Welcome to this lecture from the Insurance Institute of London

Transcription

1 Welcome to this lecture from the Insurance Institute of London CII CPD event accredited - demonstrates the quality of an event and that it meets CII/PFS member CPD scheme requirements. This lecture and podcast count as 45 minutes of CPD and can be included as part of your CPD requirement should you consider it relevant to your professional development needs. It is recommended that you keep any evidence of the CPD activity you have completed and upload copies to the recording tool as the CII may ask to see this if your record is selected for review.

2 How Finance Faces a Multi Polar Political World

3 The Borgenisation of British politics Source: Politicsresources.net

4 A close run thing Con: 34% Lab: 34% LD: 9% UKIP: 14% Green: 6% Election Forecast May 2015 Elections Etc Guardian Ladbrokes Odds Electoral Calculus 15 Apr 14 Apr 10 Apr 13 Apr 13 Apr 14 Apr Con Lab LD UKIP SNP Green Other Result Hung Hung Hung Hung Hung Hung Parties need at least 318 seats for a stable government

5 A close run thing Con: 34% Lab: 34% LD: 9% UKIP: 14% Green: 6% 1 Source: BBC Poll of Polls

6 Election Outcomes Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats - 25 Labour Conservatives Liberal Democrats - 28 Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats - 32 SNP SNP - 35 SNP - 45 UKIP - 2 UKIP - 4 UKIP - 5 Others - 18 Others - 23 Others - 18

7 Election Outcomes Conservatives EU referendum Consistent regulatory approach Labour No EU referendum Making markets fairer/interventionist approach Conservatives Labour Regulatory and fiscal uncertainty Second election?

8 Polling Trends Pass the peanuts, mate. Main party deadlock SNP builds on momentum Liberal Democrats focus no longer national UKIP dropping off Green Surge failed to gather momentum

9 Key Battlegrounds - Scotland

10 Key political battlegrounds UK Marginals

11 Disruptive Influences Insurgent parties Croydon Central Dumfries and Galloway Torbay

12 Disruptive Influences Voter Priorities

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14 Immediate priorities in Government Implement Vickers proposals Maintain pressure on FS remuneration Diversify FS sector with challenger banks & alternative sources of finance Northern powerhouse & wider capital investment In/Out EU Referendum No tax rises in the next parliament

15 Immediate priorities in Government Deficit reduction Change Corporate takeover rules Reform business & personal tax system Establish market share threshold for banks Annual Competition Audits Launch infrastructure commission

16 Other party priorities Make green energy top infrastructure investments priority. Pensions o Defined ambition o Secondary annuities market Advice o Support guidance process o Cost of advice Taxation o Further increase in personal allowance o Stronger action on tax evasion May not oppose a European Referendum Oppose an EU referendum. Enhanced devolution for Scotland. Control of business taxes. Targeted changes in tax allowances. Additional 180bn of investment in innovation and infrastructure. Support an FTT. Support EU referendum and UK exit. Fund higher standard of free advice Reoccupy seat at the WTO. Set up a Treasury Commission to stop artificial tax avoidance Introduce an Australianstyle points system for immigrants. Cut business rates for SMEs. Support EU referendum. Enhanced devolution for Northern Ireland. Control of corporation tax. 2bn increase in the block grant for Northern Ireland Opponents of an FTT. Increase support and access to finance for SMEs. Support EU referendum. Increase corp tax to 30% for large biz. Introduce an FTT. Strong opponents of TTIP. Introduce a Citizens Income & 60% top tax rate. Separate retail and investment banking. Introduce market caps for banks. Introduce a Green Industrial Strategy.

17 Implications 1. Constitutional EU referendum and possible Brexit. Fiscal Devolution. Scottish referendum. 2. Regulatory Consumer-driven stance towards business from regulators and policymakers. Market intervention and caps. Continuing focus on culture and competition. Cost of doing business. 3. Economic Deficit reduction/austerity. Market instability.

18 Too Close To Call

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