Motor Insurance The Rise of the Challengers

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1 Motor Insurance The Rise of the Challengers Finity Niche Insurer Conference Presented by Colin Brigstock 20 November Finity Consulting Pty Limited

2 Today s Presentation The impact of challengers on shopping & switching behaviour Some insights into the profile of customers who are shopping & switching 2

3 High Level Market Trends

4 Domestic Motor: A mature market $8.0 $7.0 Gross Written Premium ($B) Growing at about 6% p.a. $6.0 $5.0 $4.0 $3.0 About 2 of industry GWP $2.0 $1.0 $ Source: APRA Statistics

5 Domestic Motor: A very profitable class 100 U/W margin needed for 15% return Motor: Underwriting Performance 90 % of Gross Earned Premium Estimated at 2 of GWP Claims from ISA Experience Collision Theft Wscreen Events (Gross) Expense + Net Cost of R/I 5

6 Challenger brands are starting to bite Share of Premium Pool (Challenger Brands) Share of Premium Pool 8% 6% 4% 2% 1.4% 3.2% 3.7% 4.3% 4.9% % Year 6 Source: GI Company Level Statistics APRA

7 Example Pricing Strategy: Majors Vs Challengers Sydney Metro: Lower Rated Suburbs, 25+ Drivers, Newer Vehicles Sydney Metro: Higher Rated Suburbs, Under 25 Drivers, Older vehicles $1,200 $3,600 $3,200 $1,000 $2,800 $800 $2,400 $2,000 $600 $1,600 $400 $1,200 $800 $200 $400 $0 Major A Major B Major C Major D Chall. A Chall. B Chall. C Chall. D $0 Major A Major B Major C Major D Chall. A Chall. B Chall. C Chall. D Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 7 Source: Average Premiums derived from Market Finesse Quarterly Online Premium Collections

8 Challenger Brands: Typical pricing strategy All NSW Profile reflecting total insured population Targeted Market Targeted Market: 25+ year old drivers in selected low risk suburbs of Sydney with cars less than 5 years old Average Premium ($) Average Premium ($) Source: Finesse January 2013

9 Emerging Trends in Shopping Behaviour

10 Analysis of switching behaviour Derived from 6 monthly aggregation of monthly Roy Morgan Market Surveys of insurance purchases Losses to competitors on renewal can be derived (but not overall lapse rates) Overall Loyal Customers New Business Switchers Shopped renewals Market Share Statistics Total New + renewed Renewals which did not shop First time purchasers Gained From Competitors Renewed after shopping + Switchers Covers August 2009 to June 2013 Total in Sample Propensity to shop on renewal (A) Switching Risk for Renewal Shoppers (B) Renewal Propensity Statistics = = Renewed after Shopping + Lost to Competitor Total Renewals Due Lost to Competitor Renewed After Shopping + Lost to Competitor Risk of Loss to Competitor on Renewal (= A * B) = Lost to Competitor Total Renewals Due New Business Renewals at Risk First Time Purchasers Gained from Competitor Renewed Without Shopping Renewed After Shopping Renewals lost to competitor Inferred by asking switchers who was previous insurer 10 Core Survey data based on last transaction Matching transactions Includes loss of monthly instalment business during policy year

11 Market Share: First Time Purchasers Majors Challengers % % % Encumbents NSW Encumbents VIC Encumbents QLD Encumbents SA Encumbents WA 09H2 18% 16% 14% 12% 8% 6% 4% 2% 09H2 Trends Challenger in share brands of first grabbing time purchasers increasing suggests share of growth first time not yet purchasers exhausted. 11 Source: Analysis of Roy Morgan Survey Data

12 Behaviours of existing customers Propensity to Shop Majors Generally increasing Challengers Higher than majors, but not materially % 25% % 15% 5% 5% Switching Risk Majors Challengers Similar and sometimes lower! Source: Analysis of Roy Morgan Survey Data

13 Lapsed to Competitor Challengers now producing retention rates not materially above Majors Lapsed To Competitor 12% Majors Generally increasing 12% Challengers 8% 6% 4% 2% 8% 6% 4% 2% "Lapse Gap" 2.5% % % % Share of Switchers 10 Majors 4 Challengers and picking up increasing proportion of switchers 95% 9 09H2 35% 3 09H2 85% 25% 8 75% 7 65% 2 15% 5% 6 13 Source: Analysis of Roy Morgan Survey Data

14 Motor: Overall Market Share Rise of Challengers most noticeable in Eastern States Majors Challengers % 9 85% 8 09H2 18% 16% 14% 12% 8% 6% 09H2 75% 4% 2% 7 Aggregation of IAG, Suncorp, Allianz & Motor Clubs Shares from Roy Morgan Surveys consistent with GWP data 14 Source: Analysis of Roy Morgan Survey Data

15 Who are the shoppers and switchers? Presentation by Roy Morgan

16 Disclaimer This presentation is provided as general information only and does not constitute actuarial advice or investment advice. While Finity has taken reasonable care in compiling the information presented, Finity does not warrant that the information provided is relevant to a particular reader s situation, specific objectives or needs. You should not rely on the information in this report or disclose it or refer to it in any document. We accept no duty of care or liability to you or anyone else regarding this presentation and we are not responsible to you or anyone else for any loss suffered in connection with the use of this presentation or any of its content. Slid

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