Predictive Modeling and Big Data

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1 Predictive Modeling and Presented by Eileen Burns, FSA, MAAA Milliman Agenda Current uses of predictive modeling in the life insurance industry Potential applications of 2 1 June 16, 2014 [Enter presentation title in footer] Copyright 2007

2 Agenda Current uses of predictive modeling in the life insurance industry Potential applications of 3 Predictive Modeling 2010 SOA call for papers on predictive modeling for life insurers: involves "mining" datasets and performing statistical analysis that may uncover unexpected relationships about the underlying risks that may indicate the likelihood of future outcomes for an insurer. 4 2 June 16, 2014 [Enter presentation title in footer] Copyright 2007

3 Types of Predictive Models Ordinary Least Squares Generalized Linear Models Generalized Additive Models Bayesian Models CART Boosted trees Random forests K-means clustering Linear programming 5 Nonlinear programming Simulated annealing Genetic algorithms Agent-based models Neural networks MARS Robust regression Semiparametric regression Ordinary Least Squares and Generalized Linear Models response 㐲 0response 1 p predictor predictor predictor 6 3 June 16, 2014 [Enter presentation title in footer] Copyright 2007

4 CART and Random Forests 7 K-means Clustering 8 4 June 16, 2014 [Enter presentation title in footer] Copyright 2007

5 Optimization models, and Simulated Annealing 9 Agent-based Models 10 5 June 16, 2014 [Enter presentation title in footer] Copyright 2007

6 Agenda Current uses of predictive modeling in the life insurance industry Potential applications of Dimensions of data 12 Volume Velocity Variety Implications for modeling with Imposes restrictions on data cleaning feasibility Requires new methods for analysis Shifts focus to correlation rather than causation Implications for users of Why? Precision June 16, 2014 [Enter presentation title in footer] Copyright 2007

7 Types of Personal 13 Credit Consumer spending Health Social network Fit bit Grouped Regional Employer Healthcare provider Demographic Some restrictions apply! Agenda Current uses of predictive modeling in the life insurance industry Potential applications of q x 14 7 June 16, 2014 [Enter presentation title in footer] Copyright 2007

8 Current uses of predictive modeling in the life insurance industry Underwriting Pricing Policyholder behavior q x Agent performance Product design 15 Agenda Current uses of predictive modeling in the life insurance industry Potential applications of /14 John Smith 16 8 June 16, 2014 [Enter presentation title in footer] Copyright 2007

9 Property & Casualty Insurance Car insurance Homeowners Workers comp Health Credit Bureaus /14 John Smith 17 Agenda Current uses of predictive modeling in the life insurance industry Potential applications of q x 18 9 June 16, 2014 [Enter presentation title in footer] Copyright 2007

10 Potential Applications of Directional marketing Scoring algorithms for underwriting Further refine experience analysis Base and dynamic lapse Guarantee utilization Annuitization q x 19 Q&A Eileen Burns, FSA, MAAA /14 John Smith q x June 16, 2014 [Enter presentation title in footer] Copyright 2007

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