REFERENCE CODE GDPE0660ICR PUBLICATION DATE JULY 2013

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1 REFERENCE CODE GDPE0660ICR PUBLICATION DATE JULY 2013 AUSTRALIA POWER MARKET OUTLOOK TO

2 Executive Summary Thermal Power is the Dominant Source in the Power Mix The cumulative installed capacity for power in Australia was estimated at XX Gigawatts (GW) in Thermal power was the highest contributor, accounting for a XX% share of cumulative installed capacity, equivalent to XX GW. Between 2000 and 2012, installed thermal capacity increased at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of XX%. Coal is the dominant thermal technology used. Thermal power will continue to be the dominant source of Australian power generation in future. However, due to an increase in regulations regarding carbon emissions and environmental protection, gas-fired power plants are expected to replace coal. Power Market, Australia, Installed Thermal Capacity (GW), Continued Growth in Power Generation Electricity generation in 2012 was estimated at XX Terawatt hours (TWh). Of this, thermal power contributed the highest share, at XX%, followed by hydropower, with XX%, and renewable power with a share of XX%. During the period from 2013 to 2030, generation is expected to increase in order to satisfy the steadily increasing demand for electricity. Power Market, Australia, Annual Power Generation (TWh), Annual power generation (TWh) Thermal installed capacity (GW) Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on: May 24, 2013] Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on: May 24, 2013] 2

3 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents 1 Table of Contents List of Tables List of Figures Introduction GlobalData Report Guidance Australia, Power Market, A Snapshot Macro-Economic Factors Supply Security Generation Infrastructure Transmission Infrastructure Regulatory Scenario Degree of Competition Future Potential Australia, Power Market Analysis Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant, Cumulative Installed Capacity and Annual Generation, Thermal Installed Capacity and Generation, Hydropower Installed Capacity and Generation, Renewable Power Installed Capacity and Generation, Australia, Power Market, Annual Power Consumption, Australia, Power Market, Power Consumption by Sector,

4 Table of Contents 5 Australia, Power Market, Infrastructure Overview Australia, Power Market, Active Power Projects Leading Thermal Power Projects Leading Hydropower Projects Leading Renewable Power Projects Australia, Power Market, Upcoming Power Projects Leading Upcoming Thermal Power Projects Leading Upcoming Hydropower Projects Leading Upcoming Renewable Power Projects Australia, Power Market, Transmission Network Overview Australia, Power Market, Distribution Network Overview Australia, Power Market, Grid Interconnection Australia, Power Market, Smart Grid Australia, Power Market, Regulatory Structure Australia, Power Market, Regulatory Structure Overview Power Market Restructuring in Australia Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme Carbon Capture and Storage Projects Clean Energy Policies Feed In Tariffs New South Wales Solar Bonus Scheme Victoria Premium Feed-in Tariffs and Transitional Feed-In Tariffs Queensland Queensland Solar Bonus Scheme

5 Table of Contents South Australia Solar Feed-in Tariff Scheme Western Australia Residential Net Feed-in Tariff scheme Northern Territory Net Feed-in Tariff Australian Capital Territory Gross Feed-in Tariff Tasmania Solar Feed-in Tariff Australia, Power Market, Competitive Landscape Snapshot of Leading Power Generating Company Market Share of Major Power Companies, Key Company in the Australia Power Market, Macquaire Generation Macquaire Generation, Company Overview Macquaire Generation, Business Description Macquaire Generation, SWOT Analysis Key Company in the Australia Power Market, CS Energy CS Energy, Company Overview CS Energy, Business Description CS Energy, SWOT Analysis Key Company in the Australia Power Market, Stanwell Corporation Stanwell Corporation, Company Overview Stanwell Corporation, Business Description Stanwell Corporation, SWOT Analysis Key Company in the Australia Power Market, Origin Energy Origin Energy, Company Overview Origin Energy, Business Description

6 Table of Contents Origin Energy, SWOT Analysis Key Company in the Australia Power Market, AGL Energy AGL Energy, Company Overview AGL Energy, Business Description AGL Energy, SWOT Analysis Appendix Market Definitions Power Installed Capacity Active Installed Capacity Electricity Generation Electricity Consumption Thermal Power Plant Hydropower Plant Nuclear Power Renewable Energy Resources Abbreviations Bibliography Coverage GlobalData s Methodology Secondary research and analysis Primary Research and Analysis Disclaimer

7 Table of Contents 1.1 List of Tables Table 1: Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), Table 2: Table 3: Table 4: Table 5: Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (GW) and Power Generation (TWh), Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity (GW) and Hydropower Generation (TWh), Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (GW) and Power Generation (TWh), Table 6: Power Market, Australia, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), Table 7: Power Market, Australia, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption, By Sector (%), 2012 (estimated) Table 8: Power Market, Australia, Leading Active Thermal Power Projects, Table 9: Power Market, Australia, Leading Active Hydropower Power Projects, Table 10: Power Market, Australia, Leading Active Renewable Power Projects, Table 11: Power Market, Australia, Leading Upcoming Thermal Power Projects, Table 12: Power Market, Australia, Leading Upcoming Hydropower Power Projects, Table 13: Power Market, Australia, Leading Upcoming Renewable Power Projects, Table 14: Power Market, Australia, Transmission Line Length (Ckm), Table 15: Power Market, Australia, Distribution Line Length (Ckm), Table 16: Power Market, Australia, Installed Capacity Share of Major Power Companies (%), Table 17: Macquaire Generation, SWOT Analysis Table 18: CS Energy, SWOT Analysis Table 19: Stanwell Corporation, SWOT Analysis Table 20: Origin Energy, SWOT Analysis

8 Table of Contents Table 21: AGL Energy, SWOT Analysis Table 22: Abbreviations List of Figures Figure 1: Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Installed Capacity by Type of Power Plant (%), Figure 2: Figure 3: Figure 4: Figure 5: Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Installed Capacity (GW) and Annual Power Generation (TWh), Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (GW) and Power Generation (TWh), Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Hydropower Installed Capacity (GW) and Power Generation (TWh), Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Renewable Installed Capacity (GW) and Power Generation (TWh), Figure 6: Power Market, Australia, Annual Power Consumption (TWh), Figure 7: Power Market, Australia, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption, by Sector (%), 2012 (estimated) Figure 8: Power Market, Australia, Installed Capacity Share of Major Power Companies (%),

9 Introduction 2 Introduction Australia is a developed country with well-established agricultural, manufacturing and services sectors. It is world s smallest continent but the sixth largest country in the world. Australia has a federal parliamentary democratic form of government. Its chief of state is Elizabeth II, who is represented by her governor. It is a member of international organizations such as the United Nations, the G20, the Association of South East Asian Nations, the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation and the Australia Group. The Australian economy is liberalized, and it attracts a large amount of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). It is a significant exporter of natural resources and energy, as the country has an extensive reserve of coal, oil, gold, iron ore and copper. Its trade policy supports open trade, particularly for the agriculture and service sectors. The government is also endeavoring to strengthen its trade relationships with China, Japan and Korea through the Trans Pacific Partnership Agreement on free trade. With a Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at current prices of $XX trillion in 2012, Australia registered a GDP growth rate of XX% in Australia s economy was affected negatively by the global economic recession during However, the $XX billion stimulus package introduced by the government, and continued demand for commodities, especially from China, assisted its recovery. Its economy grew by XX% in 2009, which was the highest rate among the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries. The government is currently focusing on raising Australia s economic productivity to ensure sustainable growth. The services sector is expected to contribute the majority share of GDP in 2012, at XX%, followed by the industrial sector with XX%, and the agricultural sector with XX%. Australia s exports were estimated at $XX billion in Major export items include coal, iron ore, gold, meat, wool, alumina, wheat, machinery, and transport equipment. The major export markets are China, Japan and South Korea, largely comprising machinery, transport equipment, computers and office machines. The country s total imports were estimated at $XX billion in The Standing Council for Energy and Resources (SERC) is responsible for overseeing the electricity sector in Australia. The Australian Energy Market Commission (AEMC) and the Australian Energy Regulator (AER) are the regulatory authorities, which function under the supervision of SERC. 10

10 Introduction 2.1 GlobalData Report Guidance This report opens with an executive summary capturing key growth trends in Australia s power market. Chapter three provides a snapshot of Australia s power sector. Chapter four provides cumulative capacity and power generation information, as well as segmentation according to source of energy from 2000 to 2012, with forecasts to This is followed by the consumption scenario for the market between 2000 and 2012, with forecasts provided up until Chapter five provides information on the power infrastructure in Australia, including details of leading active and upcoming power plants in the country, differentiated according to source of energy, as well as existing and planned developments in transmission and distribution infrastructure and cross-country interconnections. Chapter six provides information on regulatory structure and provides a brief description of the power regulatory structure and prominent policies influencing the future of the power market. Chapter seven describes the competitive landscape of Australia s power market, with complete descriptions and SWOT analyses provided for leading companies. Note: From 2012 onwards, the report provides actual or estimated data, depending upon the availability of information at the time of writing the report. 11

11 Australia, Power Market Analysis Thermal Installed Capacity and Generation, Thermal installed capacity in Australia increased from XX GW in 2000 to XX GW in 2012, at a CAGR of XX%. Of the total thermal installed capacity in 2012, coal contributed the majority share of XX%, followed by gas and oil with respective shares of XX% and XX%. In Australia, thermal is the dominant source of power generation due to the large amount of indigenous fuel reserves available. Australia is estimated to have XX% of the world s coal reserves, and its coal exports account for around XX% of the international trade. As of 2011 Australia also had XX trillion cubic feet (tcf) of proven natural gas reserves, which are expected to increase further as Santos, the country s oil and gas company, announced that it had found additional gas reserves in The government plans to increase the power generation capacity of fossil fuels, most notably from gas, as this is expected to reduce carbon emissions. However, the increased role of thermal resources for power generation has also been a source of concern for the government, since the country is one of the leading global carbon emitters. An increased number of thermal power plants will make it difficult for the country to meet its 2020 renewable targets. During the forecast period from 2013 to 2030, thermal installed capacity is expected to increase from XX GW in 2013 to XX GW in 2030, at a CAGR of XX%. Coal is still expected to contribute the majority share of XX% to the country s thermal mix; however its share is likely to reduce, gradually replaced by gas-fired power plants, which are expected to account for XX% by In Australia, the majority of thermal generation is accounted for by coal and gas-fired power plants. Annual thermal power generation in 2000 amounted to XX TWh, which increased to XX TWh in 2012 at a CAGR of XX%. In 2012, coal-fired plants accounted for XX% of total thermal generation, followed by gas with XX%. The remaining XX% was contributed by oil-fired plants. Annual thermal power generation is expected to increase to XX TWh by

12 Australia, Power Market Analysis Figure 3: Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (GW) and Power Generation (TWh), Thermal installed capacity (GW) Thermal power generation (TWh) Thermal installed capacity (GW) Thermal power generation (TWh) Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on: May 23, 2013] 22

13 Australia, Power Market Analysis Table 3: Power Market, Australia, Cumulative Thermal Installed Capacity (GW) and Power Generation (TWh), Year Thermal installed capacity (GW) Thermal power generation (TWh) Source: GlobalData, Power etrack, Capacity and Generation Database [Accessed on: May 23, 2013] 23

14 Australia, Power Market Analysis Australia, Power Market, Power Consumption by Sector, 2012 The manufacturing and industrial sector accounted for the highest share of total electricity consumption in 2012, with an estimated share of XX%. The residential sector accounted for the next highest share of total electricity consumption, with an estimated share of XX%. The commercial and mining sectors contributed XX% and XX%, respectively, to total power consumption in Figure 7: Power Market, Australia, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption, by Sector (%), 2012 (estimated) Mining Others Manufacturing and industrial Commercial Residential Source: GlobalData; Table 7: Power Market, Australia, Breakdown of Electricity Consumption, By Sector (%), 2012 (estimated) Sectors Percentage (%) Manufacturing and industrial Residential Commercial Mining Agriculture Source: GlobalData 32

15 Appendix 8 Appendix 8.1 Market Definitions The report covers Australia and gives a quantitative and qualitative assessment of its power market, looking at market segments related to installed electricity capacity, generation, consumption, power infrastructure and power regulations Power Power refers to the rate of production, transfer, or energy use, usually related to electricity. Measured in watts and often expressed in kilowatts (kw) or Megawatts (MW), it is also known as real or active power Installed Capacity Installed capacity refers to the generator s nameplate capacity as stated by the manufacturer or the maximum rated output of a generator under given conditions. Installed capacity is given in Megawatts (MW) or Gigawatts (GW) on a nameplate affixed to the generator Active Installed Capacity Active installed capacity refers to the component of electric power that actually performs work, given in Kilowatts (kw), Megawatts (MW) or Gigawatts (GW) Electricity Generation Electricity generation refers to the electric energy that is produced by transforming other forms of energy. It also refers to the amount of electric energy produced, expressed in Terawatt hours (TWh) Electricity Consumption Electricity consumption is calculated as generation, plus imports, minus exports, minus transmission and distribution losses and measured in Terawatt hours (TWh) Thermal Power Plant A thermal power plant is a plant in which turbine generators are driven by burning fossil fuels. 78

16 Appendix Hydropower Plant A hydropower plant is a plant in which turbine generators are driven by falling water Nuclear Power A nuclear power plant is a plant in which electricity is generated by the use of the thermal energy released from the fission of nuclear fuel in a reactor Renewable Energy Resources Renewable energy resources are naturally replenishing energy resources which are limited in the amount of energy that is available per unit of time. Biomass, geothermal, solar and wind are examples of renewable resources. 8.2 Abbreviations Table 22: Abbreviations Australian Energy Market Commission Australian Electricity Market Operator Australian Energy Regulator Australian Renewable Energy Agency Compound Annual Growth Rate Carbon Capture and Storage Circuit kilometres AEMC AEMO AER AREA CAGR CCS Ckm Carbon Dioxide CO 2 Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme CPRS Foreign Direct Investment FDI Feed-in Tariff FIT Gross Domestic Product GDP Green House Gas GHG Gigawatt GW High Voltage Direct Current HVDC Independent Market Operator IMO kilometres km kilovolt kv kilowatt kw kilowatt hours kwh Large Scale Renewable Energy Targets LRET Minimum Reserve Level MRL 79

17 Appendix Megawatt Megawatt hour Ministerial Council of Energy National Electricity Market Reserve Capacity Mechanism Renewable Energy Target Standing Council for Energy and Resources Small Scale Renewable Energy Scheme South West Interconnected System Terawatt hours Wholesale Electricity Market Source: GlobalData MW MWh MCE NEM RCM RET SERC SRES SWIS TWh WEM 8.3 Bibliography AER (2012). National Electricity Market. Australian Energy Regulator. Available from: 0-%20Chapter%201%20National%20electricity%20market%20%28A4%29.pdf ABB (2012). Terranora interconnector (Directlink). ABB. Available from: spx [Accessed on: May 23, 2013] AREA (2013). Emerging Renewable Programs. Australian Renewable Energy Agency. Available from: [Accessed on: May 23, 2013] BREE (2012) Australian Energy Update. Bureau of Resource and Energy Economics. Available from: [Accessed on: May 23, 2013] ESAA (2012). Australia-Renewable Energy Target. The Energy Supply Association of Australia. Available from: [Accessed on: May 23, 2013] 80

18 Appendix Grid Australia (2013). Grid Australia- About the company. Grid Australia. Available from: [Accessed on: May 23, 2013] IMO (2012). Wholesale Electricity Market- Overview. Independent Market Operator. Available from: [Accessed on: May 23, 2013] PC (2011). Australia s Electricity Generation Sector. Productivity Commission. Available from: data/assets/pdf_file/0004/109921/13-carbon-prices-appendixd.pdf TransGrid (2013). TransGrid Network- Development of Queensland to NSW interconnector. TransGrid. Available from: [Accessed on: May 23, 2013] World Bank (2012). The Worldwide Governance Indicators, 2012 Update. The World Bank Group, Available from: [Accessed on: January 3, 2013] World Bank (2013). Doing Business Economy Rankings. The World Bank. Available from: [Accessed on: January 3, 2013] 8.4 Coverage This report gives detailed information on Australia s power market. It examines the country s power market structure and provides historical and forecast numbers for generation, capacity and consumption up to The report provides insights on the market s regulatory structure, import and export trends, competitive landscape and leading active and upcoming power projects. The report also provides snapshot of the country s power sector by analyzing the power sector of the country on six broad parameters supply security, regulatory scenario, infrastructure, macroeconomics, competition and future potential. Each parameter has a weight assigned, and a weighted average score is calculated to obtain the country s ranking in the region. 81

19 Appendix 8.5 GlobalData s Methodology GlobalData s dedicated research and analysis teams consist of experienced professionals with backgrounds in marketing, market research and consulting in the power industry, and advanced statistical expertise. GlobalData adheres to the codes of practice of the Market Research Society ( and the Strategic and Competitive Intelligence Professionals ( The following research methodology is followed for all country outlook reports Secondary research and analysis The capacity, generation and consumption data is collected and validated using a number of secondary resources including but not limited to: Government agencies, ministerial websites, industry associations, the World Bank, statistical databases Company websites, annual reports, financial reports, broker reports and investor presentations Industry trade journals, market reports and other literature GlobalData s proprietary databases like the Capacity and Generation Database, Power Plant Database and Transmission and Distribution Database. In addition to this, the following secondary information is collected and analyzed to project the country s power market scenario through to 2030, analyzing factors such as the following: The country s macro-economic scenario Government regulations, policies and targets Government and private sector investments Contract and deal announcements Utility expansion plans The sector s historic track record 82

20 Appendix Other qualitative insights built through secondary research and analysis of company websites, annual reports, investor presentations, industry and trade journals, and data from industry associations Primary Research and Analysis Secondary research is further complemented through primary interviews with industry participants to verify and fine-tune the market numbers obtained through secondary research and get first-hand information on industry trends. The participants are drawn from a diverse set of backgrounds, including equipment manufacturers, industry associations, government bodies, utilities, distributors, and academia. The participants include, but are not limited to, C-level executives, industry consultants, academic experts, business development and sales managers, purchasing managers, plant managers, government officials, and industry spokespeople. 8.6 Disclaimer All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the publisher, GlobalData. 83

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