,575 34,184 36,289 38,447 38,839 Other assets 27,27 39,825 28,115 3,661 33,191 Total assets 86,59 1,92 93,312 12,784 19,97 Interest bearing liabilities 31,84 33,637 29,224 31,869 31,852 Trade payables 5,151 5,174 6,44 6,577 7,18 Other liabilities 8,595 18,986 12,476 14,775 17,94 Total liabilities 44,829 57,798 47,744 53,221 56,53 Minority interest 15,529 15,853 16, 17,6 19,36 Shareholders' equity 25,71 27,269 29,568 31,963 34,494 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 6,874 6,877 8,876 9,488 9,771 Depreciation 1,968 1,867 2,695 2,842 2,99 Working capital 1,56 (2,127) 45 (618) (52) Other operating items (2,71) (2,665) (3,645) (3,734) (3,757) Operating cash flow 7,639 3,952 8,332 7,978 8,43 Net capital expenditure (4,872) (4,661) (4,8) (5,) (3,3) Free cash flow 2,767 (79) 3,532 2,978 5,13 Equity raised/(bought) , Net borrowings 3,764 2,554 (4,413) 2,645 (17) Other financing (6,4) (3,322) (1,395) (2,114) (2,121) Net cash flow 491 (1,81) 1,41 3,59 2,964 Cash flow at beginning 13,666 14,158 13,76 14,477 17,986 Ending cash flow 14,158 13,76 14,477 17,986 2,951 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

224 217 Compendium INDOMOBIL SUKSES INTERNATIONAL BUY PX: IDR1,4 - TP: IDR2, Going into 217, IMAS, the second-largest listed auto player, plans to expand its product lines by launching a new SUV model (Datsun) and new Nissan Juke model, targetting the IDR15mn and IDR25mn markets. IMAS plans to launch several new products thereafter. As a cyclical company with high operating leverage, IMAS should benefit from higher 217F GDP growth of 5.3% and a lower interest rate environment. A stable IDR would also support equity income from the manufactruring side. IMAS should also enjoy strong growth from its financial services, rental and logistics subsidiary, IMJS. We expect IMAS s net profit to fully recover in 218, following higher auto sales and market share. Thus, we expect IMAS s severe market underperformance to reverse and maintain our BUY rating and DCFbased TP of IDR2, reflecting a 217F PE of 2x (2% premium to region). Risks: Lower auto sales and margins. Share price performance (IDR) 2,7 2,2 1,7 1,2 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) IMAS IJ Px Last (%) (%) 2 (2) (4) (6) (8) (54.3) 9.7 (6.2) (19.3) (46.7) (61.) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M IMAS IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext. 368 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 2, 1,5 1, 5 2 (2) (4) (6) (8) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 19,458 18,1 15,278 19,64 3,828 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) (147) (46) (27) Bahana/consensus (%) - - (32) EPS (IDR) (53) (17) (75) 13 3 EPS growth (%) na na na na 19.6 EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) na na na FCFPS (IDR) (115) (36) (43) FCF yield (%) (8.2) (2.6) (3.7) BVPS (IDR) 2,7 2,33 1,958 2,62 2,336 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Automotive Market Sales ( ) 1,28 1,13 1,4 1,196 1,316 Nissan Market Share (%) IMAS retail sales (unit) 52,736 54,493 42,276 54,298 98,336 EBIT Margin (%) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,65/1,25 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,/1,2 Majority shareholder (%) : Gallant Venture (71.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 2,765/1.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 3,871/287 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) :.3/. Bloomberg/Reuters code : IMAS IJ/IMAS.JK, Reuters; note: based on 23 November 216 closing price 224

225 217 Compendium INDOMOBIL SUKSES INTERNATIONAL Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 19,458 18,1 15,278 19,64 3,828 Gross profit 2,636 2,748 2,71 3,376 4,721 EBITDA ,77 1,535 Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (74) (656) (688) (82) (978) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) ,113 Pre-tax profit (235) 388 1,86 Taxes (15) (226) 47 (78) (217) Minority interest (61) (23) (2) (25) (4) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit (147) (46) (27) Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1,134 1,323 1, ,7 S-T investments Trade receivables 3,12 3,252 3,28 3,725 5,549 Inventories 3,366 2,819 2,514 3,246 5,221 Fixed assets 4,378 4,593 4,791 5,145 5,461 Other assets 11,583 12,874 14,38 15,84 18,421 Total assets 23,474 24,861 26,358 28,93 35,659 Interest bearing liabilities 13,496 15,24 17,458 19,52 23,186 Trade payables 2,32 2,339 1,622 2,94 3,369 Other liabilities ,487 Total liabilities 16,754 18,164 19,849 22,11 28,41 Minority interest 995 1,74 1,94 1,119 1,159 Shareholders' equity 5,725 5,623 5,415 5,71 6,459 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (711) (858) (2,721) Other operating items Operating cash flow 1,84 1, (29) Net capital expenditure (1,97) (795) (6) (9) (9) Free cash flow (319) (1) (1,19) Equity raised/(bought) 66 (29) Net borrowings 957 1,528 2,433 1,594 4,134 Other financing (1,754) (1,732) (1,971) (1,985) (2,912) Net cash flow (491) 33 Cash balances, beginning 1,122 1,134 1,323 1, Ending cash 1,134 1,323 1, ,7 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) (2.6) (.8) (3.8) ROAA (%) (.6) (.2) (.8) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) (.8) (.3) (1.4) Payout ratio (%) (18.7) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

226 217 Compendium INDOSAT OOREDOO BUY PX: IDR6,3 - TP: IDR8,5 ISAT, a telco operator with the second largest number of subscribers, should continue to benefit from its aggressive promotions in the Outer Java area as well as its attractive packages in the Greater Jakarta area. Going into 217, we expect ISAT to continue its strong momentum, booking solid revenue growth helped by higher data usage and improved pricing policy. Thus, increasing top lines, coupled with wellmaintained operating costs, should lead to higher EBITDA margins and strong net earnings of IDR2tn in 217, +93% y-y, and IDR3.1tn in 218, +53% y-y. The stock is arguably the cheapest telco play in the region on a 217 EV/EBITDA of 3.6x, and we reaffirm our BUY call with a DCF-based TP of IDR8,5, reflecting a 217F EV/EBITDA of 4.4x, still an attractive 51% discount to its regional peers. Main risk: Weak IDR on USD debt. Share price performance (IDR) 7,5 7, 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) ISAT IJ Px Last (%) (%) 2 1 (1) (2) (15.1) 16.6 (.2) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M ISAT IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext. 368 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 2 1 (1) (2) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 24,85 26,769 28,945 31,388 33,979 EBIT (IDRbn) 1,87 2,74 3,663 4,568 5,467 Net profit (IDRbn) (2,8) (1,31) 1,62 2,45 3,131 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) (37) (241) EPS growth (%) na na na EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) na na FCFPS (IDR) 42 (152) FCF yield (%) 6.7 (2.4) BVPS (IDR) 2,56 2,297 2,551 3,41 3,79 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Subscribers ( ) 63,2 69,8 81,666 83,78 85,8 Net additional ( ) 3,6 6,6 11,866 2,42 2,93 ARPU (IDR /month) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 7,125/4,7 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,9/5,9 Majority shareholder (%) : Ooredoo Asia Pte Ltd (65.) Share outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 5,434/2.7 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 34,234/2,539 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 4.1/.3 Bloomberg/Reuters code : ISAT IJ/ISAT.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 226

227 217 Compendium INDOSAT OOREDOO Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 24,85 26,769 28,945 31,388 33,979 Gross profit EBITDA 1,33 11,473 12,452 13,479 14,495 Depreciation 8,226 8,769 8,789 8,911 9,28 EBIT 1,87 2,74 3,663 4,568 5,467 Net interest inc./(expense) (2,264) (2,611) (2,168) (1,712) (1,144) Forex gain/(losses) (243) (1,293) Other income/(expense) (1,262) (587) Pre-tax profit (1,962) (1,786) 1,627 2,956 4,423 Taxes (47) (739) (1,16) Minority interest (13) (147) (158) (172) (186) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit (2,8) (1,31) 1,62 2,45 3,131 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 3,486 3,71 2,123 2,452 2,82 S-T investments Trade receivables 2,11 2,741 2,824 3,62 3,315 Inventories Fixed assets 4,776 41,822 39,88 38,115 36,765 Other assets 6,858 7,85 6,432 6,949 7,498 Total assets 53,27 55,389 51,254 5,65 5,456 Interest bearing liabilities 23,146 23,676 2,676 16,676 11,676 Trade payables Other liabilities 15,134 17,685 15,56 15,651 16,232 Total liabilities 38,971 42,125 36,522 33,165 28,799 Minority interest ,65 Shareholders' equity 13,618 12,483 13,863 16,522 2,593 Cashflow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1,87 2,74 3,663 4,568 5,467 Depreciation 8,226 8,769 8,789 8,911 9,28 Working capital 521 (557) (85) (194) (24) Other operating items (1,241) (1,692) (4,576) (2,446) (2,34) Operating cash flow 9,313 9,225 7,791 1,839 11,987 Net capital expenditure (7,33) (1,48) (7,) (7,443) (7,94) Free cash flow 2,28 (823) 791 3,396 4,84 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (785) 53 (3,) (4,) (5,) Other financing (243) ,267 Net cash flow 1, (1,578) Cash balances, beginning 2,234 3,486 3,71 2,123 2,452 Ending cash 3,486 3,71 2,123 2,452 2,82 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) (13.5) (1.) ROAA (%) (3.7) (2.4) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) (8.3) (4.9) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

228 217 Compendium INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH BUY PX:IDR16,2 TP:IDR19,46 Going into 217, ITMG, Indonesia s leading coal supplier known for its coal quality, is in a sweet spot given the current low oil price, high coal price operating conditions. Additionally, having formed a JV company, ITM Banpu Power, it plans to deal directly in IPP tenders focusing on big powerplant capacity that ranges between 8-1,MW. Supported by higher coal index prices, we expect ITMG to experience gross margin expansion, leading to 217F net profit growth of 25.5% y-y and 11.9% y-y in 218F. Despite the short mine life of 8-1 years, we expect Indo Tambangraya Megah to perform much better in 217F and 218F as the company focuses on: (1) Internal mining contracts, (2) IPP tenders and (3) mine acquisitions. We retain our BUY rating with a 12M DCF-based TP of IDR19,46 and WACC of 14.5%. Risks to our call: Lower coal price and higher-than-expected stripping ratio. Share price performance (IDR) 18, 14, 1, 6, 2, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Volume (RHS) ITMG IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M ITMG IJ relative to JCI Andrew Hotama (andrew.franklin@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II (') 5 15, 1, 5, Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (USDm) 1,943 1,589 1,22 1,513 1,54 EBIT (USDm) Net profit (USDm) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) 2, ,122 1,48 1,577 EPS growth (%) 1.4 (64.3) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) 1,625 1,838 1,612 1,383 1,265 FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) 9,296 9,966 9,928 9,783 9,862 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) 1, ,122 1,48 1,498 Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales volume (mt) Newcastle spot price (USD/ton) Avg. selling price (USD/ton) Stripping ratio Avg. exchange rate (IDR/USD) 11,875 13,494 13,5 13,5 13,5 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 18,35/4,675 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 14,18/5,74 Majority shareholder (%) : Banpu Minerals (65.1) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,13/29.1 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 18,35/1,346 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 3./2.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : ITMG IJ/ITMG.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 228

229 217 Compendium INDO TAMBANGRAYA MEGAH Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,943 1,589 1,22 1,513 1,54 Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) (1) (5) (2) - - Other income/(expense) 21 (54) (17) (24) (15) Pre-tax profit Taxes (62) (76) (39) (49) (55) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets Other assets Total assets 1,31 1,178 1,111 1,168 1,138 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Shareholders' equity Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (36) 19 (1) (4) (41) Other operating items (63) (9) (8) (58) (46) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (47) (8) (34) (62) (62) Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (2) 1 (1) - - Other financing (215) (113) (97) (12) (123) Net cash flow (63) (4) (17) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na na Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

230 217 Compendium INTILAND DEVELOPMENT* BUY PX: IDR515 - TP: IDR68 Known as a high-end specialist with more than 4 years experience, DILD is focusing on high-rise projects in order to maximize its expensive landbanks located in the Greater Jakarta and Surabaya areas. Further catalysts should be derived from plans to develop its mid-low end 1,83ha Maja and H island reclamation projects in 218. In 217, post the tax amnesty program, we believe DILD will benefit from an expected increase in high-end property demand. With DILD having 4 ready-to-sell luxury apartments worth IDR1.4tn priced at IDR25-5mn/sqm, we forecast 15% marketing sales growth in 217. Given DILD s high-value assets, ample landbank and solid project take-up rates, we initiate coverage on the counter with a 12-month target price of IDR68, based on 7% discount to our 217F NAV. BUY. Risks to our call include infrastructure-development delays and continued slow high-end property demand. Share price performance (IDR) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) DILD IJ Px Last (') 2, 15, 1, 5, (%) (%) (2) (2) (4) (4) (6) (6) (8) (8) (8.2) (7.6) (7.6) (1) (8.9) (1) (12) (1.1) (12) (14) (12.7) (14) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M DILD IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 1,828 2,21 2,59 2,214 2,361 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 33.7 (6.3) (26.7) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (43) 15 (8) 6 13 FCF yield (%) (.4).1 (.8).1.1 BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price NAV Calculation 217F Land bank (Ha) 2,47 Total value (IDRbn) 13,929 Discount (%) 7 Adjusted NAV (IDR) 7,12 Adjusted NAV/share (IDR) 68 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 665/455 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 78/595 Majority shareholder (%) : UBS AG/Singapore (22.2) Share outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,267/8.9 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 5,338/395 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 14.1/1.1 Bloomberg/Reuters code : DILD IJ/DILD.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 23

231 217 Compendium INTILAND DEVELOPMENT Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,828 2,21 2,59 2,214 2,361 Gross profit 993 1, ,32 1,118 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (87) (71) (133) (153) (168) Forex gain/(losses) () Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (96) () (99) (16) (15) Minority interest (3) (18) (18) (18) (18) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories 3,125 2,13 2,839 3,65 4,78 Fixed assets Other assets 4,957 7,41 8,131 8,685 9,419 Total assets 9,8 1,289 11,849 13,244 14,61 Interest bearing liabilities 2,12 3,193 4,386 5,42 5,65 Trade payables Other liabilities 2,37 1,993 2,471 3,117 3,767 Total liabilities 4,539 5,518 7,15 8,341 9,62 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 4,382 4,682 4,74 4,85 4,878 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (1,91) 942 (683) Other operating items 392 (453) (21) (46) (56) Operating cash flow (95) 977 (293) Net capital expenditure (345) (824) (526) (575) (86) Free cash flow (44) 153 (819) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 47 (197) 1, Other financing (7) (13) (231) (253) (288) Net cash flow 23 (148) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

232 217 Compendium JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA BUY PX: IDR1,755 - TP: IDR2,4 JPFA, Indonesia s second-largest and most integrated poultry player with exposure in aquaculture and cattle, is the main beneficiary of the current high prices of DOC and broiler, with both contributing nearly 45% to total sales, higher compared to feed sales of 38%. Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) recently purchased 1.4% of JPFA s total shares, with a holding period of 3-5 years. As KKR has many businesses in poultry and aquaculture feeds, the tie-up should bring positive synergies to JPFA. Additionally, the government has signed an MoU with the associations, citing the need for large poultry farmers to build slaughterhouses, which should increase broiler demand. JPFA trades at 1.8x 217F PE, a 37% discount to CPIN. Thus, we retain our positive view and raise our TP to IDR2,4, based on a 15x 217F PE, more than a 1% discount to CPIN, sufficient to account for JPFA s high leverage. Risk: High corn prices in 217. Share price performance (IDR) 1,9 1, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Volume (RHS) JPFA IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M JPFA IJ relative to JCI Michael W. Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) ext. 362 (') 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 24,459 25,23 27,875 3,53 31,727 EBIT (IDRbn) 1,285 1,728 3,56 3,13 2,278 Net profit (IDRbn) ,25 1,789 1,196 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (43.) (15.) (33.1) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (26) FCF yield (%) (1.5) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Feed ASP (IDR/kg) 5,929 5,81 5,845 6,59 6,172 Feed volume (k ton) 2,776 2,61 2,61 2,688 2,769 DOC ASP (IDR/chick) 4,54 5,61 6,299 6,434 6,258 DOC volume (mn bird) Broiler ASP (IDR/kg) 16,153 17,526 21,733 22,62 21,472 Broiler volume (k tons) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,975/416 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,5/1,4 Majority shareholder (%) : Japfa Pte. Ltd. (51.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,64/37. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 2,25/1,485 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 12.3/.9 Bloomberg/Reuters code : JPFA IJ/JPFA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 232

233 217 Compendium JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 24,459 25,23 27,875 3,53 31,727 Gross profit 3,426 3,993 6,126 5,997 5,26 EBITDA 1,729 2,247 4,118 3,831 3,76 Depreciation EBIT 1,285 1,728 3,56 3,13 2,278 Net interest inc./(expense) (678) (663) (539) (462) (496) Forex gain/(losses) (78) (479) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit ,25 2,672 1,787 Taxes Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit ,25 1,789 1,196 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents ,939 1, S-T investments Trade receivables 1,243 1,2 1,375 1,54 1,565 Inventories 5,134 5,855 5,959 6,714 7,251 Fixed assets 6,362 6,89 7,99 7,398 7,599 Other assets 2,241 2,383 2,518 2,714 2,815 Total assets 15,759 17,159 18,9 19,637 2,64 Interest bearing liabilities 7,24 6,828 5,946 5,346 4,8 Trade payables 2,4 2,746 2,681 3,21 3,263 Other liabilities 1,335 1,476 1,644 1,799 1,871 Total liabilities 1,579 11,5 1,272 1,167 9,934 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 4,755 5,612 8,169 9,11 9,67 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1,285 1,728 3,56 3,13 2,278 Depreciation Working capital (468) (63) (376) Other operating items (815) (1,233) (1,377) (1,254) (1,41) Operating cash flow 1,252 1,115 2,273 1,947 1,658 Net capital expenditure (1,528) (993) (9) (1,) (1,) Free cash flow (277) 123 1, Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (372) (412) (881) (6) (546) Other financing (329) 422 (156) (989) (585) Net cash flow (978) 133 1,38 (643) (473) Cash flow at beginning 1, ,939 1,296 Ending cash flow ,939 1, Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

234 217 Compendium JASA MARGA BUY PX: IDR4,21 - TP: IDR5,287 JSMR, Indonesia s leading toll road operator with a 61% market share, is likely to enjoy significant growth ahead as its operating assets should jump from 593km currently (19 toll road concessions) to 1,224km (3 toll road concessions) in 22 with new projects in Greater Jakarta, Java, Sumatera, Kalimantan and Sulawesi. At the same time, JSMR should also improve its cost structure as the company plans to increase its electronic transactions from 22% currently to 8% in 22, resulting in lower labor costs (2% of revenue). Going forward, JSMR should also benefit from lower interest rates given our high net gearing estimate of 18% for 217. On Indonesia s long-term infra spending and economic growth, JSMR is a BUY with a DCF-based TP of IDR5,287, implying 217F PER of 22.5x. Risks: land clearing delays, lower inflation-based tariff hikes, continued resistance from labor unions on the electronic payment system. Share price performance (IDR) 6,5 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 (32.9) (3.) Volume (RHS) JSMR IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (13.7) (3.1) (34.4) (29.5) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M JSMR IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext.368 (') 4, 3, 2, 1, (1) (2) (3) (4) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 7,253 7,646 8,785 9,648 11,228 EBIT (IDRbn) 2,85 3,235 3,691 3,948 4,532 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,422 1,466 1,734 1,871 2,25 Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (274) (285) (1,15) (1,979) (164) FCF yield (%) (6.5) (6.8) (24.1) (47.) (3.9) BVPS (IDR) 1,39 1,442 1,884 2,66 2,263 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Traffic volumes (',) 1,313 1,374 1,44 1,515 1,619 Volumes growth (%) 4.3% 4.6% 4.8% 5.2% 6.8% Avg. tariff (%) 5,6 5,184 5,666 5,913 6,459 Tariff growth (%) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 6,25/4,19 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 8,8/4,6 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (7.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 6,8/3. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 28,628/4,19 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 41.6/3.1 Bloomberg/Reuters code : JSMR IJ/JSMR.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 234

235 217 Compendium JASA MARGA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 7,253 7,646 8,785 9,648 11,228 Gross profit EBITDA 3,621 3,949 4,551 4,998 5,872 Depreciation ,5 1,34 EBIT 2,85 3,235 3,691 3,948 4,532 Net interest inc./(expense) (95) (1,231) (1,391) (1,78) (2,166) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) (5) Pre-tax profit 1,85 2,68 2,36 2,3 2,426 Taxes (614) (749) (82) (782) (825) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 1,422 1,466 1,734 1,871 2,25 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 3,291 3,323 4,22 4,24 4,341 S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 24,643 25,779 35,935 52,641 56,559 Other assets 3,871 7,452 7,83 7,28 7,536 Total assets 31,86 36,725 47,237 64,279 68,695 Interest bearing liabilities 13,283 15,921 19,775 31,35 31,599 Trade payables 1,253 1,847 2,149 2,36 2,746 Other liabilities 6,33 6,588 7,623 8,412 9,495 Total liabilities 2,839 24,356 29,547 41,87 43,84 Minority interest 1,561 1,95 4,78 7,546 8,55 Shareholders' equity 9,46 1,419 13,612 14,927 16,349 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 2,85 3,235 3,691 3,948 4,532 Depreciation ,5 1,34 Working capital Other operating items (1,18) (2,719) (1,963) (1,745) (2,196) Operating cash flow 2,456 1,575 2,884 3,456 4,73 Net capital expenditure (4,437) (3,637) (1,217) (17,755) (5,257) Free cash flow (1,981) (2,62) (7,333) (14,299) (1,184) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 1,167 2,638 3,853 11, Other financing 591 (544) 4,178 3, Net cash flow (223) Cash balances, beginning 3,514 3,291 3,323 4,22 4,24 Ending cash 3,291 3,323 4,22 4,24 4,341 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days) na na na na na 235

236 217 Compendium J RESOURCES BUY PX: IDR28 TP: IDR34* PSAB, Indonesia s leading pure gold miner, should be one of best ways for investors to play on gold prices given increasing uncertainities in the global economic outlook, especially post the election victory of Donald Trump in the US. We note that PSAB books all of its gold revenue at spot prices with a minimal time lag towards an impact on earnings. Other than the possible benefit stemming from higher ASPs, PSAB is likely to enjoy increased production output in 217 from the company s new production mine sites in PANI and DOUP (ex-bhp assets). PSAB s current FY17E PER of 16.6x and EV/EBITDA of 6.7x look undemanding at 3-5% discounts compared to regional gold miners. We utilize the DCF method, based on WACC of 11% and LTG of 1%, and arrive at a 12-month target price of IDR34, translating to 21% upside potential from the current price level. Risks to our call include Fed rate hikes/strong US dollar, and a low exploration success rate. Share price performance (IDR) (') 25, 2, 15, 1, Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (USDm) EBIT (USDm) Net profit (USDm) Bahana/consensus (%) na EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (11) FCF yield (%) (3.8) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Gold sales volume (oz) 21, 244,85 21, 231, 256, Gold ASP (USD/oz) 1,28 1,216 1,271 1,316 1, , Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) PSAB IJ Px Last (%) (%) 2 1 (1) (2) (11.3) (8.9) (14.3) (15.8) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M PSAB IJ relative to JCI Andrew Hotama (andrew.franklin@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II 2 1 (1) (2) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 414/28 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 6/6 Majority shareholder (%) : J Resources Mining Limited (92.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 26,46 /7.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 7,49/545 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 3.9/.3 Bloomberg/Reuters code : PSAB IJ/PSAB.JK ; based on 23 November 216 closing price 236

237 217 Compendium J RESOURCES Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (27) (27) (3) (31) (27) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (2) (26) (28) (32) (38) Minority interest (3) (7) (6) (6) (8) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets Other assets Total assets Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Shareholders' equity Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital 8 (1) 3 (2) (1) Other operating items (43) (44) (61) (64) (81) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (88) (35) (43) (52) (65) Free cash flow (21) Equity raised/(bought) () Net borrowings (8) (64) (19) (53) (25) Other financing Net cash flow (16) (6) 16 (18) 2 Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

238 217 Compendium KALBE FARMA BUY PX: IDR 1,5 - *TP: IDR1,88 As Indonesia s leading listed pharmaceutical company with 1% hospital and pharmacy coverage on the ground, KLBF is one of the major beneficiaries of the growing healthcare demand, supported by the government s National Health Insurance program. At this stage, KLBF s products (5% exported) are mainly backed by its fastest growing division, nutritionals (28% of revenues), followed by distribution (3%), prescription (24%) and consumer health (18%). In 217, we believe the stable IDR and growing high-yield oncology products will help offset margin pressure from higher contribution by lower-margin products (unbranded generics) and business (logistics). KLBF s market outperformance should persist with likely high ROEs of 2%+. BUY with a IDR1,88 TP, based on a 217F PE of 36x, a 25% discount to UNVR s target PE. Risks: IDR weakness, higher raw materials prices and price caps from competition/policy risks. Share price performance (IDR) 1,9 1,7 1,5 1,3 1,1 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16.2 Volume (RHS) KLBF IJ Px Last (%) (%) 5 (5) (1) (15) (2.7) (9.1) (13.6) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M KLBF IJ relative to JCI Renaldy Effendy (renaldy@bahana.co.id) ext 366 *New, please refer to appendix II 2.5 (1.1) (') 4, 3, 2, 1, 5 (5) (1) (15) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 17,369 17,887 19,584 21,622 23,945 EBIT (IDRbn) 2,763 2,647 2,974 3,28 3,515 Net profit (IDRbn) 2,66 2,4 2,229 2,451 2,71 Bahana/cons. (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 7.6 (3.) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales growth (%) Prescription (%) 11.9 (.8) Consumer Health (%) Nutritionals (%) Distribution (%) (5.2) (2.2) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,815/1,185 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,15/1,25 Majority shareholder (%) : The Kalbe Family (56.6) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 46,875/43.4 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 7,313/5,215 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 48.6/3.6 Bloomberg/Reuters code : KLBF IJ/KLBF.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 238

239 217 Compendium KALBE FARMA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 17,369 17,887 19,584 21,622 23,945 Gross profit 8,476 8,592 9,28 1,156 11,129 EBITDA 2,947 2,854 3,29 3,473 3,811 Depreciation EBIT 2,763 2,647 2,974 3,28 3,515 Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) (38) (45) (79) (69) (59) Pre-tax profit 2,766 2,721 3,22 3,267 3,591 Taxes (643) (663) (734) (751) (826) Minority interest (57) (53) (59) (64) (65) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 2,66 2,4 2,229 2,451 2,71 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1,895 2,719 2,992 3,233 3,556 S-T investments Trade receivables 2,347 2,355 2,32 2,36 2,298 Inventories 3,91 3,3 2,996 3,167 3,363 Fixed assets 3,44 3,938 4,741 5,341 5,94 Other assets 1,73 1,681 1,941 2,24 2,434 Total assets 12,439 13,696 14,99 16,25 17,592 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables 1,133 1,69 1,185 1,319 1,474 Other liabilities 1,211 1,261 1,477 1,59 1,644 Total liabilities 2,675 2,758 3,147 3,227 3,521 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 9,33 1,465 11,331 12,46 13,462 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 2,763 2,647 2,974 3,28 3,515 Depreciation Working capital (133) (112) (51) Other operating items (563) (593) (536) (763) (787) Operating cash flow 2,251 2,374 2,79 2,598 2,972 Net capital expenditure (724) (82) (1,25) (1,) (1,) Free cash flow 1,527 1,554 1,54 1,598 1,972 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (277) (86) 4 Other financing 28 8 (29) (46) (32) Net cash flow Cash flow at beginning 1,426 1,895 2,719 2,992 3,233 Ending cash flow 1,895 2,719 2,992 3,233 3,556 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na na Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

240 217 Compendium KAWASAN INDUSTRI JABABEKA BUY PX: IDR286 - TP: IDR45 Having the largest landbank (3,248ha) and highest recurring income (9M16: 65%, from its 13MW power plant) in the sector, KIJA is enjoying greater income stability despite the current weak industrial land demand on the ground. Looking ahead, we see a positive catalyst from KIJA s plan to build a 22MW power plant in Cikarang. We remain positive on the planned launch of KIJA s Kendal industrial estates in 217 given the current weak demand in Cikarang. Thus, we have a 217 marketing sales target of IDR1.5tn (+3% y-y), of which 2% would be derived from Kendal. We maintain our 12-month target price of IDR45 based on a 55% discount to the 217F NAV, below the sector average of 68% given KIJA s high recurring income portion. Risks to our call would be IDR depreciation given its USD261mn debt as well as any delay in the management s plan to launch the Kendal project. Share price performance (IDR) (') 32, 2 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) KIJA IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) (1) 2.3 (1.7) (9.) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M KIJA IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II , 16, 8, (5) (1) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 2,799 3,14 2,789 3,229 3,443 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (18.4) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (14) (23) 18 (6) (1) FCF yield (%) (4.8) (8.1) 6.3 (1.9) (.2) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price NAV calculation NAV Table 217F Land bank (Ha) 3,248 Total value (IDRbn) 24,535 NAV/share (IDR) 1,2 Discount (%) 55 Adjusted NAV/share (IDR) 45 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 34/29 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 5/32 Majority shareholder (%) : Meadwood Capital (16.1) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 2,662/76.6 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 5,99/438 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 5.3/.4 Bloomberg/Reuters code : KIJA IJ/KIJA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 24

241 217 Compendium KAWASAN INDUSTRI JABABEKA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 2,799 3,14 2,789 3,229 3,443 Gross profit 1,252 1,389 1,158 1,44 1,54 EBITDA 1,6 1, ,72 1,141 Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (316) (476) (352) (36) (368) Forex gain/(losses) (66) (324) Other income/(expense) (6) - - Pre-tax profit Taxes (166) (77) (146) (168) (178) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents , S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 2,228 2,192 2,144 2,96 2,92 Other assets 971 1,22 1,263 1,314 1,375 Total assets 8,59 9,741 1,566 11,255 12,13 Interest bearing liabilities 2,684 3,51 3,686 3,746 3,813 Trade payables Other liabilities 1,16 1,8 1,65 1,887 2,242 Total liabilities 3,864 4,763 5,439 5,747 6,177 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 4,351 4,685 5,7 5,379 5,787 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (35) (44) (71) (47) (31) Other operating items (721) (77) 342 (351) (262) Operating cash flow , Net capital expenditure (527) (767) (753) (788) (862) Free cash flow (277) (479) 373 (114) (14) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings Other financing 116 (226) (321) (26) (29) Net cash flow () (81) 23 Cash flow at beginning , Ending cash flow , Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

242 217 Compendium KIMIA FARMA REDUCE PX: IDR2,7 - TP: IDR1,65 The largest state-owned pharmaceutical company, KAEF, has plenty of growth catalysts ahead: adding 1 pharmacies p.a. (current: 8) and 5 clinics p.a. (current: 35), and higher demand for generic drugs under the National Health Insurance (JKN) scheme. KAEF expects its import dependency to fall 4%, supported by its new Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients plant with total capacity of 3tons/annum and 2 nd phase of the pharmaceutical salt ingredient plant (capacity 4k tons/annum, which is expected to be operational in 2H18. Separately, KAEF is planning to conduct a rights issue on top of its IDR3bn MTN issuance in 217 to finance future expansions. We see KAEF as overvalued given its 217F PE of 49.1x, at a 7% premium to KLBF despite its small-cap status. REDUCE with IDR1,65 TP, based on 3x 217F PE, on a more reasonable 17% discount to KLBF s valuation at target. Risk: Accelerated JKN program. Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 4,521 4,86 5,591 6,452 7,572 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 19.3 (2.8) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) 45 9 (18) (117) (128) FCF yield (%) (4.) (4.3) (4.7) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Volume (RHS) KAEF IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M KAEF IJ relative to JCI Renaldy Effendy (renaldy@bahana.co.id) ext. 366 (') 15, 1, 5, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F % generic to sales BPJS members (mn) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 3,4/785 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,6/1,3 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (1.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 5,554/. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 14,94/1,18 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 235.5/17.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : KAEF IJ/KAEF.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 242

243 217 Compendium KIMIA FARMA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 4,521 4,86 5,591 6,452 7,572 Gross profit 1,385 1,537 1,778 2,78 2,484 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (27) (36) (62) (17) (149) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (86) (85) (96) (15) (117) Minority interest (2) (4) (5) (6) (6) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories ,122 Fixed assets ,569 2,469 3,43 Other assets Total assets 3,13 3,236 4,213 5,341 6,459 Interest bearing liabilities ,577 2,27 Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 1,292 1,374 2,88 2,939 3,752 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 1,699 1,836 2,15 2,388 2,692 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (27) (165) (62) (139) (197) Other operating items Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (95) (158) (95) (1,) (1,1) Free cash flow 25 5 (597) (65) (711) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 285 (12) Other financing (356) (151) (33) (12) (62) Net cash flow 179 (112) (75) (51) (144) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) nc nc Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

244 217 Compendium KINO INDONESIA HOLD PX: IDR3, - *TP: IDR3,1 KINO, a sizeable FMCG company, should use its 25 years of experience in the industry to deal with higher raw materials prices which have resulted in 216 margin pressure across more than its 2 brands and 15 product categories, including personal care (49% of sales), beverages (35%), food (16%) and recently pharmaceutical. Given its innovative profile, KINO is expanding its product portfolio by launching 76 new SKUs this year and another 5 in 217, with an additional 3% capacity production at its personal care plant. Its products are distributed overseas and locally with more than 25 distribution points in general trade (75%) and modern trade (25%). On valuation, our IDR3,1 TP reflects a 217F PE of 16.7x, at 25% discount to the sector ex-unvr given slower earnings growth expected ahead due to increasing competition. Downside risk: Higher commodity prices. Upside risk: strong sales in new products. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 3,339 3,64 3,719 4,6 4,419 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (2.) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (45) (267) (36) (37) (1) FCF yield (%) (15.) (8.9) (1.2) (1.2) (.) BVPS (IDR) 714 1,244 1,367 1,497 1,639 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 7,5 6,5 5,5 4,5 3,5 (') 2, 15, 1, 5, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Personal care growth (%) (5) 2 5 Beverages growth (%) Foods growth (%) 338 (27) ,5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 (35.4) (18.8) Volume (RHS) KINO IJ Px Last (%) (%). (2) (4) (6) (8) (42.6) (58.6) (29.7) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M KINO IJ relative to JCI Renaldy Effendy (renaldy@bahana.co.id) ext. 366 *New, please refer to appendix II (2) (4) (6) (8) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 7,175/2,93 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 4,9/2,5 Majority shareholder (%) : Kino Investindo (69.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,429/9.6 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 4,286/318 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 4.9/.4 Bloomberg/Reuters code : KINO IJ/KINO.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 244

245 217 Compendium KINO INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 3,339 3,64 3,719 4,6 4,419 Gross profit 1,146 1,468 1,454 1,557 1,716 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (59) (85) (7) (7) (7) Forex gain/(losses) (4) (9) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (34) (74) (72) (75) (82) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) 1 () () () () Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables ,2 Inventories Fixed assets 87 1,7 1,213 1,43 1,572 Other assets Total assets 1,863 3,211 3,376 3,556 3,789 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 1,21 1,435 1,423 1,418 1,448 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 661 1,775 1,952 2,137 2,341 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (25) (52) (12) (122) (113) Other operating items (82) (165) (125) (135) (147) Operating cash flow (18) (211) Net capital expenditure (31) (17) (253) (256) (259) Free cash flow (418) (382) (52) (53) (1) Equity raised/(bought) (11) Net borrowings (7) 15 Other financing (82) (79) (85) Net cash flow (19) 622 (74) (139) (72) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

246 217 Compendium KRAKATAU STEEL BUY PX: IDR79 - TP: IDR1,2 As Indonesia s largest steel maker, KRAS should be positively affected by higher steel demand from the government s infrastructure projects and stronger steel prices, amid the Chinese government s announcement of the 15-2mn mt capacity closure target by 22. Completion of its blast furnace complex, which is expected to be operational (first blow-in) by end-216, will reduce HRC production cost by about USD58.3/ton (18% of the 215 HRC production cost). The government s plan to reduce the industrial gas price from USD9/mmbtu to USD5-6/mmbtu could potentially help KRAS reduce its production cost by a further USD12/ton. On valuation, we have a DCF-based TP of IDR1,2 (WACC 1.9%) and BUY rating on improved local demand, KRAS operating efficiency and medium-term steel price recovery prospects. Risks: Lower-thanexpected steel-price recovery and weaker infrastructure demand. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (USDmn) 1,869 1,322 1,466 1,592 1,771 EBIT (USDmn) (18) (184) Net profit (USDmn) (15) (32) (96) (26) 38 Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) (113) (274) (63) (17) 25 EPS growth (%) na na na na na EV/EBITDA (x) (54.4) (2.6) P/E (x) na na na na 31. FCFPS (IDR) (215) (1,364) (243) (213) (119) FCF yield (%) (27.2) (172.7) (3.8) (27.) (15.) BVPS (IDR) 664 1,523 1,186 1,169 1,193 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 1, (') 4, 3, 2, 1, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F HRC price (USD per ton) CRC price (USD per ton) HRC volume (' tons) 1, ,159 1,275 1,338 CRC volume (' tons) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) kras IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M KRAS IJ relative to JCI Mardy Oramahi Alhusnah (mardy@bahana.co.id) ext.3621 *New, please refer to appendix II Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 95/275 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,5/69 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (8.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 15,775/2. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 13,49/986 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 45./3.3 Bloomberg/Reuters code : KRAS IJ/KRAS.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 246

247 217 Compendium KRAKATAU STEEL Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,869 1,322 1,466 1,592 1,771 Gross profit 41 (36) EBITDA (39) (117) Depreciation EBIT (18) (184) Net interest inc./(expense) (46) (83) (1) (115) (124) Forex gain/(losses) 4 52 (11) - - Other income/(expense) (33) (113) (51) (16) 32 Pre-tax profit (183) (327) (117) (32) 49 Taxes (12) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit (15) (32) (96) (26) 38 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 1,97 2,359 2,638 2,812 2,981 Other assets Total assets 2,598 3,72 4,78 4,258 4,512 Interest bearing liabilities 1,34 1,615 1,915 2,9 2,265 Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 1,77 1,914 2,243 2,448 2,663 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 879 1,781 1,824 1,798 1,836 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT (18) (184) Depreciation Working capital (38) (42) Other operating items (75) (158) (84) (134) (114) Operating cash flow 24 (266) Net capital expenditure (38) (1,329) (35) (25) (25) Free cash flow (284) (1,595) (284) (249) (182) Equity raised/(bought) (1) Net borrowings Other financing (2) 1, Net cash flow 47 (14) 159 (73) (6) Cash balances, beginning Ending cash Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) (15.7) (24.1) (5.3) (1.5) 2.1 ROAA (%) (6.) (1.2) (2.8) (.6).9 Gross margin (%) 2.2 (2.8) EBITDA margin (%) (2.1) (8.8) EBIT margin (%) (5.8) (13.9) Net margin (%) (8.) (24.2) (6.6) (1.7) 2.1 Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) (2.3) (2.2) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

248 217 Compendium LINK NET HOLD PX: IDR5,55 - TP: IDR5,3 LINK, Indonesia s 2nd largest cable broadband provider (after Telkom) with 1.79m home passes and 56k subscribers as at 9M16, primarily targets customers in the bigger cities (JKT, SBY, BDG) with higher purchasing power, and generates strong >55% EBITDA margin & c.18% ROE. It is sensitive to USD:IDR movements as 4% of Opex and 6% of Capex are USD-linked vs. 1% revenue in IDR. Talks in 215 of CVC and Lippo divesting their 67% stake in LINK attracted bidders like Indosat, XL and MNC Media. The plan was called off in early 216, but cannot be completely ruled out, in our view. While 1H16 growth slowed on competition from TLKM s Indihome, LINK showed promising recovery in 3Q16 with EBITDA/NPAT up 19%/41% y-y. We have a HOLD rating and DCF (1.5% WACC) derived 12-month TP of IDR5,3. Upside/downside risks: Less/ more competition from Indihome. Share price performance (IDR) 6, 5,5 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) LINK IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M LINK IJ relative to JCI Henry Wibowo (henry.wibowo@bahana.co.id) ext (') 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 2,136 2,564 2,933 3,241 3,515 EBIT (IDRbn) ,76 1,191 1,223 Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) 37 7 (41) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) 997 1,25 1,427 1,665 1,95 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Subscribers Growth (%) ARPU Growth (%) EBITDA Margin (%) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 5,5/2,875 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 7,7/3,7 Majority shareholder (%) : PT First Media Tbk (33.8) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 3,43/32.7 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 16,887/1,2 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 9.6/.7 Bloomberg/Reuters code : LINK.IJ/LINK.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 248

249 217 Compendium LINK NET Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 2,136 2,564 2,933 3,241 3,515 Gross profit 1,662 1,994 2,26 2,487 2,686 EBITDA 1,231 1,45 1,697 1,924 2,67 Depreciation (393) (515) (621) (734) (844) EBIT ,76 1,191 1,223 Net interest inc./(expense) (38) (57) (4) (5) (7) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) (43) (21) Pre-tax profit ,72 1,185 1,216 Taxes (198) (217) (271) (3) (38) Minority interest () () Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 2,694 3,493 4,417 5,89 5,499 Other assets Total assets 3,742 4,438 5,294 6,45 6,799 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities ,2 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 3,35 3,667 4,34 5,66 5,797 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT ,76 1,191 1,223 Depreciation Working capital Other operating items (279) (32) (275) (35) (315) Operating cash flow 1,9 1,22 1,557 1,623 1,757 Net capital expenditure (898) (1,181) (1,544) (1,46) (1,255) Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (95) (81) Other financing Net cash flow (11) (33) (26) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) (5.8) (6.1) (2.5) (3.3) (8.5) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days) 249

250 217 Compendium LIPPO CIKARANG BUY PX: IDR5,3 - TP: IDR8,3 Having the largest residential and commercial portfolio (9M16: 51% of total revenue) among its peers, LPCK should still be able to reach our IDR1.9tn (+1% y-y) pre-sales target in 217 despite the current weak industrial land demand in Cikarang. Despite slow ASP growth in Cikarang, LPCK should benefit from the ground-breaking of the Jakarta-Bandung high-speed railway at the end of 216. Thus, we expect LPCK s industrial and residential land prices to increase by 1-15% y-y in 217, allowing for increased F gross margins of %. At this stage of the cycle, we retain our 12M TP of IDR8,3 using a 66% discount to NAV, reflecting 57% upside potential. Given LPCK s well-diversified businesses as well as zero debt level, LPCK s severe ytd market underperformance should reverse. BUY. Risks: High-speed rail project delays and slower project take-ups causing poor pre-sales. Share price performance (IDR) 8, 7, 6, 5, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) LPCK IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (') 7, (1) (1.2) (2) (19.7) (25.8) (3) (32.2) (4) (4.4) (46.8) (5) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M LPCK IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 1,83 2,121 1,647 1,855 2,17 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) 1,215 1,38 1,32 1,185 1,38 EPS growth (%) (21.1) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (576) (248) (181) FCF yield (%) (1.9) (4.7) (3.4) BVPS (IDR) 3,848 5,22 6,173 7,36 8,67 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price NAV calculation NAV Table 217F Land bank (Ha) 675 Discount (%) 66 Adjusted NAV (IDRbn) 5,775 Adjusted NAV/share (IDR) 8,298 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 8,1/5,75 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,/8,3 Majority shareholder (%) : Kemuning Satiatama (42.2) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 696/57.8 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 3,689/274 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 4.8/.4 Bloomberg/Reuters code : LPCK IJ/LPCK.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 25

251 217 Compendium LIPPO CIKARANG Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,83 2,121 1,647 1,855 2,17 Gross profit 1,6 1, ,32 1,136 EBITDA 93 1, Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) - - (2) - - Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit 944 1, ,22 Taxes (98) (11) (99) (12) (111) Minority interest - (4) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories 2,98 2,765 2,765 2,986 3,135 Fixed assets Other assets 1,63 1,915 2,379 2,848 3,455 Total assets 4,39 5,477 5,766 6,519 7,311 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities 1,663 1,743 1,469 1,396 1,276 Total liabilities 1,712 1,844 1,469 1,396 1,276 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,678 3,633 4,297 5,123 6,35 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (392) (177) (147) (46) (34) Other operating items (599) (463) (483) (235) (318) Operating cash flow (61) Net capital expenditure (34) (93) (85) (374) (428) Free cash flow (41) (172) (126) Equity raised/(bought) 8 48 (56) - - Net borrowings - 3 (3) - - Other financing 384 (143) () Net cash flow (9) 27 (61) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

252 217 Compendium LIPPO KARAWACI HOLD PX: IDR85 - TP: IDR8* Unlike other property companies, LPKR should benefit from high recurring income (9M16: 51% to revenue) helped by contributions from the biggest private hospital chain it owns. However, a higher recurring income contribution means lower margins for LPKR. Thus, we forecast lower gross margins of c.43% (215: 46.2%). On marketing sales, we maintain our F numbers at IDR tn as we believe LPKR will postpone its IDR1.7tn asset sale to REITs this year. Our 216 target is strengthened by LPKR s poor 9M16 pre-sales achievement of IDR754bn, only 22% of management s IDR3.5tn revised full-year target due to a lack of project launches. As we revisit our numbers on several project delays, we lower our TP to IDR8 from IDR1,1 on a 6% discount to 217F NAV. Retain HOLD on solid hospital business growth and possible one-off REIT sales. Upside risk: Stronger IDR; Downside risk: More project delays. Share price performance (IDR) 1,4 1,3 1,2 1,1 1, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 (36.2) (7.5) Volume (RHS) (26.9) (23.9) LPKR IJ Px Last (32.5) (') 35, (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, (6) (51.) (6) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M LPKR IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 11,655 8,91 9,497 1,16 1,16 EBIT (IDRbn) 3,278 1,727 1,547 1,681 1,724 Net profit (IDRbn) 2, Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 17.5 (79.) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) 4 (179) FCF yield (%).5 (22.2) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on on 23 November 216 closing price NAV Calculation 217F Land bank (Ha) 675 Total value (IDRbn) 61,917 NAV/share (IDR) 2,9 Discount (%) 6 Adjusted NAV/share (IDR) 8 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,38/775 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,46/9 Majority shareholder (%) : Pacific Asia Holding (17.9) Share outstanding (m)/free float (%) : 23,78/94.7 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 18,578/1,373 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 77./5.7 Bloomberg/Reuters code : LPKR IJ/LPKR.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 252

253 217 Compendium LIPPO KARAWACI Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 11,655 8,91 9,497 1,16 1,16 Gross profit 5,397 4,119 4,98 4,334 4,493 EBITDA 3,667 2,196 1,814 1,991 2,56 Depreciation EBIT 3,278 1,727 1,547 1,681 1,724 Net interest inc./(expense) (122) (177) (329) (29) (234) Forex gain/(losses) 182 (155) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit 3,696 1,491 1,346 1,453 1,557 Taxes (56) (467) (389) (416) (427) Minority interest (588) (489) (21) (237) (258) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 2, Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 3,529 1,839 2,889 2,68 2,699 S-T investments 8,111 8,797 9,61 9,333 9,613 Trade receivables 951 1,434 1,249 1,317 1,336 Inventories 16,553 2,459 2,514 2,764 21,264 Fixed assets 3,29 2,732 2,37 2,278 2,256 Other assets 5,48 6,65 6,577 8,445 9,954 Total assets 37,761 41,327 42,597 44,745 47,122 Interest bearing liabilities 9,997 12,365 12,833 12,592 12,192 Trade payables Other liabilities 9,723 9,262 1,242 11,916 13,944 Total liabilities 2,115 22,41 23,84 25,315 26,954 Minority interest 2,41 2,523 1,688 1,749 1,815 Shareholders' equity 15,65 16,394 17,69 17,681 18,353 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 3,278 1,727 1,547 1,681 1,724 Depreciation Working capital 788 (929) Other operating items (4,52) (5,6) 294 (357) 54 Operating cash flow 43 (3,793) 2,318 1,653 2,61 Net capital expenditure (315) (332) (327) (94) (1,111) Free cash flow 88 (4,124) 1, ,49 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 2,19 2, (241) (41) Other financing (62) 66 (1,49) (79) (998) Net cash flow 1,676 (1,69) 1,5 (281) 91 Cash flow at beginning 1,855 3,529 1,839 2,889 2,68 Ending cash flow 3,529 1,839 2,889 2,68 2,699 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

254 217 Compendium LONDON SUMATRA INDONESIA BUY PX: IDR1,68 - TP: IDR2,85 LSIP, the sector s third-largest CPO company in terms of planted area with 114k ha (83% oil palm, 14% rubber, 3% other), should be the main beneficiary of a CPO price recovery due to its pure upstream status, with around 9% of sales from palm products. In 217, we forecast an ASP of USD666/ton, +11.6% y-y, and CPO sales volume of 415k tons, +12.8% y-y, helped by higher FFB yields of 14 tons/ha and an oil extraction rate of 23%. LSIP s plantation estates also feature a favorable average productive age profile of 14.4 years. As we expect 217 earnings to increase to IDR849bn, +95% y-y, LSIP is our second most preferred stock within the sector (after AALI) with a 12M TP of IDR2,85, based on a 217F PE of c.17x, implying around a 3% discount to its Malaysian peers. Thus, we reiterate our BUY call on 24% upside potential to our TP. Risks to our call include lower-thanexpected CPO prices and production. Share price performance (IDR) 1,9 1,7 1,5 1,3 1,1 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) LSIP IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 3.3 LSIP IJ relative to JCI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 4,727 4,19 3,711 4,521 4,991 EBIT (IDRbn) 1, ,8 1,224 Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 16.9 (25.4) (36.7) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) 22 (45) FCF yield (%) 1.3 (2.7) BVPS (IDR) 1,26 1,74 1,98 1,197 1,29 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F FFB production nucleus (k tons) 1,341 1,397 1,66 1,23 1,333 Growth (%) (23.7) CPO production (k tons) Growth (%) (22.7) CPO price (USD/ton) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,84/1,2 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,778/1,568 Majority shareholder (%) : Salim Ivomas Pratama (59.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 6,822/4.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 11,33/84 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 34.1/2.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : LSIP IJ/LSIP.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 254

255 217 Compendium LONDON SUMATRA INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 4,727 4,19 3,711 4,521 4,991 Gross profit 1,536 1,116 1,74 1,574 1,735 EBITDA 1, ,359 1,523 Depreciation EBIT 1, ,8 1,224 Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) (67) 11 (7) - - Pre-tax profit 1, ,116 1,278 Taxes (293) (25) (137) (267) (36) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1, ,195 S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 5,964 6,317 6,933 7,237 7,323 Other assets 992 1,374 1,167 1,41 1,551 Total assets 8,713 8,849 9,113 9,941 1,667 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities 1,427 1,34 1,243 1,315 1,362 Total liabilities 1,71 1,511 1,614 1,768 1,861 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 7,3 7,331 7,492 8,166 8,799 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1, ,8 1,224 Depreciation Working capital 37 (29) Other operating items (279) (141) (173) (232) (252) Operating cash flow 1, ,18 1,271 Net capital expenditure (995) (945) (728) (814) (519) Free cash flow 153 (37) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings Other financing (32) (378) (247) (146) (31) Net cash flow 121 (685) (25) Cash flow at beginning 1,41 1, Ending cash flow 1, ,195 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na na Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

256 217 Compendium MALINDO FEED-MILL BUY PX: IDR1,31 - TP: IDR2, MAIN, the third-largest listed poultry player and the fastest growing company in the sector, is likely to enjoy high DOC and broiler prices ahead. Its fastest-growing segments are broiler chickens (9%) and processed foods (1%). The other 2 segments are poultry feed (6M16: 64% of revenues) and day-old chicks (DOC) (18%). Following the government s MoU with the associations, MAIN will focus more on expanding its slaughterhouses and increasing its processed foods contribution in the eastern part of Indonesia i.e. Sulawesi and East Nusa Tenggara (NTT). On valuation, MAIN s 9.8x 217F PER, at more than a 42% discount to the industry s leader CPIN, is unjustified given its solid corporate governance. Our unchanged IDR2, TP reflects a 216F PE of 15x, around a 1% discount to CPIN s target PE to account for MAIN s smaller market cap. Risk: High domestic corn prices. Share price performance (IDR) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) MAIN IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) (7.8) (16.3) (8.8) (3.8) (27.6) (25.6) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M MAIN IJ relative to JCI Michael W. Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) ext. 362 (') 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 4,52 4,775 5,282 5,858 6,23 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) (85) (63) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) (48) (33) EPS growth (%) (133.7) (3.5) (485.7) 5.5 (23.) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) (27.3) (39.3) FCFPS (IDR) (583) (216) (72) (52) (18) FCF yield (%) (44.5) (16.5) (5.5) (4.) (8.3) BVPS (IDR) ,22 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Feed ASP (IDR/kg) 6,6 6,65 6,37 6,686 6,886 Feed Volume (Mton) 534, 535, 526, ,515 55,952 DOC ASP (IDR/chick) 3,899 4,597 5,69 5,889 5,653 DOC Volume (k birds) 181,516 23,8 21, ,88 246,32 Broiler ASP (IDR/kg) 21,813 2,792 22,248 23,36 22,426 Broiler Volume (ton) 23,35 25,6 31,232 34,98 39,177 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,8/1,175 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,555/1,4 Majority shareholder (%) : Dragon Amity Ltd. (57.1) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 2,239/42.9 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 2,91/218 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 1.6/.1 Bloomberg/Reuters code : MAIN IJ/MAIN.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 256

257 217 Compendium MALINDO FEED-MILL Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 4,52 4,775 5,282 5,858 6,23 Gross profit ,5 941 EBITDA Depreciation (126) (159) (184) (212) (246) EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (91) (167) (186) (17) (174) Forex gain/(losses) (38) (112) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit (18) (72) Taxes (24) (1) Minority interest (1) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit (85) (63) Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 1,577 1,822 2,88 2,426 2,78 Other assets Total assets 3,53 3,962 4,367 4,771 5,39 Interest bearing liabilities 1,888 1,981 2,122 2,191 2,231 Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 2,45 2,413 2,531 2,674 2,754 Minority interest (3) (1) (2) (2) (2) Shareholders' equity 1,83 1,55 1,838 2,99 2,287 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (474) (84) (163) (65) (18) Other operating items (123) (283) (282) (288) (267) Operating cash flow (546) (129) Net capital expenditure (484) (278) (291) (366) (388) Free cash flow (1,31) (47) (161) (116) (243) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings Other financing (33) (4) (43) (46) Net cash flow (2) (91) (248) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) (8.7) (4.8) ROAA (%) (3.) (1.7) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) (1.9) (1.3) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

258 217 Compendium MATAHARI DEPARTMENT STORE BUY PX: IDR14,575 - TP: IDR19,1* LPPF, the largest department store with large exposure to the middleincome segment, has slowed its expansion in 216 to 6 new store openings due to the economic slowdown. On a more positive note, LPPF was still able to book one of the strongest SSSG in the sector at 7-8%, which we expect to return to double-digits going forward. We believe concerns on online competition (1.2% of total retail sales) are overdone given lower A&P spending from e-commerce players that caused weakness in LPPF s top line. On the cost front, we expect margin support from continued higher private label sales contribution. Given the recent slowdown in SSSG and possible cash drain due to online investments, we lower our 12-month target price from IDR21,8 to IDR19,1, reflecting a 217F PER of 22.5x, a 1% discount to its 5-year historical trading average. Risk to our call: unexpectedly stronger e-commerce boom. Share price performance Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 7,926 9,7 1,196 11,994 13,4 EBIT (IDRbn) 2,111 2,33 2,568 3,17 3,561 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,419 1,781 2,46 2,477 2,865 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) , FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) ,11 1,399 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F SSSG (%) Number of outlets (stores) Total store area (k sqm) ,29 1,81 Richard Haditya Danusaputra (richard@bahana.co.id) ext.365 *New, please refer to appendix II Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 22,575/13,325 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 24,3/16,3 Majority shareholder (%) : PT Multipolar Tbk (17.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 2,918/82.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 42,529/3,154 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 116.4/8.6 Bloomberg/Reuters code : LPPF IJ/LPPF.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 258

259 217 Compendium MATAHARI DEPARTMENT STORE Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 7,926 9,7 1,196 11,994 13,4 Gross profit 5,48 5,671 6,33 7,45 8,385 EBITDA 2,339 2,57 2,86 3,451 3,964 Depreciation EBIT 2,111 2,33 2,568 3,17 3,561 Net interest inc./(expense) (233) (93) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) (27) Pre-tax profit 1,851 2,245 2,579 3,122 3,582 Taxes (431) (464) (533) (645) (716) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 1,419 1,781 2,46 2,477 2,865 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents ,557 2,57 3,661 S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories 955 1,8 1,59 1,245 1,374 Fixed assets ,46 1,93 Other assets 91 1,19 1,232 1,459 1,543 Total assets 3,413 3,889 4,847 6,31 7,718 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables 1,411 1,552 1,695 1,967 2,144 Other liabilities 1,154 1,232 1,247 1,383 1,492 Total liabilities 3,254 2,783 2,942 3,351 3,636 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 159 1,16 1,95 2,95 4,82 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 2,111 2,33 2,568 3,17 3,561 Depreciation Working capital (77) Other operating items (637) (469) (573) (588) (695) Operating cash flow 1,625 2,227 2,399 2,968 3,368 Net capital expenditure (232) (393) (375) (43) (45) Free cash flow 1,392 1,834 2,24 2,538 2,917 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (97) (689) Others (472) (984) (1,413) (1,588) (1,763) Net cash flow ,154 Cash flow at beginning ,557 2,57 Ending cash flow ,557 2,57 3,661 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

260 217 Compendium MATAHARI PUTRA PRIMA BUY PX: IDR1,75 - TP: IDR2,25 MPPA, Indonesia s fastest growing multi-format retailer, is bringing down its number of SKUs from 14k to 4k, paving the way for greater economies of scale and higher pricing power against its suppliers. While still at a nascent stage, purchasing power recovery appears to have materialized in the low-income segment, with an increasing basket size to the benefit of MPPA. Furthermore, the company is embarking on a new pricing strategy, targeting just 3 SKUs instead of 2, items, to regain market share from minimarkets. On valuation, we retain our IDR2,25 TP, based on an unchanged.74x 217F P/S (a 1% discount to MPPA s 5-year historical trading P/S). Risks include a possible Temasek exit in 218 and potential structural risk as consumers shift towards the minimarket format in the near future. Share price performance Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 13,59 13,929 14,415 16,24 18,175 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 24.5 (67.) (36.8) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) 127 (144) (16) 2 (41) FCF yield (%) 7.4 (8.4) (.9).1 (2.4) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Total store opening (units) Average selling area (k sqm) SSSG (%) 5.4 (1.9) (2.8) Richard Danusaputra (richard@bahana.co.id) ext.365 Michael W.Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) ext.362 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,13/1,185 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 4,8/3,1 Majority shareholder (%) : PT Multipolar (5.2) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 5,378/4. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 9,169/68 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 5.9/.4 Bloomberg/Reuters code : MPPA IJ/MPPA.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 26

261 217 Compendium MATAHARI PUTRA PRIMA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 13,59 13,929 14,415 16,24 18,175 Gross profit 2,354 2,356 2,436 2,899 3,252 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) 19 (36) (65) (51) (57) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) 65 (14) Pre-tax profit Taxes (177) (5) (32) (6) (69) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories 2,655 2,759 2,79 2,989 3,271 Fixed assets 1,273 1,462 1,628 1,795 1,82 Other assets 1,127 1,639 1,389 1,472 1,83 Total assets 5,834 6,294 6,26 6,54 6,453 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables 1,893 1,763 1,772 1,968 2,28 Other liabilities 1,112 1, Total liabilities 3,6 3,519 3,361 3,527 3,325 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,828 2,775 2,845 2,977 3,128 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (283) (691) (4) (134) (143) Other operating items 57 (138) (91) (22) (283) Operating cash flow 1,133 (24) Net capital expenditure (452) (533) (527) (593) (665) Free cash flow 681 (773) (85) 9 (218) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (188) 65 (5) - (45) Other financing (1,48) (216) 98 (163) 713 Net cash flow (555) (339) (37) (154) 45 Cash flow at beginning 1, Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) nc Net gearing (%) nc nc Creditor turnover (days) Debtor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

262 217 Compendium MAYORA INDAH BUY PX: IDR1,535 - *TP: IDR2,5 MYOR, Indonesia s largest confectionery manufacturer, aims to grow 217 revenue by c.15%, primarily on volume growth. We believe this to be a reasonable target. To support volume growth, MYOR has guided for higher capex, as utilization rates at both its food and coffee segments are already running at around 8%. Looking ahead, we expect sustained growth from MYOR s ability to not only promote its product locally (5% of revenues), but also overseas (5%) with a high success rate of new product launches at above 65% (industry: c.2%) while maintaining A&P below 11-12% of sales. Going into 217, we maintain our BUY rating on sustained volume growth and margins as well as continued deleveraging from strong free cash flow generation. Our TP of IDR2,5, based on a 217F PER of 36x, reflects a 25% discount to UNVR s valuation. Risks to our call include higher raw material prices and rising competition. Share price performance (IDR) 1,7 1,5 1,3 1, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) MYOR IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (13.9) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M MYOR IJ relative to JCI Renaldy Effendy (renaldy@bahana.co.id) ext. 366 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (1) (2) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 14,169 14,819 17,559 2,869 24,877 EBIT (IDRbn) 891 1,863 2,45 2,394 2,828 Net profit (IDRbn) 43 1,22 1,248 1,535 1,832 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (61.3) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Confectionaries price growth (%) Coffee price growth (%) A&P to sales (%) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,8/1,2 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,2/1,528 Majority shareholder (%) : Unita Branindo (32.9) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 22,359/66.9 Mkt. cap. (IDRb/USDmn) : 34,321/2,545 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 1.3/.1 Bloomberg/Reuters code : MYOR IJ/MYOR.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 262

263 217 Compendium MAYORA INDAH Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 14,169 14,819 17,559 2,869 24,877 Gross profit 2,535 4,198 4,723 5,61 6,663 EBITDA 1,29 2,327 2,259 2,62 3,63 Depreciation EBIT 891 1,863 2,45 2,394 2,828 Net interest inc./(expense) (326) (362) (29) (317) (352) Forex gain/(losses) (19) 152 (65) - - Other income/(expense) (17) (12) (12) (12) (12) Pre-tax profit 529 1,64 1,677 2,64 2,464 Taxes (12) (39) (399) (491) (586) Minority interest (6) (3) (31) (38) (45) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 43 1,22 1,248 1,535 1,832 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 713 1,682 1,488 1,94 2,246 S-T investments Trade receivables 3,46 3,368 3,951 4,649 5,487 Inventories 1,967 1,763 2,11 2,484 2,934 Fixed assets 3,585 3,771 4,57 4,531 5,146 Other assets ,141 1,477 Total assets 1,298 11,343 12,544 14,71 17,29 Interest bearing liabilities 4,63 3,88 3,754 4,144 4,614 Trade payables 823 1,23 1,236 1,47 1,754 Other liabilities 796 1,317 1,339 1,623 1,95 Total liabilities 6,221 6,148 6,329 7,238 8,318 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 3,984 5,77 6,75 7,34 8,769 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 891 1,863 2,45 2,394 2,828 Depreciation Working capital ,2 Other operating items (487) (643) (797) (859) (996) Operating cash flow 1,25 2,185 1,975 2,614 3,87 Net capital expenditure (87) (65) (5) (7) (85) Free cash flow 38 1,535 1,475 1,914 2,237 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 73 (795) (54) Other financing (2,52) 377 (1,365) (1,582) (1,998) Net cash flow (1,148) 969 (194) Cash flow at beginning 1, ,682 1,488 1,94 Ending cash flow 713 1,682 1,488 1,94 2,246 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

264 217 Compendium MEDCO ENERGI BUY PX: IDR1,36 - TP: IDR1,54* With some recent recovery in oil prices, MEDC, the largest listed upstream oil company, looks on track to book 216F net profit of USD31mn (from a loss in 215), in line with our view that the worst is over for the industry. Furthermore, given our expectation of a better balanced oil market in 2H17 and 218F, MEDC s earnings should gradually improve. We also believe Medco s recent acquisition of Newmont Nusa Tenggara (not in our forecast yet; still awaiting details from the management) will be the game changer as higher gold prices in 217F, coupled with a lower global oil production rate in 218F, should increase Medco s revenue by more than 28% y-y in 217F and 54% y-y in 218F. We maintain our BUY rating on MEDC with a new TP of IDR1,54 as we believe a better future awaits Medco in F. Our new TP is derived from DCF valuation, with WACC of 7.3% and LTG of.1%. Risks: OPEC failing to limit production. Share price performance (IDR) 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 1, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) MEDC IJ Px Last (%) (%) (2) (4) (17.4) (18.6) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M MEDC IJ relative to JCI Andrew Franklin Hotama (andrew.franklin@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II (') 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, (2) (4) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (USDm) ,121 EBIT (USDm) Net profit (USDm) 5 (188) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) 19 (762) EPS growth (%) (54.2) (4,18.7) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) 72.8 (1.8) FCFPS (IDR) (189) 53 (45) 69 1,49 FCF yield (%) (13.9) 37. (3.3) BVPS (IDR) 3,127 2,82 3,39 3,144 3,314 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) 7 (35) Div. yield (%).5 (22.4) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ASP oil (USD/barrell) Growth (%) (9.6) (49.6) (11.1) \ ASP gas (USD/mmbtu) Growth (%) 8.6 (3.5) Production per day (MBOED) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,95/67 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,/1,3 Majority shareholder (%) : Encore Energy (5.7) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 3,332/49. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 4,532/333 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 6.8/.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : MEDC IJ/MEDC.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 264

265 217 Compendium MEDCO ENERGI Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales ,121 Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (61) (71) (73) (89) (78) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) 11 (165) (14) (15) (16) Pre-tax profit 16 (146) Taxes (98) (34) (1) (54) (296) Minority interest (4) (2) 1 5 Extraordinary gain/(losses) 1 (6) Net profit 5 (188) Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets Other assets 1,96 2,1 2,324 2,337 2,367 Total assets 2,668 2,91 2,633 2,691 2,827 Interest bearing liabilities 1,186 1,58 1,3 1,325 1,4 Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 1,781 2,28 1,878 1,911 2,5 Minority interest Shareholders' equity Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (149) (24) (58) Other operating items (37) (23) (3) (37) (81) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (285) (21) (16) (134) (136) Free cash flow (53) 124 (11) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (28) Other financing (23) (218) (66) (169) (399) Net cash flow (63) 256 (358) 6 23 Cash balances, beginning Ending cash Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%).6 (23.9) ROAA (%).2 (6.7) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%).7 (29.9) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

266 217 Compendium MEDIA NUSANTARA CITRA BUY PX: IDR1,735 - TP: IDR2,2 MNCN, Indonesia s leading media company (c.45% prime time market share), is enjoying a strong TV ratings surge ytd, driven by RCTI s succesful hit drama series, but investors are puzzled by the lack of monetization as EBIT growth is not reflective of the strong ratings. We expect a better translation of ratings towards adex revenue in 217. As Hary Tanoe was recently replaced with David Audy as CEO, management can have more focus on execution with 1% of its time dedicated to business vs. politics, although the political affiliation risk will continue to be there but to a lesser degree, in our view. All in all, MNCN remains the cheapest media and consumer-driven Indonesian stock, trading at a 217F PE of 12.8x, 5% discount to the sector. Following its massive share price correction, we currently have a BUY on MNCN and a 12M TP of IDR2,2, based on a 217F PE of 16x. Risks: Online ads and unhedged USD25mn debt. Share price performance (IDR) 2,5 2,25 2, 1,75 1,5 1,25 1, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) MNCN IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (19.9) (14.1) (.4) (32.8) (7.2) (13.3) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M MNCN IJ relative to JCI Henry Wibowo (henry.wibowo@bahana.co.id) ext.3622 (') 15, 1, 5, (1) (2) (3) (4) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 6,666 6,445 7,13 7,636 8,41 EBIT (IDRbn) 2,64 2,194 2,524 2,787 3,19 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,762 1,186 1,76 1,913 2,155 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (83) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Ad Revenue Growth (%) 9.3 (3.3) COGS Growth (%) (1.3) EBITDA Margin (%) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,45/1,19 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 3,13/1,95 Majority shareholder (%) : Global Mediacom (58.3) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 14,276/41.7 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 23,555/1,738 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 22./1.6 Bloomberg/Reuters code : MNCN IJ/MNCN.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 266

267 217 Compendium MEDIA NUSANTARA CITRA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 6,666 6,445 7,13 7,636 8,41 Gross profit 3,853 3,584 3,966 4,345 4,822 EBITDA 2,779 2,379 2,722 3,1 3,343 Depreciation EBIT 2,64 2,194 2,524 2,787 3,19 Net interest inc./(expense) 28 (133) (122) (14) (78) Forex gain/(losses) (77) (315) Other income/(expense) (11) (65) Pre-tax profit 2,544 1,681 2,41 2,683 3,31 Taxes (66) (44) (6) (671) (758) Minority interest (121) (91) (95) (99) (118) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 1,762 1,186 1,76 1,913 2,155 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1, ,64 2,731 S-T investments 1,887 1, Trade receivables 2,994 3,2 3,287 3,578 3,941 Inventories 1,635 1,593 1,697 1,833 1,998 Fixed assets 2,659 4,145 4,745 5,45 5,345 Other assets 3,32 4,19 4,8 4,1 3,534 Total assets 13,69 14,475 14,86 17,521 18,45 Interest bearing liabilities 3,182 3,757 3,596 3,546 3,96 Trade payables Other liabilities 789 1,11 1,5 1,12 1,164 Total liabilities 4,216 4,98 4,786 4,788 4,4 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 8,97 8,966 9,378 11,938 13,137 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 2,64 2,194 2,524 2,787 3,19 Depreciation Working capital (1,965) 318 (193) (468) (579) Other operating items (889) (1,79) (921) (989) (1,7) Operating cash flow (74) 1,617 1,68 1,544 1,694 Net capital expenditure (1,117) (1,486) (6) (3) (3) Free cash flow (1,191) 131 1,8 1,244 1,394 (1 191) Equity raised/(bought) 256 (266) (68) 1,5 - Net borrowings 2, (119) (5) (45) Other financing (1,65) (1,179) (358) (853) (276) Net cash flow 448 (76) (149) 1, Cash flow at beginning 684 1, ,64 Ending cash flow 1, ,64 2,731 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

268 217 Compendium MERDEKA COPPER GOLD BUY PX: IDR2,2 TP: IDR2,34* Being Indonesia s second largest gold company with total proven gold reserves of 898k oz and 19bn lbs of copper resources, MDKA s annual 97,5 oz gold production has come at a good time as prices bottom out, while volumes are driven by solid demand out of China and India. Using the heap-leach method that requires low CAPEX (USD131mn), MDKA focuses on producing gold for the first 9 years of production before switching to underground copper & gold thereafter. We forecast MDKA to book net earnings of USD25mn in 217 and earnings growth of 49% y-y in 218, mostly due to our assumption of higher gold prices. On valuation, we use P/E methodology with premium of around 2% to MDKA s regional peers, given its status as one among the few companies with significant copper and gold reserves. We maintain our BUY rating on MDKA with a new TP of 2,34, based on 217F PE of 24x. Risk to our call includes higher-than-expected Fed rate hikes. Share price performance (IDR) 2,3 2,1 1,9 1,7 1,5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 (') Volume (RHS) MDKA IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) (1) (15) (5) (5.7) (1) (9.4) (13.2) (13.) (15) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M MDKA IJ relative to JCI Andrew Hotama (andrew.franklin@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (USDmn) EBIT (USDmn) - (5) (5) 48 7 Net profit (USDmn) - (5) (3) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) - (2) (13) EPS growth (%) - (18.1) EV/EBITDA (x) - na P/E (x) - na na FCFPS (IDR) - (195) (38) FCF yield (%) - (9.6) (15.3) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Gold sales volume (oz) ,5 97,5 Gold ASP (USD/oz) ,1 1,325 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,23/1,625 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : na/na Majority shareholder (%) : PT Mitra Daya Mustika (16.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 3,57 /17. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 7,211/53 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrmn/usdthousands) : 19.1/1.4 Bloomberg/Reuters code : MDKA IJ/MDKA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 268

269 217 Compendium MERDEKA COPPER GOLD Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales Gross profit EBITDA - (5) Depreciation EBIT - (5) (5) 48 7 Net interest inc./(expense) - (1) (1) (1) () Forex gain/(losses) - (2) Other income/(expense) - () () () () Pre-tax profit - (9) (7) 47 7 Taxes (19) (28) Minority interest - (3) (4) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit - (5) (3) Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT - (5) (5) 48 7 Depreciation Working capital - (9) 13 (18) () Other operating items - (4) 15 (23) (38) Operating cash flow - (18) Net capital expenditure - (34) (122) (9) (9) Free cash flow - (52) (82) Equity raised/(bought) - 1 () - - Net borrowings - (79) 75 (5) (21) Other financing (7) (11) Net cash flow - 15 (6) 3 9 Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets Other assets Total assets Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Shareholders' equity Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) - (5.8) (2.1) ROAA (%) - (3.4) (1.5) EBITDA margin (%) - na na EBIT margin (%) - na na Net margin (%) - na na Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) - na na Net gearing (%) - na Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) - na na Creditor turnover (days) - na na 4 4 Inventory turnover (days) - na na

270 217 Compendium MITRA ADIPERKASA BUY PX: IDR4,89 - TP: IDR6,6* Indonesia s largest lifestyle retailer with over 2, retail stores and 15 brands under its portfolio, MAPI has seen higher margins in 216 due to an improved inventory system and the divestment of nonperforming brands. MAPI is currently in its final stage of restructuring its department stores with expected lower inventory turnover. In 217, MAPI plans to focus more on opening F&B stores, especially Starbucks, in tier-2 cities, capturing improved purchasing power across Indonesia. Also, the company has just expanded to Vietnam and plans to open more Zara outlets due to promising results. On valuation, we set our TP at IDR6,6 on MAPI s expected sustained long-term growth backed by well-known brands like Inditex and Starbucks, which cater to Indonesia s growing middle-income segment. Risks: Weaker IDR given high import content and softer demand causing inventory issues to resurface. Share price performance Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 11,822 12,833 15,51 17,615 19,766 EBIT (IDRbn) ,121 Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (75.9) (52.7) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (323 ( ) ) FCF yield (%) (6.6) (5.6) BVPS (IDR) 1,526 1,792 1,561 1,674 1,85 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) 11,822 12,833 15,51 17,615 19,766 note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales growth (%) Total store space (k sqm) SSSG (%) Richard Danusaputra (richard@bahana.co.id) ext. 365 *New, please refer to appendix II Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 5,9/3,5 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 7,2/3,27 Majority shareholder (%) : PT Satya Mulia Gema Gemil (56.) Share outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,66/44. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 8,117/62 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 7.2/.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : MAPI IJ/MAPI.JK, Reuters; based 23 November 216 closing price 27

271 217 Compendium MITRA ADIPERKASA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 11,822 12,833 15,51 17,615 19,766 Gross profit 5,47 5,783 7,131 8,111 9,132 EBITDA 1,79 1,11 1,369 1,631 1,792 Depreciation EBIT ,121 Net interest inc./(expense) (376) (388) (384) (39) (184) Forex gain/(losses) 15 (32) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes Minority interest () (7) Extraordinary gain/(losses) - - (17) (17) (17) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents ,357 1,762 1,827 S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories 3,23 3,356 3,555 3,983 4,37 Fixed assets 2,548 2,438 2,627 2,69 2,719 Other assets 2,77 2,847 8,246 9,61 1,628 Total assets 8,71 9,483 1,873 12,299 13,347 Interest bearing liabilities 3,426 3,656 4,755 5,441 5,72 Trade payables 1,154 1,156 2,225 2,64 2,913 Other liabilities 1,589 1,697 1,32 1,476 1,644 Total liabilities 6,168 6,58 8,282 9,521 1,277 Minority interest () Shareholders' equity 2,533 2,968 2,592 2,779 3,7 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net income Depreciation Working capital (446) (184) 19 (137) (165) Other operating items (131) (42) Operating cash flow (51) (169) 971 1,576 1,323 Net capital expenditure (486) (287) (7) (7) (7) Free cash flow (537) (456) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings ,93 (212) (19) Other financing 3 77 (511) (259) (368) Net cash flow 145 (9) Cash flow at beginning ,357 1,762 Ending cash flow ,357 1,762 1,827 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

272 217 Compendium MITRA KELUARGA KARYASEHAT HOLD PX: IDR2,71 - TP: IDR2,55 MIKA is undergoing expansion delays on new hospitals, likely until 1Q18. Given its already high occupancy rate in 216, we see limited patient volume growth in 217 in line with the limited new operational beds. Separately, its 3 hospitals have become CoBineligible based on the new CoB regulation. Organically, MIKA aims to open 6 new hospitals with 2-bed capacity in major cities and an additional 25 beds in its existing hospitals by 219. MIKA is also planning to acquire existing small hospitals to be categorized as second-tier BPJS-hospitals. This expansion we conservatively assume to occur by 219. Our IDR2,55 DCF-based TP reflects terminal growth of 5% and a WACC of 9.4%. We believe MIKA s higher margins are well supported with a 217F EV/EBITDA of 41.8x, reflecting 17% premium to SILO s valuation. Risk: Higher/lower occupancy rates. Share price performance (IDR) 3, 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) MIKA IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (.6) (1.3) 3.1 (5.6) (1.1) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M MIKA IJ relative to JCI Renaldy Effendy (renaldy@bahana.co.id) ext. 366 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1 (1) (2) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 1,946 2,141 2,468 2,724 3,162 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Beds occupancy rate (%) Inpatient volume growth (%).6 (1.3) Outpatient volume growth (%) 3.1 (.5) No. of beds in operation 1,647 1,725 1,825 1,98 2,18 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,98/2,1 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 3,32/1,82 Majority shareholder (%) : Lion Investments Partner (49.7) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 14,551/18. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 39,432/2,925 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 15.1/1.1 Bloomberg/Reuters code : MIKA IJ/MIKA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 272

273 217 Compendium MITRA KELUARGA KARYASEHAT Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,946 2,141 2,468 2,724 3,162 Gross profit ,16 1,285 1,484 EBITDA ,43 Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit ,113 Taxes (133) (151) (185) (197) (212) Minority interest (17) (22) (28) (3) (3) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 97 2,387 2,378 2,326 2,284 S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets ,94 1,352 1,629 Other assets Total assets 2,169 3,72 3,994 4,278 4,623 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Shareholders' equity 1,78 3,196 3,42 3,63 3,891 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital 58 (14) (3) (16) (15) Other operating items (5) (27) Operating cash flow ,1 Net capital expenditure (243) (199) (3) (357) (375) Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought) (3) 1,212 () () () Net borrowings (5) Other financing (513) (275) (521) (578) (667) Net cash flow (138) 1,417 (9) (52) (42) Cash flow at beginning 1, ,387 2,378 2,326 Ending cash flow 97 2,387 2,378 2,326 2,284 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na na Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

274 217 Compendium MNC SKY VISION REDUCE PX: IDR1,4- TP: IDR7 MSKY, Indonesia s largest satellite-based Pay TV operator with >6% market share (c.2.5m subs) as at 9M16, is seeing ARPU trending down to c.idr1k/month vs. IDR13k/month 3-4 years ago. It operates under 3 brands: Indovision, Oke Vision and Top TV. Group CEO Hary Tanoe has publicly disclosed his intention to privatise MSKY and to merge it with sister co. Playmedia (Cable broadband); under a new entity Sky Vision Network (SVN). Among its peers, MSKY has the best local content (leveraging on MNCN s large content library). Nonetheless, its satelitte based service is a disadvantage as it can not offer broadband bundle packs like their competitors. Further, competition among the satellite-based players are intense with aggresive discounts being offered by new players like Big TV & Orange TV. We have a DCF-based 12M TP of IDR7 (11.8% WACC) on MSKY and REDUCE call. Key risk: Stronger IDR. Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 3,279 3,235 3,273 3,51 3,814 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) (155) (776) (32) Bahana/consensus (%) na na na na na EPS (IDR) (22) (11) (4) 3 17 EPS growth (%) (68) 42 (96) na 43 EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) (48.4) (9.6) (232.3) FCFPS (IDR) (9) (136) (5) (42) (45) FCF yield (%) (8.7) (13.1) (.5) (4.) (4.3) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 1,55 1,3 1, (') 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Subscribers Growth (%) 1. (3.8) ARPU Growth (%) (9.9) (2.) EBITDA Margin (%) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) MSKY IJ Px Last (%) (%) (2) (2) (23.2) (2.) (2.7) (4) (4) (35.6) (6) (6) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M MSKY IJ relative to JCI Henry Wibowo (henry.wibowo@bahana.co.id) ext. 649 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,41/482 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,1/1,17 Majority shareholder (%) : PT Global Mediacom Tbk (83.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 725.2/1.7 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 7,493/559 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) :.4/.3 Bloomberg/Reuters code : MSKY.IJ/MSKY.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 274

275 217 Compendium MNC SKY VISION Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 3,279 3,235 3,273 3,51 3,814 Gross profit EBITDA 1,258 1,16 1,191 1,366 1,565 Depreciation 1,13 1,19 1,19 1,131 1,188 EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (176) (27) (175) (2) (2) Forex gain/(losses) (168) (527) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit (19) (824) (43) Taxes (35) (47) (11) 9 44 Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit (155) (776) (32) Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 3,346 4,48 4,548 5,48 5,548 Other assets 1,66 1,679 1,593 1,594 1,596 Total assets 5,875 6,569 7,664 8,324 8,652 Interest bearing liabilities 3,52 3,447 3,5 4, 4,1 Trade payables 856 1,8 1,252 1,448 1,52 Other liabilities Total liabilities 4,284 5,18 5,518 6,223 6,419 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 1,591 1,389 2,145 2,11 2,233 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation 1,13 1,19 1,19 1,131 1,188 Working capital (139) Other operating items (4) (828) (114) (29) (244) Operating cash flow ,513 1,33 1,364 Net capital expenditure (1,368) (1,862) (1,548) (1,631) (1,688) Free cash flow (649) (982) (36) (32) (324) Equity raised/(bought) (71) - Net borrowings Other financing 5 (8) Net cash flow (447) (23) (224) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) (9.3) (52.1) (1.8) ROAA (%) (2.6) (12.5) (.5) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) (4.7) (24.) (1.) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

276 217 Compendium NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO HOLD* PX: IDR1,54 - TP: IDR1,6 Indonesia s growing modern channel is a double edge sword for the country s largest producer of bread products (9% market share), ROTI. While it is set to continue benefiting from Indonesia s modern consumption trend of moving away from rice-base diet, we see increasing return rate of more than 15% (vs. 13% in 215), which is likely to persist into 217F driven by growth in modern trade retailers (c.8% of total distribution channels). On a more positive note, current intense competition among flour producers should enable ROTI to obtain more beneficial raw materials prices going forward. On valuation, our IDR1,6 TP implies 217F PE of 25.9x, a 25% discount to the consumer staples sector. HOLD on limited upside potential. Downside risk: Intensifying competition from other bread makers. Upside risk: Lower wheat prices to support earnings. Share price performance (IDR) 1,9 1,7 1,5 1,3 1,1 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) ROTI IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) 8.3 (.1).3 (.3) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M ROTI IJ relative to JCI Renaldy Effendy (renaldy@bahana.co.id) ext. 366 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 14, 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (5) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 1,88 2,175 2,517 2,989 3,56 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (58) FCF yield (%) (3.8) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net volume (packs mn) Sales return to net revenue (%) Blended ASP (IDR ) HRW wheat price (USD/ton) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,77/1,16 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,/1,45 Majority shareholder (%) : Indoritel Makmur Intl. (31.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 5,62/3.6 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 7,77/578 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 3.6/.3 Bloomberg/Reuters code : ROTI IJ/ROTI.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 276

277 217 Compendium NIPPON INDOSARI CORPINDO Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,88 2,175 2,517 2,989 3,56 Gross profit 91 1,155 1,312 1,526 1,761 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (46) (72) (71) (73) (8) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (64) (18) (15) (116) (129) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 1,68 1,821 1,934 2,46 2,827 Other assets Total assets 2,143 2,76 2,998 3,377 3,769 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 1,189 1,518 1,569 1,713 1,843 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 954 1,188 1,429 1,664 1,926 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (54) Other operating items (3) (13) (12) (62) (78) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (598) (248) (231) (599) (576) Free cash flow (295) Equity raised/(bought) - (1) Net borrowings (1) - - Other financing 178 (153) (142) (178) (187) Net cash flow (15) (85) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

278 217 Compendium PAKUWON JATI HOLD PX: IDR69 - TP: IDR65 Under our property coverage (ex those with hospitals), PWON has the largest recurring income base from its malls (48% of total revenue), which has experienced 2% y-y decline in occupancy rates due to tenant relocations. Hence, we lower our 216F recurring income contribution by 3% on lower assumptions of ARR and occupancy rate. With weakness in its recurring portion, PWON s development income should rise to 5% in 217F (216F: 46%) helped by PWON s readyto-sell high-end projects and incoming tax amnesty funds. Thus, we expect PWON to book double-digit 217 EPS growth of 22.6% y-y. On valuation, we reiterate our 12M TP of IDR65 based on a 5% discount to 217F NAV, driven by strong recurring income and plenty of ready high-end projects. HOLD as story well priced. Downside risk: Worse-than-expected modern retail sales growth holding back rental rates; Upside risk: Better-than-expected economic recovery. Share price performance (IDR) (') 8 4, 75 35, 7 3, 65 25, 6 2, 55 15, 5 1, 45 5, 4 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Volume (RHS) PWON IJ Px Last (%) (%) (.5) (1) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M PWON IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II (1) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 3,872 4,625 4,97 5,578 6,422 EBIT (IDRbn) 1,889 2,265 2,316 2,72 3,124 Net profit (IDRbn) 2,515 1,262 1,512 1,854 2,176 Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 122. (49.8) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (66) (2) 5 (7) (8) FCF yield (%) (9.5) (2.9).8 (1.) (1.2) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price NAV Calculation 217F Land bank (Ha) 453 Total value (IDRbn) 7,435 NAV/share (IDR) 1,32 Discount (%) 5 Adjusted NAV/share (IDR) 65 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 765/416 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 865/46 Majority shareholder (%) : Burgami Investments (2.9) Share outstanding (m)/free float (%) : 48,16/47.8 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 33,23/2,456 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 58.4/4.3 Bloomberg/Reuters code : PWON IJ/PWON.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 278

279 217 Compendium PAKUWON JATI Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 3,872 4,625 4,97 5,578 6,422 Gross profit 2,158 2,669 2,793 3,29 3,727 EBITDA 2,471 2,535 2,678 3,98 3,558 Depreciation EBIT 1,889 2,265 2,316 2,72 3,124 Net interest inc./(expense) (77) (74) (219) (246) (282) Forex gain/(losses) (4) (277) Other income/(expense) 1,86 (172) (189) (47) (24) Pre-tax profit 2,859 1,741 1,989 2,48 2,818 Taxes (26) (341) (319) (363) (417) Minority interest (84) (139) (158) (192) (224) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 2,515 1,262 1,512 1,854 2,176 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 2,89 2,71 2,668 2,93 3,14 S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories 3,133 3,846 4,615 5,268 6,24 Fixed assets 9,12 1,344 12,477 14,75 16,79 Other assets 1,445 2,249 2,41 2,325 2,675 Total assets 16,77 18,778 22,123 25,58 28,875 Interest bearing liabilities 4,596 4,98 5,222 5,772 6,272 Trade payables Other liabilities 3,764 4,217 5,89 6,834 7,436 Total liabilities 8,494 9,323 11,123 12,716 13,84 Minority interest 2,11 2,236 2,46 2,76 2,976 Shareholders' equity 6,166 7,219 8,54 1,158 12,59 Cashflow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1,889 2,265 2,316 2,72 3,124 Depreciation Working capital (914) (447) (368) Other operating items 364 (1,563) (913) (965) (1,135) Operating cash flow 1, ,744 2,299 2,54 Net capital expenditure (5,78) (1,491) (2,494) (2,624) (2,439) Free cash flow (3,157) (966) 25 (325) (384) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 2, Other financing 1,658 (83) (5) Net cash flow 683 (738) Cash flow at beginning 2,126 2,89 2,71 2,668 2,93 Ending cash flow 2,89 2,71 2,668 2,93 3,14 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days) na na na na na 279

280 217 Compendium PANORAMA SENTRAWISATA* BUY PX: IDR595- TP: IDR925 PANR, Indonesia s largest listed tour operator, stands to benefit from many new government incentives to stimulate tourism, in line with Jokowi s initiatives. The company has five main segments: outbound tours (38% of gross sales), airplane ticketing (26%), hotel vouchers (25%), inbound tours (9%), and others (2%) from documentation and conventions. PANR s strong offline channels (i.e. more than 2, hotel partners), one of the largest in the country, enables the company to grow its online hotel and ticket sales. Additionally, PANR recently announced its hotel-voucher subsidiary s rights issue plan. On valuation, we have a 12-month target price of IDR925, based on c.4% discount to our SOTP valuation, reflecting 16.8x 217F PER. We initiate our coverage on PANR with a BUY. Downside risks include delay in government tourism projects and macroeconomic slowdown. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 1,956 1,919 2,11 2,34 2,71 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (112) (132) (9) (13) (2) FCF yield (%) (18.8) (22.1) (1.5) (2.2) (.4) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, (') 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Airplane ticket sales vol. (pax) 361,72 394,4 41, ,35 468,758 Hotel vouchers sales vol. (nights) 755,44 973,45 992,873 1,72,33 1,158,87 7-Oct-15 7-Dec-15 7-Feb-16 7-Apr-16 7-Jun-16 7-Aug-16 7-Oct (1) (2) (3) (5.5) (15.6) Volume (RHS) (9.) (7.) CPIN IJ Px Last (%) (%) (26.5) (3) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M CPIN IJ relative to JCI Michael W. Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) ext. 362 *New, please refer to appendix II (1) (2) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 67/424 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 68/67 Majority shareholder (%) : Panorama Tirta Anugerah (64.3) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,2/32.3 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 744/55 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 1.8/.1 Bloomberg/Reuters code : PANR IJ/PANR.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 28

281 217 Compendium PANORAMA SENTRAWISATA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,956 1,919 2,11 2,34 2,71 Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (7) (68) (1) (15) (11) Forex gain/(losses) 2 () () - - Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets Other assets Total assets 1,67 1,746 1,859 2,16 2,392 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 1,233 1,333 1,354 1,486 1,62 Minority interest Shareholders' equity Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital 2 (9) Other operating items (257) (13) (725) (857) (98) Operating cash flow (9) (74) Net capital expenditure (44) (84) (51) (56) (62) Free cash flow (134) (158) (11) (16) (3) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (5) Other financing 114 (193) Net cash flow (26) (39) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

282 217 Compendium PELAYARAN TEMPURAN EMAS BUY PX: IDR1,5 - TP: IDR2,59* TMAS, one of the leading players in container shipping, is likely to benefit from the massive USD75bn government spending allocation on maritime-related investments. This would improve sea transportation efficiencies, eventually leading to higher cargo traffic. Implementation of Cabotage law should also limit competition in the shipping space. Having restructured post the difficult period of 29-11, TMAS now has the youngest fleet and is in a solid position to capture industry demand growth. Its USD1mn capex to purchase 11 vessels and raise total capacity by 3% should yield high returns given the resilient outlook. On the back of capacity expansion and improving margins due to operating efficiencies, TMAS should see a F EPS CAGR of 33%. Hence, we retain our positive view with 12M TP of IDR2,59, based on a 217F PE of 11x. Risks to our call: execution delays, higher competition and slower-than-expected infrastructure progress. Share price performance (IDR) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) TMAS IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (36.6) (1.1) (3.) (26.5) (32.) (39.8) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M TMAS IJ relative to JCI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 1,522 1,621 1,661 1,933 2,275 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) na EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (35.9) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) 16 (12) (27) FCF yield (%) 7.1 (.8) (18.) BVPS (IDR) ,96 1,334 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Total vessels (unit) Total capacity (k DWT) Total TEUs Delivery (k unit) Total calls 1,481 1,777 2,133 2,666 3,332 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,5/1,365 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 3,132/3,2 Majority shareholder (%) : Temas Lestari (8) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,141/18.7 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 1,697/126 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 2.7/.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : TMAS IJ/TMAS.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 282

283 217 Compendium PELAYARAN TEMPURAN EMAS Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,522 1,621 1,661 1,933 2,275 Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (89) (7) (83) (84) (127) Forex gain/(losses) 2 (21) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (33) () (71) (81) (96) Minority interest (1) () (1) (1) (1) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 1,295 1,459 1,72 1,91 2,484 Other assets Total assets 1,627 1,782 2,84 2,365 3,93 Interest bearing liabilities ,186 Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 1, ,84 1,112 1,576 Minority interest Shareholders' equity ,25 1,523 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital 3 (5) (1) (18) (2) Other operating items (268) (22) (126) (253) (19) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure 12 (38) (315) (321) (867) Free cash flow 28 (14) (38) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (171) (19) 5 (9) 413 Other financing (47) 15 (17) (12) (12) Net cash flow (1) (18) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

284 217 Compendium PEMBANGUNAN PERUMAHAN BUY **PX: IDR3,883 - **TP: IDR4,63 State-owned PTPP, Indonesia s second largest listed construction company by market cap, is likely to benefit from the booming infrastructure and energy segments through its spin-off strategy. PTPP s 5 subsidiaries in property, infrastructure, energy, precast and machinery should enjoy significant growth ahead, in our view. Capitalizing on its IDR4.4tn rights issue in 216 and upcoming corporate actions of its subsidiaries in 217, PTPP will have plenty of capacity to expand its order book from IDR57tn in 215 to IDR98tn in 218, supported by its low net gearing. Building construction will likely remain the biggest segment of PTPP s new contracts ahead. Solid project execution and solid net profit growth ahead have us maintaining our BUY rating on PTPP with a 12-month TP of IDR4,63, based on a PE of 22.4x 217F EPS, relatively at par with the sector. Risk: Payment delays on private projects. Share price performance (IDR) 4,7 4,2 3,7 3,2 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) PTPP IJ Px Last (%) (%) 1 5 (5) (1) (1.9) (8.7) (8.9) (8.4) (1) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 6.1 PTPP IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext. 368 *New, please refer to appendix II ** TERP (Theoretical Ex-Rigths Price) (2.) (') 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 1 5 (5) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 12,427 14,217 2,126 24,935 29,923 EBIT (IDRbn) 1,328 1,664 2,225 2,728 3,266 Net profit (IDRbn) ,1 1,32 1,623 Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (153) 1 (565) (398) (322) FCF yield (%) (3.9). (14.6) (1.3) (8.3) BVPS (IDR) ,993 2,22 2,5 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Carried over (IDRbn) 22,278 29,867 39,59 48,53 57,2 New contracts (IDRbn) 2,24 27,73 31,16 35,668 41,19 New contracts growth (%) Total order books (IDRbn) 42,518 56,94 7,66 84,198 98,39 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 4,85/3,3 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 5,5/3,935 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (51.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 4,842/49. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 19,66/1,458 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 35.4/2.6 Bloomberg/Reuters code : PTPP IJ/PTPP.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 284

285 217 Compendium PEMBANGUNAN PERUMAHAN Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 12,427 14,217 2,126 24,935 29,923 Gross profit 1,64 2,74 2,694 3,284 3,933 EBITDA 1,473 1,765 2,348 2,873 3,434 Depreciation EBIT 1,328 1,664 2,225 2,728 3,266 Net interest inc./(expense) (32) (257) (356) (313) (38) Forex gain/(losses) (8) (8) Other income/(expense) (9) (189) (9) (12) (138) Pre-tax profit 919 1,289 1,792 2,286 2,812 Taxes (387) (442) (644) (798) (958) Minority interest - (15) (138) (186) (232) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit ,1 1,32 1,623 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 2,48 3,25 5,53 3,718 2,577 S-T investments Trade receivables 2,3 2,927 4,136 5,124 6,148 Inventories 2,52 2,499 2,786 3,111 3,478 Fixed assets 713 3,12 3,735 4,344 4,931 Other assets 6,453 7,298 8,52 11,788 15,27 Total assets 14,579 19,129 24,964 28,362 32,439 Interest bearing liabilities 3,32 3,678 3,928 3,623 3,648 Trade payables 7,22 7,888 7,216 8,958 1,75 Other liabilities 2,176 2,444 3,357 4,139 4,952 Total liabilities 12,229 14,1 14,5 16,72 19,349 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,348 4,382 9,653 1,75 12,18 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1,328 1,664 2,225 2,728 3,266 Depreciation Working capital (1,5) (62) (1,92) (834) (91) Other operating items (6) (578) (1,286) (1,412) (1,613) Operating cash flow (132) 584 (84) Net capital expenditure (61) (578) (1,897) (2,557) (2,469) Free cash flow (742) 6 (2,737) (1,929) (1,559) Equity raised/(bought) () 226 4, Net borrowings (69) 27 Other financing (39) (334) Net cash flow ,54 (1,811) (1,141) Cash balances, beginning 2,397 2,48 3,25 5,53 3,718 Ending cash 2,48 3,26 5,53 3,718 2,577 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) nc nc 8.8 Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

286 217 Compendium PERUSAHAAN GAS NEGARA BUY PX: IDR2,53 - TP: IDR2,89* Three key risks remain for PGAS investors in 217: (1) Valuation of share swaps between PGAS and Pertagas during their planned merger under Pertamina, (2) Could GCG become a new risk under Pertamina leadership, and (3) Gas price cut PGAS has to undertake, as it currently generates about 12% to 14% IRR for its pipe investments, which is on the high side of the government s target of 12%. On operations, PGAS continues to lose volumes on (1) lower industry demand and (2) higher gas prices as legacy contracts continue to be repriced higher at around USD6-8/mmbtu, while PGAS continues to import LNG to make up for lost volumes at a cost of about USD1/mmbtu. In terms of valuation, our 12-month target price of IDR2,89/share reflects USD3/mmbtu long-term PGAS gross margins without factoring in any of the above risks. Hence, we will revisit our BUY rating when there is clarity on the above-mentioned risks. Share price performance (IDR) 3,5 3,25 3, 2,75 2,5 2,25 2, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) PGAS IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (21.3) (16.1) (.3) (16.2) (29.6) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M PGAS IJ relative to JCI Andrew Hotama (andrew.franklin@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II (') 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, (1) (2) (3) (4) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (USDmn) 3,253 3,69 2,885 3,371 3,965 EBIT (USDmn) Net profit (USDmn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (11.6) (35.9) (8.6) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (317) (19) FCF yield (%) (12.5) (4.3) BVPS (IDR) 1,49 1,681 1,84 1,994 2,177 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Distribution volume (mmscfd) Growth (%) 5. (7.3) Tariff (USD/mmbtu) Growth (%).1 (3.1) (4.8) LNG price (USD/mmbtu) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 3,52/2,17 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 4,/1,5 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (57.) ) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 24,242/43. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 61,331/4,51 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 126.2/9.3 Bloomberg/Reuters code : PGAS IJ/PGAS.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 286

287 217 Compendium PERUSAHAAN GAS NEGARA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 3,253 3,69 2,885 3,371 3,965 Gross profit 1, ,6 1,25 EBITDA 979 1, Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (42) (11) (95) (9) (83) Forex gain/(losses) 49 (14) (21) - - Other income/(expense) 63 (7) Pre-tax profit Taxes (219) (4) (123) (159) (171) Minority interest (2) (1) (2) (2) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1,131 1,136 1,54 1,766 2,112 S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 3,242 3,565 3,72 3,711 3,635 Other assets 866 1,4 1,39 1,386 1,383 Total assets 5,69 6,495 7,14 7,321 7,656 Interest bearing liabilities 1,853 2,79 2,985 2,934 2,91 Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 2,814 3,472 3,773 3,739 3,744 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,876 3,21 3,239 3,58 3,99 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital 42 (78) 19 (39) (31) Other operating items (239) (11) (4) (46) (82) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (1,434) (751) (469) (316) (179) Free cash flow (646) (222) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (51) (32) Other financing (375) (629) (141) (136) (185) Net cash flow (13) Cash balances, beginning 1,234 1,131 1,136 1,54 1,766 Ending cash 1,131 1,136 1,54 1,766 2,112 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

288 217 Compendium PP PROPERTI REDUCE* PX: IDR1,335 - TP: IDR6 Known as a mid-low cost apartment specialist, PPRO, a subsidiary of PTPP, is currently struggling to diversify its portfolio due to a limited 36ha landbank. To address the landbank issue, PPRO has issued IDR6bn in bonds that will likely increase the company s gearing to more than 39% in 216. PPRO booked weak marketing sales of IDR1.5tn in 9M16, around 6% of its IDR2.5tn full-year target, on tough macro conditions and the government s aggressive taxation drive in 1H16. Thus, we maintain our conservative F pre-sales of IDR tn. As valuation looks unattractive and due to a limited landbank and low recurring income portion (9M16: 9%), we downgrade our call to REDUCE. On valuation, based on a 6% discount to our 217F NAV, we maintain our 12M TP of IDR6. Risks to our call: Faster project realization and higher mid-low cost property demand. Share price performance (IDR) 1,5 1,3 1, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Volume (RHS) PPRO IJ Px Last (') 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M PPRO IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 555 1,55 1,898 2,95 2,329 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/cons.(%) na EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (18.69) (16.2) (6.27) FCF yield (%) (.2) (.8) (.).1.1 BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price NAV Calculation 217F Land bank (Ha) 36 Total value (IDRbn) 24,77 NAV/share (IDR) 1,59 Discount (%) 6 Adjusted NAV/share (IDR) 6 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,49/165 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 6/193 Majority shareholder (%) : PP (65.) Share outstanding (m)/free float (%) : 14,44/35. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 18,749/1,386 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 89.2/6.6 Bloomberg/Reuters code : PPRO IJ/PPRO.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 288

289 217 Compendium PP PROPERTI Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 555 1,55 1,898 2,95 2,329 Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) 1 (14) (54) (7) (71) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (25) (72) (95) (15) (116) Minority interest () () () () () Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables 439 1,379 1,56 1,722 1,914 Inventories 1,529 1,498 1,656 1,723 1,795 Fixed assets 217 1,674 1,842 2,175 2,84 Other assets ,48 Total assets 2,73 5,319 6,48 7,38 8,539 Interest bearing liabilities 37 1,329 1,478 1,528 1,529 Trade payables , ,112 Other liabilities 1, ,5 2,56 Total liabilities 1,699 2,81 3,323 4,24 5,2 Minority interest () Shareholders' equity 1,31 2,516 2,722 3,1 3,333 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (175) (257) (17) Other operating items (22) (94) (163) (195) (235) Operating cash flow (62) ,348 Net capital expenditure (19) (1,553) (357) (669) (1,183) Free cash flow (171) (1,489) (88) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 296 (14) 962 (3) Other financing (835) (115) (132) Net cash flow Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days) na na na na na 289

290 217 Compendium PURADELTA LESTARI BUY PX: IDR242 - TP: IDR28* As the purest industrial estate player, DMAS is currently undergoing portfolio diversification by developing a 126-unit service apartment tower. All units have been booked for the next 2 years with total rental income of around IDR3bn/annum, allowing DMAS to target 13% higher recurring income in 217, up from just 6% in 9M16. In 217, DMAS is poised to benefit from an expected pick-up in the 4W auto market given plenty of auto-related tenants. We expect its solid 8M16 pre-sales of 51ha, above DMAS s internal full-year target, to further improve and support our 217F EPS growth of 17% y-y. Based on our new NAV calculation using different discounts for each land bank value, we retain our BUY call but lower our 12M TP to IDR28 from IDR29, based on a 77% discount to 217F NAV (previous: 6%). Our positive view is also cemented by DMAS s healthy balance sheet and solid pre-sales. Risks: Worse-than-expected 4W demand and FDI. Share price performance (IDR) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) DMAS IJ Px Last (') 35, (%) (%) 1 5 (5) (1) (.9) (3.3) (9.2) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M DMAS IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II , 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, 1 5 (5) (1) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 1,538 2,286 1,515 1,78 1,84 EBIT (IDRbn) 1,3 1, ,68 Net profit (IDRbn) 964 1, ,43 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (42.8) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (3) 7 9 FCF yield (%) (1.3) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price NAV calculation 217F Land bank (Ha) 1,648 Discount (%) 77 Total value (IDRbn) 12,734 Adjusted NAV/share (IDR) 28 Company information 12M High/low (IDR) : 296/183 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 35/26 Majority shareholder (%) : AFP International Capital (53.9) Share outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 48,198/2. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 11,664/865 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 13.4/1 Bloomberg/Reuters code : DMAS IJ/DMAS.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 29

291 217 Compendium PURADELTA LESTARI Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,538 2,286 1,515 1,78 1,84 Gross profit 1,76 1, ,78 1,178 EBITDA 1,6 1, ,73 Depreciation EBIT 1,3 1, ,68 Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) (4) 135 (39) (3) - Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit 1,47 1, ,6 1,142 Taxes (83) (127) (82) (92) (99) Minority interest () () () () () Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 964 1, ,43 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1,381 1, S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories 6,29 5,737 6,37 6,537 7,237 Fixed assets Other assets ,4 1,15 1,216 Total assets 7,64 8,8 8,3 8,685 9,593 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 1, Minority interest Shareholders' equity 6,393 7,158 7,75 8,345 9,75 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1,3 1, ,68 Depreciation Working capital (14) 56 () () (1) Other operating items (293) (598) (72) (111) 44 Operating cash flow ,116 Net capital expenditure (31) (52) (72) Free cash flow (157) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (76) (593) Other financing (1,58) (234) (274) (313) Net cash flow 96 (26) (391) Cash flow at beginning 1,285 1,381 1, Ending cash flow 1,381 1, Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na na Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

292 217 Compendium RAMAYANA LESTARI SENTOSA BUY PX: IDR1,22- TP: IDR1,44* RALS, Indonesia s largest low-end department store chain with 113 outlets, is making a comeback, backed by positive post-lebaran SSSG (9M16: +7.1%) and improving working capital management. Furthermore, the recent collaboration with Tokopedia allows RALS to gain a foothold in Indonesia s rapidly growing e-commerce market. RALS s robust performance is likely to persist as a result of the consumer purchasing power recovery coupled with Jokowi s initiatives for low-end consumers. In addition, the company will likely experience margin expansion from the improved sales/sqm and higher sales contribution from the outright segment in particular. Looking ahead, we are positive on RALS outlook with a TP of IDR1,44, based on a 217F PE of 22.5x, a 1% discount to the sector multiple of 25x. Downside risks include a lower-than-expected SSSG on the back of weak GDP growth and intense competition. Share price performance Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 7,942 7,786 8,22 8,681 9,28 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (8.9) (5.5) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (19) FCF yield (%) (1.5) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net Sales Growth (%) (.3) (2.) Sales/sqm (IDR mn) SSSG (%).6 (2.7) Richard Danusaputra (richard@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 *New, please refer to appendix II Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,41/55 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,/85 Majority shareholder (%) : PT Ramayana Makmursentosa (55.9) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 7,96/29.6 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 8,657/642 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 12.3/.9 Bloomberg/Reuters code : RALS IJ/RALS.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 292

293 217 Compendium RAMAYANA LESTARI SENTOSA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 7,942 7,786 8,22 8,681 9,28 Gross profit 2,48 1,996 2,174 2,327 2,495 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) (6) () () - - Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (33) (29) (67) (79) (87) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents ,74 S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 1,375 1,333 1,358 1,391 1,452 Other assets 1,697 1,539 1,525 1,727 1,789 Total assets 4,566 4,575 4,738 4,997 5,272 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 1,24 1,241 1,83 1,162 1,224 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 3,326 3,334 3,655 3,835 4,48 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Net income Depreciation Working capital 55 (15) (147) () (1) Other operating items (615) (197) (32) Operating cash flow (7) Net capital expenditure (127) (14) (18) (18) (126) Free cash flow (134) Equity raised/(bought) - (136) Net borrowings Other financing (11) (1) (334) (238) (288) Net cash flow (244) (2) 113 Cash at the beg Cash at the end ,74 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na na Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

294 217 Compendium SALIM IVOMAS PRATAMA HOLD PX: IDR55 - TP: IDR53 In 217, SIMP, an integrated palm oil company, is focusing on 4 key strategies: (1) prioritizing its immature planting development, (2) building 3 new CPO mills in South Sumatera and Kalimantan, (3) replanting some old-aged CPO estates in North Sumatra and Riau, and (4) expanding Surabaya refinery facility by 1,mt/day. Furthermore, we also expect LSIP s production recovery to benefit SIMP in 217. Note that LSIP contributes c.44% of SIMP s CPO production. However, we see possible risk of lower refinery margins going forward, stemming from the government s plan on setting price caps for cooking oil products, which contributes c.7% of total sales. On possible price cap on cooking oil prices limiting margin expansion, we retain our HOLD rating with 12M TP of IDR53, based on 217F PE of 12.9x. Downside risks: Higher downstream competition and further intervention on cooking oil prices; Upside risk: Higher CPO prices. Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 14,963 13,835 14,12 16,211 17,374 EBIT (IDRbn) 2,48 1,632 1,26 1,93 2,98 Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 65.2 (69.5) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (42) (113) (7) (11) (39) FCF yield (%) (5.7) (15.2) (1.) (1.4) (5.3) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) SIMP IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (1.6) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M SIMP IJ relative to JCI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (1) Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F FFB production nucleus (k tons) 3,259 3,414 3,452 3,637 5,768 Growth (%) CPO production (k tons) 957 1,2 1,15 1,134 1,269 Growth (%) CPO price (USD/ton) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 555/285 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 586/473 Majority shareholder (%) : Indofood Agri Resources Ltd (72.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 15,816/21.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 7,84/581 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 4.2/.3 Bloomberg/Reuters code : SIMP IJ/SIMP.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 294

295 217 Compendium SALIM IVOMAS PRATAMA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 14,963 13,835 14,12 16,211 17,374 Gross profit 4,35 3,1 2,728 3,581 3,85 EBITDA 3,46 2,768 2,57 3,373 3,676 Depreciation 98 1,136 1,31 1,444 1,579 EBIT 2,48 1,632 1,26 1,93 2,98 Net interest inc./(expense) (658) (899) (497) (59) (537) Forex gain/(losses) (78) (249) Other income/(expense) (34) Pre-tax profit 1, ,424 1,564 Taxes (572) (313) (427) (658) (723) Minority interest (272) (1) (12) (118) (126) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 2,696 1,461 1,654 1,779 1,117 S-T investments Trade receivables 989 1, ,22 Inventories 1,773 1,937 1,569 1,81 1,93 Fixed assets 18,644 18,852 21,216 22,173 14,97 Other assets 6,894 8,341 7,215 7,273 25,125 Total assets 3,996 31,697 32,59 33,98 34,884 Interest bearing liabilities 8,888 9,17 9,47 9,77 9,77 Trade payables Other liabilities 4,834 4,546 3,811 4,257 5,371 Total liabilities 14,584 14,465 13,977 14,86 15,33 Minority interest 2,534 3,26 3,249 3,3 3,354 Shareholders' equity 13,878 14,26 14,383 14,974 15,597 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 2,48 1,632 1,26 1,93 2,98 Depreciation 98 1,136 1,31 1,444 1,579 Working capital 56 (295) (65) Other operating items (1,223) (2,915) 626 (1,194) (1,334) Operating cash flow 2,293 (442) 3,552 2,231 2,277 Net capital expenditure (2,96) (1,344) (3,666) (2,4) (2,9) Free cash flow (667) (1,785) (114) (169) (623) Equity raised/(bought) (174) Net borrowings 1, Other financing (6) (39) Net cash flow 583 (1,235) (662) Cash flow at beginning 2,113 2,696 1,461 1,654 1,779 Ending cash flow 2,696 1,461 1,654 1,779 1,117 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

296 217 Compendium SAMPOERNA AGRO BUY PX: IDR1,9 - TP: IDR2,175 With its total oil palm planted area of 138k ha (second smallest in our coverage), SGRO expects an improved outlook in 217 on higher CPO prices and an improving production recovery that had started in 3Q16, after 1 consecutive months of production downturn. SGRO s lower-margin plasma business is being surpassed by its nucleus production. We also expect less production volatility due to the rising production proportion from its Kalimantan estate. In addition, SGRO s nucleus estates average age profile has reached a favorable production level of 1 years, providing growth support. As we expect 217F earnings to reach IDR289bn, +136% y-y, we reiterate our BUY rating on SGRO with a 12M TP of IDR2,175, based on a 217F PE of 14.2x, set at a c.4% discount to its regional peers due to its small-cap status. Risks: Volatile production on plasma proportion and lower-than-expected CPO prices. Share price performance (IDR) 2,3 2,1 1,9 1,7 1,5 1,3 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) SGRO IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (1.1) 2.9 (.7) (9.3) (11.5) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M SGRO IJ relative to JCI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 *New, please refer to appendix II 22.1 (') 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, (1) (2) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 3,242 2,999 2,486 3,548 3,84 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 186 (27) (51) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (177) (359) (35) (223) (253) FCF yield (%) (9.3) (18.9) (1.8) (11.8) (13.3) BVPS (IDR) 1,572 1,65 1,735 1,867 2,15 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F FFB production nucleus (k tons) ,114 1,28 Growth (%) (7.9) CPO production (k tons) Growth (%) (26.5) CPO price (USD/ton) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,18/1,37 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,256/1,656 Majority shareholder (%) : Sampoerna Agri Resources (67.1) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,89/27.2 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 3,579/265 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) :.3/.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : SGRO IJ/SGRO.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 296

297 217 Compendium SAMPOERNA AGRO Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 3,242 2,999 2,486 3,548 3,84 Gross profit ,29 1,143 EBITDA ,87 Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (62) (112) (171) (179) (28) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit (16) Taxes (16) (14) 289 (128) (145) Minority interest (1) (8) (7) (1) (11) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 3,675 4,279 4,547 4,961 5,34 Other assets 1,212 1,644 1,377 1,642 1,769 Total assets 5,469 7,295 7,371 7,877 8,49 Interest bearing liabilities 1,69 2,773 2,815 2,945 3,559 Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 2,459 3,878 3,786 4,33 4,355 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,97 3,118 3,279 3,528 3,89 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (19) (194) (374) Other operating items (229) (224) 141 (336) (368) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (1,119) (1,152) (457) (86) (822) Free cash flow (335) (678) (66) (422) (478) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 393 1, Other financing (26) (66) (44) Net cash flow (358) 92 Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

298 217 Compendium SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA BUY PX: IDR3,7 - TP: IDR5,6 On the back of a mid-216 EXCL tower acquisition amounting to 2,5 units, TOWR has cemented its status as Indonesia s largest independent provider with 14,775 towers. Looking into 217, TOWR will likely enjoy an increased number of tenants to 26,568 (+21% y-y) as the company s number of towers reaches 15,837 (+4.5% y-y), reflecting a collocation rate of 1.7x, relatively flat on a y-y basis. Going forward, TOWR s growth should be backed by telco operators strategies to pursue asset-light business models and continue selling down non-core assets such as towers to tower companies. On the balance sheet side, we expect TOWR to have a solid cash position to support both future organic and inorganic expansions. On valuation, we retain our BUY rating with a DCF-based (WACC: 9.2%) 12-month target price of IDR5,6. Risks to our call include greater-than-expected competition and higher operating costs. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 4,16 4,47 4,956 5,637 6,87 EBIT (IDRbn) 3,8 3,386 3,767 4,282 4,649 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,1 2,958 2,86 2,9 3,36 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (5.2) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (57) FCF yield (%) (1.6) BVPS (IDR) ,28 1,312 1,641 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 5, 4,5 4, (') 15, 12, 9, 6, 3, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ASP (IDR mn) Tower sites (units) 11,595 12,237 15,157 15,837 16,517 Collocation (x) 8,543 8,81 1,391 1,731 11,71 3,5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) TOWR IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (1) (2) (15.8) (18.1) (2) (3) (26.6) (3) (4) (35.6) (4) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M TOWR IJ relative to JCI Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama.co.id) ext. 361 *New, please refer to appendix II Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 4,85/3,6 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 5,8/4, Majority shareholder (%) : Sapta Adhikari Investama (32.7) Share outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,23/66. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 37,751/2,8 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) :.4/. Bloomberg/Reuters code : TOWR IJ/TOWR.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 298

299 217 Compendium SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 4,16 4,47 4,956 5,637 6,87 Gross profit 3,53 3,898 4,287 4,874 5,288 EBITDA 3,418 3,776 4,225 4,85 5,189 Depreciation EBIT 3,8 3,386 3,767 4,282 4,649 Net interest inc./(expense) (849) (55) (584) (542) (465) Forex gain/(losses) (5) (428) Other income/(expense) (669) 1, Pre-tax profit 1,557 3,958 3,96 4,37 4,489 Taxes (458) (993) (1,94) (1,13) (1,122) Minority interest 1 (6) (6) (6) (7) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 1,1 2,958 2,86 2,9 3,36 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 2,1 2,987 4,225 5,567 7,582 S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 12,368 14,683 18,322 18,854 19,377 Other assets 2,332 3,265 3,662 3,656 3,655 Total assets 17,282 21,417 26,81 28,761 31,353 Interest bearing liabilities 9,354 9,93 11,93 1,73 9,73 Trade payables Other liabilities 2,74 3,619 4,183 4,413 4,638 Total liabilities 12,566 13,738 16,325 15,375 14,68 Minority interest (8) (2) (2) (2) (2) Shareholders' equity 4,724 7,68 1,486 13,387 16,747 Cashflow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 3,8 3,386 3,767 4,282 4,649 Depreciation Working capital 147 (111) (59) (29) (34) Other operating items (1,45) (2,584) (1,82) (1,673) (1,586) Operating cash flow 2,115 1,81 3,84 3,13 3,569 Net capital expenditure (1,73) (475) (3,669) (561) (554) Free cash flow (585) 2,542 3,15 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings , (1,2) (1,) Other financing 72 (177) (177) - - Net cash flow ,238 1,342 2,15 Cash balances, beginning 1,56 2,1 2,987 4,225 5,567 Ending cash 2,1 2,987 4,225 5,567 7,582 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

300 217 Compendium SEMEN BATURAJA REDUCE PX: IDR2,49 - TP: IDR315* Going forward, we expect SMBR s operating margin of 2% to be sustainable, having fully reflected the already fierce competitive landscape within South Sumatra s cement industry, in our opinion. On a more positive note, SMBR s strategic location provides the company with an edge over its competitors which have to import their goods from West Java, or West Sumatra. South Sumatra and Palembang will see superior volume growth looking ahead, as the region is sensitive to commodities prices especially CPO, for which we have a constructive view. Palembang is also hosting the ASEAN games in 218, and there are ample other government projects to support bulk demand around the area. On 638% share price appreciation in the past 12 months, we rate SMBR a REDUCE, with IDR315 TP or 15x 217F P/E, in line with industry average P/E. Risk: Continued retail investors excitement in the share price. Share price performance (IDR) 2,25 1,75 1, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) SMBR IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M SMBR IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 75, 6, 45, 3, 15, 4 2 Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 1,215 1,461 1,48 1,493 1,65 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (3.) 5.4 (26.9) (21.4) (9.1) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) 28 (21) (218) 22 (4) FCF yield (%) 1.1 (.8) (8.8).9 (1.6) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Volume capacity (' tons) 2, 2, 2, 3,85 3,85 Export volumes (' tons) Domestic volumes (' tons) 1,263 1,538 1,538 1,63 1,753 Total volumes (' tons) 1,263 1,538 1,538 1,63 1,753 Utilization rate (%) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,5/283 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,58/4 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (76.2) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 9,838/23.8 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 24,496/1,817 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 47.3/3.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : SMBR IJ/SMBR.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 3

301 217 Compendium SEMEN BATURAJA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,215 1,461 1,48 1,493 1,65 Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (32) (64) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) 7 (8) (7) (7) (8) Pre-tax profit Taxes (69) (89) (69) (48) (43) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 2,54 1, S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets ,157 3,157 3,649 Other assets 49 1, Total assets 2,928 3,269 4,268 4,447 4,867 Interest bearing liabilities , Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities ,13 1,384 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,683 2,949 3,191 3,344 3,483 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (73) (35) (44) (2) (11) Other operating items (18) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (63) (828) (1,961) (159) (657) Free cash flow 257 (715) (1,655) 214 (395) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings Other financing (86) (87) (17) (51) (46) Net cash flow 171 (82) (922) 163 (191) Cash balances, beginning 1,883 2,54 1, Ending cash 2,54 1, Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na Net gearing (%) nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

302 217 Compendium SEMEN INDONESIA HOLD PX: IDR8,4 - TP: IDR8,94* SMGR, Indonesia s largest cement company, still has the best franchise given: (1) it is away from the epicentre of price war in West Java/Banten areas, (2) it is a beneficiary of direct demand from government infrastructure projects due to SOE status we forecast eventual increase in receivable days to reflect this, and (3) it is best positioned in outer Java, which remains the hot spot of growth with recovery in commodities and government s regional development focus SMGR was the first big cement player to cut prices, when fuel prices were lowered in 1Q15; since then, it had EBIT margins of about 2%, sustainable in our view given INTP s higher margins of 2%-25%. Its Rembang plant s environmental issues may cause persistent negative sentiment. On valuation, we set SMGR s TP at IDR8,94, reflecting a 13x 217F PE, a 2% discount to its long-term relative to JCI P/E band on unexciting EPS growth. Risk: Intense/low competition. Share price performance (IDR) 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) SMGR IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (11.9) (15.) (15.9) (28.2) (4) (39.8) (37.8) (5) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M SMGR IJ relative to JCI Handi Huta Jaya (handi@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 75, 6, 45, 3, 15, (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 26,987 26,948 26,473 27,776 29,468 EBIT (IDRbn) 6,947 5,899 5,128 5,176 5,398 Net profit (IDRbn) 5,56 4,521 4,6 4,79 4,351 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 3.5 (18.7) (11.4) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) 4,54 4,454 4,813 5,297 5,822 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) ; note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Volume capacity (' tons) 31,8 33,3 4,3 42,1 42,1 Export volumes (' tons) Domestic volumes (' tons) 26,156 25,969 25,46 26,92 28,639 Total volumes (' tons) 26,353 26,458 26,7 27,516 29,327 Utilization rate (%) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 11,875/8,15 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 16,/8,3 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (51.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 5,932/49. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 49,825/3,695 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 8.8/6. Bloomberg/Reuters code : SMGR IJ/SMGR.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 32

303 217 Compendium SEMEN INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 26,987 26,948 26,473 27,776 29,468 Gross profit 11,579 1,646 9,885 1,298 1,886 EBITDA 8,184 7,265 6,785 7,21 7,691 Depreciation 1,237 1,366 1,657 2,25 2,293 EBIT 6,947 5,899 5,128 5,176 5,398 Net interest inc./(expense) (97) (129) (146) (16) 134 Forex gain/(losses) 75 (11) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit 7,77 5,851 5,14 5,253 5,619 Taxes (1,51) (1,325) (1,129) (1,168) (1,263) Minority interest (8) (4) (4) (5) (5) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 5,56 4,521 4,6 4,79 4,351 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 4,926 3,964 5,57 7,531 8,62 S-T investments Trade receivables 2,554 2,716 2,469 2,653 2,782 Inventories 2,812 2,49 2,799 2,799 2,975 Fixed assets 2,221 25,168 26,99 26,84 26,52 Other assets 3,714 3,868 4,63 4,373 4,765 Total assets 34,332 38,153 41,32 44,196 45,687 Interest bearing liabilities 4,1 4,197 5,122 5,15 3,164 Trade payables 3,32 3,783 3,636 3,831 4,73 Other liabilities 2,195 2,732 2,755 2,875 3,58 Total liabilities 9,327 1,712 11,512 11,856 1,294 Minority interest 958 1, Shareholders' equity 24,46 26,42 28,547 31,42 34,531 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 6,947 5,899 5,128 5,176 5,398 Depreciation 1,237 1,366 1,657 2,25 2,293 Working capital (251) 1,126 (551) (252) (334) Other operating items (1,952) (977) (949) (848) (777) Operating cash flow 5,981 7,414 5,285 6,11 6,58 Net capital expenditure (2,615) (6,389) (2,656) (2,817) (2,123) Free cash flow 3,366 1,24 2,629 3,284 4,457 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (17) (1,994) Other financing (2,341) (2,74) (2,4) (1,344) (1,392) Net cash flow 855 (962) 1,66 1,961 1,72 Cash balances, beginning 4,7 4,926 3,964 5,57 7,531 Ending cash 4,926 3,964 5,57 7,531 8,62 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na Net gearing (%) nc.9 nc nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

304 217 Compendium SIDO MUNCUL BUY PX: IDR55 - TP: IDR64 As Indonesia s leading traditional herbal medicine maker, SIDO s herbal division (57.4%) is its growth backbone, particularly given continued competitive pressure on its beverage segment (39.5%) and maximum capacity on the pharma division (3.1%). Supported by its strongest brand, Tolak Angin (7% market share), SIDO is currently in the process of doubling its liquid herbal capacity to a total of 15mn sachets/month by 4Q17, in line with Indonesia s growing demand for herbal-health remedies. We expect to see extra c.idr4bn in 217F revenue, derived from 25% higher utilization rates as production from the new plant commences. Our IDR64 TP is based on 217F PE of 17.6x, a 2% discount to the sector, sufficient to take into account its small market cap and tough energy drink market. Risks: Worse energy drinks performance and higher herbal competition raising A&P costs and lowering margins. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 2,198 2,219 2,528 2,89 3,354 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (7.2) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) (') 8, 6, 4, 2, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Herbal growth (%) Energy drinks growth (%) 8.1 (9.) (3.) (1.) (1.) Pharmacy growth (%) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 (13.5) Volume (RHS) SIDO IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) (1) (15) (2) (3.) (7.1) (1.8) (16.6) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M SIDO IJ relative to JCI Renaldy Effendy (renaldy@bahana.co.id) ext. 366 *New, please refer to appendix II (5) (1) (15) (2) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 62/494 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 73/55 Majority shareholder (%) : Sulistio Desi (4.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 15,/19. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 8,25/612 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 2.6/.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : SIDO IJ/SIDO.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 34

305 217 Compendium SIDO MUNCUL Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 2,198 2,219 2,528 2,89 3,354 Gross profit ,34 1,213 1,438 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) (1) (2) (1) - - Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (131) (123) (144) (163) (188) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1,255 1, S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets ,92 1,21 1,28 Other assets Total assets 2,82 2,796 2,994 3,12 3,238 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest (1) (2) (2) Shareholders' equity 2,625 2,598 2,789 2,885 2,997 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital 31 (45) (82) (14) (118) Other operating items 35 (69) (7) (113) (147) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (39) (239) (21) (2) (18) Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings Other financing (546) (422) (428) (445) (515) Net cash flow (294) (228) (147) (114) (86) Cash flow at beginning 1,549 1,255 1, Ending cash flow 1,255 1, Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) na na na na na Interest coverage (x) nc nc nc nc nc Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

306 217 Compendium SILOAM INTERNATIONAL HOSPITAL BUY PX: IDR1,1 - *TP: IDR13,1 SILO, Indonesia s largest private hospital chain, is currently enjoying double-digit patient volume growth. We expect this to continue as SILO aims to double operational beds, increase its hospital network from 24 to 5 by 219 and tap patients from the National Health Insurance (JKN) program through its 14 BPJS-provider hospitals. Following its rights issue proceeds of IDR1.3tn, we expect SILO s 22% net gearing to reverse to a net cash position, allowing for 217 net interest expense to come down by IDR24bn post the IDR351bn debt repayment, paving the way for earnings support. Following SILO s market underperformance, valuation looks more reasonable, and we have a IDR13,1 12-month TP based on a 26.4x 217F EV/EBITDA, 33% discount to MIKA s valuation on higher blended occupancy rate and margins. Risk: Longer average length of stay and lower occupancy rate on its new hospitals. Share price performance (IDR) 12, 11, 1, 9, 8, 7, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) SILO IJ Px Last (%) (%) (.1) (5) (2.) (5) (1) (8.2) (1) (1.4) (15) (15) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M SILO IJ relative to JCI Renaldy Effendy (renaldy@bahana.co.id) ext. 366 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 3,341 4,144 5,255 6,722 8,578 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 24.6 (2.) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (84) 16 (1) (759) (77) FCF yield (%) (.8).2 (.1) (7.5) (.8) BVPS (IDR) 1,431 1,59 1,581 2,554 2,753 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Beds occupancy rate (%) Ave. IPD length of stay (days) IPD/OPD admissions (%) No. of beds in operation 2,277 2,841 3,53 4,165 4,975 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 11,75/7,225 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 13,7/8,825 Majority shareholder (%) : LPKR IJ (7.8) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,156/29.2 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 11,677/866 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 7.6/.6 Bloomberg/Reuters code : SILO IJ/SILO.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 36

307 217 Compendium SILOAM INTERNATIONAL HOSPITAL Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 3,341 4,144 5,255 6,722 8,578 Gross profit 952 1,177 1,524 1,959 2,529 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (4) (52) (51) (18) 1 Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) (34) (53) (63) (81) (16) Pre-tax profit Taxes (37) (44) (64) (95) (129) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables ,238 Inventories Fixed assets 1,589 1,553 1,535 2,523 2,614 Other assets Total assets 2,846 2,986 3,131 4,419 4,85 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 1,186 1,246 1,299 1,95 1,266 Minority interest 5 (4) Shareholders' equity 1,655 1,744 1,828 3,321 3,58 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital 18 (88) (129) (139) (198) Other operating items (19) (141) (174) (192) (23) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (56) (298) (35) (1,3) (5) Free cash flow (98) 18 (12) (988) (11) Equity raised/(bought) (26) - - 1,31 - Net borrowings 74 (74) (54) (337) 2 Other financing (186) (64) Net cash flow (235) (12) (47) 15 (65) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na Net gearing (%) nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

308 217 Compendium SOECHI LINES BUY PX: IDR38 - TP: IDR63 SOCI, a leading oil tanker logistics in Indonesia, is set to enjoy strong growth driven by rising oil consumption, in our view. Its business would not be impacted oil price fluctuations, allowing generation of stable earnings on secured long-term contracts. Moreover, Cabotage law should protect the industry from foreign competition. On SOCI s shipyard business, we see promising outlook with huge potential demand resulting from aging fleet replacements as well as fleet expansions. In addition, the regulation which favor local shipyard should ensure domestic players to benefit from rising fleet demand. Valuation-wise, SOCI looks attractive at current cheap 217 PE of 5.3x, while we believe market has yet to price in its attractive shipyard business. We maintain our BUY rating with 12M TP of IDR63, based on 217F PE of 8.8x, c.4% discount to regional peers. Risks are aging tanker fleets and slower expansion on Pertamina s oil distribution. Share price performance (IDR) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) SOCI IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (33.5) (5.) (6.6) (6.) (26.6) (21.6) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M SOCI IJ relative to JCI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 (') 12, 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (1) (2) (3) (4) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (USDmn) EBIT (USDmn) Net profit (USDmn) Bahana/consensus(%) na EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (18.2) (3.8) (48.2) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (31) (54) FCF yield (%) (8) (14) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F General purpose vessels (unit) Medium Range vessels (unit) Aframax tanker & VLCC (unit) Utilization rate (%) IDR/USD 12,385 14, 13,5 13,5 13,5 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 535/35 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 728/633 Majority shareholder (%) : Soechi Group (8) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 7,59/15 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 2,659/197 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 2.3/.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : SOCI IJ/SOCI.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 38

309 217 Compendium SOECHI LINES Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (1) (7) (8) (9) (8) Forex gain/(losses) 1 7 (2) - - Other income/(expense) (1) (1) Pre-tax profit Taxes (2) (1) (2) (2) (2) Minority interest () () () () () Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets Other assets Total assets Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Shareholders' equity Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital 18 (2) (9) (3) (2) Other operating items (23) (12) (14) (17) (17) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (61) (72) Free cash flow (11) (28) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (1) Other financing (27) 9 (11) (5) (1) Net cash flow 18 (1) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

310 217 Compendium SRI REJEKI ISMAN BUY PX: IDR244 - *TP: IDR3 Despite recent IDR appreciation, SRIL, Southeast Asia s largest fully integrated textile player, has managed stable margins backed by its sales mix towards high-yield products: garments (26% of sales) and finishing (21%), although spinning remains its biggest sales contributor at 41%, while weaving (12%) is mostly used internally. Management is confident to achieve 216 revenue growth of 5-8% y-y (Bahana: 8%) and net profit growth of 8-15% y-y (Bahana: 1%) since SRIL s production line is already fully booked. Going into 217, we expect to see stronger growth backed by additional capacity from its new plants, expected to be operational in mid-217. With expected 217 sales growth acceleration to more than 15% y-y, mainly supported by 1% volume expansion, we retain our positive view on SRIL. At our TP of IDR3, or an 5.7x 217F PE, reflecting a 5% discount to its peers. Risk: Stronger IDR. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (5) (1) 3 5 FCF yield (%) (2.2).1 (.3) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) (') 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Spinning volume (bale of yarn) Garment volume (pieces) Finishing volume (yarn) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (5.8) (.3) (4.5) Volume (RHS) SRIL IJ Px Last (%) (%) (15.3) (16.7) (52.5) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M SRIL IJ relative to JCI Renaldy Effendy (renaldy@bahana.co.id) ext. 366 *New, please refer to appendix II (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 417/24 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 49/19 Majority shareholder (%) : Huddleston Indonesia (56.1) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 18,593/43.9 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 4,537/336 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 46.6/3.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : SRIL IJ/SRIL.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 31

311 217 Compendium SRI REJEKI ISMAN Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (28) (34) (39) (42) (45) Forex gain/(losses) (2) (1) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (15) (9) (1) (11) (13) Minority interest () () () () - Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets Other assets Total assets Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Shareholders' equity Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (11) 31 (67) (28) (38) Other operating items (15) (8) (8) (1) (11) Operating cash flow (4) Net capital expenditure (9) (138) (7) (6) (26) Free cash flow (94) 3 (19) Equity raised/(bought) () () Net borrowings (3) (8) Other financing (42) (47) (3) (51) (55) Net cash flow 75 (4) (5) (33) 22 Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

312 217 Compendium SUMMARECON AGUNG BUY PX: IDR1,4 - TP: IDR2,15 SMRA, arguably Indonesia s best property developer in terms of asset price appreciation, is expected to target IDR2.5tn of projects in 4Q16, as it attempts to tap demand post the tax amnesty program. As such, with IDR2.4tn achieved in 1M16, we believe SMRA should be on target to book IDR4.5tn of marketing sales by end-216. Further, we expect management to change its project product mix, focusing more on landed housing sales, contributing to around 6% by 217 (215: 33%; 9M16: 73%). This should improve profitability and cash flow for SMRA in To better reflect this shift in product mix, we alter our landbank calculation as well as raise our ASP assumptions, resulting in SMRA s NAV/share of IDR4,785. At this stage, we think SMRA offers value as our TP of IDR2,15 uses a low- to mid-cycle discount to NAV of 55%. Risks: Unsuccessful project launches, infrastructure project delays. Share price performance (IDR) 2, 1,8 1,6 1,4 1,2 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) SMRA IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) (5) (1) (1) (15) (15) (13.) (2) (2) (25) (24.) (2.7) (2.9) (23.) (25) (3) (28.6) (3) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M SMRA IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II (') 9, 6, 3, Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 5,757 5,624 5,46 5,623 6,252 EBIT (IDRbn) 2,77 1,768 1,132 1,392 1,677 Net profit (IDRbn) 1, Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 21.6 (38.3) (87.6) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (24) (165) (8) (29) (35) FCF yield (%) (14.6) (11.8) (5.7) (2.1) (2.5) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price NAV Calculation 217F Land bank (Ha) 2,39 Total value (IDRbn) 81,247 NAV/share (IDR) 4,785 Discount (%) 55 Adjusted NAV/share (IDR) 2,15 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,97/1,225 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,3/1,275 Majority shareholder (%) : Semarop Agung (25.4) Share outstanding (m)/free float (%) : 14,427/67.7 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 2,197/1, m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 43./3.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : SMRA IJ/SMRA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 312

313 217 Compendium SUMMARECON AGUNG Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 5,757 5,624 5,46 5,623 6,252 Gross profit 3,57 2,97 2,195 2,532 2,869 EBITDA 2,282 1,994 1,412 1,76 2,155 Depreciation EBIT 2,77 1,768 1,132 1,392 1,677 Net interest inc./(expense) (159) (49) (51) (6) (645) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit 1,937 1, ,59 Taxes (319) (318) (283) (315) (35) Minority interest (232) (29) (259) (163) (244) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 1, Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1,771 1,54 1,175 1,394 1,54 S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories 3,341 4,925 5,91 7,92 8,652 Fixed assets 4,387 4,732 5,49 6,141 6,899 Other assets 6,297 7,452 8,247 9,55 1,95 Total assets 15,873 18,758 2,921 24,333 28,227 Interest bearing liabilities 4,382 6,21 6,878 7,378 7,878 Trade payables Other liabilities 5,3 4,965 6,265 8,68 11,478 Total liabilities 9,456 11,228 13,315 16,245 19,56 Minority interest 993 1,517 1,669 1,835 2,19 Shareholders' equity 5,424 6,13 5,937 6,253 6,648 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 2,77 1,768 1,132 1,392 1,677 Depreciation Working capital (1,554) (1,56) (491) (39) (227) Other operating items (1,387) (887) (829) (443) (533) Operating cash flow (659) (398) 92 1,223 1,395 Net capital expenditure (2,285) (1,987) (1,244) (1,648) (1,898) Free cash flow (2,945) (2,385) (1,152) (425) (53) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 1,864 1, Other financing (3) Net cash flow (1,48) (267) (329) Cash flow at beginning 2,819 1,771 1,54 1,175 1,394 Ending cash flow 1,771 1,54 1,175 1,394 1,54 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

314 217 Compendium SURYA CITRA MEDIA BUY PX: IDR2,38 - TP: IDR3,* SCMA, Indonesia s most profitable media company (4+% ROE), is currently underperforming the industry growth, largely due to decline in SCTV s ratings, with RCTI & ANTV gaining. As at end-9m16, management was still unable to bring back its audience share to where it was in 215, leading to negative earnings growth in 3Q16. For 217, management is likely to focus on 2 key aspects: (1) SCTV s turnaround by refreshing program content, and (2) Cost efficiency as management plans to retire costly programs like Torabika Soccer League (Previously ISL) and BPL. Notable margin expansion is on the cards, in our view. As we roll over to 217F, our 12M TP of IDR3,, based on PE of 25x, provides room for upside from current levels. BUY. Risk to our call includes continued decline in weak audience share on intense competition. Share price performance (IDR) 3,5 3,25 3, 2,75 2,5 2,25 2, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) SCMA IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (36.7) (6.5) (23.9) (37.8) (24.3) (4.2) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M SCMA IJ relative to JCI Henry Wibowo (henry.wibowo@bahana.co.id) Ext.3622 (') 8, 6, 4, 2, (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 4,75 4,238 4,467 4,816 5,38 EBIT (IDRbn) 1,928 2,15 1,999 2,321 2,618 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,455 1,524 1,529 1,787 2,31 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Advertising rate growth (%) Prog. cost rate growth (%) Operating exp. to revenue (%) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 3,5/2,22 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,95/3,8 Majority shareholder (%) : Elang Mahkota Teknologi Tbk (6.3) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 14,622/39.6 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 33,922 /2.5 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 33./2.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : SCMA IJ/SCMA.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 314

315 217 Compendium SURYA CITRA MEDIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 4,75 4,238 4,467 4,816 5,38 Gross profit 2,591 2,712 2,773 3,172 3,561 EBITDA 2,38 2,142 2,139 2,475 2,787 Depreciation EBIT 1,928 2,15 1,999 2,321 2,618 Net interest inc./(expense) () Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) (1) () Pre-tax profit 1,927 2,38 2,39 2,382 2,77 Taxes (469) (513) (51) (596) (677) Minority interest (5) (2) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 1,455 1,524 1,529 1,787 2,31 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1, ,9 S-T investments Trade receivables 1,27 1,38 1,455 1,568 1,752 Inventories Fixed assets ,62 1,162 1,362 Other assets 1,1 1, Total assets 4,749 4,566 4,941 5,14 5,731 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 1,262 1,152 1, Minority interest Shareholders' equity 3,437 3,146 3,426 4,9 4,64 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1,928 2,15 1,999 2,321 2,618 Depreciation Working capital (367) (27) (38) (119) (221) Other operating items Operating cash flow 1,198 1,444 1,594 1,821 1,979 Net capital expenditure (193) (35) (24) (254) (369) Free cash flow 1,5 1,139 1,354 1,567 1,61 Equity raised/(bought) - (4) Net borrowings (15) - - Other financing (19) (151) 217 (423) - Net cash flow 21 (796) 28 (74) 186 Cash flow at beginning 1,46 1, Ending cash flow 1, ,6 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na na Net gearing (%) -23-1% Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

316 217 Compendium SURYA SEMESTA INTERNUSA BUY PX: IDR555 - TP: IDR75 Having the largest construction business amongst its peers, SSIA is attempting to diversify its revenue contributors by aggressively acquiring industrial land in Subang, West Java (9M16: 47ha). The plan is supported by the September 216 IDR9bn bond issue, which should allow the Subang launch to move from 219 to 218. SSIA s construction business, NRCA, is involved in 3 project tenders worth IDR2.2tn in 4Q16, meaning possible new contracts of IDR3tn (9M16: IDR1.9tn), assuming a 5% tender achievement of IDR1.1tn. Our 217 contract target is 1% higher on 7 planned hotel launches. Our IDR75 TP is based on a 7% discount to our 217F NAV, above the sector s 68% average due to SSIA s weak land sales (9M16: 1.1ha) and low-margin construction business. However, severe market underperformance reflects value at this stage, hence our BUY rating. Risks: Infrastructure projects and Subang delays. Share price performance (IDR) (') 75 16, 14, 7 12, 65 1, 8, 6 6, 55 4, 2, 5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) (35) (4) (1.5) Volume (RHS) (1.8) (22.5) SSIA IJ Px Last (%) (%) (27.2) (18.3) (35.9) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M SSIA IJ relative to JCI Sanni Satrio Dwi Utomo (sanni@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) (35) (4) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 4,464 4,868 4,651 4,998 5,34 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (39.9) (19.6) (2.) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (47) (29) (67) (14) (17) FCF yield (%) (8) (5) (12) (19) (3) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price NAV calculation NAV Table 217F Land value (IDRbn) 1,617 (Based on 7% discount to NAV) Property value (IDRbn) 1,774 (Based on DCF) Construction business (IDRbn) 1,594 (Based on 14x 217F P/E) Total Value (IDRbn) 4,986 NAV/share (IDR) 75 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 77/52 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,4/65 Majority shareholder (%) : Arman Investment Utama (9.6) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 4,75/71.7 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 2,611/194 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 5.9/.4 Bloomberg/Reuters code : SSIA IJ/SSIA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 316

317 217 Compendium SURYA SEMESTA INTERNUSA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 4,464 4,868 4,651 4,998 5,34 Gross profit 1,54 1,179 1,158 1,26 1,343 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (64) (111) (171) (221) (181) Forex gain/(losses) 6 45 (5) - - Other income/(expense) (34) Pre-tax profit Taxes (158) (172) (13) (14) (149) Minority interest (98) (73) (59) (57) (67) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1, ,729 1, S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 1,688 1,754 1,916 2,74 2,229 Other assets 2,312 2,889 3,111 3,842 4,383 Total assets 5,993 6,464 7,714 8,245 8,754 Interest bearing liabilities 1,279 1,377 2,524 2,425 1,975 Trade payables Other liabilities 1,349 1,333 1,161 1,438 2,24 Total liabilities 2,984 3,126 4,133 4,391 4,578 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,624 2,98 3,18 3,334 3,64 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital 279 (294) (142) Other operating items (857) (297) (225) (337) (315) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (311) (237) (63) (1,12) (1,2) Free cash flow (221) (134) (315) (489) (79) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings ,147 (1) (45) Other financing (352) (289) (26) Net cash flow (52) (249) 86 (454) (32) Cash flow at beginning 1,692 1, ,729 1,276 Ending cash flow 1, ,729 1, Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

318 217 Compendium TAMBANG BUKIT ASAM BUY PX: IDR11,9 - TP: IDR14,13* Heading into 217, Tambang Bukit Asam (PTBA), Indonesia s largest coal producing company in terms of reserves and resources, is aiming to significantly boost production to 43-45mt in We think this is highly possible considering that Kereta Api Indonesia is in the process of completing double-track railway construction that could cut PTBA s coal transporting days by 4-5% to 2-3 days. Despite PTBA s low exports relative to peers, it is still benefiting from China s and Taiwan s greater coal demand. At this stage, we believe that the coal seaborne market will on average improve on a y-y basis, allowing for higher ASPs of IDR686k/ton in 217 and IDR687k/ton in 218. Our BUY rating is mainly driven by PTBA s prospective performance coming into 217; hence, we have a DCF-based 12M TP of IDR14,13 (WACC: 13.2%; TG: 1%). Risks to our call: Changes in China s policy driving the market to oversupply conditions, and a stronger IDR. Share price performance (IDR) 14, 11, 8, 5, 2, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) PTBA IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M PTBA IJ relative to JCI Andrew Hotama (andrew.franklin@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II 85.2 (') 8, 6, 4, 2, Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 13,78 13,734 14,596 16,464 19,246 EBIT (IDRbn) 2,126 2,416 1,667 2,773 3,378 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,861 2,36 1,325 2,157 2,67 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) ,131 EPS growth (%) (34.9) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (258) FCF yield (%) (2.2) BVPS (IDR) 3,649 3,982 4,357 4,816 5,28 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F sales volume (mt) Newcastle spot price (USD/ton) Avg. selling price (IDR/ton) 726,915 79, , ,98 687,353 Stripping ratio (x) Avg. exchange rate (IDR/1USD) 11,875 13,494 13,5 13,5 13,5 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 13,775/4,15 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 14,9/13,6 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (65.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 2,34/35 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 27,419/2,16 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 48.2/3.6 Bloomberg/Reuters code : PTBA IJ /PTBA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 318

319 217 Compendium TAMBANG BUKIT ASAM Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 13,78 13,734 14,596 16,464 19,246 Gross profit 3,922 4,14 3,56 4,782 5,688 EBITDA 2,339 2,815 2,96 3,322 4,28 Depreciation EBIT 2,126 2,416 1,667 2,773 3,378 Net interest inc./(expense) (76) (113) (157) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit 2,414 2,664 1,734 2,821 3,41 Taxes (55) (627) (47) (663) (81) Minority interest (3) (1) (1) (2) (2) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 1,861 2,36 1,325 2,157 2,67 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 4,39 3,115 2,852 2,498 2,51 S-T investments Trade receivables 1,439 1,596 1,493 1,999 1,83 Inventories 1,33 1,233 1,78 1,49 1,319 Fixed assets 6,746 8,582 9,994 11,812 13,825 Other assets 1,62 2,368 2,431 2,67 3,183 Total assets 14,861 16,894 17,849 2,325 22,667 Interest bearing liabilities 2,255 2,22 2,75 2,514 2,939 Trade payables 546 1, ,274 1,142 Other liabilities 3,535 4,438 4,671 5,318 6,32 Total liabilities 6,336 7,66 7,685 9,16 1,383 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 8,48 9,175 1,4 11,97 12,164 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 2,126 2,416 1,667 2,773 3,378 Depreciation Working capital (328) 323 Other operating items (48) 38 (39) (342) (38) Operating cash flow 2,15 3,247 1,866 2,652 3,971 Net capital expenditure (2,745) (2,664) (1,733) (2,343) (2,842) Free cash flow (595) ,129 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 2,178 (233) Other financing (887) (1,273) (449) (1,12) (1,542) Net cash flow 695 (924) (263) (354) 12 Cash flow at beginning 3,344 4,39 3,115 2,852 2,498 Ending cash flow 4,39 3,115 2,852 2,498 2,51 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na Net gearing (%) nc nc nc Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

320 217 Compendium TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA BUY PX: IDR3,94- TP: IDR5, Given its 5% domestic cellular market share through 65%-owned Telkomsel (35%-owned by Singtel), TLKM should benefit from higher ARPUs on data migration as we expect the Indonesian smartphone subscriber portion to rise from 45% in 6M16 to 9% in 22. Despite competition risks from outer Java areas, we believe TLKM will still be able to book solid revenue growth on a sustainable EBITDA margin. TLKM should also benefit from the continued expansion of its IndiHome triple-play business (cable, internet and fixed line), reaching 217F subscribers of 3mn, allowing for additional revenue of IDR11tn. At this stage, we expect continued outperformance for TLKM on strong data growth and stable EBITDA margins. Our DCF-based TP of IDR5, reflects a 217F EV/EBITDA of 11.x, around 3% premium to regional peers. Risks to our call: Lower-than-expected EBITDA margins on tougher-than-expected competition. Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 89,696 12,47 116,758 13, ,994 EBIT (IDRbn) 28,542 32,881 41,686 47,2 52,956 Net profit (IDRbn) 14,471 15,489 2,59 22,853 25,844 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) ,64 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, (') 4, 3, 2, 1, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Subscribers ( ) 14, ,64 166,378 17, ,8 Net additional ( ) 9,73 12,55 13,738 4,159 4,263 ARPU (IDR /month) ,5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) TLKM IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) 14. (2.8) (2.8) (3.7) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M TLKM IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext. 368 *New, please refer to appendix II (1) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 4,57/2,837 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 5,2/3,2 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (51.2) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,8/48.8 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 397,152/29,456 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 384.6/28.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : TLKM IJ/TLKM.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 32

321 217 Compendium TELEKOMUNIKASI INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 89,696 12,47 116,758 13, ,994 Gross profit EBITDA 45,673 51,415 6,6 67,486 75,27 Depreciation 17,131 18,534 18,373 2,286 22,314 EBIT 28,542 32,881 41,686 47,2 52,956 Net interest inc./(expense) (576) (1,74) (1,67) (1,76) (85) Forex gain/(losses) (14) (46) (81) - - Other income/(expense) 661 (419) (419) (419) (419) Pre-tax profit 28,613 31,342 4,119 45,75 51,688 Taxes (7,339) (8,25) (1,3) (11,426) (12,922) Minority interest (6,83) (7,828) (1,3) (11,426) (12,922) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 14,471 15,489 2,59 22,853 25,844 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 17,672 28,117 27,37 27,87 3,531 S-T investments 2,797 2,818 3,269 3,652 4,6 Trade receivables 6,997 7,517 14,595 16,32 18,124 Inventories Fixed assets 94,89 13,7 113,75 123, ,622 Other assets 19,73 23,493 24,22 27,53 3,77 Total assets 141, , , , ,181 Interest bearing liabilities 23,452 34,612 33,612 32,612 31,612 Trade payables 12,362 13,994 13,698 14,649 15,651 Other liabilities 2,16 24,139 28,495 31,828 35,386 Total liabilities 55,83 72,745 75,84 79,89 82,648 Minority interest 18,271 18,292 21,277 23,676 26,314 Shareholders' equity 67,721 75,136 86,416 96,228 17,219 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 28,542 32,881 41,686 47,2 52,956 Depreciation 17,131 18,534 18,373 2,286 22,314 Working capital (174) 1,58 (7,472) (824) (894) Other operating items (14,389) (18,694) (19,194) (24,921) (27,662) Operating cash flow 31,11 33,779 33,394 41,742 46,714 Net capital expenditure (24,667) (26,41) (27,5) (29,37) (3,59) Free cash flow 6,443 7,378 5,894 12,75 16,125 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 3,196 11,16 (1,) (1,) (1,) Other financing (7,239) (8,129) (5,974) (1,871) (12,464) Net cash flow 2,976 1,445 (1,8) 833 2,661 Cash balances, beginning 14,696 17,672 28,117 27,37 27,87 Ending cash 17,672 28,117 27,37 27,87 3,531 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

322 217 Compendium TEMPO SCAN PACIFIC REDUCE* PX: IDR2, - *TP: IDR1,7 TSPC, one of Indonesia s largest listed pharmaceutical companies, is experiencing heavy burden on advertising and promotion spending to boost its pharmaceutical and nutrition product variants. As of 9M16, A&P spending stood at 15% of sales, up from 13.7% in 9M15. Unfortunately, the surge in A&P (23% y-y) was not accompanied by stronger revenue growth (13% y-y), resulting in margin pressure. Going forward, we are of the view that its new nutrition segment, under Vidoran brand could be one of TSPC s long-term growth drivers aside from its pharmaceutical segment, which is supported by the government s national health care insurance program (JKN). With the company s operating challenges, we downgrade TSPC to REDUCE with TP a of IDR1,7 based on 5-year average historical PE of 15.5x 217F PE, reflecting a 62% discount to the sector. Upside risk is higher-than-expected nutrition growth. Share price performance (IDR) 2,5 2,3 2,1 1,9 1,7 1,5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) TSPC IJ Px Last (%) (%) (2) (4) (6) (8).8 (3.8) (5.7) (6.5) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M TSPC IJ relative to JCI Renaldy Effendy (renaldy@bahana.co.id) ext. 366 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, (2) (4) (6) (8) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 7,512 8,181 8,962 9,841 1,87 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (8.5) (1.1) (2.7) (3.1) (1.3) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) , 1,11 1,218 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Indo pharma. sales (USDbn) Sales growth (%) Gross margin (%) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,38/1,625 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,9/2, Majority shareholder (%) : Bogamulia Nagadi (78.3) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 4,5/21.7 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 9,/668 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) :.6/.4 Bloomberg/Reuters code : TSPC IJ/TSPC.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 322

323 217 Compendium TEMPO SCAN PACIFIC Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 7,512 8,181 8,962 9,841 1,87 Gross profit 2,94 3,118 3,381 3,636 3,931 EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) 28 (14) (11) (9) (7) Pre-tax profit Taxes (153) (178) (174) (169) (167) Minority interest (5) (7) (8) (1) (11) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1,46 1,736 1,268 1, S-T investments Trade receivables ,12 1,23 1,351 Inventories 1,56 1,233 1,361 1,513 1,677 Fixed assets 1,554 1,617 1,865 2,85 2,277 Other assets ,29 Total assets 5,61 6,285 6,242 6,842 7,451 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables 818 1,3 1,63 1,182 1,31 Other liabilities Total liabilities 1,527 1,948 1,687 1,789 1,96 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 4,37 4,289 4,51 4,994 5,48 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (158) (133) (179) (137) (154) Other operating items (2) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (4) (425) (425) (425) (425) Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (96) (2) (17) (14) (11) Other financing (417) 48 (652) (48) (45) Net cash flow (332) 276 (468) (171) (16) Cash flow at beginning 1,792 1,46 1,736 1,268 1,97 Ending cash flow 1,46 1,736 1,268 1, Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na na Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

324 TIMAH BUY* PX: IDR1,25 TP: IDR1,46* We believe the tin price uptrend will continue to benefit the world s largest tin exporter, TINS; we forecast tin prices of USD21,179/t and USD21,62/t in 217F and 218F respectively. Moreover, we are of the view that numerous illegal mining shutdowns by the local government have helped reduce the tin surplus, likely supporting prices ahead. We target TINS 217F net profit to reach IDR378bn, +36% y-y, backed by higher tin prices and increased efficiencies through the application of the new borehole mining technology allowing for smaller waste from refined tin production. In the next 5 years, earnings support should stem from a higher non-tin segment portion of 3% (current: 5%). Given our new DCF-based (WACC: 12%; LTG: 1.5%) TP of IDR1,46/ share, showing a 17% upside potential, TINS is now raised from Reduce to BUY. Risks to our call: tin mining not being strictly regulated, leading to a rise in illegal activities, and global tin production far exceeding demand. Share price performance (IDR) 1,55 14, 1,4 12, 1,25 1, 1,1 8, 95 6, , 5 2, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) TINS IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M TINS IJ relative to JCI Andrew Hotama (andrew.franklin@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II (') Financial highlights* 217 Compendium Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 7,518 6,874 6,84 7,863 7,961 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 1.4 (84.9) (7.9) 34.5 (23.) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (88.8) (53.6) FCF yield (%) (7.1) (4.3) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Refined tin sales voume (mt) 26,97 3,87 28, 29, 3, Refined tin ASP (USD/mt) 21,686 16,186 18,56 21,179 21,62 Oil price (USD/barrel) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,285/451 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 85/51 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (65.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 7,448/35. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 9,31/685 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 28.4/2.1 Bloomberg/Reuters code : TINS IJ/TINS.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 324

325 217 Compendium TIMAH Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 7,518 6,874 6,84 7,863 7,961 Gross profit 1, ,137 1,6 EBITDA 1, Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (95) (121) (19) (1) (96) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit 1, Taxes (352) (67) (5) (24) (157) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables 1, Inventories 3,384 3,12 3,51 3,372 3,487 Fixed assets 3,5 3,522 3,729 3,521 3,264 Other assets 1,624 1,674 1,655 1,751 1,892 Total assets 9,844 9,28 9,263 9,735 1,114 Interest bearing liabilities 2,334 2,115 1,45 1,35 1,3 Trade payables Other liabilities 2,159 1,211 1,64 1,68 1,632 Total liabilities 5,344 3,99 3,771 3,75 3,752 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 4,5 5,371 5,492 5,985 6,362 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (997) 1, (318) (95) Other operating items (36) (978) 418 (215) (183) Operating cash flow (3) 619 1, Net capital expenditure (631) (1,18) (681) (247) (224) Free cash flow (661) (399) Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 979 (22) (665) (1) (5) Other financing (76) Net cash flow (267) 151 (156) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

326 217 Compendium TIPHONE MOBILE INDONESIA BUY PX: IDR725 - TP: IDR88* 28A TELE, the largest Telkomsel (TSEL) pre-paid card and voucher distributor, should continue to lead the traditional market segment. Recent cluster rearrangement and utilization of machine-to-machine (M2M) distribution system should not only boost revenue, but also create a more sustainable revenue stream, despite lower margins. Capitalizing on GO-Jek s wide scope (+2k drivers in 1 cities), TELE collaborates with drivers to market & sell its vouchers. Additional potential growth would likely stem from TSEL s handset, in particular BB Merah Putih bundling programs in the near future. Looking ahead, TELE should benefit from sustainable growth on the back of rising voucher contribution due to higher market share and solid TSEL s performance. We maintain our BUY rating on TELE with DCF-based TP of IDR88 reflecting 217F PE of 11.3x, supported by its strong growth outlook. Risk: Slow purchasing power recovery. Share price performance Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 14,59 22,4 26,697 3,831 33,97 EBIT (IDRbn) ,89 Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (139) (128) (65) (12) 18 FCF yield (%) (19.1) (17.7) (9.) (1.7) 2.4 BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Vouchers and starter kit (IDRbn) 8,799 14,65 2,629 24,52 26,395 Cellphones (IDRbn) 5,426 7,432 6,66 6,777 7,572 Telkomsel market share (%) Richard Danusaputra (richard@bahana.co.id) ext. 368 *New, please refer to appendix II Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 975/495 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,16/9 Majority shareholder (%) : Upaya Cipta Sejahtera (38.8) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 7,124/23. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 5,165/383 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 7.3/.6 Bloomberg/Reuters code : TELE IJ/TELE.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 326

327 217 Compendium TIPHONE MOBILE INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 14,59 22,4 26,697 3,831 33,97 Gross profit 819 1,28 1,456 1,652 1,835 EBITDA ,32 1,141 Depreciation EBIT ,9 Net interest inc./(expense) (122) (262) (369) (357) (365) Forex gain/(losses) 1 (13) (34) - - Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 638 1, S-T investments 1,642 2,274 2,926 3,294 3,63 Trade receivables Inventories 949 1,894 2,282 2,558 2,729 Fixed assets Other assets 1,261 1,47 1,781 2,56 2,266 Total assets 5,18 7,129 7,732 8,426 9,123 Interest bearing liabilities 1,753 3,456 3,477 3,499 3,523 Trade payables ,56 Other liabilities Total liabilities 2,518 4,313 4,516 4,72 4,867 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,499 2,814 3,215 3,75 4,255 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT ,89 Depreciation Working capital (1,32) (1,298) (896) (634) (512) Other operating items (199) (334) (433) (428) (456) Operating cash flow (969) (852) (41) (29) 173 Net capital expenditure (7) (5) (62) (58) (48) Free cash flow (976) (92) (463) (87) 125 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 277 1, Other financing 37 (277) (174) (174) (164) Net cash flow (616) (239) (16) Cash at beginning , Ending cash balance 638 1, Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

328 217 Compendium TOTAL BANGUN PERSADA BUY PX: IDR76 - *TP: IDR1,125 TOTL, the smallest construction player under our coverage, is one of the most renowned private contractors for high-rise buildings. We expect TOTL, which has solid project execution, to continue booking strong new contracts (217F: IDR4tn, +33% y-y). In 217, TOTL plans to focus on office and commercial projects, where it has abundant experience, such as in the current development of Living World, Pekan Baru and Menara Astra, Jakarta. Other growth potential should stem from demand in the residential sector (around 52% of TOTL s 2Q16 revenue) on an economic turnaround in 217. On valuation, our 12M TP of IDR1,125 is based on a 217F PE of 15x, a 25% discount to the sector due to TOTL s smaller market cap. Retain BUY on TOTL s proven track record and management team as well as a solid dividend yield (217F: 5.3%). Risk to our call include IDR depreciation causing high costs and project delays. Share price performance (IDR) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) TOTL IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) 1.1 (8.5) (8.9) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 2.7 TOTL IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext.368 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (1) (2) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 2,16 2,266 2,515 3,142 3,926 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (15.7) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Carried over (IDRbn) 4,242 5,76 5,978 6,476 7,349 New contracts (IDRbn) 3,57 2,177 3, 4, 4,5 New contracts growth (%) 82.5 (39.) Total order books (IDRbn) 7,812 7,883 8,978 1,476 11,849 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 92/545 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,34/94 Majority shareholder (%) : Total Inti Persada (56.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 3,41/34.8 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 2,592/192 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 2.8/.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : TOTL IJ/TOTL.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 328

329 217 Compendium TOTAL BANGUN PERSADA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 2,16 2,266 2,515 3,142 3,926 Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) (3) Other income/(expense) 3 (33) (25) Pre-tax profit Taxes (77) (6) (83) (14) (13) Minority interest () () () () () Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets Other assets 1,348 1,486 1,56 1,66 1,724 Total assets 2,484 2,846 2,926 3,228 3,564 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities 1,615 1,785 1,827 1,964 2,98 Total liabilities 1,685 1,98 1,987 2,167 2,352 Minority interest Shareholders' equity ,43 1,194 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (1) (146) (176) Other operating items (65) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (3) (131) (51) (37) (38) Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (93) 4 (4) - - Other financing (284) (159) (123) (12) (132) Net cash flow Cash balances, beginning Ending cash Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na na Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

330 217 Compendium TOWER BERSAMA INFRASTRUCTURE REDUCE PX: IDR5,75 - TP: IDR5,1* As one of Indonesia s largest independent tower provider, with 13,67 towers and 2,969 tenants (as of 1H16) and a tenancy ratio of 1.65x, TBIG, due to its limited financial flexibility is planning to focus on organic growth, going forward. However, this strategy has limited prospect, in our view as operators have the propensity to avoid using third-party tower providers for most of their tower requirements. On the EBITDA front, TBIG may see limited margin improvement due to our expectation of relatively flat ASP in 217F on subdued inflation outlook. On valuation we maintain our REDUCE rating given 217F EV/EBITDA of 13.7x, a 2% premium to its local peers and limited growth potential. Our 12M TP of IDR5,1 is based on 217F EV/EBITDA of 12.2x. Upside risks: Faster-than-expected growth in smartphone penetration, leading to robust 4G network demand from operators. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 3,37 3,421 3,85 4,169 4,529 EBIT (IDRbn) 2,55 2,661 2,972 3,257 3,537 Net profit (IDRbn) 1,31 1,43 1,374 1,559 1,694 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) (3.9) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (216) 24 (162) (53) (45) FCF yield (%) (3.8).4 (2.8) (.9) (.8) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 7, 6,5 6, 5,5 (') 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ASP (IDR mn) Tower sites (unit) 11,82 12,389 13,38 14,384 15,39 Collocation (x) , 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) (15.6) (2.6) Volume (RHS) TBIG IJ Px Last (%) (%) 3.2 (22.4) (7.9) (29.8) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M TBIG IJ relative to JCI Gilang Purnama (gilang.purnama@bahana.co.id) ext. 361 *New, please refer to appendix II 1 (1) (2) (3) (4) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 7,/5,275 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 7,2/4,55 Majority shareholder (%) : Wahana Anugerah Sejahtera (21.1) Share outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 4,797/5.9 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 27,58/2,46 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 15.8/1.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : TBIG IJ/TBIG.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 33

331 217 Compendium TOWER BERSAMA INFRASTRUCTURE Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 3,37 3,421 3,85 4,169 4,529 Gross profit 2,797 2,972 3,319 3,64 3,954 EBITDA 2,717 2,911 3,237 3,546 3,853 Depreciation EBIT 2,55 2,661 2,972 3,257 3,537 Net interest inc./(expense) (972) (1,465) (1,523) (1,582) (1,61) Forex gain/(losses) (192) (45) Other income/(expense) 89 (61) (7) (7) (7) Pre-tax profit 1,431 1,89 1,452 1,669 1,921 Taxes (58) 356 (58) (67) (192) Minority interest (71) (15) (2) (43) (34) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 1,31 1,43 1,374 1,559 1,694 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 15,515 16,654 18,284 19,92 21,649 Other assets 4,722 5,6 5,662 6,149 6,631 Total assets 22,34 22,799 25,56 27,731 3,54 Interest bearing liabilities 16,62 18,48 19,68 21,23 21,78 Trade payables Other liabilities 1,663 2,536 2,851 3,124 3,395 Total liabilities 17,93 21,29 22,834 24,687 25,538 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 3,981 1,53 2,628 2,996 4,471 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 2,55 2,661 2,972 3,257 3,537 Depreciation Working capital 69 1 (411) (11) (19) Other operating items (2,18) (1,842) (2,131) (2,211) (2,382) Operating cash flow 678 1, ,225 1,361 Net capital expenditure (1,714) (966) (1,469) (1,48) (1,578) Free cash flow (1,36) 114 (775) (255) (217) Equity raised/(bought) (555) (669) Net borrowings 3,81 3,639 1,337 1, Other financing (1,237) (3,688) (524) (1,442) (468) Net cash flow 253 (64) 38 (17) (7) Cash balances, beginning Ending cash Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) , Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

332 217 Compendium TUNAS BARU LAMPUNG BUY *PX: IDR92 - TP: IDR1,475 TBLA, the beneficiary of a 4mn-ton structural deficit within the domestic sugar industry, should see strong profit growth to IDR853bn, +39% y-y, backed by the commencement of its sugar mill in 217. TBLA should benefit from industry inefficiency with 217F production cost of only IDR4,42/kg, 5% lower than the average farmer price of IDR8,79/ kg, which is used as the government s the sugar floor price. At this stage, we expect greater sustainability from TBLA s sugar refinery business based on recent government discussions to prohibit importers lacking sugar plantations from obtaining import permits and plans to allow refined sugar to be sold at the retail level. Based on a strong 68% EPS CAGR in F we have an SOTPbased TP of IDR1,475, reflecting 6% upside potential. Risks include delays in the completion of TBLA s sugar mills, as well as policy risks stemming from lower the sugar import quota and sugar price ceiling. Share price performance (IDR) (') 1,2 4, 35, 1, 3, 25, 8 2, 15, 6 1, 5, 4 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) TBLA IJ Px Last (%) (%) (2) (1.) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M 44.7 TBLA IJ relative to JCI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 *New, please refer to appendix II (2) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 6,338 5,331 6,69 7,444 8,293 EBIT (IDRbn) ,258 1,35 Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/consensus(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 414 (58) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (92.2) (118.4) (32.5) FCF yield (%) (1.) (12.9) (3.5) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F FFB production (k tons) CPO production (k tons) CPO price (USD/ton) Sugar plantation (ha) 1,133 3,913 7,326 11,326 14,424 ASP Sugar (IDR/kg) , 1, 1, Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,15/48 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,485/563 Majority shareholder (%) : Budi Delta Swakarya (27.8) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 5,342/45.6 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 4,872/361 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 6./.45 Bloomberg/Reuters code : TBLA IJ/TBLA.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 332

333 217 Compendium TUNAS BARU LAMPUNG Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 6,338 5,331 6,69 7,444 8,293 Gross profit 1,293 1,17 1,452 2,39 2,292 EBITDA 1, ,165 1,511 1,633 Depreciation 27 (6) EBIT ,258 1,35 Net interest inc./(expense) (21) (219) (266) (244) (232) Forex gain/(losses) (15) (165) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit ,71 1,18 Taxes (126) (62) (154) (214) (236) Minority interest (3) (4) (4) (4) (4) Extraordinary gain/(losses) () () Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables ,17 1,145 1,276 Inventories 956 1,146 1,289 1,351 1,5 Fixed assets 2,843 4,442 5,338 5,24 5,38 Other assets 2,288 2,61 2,544 2,988 3,51 Total assets 7,328 9,293 1,447 11,32 11,719 Interest bearing liabilities 3,194 4,69 4,89 4,59 4,39 Trade payables Other liabilities 1,388 1,386 1,748 2,3 2,243 Total liabilities 4,875 6,46 7,2 6,994 7,78 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,435 2,866 3,41 4,8 4,68 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT ,258 1,35 Depreciation 27 (6) Working capital (38) () (111) (183) (268) Other operating items (214) (517) 115 (257) (244) Operating cash flow ,169 1,7 1,12 Net capital expenditure (999) (713) (1,342) (481) (487) Free cash flow (455) (632) (174) Equity raised/(bought) 289 (5) Net borrowings (299) (2) Other financing (67) 161 (73) (241) (337) Net cash flow (128) (116) (48) 5 96 Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

334 217 Compendium UNILEVER INDONESIA BUY PX: IDR4,45 - TP: IDR45,* In 217, helped by low inflation outlook and improved purchasing power, UNVR, Indonesia s largest non-tobacco FMCG company, should see solid earnings growth, relatively at par with market performance. On a more negative side, however, we note a growing concern on greater competition in UNVR s ice cream division (some 15% of UNVR s sales with 7% market share). Note that Ezaki Glico and Wings group have started ice cream production in 4Q16. Compounding the problem will be ICBP s plan to also invest heavily in ice cream in 217. On valuation, UNVR has been de-rated to 43.1x 217F PER, mainly on fund-outflows and concerns on intense ice-cream competition, which we believe are overdone. Thus, we retain BUY with IDR45, TP, based on a 217F PE of 48x. Risk to our call includes margin pressure on continued weaker IDR and higher petroleum prices. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 34,512 36,484 39,675 44,251 48,956 EBIT (IDRbn) 7,779 7,944 8,837 9,672 1,716 Net profit (IDRbn) 5,739 5,852 6,514 7,162 7,965 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) ,44 EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) ,1 1,216 FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 215 closing price Share price performance (IDR) 5, 45, 4, 35, (') 8, 6, 4, 2, Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales growth (%) Gross margin (%) , 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) UNVR IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) (1) (15) (2) (4.2) (4.7) (7.3) (15.7) (16.7) (7.1) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M UNVR IJ relative to JCI Michael W Setjoadi (michael@bahana.co.id) ext. 362 *New, please refer to appendix II (5) (1) (15) (2) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 47,8/34,15 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 52,7/3,7 Majority shareholder (%) : Unilever Indonesia Holding (85.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 7,63/15. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 38,634/22,891 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 84.5/6.3 Bloomberg/Reuters code : UNVR IJ/UNVR.JK, Reuter; based on 23 November 215 closing price 334

335 217 Compendium UNILEVER INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 34,512 36,484 39,675 44,251 48,956 Gross profit 17,99 18,649 2,537 22,682 25,19 EBITDA 7,923 8,316 9,158 1,53 11,142 Depreciation EBIT 7,779 7,944 8,837 9,672 1,716 Net interest inc./(expense) (86) (11) (112) (8) (48) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) (17) (4) (5) (5) (6) Pre-tax profit 7,677 7,829 8,72 9,587 1,662 Taxes (1,938) (1,978) (2,26) (2,426) (2,698) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 5,739 5,852 6,514 7,162 7,965 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables 2,896 3,245 3,173 3,539 3,916 Inventories 2,326 2,298 2,412 2,896 3,21 Fixed assets 7,348 8,321 1, 11,119 12,493 Other assets 838 1, Total assets 14,281 15,73 17,22 18,86 2,817 Interest bearing liabilities 1,25 1,7 1,4 1, 6 Trade payables 4,632 4,842 4,614 5,82 5,488 Other liabilities 3,8 4,36 5,399 6,365 7,495 Total liabilities 9,682 1,93 11,413 12,447 13,583 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 4,599 4,827 5,69 6,359 7,234 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 7,779 7,944 8,837 9,672 1,716 Depreciation Working capital 314 (17) 278 (161) (62) Other operating items Operating cash flow 8,237 8,146 9,436 9,892 11,79 Net capital expenditure (1,126) (1,345) (2,) (1,5) (1,8) Free cash flow 7,111 6,81 7,436 8,392 9,279 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (3) (4) (4) Other financing (6,786) (7,482) (6,833) (8,64) (8,966) Net cash flow 598 (231) 33 (73) (87) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) nc Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

336 217 Compendium UNITED TRACTORS BUY* PX: IDR21,9 - TP: IDR26,5 UNTR, Indonesia s largest heavy equipment and mining contracting company, should experience an earnings recovery on the improved coal price outlook. We expect Pama, UNTR s mining contracting subsidiary, to book improved volumes and mining fees as coal prices reach USD8/ton (+41.8% y-y). This upward price trend should also benefit UNTR s coal business unit. On the heavy equipment front, we expect improved 217 heavy equipment sales of 2.3k units, +9% y-y, on the back of the improved mining and solid construction segments. UNTR will also likely benefit from several new business initiatives such as the power plants, gold mining and construction segments. Thus, we maintain our BUY rating with our SOTP-based TP of IDR26,5, and expect its ytd market underperformance to reverse ahead. Risks to our call: Lower coal prices and a stronger IDR. Share price performance (IDR) 24, 21,6 19,2 16,8 14,4 12, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) UNTR IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M UNTR IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext. 368 *New, please refer to appendix II 16.6 (') 2, 15, 1, 5, Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 53,142 49,347 44,611 53,237 55,585 EBIT (IDRbn) 8,866 8,586 6,341 7,85 8,26 Net profit (IDRbn) 5,369 3,853 4,695 6,22 6,47 Bahana/consensus(%) EPS (IDR) 1,439 1,33 1,259 1,614 1,718 EPS growth (%) 11.1 (28.2) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) 1,81 1,112 1,358 1,362 1,815 FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) 9,828 1,166 1,733 11,844 12,917 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Komatsu 3,513 2,124 2,26 2,393 2,573 Coal extraction (mn tons) Ovr. Removal (mn bcm) Coal mines (mn tons) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 23,975/12,55 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 26,575/1,4 Majority shareholder (%) : Astra International (59.5) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 3,73/4.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 81,69/6,59 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 95./7. Bloomberg/Reuters code : UNTR IJ/UNTR.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 336

337 217 Compendium UNITED TRACTORS Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 53,142 49,347 44,611 53,237 55,585 Gross profit 12,7 11,72 8,884 1,885 11,429 EBITDA 13,34 12,585 1,93 11,52 11,886 Depreciation 4,169 3,999 3,752 3,651 3,626 EBIT 8,866 8,586 6,341 7,85 8,26 Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) (253) - - Other income/(expense) (2,44) (4,75) Pre-tax profit 6,622 4,193 6,356 8,13 8,649 Taxes (1,782) (1,4) (1,589) (2,33) (2,162) Minority interest 53 1,61 (72) (76) (79) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 5,369 3,853 4,695 6,22 6,47 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1,6 15,413 17,319 2,361 24,719 S-T investments 1,856 2,297 2,297 2,297 2,297 Trade receivables 13,587 12,17 11,37 13,858 14,85 Inventories 7,77 8,328 8,1 9,834 1,495 Fixed assets 22,774 17,658 16,46 15,255 14,129 Other assets 4,245 5,849 5,657 6,246 6,46 Total assets 6,292 61,715 61,86 67,851 72,896 Interest bearing liabilities 3,432 2,676 2,95 1,936 1,932 Trade payables 12,624 13,887 11,746 14,214 15,122 Other liabilities 5,659 5,92 5,86 6,42 6,17 Total liabilities 21,715 22,465 19,647 22,192 23,161 Minority interest 1,917 1,331 1,43 1,478 1,558 Shareholders' equity 36,66 37,92 4,37 44,181 48,177 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 8,866 8,586 6,341 7,85 8,26 Depreciation 4,169 3,999 3,752 3,651 3,626 Working capital (1,427) 2,482 (1,146) (1,581) (681) Other operating items (5,93) (7,39) (1,383) (2,342) (1,934) Operating cash flow 6,515 8,28 7,564 7,578 9,271 Net capital expenditure (2,483) (3,878) (2,5) (2,5) (2,5) Free cash flow 4,32 4,149 5,64 5,78 6,771 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (1,57) (756) (581) (159) (4) Other financing (41) 1,96 (2,578) (1,878) (2,49) Net cash flow 2,124 5,354 1,95 3,42 4,358 Cash balances, beginning 7,936 1,6 15,413 17,319 2,361 Ending cash 1,6 15,413 17,319 2,361 24,719 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na na Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

338 217 Compendium VALE INDONESIA BUY PX: IDR3,37- TP: IDR4,* INCO, Indonesia s largest metal play by market cap, should see higher nickel prices on policies from the Philippines and Indonesia. With selling prices contracted at 78% of spot, and COGS at USD6,573/ton, INCO should translate price gains north of USD9,/ton into pre-tax profit. With existing volume guidance and profit/ton at USD44, INCO s cash flows is likely to be insufficient to expand capacity. Thus, INCO s current focus is to cut costs by investing in its electric furnace, kiln and transformers. Capacity expansion would require INCO to build an 8km road from Sorowako to Bahodopi, to increase the quality of ore feed into its smelter. This could raise yields by 1-15% in the medium term. INCO is a BUY largely due to nickel price expectations, which we expect to average USD12,5/ton in 217 (216F: USD9,85), reflecting 34.6% 217F revenue growth. Our IDR4, TP is based on a DCF valuation (WACC: 5.1%). Risk: Lower nickel prices. Share price performance (IDR) 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) INCO IJ Px Last (%) (%) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M INCO IJ relative to JCI Andrew Hotama (andrew.franklin@bahana.co.id) ext *New, please refer to appendix II 83.5 (') 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (USDm) 1, EBIT (USDm) Net profit (USDm) Bahana/consensus (%) - - na EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 46.1 (67.2) (93.7) 4, EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) FCF yield (%) BVPS (IDR) 2,134 2,491 2,328 2,453 2,579 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F sales volume (mt) 79,477 82,97 75, 8, 9, Avg. selling price (USD/ton) 13,61 9,526 7,722 9,75 9,75 Production cost (USD/ton) 8,942 7,648 6,573 6,449 6,196 Avg. exchange rate 11,875 13,494 13,5 13,5 13,5 Nickel ASP (USD/ton) 15,531 9,94 9,85 12,5 12,5 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 3,55/1,34 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 2,41/1,14 Majority shareholder (%) : VALE SA (58.73) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 9,936/2.5 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 33,485/2,462 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 47.1/3.5 Bloomberg/Reuters code : INCO IJ /INCO.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 338

339 217 Compendium VALE INDONESIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1, Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (13) (1) (8) (5) (3) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (65) (19) (1) (48) (62) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets 1,69 1,63 1,524 1,462 1,41 Other assets Total assets 2,334 2,289 2,29 2,318 2,387 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Shareholders' equity 1,785 1,834 1,87 1,95 2,5 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital (12) (3) (6) Other operating items (36) (114) (9) (53) (65) Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (76) (114) (5) (7) (75) Free cash flow Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings (37) (37) (34) (38) (38) Other financing (18) (89) (3) (2) (87) Net cash flow 12 (16) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) nc nc nc nc nc Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

340 217 Compendium VISI MEDIA ASIA REDUCE PX: IDR252 - TP: IDR23 VIVA, Indonesia s third largest media company, focusing mainly on TV broadcasting and online news portal, has managed to succesfully turnaround its TV channel ANTV from being No.5-6 in 213 to No.2-3 TV station now by altering its content focus from variety shows to popular Indian dramas. Through 2 national FTA TV stations ANTV (focusing on Indian dramas) and TV One (news channel), Viva currently has 18.6% TV audience share (All-Time) as at end-1m16. Management s next priority will be to de-leverage VIVA s balance sheet (>16% net gearing) and refinance its existing USD23mn debt. At this stage, we rate VIVA a REDUCE given its weak balance sheet and low clarity on its debt-refinancing plan. The USD debt exposure (at 2% IRR) could also put pressure on its bottom line with lofty interest expense and FX loss. Upside risk: Successful debt refinancing. Share price performance (IDR) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) VIVA IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (19.9) (5.7) (12.) (42.6) (28.1) (21.2) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M VIVA IJ relative to JCI Henry Wibowo (henry.wibowo@bahana.co.id) Ext.3622 (') 4, 3, 2, 1, (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 2,273 2,19 2,383 2,799 3,286 EBIT (IDRbn) ,86 Net profit (IDRbn) 144 (512) Bahana/consensus (%) na na na EPS (IDR) 9 (31) EPS growth (%) 31 (455) (127) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) 28.7 (8.1) FCFPS (IDR) (54) (19) (9) () (18) FCF yield (%) (21) (8) (4) (7) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Ad Revenue Growth (%) 46 (7) COGS Growth (%) 78 (4) EBITDA Margin (%) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 19/45 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : na/na Majority shareholder (%) : PT Bakrie Global Ventura / 53.7 Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 16,464 / 45 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 4,149/314 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 2.6/.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : VIVA.IJ/VIVA.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 34

341 217 Compendium VISI MEDIA ASIA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 2,273 2,19 2,383 2,799 3,286 Gross profit 1,526 1,391 1,558 1,85 2,242 EBITDA ,232 Depreciation (94) (16) (119) (133) (146) EBIT ,86 Net interest inc./(expense) (562) (583) (369) (37) (387) Forex gain/(losses) (37) (19) Other income/(expense) 23 (96) (29) (32) (35) Pre-tax profit 375 (346) Taxes (22) (136) (195) (159) (266) Minority interest (29) (3) (24) (28) (32) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 144 (512) Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables ,26 Inventories Fixed assets ,7 1,27 1,47 Other assets 3,585 4,329 4,245 4,152 4,16 Total assets 6,162 6,26 6,966 7,221 7,621 Interest bearing liabilities 2,92 3,9 4, 4, 4, Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities 3,519 4,49 5,8 5,123 5,157 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,24 1,693 1,829 2,4 2,46 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT ,86 Depreciation Working capital (751) 958 (11) (43) (53) Other operating items (562) (815) (593) (561) (688) Operating cash flow (446) Net capital expenditure (441) (1,92) (269) (333) (346) Free cash flow (888) (321) (152) (5) (34) Equity raised/(bought) (2) Net borrowings Other financing 47 (185) (28) (28) (32) Net cash flow (353) (398) 559 (32) (336) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) 6 (21) ROAA (%) 3 (8) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) 6 (24) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

342 217 Compendium WASKITA KARYA BUY *PX: IDR2,36- TP: IDR3,2 WSKT, the biggest state-owned construction company by market cap, should continue to book solid new contracts supported by its enlarged balance sheet due to its WSBP IPO and WTR private placements. Going forward, we expect WSKT s 217 order book to reach IDR97tn, up 2% y- y, before rising to IDR16tn (215: IDR52tn) in 218. WSKT s stake in several high-profile toll roads in Greater Jakarta, Trans Java and Trans Sumatera should support longer-term revenue growth. Furthermore, with 217F net gearing of 63%, WSKT s below-the-line performance would be supported by a lower interest-rate environment. On valuation, we think our SOTP-based TP of IDR3,2 reflecting a 217F PE of 24x (2% premium to the sector), is justified by solid earnings visibility, as most of its projects come from the government and other SOEs. Risks to our call include land-clearing and project delays. Share price performance (IDR) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) WSKT IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (2) (5.9) (11.3) (13.5) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M WSKT IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext.368 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, (1) (2) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenue (IDRbn) 1,287 14,153 25,267 33,515 43,57 EBIT (IDRbn) 886 1,415 2,977 3,638 4,366 Net profit (IDRbn) 512 1,48 1,54 1,796 2,28 Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (94) (596) (55) (453) (43) FCF yield (%) (4.) (25.2) (23.3) (19.2) (17.1) BVPS (IDR) ,189 1,295 1,43 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Carried over (IDRbn) 1,516 2,277 35,534 5,77 58,232 New contracts (IDRbn) 22,625 32,84 44,918 46,41 47,192 New contracts growth (%) Total order books (IDRbn) 33,141 52,361 8,451 96,81 15,423 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 2,86/1,65 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 3,8/2,2 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (66.1) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 13,573/34. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 32,33/2,376 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 71.4/5.3 Bloomberg/Reuters code : WSKT IJ/WSKT.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 342

343 217 Compendium WASKITA KARYA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,287 14,153 25,267 33,515 43,57 Gross profit 1,19 1,921 3,757 4,567 5,531 EBITDA 923 1,88 3,234 3,959 4,713 Depreciation EBIT 886 1,415 2,977 3,638 4,366 Net interest inc./(expense) (14) (267) (67) (85) (1,248) Forex gain/(losses) (3) 13 (5) - - Other income/(expense) (9) Pre-tax profit 766 1,398 2,294 2,847 3,13 Taxes (254) (35) (758) (84) (1,46) Minority interest (31) (244) 195 Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 512 1,48 1,54 1,798 2,28 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1,675 5,511 3,581 2,667 2,59 S-T investments Trade receivables 2,37 4,654 5,884 7,85 1,146 Inventories ,252 1,52 1,83 Fixed assets 622 1,923 2,221 2,495 2,743 Other assets 7,31 17,384 29,222 39,274 49,964 Total assets 12,542 3,39 42,172 53,77 67,285 Interest bearing liabilities 3,163 8,292 8,489 13,59 19,256 Trade payables 2,572 5,472 7,72 9,517 12,56 Other liabilities 4,42 6,841 1,47 12,917 15,85 Total liabilities 9,777 2,65 25,968 36,24 47,612 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,759 9,547 15,95 17,331 19,141 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 886 1,415 2,977 3,638 4,366 Depreciation Working capital (183) 743 (1,542) (1,428) (1,148) Other operating items (445) (925) (1,817) (2,2) (2,523) Operating cash flow 295 1,698 (125) 331 1,42 Net capital expenditure (1,211) (9,671) (7,232) (6,397) (6,431) Free cash flow (916) (7,974) (7,358) (6,66) (5,389) Equity raised/(bought) 59 5, Net borrowings 1,544 5, ,132 5,225 Other financing (131) 769 5, Net cash flow 556 3,836 (1,93) (914) (76) Cash balances, beginning 1,12 1,675 5,511 3,581 2,667 Ending cash 1,675 5,511 3,581 2,667 2,59 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

344 217 Compendium WASKITA BETON PRECAST BUY PX: IDR58- TP: IDR74 WSBP, WSKT s subsidiary in the precast concrete business, should continue to enjoy sustained demand from toll-road projects with a total value of IDR2tn through 218. Due to its state-owned status and affiliation with WSKT, WSBP will partake in national strategic projects. In order to support WSBP s sizeable potential projects ahead, the management will expand its capacity from 1.8mn tons in 215 to 3.8mn tons in 218, making it the biggest precast concrete maker in Indonesia. WSBP will also expand its ready mix business from 1.8mn cm/annum in 215 to 6mn cm/annum by 218. With high certainty and sustainability of most its future revenues due to WSKT s support, WSBP will likely experience a solid net profit CAGR of 35% y-y. Thus, WSBP is a BUY with a TP of IDR74, based on a 217F PE of 21x, relatively at par to the regional peers. Risks: project delays and lower margins from third-party customers. Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 1,25 2,644 4,513 7,23 8,78 EBIT (IDRbn) ,135 1,366 Net profit (IDRbn) ,59 Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) - (74.5) (113.9) (99.4) 11.3 FCF yield (%) - na na na na BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Share price performance (IDR) Sep-16 4-Oct Oct-16 1-Nov Nov-16 (') 2, 1,5 1, 5 Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Precast sales volumes (mn tons) Precast ASP (IDR mn/ton) Ready-mix sales volumes (mn) tons) Ready-mix ASP (IDR mn/ton) Volume (RHS) WSBP IJ Px Last (%) (%) Since IPO 1M WSBP IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext.368 *New, please refer to appendix II Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 645/49 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 77/64 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (66.1) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 26,361/4. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 14,894/1,15 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 115.4/8.6 Bloomberg/Reuters code : WSBP IJ/WSBP.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 344

345 217 Compendium WASKITA BETON PRECAST Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 1,25 2,644 4,513 7,23 8,78 Gross profit ,267 1,525 EBITDA ,38 1,47 1,774 Depreciation EBIT ,135 1,366 Net interest inc./(expense) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) (2) (2) (9) (14) (13) Pre-tax profit ,241 1,412 Taxes (4) (11) (32) (31) (353) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit ,59 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents ,665 1,321 1,63 S-T investments Trade receivables 879 2,832 5,373 8,398 9,17 Inventories Fixed assets ,928 3,589 4,79 Other assets Total assets 1,588 4,332 12,445 13,948 15,39 Interest bearing liabilities ,911 2,511 2,811 Trade payables ,729 1,863 Other liabilities 43 1,51 1,22 1,665 1,931 Total liabilities 73 3,1 5,53 5,95 6,65 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 858 1,331 7,392 8,43 8,785 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT ,135 1,366 Depreciation Working capital - (1,659) (2,321) (2,373) (532) Other operating items (64) 278 (45) Operating cash flow - (414) (1,887) (624) 1,196 Net capital expenditure - (764) (1,116) (1,997) (897) Free cash flow - (1,178) (3,3) (2,621) 299 Equity raised/(bought) - 2 5, Net borrowings ,15 (4) 3 Other financing - 43 (47) (323) (317) Net cash flow - (174) 4,567 (3,344) 282 Cash flow at beginning ,665 1,321 Ending cash flow ,665 1,321 1,63 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na na na na na Net gearing (%) nc 49.8 nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

346 217 Compendium WIJAYA KARYA BUY **PX: IDR2,372 - **TP: IDR3,267 As the most diversified construction company in the sector, WIKA should benefit most from Indonesia s GDP upcycle, backed by its IDR6.2tn rights issue proceeds, to be used in several projects such as toll roads and power plants. Growth support in would come from WIKA s involvement in the Jakarta-Bandung high speed railway (HSR) project worth IDR64tn. Moreover, Indonesia s huge infrastructure spending should provide increased demand for WIKA s precast products, currently the most dominant in the marketplace. If the higher government infra budget in 217 materializes, WIKA s share price underperformance should reverse. On valuation, WIKA looks attractive on 3% upside potential to our TP of IDR3,267, based on 217F PE of 22.x in line with its 5-year historical average PE. Risks: Lower infra spending and project realization delays. Share price performance (IDR) 3,2 3, 2,8 2,6 2,4 2,2 2, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) WIKA IJ Px Last (%) (%) 1 (1) (2) (3) (12.9) 5.8 (15.) (.5) (9.8) (22.2) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M WIKA IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext. 368 *New, please refer to appendix II ** TERP (Theoretical Ex-Rigths Price) (') 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, 1 (1) (2) (3) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 12,463 13,62 19,5 26,4 33,39 EBIT (IDRbn) 1,41 1,514 1,988 2,689 3,54 Net profit (IDRbn) ,332 1,595 Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (31) (125) (388) (67) (413) FCF yield (%) (1.3) (4.2) (12.9) (22.3) (13.8) BVPS (IDR) ,746 1,346 1,47 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Carried over (IDRbn) 24,141 22,751 31,677 57,177 63,552 New contracts (IDRbn) 17,632 25,33 53, 38, 45,6 New contracts growth (%) (.6) (28.3) 2. Total order books (IDRbn) 41,773 48,81 84,677 95,177 19,152 Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 3,139/2,37 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 3,982/2,461 Majority shareholder (%) : Republic of Indonesia (65.1) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 6,294/35. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 16,179/1,2 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 54.4/4. Bloomberg/Reuters code : WIKA IJ/WIKA.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 346

347 217 Compendium WIJAYA KARYA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 12,463 13,62 19,5 26,4 33,39 Gross profit 1,794 1,943 2,548 3,447 4,462 EBITDA 1,589 1,748 2,273 3,26 3,892 Depreciation EBIT 1,41 1,514 1,988 2,689 3,54 Net interest inc./(expense) (124) (372) (25) (232) (52) Forex gain/(losses) (2) 28 (9) - - Other income/(expense) (129) (72) (146) (138) (167) Pre-tax profit 1,146 1,98 1,582 2,319 2,835 Taxes (395) (395) (585) (792) (1,2) Minority interest (136) (78) (133) (195) (238) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit ,332 1,595 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 2,31 2,56 5,151 1,642 1,624 S-T investments Trade receivables 1,963 2,782 3,473 5,63 6,44 Inventories 817 1,31 1,423 1,93 2,442 Fixed assets 2,676 3,184 3,799 4,363 4,875 Other assets 8,152 1,45 15,479 24,566 31,959 Total assets 15,99 19,62 29,325 37,563 47,34 Interest bearing liabilities 3,32 3,51 1,914 3,914 7,164 Trade payables 3,974 4,42 6,395 8,672 1,975 Other liabilities 4,27 6,234 8,77 11,743 14,755 Total liabilities 11,32 14,164 17,79 24,329 32,895 Minority interest 989 1,63 1,116 1,172 1,23 Shareholders' equity 3,888 4,375 11,13 12,62 13,179 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1,41 1,514 1,988 2,689 3,54 Depreciation Working capital (166) (1,686) (365) (1,71) (1,49) Other operating items (1,573) (73) (412) (449) (99) Operating cash flow (15) (11) 1, ,493 Net capital expenditure (1,751) (758) (3,969) (6,883) (5,195) Free cash flow (1,92) (769) (2,474) (6,7) (3,71) Equity raised/(bought) 717 (3) 6, Net borrowings 1, (1,596) 2, 3,25 Other financing Net cash flow ,591 (3,59) (18) Cash balances, beginning 1,387 2,31 2,56 5,151 1,642 Ending cash 2,31 2,56 5,151 1,642 1,624 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

348 217 Compendium WIJAYA KARYA BETON BUY PX: IDR83- TP: IDR1,1 On the back of improved infrastructure spending in Indonesia, WTON, the largest concrete maker in Indonesia, will likely benefit due to its sizeable market share based on total national capacity of approximately 35%. Furthermore, WTON s growth ahead should also benefit from WIKA s (its parent company) substantial order book, especially in the HSR project. Going forward, WTON aims to continue to improve its products technological competitiveness to help maintain its market share. That, coupled with improved utilization rates, should support our 217 GPM forecast of 13.3% (216F: 13.%). We expect WTON to expand its capacity to 3.3mn tons/annum (216F:2.5mn tons/annum) in 218. Given the experienced management team and 217F EPS growth of 39% y-y, we maintain our BUY rating with a TP of IDR1,1, based on 24x our 217F EPS, at par with regional peers. Risks: Delays in several WIKA projects, lower market share and declining ASPs. Share price performance (IDR) 1,5 1, Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) WTON IJ Px Last (%) (%) (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) (12.9) (4.6) (1.6) (18.2) (25.5) (25.5) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M WTON IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext. 368 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 1, 8, 6, 4, 2, (5) (1) (15) (2) (25) (3) Financial highlights* Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 3,277 2,653 4,3 5,483 6,812 EBIT (IDRbn) Net profit (IDRbn) Bahana/cons.(%) EPS (IDR) EPS growth (%) 12.6 (51.4) EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) FCFPS (IDR) (62) (8) (68) (14) 11 FCF yield (%) (7.5) (.9) (8.2) (1.7) 1.4 BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales volumes (mn tons) Prod. capacity (mn tons/annum) Price/ton (IDRmn) Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 1,75/78 12M high/low consensus TP (IDR) : 1,3/975 Majority shareholder (%) : Wijaya Karya (6.) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 8,715/4. Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 7,234/537 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 14.6/1.1 Bloomberg/Reuters code : WTON IJ/WTON.JK, Reuters based on 23 November 216 closing price 348

349 217 Compendium WIJAYA KARYA BETON Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 3,277 2,653 4,3 5,483 6,812 Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) 6 (26) (29) (52) (6) Forex gain/(losses) (5) (8) (2) - - Other income/(expense) Pre-tax profit Taxes (89) (34) (87) (12) (148) Minority interest 6 2 (6) (7) (8) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 1, S-T investments Trade receivables ,26 Inventories ,43 1,296 Fixed assets 1,671 1,998 2,29 2,659 2,953 Other assets Total assets 3,82 4,456 4,46 5,43 6,212 Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities 615 1, ,176 1,483 Total liabilities 1,6 2,193 2,25 2,685 3,144 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 2,143 2,25 2,37 2,647 2,988 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital 432 (166) (247) (182) (126) Other operating items (726) 187 (458) (139) (183) Operating cash flow (168) Net capital expenditure (744) (416) (425) (525) (475) Free cash flow (543) (67) (592) (121) 99 Equity raised/(bought) 1,151 (13) Net borrowings 26 (33) (3) Other financing (11) (11) (115) (113) (141) Net cash flow 625 (214) (618) (94) (72) Cash balances, beginning 413 1, Ending cash 1, Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) ROAA (%) Gross margin (%) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) na Net gearing (%) nc nc Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

350 217 Compendium WINTERMAR OFFSHORE MARINE BUY* PX: IDR178 - TP: IDR2* Looking ahead, WINS, the largest domestic provider of offshore marine services, is expected to experience slight demand rise given bottoming out oil prices. In addition, there are several O&G development projects in Indonesia which are scheduled to start operations in 217. During the downward trend in OSV charter rates following low exploration activities in 9M16, WINS managed to lower its direct expenses by 15% on lower crew and fuel costs, resulting in an improved margin of 1.2% at the operating level, compared to 3% in 9M15. We believe this will continue, providing margin support for exploration activities at lower oil prices. Due to poor earnings and a bleak industry outlook, WINS has already underperformed market by 22% in the last 12M. This provides limited downside, in our view. Hence, WINS is a BUY with a DCF-based 12M TP of IDR2. Risks: Continued project delays and rebound in oil price. Share price performance (IDR) Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) WINS IJ Px Last (%) (%) (2) (4) (6.3) (18.5) (27.4) (24.6) (22.) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M WINS IJ relative to JCI Gregorius Gary (gregorius@bahana.co.id) ext. 364 *New, please refer to appendix II (') 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, 4 2 (2) (4) Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (USDmn) EBIT (USDmn) Net profit (USDmn) 22 (6) (6) 2 12 Bahana/consensus (%) EPS (IDR) 5 (2) (21) 8 43 EPS growth (%) (2.6) (14.) 4.6 na EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) 3.6 na na FCFPS (IDR) (52) FCF yield (%) (29.) BVPS (IDR) P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Number of vessels (low tier) Number of vessels (mid-high) Utilization rates (%) Additional vessels 6 (2) (5) - - Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 268/97 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 264/185 Majority shareholder (%) : Wintermarjaya Lestari (48.7) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 4,31/42.2 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 717/53 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) :.3/.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : WINS IJ/WINS.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November 216 closing price 35

351 217 Compendium WINTERMAR OFFSHORE MARINE Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales Gross profit EBITDA Depreciation EBIT Net interest inc./(expense) (12) (9) (9) (8) (5) Forex gain/(losses) Other income/(expense) () (2) 1 1 Pre-tax profit 33 (9) (2) 6 17 Taxes (3) (1) (2) (2) (2) Minority interest (9) 4 (2) (2) (3) Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit 22 (6) (6) 2 12 Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents S-T investments Trade receivables Inventories Fixed assets Other assets Total assets Interest bearing liabilities Trade payables Other liabilities Total liabilities Minority interest Shareholders' equity Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (USDmn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT Depreciation Working capital Other operating items 1 (1) () () () Operating cash flow Net capital expenditure (15) (3) (26) (25) (52) Free cash flow (17) Equity raised/(bought) 2 (2) Net borrowings 22 - (2) (2) Other financing (2) (2) (1) (9) (8) Net cash flow 4 (11) (17) 16 (18) Cash flow at beginning Ending cash flow Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) 9. (2.3) (2.4) ROAA (%) 4.7 (1.2) (1.3) EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) 12.3 (5.7) (5.7) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days) 351

352 217 Compendium XL AXIATA BUY* PX: IDR2,25 - TP: IDR3, EXCL, a pure GSM mobile telecommunication operator and third largest in terms of subscribers, will start expanding to the outer Java areas, supported by a conducive regulatory environment and its partnership with ISAT for a joint expansion program. Additionally, we believe that EXCL will benefit from the sector s strong improvements in both ARPUs and data usage, allowing for stronger EBITDA margins ahead, helped also by the company s continued enhanced pricing strategy. Below the line, we expect support to stem from lower interest expenses due to EXCL s tower sales and rights issue as well as higher forex gains backed by a stronger IDR outlook. On valuation, EXCL is a BUY with our DCF-based TP of IDR3,, reflecting a 217F EV/EBITDA of 4.7x, around a 45% discount to its regional peers. Risks: Change in EXCL s higher-value strategy that results in higher revenue growth. Share price performance (IDR) (') 4,5 12, 4, 1, 3,5 8, 6, 3, 4, 2,5 2, 2, 23-Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov-16 Volume (RHS) EXCL IJ Px Last (%) (%) (1) (6.4) (1) (2) (2) (3) (29.4) (3) (4) (39.6) (4) (5) (5) (6) (51.) (52.) (53.9) (6) ytd 1M 3M 6M 9M 12M EXCL IJ relative to JCI Leonardo Henry Gavaza, CFA (leonardo@bahana.co.id) ext. 368 *New, please refer to appendix II Financial highlights Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Revenues (IDRbn) 23,46 22,876 21,383 22,13 23,575 EBIT (IDRbn) 8,623 8,393 8,299 9,1 9,782 Net profit (IDRbn) (775) (25) (247) Bahana/consensus (%) - - (22.8) EPS (IDR) (73) (2) (23) EPS growth (%) na na na na 29.2 EV/EBITDA (x) P/E (x) na na na FCFPS (IDR) (534) (97) 439 (12) 13 FCF yield (%) (23.7) (4.3) 19.5 (.5).6 BVPS (IDR) 1,317 1,321 1,927 1,949 1,979 P/BV (x) DPS (IDR) Div. yield (%) Note: based on 23 November 216 closing price Major assumptions Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Subscribers (') 59,623 42,37 44,139 46,125 47,993 Net adds (') (954) (17,586) 2,12 1,986 1,868 ARPU (') Company information 12M high/low (IDR) : 4,217/2,15 12M High/low consensus TP (IDR) : 4,8/2,33 Majority shareholder (%) : Axiata Group (66.4) Shares outstanding (mn)/free float (%) : 1,688/33.6 Mkt. cap. (IDRbn/USDmn) : 24,48/1,784 3-m avg.daily t.o.(idrbn/usdmn) : 43.9/3.2 Bloomberg/Reuters code : EXCL IJ/EXCL.JK, Reuters; based on 23 November closing price 352

353 217 Compendium XL AXIATA Profit & loss Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Sales 23,46 22,876 21,383 22,13 23,575 Gross profit EBITDA 8,623 8,393 8,299 9,1 9,782 Depreciation 6,841 7,135 7,624 7,578 8,119 EBIT 1,782 1, ,522 1,663 Net interest inc./(expense) (1,397) (1,8) (1,72) (1,22) (1,227) Forex gain/(losses) (1,295) (2,521) Other income/(expense) (44) 1, Pre-tax profit (953) (631) (329) Taxes (115) (149) Minority interest Extraordinary gain/(losses) Net profit (775) (25) (247) Balance sheet Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F Cash and equivalents 6,951 3,312 3,77 3,477 3,486 S-T investments Trade receivables 1, Inventories Fixed assets 35,27 33,427 32,624 32,451 32,88 Other assets 2,27 21,16 18,111 17,998 18,56 Total assets 63,631 58,844 55,277 54,785 55,5 Interest bearing liabilities 29,628 26,953 15,953 15,953 15,953 Trade payables 4,444 5,283 4,816 4,792 5,96 Other liabilities 15,51 12,516 13,953 13,243 12,892 Total liabilities 49,583 44,753 34,722 33,989 33,941 Minority interest Shareholders' equity 14,48 14,92 2,555 2,796 21,19 Cash flow Year to 31 Dec (IDRbn) 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F EBIT 1,782 1, ,522 1,663 Depreciation 6,841 7,135 7,624 7,578 8,119 Working capital (1,617) (2,636) 4,18 (645) (666) Other operating items (4,511) (666) (794) (1,398) (1,438) Operating cash flow 2,496 5,91 11,685 7,57 7,678 Net capital expenditure (8,192) (6,125) (7,) (7,183) (7,535) Free cash flow (5,696) (1,33) 4,685 (126) 143 Equity raised/(bought) Net borrowings 11,87 (2,675) (11,) - - Other financing (478) 69 6,71 (14) (134) Net cash flow 5,633 (3,639) 395 (23) 9 Cash balances, beginning 1,318 6,951 3,312 3,77 3,477 Ending cash 6,951 3,312 3,77 3,477 3,486 Key ratios Year to 31 Dec 214A 215A 216F 217F 218F ROAE (%) (5.3) (.2) (1.4) ROAA (%) (1.5) (.) (.4).6.8 EBITDA margin (%) EBIT margin (%) Net margin (%) (3.3) (.1) (1.2) Payout ratio (%) Current ratio (x) Interest coverage (x) Net gearing (%) Debts to assets (%) Debtor turnover (days) Creditor turnover (days) Inventory turnover (days)

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355 217 Compendium APPENDIX 355

356 APPENDIX I: STOCK HIGHLIGHTS 217 Compendium Stock JCI code Ticker Rating Price TP Shares Free float Mkt cap 3M avg to Revenue (IDRb) Opt. profit (IDRb) Net profit (IDRb) EPS growth (%) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) Net gearing (%) ROAE (%) ROAA (%) ROIC (%) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F AUTOMOTIVE OW 319, , ,616 18,239 22,578 16,766 21, Astra International ASII IJ Equity ASII IJ BUY 7,775 1, 4, , ,73 28,53 16,456 2,259 16,235 2, Indomobil Sukses Makmur IMAS IJ Equity IMAS IJ BUY 1,4 2, 2, , ,278 19, (27) 285 na na na (3.8) 5.1 (.8) 1. (1.) 1.2 Gajah Tunggal GJTL IJ Equity GJTL IJ BUY 1,85 1,5 3, , ,691 14,481 1,622 1, (335.7) BANKS OW 1,92, ,986 33,588 99, ,726 78,846 92,38 (3.8) na na nc nc na na Bank Central Asia BBCA IJ Equity BBCA IJ HOLD 14,7 15,1 24, , ,466 6,311 25,124 27,915 2,79 22, na na nc nc na na Bank Rakyat Indonesia BBRI IJ Equity BBRI IJ BUY 11,5 14,9 24, , ,91 88,55 3,579 33,648 25,44 27, na na nc nc na na Bank Mandiri BMRI IJ Equity BMRI IJ BUY 1,9 12,35 23, , ,122 79,224 15,969 22,958 11,842 17,267 (41.8) na na nc nc na na Bank Negara Indonesia BBNI IJ Equity BBNI IJ BUY 5,125 7, 18, , ,847 45,9 13,25 15,53 1,876 12, na na nc nc na na Bank Danamon BDMN IJ Equity BDMN IJ BUY 3,55 4, 9, , ,1 19,597 4,66 5,241 2,912 3, na na nc nc na na Bank Tabungan Pensiunan Nasio BTPN IJ Equity BTPN IJ BUY 2,79 3,3 5, , ,847 9,193 2,576 2,82 1,851 2, na na nc nc na na Bank Tabungan Negara BBTN IJ Equity BBTN IJ BUY 1,72 2,1 1, , ,898 1,18 2,92 3,35 2,196 2, na na nc nc na na Bank Jabar BJBR IJ Equity BJBR IJ REDUCE 1,495 1,2 9, , ,147 9,811 2,45 2,255 1,69 1, na na nc nc na na Bank Jatim BJTM IJ Equity BJTM IJ HOLD , , ,89 4,134 1,347 1,43 1,22 1, na na nc nc na na Bank Bukopin BBKP IJ Equity BBKP IJ BUY 63 1, 9, , ,668 5,237 1,378 1,579 1,56 1, na na nc nc na na CEMENT N 134, ,42 54,999 9,443 9,726 8,15 7,886 (14.8) (1.6) Semen Gresik SMGR IJ Equity SMGR IJ HOLD 8,4 8,94 5, , ,473 27,776 5,128 5,176 4,6 4,79 (11.4) nc nc Indocement INTP IJ Equity INTP IJ HOLD 14,575 15,6 3, , ,424 16,39 3,572 3,789 3,841 3,577 (11.8) (6.9) nc nc Holcim SMCB IJ Equity SMCB IJ HOLD , , ,97 9, (92) 26 (152.4) (128.1) (74.3) (1.) (1.1).3 (.5).1 (.6).2 Semen Baturaja SMBR IJ Equity SMBR IJ REDUCE 2, , , ,48 1, (26.9) (21.4) COAL RELATED N 179, ,53 126,511 18,288 21,95 11,112 13, Adaro* ADRO IJ Equity ADRO IJ BUY 1,63 2,1 31, , ,848 36,392 8,261 8,749 3,824 4, Indo Tambangraya Megah* ITMG IJ Equity ITMG IJ BUY 16,2 19,46 1, , ,474 2,419 2,19 2,533 1,268 1, nc nc Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA IJ Equity PTBA IJ BUY 11,9 14,13 2, , ,596 16,464 1,667 2,773 1,325 2,157 (34.9) nc United Tractor UNTR IJ Equity UNTR IJ BUY 21,9 26,5 3, , ,611 53,237 6,341 7,85 4,695 6, nc nc CONSUMER - DISCRETIONARY OW 92, , ,65 6,185 7,32 4,197 5, Matahari Department Store LPPF IJ Equity LPPF IJ BUY 14,575 19,1 2, , ,196 11,994 2,568 3,17 2,46 2, nc nc ACE Hardware ACES IJ Equity ACES IJ HOLD , , ,59 5, nc nc Mitra Adiperkasa MAPI IJ Equity MAPI IJ BUY 4,89 6,6 1, , ,51 17, Ramayana Lestari Sentosa RALS IJ Equity RALS IJ BUY 1,22 1,44 7,96 3 8, ,22 8, nc nc Matahari Putra Prima MPPA IJ Equity MPPA IJ BUY 1,75 2,25 5, , ,415 16, (36.8) Catur Sentosa Adiprana CSAP IJ Equity CSAP IJ BUY ,53 4 1, ,146 9, Tiphone Mobile Indonesia TELE IJ Equity TELE IJ BUY , , ,697 3, Erajaya Swasembada ERAA IJ Equity ERAA IJ BUY ,9 4 1, ,755 23, CONSUMER - STAPLES N 1,16, ,239 38,693 51,453 56,926 35,54 38, Unilever Indonesia UNVR IJ Equity UNVR IJ BUY 4,45 45, 7, , ,675 44,251 8,837 9,672 6,514 7, Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP IJ Equity ICBP IJ BUY 8,775 1,5 11, , ,154 38,396 5,96 5,85 3,876 4, nc nc Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF IJ Equity INDF IJ BUY 7,7 9,8 8, , ,12 76,4 8,876 9,488 4,498 4, Mayora Indah MYOR IJ Equity MYOR IJ BUY 1,535 2,5 22, , ,559 2,869 2,45 2,394 1,248 1, Nippon Indosari Corpindo ROTI IJ Equity ROTI IJ HOLD 1,54 1,6 5, , ,517 2, Kino Indonesia KINO IJ Equity KINO IJ HOLD 3, 3,1 1, , ,719 4, (2.) Gudang Garam GGRM IJ Equity GGRM IJ BUY 64,5 81, 1, , ,19 85,936 1,47 11,281 6,533 7, HM Sampoerna HMSP IJ Equity HMSP IJ BUY 3,93 4,7 116, , ,475 18,243 15,737 18,119 12,296 13, nc nc HEALTHCARE N 153, ,388 5,251 5,532 6,53 4,285 4, Kalbe Farma KLBF IJ Equity KLBF IJ BUY 1,5 1,88 46, , ,584 21,622 2,974 3,28 2,229 2, nc nc Mitra Keluarga Karyasehat MIKA IJ Equity MIKA IJ HOLD 2,71 2,55 14, , ,468 2, nc nc Kimia Farma KAEF IJ Equity KAEF IJ REDUCE 2,7 1,65 5, , ,591 6, Siloam International Hospital SILO IJ Equity SILO IJ BUY 1,1 13,1 1, , ,255 6, nc Tempo Scan Pacific TSPC IJ Equity TSPC IJ REDUCE 2, 1,7 4,5 22 9,.6 8,962 9, (2.7) (3.1) nc nc Sido Muncul SIDO IJ Equity SIDO IJ BUY , 19 8, ,528 2, INDUSTRIAL ESTATES N 26, ,199 12,439 3,158 3,687 2,353 2,632 (25.6) Puradelta Lestari DMAS IJ Equity DMAS IJ BUY , , ,515 1, (42.8) nc nc Kawasan Industri Jababeka KIJA IJ Equity KIJA IJ BUY , , ,789 3, Bekasi Fajar Industrial Estate BEST IJ Equity BEST IJ REDUCE , , (8.5) Surya Semesta Internusa SSIA IJ Equity SSIA IJ BUY , , ,651 4, (2.) Lippo Cikarang LPCK IJ Equity LPCK IJ BUY 5,3 8, , ,647 1, (21.1) nc nc , Bahana estimates; note: based on 23 November 216 closing price 356

357 APPENDIX I: STOCK HIGHLIGHTS (cont d) 217 Compendium Stock JCI code Ticker Rating Price TP Shares Free float Mkt cap 3M avg to Revenue (IDRb) Opt. profit (IDRb) Net profit (IDRb) EPS growth (%) PER (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) Net gearing (%) ROAE (%) ROAA (%) ROIC (%) (IDR) (IDR) (m) (%) (IDRb) (IDRb) 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F 216F 217F INFRASTRUCTURE OW 128, , ,622 13,612 16,612 6,877 8, Jasa Marga JSMR IJ Equity JSMR IJ BUY 4,21 5,287 6,8 3 28, ,785 9,648 3,691 3,948 1,734 1, Wijaya Karya WIKA IJ Equity WIKA IJ BUY 2,372 3,267 6, , ,5 26,4 1,988 2, , nc Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP IJ Equity PTPP IJ BUY 3,883 4,63 4, , ,126 24,935 2,225 2,728 1,1 1, nc nc Waskita Karya WSKT IJ Equity WSKT IJ BUY 2,36 3,2 13, , ,267 33,515 2,977 3,638 1,54 1, Wijaya Karya Beton WTON IJ Equity WTON IJ BUY 83 1,1 8, , ,3 5, Waskita Beton WSBP IJ Equity WSBP IJ BUY , , ,513 7, , nc Adhi Karya ADHI IJ Equity ADHI IJ BUY 2, 3,5 3, , ,177 21,268 1,2 1, (11.2) Total Bangun Persada TOTL IJ Equity TOTL IJ BUY 76 1,125 3, , ,515 3, nc nc INDUSTRY-VARIOUS N 5, ,497 14,111 1,564 1, Sri Rejeki Isman SRIL IJ Equity SRIL IJ BUY , , ,73 1,214 1,46 1, Anabatic Technologies ATIC IJ Equity ATIC IJ BUY , , ,424 3, MEDIA OW 94, ,155 34,252 8,72 9,895 5,157 5, Surya Citra Media SCMA IJ Equity SCMA IJ BUY 2,38 3, 14, , ,467 4,816 1,999 2,321 1,529 1, nc nc Media Nusantara Citra MNCN IJ Equity MNCN IJ BUY 1,735 2,2 14, , ,13 7,636 2,524 2,787 1,76 1, Global Mediacom BMTR IJ Equity BMTR IJ REDUCE , , ,86 12,26 2,419 2,563 1,17 1,51 na MNC Sky Vision MSKY IJ Equity MSKY IJ REDUCE 1,4 7 7,25 2 7, ,273 3, (32) 26 na na na na (1.8) 1.2 (.5).3 (.7).5 Link Net LINK IJ Equity LINK IJ HOLD 5,55 5,3 3, , ,933 3,241 1,76 1, nc nc Visi Media Asia VIVA IJ Equity VIVA IJ REDUCE , , ,383 2, na METALS OW 94, ,253 58,125 1,844 6,771 (777) 2,951 (84.) (.1) Vale Indonesia INCO IJ Equity INCO IJ BUY 3,37 4, 9, , ,651 1, , ,955 (93.7) 4, nc nc Aneka Tambang ANTM IJ Equity ANTM IJ REDUCE , , ,371 12,917 (135) Timah Persero TINS IJ Equity TINS IJ BUY 1,25 1,46 7, , ,84 7, (7.9) J Resources PSAB IJ Equity PSAB IJ BUY ,46 8 7, ,63 4,14 1,199 1, Merdeka Copper Gold MDKA IJ Equity MDKA IJ BUY 2,2 2,34 3, , ,448 (72) 649 (46) na (2.1) 15.4 (1.5) 9. (1.9) 11.3 Krakatau Steel* KRAS IJ Equity KRAS IJ BUY 79 1,2 15, , ,787 21, ,325 (1,3) (358) na na na na (5.3) (1.5) (2.8) (.6) (2.8) (.7) OIL & GAS N 92, ,755 76,672 1,834 13,758 6,478 8, Perusahaan Gas Negara* PGAS IJ Equity PGAS IJ BUY 2,53 2,89 24, , ,943 45,59 7,623 8,946 4,948 6,424 (8.6) AKR Corporindo AKRA IJ Equity AKRA IJ BUY 6,625 8, 3, , ,147 21,318 1,61 2,195 1,14 1, Medco Energy* MEDC IJ Equity MEDC IJ BUY 1,36 1,54 3, , ,665 9,845 1,61 2, PLANTATIONS N 57, ,786 47,71 4,85 7,8 3,1 4, Astra Agro Lestari AALI IJ Equity AALI IJ BUY 15,6 2,25 1, , ,859 15,347 2,28 2,926 1,448 1, Salim Ivomas Pratama SIMP IJ Equity SIMP IJ HOLD , , ,12 16,211 1,26 1, London Sumatra Indonesia LSIP IJ Equity LSIP IJ BUY 1,68 2,85 6, , ,711 4, , (37.2) nc nc Sampoerna Agro SGRO IJ Equity SGRO IJ BUY 1,9 2,175 1, , ,486 3, (5.6) Tunas Baru Lampung TBLA IJ Equity TBLA IJ BUY 92 1,475 5, , ,69 7, , POULTRY UW 78, , 76,795 8,389 8,343 5,443 5, (.) Charoen Pokhpand Indonesia CPIN IJ Equity CPIN IJ HOLD 3,37 3,3 16, , ,842 4,864 4,334 4,551 3,13 3, Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA IJ Equity JPFA IJ BUY 1,755 2,4 1, , ,875 3,174 3,56 3,222 2,25 1, (12.1) Malindo Feedmill MAIN IJ Equity MAIN IJ BUY 1,31 2, 2, , ,282 5, (485.7) PROPERTY OW 165, ,362 46,631 11,911 14,491 6,323 7,992 (17.9) Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE IJ Equity BSDE IJ BUY 1,815 2,35 19, , ,33 6,534 2,616 2,89 1,656 1,841 (22.6) Lippo Karawaci LPKR IJ Equity LPKR IJ HOLD , , ,497 1,16 1,547 1, Pakuwon Jati PWON IJ Equity PWON IJ HOLD , , ,97 5,578 2,316 2,72 1,512 1, Summarecon Agung SMRA IJ Equity SMRA IJ BUY 1,4 2,15 14, , ,46 5,623 1,132 1, (87.6) Ciputra Development CTRA IJ Equity CTRA IJ BUY 1,435 1,8 15, , ,593 9,424 1,682 2, ,465 (36.9) Alam Sutera Realty ASRI IJ Equity ASRI IJ REDUCE , , ,7 3,252 1,118 1, Ciputra Property CTRP IJ Equity CTRP IJ BUY , , ,629 1, (59.4) PP Property PPRO IJ Equity PPRO IJ REDUCE 1, , , ,898 2, Intiland Development DILD IJ Equity DILD IJ BUY , , ,59 2, (26.7) SHIPPING N 5, ,748 5, , (48.) Soechi Lines SOCI IJ Equity SOCI IJ BUY , , ,719 2, Pelayaran Tempuran Emas TMAS IJ Equity TMAS IJ BUY 1,5 2,59 1, , ,661 1, (35.9) Wintermar Offshore Marine WINS IJ Equity WINS IJ BUY , ,367 1, (78) na (8.5) (2.9).9 (1.2).5 (1.7).8 TELCO-RELATED N 52, , ,74 6,386 68,48 25,54 29, Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM IJ Equity TLKM IJ BUY 3,94 5, 1, , ,758 13,417 41,686 47,2 2,59 22, XL Axiata EXCL IJ Equity EXCL IJ BUY 2,25 3, 1, , ,383 22,13 8,299 9,1 (247) 345 na na na (1.4) 1.7 (.4).6 (.6) 1. Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG IJ Equity TBIG IJ REDUCE 5,75 5,1 4, , ,85 4,169 2,972 3,257 1,374 1,559 (3.9) Sarana Menara Nusantara TOWR IJ Equity TOWR IJ BUY 3,7 5,6 1, , ,956 5,637 3,767 4,282 2,86 2,9 (5.2) Indosat ISAT IJ Equity ISAT IJ BUY 6,3 8,5 5, , ,945 31,388 3,663 4,568 1,62 2,45 na TOURISM OW 9, ,3 68,122 (487) 1,26 (352) 693 (131.4) na (19.1) (1.3) 6.1 (.6) 1.4 (1.) 2.6 Garuda Indonesia* GIAA IJ Equity GIAA IJ REDUCE , , ,289 65,782 (651) 844 (411) 617 (139.8) na (21.7) (3.2) 4.9 (.9) 1.3 (1.6) 2.3 Panorama Sentrawisata PANR IJ Equity PANR IJ BUY , ,11 2, TRANSPORTATION UW 8, ,85 7, , (56.8) Blue Bird BIRD IJ Equity BIRD IJ HOLD 2,93 2,9 2, , ,925 5, (44.) Express Transindo Utama TAXI IJ Equity TAXI IJ REDUCE , () 165 (12) 9 (471.8) na (2.8) (6.4) (14.) 1.1 (4.2).3 (5.6).5 Adi Sarana Armada ASSA IJ Equity ASSA IJ BUY , ,516 1, Market Market N 4,365,61 4,427 1,836,62 2,82, , , , , Note: *USD reporting OW: Overweight, N: Neutral, UW: Underweight, Bahana estimates; note: based on 23 November 216 closing price 357

358 APPENDIX II: EARNINGS REVISIONS TABLE 217 Compendium Ticker Target price New earnings Old earnings Rating Valuation basis Target price New earnings Old earnings Rating Valuation basis New Old 216F 217F 218F 216F 217F 218F New Old New Old 216F 217F 218F 216F 217F 218F New Old AUTOMOTIVE INDUSTRY - VARIOUS ASII 1, 1, 16,293 2,79 23,12 16,363 2,93 22,256 BUY BUY SOTP Valuation SRIL* BUY BUY PE 5.7x 217F IMAS 2, 3, (27) (37) BUY BUY DCF Valuation ATIC BUY BUY PE 35.x 217F GJTL 1,5 1, BUY BUY DCF Valuation METALS CEMENT INCO* 4, 3, BUY BUY DCF valuation SMGR 8,94 8,9 4,6 4,79 4,351 4,919 5,256 5,31 HOLD HOLD PE 13x 217F ANTM (449) (172) 228 REDUCE BUY DCF valuation INTP 15,6 13,95 3,841 3,577 3,789 4,742 5,352 5,734 HOLD REDUCE PE 16x 217F TINS 1, (31) BUY REDUCE DCF valuation SMCB (92) HOLD REDUCE PBV.9x 217F PSAB* BUY BUY DCF valuation SMBR REDUCE REDUCE PE 15x 217F MDKA* 2,34 2,2 (3) (7) (15) 17 BUY BUY PE 24x 217F KRAS* 1,2 1,2 (96) (26) 38 (89) (26) 4 BUY BUY DCF valuation COAL ADRO* 2,1 1, BUY BUY SOTP valuation OIL & GAS PTBA 14,13 14,562 1,325 2,157 2,67 1,415 2,23 2,682 BUY BUY DCF valuation PGAS* 2,89 3, BUY BUY DCF valuation UNTR 26,5 26,5 4,695 6,22 6,47 4,579 5,4 5,461 BUY BUY SOTP Valuation AKRA 8, 8, 1,14 1,642 1,74 1,255 1,49 1,49 BUY BUY SOTP valuation MEDC* 1,54 1, (26) BUY BUY DCF valuation CONS. & TOLL ROADS JSMR 5,1 6, 1,734 1,871 2,25 1,54 1,372 1,68 BUY BUY DCF Valuation PLANTATIONS WSKT 3,2 3,5 1,54 1,798 2,28 1,69 1,971 2,623 BUY BUY PE 24.x 217F AALI 2,25 2,25 1,447 1,79 2,516 1,448 1,772 2,431 BUY BUY 17.8x 217F PE WIKA 3,267 3, ,332 1, ,111 BUY BUY PE 22.x 217F LSIP 2,85 2, BUY BUY 16.8x 217F PE PTPP 4,63 4,3 1,1 1,32 1, ,18 1,197 BUY BUY PE 22.4x 217F WTON 1,1 1, BUY BUY PE 24.x 217F PROPERTY ADHI 3,5 3, , ,72 BUY BUY PE 15.x 217F BSDE 2,35 2,35 1,656 1,841 2,65 2,244 2,458 - BUY BUY 55% discount to NAV TOTL 1, BUY BUY PE 15.x 217F PWON ,512 1,854 2,176 1,658 2,167 2,538 HOLD HOLD 5% discount to NAV WSBP , BUY BUY PE 21.x 217F CTRA 1,8 1,7 81 1,465 1,537 1,399 1,57 - BUY BUY 55% discount to NAV PPRO REDUCE HOLD 6% discount to NAV CONSUMER - DISCRE. LPKR 8 1, ,246 1,317 - HOLD HOLD 6% discount to NAV LPPF 19,1 21,8 2,46 2,477 2,865 2,94 2,547 3,41 BUY HOLD PE 22.5x 217F ASRI REDUCE HOLD 7% discount to NAV ACES HOLD BUY PE 22.x 217F DILD BUY - 7% discount to NAV RALS 1,44 1, BUY BUY PE 22.5x 217F CTRP BUY REDUCE 6% discount to NAV MAPI 6,6 3, BUY REDUCE DCF & PE 22.5x 217F TELE 88 1, BUY BUY PE 11.3x 217F SHIPPING CSAP BUY - DCF & PE** 15x 217F SOCI* BUY BUY 8.8x 217F PE ERAA BUY REDUCE PE 7.8x 217F TMAS 2,59 3, BUY BUY 11.x 217F PE WINS* (6) BUY HOLD DCF valuation CONSUMER - STAPLES HMSP 4,7 4,4 12,296 13,575 14,617 12,296 12,895 13,631 BUY BUY PE 4x 217F TELCOS MYOR 2,5 2,2 1,248 1,535 1,832 1,21 1,429 1,755 BUY BUY PE 36x 217F TLKM 5, 5, 2,59 22,853 25,844 17,64 2,371 22,95 BUY BUY DCF Valuation UNVR 45, 5,5 6,514 7,162 7,965 5,852 6,459 7,276 BUY BUY PE 48x 217F EXCL 3, 3, (247) ,183 1,381 BUY BUY DCF Valuation ICBP 1,5 1,5 3,876 4,91 4,275 3,651 4,91 4,69 BUY BUY PE 3x 217F TOWR 5,6 5,6 2,86 2,9 3,36 2,221 2,635 3,71 BUY BUY DCF 12M 217F INDF 9,8 9,65 4,498 4,512 4,652 4,23 4,466 4,873 BUY BUY PE 19x 217F ISAT 8,5 8,5 1,62 2,45 3,131 1,12 2,18 3,179 BUY BUY DCF Valuation TSPC 1,7 2, REDUCE BUY PE 15.5x 217F TBIG 5,1 5,75 1,374 1,559 1,694 1,43 1,357 1,577 REDUCE REDUCE EV/EBITDA 12.2x 217F ROTI 1,6 1, HOLD BUY PE 25.9x 217F KAEF 1,65 1, REDUCE REDUCE PE 3.x 217F TOURISM MIKA 2,55 2, HOLD HOLD DCF WACC 9.4% GIAA IJ* 4 4 (3) BUY REDUCE Adjusted EV/EBITDAR SILO 13,1 13, BUY BUY EV/EBITDA 26.4x 217F PANR IJ BUY - SOTP Valuation KLBF 1,88 2,5 2,229 2,451 2,71 2,218 2,458 2,721 BUY BUY PE 36.x 217F KINO 3,1 5, HOLD BUY PE 16.7x 217F TRANSPORTATION ASSA BUY BUY 11.9x 217F PE INDUSTRIAL ESTATES BIRD 2,9 2, HOLD REDUCE 1.3x 217F PE DMAS , BUY BUY 77% discount to NAV TAXI (12) REDUCE BUY.4X 217F P/BV KIJA BUY BUY 55% discount to NAV LPCK 8,3 8, ,158 - BUY BUY 66% discount to NAV SSIA BUY BUY 7% discount to NAV BEST REDUCE REDUCE 75% discount to NAV Source: Bahana estimates * Reporting currency in USD; earnings figures are in USDm 358

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In some cases, we may also charge a maximum of 2 million (including tax) per year as a standing proxy fee for our deposit of your securities, if you are a non-resident of Japan. For derivative and margin transactions etc., we may require collateral or margin requirements in accordance with an agreement made beforehand with you. Ordinarily in such cases, the amount of the transaction will be in excess of the required collateral or margin requirements. There is a risk that you will incur losses on your transactions due to changes in the market price of financial instruments based on fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, stock prices, real estate prices, commodity prices, and others. In addition, depending on the content of the transaction, the loss could exceed the amount of the collateral or margin requirements. There may be a difference between bid price etc. and ask price etc. of OTC derivatives handled by us. Before engaging in any trading, please thoroughly confirm accounting and tax treatments regarding your trading in financial instruments with such experts as certified public accountants. *The amount of the trading commission cannot be stated here in advance because it will be determined between our company and you based on current market conditions and the content of each transaction etc. When making an actual transaction, please be sure to carefully read the materials presented to you prior to the execution of agreement, and to take responsibility for your own decisions regarding the signing of the agreement with us. Corporate Name: Daiwa Securities Co. Ltd. Financial instruments firm: chief of Kanto Local Finance Bureau (Kin-sho) No.18 Memberships: Japan Securities Dealers Association, Financial Futures Association of Japan Japan Securities Investment Advisers Association Type II Financial Instruments Firms Association 363

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