The Current State of Cross-border E-commerce in Europe The first preliminary results

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1 The Current State of Cross-border E-commerce in Europe The first preliminary results Dr. Jesse Weltevreden, Sjoukje Goldman MSc, Julia Keuter BA 1

2 22 Source: Blendle

3 Global cross-border B2C e-commerce forecast - To what extent do online retailers engage in cross-border e- 994 commerce? x Billion $ What are the differences between countries and sectors? - How successful are they and which factors contribute to their success? Cross- border Domestic 33 Source: Accenture/AliResearch, 2015

4 Methodology 44

5 55

6 Study area: EU28 + Iceland, Norway & Switzerland Research objects: Companies in b2c e-commerce Online shops selling products Online shops with headquarter in the study area X 66

7 Data collection 1. Web scraping to acquire lists of online shops per country: 67,500 online shops 2. Web visitor data from SimilarWeb to estimate the number of crossborder Web visitors per online shop 3. Content analysis among 10,000 online shops to determine their crossborder e-commerce strategy (double blind coding by 75 student assistants, all native speakers) 4. Online survey among the 10,000 online shops to determine their crossborder e-commerce success (to be started in September 2016) 77

8 What we will NOT present today but also know. Use of payment methods (+/- 600) Use of trust marks (+/- 100) Use of carriers Cross-border e-commerce localization strategies Contact channels Legal information Results per sector And more. 88

9 Cross-border Web visitors 99

10 Number of online shops in Europe according to share of domestic Web visitors* 100% Cumulative number of online shops (in %) 80% 60% 40% 20% 40% has less than 15% cross-border Web visitors 70% has less than 30% cross-border Web visitors 0% 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% * Figures (EU28 + Iceland, Norway & Switzerland) are weighted by the size of national e-commerce markets (based on 2014 figures of E- commerce Europe) (N=67,372 online shops). Share of domestic Web visitors per online shop (in %) 10 Source: Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences, based on SimilarWeb data

11 Average share of cross-border Web visitors per country (in %) Less than 10 percent 10 to 15 percent 15 to 20 percent 20 to 30 percent 30 percent or more Figures (EU28 + Iceland, Norway & Switzerland) are weighted by the size of national e-commerce markets (based on 2014 figures of E-commerce Europe) and individual country figures by the weighted average distribution of Web visitor size classes of online shops in the 31 European countries (N=67,372 online shops). 11 Luxembourg Austria United Kingdom Ireland Cyprus Belgium Switzerland Malta Germany Spain Estonia Portugal Croatia France Latvia Lithuania Iceland Slovakia Netherlands Sweden Denmark Romania Norway Slovenia Italy Czech Republic Poland Bulgaria Hungary Finland Greece European average: 23,6% 6% 13% 21% 40% 0% 25% 50% Source: Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences, based on SimilarWeb data

12 Average share of Web visitors per country of origin for online shops in Croatia* * Figures are weighted by the weighted average distribution of Web visitor size classes of online shops in the 31 European countries Weighted figures (N=370 online shops). 12 Source: Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences, based on SimilarWeb data

13 Top 3 countries with the highest and lowest share of cross-border Web visitors* Luxembourg Austria Highest share other European countries: Ireland Cyprus Austria Belgium Luxembourg Switzerland United Kingdom Switzerland Malta Germany Portugal Lithuania Highest share Rest of the world: United Kingdom Ireland Cyprus Spain Estonia Croatia France Latvia Iceland Slovakia Lowest share other European countries: Sweden Greece Finland Norway Bulgaria Netherlands Denmark Romania Slovenia Italy Czech Republic Poland Bulgaria Hungary Finland Greece Total Lowest share Rest of the world: Slovakia Czech Republic Hungary 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Domestic Other European countries Rest of the world Domestic Other European countries Rest of the world * EU31 figures are weighted by the size of national e-commerce markets (based on 2014 figures of E-commerce Europe) and individual country figures by the weighted average distribution of Web visitor size classes of online shops in the 31 European countries (N=67,372 online shops). 13 Source: Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences, based on SimilarWeb data

14 Relationship between cross-border Web visitors of online shops and cross-border buyers per country 75% Share of cross-border Web visitors per country 50% In countries with a high share of cross-border buyers Luxembourg online shops Cyprus also have relatively Austria many cross-border Web visitors. 25% Spain Estonia Romania Iceland Poland 0% 0% 25% 50% 75% Percentage of cross-border buyers per country Individual country figures are weighted by the weighted average distribution of Web visitor size classes of online shops in the 31 European countries (N=67,372 online shops). 14 Source: Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences, based on data from SimilarWeb and Eurostat

15 Cross-border Strategy 15

16 3 Types of online shops compared in Europe* 1. Online shops with a single website 2. Online shops with country-specific websites 3. Online shops with countryspecific pages (and websites) Examples: Number of online shops (in %): Average monthly Web visitors**: The upcoming slides are all about online shops with a single website 97% 2,3% 0,5% 12, , ,500 Cross-border Web visitors share (in %): 23% 54% 64% * Figures (EU28 + Iceland, Norway & Switzerland) are weighted by the size of national e-commerce markets (based on 2014 figures of E- commerce Europe) (N=67,372 online shops). ** To correct for outliers, a 5% trimmed mean was used to calculate the average monthly Web visitors per type of only shop (figures are rounded on 500 visitors). 16

17 Average share of online shops* with direct international ordering (per country**) European averages: Deliver world wide 46% Purely domestic shipment: 35% Deliver to countries in and outside Europe (but not world wide) International shipment after contact by or phone: 5% Deliver only to countries in Europe Direct international ordering: 60% Less than 15 percent 30 to 50 percent 15 to 30 percent 50 to 70 percent Deliver only to countries outside Europe 70 percent or more * Figures only include online shops with a single website. ** Figures (EU28 + Iceland, Norway & Switzerland) are weighted by the size of national e-commerce markets (based on 2014 figures of Ecommerce Europe) and individual country figures by the weighted average distribution of Web visitor size classes of online shops in the 31 European countries (N=8,570 online shops) % 44% 1% Source: Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences

18 Towards a mature cross-border e-commerce market in Europe Share of cross-border Web visitors High Low Share of cross-border Web visitors Potentials Bulgaria Long way to go Cyprus Malta Poland 18 Going in the right direction France Austria Germany Czech Republic Ambitious, but still relatively unsuccessful Share of online retailers engaging in cross-border e-commerce Netherlands 0% 50% 100% * Figures only include online shops with a single website. ** Figures (EU28 + Iceland, Norway & Switzerland) are weighted by the size of national e-commerce markets (based on 2014 figures of E- commerce Europe) and individual country figures by the weighted average distribution of Web visitor size classes of online shops in the 31 European countries (N=8,570 online shops). Share of online retailers engaging in cross-border e-commerce? High Source: Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences

19 19

20 Success factors for online shops with a single website Offering international delivery and particularly delivery both in and outside Europe has a significant impact on the cross-border Web visitor share Offering language translation has a significant impact on the crossborder Web visitor share Offering a currency switch has a significant impact on the cross-border Web visitor share Having (international) trust marks has no significant impact on the crossborder Web visitors share * Figures only include online shops with a single website. ** Figures (EU28 + Iceland, Norway & Switzerland) are weighted by the size of national e-commerce markets (based on 2014 figures of E- commerce Europe) and individual country figures by the weighted average distribution of Web visitor size classes of online shops in the 31 European countries (N=8,570 online shops). 20 Source: Amsterdam University of Applied Sciences

21 Conclusions 21

22 There is much variation among countries in Europe with regard to crossborder activity and success Some countries are already moving in the right direction, but many still have a long way to go Developing a (highly localized) country-specific strategy is key in becoming successful in cross-border e-commerce Current (domestic) trust marks do not seem to boost cross-border traffic. Pressing need for a strong international trust mark? 22

23 Planning & Contact details General report ready in September Country reports available upon request Dr. Jesse Weltevreden Professor of E-business Sjoukje Goldman MSc PhD Candidate Julia Keuter BA Junior Researcher +31 (0) (0)

24 Thank you for your attention! 24

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