MOBILE HEALTH MARKET REPORT THE IMPACT OF SMARTPHONE APPLICATIONS

Transcription

1 MOBILE HEALTH MARKET REPORT THE IMPACT OF SMARTPHONE APPLICATIONS ON THE MOBILE HEALTH INDUSTRY (VOL. 2) RELEASE DATE: 9 TH OF JANUARY 2012 VOLUME 3 : Access restricted to one specific user

2 1 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1 Preface Management summary Comparison of traditional and new mhealth market models (scope of the report) The impact of the new market model on mhealth The appearance of the new mobile application market model Market changes that impact the mhealth market Technology features that enable mhealth solutions The smartphone application market phenomena The increasing number of applications and app stores The growth of smartphone shipments and mobile platforms The decline in application prices on mobile platforms and app stores Market shares and growth of application market revenue Status of the mobile health application market mhealth app prevalence mhealth application pricing The smartphone mhealth applications landscape General healthcare & fitness Health tracking tools Managing medical conditions Medication compliance Fitness and nutrition applications Wellness Medical information Diagnostic tools Medical reference Continuing medical education (CME) Alerts and awareness Remote consultation and monitoring Remote monitoring Remote consultation/collaboration Emergency Healthcare management Logistical support Patients electronic health records (EHR/PHR) Sensor based applications Health and wellness monitoring Chronic condition monitoring Diagnostic tools... 70

3 2 8 Mobile health players Typical mhealth smartphone application developers Overview of mhealth activities of traditional healthcare and technology players The mhealth market trends and drivers Drivers of growth in the smartphone application market Key market trends that will shape the smartphone application market until Business model trends: paid downloads vs. alternative revenue sources Application technology trends: native versus web-based applications Platform dominance: end-to-end vs. horizontal platforms Smartphone application store market structure: oligopoly vs. competition Content: global versus regional/local applications mhealth market trends Buyers will continue to drive the market Applications will enter traditional health distribution channels mdevice differentiation will become big again Smartphone penetration rate will determine the dominant mhealth market model of a country nd generation mhealth applications will focus on chronic diseases mhealth business models will broaden The size of the mhealth market About research2guidance Our service offerings Our monitoring analyst team Contact us for LIST OF FIGURES Figure 2: Comparison of traditional and new mhealth market models (focus of the report)... 9 Figure 3: iphone shipments before and after the App Store launch (in millions) Figure 4: Healthcare expenditure as a percentage of GDP ( ) Figure 5: Mobile network download and upload speed comparison Figure 6: Number of applications published in marketplaces ( Q3) Figure 7: Number of applications per platform (2008 Q Q3) Figure 8: Newly added applications per platform (2008 Q Q3) Figure 9: New app store launches ( Q3) Figure 10: Number of smartphone application stores ( Q3) Figure 11: Smartphone share of global mobile device shipments (2007 Q Q3) Figure 12: Smartphone operating systems market share by shipments (2009 Q Q3) Figure 13: Average displayed paid application price in official OEM&OS application stores (2009 Q Q3) Figure 14: Application store share of total application downloads per period ( Q3) Figure 15: Average total daily downloads per application store (in millions) (2009 Q Q3) Figure 16: Paid smartphone application download revenue (in million USD) ( Q3) Figure 17: mhealth penetration in major application stores (Q2 2011)... 31

4 3 Figure 18: Number of mhealth applications per application store (Q2 2011) Figure 19: Number and share of mhealth applications per mobile platform (Q2 2011) Figure 20: mhealth application category share (Q2 2011) Figure 21: Share of total paid and free mhealth apps comparison 2011 vs Figure 22: Number of paid and free mhealth apps per application store (Q2 2011) Figure 23: Average price of paid mhealth and total applications per application store Figure 24: Average price comparison of mhealth application by app stores: 2010 vs Figure 25: Average price of paid mhealth applications per category (Q2 2011) Figure 26: Drivers and trends that will influence the mhealth application market ( ) Figure 27: Key trends in the smartphone application market ( ) Figure 28: The main driving forces for the growth of mhealth in upcoming years Figure 29: Main distribution channels for mhealth solutions as of today and in five years time Figure 30: Devices that offer the best business opportunities for mhealth as of today and in five years time? 87 Figure 31: Primary mhealth countries according to smartphone penetration vs. private health expenditure per capita in Figure 32: Therapy fields that offer the best market potential for mhealth solutions Figure 33: Major developments in mhealth business models ( ) Figure 34: mhealth market size by revenue type ( ) Figure 35: Shipments of mhealth sensors and devices (in million units) ( ) Figure 36: mhealth market opportunity by revenue type (cumulative ) Figure 37: mhealth application download numbers (free and paid) ( ) Figure 38: Installed base of smartphone and mhealth users ( ) Figure 39: mhealth subscriber number by service type ( ) LIST OF TABLES Table 1: Pre- and post-apple App Store launch application market Table 2: Main barriers and changes in mhealth market Table 3: Potential use cases of smartphone features in mhealth Table 5: mhealth applications categories Table 6: Specifications for quick reference of mhealth application categories (Legend) Table 7: General healthcare and fitness application metrics Table 8: Medical information application metrics Table 9: Remote consultation and monitoring application metrics Table 10: Healthcare management application metrics Table 11: Available sensor market overview Table 12: Examples and background of typical mhealth application publishers Table 13: European examples of traditional mhealth business models... 90

5 Preface 4 1 PREFACE research2guidance is a specialist research organization that focuses on providing insights into mobile market developments. Our aspiration is to provide business leaders with guidance and a fact-base that will assist them in better understanding the most important trends shaping mobile markets today. This report concentrates on the mobile health (mhealth) market, examining the impact of emerging trends and developments on the market. To access additional research documents on the smartphone applications market, please visit research2guidance offers different content and format options to provide you with the information that you need. A. Reports: Our reports explore the major trends and developments affecting the market in detail. Separate research papers cover both the entire market, as well as concentrating on specific parts of it. The reports contain key insights for companies looking to enter or deepen their engagement in the mobile applications market, providing data and analysis on all relevant aspects of the market to ease investment decision-making. B. Ready-to-use results (1-50 Power Point pages): Take advantage of our broad selection of Power Point presentation slides by selecting specific content that can easily be downloaded and incorporated into your presentations. C. Research projects: Projects are tailored specifically to address your mobile application market information needs. Examples of projects include: developer surveys, mobile application strategy definition, and competitor and country analysis. As with all research2guidance projects, the research behind these reports has not been commissioned or sponsored in any way by any business, government, or other institution. research2guidance

6 The mhealth market trends and drivers SMARTPHONE PENETRATION RATE WILL DETERMINE THE DOMINANT MHEALTH MARKET MODEL OF A COUNTRY In 4-5 years, most industrialized countries will have reached a smartphone penetration rate of more than %. The mhealth publishers in these countries, especially in those with above average private health expenditure, will be more likely concentrate on the new smartphonebased mhealth model rather than the traditional model. The figure below indicates which countries belong to this smartphone mhealth premier league. The and markets clearly stand out, demonstrating the optimal matrix for new mhealth market model uptake - above average private health expenditure, and high smartphone penetration and user numbers. Other countries like, and lag considerably, but still have markets of sufficiently significant size to support a vibrant mhealth industry. FIGURE 30: PRIMARY MHEALTH COUNTRIES ACCORDING TO SMARTPHONE PENETRATION VS. PRIVATE HEALTH EXPENDITURE PER CAPITA IN 2015 Private Healthcare Exp. per Capita* (US$) 10,500 9,000 7,500 6,000 4,500 3,000 1,500 Brazil 0 C 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Smartphone Penetration in 2015 Vertical: 30% benchmark line for smartphone penetration in 2015; Horizontal: Weighted average (population) private healthcare expenditure per capita in * Data are harmonized by WHO for international comparability; they not necessarily match the official statistics of the countries, which may use alternative methods. Expenditure given at average exchange rate from national currency to US$. ** Bubble size indicates total number of mobile subscribers in Source: rresearch2guidance, WHO, OECD. In developing countries with low smartphone penetration, traditional mhealth projects will remain the predominant market model. These projects will concentrate on providing mhealth solutions for simple phones (mainly SMS and Java based). Local MNOs will remain the key drivers within these markets.

7 The size of the mhealth market By the end of 2016, the total mhealth market revenue will grow by % (CAGR) to reach US$ billion. The main sources of revenues will not come from application download revenue itself but from mhealth services and hardware sales. Applications will become the platforms to sell other health services and hardware. FIGURE 33: MHEALTH MARKET SIZE BY REVENUE TYPE ( ) Revenues (US$ Millions) Advertisement Paid downloads 98 Transaction Device sales Services Source: research2guidance The development of multiple revenue streams will accelerate after 2012, by which time the number of sophisticated solutions offering remote monitoring and consultation solutions will have become sufficiently numerous that patients and HCPs will be widely aware of them, and will start to use them on a broader scale. Escalating use of a growing number of 2 nd generation mhealth applications will trigger subscription sales of monitoring services as well as sales of sensors and other medical technologies. Revenues generated from application downloads alone will continue to grow in line with the overall smartphone applications market, and will amount to US$ million 36 in Healthcare services delivered through smart devices will become the biggest revenue stream in the mhealth market reaching over US$. billion in The growth will be based on simple monitoring and compliance applications which currently cost less than US$ per month, and a smaller number of advanced services which include access to stand-by telemedicine staff that typically cost around US$ per month. Stand-alone devices will be used by two main target groups mhealth service subscribers that need a piece of equipment such as a scale or sensor to use their application, as well as the general health and fitness interested group of mhealth users. Applications will trigger 36 Gross revenue minus commission to app store of on average 30%

8 About research2guidance ABOUT RESEARCH2GUIDANCE research2guidance is a market intelligence and consultancy company specializing in the mobile apps market. OUR SERVICE OFFERINGS Reports and PowerPoint slide-sets: market insights on selected topics Bespoke research: custom-made research for your individual needs Knowledge center: a subscription to a wealth of data, analysis, profiles, and daily news and opinion Consulting services: projects tailored to assist you in developing your mobile strategy OUR MONITORING ANALYST TEAM Ralf-Gordon Jahns Ralf is the research director of research2guidance. He has worked for more than 17 years in the telecom and media industry. Prior to research2guidance he worked as a partner for Capgemini Telecom Media & Networks. Ralf is a frequent keynote speaker on mobile industry events, publisher of a multitude of mobile market reports and executive consultant of more than 30 clients in the telecom and media industry. Egle Mikalajunaite Egle is a senior research analyst at research2guidance specializing in the mobile industry. She has a track record in market research and data analysis of more than five years. Prior to research2guidance she has worked for Ernst & Young, AC Nielsen and Euromonitor International. Dan Sun Dan is a research analyst at research2guidance. She has conducted several global survey campaigns in e- business and provides intelligence network support for consultancy and investment companies. She specializes in the key trends and developments of the industry-specific mobile strategy.

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