Conference Call Presentation

Transcription

1 Telecom Argentina 4Q15 EarningsRelease Conference Call Presentation

2 Disclaimer This presentation is based on audited financial statements and may include statements that could constitute forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to, the Company s expectations for its future performance, revenues, income, earnings per share, capital expenditures, dividends, liquidity and capital structure; the impact of the emergency laws enacted by the Argentine government; and the impact of rate changes and competition on the Company s future financial performance. Forward-looking statements may be identified by words such as believes, expects, anticipates, projects, intends, should, seeks, estimates, future or other similar expressions. Forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could significantly affect the Company s expected results. The risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to, uncertainties concerning the impact of the emergency laws enacted by the Argentine government which have resulted in the repeal of Argentina s convertibility law, the devaluation of the peso, restrictions on the ability to exchange pesos into foreign currencies, the adoption of a restrictive currency transfer policy, the pesification of tariffs charged for public services, the elimination of indexes to adjust rates charged for public services and the executive branch announcement to renegotiate the terms of the concessions granted to public service providers, including Telecom. Due to extensive and rapid changes in laws and economic and business conditions in Argentina, it is difficult to predict the impact of these changes on the Company s financial condition. Other factors may include, but are not limited to, the evolution of the economy in Argentina, growing inflationary pressure and reduction in consumer spending and the outcome of certain legal proceedings. Readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on forward-looking statements, which speak only as the date of this document. The Company undertakes no obligation to release publicly the results of any revisions to forward-looking statements which may be made to reflect events and circumstances after the date of this presentation, including, without limitation, changes in the Company s business or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events. Information included in this presentation is unaudited and may not coincide with that included in the financial statements of the Company, due to rounding, reclassification matters, and other reasons. Readers are encouraged to consult the Company s Annual Report and Form 20-F as well as periodic filings made on Form 6-K, which are filed with or furnished to the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and the Argentine Comisión Nacional de Valores. 1

3 Agenda Market Overview Business Highlights Financials Q&A 2

4 Macro: a new administration in office that is focused the normalization of the economy Central Bank Reserves Central Bank Reserves (Billion U$S) % 4.3% Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q : Repo with International Investment Banks foru$s 5BN. Household consumption -0.5% 0.8% 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% Q15 2Q15 3Q15e 4Q15e As of December 2015, international reserves showed a decrease vs 2014, mainly due to CB s interventions to offset further depreciations of the exchange rate and payments of sovereign debt. Nonetheless, a positive trend was observed after the new administration was in offices and the FX market controls were eliminated. Overall household consumption has maintained a slight positive performance, but far from high levels reached in previous years. It is expected that raises in utilities tariffs during 2016 would impact negatively in average consumption. FX Rate CPI(YoY) Consumer Price Index (GCBA) 38.0% 26.6% 28.0% 16.5% % 24.0% 26.9% Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 On Dec-15, with the lifting of official FX markets controls, the peso suffered a significant depreciation(40%) closing 2015 at AR$ 13 per USD. The CPI Index was not published for YE15, after announcing a deep revision in the process and mechanisms implemented by INDEC. As guidance, the authorities suggested that other indexes published by provincial entities, i.e. the Buenos Aires City and San Luis, should be observed. Main measures that allowed exchange rate unification: Lifting of restrictions on FX markets. Reduction or elimination of export taxes for commodities and industrial products. Agreements with exporters to sell inventories of grain. Devaluation & new floating exchange rate regime. Economic activity per sector Total Construction Electricity, gas & water Public Admin & Defense Social services & Healthcare Agriculture Retail & Wholesale commerce Minery Real Estate Manufacturer Industry Financial interm. Transport & Communications Trade balance continued to decrease in 4Q15, as exports accumulated 23 months of contraction (according to last available data). The economic activity closed the year with a slow and fragile recovery, mainly due to notorious improvements in Construction, public administration and utilities. Industrial production Index (IPI) showed a positive trend, but at a much lower and volatile pace than therestoftheeconomy.

5 Agenda Market Overview Business Highlights Financials Q&A 4

6 Highlights BUSINESS Mobile Sustained growth driven by Data& Internet Solidpositioninvaluesegments:postpaidgrossadds+500ksubsin4Q15,6%YoY Important delivery of handsets during 4Q15: quantities increase by 18% vs 4Q14. LTE device sell-out >85% Quick adoption of Data Centric offers(clients with new plans represent 25% of postpaid subs in FY15) Successful 4G rollout continues: -2 million customers are using our 4G platform - Data consumption boost(146% higher than non-4g clients average consumption) Browsing ARPU growing at 67% pace enhanced by increased data usage(+10% users, +54% usage) Launchof4GformassmarketinParaguay Fixed Broadband Expanding position inkey segments 10Mbsubs=27%ofCBvs.16%in4Q14-ARPU+36%vs.4Q14.TotalBBAccesses+2%vs.4Q14 FINANCIALS Service Revenues growth of 22%, mainly driven by: - Mobile Internet in Argentina (+88%) - Fixed Broadband(+40%) EBITDA increased by +25% with a positive effect in margins, reaching a 27% profitability in a challenging scenario, reverting the historical trend LTM FCF generation of AR$ 192MM, after paying AR$ 804 MM in cash dividends and AR$ 2,256 MM in Spectrum in Argentina. NFP(debt) reaches AR$ 2.3 Bn, mostly in local currency Sound hedging strategy with +70% FX exposure coverage, partially offsetting impact of FX depreciation in YE15 5

7 New Regulatory Framework: merger of telco and media and new regulatory entity MAIN AUTHORITIES (Former Ministry of Federal Planning and Secretary of Communications) MINISTRY OF COMMUNICATIONS REGULATION Decree 267/15 AMENDS Provides ENACOM creation. Modifies certain aspects of Law , but maintains the free pricing criteria. Has to be approved by Legislative Power during Ordinary Sessions of 2016 to fully enforce its resolutions. ARGENTINA DIGITAL LAW LAWN It was enacted as of 12/19/2014 Main regulation - Declares of public Interest the development of ICT services Main changes introduced by Decree 267/15: Incorporates Pay TV (excluding Satellite TV) asanict (1) service. The decree has set certain restrictions to telcos to provide multimedia convergent offers. Changes in licencing restrictions for Media. Simplification of approval process for changes in ownerships of licenses. Satellite TV providers can not offer Broadband. ENACOM (National Communications Entity) (merges functions of both former agencies AFTIC (Telcos) and AFSCA (media) (1) Information and Communication Technologies ENACOM is a new regulatory agency with authority over media and telecommunications, that has a President appointed by the Executive Power and a Board of Directors composed by 6 directors, of which 3 are appointed by the Executive Power and 3 by Congress. 6

8 Group Revenues: focus on mix and trend. Strong revenue performance in 4Q15 AR$, Million Group Revenue Mix Retail Fixed Voice BB and fixed data 9% 8% 14% 16% Retail Fixed Voice +16% 3,304 2, % % % % 745 FY14 FY15 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q Retail Mobile Wholesale Handsets Paraguay Regulated Rev % on Total Rev 49% 50% 14% 9% 12% 7% 15% 15% 4% 4% FY14 FY15 7.3% 7.0% Broadband & Fixed Data +34% 6,330 4,724 1,767 35% 1,316 1,649 1,222 35% 1,534 1,141 34% 1,045 32% 1,380 FY14 FY15 Retail Mobile +25% 20,374 16,331 24% 5,606 4,515 26% 5,207 4,119 3,921 23% 4,826 3,776 25% 4,735 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q Internet Mobile +88% 89% 3,335 1,041 83% % % FY14 6,254 1,971 1,594 1,501 1,188 FY15 4Q 3Q 2Q 1Q FY14 FY15 7

9 Fixed UBB accesses increased significantly in 4Q15 propped by competitive offer BB Accesses Thousand of broadband accesses, thousand of net adds +43k; +2% AR$/Month BB ARPU & Churn +38% Mb subs. 1,771 1,768 1,786 1,804 1,814 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 ~2x +44k; +10% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Monthly Churn ARPU (AR$) IFRS Million of AR$ Data / ICT Revenues +21% 10Mb % of CB Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 16% 19% 22% 25% 27% +53% +31% 1,780 1, FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 8

10 Fixed ARBU sustained thru flat pricing + price adjustment in the business monthly fee Lines in Service Thousand of lines 4,093 4,077 4,064 4,054 4,043 ARBU AR$/Month In AR$ +27% Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Drivers of ARBU increase: Market Share* 46.4% 46.5% 46.5% 46.5% 46.5% Monthly Fee Tariff increases for Business Clients (17% ofcb). The process of the tariff adjustment enabled by the Argentine Digital Law has started. Decree 267/15 maintains and simplifies the original criteria for pricing adjustments. Continous increase in penetration of packs of services: 80% of customer base. *Market share calculated based on Company estimates 9

11 Mobile: capturing growth through increased data penetration and revenue securization Customer Base (Mill) Revenue Mix Mobile services revenue mix Postpaid Bundle Prepaid 40% 40% 42% 32% Prepaid Q Q15 PxQ FY14 FY15 Postpaid FY14 FY15 18% FY14 Browsing Voice 28% FY15 SMS + Content POSTPAID GROSS ADDS Data penetration, Monthly unique users in million Data Usage MBOU/month ARPU Browsing AR$/month 10% +54% +67% +500K ~20% on 4G network Q15 4Q15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 1 Includes Dongles 10

12 Mobile: monetizing through Data Centric Plans Data Centric Subs 25% of the total Postpaid are Data Centric Non Data Centric Data Centric +350% 33% 67% Plans 18% of the resets of data quotas came from subs with Data Centric plans During December 2015 revenues coming sep-15 dec-15 Migrations Adds from data quotas resetting represented 6% of the Total Data Revenues of 4Q15 Transformation is accelerating Focus Product Portfolio Offering Lever Connectivity concept Based on Platforms Enabling platform for customer preference 45% 35% 25% FY2013 FY2014 FY2015 Browsing & Content Voice As a percentage of Service Revenues Addressing opportunities Consumer behavior changing fast to data 11

13 Mobile Focus on 4G Main cities with 4G coverage Sell Out LTE Devices Average ARPU 4G ARPU* 5% 14% +85% Non LTE LTE Apr/May Jul/Aug Apr/May Jul/Aug 56 56%of ofthe total traffic is from video sites 1.3Gb is the average data consumption ( % higher than non- 4G clients) Network Rollout As of today more than 1400 sites installed. (+85% of the total are modernized or new sites). Presence in more than 335 locations in 18 provinces. Offering higher speed and capacity. Integrated and modernized 2G/3G/4G network with state-of-the-art technology. * Corresponds to total ARPU of customers using only 4G technology 12 4G Customers In million x FY14 FY15 4G early adoption ARG PER CHI BRA BOL COL URU MEX Number of quarters to achieve 2% of the subscriber base

14 Capex Infraestructure as a key enabler Capex Evolution Million of AR$ +13% 8, % 3,530 10,100 2,256 4,851 5, % 7,844 FY13 FY14 FY15 % Revenues 18% 27% 25% Spectrum Capex Breakdown Mobile Sites FTTx +70% +52% FY14 FY15 FY14 FY15 25% 24% 12% 13% 26% Network Achievements During 2015 the Company achieved the fastest deployment of an integrated and modernized AWS MHZ 4G network in Latam. Mobile Access Fixed Access Main targets: Core & Infraestruct * IT Others (Excludes spectrum) Personal is the only operator in Argentina that has developed an infrastructure with dual bands in all its 4G sites (700 MHz + AWS), while it is the first in Latam to build a fully new multitecnological network(2g/3g/4g). Competitive network Improved customer experience Focuson4G More than 5,000 Km of fiber for access network were deployed. 2G/3Gevolution+migration Note: * Core & infrastructure refers to network related capex, including quality and innovation capex. 13

15 Personal : Only operator in Latam that has built a fullynew multi-tecnologicaltecnological network (2G/3G/4G) Before upgrade 2G & 3G After upgrade 2G / 3G / 4G Technologyand shelter ocupation 2G 850 2G G 1900 Multi-standard equipment(sdr) Spectrum Usage 42,5 MHz (850 and 1900 Bands) 100 MHz (700, 850, 1900 and AWS Bands) Sectors 3 sectors per site 6 sectors per site Energy Autonomy 2 hs. 4 hs. Carrier Aggregation Telecom Personal has tested the simultaneous use of 4G bands (Carrier Aggregation) and registered sustained speeds up to 175 Mbps, achieving the highest measurement recorded so far in the country. Simultaneous use of the frequency bands 1700/ 2100Mhz(AWS) and 700 MHz(APT) will provide better coverage and higher speeds, enhancing the overall browsing experience. 14

16 Agenda Market Overview Business Highlights Financials Q&A 15

17 TEO Group: Consolidated Results ServiceRevgrowthin Argentina (Yoy) 20% 22% 21% 24% 24% Handset Results- Mobile in Argentina Handsets Revenues Costs (in million of AR$) Before capitalization of SAC & SRC 900 1, FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 Revenues IFRS, Million of AR$, Percentage EBITDA IFRS, Million of AR$, Percentage 10,866 40, % +21% 33,341 8,702 3, % +30% 11, % 4Q +23% +15% 2, % 9, % 10,094 8,598 22,117 27, % 8,119 9,624 7, % 8,872 3Q 2,067 2Q 7,564 6,570 2, % 2,529 2,501 2Q +25% 1Q 2, % 2,634 1Q 4Q 3Q Regulated Revenues FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 10% 8% 7% 7% FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 EBITDA Mg 30% 28% 26% 27% Lower quantity of handsets sold (-23% YoY vs FY14) due to import limitations in Argentina 16

18 TEO Group: Consolidated costs and EBITDA evolution EBITDA FY14 FY15 IFRS, Million of AR$ 6,199 8, ,164; +25% 1, ,866 YoY Variation 22% 19% 11% 5% 30% 20% 22% 18% 28% EBITDA FY14 Ss. Revenues & other incomes Handsets Sales Handsets Costs ITX Costs Labor Costs Taxes Other Marketing & Sales Fees for services, maint. and materials Others* EBITDA FY15 EBITDA Margin FY % +0.9% -1.1% +0.2% 0.0% +0.3% -0.5% 26.8% FY15 As % of Revenues 11% 5% 18% 10% 10% 10% 9% * Others includes bad debt expenses, provisions, VAS costs and others 17

19 TEO Group: Consolidated Results 18 Operating Income IFRS, Million of AR$, Percentage Net Income attributable to Telecom IFRS, Million of AR$, Percentage +14% +14% 6,229 5,443 3,673-7% 1,770 4Q +11% 1,600 3,403 1,029-37% % 1,311 3Q 801 1, % 19% 4Q 3Q 3,966 4,518 1, % 1,468 2Q 2,685 3, % 928 2Q 1, % 1,680 1Q +16% 889 1,028 1Q FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 O. Income Margin Net Income Margin 18% 17% 16% 15% 12% 12% 11% 8% 18

20 TEO Group: Net Income Evolution Period D & A 3G/4G Spectrum Total Amortization FY14 3, ,243 FY15 4, ,438 3,729 2,164 1,378 1,355 in million of AR$ FY14 FY15 Net Interests $ 265 -$ 526 Gains on Mutual Funds & $ 289 other inv. $ 601 FX results -$ 275 -$ 1,140 Results on NDF $ 0 $ 0 Others -$ 26 -$ 37 Total $ 253 -$ 1, ,435 Net Income FY14* EBITDA D&A, Results on disposal of PP&E and write-down of PP&E Net Financial Results Income Tax Expense Net Income FY15* Mitigated Impact Full effect of Δ FX without hedging measures and WK management would have been: ~AR$ -1,880 MM HEDGING POSITION PRIOR TO AR$ DEVALUATION Net Accounts Payable & Debt FX Cash U$S Dollar & DollarLink Bonds NDF Exposure as of Nov-15 Actions taken to limit FX impact: Prepayments of accounts payables denominated in foreign currency Anticipated capex denominated in foreign currency ΔAR$ 1,100 MM * Total Net Income includes the part attributable to Telecom and the non-controlling interest 19

21 TEO Group: FCF, Net FinancialPosition & Financing IFRS, Million of AR$ -Last 12 months Free Cash Flow Operating free Cash Flow 745 1,823 1,631 2, ,277 10,866 7,844 1,199 EBITDA Capex Δ WK & others Net Financial Position FY14 (Net Cash) Operating Free Cash Flow 1 Taxes Free Cash Flow = 192 Spectrum Payment Net Interest & Others FX Variations 849 Dividend Payments 2 Net Financial Position FY15 (Net Debt) Telecom Personal s Notes OnDecember10 th 2015,TelecomPersonalsuccessfullycompletedtheissuanceprocessoftwoseriesofNotesforatotalnominal value of AR$720.5 million: $ MM SERIES I 18-monthbulletmaturity,atacompositeinterestrate(fixedrateof28.5%uptothe6thmonth andfloatingratefromthe7thmonth,badlarrate+375bps) $ MM SERIES II 36-month bullet maturity, at a composite interest rate (fixed rate of 28.75% up to the 9th monthandfloatingratefromthe10thmonth,badlarrate+400bps) NoteS: (1) OFCF: Operating Free Cash Flow before Taxes (2) Includes $45 Million related to Nucleo dividend payments to third parties, net of income tax 20

22 Agenda Market Overview Business Highlights Financials Q&A 21