An overview of modern monetary theory

Transcription

1 An overview of modern monetary theory (From Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle, by Jordi Galí, 2008, Princeton University Press) This course offers an simple introduction to the basic frame work and a discussion of its policy implications. The need for a framework that can help us understand the links between monetary policy and the aggregate performance of an economy seems self-evident: On the one hand, citizens of modern societies have good reason to care about developments in inflation, employment, and other economy-wide variables, for those developments affect to an important degree people s opportunities to maintain or improve their standard of living.

2 On the other hand, monetary policy, as conducted by central banks, has an important role in shaping those macroeconomic developments, both at the national and supranational levels. Changes in interest rates have a direct effect on the valuation of financial assets and their expected returns, as well as on the consumption and investment decisions of households and firms. Those decisions can in turn have consequences for gross domestic product (GDP) growth, employment, and inflation. It would thus seem important to understand how those interest rate decisions end up affecting the various measures of an economy s performance, both nominal and real. A key goal of monetary theory is to provide us with an account of the mechanisms through which those effects arise, i.e., the transmission mechanism of monetary policy. Central banks do not change interest rates in an arbitrary or whimsical manner. Understanding what should be the objectives of monetary policy and how the latter should be conducted in order to attain those objectives constitutes another important aim of modern monetary theory in its normative dimension.

3 Real Business Cycle (RBC) Theory and Classical Monetary Models The impact of the RBC revolution had both a methodological and a conceptual dimension. (Kydland and Prescott (982)). From a methodological point of view, RBC theory firmly established the use of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models as a central tool for macroeconomic analysis From a conceptual point of view: i) The efficiency of business cycles Stabilization policies may not be necessary or desirable. ii) The importance of technology shocks as a source of economic fluctuations. iii) The limited role of monetary factors

4 Introducing a monetary sector in an conventional RBC (under the assumptions of perfect competition and fully flexible prices and wages) were not perceived by central banks and other policy institutions, as yielding a framework that was relevant for policy analysis. In general, the classical monetary model predicts neutrality of monetary policy with respect to real variables. The classical monetary models usually yield as a normative implication the optimality of the Friedman rule (a policy that requires central banks to keep the short term nominal rate constant at a zero level)

5 The New Keynesian Model: Main Elements and Features The New Keynesian Model shares with the RBC model important similarities (microfoundations): i) an infinitely-lived representative household that seeks to maximize the utility from consumption and leisure, subject to an intertemporal budget constraint, and (ii) a large number of firms with access to an identical technology, subject to exogenous random shifts. Though endogenous capital accumulation, a key element of RBC theory, is absent in canonical versions of the New Keynesian model, it is easy to incorporate and is a common feature of medium-scale versions.6 Also, as in RBC theory, an equilibrium takes the form of a stochastic process for all the economy s endogenous variables consistent with optimal intertemporal decisions by households and firms, given their objectives and constraints and with the clearing of all markets.

6 The New Keynesian modelling approach, however, combines the DSGE structure characteristic of RBC models with assumptions that depart from those found in classical monetary models: i) Monopolistic competition ii) Nominal rigidities iii) Short run non neutrality of monetary policy. It is a natural consequence of the presence of nominal rigidities Implications: i) the economy s response to shocks is generally inefficient. ii) the non-neutrality of monetary policy resulting from the presence of nominal rigidities makes room for potentially welfare-enhancing interventions by the monetary authority in order to minimize the existing distortions. iii) Furthermore, those models are arguably suited for the analysis and comparison of alternative monetary regimes without being subject to the Lucas critique

7 Is the evidence consistent with that prediction of models with nominal rigidities? And if so, are the effects of monetary policy interventions sufficiently important quantitatively to be relevant? Unfortunately, identifying the effects of changes in monetary policy is not an easy task. The reason for this is well understood: An important part of the movements in whatever variable is taken as the instrument of monetary policy (e.g., the short term nominal rate) are likely to be endogenous, i.e., the result of a deliberate response of the monetary authority to developments in the economy. Thus, simple correlations of interest rates (or the money supply) on output or other real variables cannot be used as evidence of non-neutralities. The direction of causality could well go, fully or in part, from movements in the real variable (resulting from nonmonetary forces) to the monetary variable. The main challenge facing that literature lies in identifying changes in policy that could be interpreted as autonomous (Structural (or identified) Vector Autoregressions).

8

9 In response to a tightening of policy, GDP declines with a characteristic hump-shaped pattern. That estimated response of GDP can be viewed as evidence of sizable and persistent real effects of monetary policy shocks. The (log) GDP deflator displays a flat response for over a year, after which it declines. That estimated sluggish response of prices to the policy tightening is generally interpreted as evidence of substantial price rigidities. Finally, note that (log) M2 displays a persistent decline in the face of the rise in the federal funds rate, suggesting that the Fed needs to reduce the amount of money in circulation in order to bring about the increase in the nominal rate. The observed negative comovement between money supply and nominal interest rates is known as liquidity effect.

10 A Classical Monetary Model (From Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle, by Jordi Galí, 2008, Princeton University Press, chapter 2) A version of the slides by Jordi Galí in

11 Assumptions Perfect competition in goods and labor markets Flexible prices and wages No capital accumulation No scal sector Closed economy Outline The problem of households and rms Equilibrium: monetary policy neutrality Monetary policy and the determination of nominal variables

12 Households Representative household solves max E 0 X t=0 t U (C t ; N t ) () subject to P t C t + Q t B t B t + W t N t + D t (2) for t = 0; ; 2; :::and the solvency constraint where t;t T Optimality conditions lim E t f t;t (B T =P T )g 0 (3) T! t U c;t =U c;t is the stochastic discount factor. U n;t = W t (4) U c;t P t Q t = E t Uc;t+ U c;t P t P t+ (5)

13 Speci cation of utility: t U(C t ; N t ) = C N +' t + ' implied optimality conditions: W t = Ct N ' t (6) P ( t Ct+ ) P t Q t = E t (7) C t P t+

14 Log-linear versions c t = E t fc t+ g where i t log Q t and log (interpretation) Perfect foresight steady state (with zero growth): hence implying a real rate w t p t = c t + 'n t (8) (i t E t f t+ g ) (9) i = + r i = Ad-hoc money demand m t p t = c t i t

15 Firms Representative rm with technology Y t = A t Nt (0) Pro t maximization: max P t Y t W t N t subject to (0), taking the price and wage as given (perfect competition) Optimality condition: W t P t = ( )A t N t In log-linear terms w t p t = a t n t + log( ) ()

16 Equilibrium Goods market clearing y t = c t (2) Labor market clearing c t + 'n t = a t n t + log( ) Asset market clearing: y t = E t fy t+ g B t = 0 (i t E t f t+ g ) Aggregate output: y t = a t + ( )n t

17 Implied equilibrium values for real variables: n t = na a t + # n y t = ya a t + # y r t i t E t f t+ g = + E t fy t+ g = + ya E t fa t+ g! t w t p t = a t n t + log( ) =!a a t + log( ) log( ) where na ( )+'+ ; # n ( )+'+ ; ya # y ( )# n ;!a +' +'+( ) +' ( )+'+ ; =) neutrality: real variables determined independently of monetary policy =) optimal policy: undetermined. =) speci cation of monetary policy needed to determine nominal variables

18 Monetary Policy and Price Level Determination Example I: An Exogenous Path for the Nominal Interest Rate where Particular case: i t = i for all t. Implied steady state in ation: = i Using de nition of real rate: i t = i + v t v t = v v t + " v t E t f t+ g = i t r t = + v t br t Equilibrium in ation: t = + v t br t + t with E t f t+ g = 0 for all t. Implied path for the money supply: m t = p t + y t i t

19 Example II: A Simple Interest Rate Rule i t = + + ( t where 0. Combined with de nition of real rate: If >, If <, where E t f t+ g = 0 for all t b t = b t = E t fb t+ g + br t X k=0 ) + v t v t (k+) E t fbr t+k v t+k g = ( a) ya a a t b t = b t br t + v t + t =) price level indeterminacy =) illustration of the "Taylor principle" requirement v v t

20 Example III: An Exogenous Path for the Money Supply fm t g Combining money demand and the de nition of the real rate: p t = E t fp t+ g + m t + u t + + where u t ( + ) (r t where u t P k k=0 + Et fu t+k g y t ). Solving forward: p t = X k E t fm t+kg + u t + + k=0 ) price level determinacy

21 In terms of money growth rates: Nominal interest rate: p t = m t + X k E t fm t+kg + u t + k= i t = (y t (m t p t )) X k = E t fm t+kg + z t + k= where z t (u t + y t ) is independent of monetary policy.

22 Example m t = m m t + " m t Assume no real shocks (r t = y t = 0). Price response: p t = m t + m + ( m ) m t =) large price response Nominal interest rate response: i t = m + ( m ) m t =) no liquidity e ect

23 A Model with Money in the Utility Function Preferences Budget constraint E 0 X t=0 t U C t ; M t ; N t P t P t C t + Q t B t + M t B t + M t + W t N t + D t with solvency constraint: lim t f t;t (A T =P T )g 0 T! where A t B t + M t. Equivalently: P t C t + Q t A t + ( Q t )M t A t + W t N t + D t Interpretation: ( Q t ) = expf i t g ' i t =) opportunity cost of holding money

24 Optimality Conditions U n;t U c;t = W t P t Q t = E t Uc;t+ U c;t P t P t+ U m;t U c;t = expf i t g Two cases: utility separable in real balances =) neutrality utility non-separable in real balances =) non-neutrality

25 Utility speci cation: where U C t ; M t ; N t P t = Z(C t; M t =P t ) Z(C t ; M t =P t ) ( #)C t + # C # t Mt P t Mt P t # for =! v N +' t + ' for 6= Note that U c;t = ( #)Z U m;t = #Z t U n;t = t C t (M t =P t ) N ' t

26 Implied optimality conditions: W t =P t = N ' t Zt Ct ( #) Q t = E t (Ct+ =C t ) (Z t+ =Z t ) (P t =P t+ ) M t =P t = C t ( expf i t g) (#=( #)) Log-linearized money demand equation: where =[(expfig )] m t p t = c t i t Log-linearized labor supply equation w t where $ k m( ) +k m ( ) and k m M=P C p t = c t + 'n t + $i t Discussion

27 Equilibrium Labor market clearing: c t + 'n t + $i t = a t n t + log( ) which combined with aggregate production function: where yi $( ) ( )+'+ and ya y t = ya a t + yi i t +' ( )+'+ Assessment of size of non-neutralities Calibration: = ' = ; = =3 ; = =i "large" k m ) $ ' + k m ( ) > 0 ; yi ' k m 3 < 0 Monetary base inverse velocity: k m ' 0:3 ) yi ' 0: M2 inverse velocity: k m ' 3 ) yi ' ) small output e ects of monetary policy ) counterfactual comovements in response to monetary shocks (" i; # y," ; " m)

28 Optimal Monetary Policy in a Classical Economy with Money in the Utility Function Social Planner s problem subject to Optimality conditions: max U C t ; M t ; N t P t C t = A t N U n;t U c;t = ( Optimal policy (Friedman rule): i t = 0 for all t. Intuition Implied average in ation: = < 0 t )A t N t (3) U m;t = 0 (4)

29 Implementation i t = (r t + t ) for some >. Combined with the de nition of the real rate: E t fi t+ g = i t whose only stationary solution is i t = 0 for all t. Implied equilibrium in ation: t = r t

30 The Basic New Keynesian Model (From Monetary Policy, Inflation, and the Business Cycle, by Jordi Galí, 2008, Princeton University Press, chapter 3) A version of the slides by Jordi Galí in

31 Motivation and Outline Evidence on Money, Output, and Prices: Short Run E ects of Monetary Policy Shocks (i) persistent e ects on real variables (ii) slow adjustment of aggregate price level (iii) liquidity e ect Micro Evidence on Price-setting Behavior: signi cant price and wage rigidities A Baseline Model with Nominal Rigidities monopolistic competition sticky prices (staggered price setting) competitive labor markets, closed economy, no capital accumulation

32 Households Representative household solves where subject to Z max E 0 C t X t=0 Z C t (i) 0 t U (C t ; N t ) di 0 P t (i)c t (i)di + Q t B t B t for t = 0; ; 2; ::: plus solvency constraint lim T! E t B T t;t P T + W t N t + D t 0

33 Optimality conditions. Optimal allocation of expenditures C t (i) = implying Z Pt (i) C t P t where 2. Other optimality conditions 0 P t P t (i)c t (i)di = P t C t Z P t (i) 0 U n;t U c;t = W t P t Q t = E t Uc;t+ U c;t di P t P t+

34 Speci cation of utility: where U(C t ; N t ; X t ) = 8 < : C t N +' t +' N log C +' t t +' x t = x x t + " x t X t for 6= X t for = Optimality conditions: Ad-hoc money demand: c t = E t fc t+ g w t p t = c t + 'n t (i t E t f t+ g ) + ( x)x t m t p t = y t i t

35 Firms Continuum of rms, indexed by i 2 [0; ] Each rm produces a di erentiated good Identical technology where Y t (i) = A t N t (i) a t = a a t + " a t Probability of resetting price in any given period: (Calvo (983)). 2 [0; ] : index of price stickiness Implied average price duration, independent across rms

36 Aggregate Price Dynamics Dividing by P t : P t = (P t ) + ( )(Pt ) t = + ( ) P t P t Log-linearization around zero in ation steady state t = ( )(p t p t ) () or, equivalently p t = p t + ( )p t

37 Optimal Price Setting subject to: max P t X k=0 k E t t;t+k (=P t+k ) P t Y t+kjt Y t+kjt = C t+k (Y t+kjt ) P t C t+k (2) P t+k for k = 0; ; 2; :::where t;t+k k U c;t+k =U c;t Optimality condition: X k=0 where t+kjt C 0 t+k (Y t+kjt) and M. Flexible price case ( = 0): k E t t;t+k Y t+kjt (=P t+k ) P t M t+kjt = 0 (3) P t = M tjt

38 Alternative representation: X P k E t t;t+k Y t t+kjt P t+k k=0 where M t P t = t and t Zero in ation steady state R 0 t(i) di M M t+k t+kjt t+k = 0 (4) t;t+k = k ; P t =P t k = P t =P t k = ; Y t+kjt = Y ; t+kjt = t ; P t = M t Linearized optimal price setting condition: p t = + ( where t+kjt log t+kjt and log M ) X () k E t f t+kjt g k=0

39 Particular Case: = 0 (constant returns) Recursive form: =) t+kjt = t+k p t = E t fp t+g + ( )p t ( )b t Combined with price dynamics equation: where t = E t f t+ g b t ( )( )

40 General case: 2 [0; ) mpn t+kjt t+kjt = w t+k = w t+k (a t+k n t+kjt + log( )) t+k = w t+k (a t+k n t+k + log( )) t+kjt = t+k + (n t+kjt n t+k ) = t+k + (y t+kjt y t+k ) = t+k (p t p t+k ) Optimal price setting equation: X p t = ( ) () k E t fp t+k b t+k g where + 2 (0; ]. k=0

41 Recursive form: p t = E t fp t+g + ( )p t ( )b t Combined with price dynamics equation: where t = E t f t+ g ( )( ) b t

42 Equilibrium Goods markets clearing for all i 2 [0; ] and all t. R Letting Y t 0 Y t(i) di Combined with Euler equation: y t = E t fy t+ g : Y t (i) = C t (i) Y t = C t (i t E t f t+ g ) + ( x)x t

43 Labor market clearing: N t = = = Up to a rst order approximation: Z 0 Z 0 Yt A t N t (i)di Yt (i) A t Z di 0 Pt (i) P t n t = (y t a t ) di

44 Average price markup and output Under exible prices: Thus, t = p t t = (w t p t ) + (a t n t + log( )) = (y t + 'n t ) + (a t n t + log( )) = = New Keynesian Phillips Curve + ' + y t + + ' + yt n + b t = + ' a t + log( ) + ' a t + log( ) + ' + (y t yt n ) where + '+. t = E t f t+ g + ey t

45 The Non-Policy Block of the Basic New Keynesian Model New Keynesian Phillips Curve t = E t f t+ g + ey t Dynamic IS equation ey t = E t fey t+ g (i t E t f t+ g rt n ) where rt n is the natural rate of interest, given by rt n = ( a ) ya a t + ( x )x t Missing block: description of monetary policy (determination of i t ).

46 Equilibrium under a Simple Interest Rate Rule where by t y t y and i t = + t + y by t + v t v t = v v t + " v t Equivalently: where by n t y n t y. i t = + t + y ey t + y by n t + v t

47 Equilibrium dynamics: where eyt t = A T Et fey t+ g E t f t+ g + B T u t and with + y +. u t br n t y by n t v t = ya ( y + ( a ))a t + ( x )x t v t A T + ( + y ) Uniqueness condition (Bullard and Mitra): ( ) + ( ) y > 0 ; B T Exercise: analytical solution (method of undetermined coe cients).

48 Equilibrium uniqueness under the simple interest rate rule

49 Equilibrium under an Exogenous Money Growth Process m t = m m t + " m t Money demand l t m t p t = ey t i t + yt n Substituting into dynamic IS equation Identity: ( + ) ey t = E t fey t+ g + b l t + E t f t+ g + br n t by n t b lt = b l t + t m t

50 Equilibrium dynamics: where A M;0 2 A M;0 2 4 ey t t b lt = A M; 4 5 ; A M; E t fey t+ g E t f t+ g b lt B M 3 4 brn t by n t m t 5 ; B M 3 5 (5) Uniqueness condition: A M A M;0 A M; has two eigenvalues inside and one outside the unit circle. 3 5

51 Calibration Households: = ' = ; = 0:99 ; = 6 ; = 4 ; v = 0:5 Firms: = =3 ; = 3=4 ; a = 0:9 Policy rules: = :5, y = 0:25 ; v = m = 0:5 Dynamic Responses to Exogenous Shocks Monetary policy, discount rate, technology Interest rate rule vs. money growth rule

52 Dynamic responses to a monetary policy shock: Interest rate rule

53 Dynamic responses to a discount rate shock: Interest rate rule

54 Dynamic responses to a technology shock: Interest rate rule

55 Dynamic responses to a monetary policy shock: Money growth rule

56 Dynamic responses to a discount rate shock: Money growth rule

57 Dynamic responses to a technology shock: Money growth rule