UK Foodservice: The Future of Foodservice in the United Kingdom to FS0007MR June 2015

Transcription

1 UK Foodservice: The Future of Foodservice in the United Kingdom to 2019 FS0007MR June 2015

2 Executive Summary Macro Economic Analysis and Trends Macroeconomic Analysis Consumer Trends Operator Trends Technology Trends Foodservice Market Attractiveness Market Size and Forecasts Market Share split by Profit Sector and Cost Sector Profit Sector Analysis Profit Sector Analysis by Channels & Sub-channels- Sales Analysis, Outlet Analysis and Transaction Analysis Accommodation - Bed & Breakfast, Guest House, Holiday Park, Hostel, Hotel & Motel Leisure Entertainment, Venue, Visitor Attraction Pub, Club & Bar Pub & Bar, Private Member & Social Club, Nightclub Restaurants - Full Service Restaurant, Quick Service Restaurant & Fast Food, Coffee & Tea Shop, Ice Cream Vendor Retail Baker, Convenience Store, Delicatessen, Department Store, Garden Centre, Other Retail, Service Station Forecourt, Supermarket & Hypermarket Travel Air, Rail Workplace - Government Department & Local Authority, Industrial, Retail, Financial & Office Based Cost Sector Analysis Cost Sector Analysis by Channels & Sub-channels-Sales Analysis, Outlet Analysis and Transaction Analysis Education - Further Education, Secondary School, Tertiary, Training Centre Healthcare Hospital, Medical Centre, Residential Care Military & Civil Defence - Military Overall, Police & Emergency Service Welfare & Service - Other Welfare & Service, Prison, Welfare Meal Competitive Landscape Company Overview, Product Portfolio, Number of Outlets and Revenues Regulatory Scenario Appendix 6/23/ /06/2015 6/23/2015 2

3 List of Figures Figure 1: GDP per Capita, Figure 2: Consumer Price Index, Figure 3: Unemployment Rate, Figure 4: Age Profile, 2014 Figure 5: UK Foodservice: Overall Sales (GBP Million) & Annual Growth (%), Figure 6: UK Foodservice: Sales by Sector (%), 2014 vs Figure 7: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, vs Figure 8: Profit Sector: Channel share (%), 2014 vs Figure 9: Profit Sector: Average Transaction Price (GBP), Figure 10: Profit Sector: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, vs Figure 11: Accommodation- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), Figure 12: Leisure- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), Figure 13: Pub, Club & Bar- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), Figure 14: Restaurants - Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), Figure 15: Retail - Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), Figure 16: Travel - Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), Figure 17: Workplace - Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), Figure 18: Profit Sector: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, Sales per Outlet & Number of Outlets, vs Figure 19: Accommodation - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), Figure 20: Leisure - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), Figure 21: Pub, Club, and Bar - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), Figure 22: Restaurants Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), Figure 23: Retail Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), Figure 24: Workplace - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), Figure 25: Profit Sector: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, Transactions per Outlet & Number of Transactions, vs /23/ /06/2015 6/23/2015 3

4 List of Figures Figure 26: Accommodation - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, Figure 27: Leisure - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, Figure 28: Pub, Club, and Bar - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, Figure 29: Restaurants - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, Figure 30: Retail - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, Figure 31: Workplace - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, Figure 32: Cost Sector: Channel share (%), 2014 vs Figure 33: Cost Sector: Average Transaction Price (GBP), Figure 34: Cost Sector: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, vs Figure 35: Education- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), Figure 36: Healthcare- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), Figure 37: Military & Civil Defense - Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), Figure 38: Welfare & Services - Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%), Figure 39: Cost Sector: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, Sales per Outlet & Number of Outlets, vs Figure 40: Education - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), Figure 41: Healthcare - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), Figure 42: Military & Civil Defense - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), Figure 43: Welfare & Services Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP), Figure 44: Cost Sector: Comparative Growth Analysis by Channels, Transactions per Outlet & Number of Transactions, vs Figure 45: Education- Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, Figure 46: Healthcare - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, Figure 47: Welfare & Services - Transactions and Transactions per Outlet by Channel, /23/ /06/2015 6/23/2015 4

5 List of Tables Table 1: Leading Foodservice players in UK, 2014 Table 2: Profit Sector Outlets, Table 3: Cost Sector Outlets, Table 4: Profit Sector Transactions (Million), Table 5: Cost Sector Transactions (Million), Table 6: Profit Sector Sales (GBP Million), Table 7: Cost Sector Sales (GBP Million), Table 8: Key Foodservice Definitions Table 9: Profit Sector Definitions Table 10: Cost Sector Definitions 6/23/ /06/2015 6/23/2015 5

6 Executive Summary Key trends in the UK Foodservice industry Due to higher obesity rates in the UK, consumers are changing eating preferences from processed foods to local, organic, and fresh foods.. Overall Foodservice sector Current market size (2014): GBPXX.X billion; Market size forecasts (2019): GBPXX.X billion; CAGR growth: XX.X% Per capita sales: GBPXX.X Sluggish economic recovery due to low productivity and high debt, affected the UK Foodservice market during Profit Sector As a % of Foodservice in 2014: XX.X%; CAGR growth: XX.X%; Largest channel in the profit sector: Restaurants Cost Sector As a % of Foodservice in 2014: XX.X%; CAGR growth: XX.X%; Largest channel in the cost sector: Education Within the Cost Sector, the Education channel had the highest share of sales in 2014, at XX.X%. 6/23/ /06/2015 6/23/2015 6

7 Macro-economic analysis: GDP per capita will benefit from rising consumer spending, supported by low inflation and rising wages Consumer Price Index GDP Per Capita (GBP) GDP Per Capita 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% -10% -15% Annual Growth (%) The UK s GDP per capita (nominal) grew significantly, by XX.X% in However, it fell by XX.X% in 2012 because of maintenance delays in North Sea oil fields % Consumer Price Index The consumer price index (CPI) was XX.X in 2014, up XX.X% from the previous year Source: Timetric 6/23/ /06/2015 6/23/2015 7

8 Consumer Trends: Higher obesity rates in the UK driving the trend of healthy eating A shift towards healthy eating- UAE consumers are shifting their eating preferences from processed foods to local, organic, and fresh foods. According to a survey conducted by Canadean in December 2014, a third of UK consumers want to eat and drink more healthily in Changing breakfast trends- Two major new trends related to breakfast are emerging among the UK consumers: Growing trend of out-of-home breakfast- With increasingly hectic lifestyles, more consumers are eating breakfast away from home. Brinner, eating breakfast foods at dinner time- A trend that first emerged in the US, the brinner trend is fast growing in the UK. Top 5 out-of -home breakfast foods in the UK Bacon Sandwich Toast Eggs Sausage 6/23/ Baked Beans 23/06/2015 6/23/2015 8

9 Foodservice: Improving economy condition due to falling unemployment rate and increasing consumer spending will drive the foodservice market Foodservice Sales in GBP Million The UK Foodservice industry grew at a CAGR of XX.X% during and valued GBPXX.X million (US$XX.X million) in Encouraged by falling unemployment rates and rising real wages, the UK Foodservice industry is forecast to grow at a CAGR of XX.X% during The Profit sector accounted for the major share, at XX.X% of total Foodservice sales in 2014, and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of XX.X% during UK Foodservice: Overall Sales (GBP Million) & Annual Growth (%), UK Foodservice: Sales by Sector (%), 2014 vs , % 75, % 70,000 65,000 60, % 1.0% 0.5% Annual Growth (%) 2014 Profit Cost 55, % 50, % /23/ /06/2015 6/23/2015 9

10 The Restaurants and Pub, Club & Bar will remain the dominating channels Sales in GBP Million CAGR (%) Sluggish economic recovery due to low productivity and high debt has affected the UK Foodservice market, which grew marginally, at a CAGR of XX.X%, during Comparative growth analysis by channels, vs Restaurants Pub, club and bar 5% Accommodation Leisure Workplace 3% Education Retail Healthcare 1% -2% 1% 3% 5% Military & civil defense Travel -2% Sales in GBP Million CAGR (%) Welfare & services Bubble size = 2014 Sales 6/23/ /06/2015 6/23/

11 Profit sector sales by channels: As the companies cut down on travel budgets, the demand for budget accommodation will witness significant growth Sales in (GBP Million) Sales (in GBP Million) Sales and Sales Growth by Channels, (in GBP) Accommodation- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%) 9,000 6,000 3, % 2% 1% 0% Annual Growth (%) The inbound tourist spend is expected to increase by XX.X% annually in 2015, which will contribute to Accommodation Foodservice sales, forecast to grow at a CAGR of XX.X% during Hotel & Motel Guest House Bed & Breakfast Holiday Park Hostel % Annual Growth Leisure- Sales (GBP) and sales growth (%) 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, % 4% 3% 2% 1% 0% Annual Growth (%) Leisure Foodservice sales are forecast to grow at a CAGR of XX.X% during Entertainment is the largest sub-channel at GBPXX.X million (US$XX.X million) sales in 2014, and is forecast to grow at a CAGR of XX.X% during Entertainment Visitor Attraction Venue % Annual Growth 6/23/ /06/2015 6/23/

12 Cost sector outlets by channels: Education channel will be registering highest sales per outlet during Outlets by Channel CAGR (%) Outlets by Channel CAGR (%) % 5% 3% 1% -2% 1% 3% 5% 7% -2% Sales per Outlet by Channel CAGR (%) Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (in GBP) Education - Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP) Pre-School Primary School Secondary School Further Education Training Centre Children's Activity Centre Tertiary The number of outlets for the Education channel is forecast to grow at a CAGR of XX.X% during , while sales per outlet for the channel is forecast to grow at a CAGR of XX.X% during the same period. Healthcare Outlets and Sales per Outlet by Channel (GBP) 3% 2% 1% Medical Centre Residential Care The number of outlets for the Healthcare channel is forecast to grow at a CAGR of XX.X% during while sales per outlet for the channel are expected to grow at a CAGR of XX.X% during the same period. Hospital 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% Sales per Outlet by Channel CAGR (%) Bubble size = Number of Outlets /23/ /06/2015 6/23/

13 Competitive Landscape Key players Company Name 2014 Number of Outlets Leading Foodservice players in UK 2014 Revenues in GBP million Whitbread XX.X XX.X Overview Whitbread is a hotel, coffee shop and restaurant company headquartered in Dunstable, UK and employs 45,000 people. Product Portfolio Popular brands include Premier Inn, hub by Premier Inn, Costa, Brewers Fayre, Beefeater Grill, Table Table and Taybarns Compass Group XX.X XX.X Compass group is the leading provider of contract catering and support services in the UK and Ireland. It has 10,000 client sites across the UK and Ireland and has 3million customers. It provides catering services to schools, sports and leisure venues, retirement homes and workplace 6/23/ Source: Company Websites & Secondary Research 23/06/2015 6/23/

14 Appendix - Profit Sector Outlets Channel Sub-Channel Bed and Breakfasts (B&B) Guest Houses Accommodation Holiday Parks Hostels Hotels and Motels Entertainment Leisure Venue Visitor Attractions Pubs and Bars Pubs, Clubs and Bars Private Member and Social Clubs Nightclubs

15 Market Data Methodology: Foodservice Market Data is created by the consistent application of robust research across all channels 1. Baselines Developed using Internal Research Resources Socio-economic and demographic databases Historic market databases and reports Company database and Foodservice database 3. Marketing Modeling & Analyst Triangulation Modeling of any gaps in data from previous two research phases Consolidation and verification of inputs for creation of models to benchmark data across sectors and geographies Forecasting Triangulation and Conflict Resolution Review by Senior Project Managers Top-down cross-checks Data Finalization Bottom-up data creation 2a. Industry Research: Extensive Desk Research (Ongoing) Industry and trade research Reports published by international organisations National statistics and other publically available sources Expert Opinion: Collation of opinion taken from journalist interviews of leading industry figures Creating Robust, Consistent & Comparable Results through: 100% Standardized Definitions 100% Standardized Processes Phasing work by channel by country Systematic Senior Management Review 6/23/ /06/2015 6/23/

16 Key Foodservice Definitions Term Foodservice Profit Sector Cost Sector Definition Foodservice is defined as the cost of all food and drink, including on-trade drinks not drunk with food, for immediate consumption on the premises or in designated eating areas shared with other foodservice operators, or in the case of takeaway transactions, freshly prepared food for immediate consumption. Foodservice is restricted to the sale of food and drink in specific foodservice channels defined below and excludes vending machines. A number of foodservice channels have been grouped together to be termed the 'Profit Sector. These include Accommodation, Leisure, Restaurants, Retail, Travel, Workplace, and Pubs, Clubs and Bars. Neither operators nor consumers, or companies in the case of the Workplace channel, typically receive a subsidy for the foodservice transaction, and largely represent non-state foodservice operations. A number of foodservice channels have been grouped together to be termed the 'Cost Sector'. These include Healthcare, Education, Military and Civil Defense, and Welfare and Services. This sector typically represents the state s foodservice operations. Food Transactions The total number of visits by individuals to foodservice locations that involve the consumption of either food, or food and drink. Drink-only transactions are excluded from transaction data, but covered in sales data; if several people visit one location at once and there is only one bill, such as a group dining in a restaurant, the number of transactions is counted as being one for each person in the group. The concept of meals is broadly analogous to transaction data, less a typically very small amount for snack-only transactions. 6/23/ /06/2015 6/23/

17 About Canadean About Canadean Canadean is a full-service business information provider with in-house market research capabilities. We specialize in analysis across the Consumer Markets Value Chain, covering suppliers, producers, distribution and consumers. Canadean s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with an industry background in marketing, market research, consulting and advanced statistical expertise. We offer value-added market research, insight and strategic analysis and our products help companies to make better, more informed, strategic and tactical sales and marketing decisions. Canadean s areas of expertise include online research, qualitative and quantitative research, industry analysis, custom approaches, and actionable insights. In addition Canadean has built a network of consultants and specialist researchers across more than 60 countries, each with in-depth industry experience and expertise enabling us to conduct unique and insightful research via our trusted business communities. Disclaimer All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, Canadean. The facts of this report are believed to be correct at the time of publication but cannot be guaranteed. Please note that the findings, conclusions and recommendations that Canadean delivers will be based on information gathered in good faith from both Primary and secondary sources, whose accuracy we are not always in a position to guarantee. As such, Canadean can accept no liability whatsoever for actions taken based on any information that may subsequently prove to be incorrect. 6/23/ /06/2015 6/23/