Belgian pigmeat market. The. EPP Congress René MAILLARD Manager Belgian Meat Office VLAM. Saturday 2. June 2007 Ghent

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1 1 The Belgian pigmeat market EPP Congress 2007 René MAILLARD Manager Belgian Meat Office VLAM Saturday 2. June 2007 Ghent

2 2 Content 1. Belgian facts&figures 2. EU Retail 3. Meat in retail implications for Belgian exporters 4. SWOT analysis of the Belgian pigmeat sector

3 Pig slaughterings in Belgium 3 Slaughterings (animals)

4 Pigmeat production in Belgium 4 Production x kg (2006 = estimate)

5 Pigmeat consumption in Belgium 5 Consumption (cwe) kg

6 Domestic supply (%)pigmeat Belgium 6 Domestic supply 240% 220% 200% % 180% 160% 140% 120% 100%

7 Belgian exports (in tons) (forecast) 600,797

8 Belgian exports (x euro) (forecast) 1,031,318

9 Belgian exports by country (in tons) 9

10 10 Content 1. Belgian facts&figures 2. EU Retail 3. Meat in retail implications for Belgian exporters 4. SWOT analysis of the Belgian pigmeat sector

11 Stagnation of EU retail meat volumes means price wars!... and differentiation 11 Fresh meat retail sales by country in Europe ('000 tons cwe) (% p.a.) country past trend future trend France 2,783 2,767 2,772 2, % +0.0% Italy 2,442 2,528 2,500 2, % -0.2% Spain 2,088 2,249 2,092 2, % -1.2% Germany 1,783 1,750 1,768 1, % +0.2% UK 1,697 1,702 1,672 1, % -0.3% Poland 1,368 1,515 1,657 1, % +1.5% all other 4,313 4,428 4,619 4, % +0.7% EU25 16,474 16,940 17,080 17, % +0.1% Source: GIRA

12 The 3 main approaches to modern meat marketing with major influence on the meat industry structure/supply-chain 12 British Superstore approach: radiating into NW Europe Industrial case ready predominates Heavily sub-retail branded under umbrella fascia brand Choice and value-for-money Convenience and added-value Centralised management control of everything National suppliers of case-ready, retail brands German hard discount approach: rapid growth (EU) now in meat (De) Narrow, basic range Low prices Industrial case ready National suppliers of case ready, fantasy retail brands French Hypermarket approach: increasingly popular outside France Big range via mix of self-service & counter-sales Back of store butchery Low price and often poor image for meat Weak retail branding Regional suppliers of primals & carcasses

13 Hard discounter sales of fresh meats are rising fast 13 Hard Discounter Vol. share of 3 main meats % 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Germany 17% 22% 27% 33% France 2% 9% 12% 16% Total 3% 5% 8% 11% Spain 3% 4% 5% 6% next 12 1% 2% 5% 7% UK 1% 2% 3% 5% Italy for 1% the German 1% HD in meat in 3% Belgium 5% Poland 0% 1% 4% 8% Source: GIRA research & forecasts 2005 German discounters have the fascia credibility to succeed in fresh meat (although currently not profitable) Credibility elsewhere is growing as well but more difficult German data includes soft discounters Pressure for low prices % of volume of beef/veal, pigmeat and poultry

14 Traditional retail meat channels butchers in continuous decline Traditional Share of Sales of Meats % 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% France 24% 20% 18% 14% Source: GIRA research & forecasts traditional channels are in decline, but will not Italy 41% 35% 33% 32% Spain 52% 49% 46% 43% disappear overnight... still important in South & Germany 32% 23% 20% 14% East Europe UK 12% 9% 8% 8% Poland 98% 78% 65% 50% next 12 37% 29% 25% 21% Total 39% 33% 29% 25% '000 tons cwe of beef/veal, pigmeat and poultry

15 15 Content 1. Belgian facts&figures 2. EU Retail 3. Meat in retail implications for Belgian exporters 4. SWOT analysis of the Belgian pigmeat sector

16 Pan-European meat in retail implications for Belgian exporters European meat retailing is developing in 3 geographic zones which will require different marketing & logistics approach: N-W Europe: UK, Ei., NL, Scan, De (part): Hilton/Tesco type model. Scope for Belgian meat in selective retail niches. Need retailer approval, and then direct supply of primals to either retail packers and/or further processors South-central: Fr, It (part), Es, De (part): back-of-store butchery and/or counter service: fragmented and more regional supply chains. Greater need for local salesforce and/or agents for sale of primals and/or carcasses + B2B marketing focus Periphery EU: Baltics, Greece, It (part), NMS (part): traditional retail still dominates via wholesalers and local processors. Carcass trade. Less scope for Belgian suppliers. Belgian exporters need to be clear on the retailing potential of their customers and to offer the appropriate product / service at the right time same principle for sales to further processors know your customer's needs 16

17 EU meat market trends : markets becoming more hostile and even more competitive 17 Retail sector shows almost no fresh meat growth Fight for market share with price being one of the key weapons Catering and industrial users are even more cost conscious Growth of the hard discount price point in retail Hard discounters themselves facilitated by industrial case ready Economy price offers, and price promotions from mainstream retailers More dynamic segmentation of meat marketing Concentration of meat retailing: fewer buyers! Decline of traditional & specialist butchers Continued concentration of mainstream food retailing Shift to industrial case ready fresh meat packaging Cost efficiency Solves problem of skilled retail staff shortages Increased 3 rd country import penetration in EU Success of specialist, customer-focused, retail packers State-of-art technology Marketing benefits Emphasis on cost efficiency of slaughter and primary cutting

18 Market conclusions for the Belgian 'red' meat sector 18 The Belgian industry has a strong supply position to the domestic market, which is significantly different to other NW EU markets Preference for lean 'red' meat, from breeds which the Belgian industry focuses on Preference for domestic origin Large size of the fresh elaborated meats market Customers basically happy with existing relationships and service No major sign of a switch to imported meat Belgian meat retailing will not change nearly as fast, or dramatically, as in remainder of NW Europe Counter-service and specialist butchers are in slower decline Hard discounters already have established, existing counter-sales Increase in future domestic share of Belgian meat output Belgian production decline will cut back export volumes 3 rd country competitors will grow share of EU imports Export markets for Belgians are going to get tougher

19 Industry conclusions for Belgian 'red' meat sector 19 Belgian meat industry is unusually fragmented and non-integrated: Farms are relatively small and independent even for EU Slaughter stage fragmented: Pg & Bf Secondary cutting often stand-alone: Pg & Bf: unusual FP is stand-alone: (as normal) Normally mono-species: unusual Problems due to lack-of-scale: Lack of production scale economies Excess slaughter capacity too much competition Unconvincing customer relationships (especially for export) Risk minimisation difficult: lack of scale and/or range of activities Family ownership makes restructuring difficult German exports are distorted by current wage differentials Trend reversal towards export of carcasses and bone-in cuts Margin problems for the export oriented, secondary cutting sector

20 20 Content 1. Belgian facts&figures 2. EU Retail 3. Meat in retail implications for Belgian exporters 4. SWOT analysis of the Belgian pigmeat sector

21 The Belgian Meat Chain or: "How different can you get"?! 21 Defying normal meat production logic, the Belgian processors & their market have many fundamental differences with their neighbours : The Product 1 A unique animal in both the Piétrain and the Belgian Blue: - very lean : fat on fresh meat is rejected by BE consumers - excellent meat yields 2 No standardisation of animals. Even the Integrators don't produce the "same" pig Industry Structure 1 Highly fragmented slaughtering - no one has >8% of the kill 2 Highly un-integrated structure (except veal) 3 Continuing strong family ownership of slaughtering and cutting with real operational know-how but which makes change difficult 4 Gross overcapacity : slaughterhouses only work a maximum of 4-5 days per week, 8 hours per day even pig abattoirs are often working at 50% of capacity leading to higher prices paid for animals 5 No one investing in slaughterhouse modernisation 6 Slaughterhouses in sub-urban sites - no room for expansion / rationalisation

22 How different can you get"?! (2) 22 Clients 1 Belgian modern retailers actually want to have a large number of suppliers 2 Belgian slaughterers don't want to have direct contact with their (foreign) clients - but many clients would like to have direct contact with them! Belgian Consumers 1 Have little attachment to Belgian-produced meat ( foreign is best ) 2 Want a product that's so lean it has "no" taste! - Luckily the Belgian Blue and the Piétrain are the only animals lean enough for them! 3 Are willing to spend a lot on food and still shop traditionally The Belgian Miracle Belgium is an inefficient producer, slaughterer and processor of meat (compared to what its neighbours produce). Yet it manages to compete with NL, DK and DE on export markets and clients don't complain about high prices. A miracle! BEWARE because competition is getting tougher Don t loose faith in the miracle but it needs to evolve and this is difficult to orchestrate and/or be proactive on. But it must evolve.

23 General characteristics of the EU meat industry 23 EU meat sector is made up of a set of parallel meat chains: Different companies in each country generally fragmented (especially for 'red' meat) Different companies between 'red' meat and poultry Not forward integrated (in 'red' meat) Becoming more national scale but from a local/regional background Meat industry characterised by poor operating results Excess capacity: Low margins and low growth Mainly privately owned, with some farmer-coops Bad image, not transparent... and not well organised for crises Recent international M&A led by Vion and Danish Crown has really awoken the sector

24 Top EU Red Meat Companies Production Volume (2003/04 data) Primary processing volume ('000 tons cwe) Group Company Owner Country Beef & type veal Pigmeat Total Vion Group / Sovion Dumeco NL Nordfleisch DE Moksel DE Hendrix Meat Group NL Südfleisch** DE Vion Group / Sovion Total Farm Union NL 421 1,650 2,072 Danish Crown Danish Crown DK 78 1,600 1,678 Tulip GB Sokolow * StockMkt* PL Danish Crown Total Coop DK 85 1,921 2,006 3 Tönnies Private DE Westfleisch (incl.barfus) Coop DE Socopa Coop FR ABCS Private FR Grampian Private UK Cooperl Coop FR Swedish Meats Coop SE PROINSERGA / Primayor Foods Coop ES Floch Marchand (Glon Sanders) Private FR Animex / Morliny (Smithfield) StockMkt PL Dawn Group UK Dawn Group IE Queally Total Private IE Terrena (Soviba) Coop FR ABP UK AIBP IE Irish Food Processors Private IE SVA (Intermarché) Retail FR Europig (Cecab) Coop FR Gausepohl Private DE Ti-Can Coop DK Esfosa Private ES UK IE Kepak Private IE Kermené (Leclerc) Retail FR El Pozo Private ES Covavee Coop BE Duda Private PL Norfrisa Private ES Farmutil (Stoklosa) Private PL Inalca (Cremonini) StockMkt IT HK Ruokatalo FI Rakvere EE Rîgas Miesnieks LV HK Ruokatalo Total* StockMkt FI Foyle Private UK Grand Total - Top 30 2,482 8,331 10,813 Processing is still fragmented at EU level European meat industry competition is fragmented and small compared with North American corporate scale in corporate & factory production, and marketing Almost no packer brands Except in chicken Normally limited to homecountry processing wave of concentration (and internationalisation) currently driven by the main exporting companies (in Dk and NL) Most big firms are actively retail packing as a key part of the channel to retail 24

25 Vion and Danish Crown are by far the largest EU 'red' meat firms 25 HK Ruokatalo Total* Farmutil (Stoklosa) Duda El Pozo Kepak Ti-Can Europig (Cecab) Irish Food Processors Dawn (Queally) Total Floch Marchand (Glon Sanders) Swedish Meats Grampian Socopa Tönnies Vion Total Top EU Red-Meat Companies, estimates Beef & Veal Pigmeat Poultry Source: Gira estimates; Meat in Retail Meat Production '000t cwe

26 Some of the other major European developments 26 Irish cross-border M&A of UK beef - successful investment in crucial market Danish Crown - sets the pace domestic concentration scale efficiency to service customers UK M&A investment in key market (and also Germany) Sokolow (Po) / Ruokatalo broaden portfolio the Dutch respond! with ZLTO funding Grampian major UK multi-species player is vulnerable UK supply chain rationalisation e.g. ABP for Sainsbury beef Smithfield investments in Po, Fr, UK, Ro (some) expected concentration in French pigmeat.?

27 Belgian export performance has been OK but the outlook is threatening 27 '000t c.w.e. Vol '000t c.w.e. Vol Be/Lu Pigmeat Balance Summary e 2005f Be/Lu Beef & Veal Balance Summary e 2005f Production GIP Export Consumption Import Source: GIRA Meat Club, based on Eurostat historic Production GIP Consumption Export Import Source: GIRA Meat Club, based on Eurostat historic Belgian pigmeat and beef export volumes (and prices) are threatened by a combination of: Environmental pressure to reduce livestock production Increased import penetration? From neighbouring Fr, De and NL From 3 rd countries (especially Brazil) Vertical and horizontal consolidation amongst key competitors Changes in buying policies by both retailers and further processors Focus on low cost, from fewer suppliers Exports more crucial for Be pigmeat sector

28 Germany is the key export market for Belgian pigmeat, with NL and It much smaller 28 Export of fresh and frozen Pork Country 2004 Germany Netherlands Italy France UK South-Korea Greece Russia Others TOTAL Export Vol T pw 307,353 69,815 54,915 38,876 35,648 18,592 14,802 13,021 62, ,786 Export Value k 555, , ,716 63,128 64,745 40,835 25,890 12,503 90,795 1,065,485 Export price /T pw 1,808 1,534 1,907 1,624 1,816 2,196 1, ,447 1,730 Export Value % 52% 10% 10% 6% 6% 4% 2% 1% 9% 100% Cumul. Export value % 52% 62% 72% 78% 84% 88% 90% 91% 100% Source: N.B.B. + calculations VLAM & GIRA German export volumes have held up and the price seems OK in spite of severe labour-cost competition Dutch export volumes have grown at low prices Italian export volumes are steady at a price premium reflecting cuts

29 Strengths: are mainly derived from the lean meat breeds and everything which is associated with this 29 Lean meat breeds and their differentiation at all stages Preference in domestic market Preference with some export customers Resilience and professionalism of the farmers The emphasis is on lean rather than origin which is good Domestic customer loyalty to local suppliers Little real push to change Generally positive feedback from export customers Established customer-base Company relationships and reputation (especially the cutting plants) VLAM Certus, Meritus and BCV Resilience and operational credibility of the main processors

30 Weaknesses mainly arise from the large number of players active in every stage of the chain 30 Fragmentation of the industry Age and (sub-urban) location of many of the plants Lack of scale in everything (production & marketing) Overcapacity and difficulty in concentration (lack of focal points, resource constraints etc.) Vulnerability/risk profile of some of the stand-alone secondary cutting plants Lack of transparency & traceability Low (if not negative) image of Belgium in export markets Quality variability Little political support - and likely decline in farm output Competitive pressure from larger competitors all around Poor record of Belgian industry co-operation General lack of strategic ideas and confidence in the future

31 Opportunities mainly relate to small incremental improvements on current systems More direct sales relationships with customers transparency criticism means communication need more collective support to Belgian assurance and traceability schemes more targeting of priority customers & markets (e.g. Italy, UK ) more joint-sales and generic-marketing (e.g. Korea Italy) react when and if retail customers require industrial case-ready Continual efforts for meat quality improvements PSE e.g. more stress negative genetics, practices etc. More quality consistency Industry concentration to reduce costs Opportunistic horizontal and/or vertical consolidation Industry restructuring plan? (vis. NL, Ireland ) Focus on being the (low profile) alternative to the major exporters / processors Joint purchasing of selective inputs Utilise new waste-processing technologies 31

32 Threats are numerous and need attention 32 The rise of the hard discount price point in processed products and fresh meat In key German export market and: elsewhere including Belgium Vion, Danish Crown (large corporate) competitive attack Competing for Belgian animals (live exports and carcasses) Competing for selective customers (HD, FP, some mainstream retail niches) Downward price pressure through superior efficiency and scale-economies Brazil and other 3 rd country suppliers (especially for pigmeat) In Belgian export markets / customers (selectively) in the Belgian domestic market Slaughter volume decline: mounting farming pressures Further environmental pressures on farmers Impact of CAP Reform, more EU competition and less producer subsidy Possibility of changes in domestic retail structure / strategy Further disease / contamination crises

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