PROSHARES INTEREST RATE HEDGED BOND ETFS: Fixed income for a rising rate environment.
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1 PROSHARES INTEREST RATE HEDGED BOND ETFS: Fixed income for a rising rate environment. What does the future hold for bonds and interest rates? U.S. interest rates continue to hover near historic lows after a 30+ year rally in bonds, but many experts forecast an end to this trend. What s different about today s predictions for rising rates that makes them seem more serious than in recent years? Experts point to the healing U.S. economy and the Federal Reserve s potential return to more normal policy as new evidence for a sustained rising rate environment on the horizon. Keep in mind, rising rates typically drive bond prices down. ACTUAL FORECAST Target the income you want while tackling rising rates If U.S. interest rates begin to rise, they could do so rapidly. What can investors who need income do to help prepare? Keep reading to learn: 18% 15% U.S. Unemployment Rate 8.9% 5.4% 1 Some of the key risks in bonds, and how much interest rate exposure certain bonds have. 12% 9% 6% Real GDP 1.6% 3.1% 2 How to quantify interest rate risk in a bond portfolio, and the potential financial impact when rates eventually rise. 3% 0% Yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury Bond What you can do to help prepare your portfolio for rising rates, and some pros and cons of different approaches. Source: Bloomberg, 1981 to 2014.
2 THE KEY RISKS DRIVING BOND RETURNS Credit risk and interest rates 1 Investing in bonds carries a variety of risks, but two key risk components generally drive bond returns: credit risk and interest rates. Credit risk, which reflects the quality of a bond issuer, is what most investors focus on. The greater the credit risk, the higher the potential for profit or loss. Interest rates, particularly those on U.S. Treasurys, directly affect the price of all bonds. When interest rates rise, bond prices tend to decline. And the longer a bond s duration, the greater the effect. In the current low rate environment, investors in all types of bonds should be very wary of interest rate risk, even those who have turned to riskier high yield and investment grade corporate bonds to boost income. They may have more exposure to rising rates than they think. Investors in all types of bonds should be very wary of interest rate risk. Main Sources of Risk for Bonds HIGHER High Yield Credit Risk Investment Grade LOWER U.S. Treasurys LOWER Interest Rate Risk Increases with Duration HIGHER For illustrative purposes only.
3 QUANTIFYING INTEREST RATE RISK Duration: Measuring what rising rates mean 2 Duration is a measure of a bond or bond fund s sensitivity to interest rate changes, reflecting the likely change in bond prices given a change in rates. The higher a bond s duration, the more sensitive it will generally be to changes in interest rates. If we presume a $100,000 bond portfolio and duration of four years, there is a real potential for loss that bond investors could face when rates rise. Even bonds or funds with a relatively short duration of four years could lose $4,000 for every 1% (100 basis points) that interest rates increase. Of course, a similar gain could result if rates fell 1% instead. If events trigger a severe rate increase, 2% or more, losses could be magnified to $8,000 or even more for portfolios with longer durations. The longer a bond s duration, the more sensitive it will generally be to changes in interest rates. There are a number of things investors can do to help prepare for rising rates, but one thing no investor can afford is to avoid the necessary preparations. $100,000 bond portfolio with a duration of Change in Yield +2% $8,000 -$10,000 -$12,000 -$14,000 +1% -$4,000 -$5,000 -$6,000 -$7,000 $4,000 $5,000 $6,000 $7,000-1% $8,000 $10,000 $12,000 $14,000-2% Source: McGraw-Hill Financial Communications. Values are approximate; there is no guarantee the actual changes in portfolio values would equal amounts shown here. In addition, larger rate increases will likely result in smaller changes in value than indicated by duration, as duration is accurate only for small changes in yields.
4 PREPARING FOR A SHIFT TO RISING RATES The power of zero duration 3 How can you help reduce duration and interest rate risk in your bond portfolio? One of the most common ways to prepare for rising rates is to move from longer to shorter duration bonds or floating rate instruments. But this could mean reducing credit risk and sacrificing significant income potential. We believe an interest rate hedged strategy that targets zero duration can be a better way to help mitigate the effects of rising rates. What happens when interest rates rise? Portfolios with longer duration are at greater risk of a decline. Shorter duration portfolios reduce risk, but they still have exposure to interest rates. They are likely to decline too. A bond portfolio targeting a duration of zero essentially tries to eliminate the threat of rising rates. One of the most common ways to prepare for rising rates is to move from long to short term (shorter duration) bonds. If U.S. Interest Rates Rise 1%, Approximate Loss for a $100,000 Bond Portfolio $0 Zero Duration 2 Years 6 Years 8 Years Interest rate hedged Short-term Intermediate-term Long-term $2,000 $4,000 $6,000 $8,000 For illustrative purposes only. Source: McGraw-Hill Financial Communications. Values are approximate; there is no guarantee the actual changes in portfolio values would equal amounts shown here. In addition, larger rate increases will likely result in smaller changes in value than indicated by duration, as duration is accurate only for small changes in yields.
5 YOUR BOND PORTFOLIO. PREPARED. ProShares Interest Rate Hedged Bond ETFs IGHG HYHG ProShares Investment Grade Interest Rate Hedged ProShares High Yield Interest Rate Hedged Interest rate hedged fixed income strategies combine portfolios of bonds with built-in hedges against the effects of rising rates. ProShares Investment Grade Interest Rate Hedged (IGHG) and ProShares High Yield Interest Rate Hedged (HYHG) offer two potential advantages: IGHG and HYHG have diversified, long-bond portfolios similar to unhedged. Unlike shorter duration bonds, you generally don t have to sacrifice yield potential with ProShares Interest Rate Hedged Fixed Income ETFs. Learn more about IGHG, HYHG and how to use them to mitigate interest rate risk in your portfolio by visiting ProShares.com. Even less interest rate sensitivity than short term bonds. IGHG and HYHG s built-in hedges use short Treasury futures to target a duration of zero almost no sensitivity to interest rates. Short duration funds, while reducing risk, still have substantial rising rate exposure.
6 About ProShares ProShares offers the nation s largest lineup of alternative ETFs. We help investors to go beyond the limitations of conventional investing and face today s market challenges. ProShares helps investors build better portfolios by providing access to alternative investments delivered with the liquidity, transparency and cost effectiveness of an ETF. Find out more Visit ProShares.com or consult your financial advisor. Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. These ProShares ETFs entail certain risks, which include the use of derivatives (futures contracts), imperfect benchmark correlation, leverage and market price variance, all of which can increase volatility and decrease performance. Bonds will generally decrease in value as interest rates rise. High yield bonds may involve greater levels of credit, liquidity and valuation risk than higher-rated instruments. Narrowly focused investments typically exhibit higher volatility. Please see summary and full prospectuses for a more complete description of risks. There is no guarantee any ProShares ETF will achieve its investment objective. IGHG and HYHG do not attempt to mitigate factors other than rising Treasury interest rates that impact the price and yield of corporate bonds, such as changes to the market's perceived underlying credit risk of the corporate entity. IGHG and HYHG seek to hedge investment grade bonds and high yield bonds, respectively, against the negative impact of rising rates by taking short positions in Treasury futures. These positions lose value as Treasury prices increase. Investors may be better off in a long-only investment grade or high yield investment than investing in IGHG or HYHG when interest rates remain unchanged or fall, as hedging may limit potential gains or increase losses. No hedge is perfect. Because the duration hedge is reset on a monthly basis, interest rate risk can develop intra-month, and there is no guarantee the short positions will completely eliminate interest rate risk. Furthermore, while IGHG and HYHG seek to achieve an effective duration of zero, the hedges cannot fully account for changes in the shape of the Treasury interest rate (yield) curve. IGHG and HYHG may be more volatile than a long-only investment in investment grade or high yield bonds. Performance of IGHG and HYHG could be particularly poor if investment grade or high yield credit deteriorates at the same time that Treasury interest rates fall. There is no guarantee the fund will have positive returns. Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses of ProShares before investing. This and other information can be found in their summary and full prospectuses. Read them carefully before investing. Obtain them from your financial adviser or broker/ dealer representative or visit ProShares.com. ProShares are distributed by SEI Investments Distribution Co., which is not affiliated with the funds advisor PSA
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