The World at 7 billion: a World transformed. Prof Jane Falkingham Director ESRC Centre for Population Change University of Southampton

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1 The World at 7 billion: a World transformed Prof Jane Falkingham Director ESRC Centre for Population Change University of Southampton 1

2 Figure 1: World Population Growth Through History Billions Old Stone Age New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age Modern Age Middle Ages Future Black Death The Plague million 7000 years B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C. A.D. 1 A.D A.D A.D. A.D A.D Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998). 2

3 Figure 2: World Population Growth, in Billions First Billion All of Human History (1800) Second 130 (1930) Third 30 (20 th October 1959) Fourth Fifth 15 (27 th June 1974) 12 (21 st January 1987) Sixth 12 (5 th December 1998) Seventh 13 (31 st October 2011) Number of years to add each billion (date reached) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through seventh billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision,

4 Figure 3: World Population by region, OCEANIA NORTHERN AMERICA LATIN AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN EUROPE ASIA AFRICA

5 An increasingly urbanised world Figure 4: Trends in Urbanization, by Region Urban Population Percent World Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean More Developed Regions Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision,

6 Figure 5: Largest Cities Worldwide Millions London Tokyo New York Mexico City New York Tokyo Sao Paulo Delhi Tokyo Source: United Nations, World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision,

7 A healthier world Figure 6: Trends in Life Expectancy Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean More Developed Regions World Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision,

8 Figure 7: Share of world population by level of life expectancy Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2009). World Mortality Wallchart (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.09.XIII.4). 8

9 With smaller families Figure 8: Trends in Fertility, Average number of children per woman Uganda Kenya Egypt India Brazil Republic of Korea Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision,

10 Figure 9: 10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide Average number of children per woman, China, Hong Kong SAR China, Macao SAR Bosnia and Herzegovina Singapore Slovakia Republic of Korea Japan Poland Malta Romania Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision,

11 11

12 The next billion(s)? 8 billion 15 June billion 18 February billion 18 June

13 Figure 10: Estimated and projected world population according to different variants, (billions) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York 13

14 The Classic Stages of Demographic Transition Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Birth rate Natural increase Death rate Time Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. 14

15 15

16 To Slow Population Growth, Developing Countries Fertility Decline Must Be Rapid. Average Lifetime Births per Woman: Sources: (United States) Ansley Coale and Melvin Zelnik (1963); and National Center for Health Statistics. (Bangladesh) United Nations; Demographic and Health Surveys; and other surveys 16

17 Better human development, lower fertility? Source: Myrskylä M, Kohler HP & Billari FC. (2009) Advancement in development reverses fertility decline. Nature 460,

18 The key challenge is how fast fertility in Africa falls Fig 11: Countries and areas classified by level of net reproduction rate, 2010 High fertility Intermediate fertility Low fertility Note: The boundaries shown on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Source: UN

19 Another challenge is to maximise the benefits of the demographic dividend Figure 12: Population age by major regions (millions) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York 19

20 Is it all so unprecedented.? Leave you with alternative views on population growth 20

21 Graph A 9000BC - AD2000 (11,000 years) large population explosion beginning after the Industrial Revolution emphasises the unique nature of recent population growth sense of crisis? Graph B (250 years) recent dramatic changes have been produced by relatively small (but accelerating) growth rates growth rates have begun to decline in the last 50 years managed population growth is possible? Graph C 1 million BC - AD2000 (over 1 million years) first curve - supportable by hunting and gathering second curve - adoption of animal husbandry third curve - industrial revolution - on a logarithmic scale it is no more rapid or unusual than the earlier growth curves likelihood of an eventual equilibrium between population and resources?? 21

22 The ESRC Centre for Population Change Improving our understanding of the drivers & consequences of population change to better inform policy & planning 22

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