Possible consequences of a volcanic crisis in southern Italy

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1 Possible consequences of a volcanic crisis in southern Italy Carolina Garcia PhD Student Università di Milano Bicocca Content Volcanic Products Italian Volcanoes Principal Active Italian Volcanoes Campi Flegrei Etna Stromboli Vesuvio Conclusions

2 Volcanic Products: potentially dangerous - Tephra fall acid rain - Bombs - blocks - Pyroclastic flow - Lahar mud and debris flow - Lava flow - Landslides (debris avalanches) - Gass emission (fumaroles) UCL, 2009 Italian Volcanoes Volcanoes < 2 Ma Extinct Underwater Active (including quiescent)

3 Vulcano: - Last event Moderate explosions with blocks - Quiescent state tourists in summer Active Volcanoes Ischia: - Last event 1302, lava flows -Surface movements landslides tsunamis -Earthquakes: 1881 (129 deaths); 1883 (2313 deaths) Pantelleria: Campi Flegrei Soddu, Last eruption (last 1891) - CO 2 degassing Vulcano - Hazard crater lake (Specchio di Venere) - Recent deformation Vesuvio Stromboli Uni Roma3 Pantelleria Etna INGV Uni Roma3 ETNA Very active volcano Continuously erupting Bender, 2009

4 Etna Evolution years ago until present ISAT, 2006 Double eruption (2001) Hypothesis of a contemporary rise of magma in two conduits Fissure eruption (2003) Etna s Volcanic Hazards Lava flows (continous) - Lava fountains - Usually affects limited areas around the vent. Except 2003 close to Nicolosi INGV

5 Eruptions - Open conduit: usually eruptions of low intensity Marco Tomasello Many lateral eruptions High intensity eruption low probability Last big eruption 1669, (partial destruction of Catania) - Degassing (also continuous) - Tephra fall

6 Superficial Seismicity Piano protezione civile sit.protezionecivilesicilia.it/opcm 3278/ webgis.protezionecivilesicilia.it/m swebgis/

7 Suddivisione del territorio La metodologia

8 Vulnerabilità Esposizione

9 Calcolo del rischio Mappa del rischio

10 Pericolosità Danneggiamento potenziale

11 Le procedure INDICATORI DI EVENTO E RISPOSTA DI PROTEZIONE CIVILE INDICATORI DI EVENTO - MONITORAGGIO RISPOSTA DI PROTEZIONE CIVILE o Quiete Operativa o Allerta» Attenzione» Preallarme» Allarme Allerta

12 Preallarme Allarme

13 MODELLO D INTERVENTO Il raggiungimento delle fasi di allerta prevede l immediata attivazione di una serie di procedure, precisamente: Il Prefetto, informato dall I.N.G.V. del raggiungimento delle soglie di allerta, si avvale delle strutture a sua disposizione che sono: CCS (Centro Coordinamento Soccorsi); Sala Operativa della Prefettura; COM. STROMBOLI

14 Last 13,000 yrs: -Several growth periods - 4 main collapses of the NW flank From Tibaldi (2001) Volcanic Hazards Strombolian Eruption - Bombs - rocks

15 Rolling Blocks Boulder n. 25, with vegetation HOUSES

16 Volcanic Hazards Strombolian Eruption - Ash and gases Gabriel Giuffrida Volcanic Hazards Strombolian Eruption - Lava fountains Swiss educ

17 Volcanic Hazards Tsunamis Volcanic Hazards - Tsunamis Sciara del Fuoco December 30th 2002 Sciara del Fuoco Gaetano Fancello Protezione Civile, 2006

18 Landslide Tsunami, Dec 2002 Photo Philippe Guillemin Photo Philippe Guillemin Tsunami Heights

19 Swiss educ Hazards - Landslides lateral failure

20 LITHOTECHNICAL SECTION LB B P HAZARD - Massive Landslide Water- Magma Interaction

21 Thin rock layer Magmatic chamber close to the surface Unstable zone

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24 Contact of magma - water Freato-magmatic eruption

25 Paroxysmal Eruption Worst Case Escenario

26 Monitoring Network Emergency plans for Tsunami for Eruption

27 Mitigation Works Tsunamis Rock Falls

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29 Campania More than 3 Ma hab. exposed ( in high risk) Costa e Martini, 2009 CAMPI FLEGREI campi ardenti field of fire

30 Volcanic Structure No central chamber eruption could start anywhere INGV ~ 1.5 million people live within the caldera (350,000 in the most active portion) Alexander, 2006 Volcanic History Last eruption AD 1538 Latest unrest episodes: - Several seismic crisis : earthquakes temporary evacuation of Pozzuoli and 1989: earthquakes and uplift in Solfarata - Continuous uplift (3.5 m in Pozzuoli) Possible future eruption (Explosive index VEI 3 to 5 subplinian to plinian) High volcanic hazard + intense urbanization EXTREMELY HIGH RISK UniRoma3

31 Emergency Plan: 2 possible scenarios 1538 BC and 4000 BC (Agnano Montespina) Agnano-Monte Spina Eruption Risk Map for Piroclastic Flows ISAT, 2006 Yellow zone: pyroclastic flows; lines: ash fall Protezione Civile, 2006 Red zone -Pyroclastic flows Yellow Zone - Tephra fall Risk Microzonification Map, Flegrea Area Based on AD 1538 eruption Really High Risk: Pozzuoli and Napoli Difficult prediction: crisis don t always precede an eruption (ex ) Incorrect crisis management - General panic - Victims - Relocation of people into incorrect zones (also high risk)

32 VESUVIO The dormant Giant INGV > people in high risk Costa e Martini, 2009

33 Increasing urbanization Alberico et al., 2004

34 Eruption 79 A.D. -Plinian eruption: VEI 5 (really strong - catastrophic) Eruption 1631 Sub plinian eruption: VEI 3-4 (strong -violent)

35 Eruption 1906 Eruption 1944 Strombolian or vulcanian: VEI 2 (moderate-explosive) Costa e Martini, 2009 Eruption 1944 Deposits distribution Osservatorio Vesuviano, 2006 Osservatorio Vesuviano, 2006

36 Eruption 1944 The Avellino Eruption (1660 BC) Twice as powerfull as AD 79 Pyroclastic flows travelling up to 15 km from vent; ; 3 m deep in Naples area Plinian to Ultraplinian: VEI 6 (really strong-paroxistic)

37 Previous eruptions: Strombolian o vulcanian: VEI 2 (moderate-explosive) Sub plinian: VEI 3-4 (strong -violent) -79 AC Pompei - Plinian: VEI 5 (really strong - catastrophic) BC Avellino Eruption Plinian to Ultraplinian: VEI 6 (really strong-paroxistic) Previous plinian eruptions (last 25 ka BP) Tephra deposits Pyroclastic Flows Rolandi, 2010

38 Sarno Disaster,, May 5, 1998 Lahar 160 deaths 335 Millions Euro Associated hazards 30 h of heavy rain ( mm) on air fall deposits debris flows (Pareschi et al., 2000) Cumulative isopachs of air-fall deposits La citta di Salerno, 2008 First Italian National emergency planning Statistical Model (based on repose time) 99% Prob. of Sub-Plinian Eruption or less, VEI 3-4 EMERGENCY PLAN Like in 1631 A.D. 1% Plinian 30% Subplinean 69% Strombolian

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43 Evoluzione del piano 1991 Prima Commissione - linee guida per la valutazione del rischio connesso ad un eruzione in area Vesuviana 1993 Seconda Commissione - Piano nazionale di emergenza per l area l vesuviana 1995 Prima versione del Piano nazionale di emergenza 2001 Primo aggiornamento del Piano 2003 Nomina dell attuale Commissione per l aggiornamento continuo del Piano The Hazard Zones (medium scale scenario) Dipartimento della Protezione Civile

44 Most dangerous zone (~( 200 km 2 ) neighbouring the volcano. Possibly affected by: - pyroclastic flows - mudflows THE RED ZONE - thick accumulation of fallout deposits (bombs, lapilli and ash) Includes 18 municipalities, ~ 600,000 people Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Possibly affected by fallout ash and lapilli (~ 1100 km2) THE YELLOW ZONE Intensity of damage depends on: - height of the eruptive column - direction of the high winds Includes 96 municipalities (Napoli Province) 1,100,000 hab. Dipartimento della Protezione Civile

45 THE BLUE ZONE inside yellow Mudflows and floods associated with the eruption. 14 municipalities with 180,000 people. Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Monitoring Center Osservatorio Vesuviano 24/7 surveillance with Multiple monitoring techniques Automatic posting on the web

46 THE STRATEGY Yellow Zone Main hazards associated with tephra fallout : - roofs collapse, - traffic disruption and - crops damage Only at the beginning of the eruption, could be possible to determine most affected area. Only affected people (~( 200,000) will be evacuated and accommodated in Campania. THE STRATEGY Red Zone Due to velocity and destructive power of pyroclastic flows, to avoid a disaster the red zone population will need to TOTALLY EVACUATE the area BEFORE the eruption. 7 days needed to evacuate Dipartimento della Protezione Civile

47 Alert Levels Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Expected weeks or months before a large eruption: - Deformation - Uplift of the volcanic edifice - Anomalous seismicity - Variations in the gravimetric, magnetic, and electric fields - Variations in chemical composition in gas and water Increase of: - Gases emission - Temperature Precursor Phenomena

48 PLAN: Twinning Send people outside of the Campania region, twinning merging Vesuvian municipalities and Italian regions together. Dipartimento della Protezione Civile High levels of uncertainty No forecasting capability is realistic Style of future eruption?.. > Sub-plinian plinian? Volcanological limits of the flow hazard zone coincide with municipality limits It s s necessary to consider really little warning (<1 week) Different wind directions BUT... Rolandi, 2010

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50 What to do to reduce the risk? -To clear the red zone (Evacuation exercise Somma Vesuvio Mesimex 2006: 2000 people/5 days) - Prepare the population - It s fundamental perform educational campaigns to exposed population to explain: - volcanic risks - possible false alarms - uncertainty Massive exodus Epilogue Photo: PNAS

51 Thank you! Grazie Further information at: Protezione Civile Università Roma 3 J.M.W. Turner. Vesuvius in Eruption. Watercolor and scraping out /4 x 155/8(286 X 397 mm.). The British Art Center, New Haven, CT.

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