Evolution of migration in Quebec

Transcription

1 Evolution of migration in Quebec Alain Bélanger and Éric Caron Malenfant Demography Division Statistics Canada September 26 1

2 Presentation outline Components of demographic growth Evolution of interprovincial migration Evolution of international migration Replacement migration (Canada) Characteristics of interprovincial migrants 2

3 Demographic growth in Canada: increasingly the result of migration 6 5 Natural growth Migration growth 4 (in thousands)

4 Natural growth falling even more rapidly in Quebec 1 8 Natural growth Migration growth 6 in thousands)

5 Summary of assumptions Number of assumptions Low assumption Average assumption High assumption Birth rate children per woman 1.5 children per woman 1.7 children per woman Male mortality years 81.9 years 82.6 years Female mortality years 86. years 86.6 years Immigration (rate) per thousand 7. per thousand 8.5 per thousand Emigration (rate) per thousand NPR/RE/PTA 1 NPR.: balance equals RE: 38% of annual emigrants PTA: balance equals 22, people Interprovincial migration 4 Center-West : based on West : based on Recent trends : based on 2-23 Average : average of West and Recent trends 5

6 Population of Quebec from 25 to 231, ISQ (reference scenario) and Statistics Canada 9, 8,5 Millions 8, 7,5 7, 6,5 ISQ Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4 Scenario 5 Scenario

7 Propensity to leave Quebec for another province is declining Per 1, Interprovincial departure rate, Quebec, Low growth Average - recent trends Average average Average - West Average - Center-West Strong growth 7

8 Rate of in-migrants to Quebec is also improving Per 1, Rate of interprovincial in-migrants, Quebec,

9 As a result, the internal migration balance reaches a new high in thousands Interprovincial migration balance, Quebec,

10 Number of immigrants also rising 6, International immigrants, Quebec, , 4, 3, 2, 1,

11 Little change in international emigration 12 International emigration, Quebec, in thousands

12 As a result, the international balance is rising 6 International migration balance, Quebec, in thousands

13 Number of immigrants in Quebec by category, , 25, Family Economic Refugees 2, 15, 1, 5,

14 Quebec receives fewer immigrants than represented by its demographic weight 25 Percentage of immigrants to Canada choosing Quebec,

15 Under all scenarios, the overall participation rate of the Canadian population aged 15 years and older falls substantially 7% 68% Observed Projected 66% 64% 62% 6% 58% 56% 54% Weak growth Recent situation Increasing activity Strong growth 52%

16 Replacement migration (Canada) Scenario Net immigration Weak growth 2, Average growth 27, Strong growth 34, No demographic decline 76, No decline in population , Constant ratio (15-64/65+) 3,455, 16

17 Interprovincial departure rate by age, Quebec

18 Migration deficit is larger among young adults Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by age group, and Net migration rate (per 1,)

19 Knowledge of French is an important factor Net immigration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by knowledge of official languages 1 Net migration rate (per 1,) English French English and French Neither 19

20 Another important factor: place of birth Net migration rate (per 1,) Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by place of birth Quebec Rest of Canada Outside Canada 2

21 Recent immigrants are very likely to leave Quebec Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by period of immigration Net migration rate (per 1,) Nonimmigrants Total immigrants Immigrated 6 to 1 years ago Immigrated 11 to 15 years ago Immigrated more than 15 years ago 21

22 Retention of people belonging to certain visible minority groups is difficult Whites Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by visible minority group Net migration rate (per 1,) Whites Latino-American Southeast Asian Arabic Black Chinese Phillipino Japanese Korean South Asian 22

23 The higher the level of education, the more negative the migration balance Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by highest level of education achieved Net migration rate (per 1,) High school or less Post-secondary, below BA University graduate 23

24 Migration deficit is greater for university graduates, regardless of mother tongue Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by mother tongue, Net migration rate (per 1,) Total Graduates French only Multiple Other(s) only English only 24

25 or place of birth Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by place or birth and university graduation, Net migration rate (per 1,) Total Graduates Quebec Rest of Canada Outside Canada 25

26 Results of a logistical regression (rating reports) Age Knowledge of official languages French 1. English 51.7 French and English 12.8 None 21. Place of birth Quebec 1. Rest of Canada 7. Outside Canada 2.4 Education High school or less.7 Non-graduates 1. Graduates

27 Summary (internal migration) Factors with a potentially positive impact on the interprovincial migration balance Ageing of the population Decrease in the population born in the rest of Canada Decrease in Anglophone population Factors with a potentially negative impact on interprovincial migration balance Increase in immigrated population Increase in education Increase in bilingualism 27

28 Summary (international migration)) Ageing of the population and retirement of boomers Workforce pressures Quebec s demographic weight 28

29 Questions? Consult the report or the CD-ROM on demographic projections Or contact us: Demography Division Statistics Canada (613)

30 Net migration rate between Quebec and the rest of Canada by mother tongue for and Net migration rate (per 1,) English (single response) French (single response) Other (single response) Multiple responses 3