4 4 Foreword It s a great pleasure for me to present the first edition of the TEM (Telecom&Media) Ecosystem Report, as it is an interesting reflection of the main players perspective about the market trends and its evolution. Therefore, I would like to start by saying Thank you to those who have accepted to contribute with their opinions and future predictions. The idea to build up a TEM Ecosystem Report focused on the Portuguese Market, has started in June 2013 during a Steering Meeting of the Altran Telecom Industry, in London city inspired by London Bridge view. Back to Portugal, and after some internal discussions about how to do it, we said: Yes definetly, we must do this! The main objective of this Report is to analyse the emerging trends in the TEM market in Portugal. This report was also carried out to understand the future outlook in terms of New Business Models, New Business Strategies and the key coming Investment areas for the TEM market in Portugal. Another ambition of the study was to find out more about the market players strategy: Operators, Equipment Manufacturers, Software Product Companies, Content Producers and Distributors, and ICT Services Companies. For a deeper analysis the Report was divided into 5 market segments: Devices, Network, Services, Applications and Content. Each market segment has been analysed through 7 topics: Main Events, Offering, Players, Business Models, Business Strategies, Key Competitor Factors and Key Investments areas. According to the interviewees many challenges and opportunities have been raised for the next four years. Synthetically, I would like to highlight some topics with significant impact in our Industry till 2017: Most relevant business models for telecom operators will be based on flat rates of voice and data, models based on service packages tailored upon market segment, and pricing models based on service quality and speed. Business models based on service subscription (with embedded advertising) are those that will have the greatest impact on the pay TV and video market in Portugal. The investment in media and entertainment companies to enhance telecom operator s connectivity services with value-added contents will be the most relevant investment. The strategy focus on customer experience will be the most valuable to compete in the market of mobile applications. OTT TV communication (28% of weighted value) will be the most used communication service. For network professionals, Fixed Ultra-fast Broadband will be the main communication service, with a weighted value of 31%.
5 5 Google, followed by Netflix will be the leaders of digital entertainment in Portugal. Freemium Model and Service Subscription will be the 2 most relevant business models for APPs. The ability to adapt the content to different digital platforms and a strong brand positioning will be the most critical Key Competitive Factors in the Portuguese content market. Offering IPTV with pay TV and video on multiple devices is the most valuable business strategy for the market of pay TV and video. Professional video, such as cinema, series and TV programs, is leading the industrial transformation as the main offer for the next for years in Portugal s content segment. The content generated by users in Social Media will be within the top five most used contents in Portugal. Business models based on Pay per consumption of digital content are those that will have the greatest impact of the market of content aggregators in Portugal. Looking for the items above, I may say that Portugal has today one of the most advanced infrastructures in the world, fix and mobile, and what s coming next is: Innovation, Customer Experience, Convergence, New business models and New OTT players. Altran as partner of APDC (Associação Portuguesa para o Desenvolvimento das Comunicações), will distribute this Report in the 24th ADPC Congress. The main conclusions of this Report will be deeper discussed during the event throughout two main sessions with key market players. A final word for you, report reader: as I referred before, this Report started as a project in June 2013, meanwhile many things happened thanks to market dynamic where we are, new brands, new offers, new partnerships, new regulation and also companies merged which was the case of ZON and Optimus resulting in a new company called NOS. For a better data accuracy we have decided to analyse ZON and Optimus as separate companies. We promise for the next edition of this Report to have NOS as a single company. I hope you enjoy the Report and make it useful in your jobs and companies. See you soon, Bruno Casadinho ALTRAN PORTUGAL Head of Telecom & Media
6 6 1. Introduction Informe Altran sobre el ecosistema Telco
7 7 1. Introduction 1.1. Survey s aim ALTRAN shows its huge interest in knowing and generating knowledge about evolution, status and future direction of the telecommunications macro-sector in Portugal with the development and launch of a general survey in order to better understand the Portuguese ecosystem. Therefore, a team from Altran has worked for several months on this study of the macro sector which has resulted in the Situation and evolution of the Portuguese telecommunications macro-sector report. For the report, Altran has based itself on the opinions gathered from interviews with senior managers belonging to companies across the value chain macro-sector and the expertise of our company Ecosystem description Altran sets the following telecommunications macro-sector s ecosystem, where it has identified five major industrial areas (devices, networks, services, applications and contents), each one with its sub-areas and components. Different actors, with more or less involvement in this ecosystem are identified in one or few of the mentioned areas. Areas of the TEM Macrosector Devices Networks Services Applicactions Content TEM Macrosector Ecsystem Key Aspects Mobile Devices Smartphones Tablets Nano-tables Netbooks Mobile / Cell phones Laptops Fixed Devices STBs Home Entertainment Devices PCs Connected TV Fixed Phones OS (Operating system) Mobile Tech Suppliers CPE Radio Access Fixed Tech Suppliers CPE (Customer Premises equipment) Fix Access Mobile / Fixed Suppliers Aggregation networks Transport Core transmission (IP/ SDH/ATM/DWDM) Cross / Transversal Suppliers Signaling and Control SDP (Service Development Platforms) Mobile Communications Mobile voice Internet access: Mobile broadband Fixed Communications Fixed voice Internet: Fixed broadband Mobile Entertainment Mobile Tv Fixed Entertainment Cabel TV Pay TV (+VoD) Service Platforms Payment, Billing & SM, Conditional Access & DRM, Video encoding & delivery, customer management, BSS, content discovery, etc. Cloud: PaaS & IaaS (Mobile) App Stores Pay TV Mobile TV Cable TV Information & utilities Games IM Social Networks Music OTT Video IPTV VoIP News Mobile marketing Advertising Enterp. App Marketplaces CRM, ERP, , Security Business Intelligence Office Apps Cloud Support technology SaaS Billing & payments ecommerce & transactions Access services Professional Content Audio Video Advertising Publishing (News & Books) Games ebooks UGC Music News Social media Video Enablers: Industry associations Standard and Consultative Organization European Commission National Regulatory Authorities Players OEM (Original Equipment Manufacturer): Samsung, Nokia, Sony OS developers (Apple, Microsoft, Google, ) Network Equipment Vendors Network Service Suppliers Network Infrastructure Integrators Full Telecom Syc Providers Mobile Virtual Network Operators (OMVs) Cable Operators IT Equipment & Platform Vendors Cloud Providers & Integrators Application SW Developers / Integrators Social Network Providers & Platforms TV OTT y VoIP ecommerce Cloud Hosting Enterprises New Agencies TV Operators Game Aggr. & Suppliers Book Platforms Multimedia Container Provider Content Creators Game Developers Audiovisual Content Generators/ Producers Macro-Industry Structure
8 8 Macro-Industry Structure Devices include all kinds of fixed and mobile equipment and terminals that enable users online experience. Included in this group are the Operating Systems (OS) developed for each of these devices. Networks section includes all those elements related to the supply of fixed and mobile connectivity that compose the telecommunications networks (core transmission, accesses, CPEs, Service Development and Management Platforms, etc.), which are the key infrastructure of the ecosystem. As per Services Area, it comprises all the services related to fixed and mobile communications, including fixed and mobile voice, fixed and mobile Internet, TV services and service platforms. Included in the Applications Section are all those software and programs that enable users tasks, from mobile apps to business applications and platforms. Moreover, this section also includes all the applications used for financial purposes, such as ecommerce and electronic transactions. Finally, Contents Area covers all the content value chain, from creation to distribution. In order to guarantee a better understanding of this sector, this section is deeper divided into Content generated by professionals and User-Generated
9 Survey s structure To elaborate the Survey for 2017 Ecosystem, the five previously described areas have been intersected to the 7 traversal topics considered key to analyze the macro-sector (Events, Offering, Players, Business Models, Business Strategies, Key Competitive Factors and Investments). This way, the survey is structured according to the following matrix: Topics Areas Devices (T) Networks (R) Services (S) Applications (A) Contents (C) 1. Events 1T 1R 1S 1A 1C 2. Ofering 2T 2R 2S 2A 2C 3. Players 3T 3R 3S 3A* 3C 4. Business Models 4T 4R 4S 4A* 4C 5. Strategies 5T 5R 5S 5A* 5C 6. Key Competitive Factors 6T 6R 6S 6A* 6C 7. Investments 7T 7R 7S 7A 7C (*)Questions divided into App and TV In the following points each of the seven traversal topics is enlisted and described: 1. Recent Events. facts, business achievements and milestones that have taken place in recent months and that may be of relevance for the evolution of the macro sector 2. Offering. set of products, services and solutions with which the ecosystem s players compete in the different markets. 3. Players. elevant actors (vendors, manufacturers, suppliers, integrators, developers, telecom operators, etc.) that operate in each industrial area. 4. Business Models. efinition and description of the key pillars through which the players build, distribute, and capture value. Bearing in mind that business models are built from different components, this analysis will be mainly focused on revenue stream models. 5. Business Strategies. competitive strategies defined and implemented by the different actors of the ecosystem to effectively compete in the markets. 6. Key Competitive Factors Competencies and capabilities those are critical for a business organization to effectively compete and succeed in the current context. 7. Investments Investment strategies likely to be implemented in each area, either by players currently operating in that specific area, or by players that directly or indirectly participate in that given area or in other areas. In some intersections of Areas and topics, the survey focuses on specific sub-areas (i.e. Telecom Services, Mobile Apps, TV/ Video Apps, etc.) with the only aim of highlighting specific issues that might require further and deeper analysis (i.e. business models, business strategies).
11 11 2. Telecom macro-sector Analysis Informe Altran sobre el ecosistema Telco
13 Devices Devices Events (1T) According to the opinion of the interviewees, news related to Microsoft acquisition of Nokia s Mobile Business (September 2013) represent the most relevant event for the evolution of the Portuguese telecommunications, media, and technology macro-industry in the next 4 years. On the other hand, Nokia gives up its main division, focusing on telecommunications networks which will represent its main business unit from now on. Ranked in the second position, with 9% of weighted answers, the professionals of the industry place the development of a new fingerprint scanner integrated in the new iphones. The next three positions have the same weighted value, gathering the launch of the new Samsung s tablet with dual operating system that combines Android and Windows, the decision of the European Union to take part in the dispute between Apple and Samsung over patents infringements and the launch of Firefox OS Open for mobile by Mozilla.
14 14 Microsoft acquisition of Nokia s Mobile Business is considered as the most relevant event related to the segment of Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) and with highest impact on the future of the TEM macro industry, according to the opinion of the interviewees. Microsoft agrees a deal to buy Nokia s Mobile Business for 5,4 billion Euros (3,8 billion Euros for the division plus 1,6 billion Euros for license patents) (September 2013) 12 Apple develops a new technology integrated into its new iphone 5s: fingerprint scanner called the Touch ID (September 2013) 9 Samsung introduces ATIV Q, a dual OS tablet that combines Android 4.2 and windows 8 (June 2013) European Union takes part to the dispute between Apple and Samsung wover design and technical patents infringements, threatening Samsung with billionaire potential fines (September 2013) Mozilla launches Firefox OS Open for mobile, aiming at challenging Apple and Google with the open Web (February 2013) T1 Recent events with the highest impact on the future of the industry for the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample size: 12 interviewees answered to this question Offering (2T) The devices industry is experiencing increased competitiveness: on one side, traditional smartphone and tablet manufacturers have been extending their offering; on the other, new players are vertically integrating in this area of the value chain by progressively shifting their business towards mobile devices. Within this context, Smartphones and Tablets represent, according to the opinion of the interviewed professionals, the most used devices for communication services and applications consumption in the next four years. These two segments accounts for the 55% of the interviewed professionals. The leaders of the industry place in third position of the ranking Phablets touch screen devices with more than 12.5 inches -, with 14% of total weighted answers, followed by Connected and Smart TVs which reach 12% of weighted answers. In the last positions of the weighted ranking the leaders of the industry place PCs, as relevant devices for communication services and applications consumption in the near future.
15 15 Deepening the analysis into the different industrial segments, it has to be highlighted that the interviewees generally showed homogeneous opinions on the topic, regardless of the segment or industrial sector they belong to. Nevertheless, it is worth considering the opinion of Network and Contents professionals, which slightly differs from the rest of the interviewed sample, giving more importance to Connected and Smart TVs (second and first place respectively). Smartphones and Tablets represent, according to the opinion of the interviewed opinion leaders, the two most used devices in the next four years in the Portuguese market. Smartphones 33 Tablets 22 Phablets 14 Connected and SmartTV s 12 PC s 6 T2.1 Most used devices for communication services and applications consumption in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample size: 14 interviewees answered to this question.
16 16 Regarding the Operating Systems segment, the battle for market dominance continues to represent one of the main hot topics of the industry. With this in mind, Android has been selected by the industry experts as the one likely to be the dominant player, in terms of shares, of the Portuguese market in the next four years. Android will suffer tough competition from ios, as the interviewees placed it in second position of the ranking. Other OS that will cover the role of relevant challengers in the future landscape of the Portuguese ecosystem are, in order, Windows Phone and Chrome OS. Android, ios, and Windows Phone are considered the OS with the largest market shares in the next four year in the Portuguese landscape, followed by Blackberry 10 OS and Chrome OS, according to the opinion of the opinion leaders that participated to the questionnaire. Android 40 ios 31 Windows Phone 8 15 Blackberry 10 OS 5 Chrome OS 3 T2.2 OS for smartphones and tablets with largest market share in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample size: 14 interviewees answered to this question.
17 17 Deepening the analysis into the different industrial segments, it has to be highlighted that the interviewees generally showed homogeneous opinions on the topic, regardless of the segment or industrial sector they belong to. Total Devices Android ios Android Windows Phone 8 Windows Phone 8 Blackberry 10 OS T2.2 OS for smartphones and tablets with largest market share in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Comparison among global and devices areas results.
18 Players (3T) According to the opinions gathered in the survey, the interviewed professionals consider Samsung as the OEM that will hold the market leadership in the next four years in the Portuguese sector of devices, concretely smartphones and tablets, followed by Apple in the second position. These two competitors account for 64% of total weighted scores. After these two players, the leaders of the industry consider that LG, Huawei, and Sony will hold a position of relevant challengers in the Portuguese marketplace, as they have been selected respectively in the third, fourth, and fifth position of the top Portuguese ranking. According to the opinion of the industry professionals, Samsung is the OEM that will hold the largest market share in the Portuguese market of devices in the next four years, followed by Apple. Samsung 35 Apple 29 LG 9 Huawei 9 Sony 8 T3.1 OEMs (smartphones and tablets) with largest market share in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample size: 14 interviewees answered to this question.
19 19 Shifting the analysis to the segment of digital entertainment devices and consoles, the last 12 months have been extremely relevant, as the market rebounded after 4 years of decline, and officially entered in the Next Generation of Game Consoles era. This turnaround has been mainly driven by the renewal of the product offerings of the majority of the players. In this context, the results of the survey show that Apple is considered by the industrial leaders as the manufacturer that will hold the largest market shares in the digital entertainment devices segment in the next four years. Apple will suffer tough competition from Samsung, which has been selected as the second most relevant player in the future Portuguese market segment of digital entertainment. The interviewees place Sony in third position, while Google and Microsoft (Nokia) close the top 5 ranking of the devices and consoles manufacturers with largest market shares in the Portuguese ecosystem in the forthcoming future. Apple will be, according to the opinion of the interviewed actors, the player with largest market share in the segment of digital entertainment devices and consoles in Portugal. Apple 25 Samsung 24 Sony 19 Google 10 Microsoft (Nokia) 9 T3.2 OEMs (digital entertainment devices and consoles) with largest market share in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample size: 14 interviewees answered to this question. The benchmark of the results obtained from different industrial sub-sectors shows a certain degree of homogeneity of opinions, regardless of the segment to which the actors belong. Nevertheless, it is worth highlighting the following differences: professionals from the network sector place Samsung (with 30% of weighted answers) as the main player in the next four years, they also consider Huawei (10% of weighted network sector answers) in the top 5 of devices and consoles manufacturers.
20 Business Models (4T) The business model for actors operating in devices sector is essentially based on the device itself, being it fixed or mobile, and its specific way to complement the offer: either by developing in-house a set of additional functionalities (Operating System, Access to Apps and Digital Contents, etc.) or by establishing strategic alliances with other players along the value chain, raising in this way the value of the terminal. For all these reasons the main objective of the devices manufacturers as well as of the other players of the value chain is to find the model that creates as much value as possible and maximizes value capture and retention, thus enhancing higher revenues. In this context, and looking at survey s results, the leaders of the industry consider the integration between the device and the app store/platform and Multi-device Operating Systems as the most relevant business models for devices (smartphones and tablets) OEMs in the next four years. The interviewees place in a second layer the integration between the device and the Operating System, and Razon Blade models based on low prices in order to increase sales of a complementary and consumable product. The ranking of top 5 selections is closed by revenue model based on advertising. Integration between the device and the app store/platform, Multi-device Operating Systems, and the integration between the device and the operating system are likely to be the most relevant business models for OEMs in the next four years, according to the opinion of the interviewed professionals. Integration between the device and the app store/ platform 16 Multi-device Operating Systems 16 Integration between the device and the Operating System 12 Razor Blade model (low prices in order to increase sales of a complementary and consumable product) 12 Revenue model based on advertising 11 T4 Most relevant business models for smartphones and tablets OEMs in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample size: 14 interviewees answered to this question. The benchmark of the results obtained from different industrial sub-sectors shows a certain degree of heterogeneity of opinions. In the devices sector the revenue model based on advertising is placed in first position with 42% of respondents, followed by multi-device operating systems and integration between the device and the Operating System (33% and 25% respectively). In the network sector, its professionals place revenue based on advertising, Razor Blade model and Other in the first position, with 16% of total weighted responses each one. Integration between inter-compatible smart devices is chosen by 11% of professionals in the network sector. The top 5 is closed by Dual or multiple Operating System devices and Integration between inter-compatible smart devices (9% each one).
21 Business Strategies (5T) Devices industry has been experiencing fast growth, representing an attractive business opportunity for different players. Unlike in the past, when traditional manufacturers were the only ones to produce and sell terminals, the appearance in the market of smartphones and tablets attracted other actors, whose core business was different. It is the case of the new global entrants like Apple, Google, and Amazon; network and technology vendors like Ericsson, Huawei, and ZTE; and even business applications providers like Microsoft. According to the opinion of the industry experts, focusing on emerging technologies such as AMOLED, retina display, quadcore CPUs, 64-bit software, flexible screens, fingerprints scanning, etc. is likely to be the most relevant business strategy for OEM to successfully compete in the Portuguese marketplace in the following four years. The second option selected by the interviewed actors is represented by offering a wide portfolio of OSs and applications, followed in the third and fourth position by alliances with mobile operators to strengthen their presence and the creation of extended value networks of device manufacturers, OSs providers, and mobile operators. The top five is closed by alliances with content providers, which represents 8% of total weighted responses. The industry experts outline focus on emerging technologies as the most relevant business strategy for OEMs in the next four years in the Portuguese Marketplace. Focus on emerging technologies (AMOLED, retina display, quad-core CPU s, 64-bit software, flexible screens, fingerprint scanning, etc.) 17 Offer a wide portfolio of OSs and applications 14 Aliances with mobile operators to strengthen their presence 13 Razor Blade model (low prices in order to increase sales of a complementary and consumable product) 13 Alliances with content providers 8 T5 Most valuable business strategies for smartphones and tablets OEMs in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample size: 14 interviewees answered to this question. Deepening the analysis into the different industrial segments, it has to be highlighted that the interviewees generally showed homogeneous opinions on the topic, regardless of the segment or industrial sector to which they belong to. Nevertheless, it is worth highlighting the introduction of focusing on high range devices (smartphones, tablets, phablets, wearables ) in the top 5 of the most valuable business strategies for smartphones and tablets OEMs in the next four years for the professionals in the devices and network sector.
22 Key Competitive Factors (6T) According to the results of the survey, technological innovation is outlined by 21% of the interviewees as the most critical Key Competitive Factor for devices (smartphone and tablets) manufacturers to compete in the Portuguese marketplace in the next four years. In second position the opinion leaders of the industry place, with 16% of total weighted answers, strong brand positioning as critical KCF for Original Equipment Manufacturers, followed in the third position of the ranking by alliances with multiple devices manufacturers to increase Operating System penetration. The top 5 ranking is closed by operational excellence and alliances between OEM and mobile operators (13% of total weighted responses each one), representing the last options within the most critical Key Competitive Factors to compete in the devices Portuguese market segment. Technological innovation is outlined by the actors of the industry as the most critical KCF for OEMs to successfully compete in the next four years in the Portuguese market segment of devices. Technilogical innovation 21 Strong brand positioning 16 Aliances with multiple devices manufacturers to increase Operating System penetration Aliances with mobile operators to strengthen their presence Operational excellence 13 T6 Most critical Key Competitive Factors for OEMs in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample size: 14 interviewees answered to this question. The benchmark of the results obtained from different industrial sub-sectors shows a certain degree of homogeneity of opinions, regardless the segment to which the actors belong. Nevertheless, it is worth highlighting the introduction of financial capacity in the top 5 of the most critical Key Competitive Factors for OEMs in the next four years for the professionals in the devices and network sector. Moreover it is remarkable that professionals in the services sector consider capabilities for the management of mergers and acquisitions as a top five KCF for OEMs, placing it in fourth position.
23 Investments (7T) As mentioned before, the traditional device manufacturers are not the only players offering devices and Operating Systems anymore: other players, whose core business was not directly related to the manufacturing of devices (i.e. Network and Technology Vendors, Business Applications Providers, etc.), are integrating vertically into this attractive area. As a consequence, internal competitiveness is rising, with players undertaking focused investments to develop and implement their strategies and to position themselves in the devices marketplace. In this context, the industry experts that participated to the survey consider that traditional devices manufacturers will invest in order to integrate forward in the value chain and get positions in services, applications and content. With the same weighted value (20% of total weighted responses) industry professionals believe that new global players will continue investing heavily to offer terminals with the latest technologies and advanced OSs. These two trends are the most relevant investments strategies likely to occur in the Portuguese devices sector in the next four years. In third place, according to the opinion of 14% of the interviewees, OSs, services and applications providers will invest to acquire devices manufacturers. The option of players from other areas of the macro-sector acquiring small manufacturers occupies the fourth position, while minor relevance has been given to Asian devices manufacturers investing in the development of their own OSs, which has been placed in the last position of the top 5 ranking by the industry leaders that answered to this question. The industry experts overall believe that traditional devices manufacturers will invest in order to integrate forward in the value chain and get positions in services, applications and content. With the same weighted value (20% of total interviewees) industry professionals believe that new global players will continue investing heavily to offer terminals with the latest technologies and advanced OSs. Traditional devices manufacturers will invest in order to integrate forward in the value chain and get positions in seervices, applications and content 20 New global players will continue investing heavily to offer terminals with the latest technologies and advanced OSs 20 OSs, services and applications providers will invest to acquire devices manufacturers 14 Players from other areas of the macro-sector will acquire small manufacturers) 9 Asian devices manufacturers will invest in the development of their own OSs 7 T7 Most relevant investment strategies for OEMs likely to occur in the next four years. Weighted scores normalized on base 100. Sample size: 14 interviewees answered to this question. Deepening the analysis into the different industrial segments, it has to be highlighted that the interviewees generally showed homogeneous opinions on the topic, regardless of the segment or industrial sector to which they belong to. Nevertheless, the results obtained from devices sector differs from the rest of the industry, where 42% of the professionals who answered this question consider the investment of application developers to develop in-house capabilities in order to offer their own devices and OSs, as the main investment strategy in the Portuguese market in the next four years.
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