# Please see the course lecture plan (at the end of this syllabus) for more detailed information on the topics covered and course requirements.

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4 Session Date Module Topic Learning Outcomes Reading Due 1 Tues, Aug 26 Introduction Introduction to simulation; Overview of this course. Big Data by McKinsey&Company (posted to BB) 2 Thurs, Aug 28 Simulation in Excel How-to's Randon number generation; Compute expected outcomes; Simulation in Excel and VBA (Optional, Understand that the expectation of a function does not equal the posted to HBS) function of the expectation. 3 Tues, Sept 2 Introduction: Decision-Making in an Uncertain World Review of Probability and Statistics Discrete and continuous random variables; Summary measures of random variables; Law of large numbers; Central limit theorem; Confidence intervals 4 Thurs, Sept 4 A Potpourri of Simulation Examples 5 Tues, Sept 9 Introduction 6 Thurs, Sept 11 More Simulation and Optimization 7 Tues, Sept 16 Stochastic Optimization 8 Thurs, Sept 18 Combining Solver See simulations for estimating the lead-time demand distribution, the single-server queue, and a simple project management; Understand the power and the limitations of spreadsheet-based simulation. Perform a simulation to analyze the simulation output. Review some basic inventory management (HBS online inventory management exercise); Implement an inventory model See the RiskOptimizer. Set up a simulation with two phases (upfront capactiy determination and then demand realization); See how to incorporate optimization into simulation. Determine the distribution of second stage cost; Record an Excel macro to be used during simulation. HBS core curriculum reading: Managing Inventory (Optional, posted to HBS) Installation HW1 HW2 9 Tues, Sept 23 Caution: What is random? 10 Thurs, Sept 25 Random Number Generation 11 Tues, Sept 30 More on Random Number Generation Input Modeling 12 Thurs., Oct 2 Determing the Input Distribution, part I Understand how uniform random numbers are generated; See the infamous randu example as a caution for what can go wrong. See the inversion method, the acceptance-rejection method, and the convolution method. Understand what is a Poisson process; Generate a Poisson process; Generate Normal random variables. See how to use historical data to decide on your simulation input; Understand the rationale for using certain common distributions; Make histogram, bar, and Q-Q plots to help decide on the appropriate input distribution. 13 Tues, Oct 7 Determining the Input Distribution, part II Estimate the input distribution parameters; Perform chi-square and Kolmogorov-Smirnov goodness-of-fit tests. HW3 14 Thurs, Oct 9 15 Tues, Oct 14 EXAM Review Installation of ExtendSim

5 Session Date Module Topic Learning Outcomes Reading and/ or Supplemental Material Due 16 Thurs, Oct 16 Introduction to discrete event simulation and ExtendSim Understand what is discrete-event simulation; Become familiar with the ExtendSim environment; ExtendSim Simulation Exercises in Process Analysis User's Guide, and Exercises (A) and (B) (posted to HBS) 17 Tues, Oct 21 More on ExtendSim See more of ExtendSim's features. Discrete-Event Simulation ExtendSim Simulation Exercises in Process Analysis (C) (posted to HBS) 18 Thurs, Oct 23 A panorama of ExtendSim models Dave Krahl from ExtendSim will guest lecture. HW4 19 Tues, Oct 28 Output Analysis See the difference between terminating and steady-state simulations; Understand the challenges of steady-state simulation; Define a time-average and an ensemble average. Group Project Proposal 20 Thurs, Oct 30 Process Analysis and Variability Recall how to calculate process capacity; Review the formula for expected wait time and expected queue-length; Understand why there is waiting even when there is "enough" capacity; Tie this in with ExtendSim. 21 Tues, Nov 4 Staffing Small Service Systems See how to use the queueing formulae when there are timevarying arrivals; Input historical data into ExtendSim; Discuss the impact of routing decisions on capacity (staffing) needs. Retail Bank Design Case (posted to BB) Case Preparation Questions 22 Thurs, Nov 6 Staffing Large Service Systems System Design 23 Tues, Nov 11 Network models Set up and solve an optimization problem to determine staffing levels; Learn the square-root-safety staffing rule; See how analysis and simulation complement each other. Learn an exact formula for the joint queue-length distribution that holds under restrictive assumptions; Test an approximation formula for accuracy using simulation Call Center Design for Lion Financial Services (posted to BB) Group Project Status Update 24 Thurs, Nov 13 Comparison of Alternative Systems, part I See an example that shows why there is a need for caution when comparing alternative system designs; Construct paired-t and modified two-sample-t confidence intervals. 25 Tues, Nov 18 Comparison of Alternative Systems, part II Use common random numbers to compare systems. HW5 Build two system designs in ExtendSim and compare their Case Fast Track Case (posted to BB); Cornell 26 Thurs, Nov 20 Routing in Service Systems performance; Words of wisdom on simulation model verification Preparation notes (posted to BB) and validation. Questions. 27 Tues, Nov 25 Thurs, Nov Tues, Dec 2 29 Thurs, Dec 4 Review Thanksgiving Holiday Project Presentations and Take-home final

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