How to compare climate impacts of transport
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- Leonard Wiggins
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1 How to compare climate impacts of transport J. Fuglestvedt Thanks to Marianne Lund, Jens Borken-Kleefeld Kleefeld, Keith Shine, and Terje Berntsen Transport Emissions: The Climate Challenge Results from IP QUANTIFY and SSA ATTICA Brussels, 24 June 2010
2 Typical questions: How large is the climate impact of transport? Should I go by car, bus, plane, ship..? what is best for climate? Difficult questions to answer What does these questions really mean? Need to specify several things
3 Comparing climate impacts of transportation Challenges: Broad mix of substances and physical / chemical processes Warming and cooling effects Large span in lifetimes (from < hours to centuries) Effects depend on location of emissions. Contributions to climate change differ strongly after the time of emissions.
4 measures should be cost-effective and cover all relevant sources, sinks and reservoirs Kyoto Protocol: made this operational by its multi-gas approach Often called basket approach CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, HFCs, PFCs, SF 6 Transportation goes beyond the Kyoto basket NOx, SO 2, CO, VOC, H 2 O, contrails, cirrus
5 Design of analysis of climate impacts of transport Time frames emissions responses Evaluation year Spatial dimension Geographical dependence emissions responses emissio ons Model start Attribution start Attribution end Boundaries of the analysis e.g. well-to-wheel vs tank-to-wheel related activities Which components should be included? time Impact parameter - Radiative forcing -temperature - sea level rise Normalization by transport work (passenger-km or tonn-km)
6 Design of analysis of climate impacts of transport Time frames emissions responses Evaluation year Spatial dimension Geographical dependence emissions responses emissio ons Model start Attribution start Attribution end Boundaries of the analysis e.g. well-to-wheel vs tank-to-wheel related activities Which components should be included? time Impact parameter - Radiative forcing -temperature - sea level rise Normalization by transport work (passenger-km or tonn-km)
7 Choice of climate impact Temp
8 But climate impacts of transport should be given per transport work Specific climate impact = Climate impact / transport work What is an adequate denominator? Climate impact / person-km Climate impact / ton-km Climate impact / passenger-hour Climate impact / value-km Climate impact / volume km More on this in presentation by Jens Borken-Kleefeld
9 Time frames Effects of: Historical emissions (as presented by Keith Shine) Current annual emissions Emissions sustained for a period (e.g. lifetime of a car) Future emissions (scenarios)
10 Timeframe: Historical Total transport: 10% of man-made warming in 2000 Skeie et al., 2009
11 Current global emissions - one year Berntsen and Fuglestvedt, 2008
12 Current global emissions selected time horizons Berntsen and Fuglestvedt, 2008
13 Current emissions - kept constant Berntsen and Fuglestvedt, 2008
14 Future scenarios Emissions IPCC SRES storylines New technology Fuel mix Emission factors Regional developments CO 2 Borken et al., 2009; Uherek et al., 2009; Skeie et al., 2009 NOx SO 2
15 Future scenarios: Change in global mean surface temperature Total transport 2000: ~ 10% 2100: 10-20% By sector in 2100 Road: 5-12% Aviation: 4-8% Skeie et al., 2009
16 Skeie et al., 2009
17 METRICS simple measures to quantify impacts of emissions
18 strong memory (often misunderstood; no climate response included) Large differences for short-lived components (CH 4, BC.)
19 AVIATION: Emissions x Metric = CO 2 equivalents (Tg / yr) CO2 Nox low Nox high H2O SO4 BC GWP(20) GWP(100) GTP(20) GTP(100) CT AIC Based on Lee et al., 2009 (ATTICA)
20 Shipping: Emissions x Metric = CO 2 equivalents (Tg / yr) 2000 CO 2 eq (shipping) Tg CO 2 eq CO2 SO2 dir SO2 tot NOx GWP100 GTP20 GTP100 Based on Eyring et al., 2009 (ATTICA)
21 Conclusions Many different perspectives need to clarify the questions On a global scale: Historically: Road transport > aviation >> train Shipping: cooling Future: Shipping: Switches from cooling to warming Road transport: Dominating Aviation: potentially strong short-lived effects, but large uncertainties Alternative perspective: impact per transport work (next presentation) Emission metrics are useful for: - Climate protocols and emission trading - Climate policy assessments, related effects and trade-offs GTP and GWP are fundamentally different One single time horizon gives a partial picture
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