Cloudy with a chance of mud-slinging: Word choices reveal voters impressions

Transcription

1 Feb. 18, 2016 Cloudy with a chance of mud-slinging: Word choices reveal voters impressions For further information, contact: Dr. Quentin Kidd, Director qkidd@cnu.edu Office (757) Wason Center for Public Policy Mobile (757) Rachel Bitecofer, Ph.D. rachel.bitecofer@cnu.edu Office (757) Wason Center for Public Policy 1

2 Cloudy with a chance of mud-slinging: Word choices reveal voters impressions In surveying Virginia voters about their preferences in the upcoming Super Tuesday presidential primaries, the Wason Center for Public Policy added an open-ended question designed to prompt top-of-mind impressions of each candidate. In addition to asking survey participants how likely they were to vote in the Republican or Democratic primaries on March 1, and for whom they would cast their ballot, the interviewers invited voters to say the first word that pops into your head regarding each of the six Republicans and two Democrats. The resulting word associations range from high praise to grim condemnation, with stops along the way for compliments, insults, job titles, political labels, vulgar slurs, fear and loathing and a bit of I don t know. To gauge the intensity of those associations, we used the Wordle software to generate word cloud visualizations based on how many times words were repeated. The more often voters used a word in response to a candidate s name, the more prominently it appears in that candidate s word cloud. The cloud on the front of this report blends the most frequent words from all of the responses about all of the candidates. Some candidates, such as Florida Senator Marco Rubio and Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders, have as few as two or three common terms voters use to describe them. For Rubio, voters key on his age and experience, with the most common word being young, followed by inexperienced. Virginia voters view Sanders through the lens of ideology and age, with socialist by far the dominant word used to describe him, followed by communist, and old. Other candidates were described with a longer list of terms that represent a more complicated picture in the minds of voters. Voters view retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson as smart and honest, but ultimately not experienced. The most common words for Carson are doctor, honest, and intelligent, followed by smart, inexperienced, and trustworthy. Hillary Clinton s word association list highlights concerns among voters about her honesty, with liar the most common word, followed by untrustworthy, and dishonest. A source of strength for Clinton is her experience as a U.S. Senator and Secretary of State, but experience comes in as only the fourth most common word, closely followed by several others that are much less flattering. Texas Senator Ted Cruz is associated with a range of words that suggests mixed views among voters. Conservative is the most common word, followed by scary, ok, good, untrustworthy, and intelligent. Not surprising given his pre-political celebrity status, words associated with Donald Trump reflect strong opinions on his personality and character, such as crazy, blowhard, idiot, and loud, arrogant, bully, and businessman. 2

3 Former Florida Governor Jeb Bush s word association list reflects his family primarily, but also how voters have viewed his performance on the campaign trail. The most common terms used to describe Bush are another Bush, followed by dynasty, family, and weak. Further down on the list are terms such as George Bush and even no more Bushes. Finally, Ohio Governor John Kasich s word association reflects his relatively unknown status among Virginia voters, but also his perceived moderate posture on the campaign trail. The most common term used to describe Kasich among Virginia voters is unknown, followed by don t know, moderate, Ohio, and no opinion. We recognize that the visualizations generated by these lists have their limitations. Even Wordle s inventor, Jonathan Feinberg, calls his creation a toy. But in addition to the fun that this toy may bring to the process of testing and evaluating voter preferences, the word clouds that follow reveal strengths and vulnerabilities each candidate brings to the campaign for president. Word association may not be a probing or carefully calibrated research tool, but there s not much nuance or ambiguity in words such as liar, crazy, socialist, or scary to sample just a few. Q4. Ok, I m going to read you several of those names again. This time, for each name that I read, please tell me the first word that pops into your head regarding that person. Ok, here is the first name. [NAMES ROTATED] Marco Rubio Bernie Sanders Ben Carson Hillary Clinton Ted Cruz Donald Trump John Kasich Jeb Bush 3

4 Donald Trump Marco Rubio 4

5 Ted Cruz Ben Carson 5

6 John Kasich Jeb Bush 6

7 Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders 7

8 Demographic Toplines EDUC: High school or less 14 Some college 20 Vocational or technical training 2 College graduate 41 Graduate study or more 22 Dk/ref (vol) 1 HISPANIC: Yes 3 No 97 RACE: Black or African American 19 White 72 Other 9 RELIG: Protestant 30 Christian (non-specific) (vol) 19 Catholic 17 Jewish 2 Other 16 None 14 Dk/ref (vol) 2 EVANGELICAL OR BORN AGAIN? Yes 33 No 96 Dk/ref (vol) 4 ATTEND SERVICES Weekly 34 Sometimes 18 Rarely 28 Never 18 Dk/ref (vol) 2 IDEOL: Strong liberal 6 Liberal 9 Moderate, leaning liberal 21 Moderate, leaning conservative 20 Conservative 23 Strong Conservative 12 Dk/ref (vol) 8 PARTYID: Republican 27 Independent lean Republican 17 Independent 15 Independent lean Democrat 14 Democrat 23 No preference/other party (vol) 3 Dk/ref (vol) 1 TEAPARTY: Support 19 Oppose 42 No view either way 37 Dk/ref (vol) 2 SEX: Male 49 Female 51 INCOME: Under $25,000 5 $25-$49, $50-$74, $75-$99, $100,000-$149, Over $150, DK/ref (vol) 10 AGE: & older 43 REGION: Northern Virginia 33 Richmond/Central 21 Hampton Roads 24 South/Southwest 22 How the survey was conducted: The results of this poll are based on 735 interviews of registered Virginia voters, including 408 on landline and 327 on cell phone, conducted Feb. 3-14, The response rate (AAPOR RRI Standard Definition) for the survey was 25%. Five callbacks were employed in the fielding process. Live calling was conducted by trained interviewers at the Wason Center for Public Policy Survey Research Lab at Christopher Newport University. The data reported here are weighted using an iterative weighting process on sex, age, race and region of residence to reflect as closely as possible the demographic composition of registered voters in Virginia. The survey was designed by Dr. Quentin Kidd of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University. 8