The Economic Outlook:

Transcription

1 The Economic Outlook: The New Normal Glen Hodgson Senior Vice-President and Chief Economist The Conference Board of Canada February 2016 conferenceboard.ca

2 Where Are Oil Prices Headed? World oil prices will recover very slowly Excess supply remains an issue Saudi Arabia focused on regaining market share Iran and Iraq increasing production It may be end-2017 before WTI at US$50 2

3 Annual Change in Global Oil Demand millions of barrels per day China World e Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 3

4 U.S. and Canadian Oil & Liquids Production millions of barrels per day 14.0 US Canada f Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration. 4

5 U.S. Oil Production and Rig Count (000s of barrels per day; number of rigs) 9,650 9,600 9,550 9,500 9,450 9,400 9,350 9,300 9,250 9,200 9,150 9,100 9,050 9,000 8,950 Oil production (left scale) Rigs in operation (right scale) 2,000 1,900 1,800 1,700 1,600 1,500 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1, Sources: EIA, Baker Hughes. 5

6 OPEC Oil Production millions of barrels per day Source: IEA. 6

7 Where Are Oil Prices Headed? WTI Crude Price, US$ per barrel % drop e 16f 17f 18f 19f Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis The Conference Board of Canada. 7

8 Global Outlook Lower oil prices should boost global growth, eventually Significant regional variation U.S.: private sector recovery under way Japan: tepid recovery under Abenomics EU: uneven performance, serious structural issues Emerging markets have slipped China aiming to grow by 7 per cent Indian performance improved but Modi reform still needed Brazil and Russia in recession through

9 Uneven Growth in Global Economy per cent change, real GDP Japan Euro zone North America Latin America Asia Pacific Asia Pacific (excl Japan) Source: Consensus Economics. 9

10 U.S. Outlook Growth of close to 3 per cent expected over Better jobs and income numbers are boosting spending on housing, autos and other durables Fed rates increasing could lead to capital outflows from some emerging markets Strong greenback is restraining U.S. exports, earnings of multinationals Business investment should ratchet up over next two years 10

11 U.S. Labour Market change in U.S. employment, 000s Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis. 11

12 U.S. Existing Home Sales and Prices millions SAAR; $ 000s Sales Average Price Source: National Association of Realtors; The Conference Board of Canada. 12

13 U.S. Housing Starts 000s 1,900 1,700 1,500 1,300 1, f 16f 17f Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis; The Conference Board of Canada. 13

14 U.S. Consumer Confidence 1985 = Source: The Conference Board Inc. 14

15 U.S. Vehicle Sales Surging millions, annualized Source: Moody s Economy.com 15

16 U.S. Real Consumer Spending per cent change f 16f 17f Sources: BEA; The Conference Board of Canada. 16

17 U.S. Real Business Investment per cent change, M&E f 16f 17f Sources: BEA; The Conference Board of Canada. 17

18 U.S. Federal Deficit NIPA basis, billions of current $ ,000-1,200-1,400 Sources: BEA; The Conference Board of Canada. 18

19 U.S. Net Debt as a Share of GDP per cent Source: IMF 19

20 U.S. Real GDP Growth per cent change f 16f 17f Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis The Conference Board of Canada. 20

21 Weak Canadian Performance: the New-Normal Real GDP projected to grow 1.7 per cent in 2016 Resource prices remain depressed Weak loonie coupled with strong U.S. consumer should support some export sectors Business investment remains lacklustre Rock-bottom oil prices taking a toll on energy sector Job gains are soft but aging workforce means labour markets to slowly tighten 21

22 Raw Material Price Index per cent change e 16f 17f Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. 22

23 Short-Term Interest Rates Canadian Bank Rate and U.S. Federal Funds Rate 7 6 Canada United States f 17f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada. 23

24 The Loonie and the Oil Price (WTI $US, $US/$C) Dollar (left) Oil Price (right) Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; U.S. EIA; Statistics Canada. 24

25 Canadian Export Volumes per cent change Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. 25

26 Corporate Profits Hard Hit corporate profits before taxes, billions of current $ e 16f 17f Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. 26

27 Real Business Investment non-residential structures and machinery, per cent change e 16f 17f Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. 27

28 Employment Growth per cent change Roughly 150,000 jobs gained ,000 jobs lost e 16f 17f Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. 28

29 Retirement Rate as a share of labour force, per cent Source: Statistics Canada. 29

30 Growth in Industrial Composite Average Weekly Wage versus CPI per cent change Average Weekly Wages CPI e 16f 17f 0.0 Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. 30

31 Index of Consumer Confidence, Canada Jan 2008 Dec 2015, index 2014 = Source: The Conference Board of Canada. 31

32 Real Consumer Spending per cent change e 16f 17f Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. 32

33 Total Consumer and Mortgage Credit (Debt) as Per Cent of Disposable Income quarterly, 1990Q1 2015Q Source: Statistics Canada. 33

34 Mortgage and Consumer Debt Service share of disposable income 1990Q1 to 2015Q Recession 90:2 91:1 Recession 08:4 09:2 Source: Statistics Canada. 34

35 Housing Starts versus Demographic Requirements, Canada 000s 240 Housing Starts Household Formation Sources: Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation; The Conference Board of Canada. 35

36 Real Government Spending on Goods, Services and Capital, Canada per cent change e 16f 17f Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada; various government budgets. 36

37 Canada s Real GDP Growth per cent change e 16f 17f Sources: Statistics Canada; The Conference Board of Canada. 37

38 2016 Real GDP by Province per cent change, basic prices, $ BC MAN ONT NS QUE PEI NB Sask NL Canada:1.6 % AB Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada 38

39 2017 Real GDP by Province per cent change, basic prices, $ BC MAN SASK ONT NS NB QUE ALB PEI NL Canada: 2.3% Sources: The Conference Board of Canada; Statistics Canada 39

40 Fiscal Balance by Province, millions, current $ 1, ,000-2,000-3,000-4,000-5,000-6,000-7,000-8,000-9,000 NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Sources: The Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada. 40

41 Net Public Debt by Province % of nominal GDP, % 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% NL PE NS NB QC ON MB SK AB BC Sources: The Conference Board of Canada, Statistics Canada. 41

42 Implications Slower Canadian growth potential; 2 per cent is the new normal End of the commodity super-cycle Domestic economy remains soft Big differences among regions shift in economic gravity back toward central Canada Fiscal situation a serious challenge for many provinces 42

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