Riding the Population Wave(s) Prof Jane Falkingham Director ESRC Centre for Population Change University of Southampton

Transcription

1 Riding the Population Wave(s) Prof Jane Falkingham Director ESRC Centre for Population Change University of Southampton 1

2 The Really Big Population Wave: World population growth through history Billions Old Stone Age New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age Modern Age Middle Ages Future Black Death The Plague million 7000 years B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C. A.D. 1 A.D A.D A.D. A.D A.D Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998). 2

3 World Population Growth, in Billions First Billion All of Human History (1800) Second 130 (1930) Third 30 (20 th October 1959) Fourth Fifth 15 (27 th June 1974) 12 (21 st January 1987) Sixth 12 (5 th December 1998) Seventh 13 (31 st October 2011) Number of years to add each billion (date reached) Sources: First and second billion: Population Reference Bureau. Third through seventh billion: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision,

4 Where are they? China and India both one billion+ Growth high fertility, mainly African, countries 7 of the top 10 growth rates are in Africa Immigration key factor in developed countries Source: exploredia.com/world-population-2011/ 4

5 A World Transformed: a healthier world Life Expectancy at Birth, in Years Africa Asia Latin America and the Caribbean More Developed Regions World Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision,

6 Share of world population by level of life expectancy Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2009). World Mortality Wallchart (United Nations publication, Sales No. E.09.XIII.4). 6

7 A World Transformed: With smaller families Average number of children per woman Uganda Kenya Egypt India Brazil Republic of Korea 7

8 10 Places With the Lowest Total Fertility Worldwide Average number of children per woman, China, Hong Kong SAR China, Macao SAR Bosnia and Herzegovina Singapore Slovakia Republic of Korea Japan Poland Malta Romania Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision,

9 Driving the population wave: The classic stages of demographic transition Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Birth rate Natural increase Death rate Time Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths. 9

10 10

11 The Age Wave: Median age in different regions of the world Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York 11

12 Capitalising on the Age Wave: Population age by major regions (millions) Source: United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division (2011): World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision. New York 12

13 Differential waves 13

14 cohort size Waves transformed : Baby Boomers in the UK 1,100,000 1,000, , , , , , , Source: ONS UK vital statistics , & 2010 population projections At birth At age 40 14

15 cohort size Waves transformed : Baby Boomers in the UK 1,100,000 1,000, , , , , , , Source: ONS UK vital statistics , & 2010 population projections At birth At age 40 15

16 The Migration Wave 16

17 The Migration Wave 17

18 The Migration Wave 18

19 Riding the age wave: Old-age dependency ratio in the EU, EU15 EU25 EU Source: Eurostat 2005 projections 19

20 Deconstructing the wave Demographic determinism? Demographic dependency ratio 0-19yrs + 65+yrs 20-64yrs 20

21 Demography is only part of the picture: Work Matters Demographic dependency ratio 0-19yrs + 65+yrs 20-64yrs Economic dependency ratio P x - (P x.e x )/ P x.e x Non workers/ workers 21

22 Participation rate % Cohort participation rates: males, UK cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort Age group Source: P. Johnson and A. Zaidi (2004) Work over the life course Discussion Paper No. 18, ESRC SAGE Research Group, London School of Economics, London. 22

23 Participation rate % Cohort participation rates: females, UK cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort cohort Age groups Source: P. Johnson and A. Zaidi (2004) Work over the life course Discussion Paper No. 18, ESRC SAGE Research Group, London School of Economics, London. 23

24 Unemployment Rates by Sex EU Member States, 2011 Source: Eurostat,

25 Demography is only part of the picture: Pension membership matters Demographic dependency ratio 0-19yrs + 65+yrs 20-64yrs Economic dependency ratio P x - (P x.e x )/ P x.e x Non workers/ workers System dependency ratio Beneficiaries / Contributors 25

26 Coverage of Occupational Pensions, OECD August Portugal Luxembourg Finland Spain Italy Austria France Australia Canada Ireland Japan United States United Kingdom Belgium Norway Germany Source: OECD,

27 Deconstructing the wave Policy levers Age is not the only factor that determines whether a person contributes or benefits (Falkingham, 1989) Other factors amenable to policy intervention are also important: Unemployment Female labour force participation Age of entry into work and exit to retirement Membership of pension schemes Level of benefits, contribution rates and earnings profiles 27

28 The challenge is to catch the wave and to ride safely it to shore 28

29 Thank you! 29