Does Earning an Associate Degree Lead to Better Baccalaureate Outcomes for Transfer Students?

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1 CUNY Office of Policy Research Working Paper January 2012 Does Earning an Associate Degree Lead to Better Baccalaureate Outcomes for Transfer Students? David Crook Colin C. Chellman Aleksandra Holod Office of Policy Research The City University of New York CUNY OFFICE OF POLICY RESEARCH 4555 West 57 th St., Suite 1240 New York, NY by CUNY Office of Policy Research. All rights reserved. Do not quote without permission of the authors.

2 Does Earning an Associate Degree Lead to Better Baccalaureate Outcomes for Transfer Students? David Crook, Colin C. Chellman, and Aleksandra Holod City University of New York Existing research does not consistently support the notion that articulation policies increase rates of student transfer. Using data from a cohort of students who transferred within the City University of New York (CUNY) system, we examine associations between associate degree attainment and post-transfer baccalaureate outcomes. We find that earning an AA or AS degree -- holding constant the number of credits earned -- is associated with a 6.9% increase in the probability of attaining a baccalaureate degree, an effect similar in magnitude to the average effect of an additional semester of full-time coursework. Results suggest differences between the AA/AS and the AAS degree in the value both of the degree itself and pre-transfer credits completed. These associations may be due peculiarities in CUNY transfer policies, although further research is needed to determine causality. 1

3 Articulation policies designed to facilitate the transfer process for students who wish to transfer from a 2-year community college to a 4-year university have proliferated in recent years (Smith, 2010). Articulation policies include statewide legislation compelling community colleges and universities to develop a process for the transfer of lower division coursework, and the development of a common core that guarantees the ability to transfer general education coursework. Statewide transfer policies often guarantee students junior status if they complete an associate degree prior to transfer to a public four-year institution within the same state. In addition to placing value on the associate degree credential, many policies aim to increase the portability of credits. Existing research does not consistently support the notion that transfer policies increase community college student transfer rates. However, there have been few studies examining the influence of articulation policies on student performance after transfer. This paper analyzes baccalaureate attainment among transfer students at the City University of New York (CUNY), a public university system that enrolls over 250,000 students per year. We explore the value of earning an associate degree prior to transfer as well as the value of credits earned at the community college, while considering differences in transfer policy for students who transfer with and without an associate degree. We also distinguish between students who originate in programs granting Associate in Arts or Science (AA/AS) degrees versus students from more vocationally oriented Associate in Applied Science (AAS) programs. Literature Review Community College Experiences and Baccalaureate Attainment Research has identified several aspects of students community college experience that are associated with transfer, persistence, and baccalaureate attainment. Pre-transfer GPA is 2

4 associated with persistence after transfer and is consistently one of the strongest predictors of baccalaureate completion (Bailey & Weininger, 2002; Crook & Lavin, 1989; Wang, 2009). The number of credits students earn in community college also appears to be important. For example, one study found that students who earn more than 48 credits are 15 times more likely to transfer, and students who earn an associate degree are 40 times more likely to transfer, as compared students who do not achieve these benchmarks (Roksa & Calcagno, 2010). Earning a greater number of credits prior to transfer is also associated with an increased likelihood of earning a baccalaureate for community college transfer students (Koker & Hendel, 2003). Furthermore, the number of credits that are accepted at transfer is associated with student success rates. Eighty-two percent of students who had all of their credits accepted at transfer graduated within six years, as compared to 42% of students who were unable to transfer all of their credits, according to one descriptive analysis (Doyle, 2006). Given that earning and transferring a greater number of credits is associated with higher rates of baccalaureate attainment, we would expect that earning an associate degree may also be associated with a greater likelihood of bachelor degree completion, particularly if transfer policies reward associate degree completion. However, there is little evidence to support this hypothesis. One study testing a new accountability method for New York State colleges did not find an association between associate attainment and the likelihood of earning a baccalaureate after transfer (Ehrenberg and Smith, 2004). Similarly, a study comparing outcomes of immigrant and native students in the City University of New York system found that receiving an associate degree prior to transfer was not significantly related to completing a baccalaureate (Bailey & Weininger, 2002). A national study conducted by the American Council on Education in the early 1990s found that students were able to transfer the majority of their community college 3

5 credits, despite the fact that only a third of students earned an associate degree before transferring (Palmer, Ludwig, & Stapleton, 1994). Transfer Policies: Background and Evidence of Effects Many states have legislated transfer policies during the last several decades, based on the belief that statewide policies would be more effective at facilitating transfer than articulation agreements negotiated at lower levels within the higher education system (Anderson, Sun, & Alfonso, 2006). Today, 36 states have instituted statewide transfer policies (Smith, 2010), and 28.9% of students at 2-year community colleges transfer to four-year colleges (NCES, 2003). Given the prevalence of transfer policies and the number of students who are subject to them, surprisingly few empirical studies have examined the effects of these policies. The limited research available on transfer policies is often descriptive in nature, although a few studies have investigated the association between transfer policies and transfer rates, and the effect of transfer policies on transfer student degree attainment. Descriptive studies catalogue existing policies and their features (e.g. Smith, 2010; Ignash & Townsend, 2001). For example, Ignash and Townsend (2001) developed a system for classifying the strength of a state s transfer policy based on its components. In order to be classified as a strong transfer policy, Ignash and Townsend (2001) suggest the policy must cover a large proportion of a state s students and all types of vertical and lateral transfer. The policy should cover students earning different types of associate degrees, streamline both general education and major requirements, and encourage common course numbering. Faculty must have been involved in the creation of the policy. Finally, the policy must have been evaluated based on statewide data (Ignash and Townsend, 2001). More recently, the Education Commission of the States (Smith, 2010) found that 37 states collect data on transfer students, 35 4

6 provide students with a written guide to transfer policy, 34 have a common core, 22 provide students with incentives to transfer, and 17 employ common course numbering. Many of these policies aim to increase the portability of credits. For example, common core policies simplify the articulation process by specifying in advance which courses will satisfy graduation requirements after transfer. Other policies guarantee transfer of all coursework for students who complete an associate degree. Several studies have also investigated whether transfer policies increase rates of transfer from 2-year colleges to 4-year colleges, with mixed results (e.g. Anderson et al., 2006; Banks, 1992; Gross & Goldhaber, 2009; Higgins & Katsinas, 1999). Studies conducted using student-level data find that transfer policies have no effects. For example, using data from the Beginning Postsecondary Study, Anderson et al. (2006) find no significant effect of statewide transfer policies on community college students likelihood of transfer, even among students who initially aspired to a baccalaureate degree. Gross and Goldhaber (2009) also find no association between the existence of a statewide transfer policy and students chances of transfer, even after accounting for the strength of the state transfer policies using the Ignash and Townsend (2001) typology. Gross & Goldhaber (2009) also examine specific policy components, such as automatic transfer of associate degrees and common course numbering. None of the policy components significantly predicted students likelihood of transfer, and several had negative coefficients. However, as pointed out by Roksa (2009), studies using institution-level data find that formalized transfer and articulation policies are associated with higher rates of student transfer (e.g. Banks, 1992; Higgins & Katsinas, 1999). Existing research does not consistently support the notion that transfer policies increase community college student transfer rates. However, this line of research seems to be based on the 5

7 assumption that students are aware of and understand transfer policies - an assumption unlikely to be true. A recent survey of students in Florida indicated that nearly 70% of students - students who had earned an associate degree but did not plan to apply to a state university - either were not aware of the state articulation policy or did not understand its provisions (OPPAGA, 2010). Therefore, it may be more fruitful to look for effects of transfer policies on student attainment after transfer. As Roksa and Keith (2008) have suggested, the primary purpose of transfer policies may be to facilitate degree progress for students who choose to transfer, rather than to increase transfer rates. They find that transfer students in states with formalized transfer policies take as much time to complete the bachelor s degree and earn as many total credits (and sometimes more) en route to the degree as students in states with no such policies (Roksa and Keith, 2008). However, further research in this area is needed. Most previous research has examined the effects of transfer policy on transfer rates; a focus on degree progress following transfer is relatively new in the literature. Additionally, greater attention should be given to the effects of specific elements of transfer policies on student outcomes after transfer. These specific elements include the extent to which transfer policies increase the portability of credits as well as the value of an associate degree itself. Nor has previous work examined differences in outcomes by type of associate degree, even though transfer policies often vary for students who transfer from occupationally oriented degree programs. The Current Study We add to the research base with a university system-specific study, conducted using data from CUNY. We focus on the relationships between associate degree attainment and posttransfer baccalaureate outcomes, keeping in mind potential variations in the implementation of system-wide transfer policy and explicit differences in transfer policy depending on the type of 6

8 associate degree program pursued. The system-wide articulation policy at CUNY distinguishes between students who hold associate degrees at the time of transfer and those who do not, which -- as described further below -- allows us to disentangle the value of community college coursework and the value of earning an associate degree en route to a baccalaureate degree. Furthermore, CUNY policy differs for students who transfer from AA/AS programs versus AAS programs. Our large institution-level dataset includes detailed information on students academic trajectories during high school and early college, thereby allowing us to control for a variety of potential confounding factors. Our study provides a preliminary examination, albeit not a causal analysis, of associations between transfer policy and baccalaureate attainment. Our research questions are as follows. Research question 1: Are community college students who earn an associate degree prior to transfer more likely to complete a baccalaureate than transfer students who complete a comparable number of credits but do not earn the associate? We expect that students who earn the associate degree prior to transfer will have a higher probability of graduating within four years of entry to the baccalaureate program than students who do not earn the associate degree, because under a university-wide transfer policy, certain degree completers are deemed to have fulfilled all general education requirements for the baccalaureate. That is, students who complete an AA or AS degree are guaranteed junior status when they transfer to a senior college within the CUNY system. For students who do not receive a degree, CUNY s transfer policies are less robust. Therefore, students who transfer prior to completion of the AA or AS degree must undergo transcript review to determine which liberal arts courses will satisfy discipline-specific general education requirements. 7

9 Research question 2: Does the credential effect differ for students who have earned different types of associate degrees? CUNY grants the AA, the AS, and the AAS degrees. We hypothesize that the credential effect may be greater for the AA and AS degree than for the AAS, because the University s transfer policy is more generous for the former. Under CUNY Board of Trustees policy, recipients of the AA or AS are deemed to have fulfilled all lower-division liberal arts and science distribution requirements for the baccalaureate degree. Recipients of the vocationally oriented AAS, on the other hand, are not credited with completion of general education requirements. Instead, University policy specifies that only a subset of courses transfer - those in the liberal arts and sciences - may transfer, and only if these courses can be applied to discipline-specific general education requirements in the bachelors program. Research question 3: Should students who intend to transfer without an associate degree do so quickly or after earning a critical mass of community college credits? That is, how valuable are credits earned prior to transfer? We expect to find a positive relationship between credits completed in the associate program and the probability of earning the baccalaureate degree for students who transfer without the associate degree, because CUNY policy supports transfer of credits earned in the associate program. However, we also expect to find a diminishing return to credits earned in the community colleges. University policy guarantees transfer of liberal arts courses either for general education or elective credit, but not the transferability of upper division courses and courses in the major. Because students pursuing the associate degree tend to take a higher concentration of major courses later in their career, we expect that students presenting higher credit totals for transfer will receive less benefit from those credits, with regard to baccalaureate completion. In addition, CUNY s four-year colleges are not obligated to accept more than 68 credits in transfer coursework. 8

10 Research question 4: Is the credit effect moderated by the type of associate program a student transfers from? We hypothesize that credits earned in AA and AS programs will be associated with a greater increase in the likelihood of baccalaureate completion than credits earned in the AAS programs. As previously mentioned, the University s transfer policy stipulates the portability of liberal arts and science courses for transfer students who do not complete an associate degree. Because many of the credits earned in AAS programs are specific to the major rather than in liberal arts courses, they are less likely to transfer. Consequently we expect to find a lower baccalaureate pay off for credits earned en route to the AAS than for AA and AS credits. Data and Methods Data Drawing on data from the CUNY institutional research database, we examine a cohort of students who transferred from a CUNY associate program to a CUNY baccalaureate program during the academic year (N=4,549). This longitudinal dataset allows us to track students progress through the baccalaureate program over a 4-year period after transfer and account for performance in the associate program. The dataset also includes information on students demographic characteristics, high school performance, early college performance and enrollment status. Descriptive statistics for the sample are displayed in Table 1. Nearly two-thirds of students in the sample entered their baccalaureate program without an associate degree, a rate similar to the national rate reported by NCES (2003). Those students who completed an associate degree prior to transfer were generally more disadvantaged than students who did not complete a degree prior to transfer: They were less likely to be U.S. citizens, more likely to be low income (as 9

11 indicated by Pell grant receipt), less likely to have a college-educated parent. On the other hand, they were more likely to have earned a GED (as opposed to a high school diploma), and they earned lower scores on New York s standardized high school exit exams in English and mathematics (the Regents Examinations). On average, they also earned more credits prior to transfer (65 vs. 48, p<.001). Measures Our independent variables of interest are a dichotomous variable indicating whether the student earned an associate degree prior to transferring into a baccalaureate program, a standardized measure of the number of credits accumulated in the associate program prior to transfer, and the number of credits squared to capture a potential nonlinear relationship between credits earned and graduation. Our outcome variable is an indicator variable for graduation within four years of matriculation into a baccalaureate program. We control for a wide range of background characteristics, including demographic characteristics, high school background, and early college performance and attendance. Demographic characteristics include gender, race, age, citizenship status, parental education, and residence in New York City. We also include Pell grant receipt as a proxy for income, following a precedent set in previous research (e.g. Murashkin, Lee, Wilner, & Swail, 2004; Engle & O Brien, 2008). High school background variables include whether the student earned a GED as opposed to a high school diploma and Regents English and math scores. We also control for early performance and attendance in the community college, including initial proficiency in reading, writing, and math, i.e. exempt from remediation ; participation in CUNY s higher education opportunity program for disadvantaged students called College Discovery; GPA at transfer; entry into the associate program in the spring term rather than the 10

12 fall term; full-time attendance in the baccalaureate program; and cohort year of entry into the associate program. We standardize all continuous control variables, except for student age, to allow for easier comparison of the relative magnitude of their effects. Analytic Approach To examine our first research question regarding the association between earning the associate degree and the likelihood of completing a baccalaureate degree (the credential effect ), we regress the baccalaureate graduation indicator on the dichotomous variable for receipt of the associate degree before transfer for the full sample, controlling for number of credits earned. To test whether there is a moderating effect by type of associate degree program, we then repeat our analysis for students who initially enrolled in an AA or AS program, and for students who initially enrolled in an AAS program. Note that we restrict the sample to students who have transferred. We do not attempt to predict transfer itself. To test our second set of research questions regarding the value of credits earned, we limit our sample to students who did not complete an associate degree prior to transfer and regress the baccalaureate completion indicator on credits earned at transfer (z-score) and credits squared. We initially test this model for all students who transferred without an associate degree. Then, to see if the value of credits earned prior to transfer varies by degree program, we run our models on subgroups defined by the type of associate degree pursued prior to transfer. To do this, we use probit regression techniques for all analyses and report marginal effects calculated with covariates held constant at their means. All models are estimated using robust standard errors to calculate p-values to account for the non-independence of the observations posed by student clustering within senior colleges. We also include fixed effects to partially account for student selection into particular CUNY four-year colleges. Finally, we replace 11

13 missing values on our independent variables with zeros and include indicator variables to denote missing data. Results Examining the full sample, we do not find evidence for our first hypothesis: Earning the associate degree does not appear to be positively related to baccalaureate degree completion within four years after transfer into a baccalaureate degree program. As illustrated by Table 2, students who earned the associate degree prior to transfer were 3.4% more likely to graduate within four years as compared to transfer students who did not earn the associate degree, but this effect does not achieve statistical significance (table 2, equation 1). Several other variables in our model have much larger estimated associations with the probability of completing the baccalaureate degree than the credential effect. For example, students who attended their four-year college full-time were estimated to be 24% more likely to complete their baccalaureate. A one standard deviation increase in GPA prior to transfer (0.79) was associated with a 14.7% greater likelihood of baccalaureate degree completion. In addition, a one standard deviation increase in credits accumulated before transfer (23 additional credits) was associated with an 11.7% increase in a student s probability of obtaining a baccalaureate degree in four years. Our second research question asked whether the credential effect may differ in magnitude, depending on the type of associate degree pursued. As anticipated, we do find a positive relationship (6.9%) for completion of an AA or AS degree prior to transfer (table 2, equation 2), but not for the AAS degree (table 2, equation 3). No matter what degree is pursued, pre-transfer grades and early full-time attendance in the bachelor s program have a much greater association with bachelor s degree completion than does completion of the associate degree, net of the 12

14 credits earned in pursuit of the degree. As a check on the robustness of our results, we also tested models for a subsample of students with 60 or more credits at the time of transfer. This model also revealed a modest but statistically significant credential effect for AA and AS students, but no significant effect for AAS students. (Full results for this model are not shown here but are available from the authors.) Our third research question pertains to the value of credits for students who transfer before completing the associate degree. We found that a one standard deviation increase in credits accumulated before transfer (23 additional credits) is associated with a 10.7% increased probability of obtaining a baccalaureate degree in four years. This effect translates into a 5.6% boost in the likelihood of bachelor s degree attainment, on average, for earning 12 additional associate-level credits - the equivalent of one semester of full-time coursework. However, the negative coefficient on the quadratic term for credits accumulated indicates that credits earned prior to transfer are not uniformly beneficial (table 3, model 1). Students who transfer with relatively few credits gain a greater per-credit boost to their baccalaureate prospects than do students who have completed many credits in the associate program. For example, the increment from 0 to 12 credits is associated with an 8.5% increase in likelihood of baccalaureate completion, while the increment from 48 to 60 credits is associated with just an additional 4.2% percentage points in the baccalaureate rate. Finally, our fourth hypothesis predicted that credits earned in AA and AS programs would be associated with a greater increase in the likelihood of baccalaureate completion than credits earned in the AAS programs. Results displayed in Table 3 suggest that AA/AS students receive a substantially higher return on their credits than AAS students (as shown in models 2 and 3). A one standard deviation increase in credits accumulated at transfer (23 credits) is associated with a 13

15 12.9% increase in the likelihood of bachelor s degree attainment for AA and AS students, but only an 8.9% increase for AAS students. For an additional semester of full-time coursework, it is associated with a 6.7% boost in the probability of earning a bachelor s degree for AA and AS students, but only a 4.6% boost for AAS students. Additionally we find a diminishing return to credits for AA/AS students, but not for AAS students. Discussion Little is known about the effects of transfer policies on baccalaureate attainment among transfer students. We contribute to the literature with an analysis of associations between associate degree attainment prior to transfer and baccalaureate degree attainment after transfer, keeping in mind differences in transfer policy for students who transfer with and without an associate degree. We also consider differences in transfer policy for AA/AS students versus AAS students. Consistent with our hypothesis, the results of the present analysis suggest the AA and AS degrees are associated with a slightly increased (+6.9%) probability of bachelor s degree completion, but the AAS degree is not. This expected difference in the credential effect may be associated with CUNY s system-wide articulation policy guaranteeing students who earn an AA or AS degree 60 credits toward the baccalaureate degree and satisfaction of general education requirements. The policy confers a value on the course work associated with the AA or AS above what an equivalent number of credits would carry without the degree. The AAS is afforded no such guarantee. Even when limiting our sample to students who accumulated 60 or more credits in their associate program, we find a positive relationship for AA/AS students earning their degree before transfer. 14

16 We find it notable that credits accumulated prior to transfer also have a significant relationship with the probability of baccalaureate attainment for students who were pursuing an AA/AS or an AAS but did not complete their degrees. Among AA/AS students, results suggest that successfully completing 12 additional credits prior to transfer -- the equivalent of one semester of full-time coursework in the community college is associated with an average increase in the probability of baccalaureate attainment similar to that of earning the associate degree. The relationship with credits earned was somewhat smaller for students transferring from AAS programs but was still significant. Because CUNY transfer policy only ensures transfer of liberal arts credits for students without degrees, and AAS programs are comprised of a smaller percentage of liberal arts credits than AA or AS programs, credits earned in pursuit of the AAS degree are less likely to fulfill baccalaureate general education degree requirements. We also conducted an analysis limiting the sample to students who earned at least 60 credits. Results showed no significant credit effect for students pursuing any type of associate degree, suggesting that credits in excess of 60 are of little incremental value to progress toward the baccalaureate degree. This is not surprising given that CUNY policy places a ceiling on the number of credits a student can transfer. Our findings suggest that students who benefit from more generous transfer policies namely students in AA/AS programs who complete an associate degree prior to transfer may be more likely to complete a baccalaureate degree within four years of transfer. In contrast, previous research to examine the relationship between transfer policies on baccalaureate degree attainment of transfer students did not find this association. Roksa and Keith (2008) found that transfer students in states with formalized transfer policies did not complete their baccalaureate degrees more efficiently, i.e. in less time or with fewer credits, than students in states without 15

17 such policies. Our results may vary because we study transfer students within a single system of higher education, rather than studying students across states. As such, our results can be seen as an upper bound on these effects; if there is any credential effect, it is most likely to be found within a single system in which ties between colleges are expected to be tighter, as opposed to colleges across an entire state. In addition, we examine the relationship between associate degree attainment, transfer policy, and baccalaureate success for a slightly different outcome than Roksa and Keith (2008). Rather than looking at time to degree, we examine the likelihood of degree completion. Our analytic approach is driven by the assumption that transfer students may be discouraged from continuing their education if they find that the work they did in community college does not count toward their baccalaureate studies. Many of the previous attempts to assess the influence of transfer policies on transfer behavior or baccalaureate outcomes have been hampered by data that are insufficiently detailed or by sample sizes too small to make these kinds of distinctions (e.g. Anderson et al., 2006; Banks, 1992; Higgins & Katsinas, 1999; Palmer, Ludwig, & Stapleton, 1994; Roksa & Keith, 2008; Roksa, 2009). Our study improves upon past work due to the size of our sample and the depth of data available on each student, including detailed high school and college performance data. By focusing exclusively on transfer students, we are able to examine the value of earning an associate degree prior to transfer from community college to a four-year college and model important distinctions such as differential guarantees associated with the AA/AS and the AAS, and the portability of credits versus the value of the associate degree itself. To be clear, our findings do not cast doubt on the value of earning an associate degree in general. Community college students who complete an associate degree have been found to receive higher labor market returns than students who do not complete this credential (Marcotte, 16

18 2010; Kane & Rouse, 1995). In addition, we do not address whether earning an associate degree has an effect on the likelihood of transfer. Our study focuses on a group of students who have in fact transferred. From a policy perspective, it may make sense to encourage associate degreeseeking students to complete their degree before transferring into a baccalaureate program not only because the AA and AS seem to increase the probability of graduating with a baccalaureate degree but also because of the economic returns of the degree. We must acknowledge several limitations of our approach. First, because we rely on data from a single system of higher education institutions, our results may not generalize elsewhere. Second, this study is correlational in nature, and causation cannot be determined. In particular, receiving a credential before transferring may be capturing unobserved differences between associate students, such as motivation or academic focus, or differences in the amount or quality of guidance services provided or requested by the student. Estimating the causal impact of receiving the associate credential on the probability of baccalaureate degree attainment is complicated by the fact that students are not randomly assigned to four-year colleges. Students select into particular institutions based on their academic preparation and interests, and although we control for observed student academic preparation and college fixed effects, there may be other unobserved factors involved. Community college quality has an impact on a student s probability of graduating with a baccalaureate degree, but it also (partially) determines a student s senior college choice (e.g., Dunlop, 2011). In future analyses, we will explore methods to account for selection to a greater extent, such as propensity score matching. Another option is to apply an instrumental variables strategy such as that employed by Dunlop (2011). This study has not explored a number of additional potential influences on the portability of credits. A pre-baccalaureate change of majors may depress the potential contribution of credits 17

19 to baccalaureate degree progress. Likewise, a change of discipline or program between the associate and baccalaureate degree may also negatively affect the transfer of credits. Still another potential influence is a change of pre-baccalaureate institutions (Roksa, 2009). Because a change of majors or institutions may be associated with earning credits that do not transfer well or at all, it will be important to control for these variables in future work. Finally, some combinations of associate and baccalaureate majors may create relatively efficient transfer pathways, owing to articulation agreements between colleges and departments within the CUNY system. In future work, we intend to track multiple cohorts of transfer students to increase our sample size and enable modeling of these combinations of sending and receiving majors. 18

20 References Anderson, G. M., Sun, J. C., & Alfonso M. (2006). Effectiveness of statewide articulation agreements on the probability of transfer: A preliminary policy analysis. Review of Higher Education, 29, Bailey, T. and Weininger, E.B. (2002). Performance, graduation, and transfer of immigrants and natives in City University of New York community colleges. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 24(4), Banks, D.L. (1992, April). External and institutional factors affecting community college student-transfer activity. Paper presented at the Annual Conference of the Council of Universities and Colleges in Phoenix, AZ. ED Crook, D.B. & Lavin, D.E. (1989, March). The community college effect revisited: The longterm impact of community college entry on BA Attainment. Poster session presented at the annual meeting of the American Educational Research Association, San Francisco, CA. Doyle, W.R. (May/June 2006). Community college transfers and graduation: Whose choices matter most? Change, 38(3), Dunlop, E. (2011). The importance of college choice: A study of community college transfer students in Virginia. Paper presented at the 36 th annual meeting of the Association for Education Finance and Policy, Seattle, WA, March 24. Ehrenberg, R.G. and Smith, C.L. (2004). Analyzing the success of student transitions from 2- to 4-year institutions within a state. Economics of Education Review, 23, Engle, J. & O Brien, C. (2008). Demography is not destiny: Increasing graduation rates of lowincome college students at large public universities. Washington, DC: The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education. Retrieved on March 29, 2011 from files/files-demography_is_not_destiny.pdf. Gross, B., & Goldhaber, D. (2009). Community college transfer and articulation policies. Working paper Seattle, WA: Center on Reinventing Public Education. Higgins, C.S. & Katsinas, S.G. (1999). The relationship between environmental conditions and transfer rates of selected rural community colleges: A pilot study. Community College Review, 27(1), Ignash, J.M. & Townsend, B.K. (2001). Statewide transfer and articulation policies: Current practices and emerging issues. In B.K. Townsend (Ed.), Community colleges: Policy in the future context (pp ). Westport, CT: Greenwood Press. Kane, T.J. & C.E. Rouse (1995). Labor-market returns to two- and four-year college. The American Economic Review, 85(3),

21 Koker, M. and Hendel, D.D. (2003) Predicting graduation rates for three groups of new advanced-standing cohorts. Community College Journal of Research and Practice, 27(2), Marcotte, D.E. (2010). The earnings effect of education at community colleges. Contemporary Economic Policy, 28(1), Murashkin, L., Lee, J., Wilner, A. & Swail, W.S. (2004). Raising the graduation rates of lowincome college students. Washington, DC: The Pell Institute for the Study of Opportunity in Higher Education. Retrieved on March 29, 2011 from Pell_Web.pdf. National Center for Education Statistics. (2003). Community college students: Goals, academic preparation and outcomes (NCES ). Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Education. Office of Program Policy Analysis & Government Accountability (OPPAGA). (2010, January). Most AA graduates pursue baccalaureate degree, but many lack information about articulation policies. Report No Tallahassee, FL: Author. Retrieved on March 29, 2011 from Palmer, J. C., Ludwig, M., & Stapleton, L. (1994). At what point do community college students transfer to Baccalaureate-granting institutions? Washington, DC: American Council on Education. Roksa, J. (2009). Building bridges for student success: Are higher education articulation policies effective? Teachers College Record, 11(10), Roksa, J. and Calcagno, J.C. (2010). Catching up in community colleges: Academic preparation and transfer to four-year institutions. Teachers College Record, 112(1), Roksa, J. and Keith, B. (2008). Credits, time, and attainment: Articulation policies and success after transfer. Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, 30(3), Smith, M. (2010). Transfer and articulation policies. State notes: Transfer and articulation. Denver, CO: Education Commission of the States. Wang, X. (2009). Baccalaureate attainment and college persistence of community college transfer students at four-year institutions. Research in Higher Education, 50,

22 Table 1 Descriptive Statistics Full Sample (N=4,549) By Degree Status at Transfer Without With Degree Degree (n=2,980) (n=1,569) By Associate Degree Type AAS (n=1,668) AA or AS (n=2,881) Female Student (%) ** * Race/Ethnicity Black Student (%) * ** Hispanic Student (%) *** Asian/Pac. Is. Student (%) *** Am. Indian Student (%) Age at Transfer (mean) *** 25.91*** (standard deviation) (5.79) (5.67) (5.89) (6.52) (5.23) Citizenship Status Permanent Resident (%) *** 38.66*** Undocumented (%) Visa Holder (%) ** Refugee/Asylum Seeker (%) Pell Grant Recipient (%) ** Parent Has College Degree (%) ** GED (%) ** NYC Resident (%) *** * Regents English Test (mean) *** ** (standard deviation) (10.38) (10.35) (10.19) (11.06) (10.02) Regents Math Test (mean) * (standard deviation) (17.19) (17.11) (17.31) (17.31) (17.13) Exempt from Remediation (%) ** College Discovery Participant (%) *** GPA at transfer (mean) (standard deviation) (0.79) (0.79) (0.79) (0.81) (0.78) Credits at transfer (mean) *** 57.39*** (standard deviation) (22.71) (25.08) (10.96) (22.48) (22.65) Spring Entrant, Assoc. (%) Full-time Student, Bacc. (%) *** GPA at Transfer (mean) (standard deviation) (0.74) (0.73) (0.75) (0.81) (0.78) Graduated within 4 years *** *** *** p<0.001, ** p<0.01, * p<0.05; Stars placed in column with the higher mean or proportion. 21

23 Table 2 "Credential Effect" on Baccalaureate Completion within 4 Years (1) (2) (3) Variables All AA or AS AAS Credential Effect ** (0.020) (0.026) (0.031) Credits Accumulated at Transfer (z) 0.117*** 0.129*** 0.089*** (0.011) (0.015) (0.018) Credits (squared) *** *** (0.007) (0.009) (0.011) Female Student 0.056*** 0.051* 0.067* (0.017) (0.022) (0.027) Black Student (0.024) (0.030) (0.040) Hispanic Student ** * (0.024) (0.030) (0.040) Asian/Pac. Is. Student * (0.028) (0.037) (0.043) Am. Indian Student 0.418** (0.150) (0.243) Age at Transfer * (0.002) (0.003) (0.003) Permanent Resident (0.023) (0.029) (0.038) Undocumented Immigrant * (0.055) (0.073) (0.081) U.S. Visa Holder (0.046) (0.056) (0.081) Refugee/Asylum Seeker (0.119) (0.141) (0.143) Pell Grant Recipient (0.020) (0.025) (0.032) Parent Has College Degree (0.021) (0.027) (0.034) GED (0.031) (0.040) (0.047) NYC Resident (0.030) (0.037) (0.050) Regents English (z) (0.016) (0.020) (0.027) Regents Math (z) (0.015) (0.019) (0.027) Exempt from Remediation (0.018) (0.023) (0.030) College Discovery Participant (0.034) (0.043) (0.054) GPA at Transfer (z) 0.147*** 0.155*** 0.137*** (0.009) (0.012) (0.015) Spring Entrant (Associate) * 22

24 (0.018) (0.023) (0.030) Full-time Student (Baccalaureate) 0.240*** 0.219*** 0.265*** (0.019) (0.025) (0.029) Observations 4,549 2,879 1,668 Pseudo R *** p<0.001, ** p<0.01, * p<0.05 Robust standard errors in parentheses. Models include indicators for missing independent variable data, a control for year of entry into Associate program, and fixed effects for the 4-year college into which a student transferred (not shown). Omitted reference groups: male, white, U.S. citizen, did not receive a Pell grant, parents highest education is less than a college degree, earned a high school diploma, does not reside in New York City, not exempt from remediation, fall entrant (Associate), part-time Baccalaureate student. 23

25 Table 3 Effect of Credits on Baccalaureate Completion within 4 Years For Students who Transfer before Earning the Associate Degree (1) (2) (3) Variables All Without Assoc. Degree 24 No AA or AS No AAS Credits Accumulated at Transfer (z) 0.107*** 0.124*** 0.080*** (0.012) (0.017) (0.019) Credits (squared) *** *** (0.008) (0.010) (0.012) Female Student 0.078*** 0.076** 0.079* (0.020) (0.026) (0.033) Black Student (0.029) (0.036) (0.048) Hispanic Student ** (0.029) (0.037) (0.047) Asian/Pac. Is. Student (0.034) (0.045) (0.052) Age at Transfer * * (0.003) (0.004) (0.004) Permanent Resident (0.029) (0.036) (0.048) Undocumented Immigrant (0.072) (0.096) (0.097) U.S. Visa Holder (0.060) (0.071) (0.112) Refugee/Asylum Seeker (0.143) (0.185) (0.218) Pell Grant Recipient (0.024) (0.030) (0.039) Parent Has College Degree (0.025) (0.032) (0.041) GED (0.039) (0.049) (0.065) NYC Resident (0.038) (0.046) (0.067) Regents English (z) (0.019) (0.023) (0.033) Regents Math (z) (0.018) (0.022) (0.032) Exempt from Remediation (0.022) (0.028) (0.037) College Discovery Participant (0.044) (0.058) (0.071) GPA at Transfer (z) 0.138*** 0.153*** 0.125*** (0.011) (0.014) (0.019) Spring Entrant (Associate) (0.022) (0.028) (0.036) Full-time Student (Baccalaureate) 0.237*** 0.211*** 0.268***

26 (0.022) (0.030) (0.035) Observations 2,976 1,885 1,091 Pseudo R *** p<0.001, ** p<0.01, * p<0.05 Robust standard errors in parentheses. Models include indicators for missing independent variable data, a control for year of entry into Associate program, and fixed effects for the 4-year college into which a student transferred (not shown). Omitted reference groups: male, white, U.S. citizen, did not receive a Pell grant, parents highest education is less than a college degree, earned a high school diploma, does not reside in New York City, not exempt from remediation, fall entrant (Associate), part-time Baccalaureate student. 25